Covid-19

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

[quote=paulatky post_id=<a href="tel:1249351">1249351</a> time=<a href="tel:1586188392">1586188392</a> user_id=3038]
And then the number of cases will start to rise again

That'll have to be ok, as long as they stay below NHS capacity. Surely nobody believes we're eliminating Covid19? It'll be on and off measures and increased testing.

But full lockdown beyond a couple of months is impossible for many reasons.
[/quote]

Yes as long as the NHS can cope with the numbers then lockdown will be scaled back.

[jrgbfc]

And then the number of cases will start to rise again

At some point we're just going to have to get on with things. What do you suggest, lockdown all summer?

[dsr]

And then the number of cases will start to rise again

Look on the bright side - you'll be able to maintain your fifty-times-daily chorus of "I told you so".

[Quicknick]

And then the number of cases will start to rise again

Maybe, maybe not.

[thatdberight]

Look on the bright side - you'll be able to maintain your fifty-times-daily chorus of "I told you so".

To be fair to paulatky (although he has had his moments in this thread) that hasn't been most of his thing - he's long been as worried about the economic impact of our actions.

[KateR]

To be fair to paulatky (although he has had his moments in this thread) that hasn't been most of his thing - he's long been as worried about the economic impact of our actions.

I know this is a mute point bright boy (sorry your nickname for me to remember you by) but I just wanted to say I am impressed with the majority of your posts on this thread and I have started looking forward to reading them. Long may it continue

[tim_noone]

I know this is a mute point bright boy (sorry your nickname for me to remember you by) but I just wanted to say I am impressed with the majority of your posts on this thread and I have started looking forward to reading them. Long may it continue

Get a room.....

[thatdberight]

I know this is a mute point bright boy (sorry your nickname for me to remember you by) but I just wanted to say I am impressed with the majority of your posts on this thread and I have started looking forward to reading them. Long may it continue

Well you're wrong about that. Wrong about everything just like everybody else. Except me.

Oh and while I'm at it:
moot*

[KateR]

bright boy
hopefully some will be believing I am doing it on purpose now but have to admit you were right again

Tim,
you should be ashamed of yourself for this suggestion, I can't emphasize enough about social distancing surely

[tiger76]

Mixed news from Italy,higher death toll again,but new cases slowing.

Italy death toll jumps again
Some bad news now from Italy.

The country has seen the daily death toll fall in recent days but on Monday went back up again, with 636 deaths reported - a jump of more than 100 from the previous day.

The infection rate is still slowing, though, with 3,599 new cases, a growth of 2.8%.

If we follow their model,then it'll be a long road to recovery,but there's no obvious short cut to ending this outbreak in the immediate future,it'll require patience from the public,and how long that'll last is questionable.

[Bfcboyo]

I know this is a mute point bright boy (sorry your nickname for me to remember you by) but I just wanted to say I am impressed with the majority of your posts on this thread and I have started looking forward to reading them. Long may it continue

Hate it when people use a 2nd account to rim themselves.

[thatdberight]

Hate it when people use a 2nd account to rim themselves.

That's not my second account. Nor even my third.

[Grumps]

Mixed news from Italy,higher death toll again,but new cases slowing.

Italy death toll jumps again
Some bad news now from Italy.

The country has seen the daily death toll fall in recent days but on Monday went back up again, with 636 deaths reported - a jump of more than 100 from the previous day.

The infection rate is still slowing, though, with 3,599 new cases, a growth of 2.8%.

If we follow their model,then it'll be a long road to recovery,but there's no obvious short cut to ending this outbreak in the immediate future,it'll require patience from the public,and how long that'll last is questionable.

Better news in Spain where numbers fall again, and emergency wards in Madrid area return to almost normal.

[Paul Waine]

I think a week is a good time period to average, might delay the perception of the curve flattening by a two or three days but I think that outweighs the random variations the numbers throw up which might lead to false conclusions.

