Covid-19

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:18 pm

Grumps wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:05 pm
I did say that I didn't think we would, and also if we did I would admit I was wrong, it would still need a couple of days of high figures to reach it by Saturday, iam sure most of us on here are hoping we won't, those in the... I told you so... Camp probably secretly hoping they have their morbid moment of fame.
FFS grow up, your acting like a 10 year old.

The data pointed out that was the outcome. I know peeps on here are saying I am talking **** and know nothing about data.

I take no pleasure in it, it was as obvious as the sun coming up tomorrow.

Inchy
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Inchy » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:20 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 pm
This is where I find out we have been scammed.

Dr James Oliver who said he worked at Leeds Hospital took 20 of out visors on Sunday. He said you have had a delivery.

I am worried you will not have heard of him, and we have been scammed.


To be fair Leeds is the second biggest teaching hospital in Europe and employs a lot of people.

Also We haven’t had an issue with visors/ goggles/ glasses or a week or so now


Ps when you say “you have had a delivery” I assume you mean you as in Leeds. Not you as in me 😂

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:23 pm

Yes I mean Leeds Hospital.

Rileybobs
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Rileybobs » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:27 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:23 pm
Yes I mean Leeds Hospital.
There are a number of hospitals in Leeds and none of them (to my knowledge) is called Leeds Hospital.

KateR
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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:29 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 pm
This is where I find out we have been scammed.

Dr James Oliver who said he worked at Leeds Hospital took 20 of out visors on Sunday. He said you have had a delivery.

I am worried you will not have heard of him, and we have been scammed.
I would have hoped you were doing checks on who gets what and ensuring your product get's in to the right hands, are you?

Inchy
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Inchy » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:30 pm

Do want to say thanks for your support and what you are doing.

We are a the start of this, whether it be a single spike, a later spike, or a constant rumbling issue for months (highly likely). Either way if we are having Ppe issues at the start we it’s clear these issues are not going away. We need all the help we can get
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Inchy
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Inchy » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:32 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:27 pm
There are a number of hospitals in Leeds and none of them (to my knowledge) is called Leeds Hospital.


They all fall under the banner of Leeds teaching Hospitals
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dsr
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:34 pm

A quick google tells us that there is a Dr. James Oliver at Leeds Teaching Hospitals.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by gavster » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:40 pm

Grumps wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:54 pm
Would you not have thought that if it was helpful somebody might have produced one by now? Granted I've only had a quick search.
I am not sure a cumsum is helpful. 7 day rolling average on a log scale is what I think works best. Normally focusing on new cases is the best indicator. I hope the curve is flattening, I know they say it’s gone from doubling every three days to every four, but I am not sure accurate it is as the testing is so limited. Lock down and distancing are so vital all the data proves that. Deaths are high and horrendous but not an indication of the spread today and the death figures are always under reported on a Monday after the weekend catch up

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:41 pm

KateR wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:29 pm
I would have hoped you were doing checks on who gets what and ensuring your product get's in to the right hands, are you?
I am yes, I am coordinating now.
They were donated before I took control.
I am sure it was genuine but you never know.

Pendle side have commented on the just giving page, I delivered them myself.

Yorkshire Ambulance sent us a pic.

Before I took control, well I was not in control.
88495B8D-7C4A-4459-9F91-554BE629F05A.jpeg
88495B8D-7C4A-4459-9F91-554BE629F05A.jpeg (621.8 KiB) Viewed 3319 times
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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:45 pm

dsr wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:34 pm
A quick google tells us that there is a Dr. James Oliver at Leeds Teaching Hospitals.
Good, I am busy as bee now.

Been furloughed by work.

Trying to coordinate 8 peeps printing and 30 people wanting deliveries takes more time than I thought.

Then I have to drive round collect the prints and deliver to those who need them.

It’s getting easier as I get my head around it.
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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:46 pm

Inchy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:30 pm
Do want to say thanks for your support and what you are doing.

We are a the start of this, whether it be a single spike, a later spike, or a constant rumbling issue for months (highly likely). Either way if we are having Ppe issues at the start we it’s clear these issues are not going away. We need all the help we can get
You are doing way more than us.

But let me know if you need any.

paulatky
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:59 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:18 pm
FFS grow up, your acting like a 10 year old.

