Covid-19

[SonofPog]

Two of the biggest hotspots are South Wales and Hampshire. I’m no expert but I don’t remember either being known for their big Muslim populations.

There are 876 confirmed cases in Hampshire, out of a local population of 1,376,316
There are 726 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053

Total confirmed cases are 47,806

Just wondering where did you get this information that Hampshire is a hotspot?

[martin_p]

There are 876 confirmed cases in Hampshire, out of a local population of 1,376,316
There are 726 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053

Total confirmed cases are 47,806

Just wondering where did you get this information that Hampshire is a hotspot?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.the ... -your-area

Hampshire 4th on the list by local authority.

[SonofPog]

Hmm figures aren't loading for me to i'll take your word for it. Its hardly a Lombardy situation though. We hopefully is good for the country. Spread out quite a bit

[thatdberight]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.the ... -your-area

Hampshire 4th on the list by local authority.

It's the largest 'proper' county by population. Would be a surprise if it wasn't up there considering London has been split up.

[martin_p]

It's the largest 'proper' county by population. Would be a surprise if it wasn't up there considering London has been split up.

All I’m doing is showing that ‘all the hotspots have big Muslim populations’ isn’t true.

[Bordeauxclaret]

PM admitted to hospital for tests.

That doesn’t sound good.

[Inchy]

PM admitted to hospital for tests.

That doesn’t sound good.

I said the other day it doesn’t look good because how quiet he has been.

Boris going into hospital will be a last resort. He will have expert medical care and possibly 02 at home.


I hope he’s alright

[FactualFrank]

PM admitted to hospital for tests.

That doesn’t sound good.

Blimey, not good at all. The news say it's precautionary but even so.

[Burnley1989]

It is always a worry when your leader is taken ill, weather you support him or not. Fingers crossed for Boris

[Zlatan]

I can’t stand Boris, didn’t vote for him, didn’t agree too much with his approach at times, but I wish him well and hope he gets better soon.

[Bfcboyo]

Has anybody seen any evidence of cases confirmed from residents of either Burnley or Pendle?

All the stats pages say not but people all seem to have a story about a friend of a friend.

[Burnley1989]

Has anybody seen any evidence of cases confirmed from residents of either Burnley or Pendle?

All the stats pages say not but people all seem to have a story about a friend of a friend.

My immediate family member works in ICU in Blackburn & Preston and said it’s full or Corona or suspected Corona. I’ve never heard her speak they way she did, expect a huge shift in numbers in the local area over the next few weeks

[mdd2]

As Inchy states that Boris is in hospital suggests he needs oxygen, why else would he need to be there. If he needs oxygen his course is looking like the bad ones-been ill for as long as Hancock who is up and running again. Boris has not shaken it off and would seem to be getting worse unless his doctors are panicking. If he needs ventilating then data suggest that is not good for him. Lets hope a few days of O2 gets him around the corner and improving, but i won't hold my breath (sorry not meant to be funny)

[CombatClaret]

I think Boris is in hospital because his symptoms haven't gone away for 10 days and he's the Prime Minister.

[Paul Waine]

Atalanta 4 v 1 Valencia, 19th Feb, 2020.

This game in Milan really was a matter of life and death, say experts
How Atalanta v Valencia spread coronavirus in Italy and Spain

Seen this report in the (very short) Sports section of S.Times. (Not seen it posted on this mb).

It's the link between football and coronavirus.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/526a ... a7c0adb0fc

I've picked out a few key sentences.

"On February 19, they played the first European Cup knockout match of their 113-year history, hosting Valencia. A fairytale story: Atalanta operate on a budget that, in England’s economic hierarchy, would place them in the bottom half of the Championship.

Enzo Donina, 69,..... was an Atalanta player when they were promoted to Serie A in 1970, and more recently a club scout during the era when club’s excellent talent-spotting began to make Atalanta unusually profitable in the transfer market. Donina died on March 19 of a Covid-19-related illness. Barely had the club put together what they could to mark his passing, they were mourning Zacaria Cometti, the goalkeeper from their 1963 Coppa Italia victory. Cometti had the virus too, as did more than 2,290 people who have died in Bergamo, the European epicentre of Covid-19.

