Covid-19

[Lowbankclaret]

Going to come as a nasty shock to some when the virus is over and 1,600 people still die every day.

So what’s your acceptable daily death rate from Covid - 19?.

[Lowbankclaret]

Worrying development in South Korea where 91 people yesterday who tested positive had already had the disease.

If true it’s a worrying development. If it’s like seasonal flu where you can catch all three.
Your herd immunity goes out the window as having caught the mild strain means you could still catch the deadly one.

Let’s hope that not the case.

[thatdberight]

There are reports saying there are three strains, I guess you can catch all three.

Nobody's saying that about these cases. Apart from you.

[paulatky]

What ?
How exactly do you think a bank holiday impacts the reported numbers ?

We will have to wait and see. But it been recognised that some deaths at the weekend have not been reported until the following week. Guess a bank holiday will the same

[paulatky]

Newspapers owned by billionaires advocate for policies that benefit the rich. They act as propaganda for the Tory Party, which looks after the interests of the rich. These papers have all been attacked to a greater or lesser degree in the recent Leveson Inquiry, where it came out that many papers were breaking the law - hacking phones, bribing police, one paper was shut down, and then the Tory Party shut the inquiry down before it could consider more serious concerns - again looking after the interests or the rich men who support the party. The Guardian wasn’t dragged into all of this. Why do the rightwing rags feed readers biased nonsense? Because they and the government collude in the interests of themselves - the rich.

Who owns the Guardian, and in whose interests do they write “biased” articles? There is nobody - no group, no person set to gain from the editorial stance of the Guardian / Observer. Just as it’s funded by a wide variety of people, it acts in the interests of a wide variety of people. It is not spinning for rich spivs - and that is our choice, between right wing propaganda, or news.

I thought these political posts had been moved to a thread of their own

[thatdberight]

So what’s your acceptable daily death rate from Covid - 19?.

What a facile question. Given that we don't have all the economic data, health system data and the detailed projections of the deaths, only an idiot would answer it.

But it's not zero.

[Lowbankclaret]

Nobody's saying that about these cases. Apart from you.

And the poster I quoted.

[NottsClaret]

So what’s your acceptable daily death rate from Covid - 19?.

One less than the huge numbers sadly now destined to suffer and die from the inevitable vastly reduced spending budgets due to the economic carnage we’re seeing today.

It’s a balance, which of course is trickier than simplified, mawkish soundbites.

We all die Lowbank, giving as many as possible as long as possible is the aim. Not getting one particular number out of many to zero.

[Lowbankclaret]

What a facile question. Given that we don't have all the economic data, health system data and the detailed projections of the deaths, only an idiot would answer it.

But it's not zero.

It’s interesting how many people on here just attack other posters.
Belittle the posts of others.
Don’t post anything constructive.

And will never actually answer a question.

[Lowbankclaret]

I will find it really interesting what the views are in five to six weeks when we are on lockdown.

[Lowbankclaret]

Having spoken to many managers of care homes and funeral directors. It is scary out there for them.
And guess what, none of the deaths are counted.


Coronavirus: Nurses in care homes fighting on a forgotten frontline

[RingoMcCartney]

I will find it really interesting what the views are in five to six weeks when we are on lockdown.

Just been speaking to a staff member at Woodside Care Home in padiham. Theyd be seriously intested in those face masks that you've posted that look a bit like a welders mask that you're knocking out. They're fine for gloves, aprons and surgical masks but would definitely be interested in the ones that have perspex covering the eyes.

[thatdberight]

It’s interesting how many people on here just attack other posters.
Belittle the posts of others.
Don’t post anything constructive.

And will never actually answer a question.

It's because I'm not an idiot prone to making pronouncements on things I know nothing about. It's a mark of the stupidity of our era that people feel compelled to give their view on things that they have only the vaguest grasp of. I'm not joining in.

[thatdberight]

Deaths that occur outside hospitals are counted in ONS statistics. These are not the same statistics as are given in daily government briefings which, for the sake of speedy reporting, are compiled from hospitals alone.

Just posting this in case anyone is tempted to believe lies that are told about them not being counted.

[thatdberight]

And the poster I quoted.

No. Literally just you talking about three strains in the context of the South Korean repeat positive tests. Unless you were quoting yourself. But we know that's an entirely unreliable source.