Agree. I'd been thinking for a time that a moving average was a better way to present the charts, thus smoothing out the noise of daily variations. Some of the noise is no more than the result of different timings of stats being submitted. Agree, also that 7 days rolling is the better metric. It is noticeable that the weekends distort some of the reporting of stats. I don't know whether this is impact of (a) labs, while they might be working every day, including w/ends, may have their admin people doing these extra hours - no reason why they should if it is just to submit new stats for previous day 24 hours - or (b) other parts of the stats reporting chain, not being fully staffed sat/sun, just so that stats can be updated. Given that Easter bank hol w/end is the end of the week, it will be interesting to see if there are any particular arrangements in place to keep the stats being collected, maybe so that the best available stats (most up to date?) are available for consideration of the effectiveness of the 3 weeks of social isolation/lockdown.

[ksrclaret]

Mixed news from Italy,higher death toll again,but new cases slowing.

Italy death toll jumps again
Some bad news now from Italy.

The country has seen the daily death toll fall in recent days but on Monday went back up again, with 636 deaths reported - a jump of more than 100 from the previous day.

The infection rate is still slowing, though, with 3,599 new cases, a growth of 2.8%.

If we follow their model,then it'll be a long road to recovery,but there's no obvious short cut to ending this outbreak in the immediate future,it'll require patience from the public,and how long that'll last is questionable.

There's already a little bit of unrest starting up in Italy. I can understand it in one respect, their lockdown really is a lockdown, and the end isn't in sight at all.

[tiger76]

Better news in Spain where numbers fall again, and emergency wards in Madrid area return to almost normal.

Spain has seen numbers falling for a good few days,and hopefully they're getting on top of their ICU cases.

France has also been on a downward trajectory,let's hope that continues,but it's far too early too get complacent just yet.

Encouraging signs in most of Europe though,and we have to be thankful for that.

I'm sad to report France have reported their worst daily death toll to date,just when they appeared to be making progress,i should clarify the figures are inclusive of nursing homes,so this might explain the spike,bleeding hope so for their sakes.

Highest daily death toll in France since epidemic began
France has reported 833 deaths in 24 hours, its highest since the outbreak began.

The figure includes people who died in hospitals and nursing homes.

The total number of fatalities from coronavirus there now stands at 8,911 - the third highest in the world after Italy and Spain.

"We have not yet reached the end of the ascent of this epidemic," Health Minister Olivier Véran said.

[Paul Waine]

Possibly but there's a lot of variables to consider,even after the peak it could take many weeks to see large drops in the death figures.

UK peak – when will it be?

David Shukman

Science editor, BBC News

The scientists modelling the outbreak keep emphasising that there can be no certainty about the timing of what will happen next in the UK.

The current hope is the peak may be reached in seven to 10 days but that’s based on computer simulations, which rely on a host of assumptions.

In an email on Monday morning, one of the scientists told me that everything depended “on social distancing having the expected effect and remaining in place”.

Another big question is about the "shape" of the peak – whether it will be like a steep mountain or more of a plateau.

In one scenario, known as "most likely", there would be "a reasonably rapid decline following the peak but still not dropping to low levels for one to two months".

And in another, described as "reasonable worst case", the decline would be much slower and stretch out over several months.

In both scenarios, I’m told, social distancing would need to be kept in place – another reminder of the long haul ahead.

I think it's all about the way the UK people behave. If we maintain social isolation then things will go well. If we keep allowing the media to pester the gov't and their scientists - "what is the exit plan?" "when do you think we will reach the peak?" and so on - then we will be pushing the peak further and further away in time and higher and higher in deaths, because the minute the gov't/science says "the peak will be next week" or "we have reached the peak and..." everyone will stop social isolating and all the good work everyone has done will have been undone and it will all have to start out again... We just need one of the journos to have the intelligence to tell her/his colleagues "you are making it worse. Stop it." and we will start to get on top of covid-19.