As hospitals buckle, and army vehicles roll in to export coffins the cemeteries no longer have space for, Bergamo seeks explanations for how and why it became “the Wuhan of Italy”. More and more diagnoses reach back to Atalanta 4 Valencia 1 on February 19.
“That match was a loudhailer for spreading the coronavirus infection,” believes Professor Francesco Le Foche, an immunologist in the infectious diseases centre at Rome’s Policlinico Umberto I. “A biological timebomb,” said mayor Gori

A vast cavalcade set off to Milan. Some 43,000 packed into buses and cars, and many of them spent part of the journey cheek by jowl on the Milan metro. About 2,300 travelled from Valencia. Those who flew into Orio al Serio airport recall that gowned medical staff took the temperatures of disembarking passengers. It was precautionary. Only three coronavirus cases had been registered in Italy by February 19.

In Valencia, meanwhile, the journalist and broadcaster Kike Mateu had taken ill. He had been at the game, and after making public the diagnosis, found himself dubbed Spain’s “Patient Zero”.
By the time Mateu was released from hospital after 25 days of treatment, Spain had more than 100,000 patients — people registered as infected — and the country’s terrible toll of fatalities was climbing, like Italy’s, towards 10,000.

“I believe that match played a significant part in spreading the virus,” Walter Ricciardi, the president of Italy’s National Health Institute, said. “A third of Bergamo’s population went to the stadium: it is not a coincidence if Bergamo is the city most affected, and if people in Valencia had a role in the spread of the virus in Spain.” More than one in three of Valencia’s playing and coaching staff have tested positive for the virus since the team returned from Milan.

So Atalanta 4 Valencia 1 remains set in its eerie aspic, at once the greatest night in a club’s history and a medical exhibit. It is, as the journalist Julian Burgos put it, “a match stigmatised for all time”. The stigma develops its own contagion. Liverpool-Atletico Madrid is under increasing scrutiny for having gone ahead fully three weeks after Atalanta-Valencia, in front of 54,000, including 3,000 Atletico fans who were by then barred from Liga games because Spain’s authorities had recognised the danger of infection in crowds. That Anfield night looks more and more conspicuous, the last big match that would not close its gates when everywhere else they were preparing to lock them.

[tim_noone]

Read this a while back. It triggered a big surge in lombardy and Spain.

[paulatky]

That's 3 different numbers you've quoted me as saying, that's the trouble with lying, you need a good memory.
For the 10th time I asked you, how you knew it hadn't peaked, I didn't say it had... But if it makes you happy thinking you've got one over on somebody you carry on

It was blindingly obvious to anyone with even half a brain that when you said nobody knows if it had peaked or not, that it definitely hadnt peaked.
As the health minister has said many times its a case of simple maths

[HunterST_BFC]

Far too much point scoring on this thread.

Maybe a readback of this is due,

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... -live-news

[Bfcboyo]

My immediate family member works in ICU in Blackburn & Preston and said it’s full or Corona or suspected Corona. I’ve never heard her speak they way she did, expect a huge shift in numbers in the local area over the next few weeks

With the rules in place should it really be able to get across to Burnley and Pendle and spread or will we be lucky and miss it?

The lockdown isn't going to stop until every last new case is all but gone with entire borough's still untouched it would be too risky to lift any lock down restrictions. Based on this I am going to predict restrictions being lifted in August /September.

Oh dear!

[thatdberight]

Now a tiger's got it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

Sadly our resident "That couldn't happen" expert has seen sense and retired from this conversation or he might have been interested.

[thatdberight]

Based on this I am going to predict restrictions being lifted in August /September

You can only do what the population wants. I doubt 6 months lockdown will be acceptable, rightly or wrongly.

[atlantalad]

With the rules in place should it really be able to get across to Burnley and Pendle and spread or will we be lucky and miss it?