The data pointed out that was the outcome. I know peeps on here are saying I am talking **** and know nothing about data.

I take no pleasure in it, it was as obvious as the sun coming up tomorrow.
I agree with you Lowbank.
One of my earliest posts was to ask if Grumps was a teenager. Cant believe he is towards the top of the age range.Contributes no ideas of his own
Just got a chip on his shoulder that some of us have called it just about right.

Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:06 pm

Well done
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CombatClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:45 am

"The language around Covid 19 has sometimes felt trite and misleading, you do not survive the disease through fortitude and strength of character whatever the Prime Ministers colleagues will tell us. And the disease is not the great leveler, the consequences of which everyone rich or poor suffers the same.

This is a myth which needs debunking, those suffering on the front line right now; bus drivers & shelf stackers, nurses, care home workers, hospital staff and shopkeepers are disproportionately the lowest paid members of our workforce. They are more likely to catch the disease because they are more exposed, those who live in tower blocks and small flats will find the lockdown tougher, those in manual jobs will be unable to work from home.

This is a health issue with huge ramifications for social welfare and it's a welfare issue with huge ramifications for public health.
Tonight as France goes into recession and the World Trade Organisation warns the pandemic could provoke the deepest economic downturn of our lifetimes we ask ourselves what kind of social settlement might need to be put in place to stop the inequality becoming even more stark."

- Emily Maitlis, Newsnight

Truth to power.
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AndrewJB
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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:19 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21P1VF

This is an interesting article - a sort of look at what has happened so far.

Clarinetclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Clarinetclaret » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:19 am

Grumps wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:33 pm
He might not have, but somebody else would have.
It sounds heartless I know, but other deaths are down, and some of those who have died, might have died anyway. The time to tell will be when the death totals for 2020 are released, and how they compare to other years to get the true picture
Another bloody Gordaleman. Do you not get the fact that governments all around the world have put populations on lockdown? Do you not get the fact that intensive care wards are overrun and the Doctors and Nurses are under pressures they have never experienced? Do you really think the country has basically ground to a halt because of some piddling little illness? My wife is a nurse and she has seen first hand the devastation this is causing to families and workers. Tell me a time when we have had to build 4000 bed hospitals with ventilators because the experts know that the intensive care units will be full. You really are a imbecile. Another idiot who thinks he knows better than the W.H.O etc.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:11 am

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:12 pm
Tony Blair at least acknowledging that the cure may be worse than the disease. Easy when you're not in government but still, this will start to be the debate.
Blair’s comments: https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronav ... al-2530375

He’s horrified by the economic costs of the lockdown (for whom?). Nothing there about the human costs. And again - the economic costs would be hugely lessened were the government to stop all major (and non essential) financial transactions. If people and companies (this goes for Burnley FC too) don’t have to pay mortgages, rent, wages, credit card bills, etc - then the whole country can get by on a much smaller living allowance for everyone (those not working).

The government’s approach doesn’t cover everyone, and it just keeps money flowing up to those who already have a lot of it. So as time goes by we’ll see the rich looked after, while the poor suffer more. The “free money” the government give to the middle classes will end up in the pockets of the wealthy. Those who can’t get free money will fall into further debt. Much better to cancel all major transactions and give everyone a living allowance.
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Taffy on the wing
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Taffy on the wing » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:34 am

Grumps wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:05 pm
I did say that I didn't think we would, and also if we did I would admit I was wrong, it would still need a couple of days of high figures to reach it by Saturday, iam sure most of us on here are hoping we won't, those in the... I told you so... Camp probably secretly hoping they have their morbid moment of fame.
Below the belt!

Taffy on the wing
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Taffy on the wing » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:04 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:11 am
Blair’s comments: https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronav ... al-2530375

He’s horrified by the economic costs of the lockdown (for whom?). Nothing there about the human costs. And again - the economic costs would be hugely lessened were the government to stop all major (and non essential) financial transactions. If people and companies (this goes for Burnley FC too) don’t have to pay mortgages, rent, wages, credit card bills, etc - then the whole country can get by on a much smaller living allowance for everyone (those not working).