[tiger76]

I think it's all about the way the UK people behave. If we maintain social isolation then things will go well. If we keep allowing the media to pester the gov't and their scientists - "what is the exit plan?" "when do you think we will reach the peak?" and so on - then we will be pushing the peak further and further away in time and higher and higher in deaths, because the minute the gov't/science says "the peak will be next week" or "we have reached the peak and..." everyone will stop social isolating and all the good work everyone has done will have been undone and it will all have to start out again... We just need one of the journos to have the intelligence to tell her/his colleagues "you are making it worse. Stop it." and we will start to get on top of covid-19.

The media don't help that's for sure,it's been stated for some weeks that even when the UK reaches the peak,that'll be far from the end of these restrictions,a relaxing perhaps,but it'll be gradual and in line with the medical and scientific guidance.

I applaud you for managing to insert journos and intelligence in the same sentence,sadly most media hacks are sadly lacking in the latter.

[TVC15]

Today’s media conference was embarrassing for the journalists.
4 of the egotistical tits managed to ask the same question in a slightly different way and got exactly the same answer.

The government should bring in Sir Alex Ferguson to stand on one of the podiums and control the media - he can adopt the United strategy under him of just banning anyone who annoys him too much !

[randomclaret2]

The Journalists want to be the star of the show

[NewClaret]

Today’s media conference was embarrassing for the journalists.
4 of the egotistical tits managed to ask the same question in a slightly different way and got exactly the same answer.

The government should bring in Sir Alex Ferguson to stand on one of the podiums and control the media - he can adopt the United strategy under him of just banning anyone who annoys him too much !

Didn’t listen today, but do wish they’d call out the idiots asking questions sometimes and just say “I’ve answered that, next” and move on to the next journalist until there’s a sensible question. May take a while....

[Blackrod]

Personally sick to the back teeth of seeing Laura Kuensberg. She never asks anything positive. Various politicians have treated her with respect but she’s quick to stick the knife in.

[thatdberight]

Tony Blair at least acknowledging that the cure may be worse than the disease. Easy when you're not in government but still, this will start to be the debate.

[tiger76]

Tony Blair at least acknowledging that the cure may be worse than the disease. Easy when you're not in government but still, this will start to be the debate.

Denmark and Austria considering lifting restrictions soon,but only if the infections don't worsen.

At some point we'll have to attempt to come out of lockdown,the question of course is when,and at what pace.

We reported earlier that Austria is considering lifting some of its coronavirus restrictions.

Now Denmark has announced plans to re-open nurseries and primary schools from next week, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says.

However, it will only happen if the number of current infections remains constant and if people respect existing restrictions, she warned.

Austria has become one of the first countries outside Asia to announce plans to ease its lockdown measures. Though bars and restaurants will stay shut, some shops will be able to reopen next week – although Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said people would still have to abide by social distancing rules. From Monday all Austrians must now wear face masks in supermarkets.

Now those 2 countries have nowhere near the deaths and confirmed cases of the UK,but it's a risk going too quickly,hence why they're taking it slowly.

My instinct is the UK government would like to get some people back at work by the end of April,but this will hinge on how the NHS is coping,and whether the growth in new infections is slowing enough,but sooner or later we're going to have to bite the bullet,well obviously still practising social distancing.

It's striking the right balance that's the tough call.

[thatdberight]

Denmark and Austria considering lifting restrictions soon,but only if the infections don't worsen.

At some point we'll have to attempt to come out of lockdown,the question of course is when,and at what pace.

We reported earlier that Austria is considering lifting some of its coronavirus restrictions.

Now Denmark has announced plans to re-open nurseries and primary schools from next week, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says.

However, it will only happen if the number of current infections remains constant and if people respect existing restrictions, she warned.

Austria has become one of the first countries outside Asia to announce plans to ease its lockdown measures. Though bars and restaurants will stay shut, some shops will be able to reopen next week – although Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said people would still have to abide by social distancing rules. From Monday all Austrians must now wear face masks in supermarkets.

Now those 2 countries have nowhere near the deaths and confirmed cases of the UK,but it's a risk going too quickly,hence why they're taking it slowly.