According to Evergreen coronavirus app it is already prevalent in the Burnley area:

" Most areas showed that more than 90 percent of people who may have coronavirus are keeping to lockdown rules, but some dipped lower.

Middlesbrough showed that 25 per cent of people with symptoms have left the house. Around 18 per cent of people in Hertfordshire and Burnley have done the same ".

There are some real anti-social dix out there. Either that or their just plain dumb in which case Darwinian mechanism with run its natural course.

I can look over the valley at night from my house and still see plenty of cars ( headlights) moving along A roads at 11:30 at night. What are those people up to?

[CombatClaret]

UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths

EU3j_W3XkAEDuiS.jpg (150.1 KiB) Viewed 2680 times

[Paul Waine]

UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths

EU3j_W3XkAEDuiS.jpg

Interesting, I'd not noticed before that FT was using a 7 day rolling average. It will smooth out the daily variations. It will also slow the perception of the flattening of the curve.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Austria are set to loosen their lockdown and are set to let small shops reopen from 14th April followed by the rest on 1st May.

[ClaretCliffofDover]

Apologies if this iplayer link has been posted before - it's a bbc4 programme made about two years ago that predicted what would happen in the next pandemic ~ https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0 ... gS6pTeiBiM

[atlantalad]

Not a fan of these data curves since data can easily be manipulated to prove a point. As they say: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I have seen several log graphs that seem to have arbitrary start points. For instance if take days since 100 mortalities then this can affect the upward trajectory. In my mind 100 mortalities gives a more accurate start point - reason : when do we know the precise dates for when there were 3, 5, or 10 mortalities.

[Lord Rothbury]

The cavalier attitude of Sweden towards the virus seems to have been the wrong one. Today's number of deaths well up on yesterday. Going off the graph posted earlier how much credence can be placed on the line Iran are showing.

[android]

UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths

EU3j_W3XkAEDuiS.jpg

I think the FT chart is not including all the French deaths. I am not suggesting they are fiddling the figures. There is a genuine difficulty, including in any chart showing daily deaths, deaths which occur outside hospitals when they are reported in bulk covering several weeks. The French recently did this and I think we have started to do it but maybe only on a weekly basis.

Our data seems to have been very similar to France (with similar total population) with a 4 or 5 days lag. For whatever reason, the FT seems to have been keen to keep France out of its headlines and is more keen to play up the US and UK figures. The FT does seem to have played around with starting points and so on with which chart to lead with to support this narrative. For this reason, I prefer Ed Conway of Sky News as a source for charts.

[CombatClaret]

Interesting, I'd not noticed before that FT was using a 7 day rolling average. It will smooth out the daily variations. It will also slow the perception of the flattening of the curve.

I think a week is a good time period to average, might delay the perception of the curve flattening by a two or three days but I think that outweighs the random variations the numbers throw up which might lead to false conclusions.

[CombatClaret]

Not a fan of these data curves since data can easily be manipulated to prove a point. As they say: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I have seen several log graphs that seem to have arbitrary start points. For instance if take days since 100 mortalities then this can affect the upward trajectory. In my mind 100 mortalities gives a more accurate start point - reason : when do we know the precise dates for when there were 3, 5, or 10 mortalities.

No starting point will be 100% accurate, I do think stating smaller is more helpful because of the exponential nature of the virus.
If for example you assume there's anything from double to 10 times more cases out there than official records show, then starting at a higher number starts you from place with far more uncertainty making the data less reliable.

[jackmiggins]

Truth is that, until this virus has spread across the whole world, international, national and local travel and ‘lockdown’ release will have to be closely scrutinized. I dread to think what is going to happen in the rest of Asia, the Americas and Africa in the next few months. I strongly doubt that I’ll feel comfortable until a vaccine is freely available.

[CombatClaret]

I think the FT chart is not including all the French deaths. I am not suggesting they are fiddling the figures. There is a genuine difficulty, including in any chart showing daily deaths, deaths which occur outside hospitals when they are reported in bulk covering several weeks. The French recently did this and I think we have started to do it but maybe only on a weekly basis.