The government’s approach doesn’t cover everyone, and it just keeps money flowing up to those who already have a lot of it. So as time goes by we’ll see the rich looked after, while the poor suffer more. The “free money” the government give to the middle classes will end up in the pockets of the wealthy. Those who can’t get free money will fall into further debt. Much better to cancel all major transactions and give everyone a living allowance.
He's a Lizard!...........A born again, Evangelical Lizard....he can't see beyond his own Nose, and it's all about Money! He did more damage to the Labour Party than anyone i can remember...... Well since Michael Foot wore the Donkey Jacket.
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Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:13 am

paulatky wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:59 pm
I agree with you Lowbank.
One of my earliest posts was to ask if Grumps was a teenager. Cant believe he is towards the top of the age range.Contributes no ideas of his own
Just got a chip on his shoulder that some of us have called it just about right.
At least iam not a liar Paul, as you've been shown to be many times on here. Somebody who lies abouts posts 100s of pages back, knowing others won't check and believe its true, for what? So that you can respond with insults, and try and show how clever you are. If you actually believed what you posted, you would have the common decency to reply to people when they question you about your statements
Lowbank complains about people questioning his data.. A grown man who sits and compiles a spreadsheet about death accross the globe, just so that he can post it on a football message board.
But, in the end you've both won, I Carnt, and won't put up with your childish insults every time, like I've said before, I could respond to the name calling, but that would end up with this thread being stopped, and that's not fair on all the other sensible posters who contribute to it
I'll stick to the football threads, hopefully you can keep away from those.

paulatky
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:40 am

Grumps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:13 am
At least iam not a liar Paul, as you've been shown to be many times on here. Somebody who lies abouts posts 100s of pages back, knowing others won't check and believe its true, for what? So that you can respond with insults, and try and show how clever you are. If you actually believed what you posted, you would have the common decency to reply to people when they question you about your statements
Lowbank complains about people questioning his data.. A grown man who sits and compiles a spreadsheet about death accross the globe, just so that he can post it on a football message board.
But, in the end you've both won, I Carnt, and won't put up with your childish insults every time, like I've said before, I could respond to the name calling, but that would end up with this thread being stopped, and that's not fair on all the other sensible posters who contribute to it
I'll stick to the football threads, hopefully you can keep away from those.
Grumps you need to take a good hard look at yourself. Within in few posts you have been criticised by Clarinetclaret,Below the belt , Lowbank and myself.

I have told no lies on here.

Our differences of opinion arose when you stated very early in this thread when you said nobody knows wether the number of cases had peaked at that time. It was obvious to 99.9999% of people that was not the case. That comment looks sillier as each day passes and must embarrass you surely, having got it so wrong.

Yes you go back to your football threads in which you think footy will start again at the end of April.

I had refrained from commenting on your remarks as you requested but then you ridiculed me on another thread which was just not on.

As I said you need to take a long hard look at yourself and take on board its not just me who has this opinion of you.

Above all ,Stay safe as despite whatever you think this is very serious both from a health and economic impact.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grumps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:14 am

Grumps wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:08 pm
Early days? How do you know that, how do you know it hasn't peaked? Nobody knows,so let's just report the facts...if you haven't been to Italy, stuck safely in a 4 star Tenerife hotel, or been in contact with someone who has, the known facts say you won't catch it, but just in case let's empty the supermarket and burden the NHS
I've just been alerted to Paul's post, so I'll break my silence.
Above is the post he's been banging on about for over a month, as can be seen I didn't say it had peaked, I asked him how he knew it hadn't.
The post has to be taken in context, look at the date, all well and good with hindsight, but at the time of writing that post there were 54,yes 54 confirmed cases in the UK. Nobody had died. Everyone who had it had either been to Italy, or had contact with someone who had. It wasn't looking then, and nobody if they are being honest thought it would get as bad as it has
At the time I saw first hand how the outbreak could be contained in the Tenerife hotel.

As for not lying, I could provide probably 10 examples if I could be bothered, but let's just stick with your latest claim from yesterday, when you stated it was impossible to get through to banks to arrange a mortgage holiday
It was pointed out to you that most lenders let you do it online. You were asked if you'd actually tried to get through, or were you just making it up.... We still await your response

Sorry for breaking my promise of silence so soon, but some people just make your blood boil
I will refrain from posting on here, I promise, as otherwise it just descends into pages of arguments which isn't helpful.
Last edited by Grumps on Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:24 am

Grumps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:14 am
I've just been alerted to Paul's post, so I'll break my silence.
Above is the post he's been banging on about for over a month, as can be seen I didn't say it had peaked, I asked him how he knew it hadn't.
The post has to be taken in context, look at the date, all well and good with hindsight, but at the time of writing that post there were 54,yes 54 confirmed cases in the UK. Nobody had died. Everyone who had it had either been to Italy, or had contact with someone who had. It wasn't looking then, and nobody if they are being honest thought it would get as bad as it as
At the time I saw first hand how the outbreak could be contained in the Tenerife hotel.