My instinct is the UK government would like to get some people back at work by the end of April,but this will hinge on how the NHS is coping,and whether the growth in new infections is slowing enough,but sooner or later we're going to have to bite the bullet,well obviously still practising social distancing.

It's striking the right balance that's the tough call.

Stay safe. Even tigers can get it, we now know.

[tiger76]

Stay safe. Even tigers can get it, we now know.

So I've heard,stay safe yourself.

[Claretincraven]

Personally sick to the back teeth of seeing Laura Kuensberg. She never asks anything positive. Various politicians have treated her with respect but she’s quick to stick the knife in.

Absolutely horrid woman. I rather hoped we had seen the back of her after Brexit. I wonder if she is naturally such a tit, or if she has to practice?

[Paul Waine]

Denmark and Austria considering lifting restrictions soon,but only if the infections don't worsen.

At some point we'll have to attempt to come out of lockdown,the question of course is when,and at what pace.

We reported earlier that Austria is considering lifting some of its coronavirus restrictions.

Now Denmark has announced plans to re-open nurseries and primary schools from next week, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says.

However, it will only happen if the number of current infections remains constant and if people respect existing restrictions, she warned.

Austria has become one of the first countries outside Asia to announce plans to ease its lockdown measures. Though bars and restaurants will stay shut, some shops will be able to reopen next week – although Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said people would still have to abide by social distancing rules. From Monday all Austrians must now wear face masks in supermarkets.

Now those 2 countries have nowhere near the deaths and confirmed cases of the UK,but it's a risk going too quickly,hence why they're taking it slowly.

My instinct is the UK government would like to get some people back at work by the end of April,but this will hinge on how the NHS is coping,and whether the growth in new infections is slowing enough,but sooner or later we're going to have to bite the bullet,well obviously still practising social distancing.

It's striking the right balance that's the tough call.

I read an essay in TLS earlier today (TLS came free this w/end with S Times): The kangaroo curve, Some thoughts on the British response to coronavirus. Alexander van Tulleken

https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/some ... -tulleken/

The author explains the title is a reference to learning to land a plane - a kangaroo landing is one where the plane bounces and needs to be managed carefully, otherwise the pilot may crash it.

"Aviation metaphors abound in medicine, and I have though a great deal about kangaroo landings over the past few weeks. In managing this epidemic the UK government is trying to guide us delicately through a complex oscillating situation. If the control measures are introduced too early they will merely defer the pandemic. There are benefits to this but they are hard to calculate compared to the economic and social costs, which are immediately felt by almost everyone. When restrictions are loosened the number of cases surges and there will be the need for further lockdowns."

"My training after I qualified as a doctor was in crisis response. One thing I learnt was that in every crisis, including this one, the doctors can do relatively little ad the so-called affected population do much of the work of response and recovery. Part of recovery is not simply achieving a return to our old lives but rather for people to regain a sense of ordinary life."

It's worth a read for those who are interested.

[TVC15]

The number of people working for the BBC news is obscene

They have correspondents and assistant correspondents for every thing you can imagine. There was one the other day introduced as something along the lines of correspondent for myth busting.

Kuensberg is so up her own arse on the back of her role in Brexit - it’s ridiculous the amount of air time she gets.

I would love to see the increase in salary costs in the last 3 or 4 years for the news / politics army of staff in the BBC. And why is nobody calling for these very highly paid individuals who work for the BBC to donate part of their wages like they are for footballers ?
With the likes of Zoe Ball and Jeremy Vine pulling in the best part of a million a year there will be lots like Kuensberg not far behind.

[tiger76]

The number of people working for the BBC news is obscene

They have correspondents and assistant correspondents for every thing you can imagine. There was one the other day introduced as something along the lines of correspondent for myth busting.

Kuensberg is so up her own arse on the back of her role in Brexit - it’s ridiculous the amount of air time she gets.

I would love to see the increase in salary costs in the last 3 or 4 years for the news / politics army of staff in the BBC. And why is nobody calling for these very highly paid individuals who work for the BBC to donate part of their wages like they are for footballers ?
With the likes of Zoe Ball and Jeremy Vine pulling in the best part of a million a year there will be lots like Kuensberg not far behind.