Our data seems to have been very similar to France (with similar total population) with a 4 or 5 days lag. For whatever reason, the FT seems to have been keen to keep France out of its headlines and is more keen to play up the US and UK figures. The FT does seem to have played around with starting points and so on with which chart to lead with to support this narrative. For this reason, I prefer Ed Conway of Sky News as a source for charts.

The FT chart doesn't use all UK deaths either.
We won't be able to get a sense of total deaths including ones outside of hospitals for a long time so since we need to know how the virus is doing now then we use these figures as they are easy to record and can be updated daily.

I should point out FT are releasing half a dozen different types of graph a day, so while yes the DAILY death chart posted above France looks like it's doing very well but looks about the same in the CUMULATIVE chart. But since right now most people want to know how we are doing day-to-day the daily chart seems most relevant to see who is still on the up (eg: UK & UK) and who is starting to show a drop off so we might know how long it takes.

EU3kQRIXsAA8CWS.jpg (176.78 KiB) Viewed 2515 times

[jackmiggins]

Btw - stay safe everyone. This really isn’t as bad as it could be. Just look at the living standards throughout the world, refugee camps etc. In perspective, I had cheese a biscuits last night as a snack. These people don’t even have fresh water.

[RingoMcCartney]

Speaking to a retired GP this morning. Her son is a doctor in a hospital in Southampton.

He said they already had specific rooms to isolate people who needed to be prior to this pandemic.

In an worrying turn around, the wards are inundated with Coronavirus cases. With patients who dont have the virus having to use the isolation rooms.

She spoke to him briefly yesterday, and said he admitted to being "absolutely exhausted"

A top man in my book.

[jackmiggins]

FFS - forget the graphs - none of us, despite our own expertise, have a minuscule amount of knowledge in this area. The graphs that are shown to the public are obviously given only to satisfy the public’s voracious appetite for ‘simple’ graphics. Stay at home and sit tight. Stay safe and DON’T infect.

[jackmiggins]

I was told, two weeks ago, by a very well respected director of our practice, that his son, who is a bio-medicinal scientist in Leeds, that a mobile hospital was quickly being put together there & that they expected the peak within a week!!!
Beware false and pathetically Faecal information, as it seems rife (as ever).

[Jakubclaret]

Two of the biggest hotspots are South Wales and Hampshire. I’m no expert but I don’t remember either being known for their big Muslim populations.

It'll hit Bradford & Leicester ect, soon enough it's a slow creeper that's all, yesterday it was announced Leicester had seen its biggest jump yet in deaths, not implying all will be of Asian origin, unless the Asian culture seperates more & distances itself, it will become a massive problem for sure it's not really debatable.

[android]

The FT chart doesn't use all UK deaths either.
We won't be able to get a sense of total deaths including ones outside of hospitals for a long time so since we need to know how the virus is doing now then we use these figures as they are easy to record and can be updated daily.

I should point out FT are releasing half a dozen different types of graph a day, so while yes the DAILY death chart posted above France looks like it's doing very well but looks about the same in the CUMULATIVE chart. But since right now most people want to know how we are doing day-to-day the daily chart seems most relevant to see who is still on the up (eg: UK & UK) and who is starting to show a drop off so we might know how long it takes.

EU3kQRIXsAA8CWS.jpg

That makes sense Combat. But the second chart (and headline) you posted highlights my point about the FT's odd attitude to France. Italy, France and the UK have been on markedly similar trajectories for weeks but the FT headline always mentions the UK and Italy (along with Spain and US) but never France. I don't know who John Burn-Murdoch is but I assume he is a big Francophile!

Take your points jackmiggins but I think we are looking at charts to get a sense that we are making positive progress by "flattening the curve".

[CombatClaret]

That makes sense Combat. But the second chart (and headline) you posted highlights my point about the FT's odd attitude to France. Italy, France and the UK have been on markedly similar trajectories for weeks but the FT headline always mentions the UK and Italy (along with Spain and US) but never France. I don't know who John Burn-Murdoch is but I assume he is a big Francophile!