As for not lying, I could provide probably 10 examples if I could be bothered, but let's just stick with your latest claim from yesterday, when you stated it was impossible to get through to banks to arrange a mortgage holiday
It was pointed out to you that most lenders let you do it online. You were asked if you'd actually tried to get through, or were you just making it up.... We still await your response

Sorry for breaking my promise of silence so soon, but some people just make your blood boil
I will refrain from posting on here, I promise, as otherwise it just descends into pages of arguments which isn't helpful.
How did I know it hadnt peaked !!!!

I have a brain and use it !!!! Unlike some.

Now you have your answer , end of discussion

Grumps
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grumps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:48 am

paulatky wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:24 am
How did I know it hadnt peaked !!!!

I have a brain and use it !!!! Unlike some.

Now you have your answer , end of discussion
Excellent, you could have said that a month ago, but no, you decided to post numerous times on this thread, and other, none Covid threads words to the effect... Arh, grumps, the person who said it had peaked at 54, 74,84...... or any other number you decided to use, when quite clearly I didn't. Thankyou for clearing that up.
Certainly hope its the end of discussion with you, unless you start quoting lies again.

NottsClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:16 am

The missus went back to work yesterday, got some orders in relating to energy industry so life must go on. So much of what everyone does is related to 'essential services' somewhere along the supply chain.

So they'll all be in work today, about 30 of them, grafting away, eating their lunch and so on. Hopefully 2m apart, which is all fine apparently. And then tomorrow we'll go for a socially distant walk in the countryside with the kids so the wannabe stasi can tut at us from behind their curtains. I know which one she's more worried about doing.
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mdd2
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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:20 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:45 am
"The language around Covid 19 has sometimes felt trite and misleading, you do not survive the disease through fortitude and strength of character whatever the Prime Ministers colleagues will tell us. And the disease is not the great leveler, the consequences of which everyone rich or poor suffers the same.

This is a myth which needs debunking, those suffering on the front line right now; bus drivers & shelf stackers, nurses, care home workers, hospital staff and shopkeepers are disproportionately the lowest paid members of our workforce. They are more likely to catch the disease because they are more exposed, those who live in tower blocks and small flats will find the lockdown tougher, those in manual jobs will be unable to work from home.

This is a health issue with huge ramifications for social welfare and it's a welfare issue with huge ramifications for public health.
Tonight as France goes into recession and the World Trade Organisation warns the pandemic could provoke the deepest economic downturn of our lifetimes we ask ourselves what kind of social settlement might need to be put in place to stop the inequality becoming even more stark."

- Emily Maitlis, Newsnight

Truth to power.
I find her a real pain and the way Newsnight goes on about this epidemic does little to inform and a lot to spread unnecessary alarm, but that quote above is pretty much spot on.However some pretty well paid doctors with nice houses are no longer with us too. It is not just the lower ranks who get written off in "war";officers fair badly too
Even the NHS and all that has come to pass since 1945 has failed to remove health inequalities but they are more stark than ever as Michael Marmot has stated so many times, with life expectancies in different parts of a town or city more than a decade apart. (see Michael Marmot -Status Syndrome and The Health Gap-the challenge of an unequal world))
Whether Boris et al will have the foresight to rethink how we do most things and to kick start the economy after this is over is another matter but given all Governments will have to borrow, our National debt will rocket and I imagine so will the cost of borrowing to rebuild our economy.
Any economists on here see much higher interest rates and the return of inflation like to 70's?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:22 am

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:20 am
I find her a real pain and the way Newsnight goes on about this epidemic does little to inform and a lot to spread unnecessary alarm, but that quote above is pretty much spot on.However some pretty well paid doctors with nice houses are no longer with us too. It is not just the lower ranks who get written off in "war";officers fair badly too
Even the NHS and all that has come to pass since 1945 has failed to remove health inequalities but they are more stark than ever as Michael Marmot has stated so many times, with life expectancies in different parts of a town or city more than a decade apart. (see Michael Marmot -Status Syndrome and The Health Gap-the challenge of an unequal world))
Whether Boris et al will have the foresight to rethink how we do most things and to kick start the economy after this is over is another matter but given all Governments will have to borrow, our National debt will rocket and I imagine so will the cost of borrowing to rebuild our economy.
Any economists on here see much higher interest rates and the return of inflation like to 70's?
Not an economist but a mathematician.