Cuts are in the pipeline for the bloated BBC,but they've been put on hold due to the CV,it's perfectly valid to hold them to account,after all they are founded by the public,MOTD is a prime example,why does it need jug ears and countless pundits to review the highlights we've all just seen and heard,they could easily save a few million a year by ditching some of the hangers on from that show for starters.

[dsr]

15% of people in Burnley breaking lockdwon rules. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11336779/ ... akers-map/

I've seen that posted in other posts as well.

What it boils down to is that they have asked 26,700 people around the country what they are doing. If those people have been spread around fairly and evenly, then 32 of them were in Burnley. Of whom, 5 said they weren't following the rules.

If one of those 5 had been out breaking the rules when the pollster called, the stats would have been 12.9%. We wouldn't have been in the headline.

[CombatClaret]

Suggest peak CASES could be 2-3 day while peak DEATHS in 7-10

cases.jpg (168.47 KiB) Viewed 2368 times

deaths.jpg (150.92 KiB) Viewed 2368 times

[Spijed]

Some don't deserve any sympathy if they catch the virus!

Here's one:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is ... RL?ocid=st

[tiger76]

What is it with these health ministers,now the NZ one is being an eejit.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52194407

[Spijed]

Why are less people in Germany on ventilators dying?
They seem to have quite a few in ICU's yet their rate of death seems to be far lower than ours?

It's been said that once you are on a ventilator there is nothing the medical teams can do to keep you alive, apart from making you comfortable and it's up to your own immune system to fight off the virus, yet in Germany their rate of death in those circumstances seem to be lower than ours.

Anyone know why?

[thatdberight]

Some don't deserve any sympathy if they catch the virus!

Here's one:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/is ... RL?ocid=st

I just sent him a congratulatory email at his Knesset email address congratulating him for his bravery on coming out.

[thatdberight]

Why are less people in Germany on ventilators dying?
They seem to have quite a few in ICU's yet their rate of death seems to be far lower than ours?

It's been said that once you are on a ventilator there is nothing the medical teams can do to keep you alive, apart from making you comfortable and it's up to your own immune system to fight off the virus, yet in Germany their rate of death in those circumstances seem to be lower than ours.

Anyone know why?

Maybe they put people who don't really need then on ventilators.

[paulatky]

Suggest peak CASES could be 2-3 day while peak DEATHS in 7-10

cases.jpg

deaths.jpg

The crucial thing is how long the plateau is.

We will have an idea watching Italy Spain anf France

[Jakubclaret]

Maybe they put people who don't really need then on ventilators.

It's when people are put on the ventilators results in how well people progress overall, it's a system based on earlier the better.

[KateR]

China reporting no deaths is good news.

I see according to reports that Turkmenistan, there are no C-19 cases, the population is healthy and happy mainly due to following the leader on a health campaign and they held a bike ride to celebrate world health day.

[Spijed]

It's when people are put on the ventilators results in how well people progress overall, it's a system based on earlier the better.

So basically we would have a far better survival rate than 50/50 if we had more ventilators and people in the UK were put on them sooner?

[Jakubclaret]

So basically we would have a far better survival rate than 50/50 if we had more ventilators and people in the UK were put on them sooner?

Well yes really if we had to put them on a ventilator in the first place, some other countries try to avoid it in first place, you gain so much by acting as early as possible, my feelings are well known on what we should have done, bang from the word get go, it's difficult not to apportion blame not that it'd do any good, when you've got people dying in other countries from a contagious virus some people would tend to think s**t we've got to do something here to mitigate a bigger problem.

[keith1879]

I guess this won't be a popular view but.....the journalists yesterday did not ask about an exit plan (ie dates) but an exit strategy ....which to my mind involves discussing the sort of measures we put in place at some as yet unspecified point in the future. The answer they got on each occasion appeared to be "We haven't thought about yet"....which in my view is a rubbish answer. I would hope (and actually I believe) that the government have people working very hard on establishing what measures can be used when the present situation is loosened. Mr Raab and his chums would have looked much better if they had said words to the effect of "We are looking at that right now but cannot finalise our plan until we have the epidemic under control".