Take your points jackmiggins but I think we are looking at charts to get a sense that we are making positive progress by "flattening the curve".

In terms of headline I think it's because Italy was the first and so far worst hit in Europe, it's the yard stick by which western countries are comparing responses to anecdotally. Spain too in that they've been hit very hard early on.

UK & US get mentioned because well, we're the UK and the US is the US. America also on course to be most affected and it's run by a lunatic who's downplayed this since day one.
France... France is 4th I think in total deaths in Europe, wasn't the first to be hit like Italy/Spain and isn't grabbing headlines testing numbers like Germany. There's only so many letters in a headline and France just doesn't make the cut. I don't think there's any FT franco bias.

[slw]

15% of people in Burnley breaking lockdwon rules. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11336779/ ... akers-map/

[NottsClaret]

Austria are set to loosen their lockdown and are set to let small shops reopen from 14th April followed by the rest on 1st May.

Yes, and Bayern Munich back training again today, albeit maintaining their distance. Nobody wants to talk about it publicly yet in case it sets the wrong tone, but the time will soon come when countries have to begin to explain an exit strategy. Nobody can stay in lockdown forever.

[thatdberight]

That makes sense Combat. But the second chart (and headline) you posted highlights my point about the FT's odd attitude to France. Italy, France and the UK have been on markedly similar trajectories for weeks but the FT headline always mentions the UK and Italy (along with Spain and US) but never France. I don't know who John Burn-Murdoch is but I assume he is a big Francophile!

Take your points jackmiggins but I think we are looking at charts to get a sense that we are making positive progress by "flattening the curve".

Perhaps France has been helped by their decision to commandeer PPE that had been manufactured for the NHS.

Liberté, Egalité, **** Off les rosbifs as they say.

[FactualFrank]

It seems to be around 19th April when we should see the numbers dropping.

[tiger76]

It seems to be around 19th April when we should see the numbers dropping.

Possibly but there's a lot of variables to consider,even after the peak it could take many weeks to see large drops in the death figures.

UK peak – when will it be?

David Shukman

Science editor, BBC News

The scientists modelling the outbreak keep emphasising that there can be no certainty about the timing of what will happen next in the UK.

The current hope is the peak may be reached in seven to 10 days but that’s based on computer simulations, which rely on a host of assumptions.

In an email on Monday morning, one of the scientists told me that everything depended “on social distancing having the expected effect and remaining in place”.

Another big question is about the "shape" of the peak – whether it will be like a steep mountain or more of a plateau.

In one scenario, known as "most likely", there would be "a reasonably rapid decline following the peak but still not dropping to low levels for one to two months".

And in another, described as "reasonable worst case", the decline would be much slower and stretch out over several months.

In both scenarios, I’m told, social distancing would need to be kept in place – another reminder of the long haul ahead.

[Zlatan]

It seems to be around 19th April when we should see the numbers dropping.

this time last week it was the 12th...

[jrgbfc]

I don't think its realistic for the lockdown to go on much past the end of April, unless we have some kind of carrot dangled to give us a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. After 6 weeks of lockdown, people will be completely fed up and compliance will start to fall.

[FactualFrank]

Possibly but there's a lot of variables to consider,even after the peak it could take many weeks to see large drops in the death figures.

From what I read, it's based on the 'up to' 28 days that it can take before someone is ill, to them recovering or not. Which will mean the lockdown would have been in place for the 4 weeks.

[paulatky]

I don't think its realistic for the lockdown to go on much past the end of April, unless we have some kind of carrot dangled to give us a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. After 6 weeks of lockdown, people will be completely fed up and compliance will start to fall.

And then the number of cases will start to rise again

[NottsClaret]

And then the number of cases will start to rise again

That'll have to be ok, as long as they stay below NHS capacity. Surely nobody believes we're eliminating Covid19? It'll be on and off measures and increased testing.

But full lockdown beyond a couple of months is impossible for many reasons.