With people potentially having a lot less money to spend cant see inflation being in the teens like in the 70’s.

The oil crisis in the 70’s contributed to the inflation but the oil situation is totally the opposite at the moment.

Having said that, despite the record fall in interest rate last month, the underlying trend in mortgage rates available at the moment is an upward trend.
Last edited by paulatky on Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

Devils_Advocate
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:26 am

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:20 am
I find her a real pain and the way Newsnight goes on about this epidemic does little to inform and a lot to spread unnecessary alarm, but that quote above is pretty much spot on.However some pretty well paid doctors with nice houses are no longer with us too. It is not just the lower ranks who get written off in "war";officers fair badly too
Even the NHS and all that has come to pass since 1945 has failed to remove health inequalities but they are more stark than ever as Michael Marmot has stated so many times, with life expectancies in different parts of a town or city more than a decade apart. (see Michael Marmot -Status Syndrome and The Health Gap-the challenge of an unequal world))
Whether Boris et al will have the foresight to rethink how we do most things and to kick start the economy after this is over is another matter but given all Governments will have to borrow, our National debt will rocket and I imagine so will the cost of borrowing to rebuild our economy.
Any economists on here see much higher interest rates and the return of inflation like to 70's?
Somebody on Twitter used the example of Doctors to rubbish Maitlis point citing a specific doctor who caught the Virus. The Doctor himself replied to the comment endorsing what Maitlis said and that he is pleased the message she is giving is getting put out there

Andreshotboots
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Andreshotboots » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:42 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:41 pm
I am yes, I am coordinating now.
They were donated before I took control.
I am sure it was genuine but you never know.

Pendle side have commented on the just giving page, I delivered them myself.

Yorkshire Ambulance sent us a pic.

Before I took control, well I was not in control.

88495B8D-7C4A-4459-9F91-554BE629F05A.jpeg
That's amazing how they've even managed to get PPE on the ambulance too..

Spijed
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Spijed » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm

From today’s Daily Telegraph

A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany’s most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

Initial results showed far more previously undetected cases than expected. The scientists found 15 per cent of those tested had antibodies to the virus.

This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

“The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity,” Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. “With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk.”

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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:24 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm
From today’s Daily Telegraph

A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany’s most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

Initial results showed far more previously undetected cases than expected. The scientists found 15 per cent of those tested had antibodies to the virus.

This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

“The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity,” Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. “With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk.”
When I read that 15% is ‘not that far’ from 60% I start to doubt the accuracy of the research!
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:06 pm

England reports 765 new coronavirus deaths
NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus.

It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April.

The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March.

These figures are markedly down on yesterday's,and they include deaths which sadly occurred some weeks ago.is this a sign that the curve is flattening,or is that too optimistic.

Wales records 41 more coronavirus deaths
Health officials in Wales have reported a further 41 patients have died after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths there to 286.

Scotland death toll rises by 81
A further 81 people have died with coronavirus in Scotland, according to figures from the Scottish government.

The latest daily death toll takes the total number of deaths in the country to 447.

The total number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Scotland is now 4,957, after a rise of 392 in a day.

I haven't seen any numbers for NI/ROI today yet.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:50 pm

martin_p wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:24 pm
When I read that 15% is ‘not that far’ from 60% I start to doubt the accuracy of the research!
I'm still going to go with "He probably knows what he's talking about and that's why he's on the study and not you".

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:15 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:50 pm
I'm still going to go with "He probably knows what he's talking about and that's why he's on the study and not you".
It will be interesting to see what the Gov. does with the findings of his study and I certainly hope he is right. I like the info for sure and it's a very small piece in the bigger jigsaw that makes up the global jigsaw we are watching being built.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:40 pm

this article gives a somewhat different perspective within the US and the differences in the US/UK, thought it was worth reading:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52216777
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:12 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm
... suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent
This (up to 1%) is where the science has always been.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:21 pm

KateR wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:40 pm
this article gives a somewhat different perspective within the US and the differences in the US/UK, thought it was worth reading:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52216777
We have now delivered 237 face shields so far, with loads of good feedback.