[dsr]

So basically we would have a far better survival rate than 50/50 if we had more ventilators and people in the UK were put on them sooner?

Not necessarily. The suggestion is that the Germans are putting people on ventilators who would have recovered anyway. Not that that's a bad thing, because doctors don't have perfect advance knowledge of how someone's illness will develop.

[NottsClaret]

I guess this won't be a popular view but.....the journalists yesterday did not ask about an exit plan (ie dates) but an exit strategy ....which to my mind involves discussing the sort of measures we put in place at some as yet unspecified point in the future. The answer they got on each occasion appeared to be "We haven't thought about yet"....which in my view is a rubbish answer. I would hope (and actually I believe) that the government have people working very hard on establishing what measures can be used when the present situation is loosened. Mr Raab and his chums would have looked much better if they had said words to the effect of "We are looking at that right now but cannot finalise our plan until we have the epidemic under control".

Exactly.. what else are they thinking about? The lockdown is in place, the public and police are doing a fair job of making it a success. That's taking care of itself. The NHS know what they're doing. So all they should be thinking about in government is how and when to release restrictions while keeping at-risk case numbers down.

Not suggesting they do it too soon, but you've got to analyse and plan for it, it'll be the trickiest bit of this whole thing.

[keith1879]

I note today that once again Dominic Raab isn't answering questions. Laura Kuenssberg and Robert Peston have both asked a simple question really......is he in charge? He just waffles about collective responsibility. If he wants to stop people from asking the same question over and over again then he might try answering it.

[Spijed]

Not necessarily. The suggestion is that the Germans are putting people on ventilators who would have recovered anyway. Not that that's a bad thing, because doctors don't have perfect advance knowledge of how someone's illness will develop.

But there must be a reason why not as many Germans are dying in critical care when neither country can cure patients.

[KateR]

Exactly.. what else are they thinking about? The lockdown is in place, the public and police are doing a fair job of making it a success. That's taking care of itself. The NHS know what they're doing. So all they should be thinking about in government is how and when to release restrictions while keeping at-risk case numbers down.

Not suggesting they do it too soon, but you've got to analyse and plan for it, it'll be the trickiest bit of this whole thing.

Are the public doing a fair job of making the lockdown a success? Appears to be quite a lot of social media indicating the majority are but there are pockets that are not? I am looking from afar so just asking a general question around this.

I would also think what was said regarding the Gov. that they are running numerous scenarios about how you come out of this and also looking at how other countries do during the next month or so. I would hazard a guess at what most journalists questions would be during the coming weeks if the answer was yes and I'm sure they don't want that quiz question everyday, plus I also believe it's a given that they are and therefore the answers given don't bother me at all.

Meanwhile in local news for Houston:
The mayor late last week had all basketball hoops removed from parks because people were still not listening enough.
Several churches have implemented a Class Action against the local Gov. and the senior judge in particular for "unconstitutionally closing churches". One church opened it's doors on Sunday in violation and had quite a few in the congregation. It should be noted that these churches are not small and hold hundreds of people, joys of living in a bible belt but in reality have not had any problems with them, just the hypocrisy is sometimes annoying.

[tim_noone]

I note today that once again Dominic Raab isn't answering questions. Laura Kuenssberg and Robert Peston have both asked a simple question really......is he in charge? He just waffles about collective responsibility. If he wants to stop people from asking the same question over and over again then he might try answering it.

I Dont think he has any answers.

[Bordeauxclaret]

I note today that once again Dominic Raab isn't answering questions. Laura Kuenssberg and Robert Peston have both asked a simple question really......is he in charge? He just waffles about collective responsibility. If he wants to stop people from asking the same question over and over again then he might try answering it.

He’s certainly a person you’d pick as your stand in.
He’s never going to overshadow anyone.