Sadly we received another order for 500 today from one charity, which takes us to just under 2000.

Once again thank you for your help.

8 more printers on order because of people like you who wanted to help.

Just to let you know any printers still in good condition once this is over will be donated to schools.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by LeadBelly » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:23 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm
From today’s Daily Telegraph

A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany’s most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

Initial results showed far more previously undetected cases than expected. The scientists found 15 per cent of those tested had antibodies to the virus.

This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

“The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity,” Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. “With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk.”
This is quite an interesting study though you can't with great confidence extrapolate too much from it as its very localised. There's quiet a bit of coverage in the German press about the study (based on the town of Gangelt near to Germany's border with Netherlands in Heinsberg region)). The first person in Germany to be admitted to intensive case (through CV) came from here and this place was badly hit after having a carnival.
There's a Guardian article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

It's probably not a message that the Government will want to put out but one of the findings is...."“One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,” said Prof Hendrik Streeck, a virologist at the University of Bonn whose team of researchers has spent the last week carrying out the first “Covid-19 case cluster study” in Heinsberg.
“Most infections didn’t take place in supermarkets or restaurants,” Streeck said of his preliminary findings. In Heinsberg, his team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects."


If its is generally as high as 15%, a widely available test to discover "the immune" would be a great leap forward - allowing many to get back to work and maybe donate plasma to help treat the sufferers.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:36 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm
...suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent”
That's been the case in a few small scale studies where everyone in a population has been tested rather than just really ill people in a hospital.

If 8,000 have died in the UK - and it'll probably be way more than that when the ONS releases figures next week - then that would mean around 1.5m infected in the UK. Unless my maths is way out, it could be.

Or would that be 1.5m were already infected three or four weeks ago when those dying this week became infected? Couldn't even guess at a number now if that's the case. It's possible the 'herd immunity' thing could end up being a factor before we ever get mass vaccination whether we like it or not.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by LeadBelly » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:53 pm

8000 is 0.37% of 2-1 / 2.2 million so even better; especially, as you say, the death figures are lagging the number of infections.

We dont know how long immunity lasts (or if the virus will mutate) of course - so some sort of ongoing flu-vaccine type solution is the best out.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:03 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:50 pm
I'm still going to go with "He probably knows what he's talking about and that's why he's on the study and not you".
I don’t need to be on any sort of study or have any sort of expertise to know that 15% isn’t close to 60%, it’s just maths!

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Elizabeth » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:04 pm

Don't know how the Carers Clap went near you but a great turn out here. The best one yet!

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:07 pm

martin_p wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:03 pm
I don’t need to be on any sort of study or have any sort of expertise to know that 15% isn’t close to 60%, it’s just maths!
I don't understand epidemiology well enough to make that judgement. Like on everything else to do with this, I'll just go with the expert.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Rileybobs » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:09 pm

Elizabeth wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:04 pm
Don't know how the Carers Clap went near you but a great turn out here. The best one yet!
The clap has evolved into letting fireworks off near me, which is a bit annoying when it wakes my little boy up in tears.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:10 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:23 pm


...could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects."[/i]
This too is backing up what's been said before. By the end of this, a lot of hands will have been washed a lot of times for no major benefit is my guess. But I'm still doing it since it's recommended.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:10 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:09 pm
The clap has evolved into letting fireworks off near me, which is a bit annoying when it wakes my little boy up in tears.
They're probably having a fireworks party to let them off.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:12 pm

Elizabeth wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:04 pm
Don't know how the Carers Clap went near you but a great turn out here. The best one yet!
One of the neighbours was banging his frying pan and then letting off a loud firework.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Spijed » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:12 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:10 pm
This too is backing up what's been said before. By the end of this, a lot of hands will have been washed a lot of times for no major benefit is my guess. But I'm still doing it since it's recommended.
How do the think it is spread in the majority of cases if it isn't via your hands?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Elizabeth » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:13 pm

Yeh, not keen on the fireworks, had them 2 weeks running.
I wonder which retail outlet selling essential items do they get them from?

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