[Spijed]

I will find it really interesting what the views are in five to six weeks when we are on lockdown.

Aren't we in lockdown now?

[Lord Rothbury]

Just been speaking to a staff member at Woodside Care Home in padiham. Theyd be seriously intested in those face masks that you've posted that look a bit like a welders mask that you're knocking out. They're fine for gloves, aprons and surgical masks but would definitely be interested in the ones that have perspex covering the eyes.

My wife is returning to Woodside next week ,she retired last year, to fill odd shifts where there is shortage of careers.

[Lowbankclaret]

You must have missed this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... virus.html

Or perhaps this on

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/coronavi ... -12536852/

[thatdberight]

For anybody interested.

That viruses mutate and there are different strains already isn't news or surprising. There are no scientific references to these multiple strains being a factor in the possible 91 "reinfection" cases in South Korea. Some people who make things up may suggest that - but there's no evidence, nor even a suggestion, this is relevant from anyone credible. Only liars on internet message boards.

[RingoMcCartney]

My wife is returning to Woodside next week ,she retired last year, to fill odd shifts where there is shortage of careers.

It's a good care home. We moved my mum from another place after waiting a good while on a waiting list. Better staff, better food and a more caring respectful environment.

Like I say they're fine for PPE , but would genuinely be really keen on those face masks Lowbank claret has been knocking out.

[tiger76]

Breakdown of UK patients in critical care
Richard Warry

BBC News

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Of these patients, 871 have died, 818 have been discharged, and 2,194 were last reported as still receiving critical care.

The average age of the patients was 59.8 years. Some 72.5% were male, and 27.5% female. Some 66.4% were white, 14.4% Asian, 11.9% black, and 1.3% of mixed race.

Nearly three-quarters of the patients had a body mass index higher than the recommended healthy level of 18.5 to 25. Some 35% had a BMI of 25 to 30 - the overweight range. And 38.5% had a BMI over more than 30 - putting them in the obese range.
93.2% had previously been able to live without assistance in daily activities. Only 6.7% previously needed some assistance, and just three needed total assistance.
Focusing on the 1,053 patients who needed advanced respiratory support, the average age on admission was 61.9 years. 73% were male, 27% female. Out of this group, 66.3% died, and 33.7% are alive.
Examining the final outcome for patients admitted to critical care, for the 133 aged 16-39, 76.7% were discharged alive, and 23.3% died. For the 484 aged 60-69, 43.6% were discharged alive, and 56.4% died. For the 434 aged 70-79, 31.3% were discharged alive, and 68.7% died. And for the 107 aged over 80, 27.1% were discharged alive, and 72.9% died.

Some surprising numbers there at 1st glance,now of course without any detailed context,i.e any pre-existing health conditions,smokers/non smokers it doesn't paint the complete picture,but it's the most information that's been released yet.

[tim_noone]

Having spoken to many managers of care homes and funeral directors. It is scary out there for them.
And guess what, none of the deaths are counted.


Coronavirus: Nurses in care homes fighting on a forgotten frontline

Just to redress the Balance on deaths not counted in care homes.a family member works as a cook in one housing 64 ...theres been one resident die in 3months he tells me nothing related to the virus.... fingers crossed it stays that way.

[Spijed]

The more you read about it letting the Cheltenham festival go ahead was a completely idiotic and irresponsible thing for the government to do.

[thatdberight]

Breakdown of UK patients in critical care
Richard Warry

BBC News

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Of these patients, 871 have died, 818 have been discharged, and 2,194 were last reported as still receiving critical care.

The average age of the patients was 59.8 years. Some 72.5% were male, and 27.5% female. Some 66.4% were white, 14.4% Asian, 11.9% black, and 1.3% of mixed race.

Nearly three-quarters of the patients had a body mass index higher than the recommended healthy level of 18.5 to 25. Some 35% had a BMI of 25 to 30 - the overweight range. And 38.5% had a BMI over more than 30 - putting them in the obese range.
93.2% had previously been able to live without assistance in daily activities. Only 6.7% previously needed some assistance, and just three needed total assistance.
Focusing on the 1,053 patients who needed advanced respiratory support, the average age on admission was 61.9 years. 73% were male, 27% female. Out of this group, 66.3% died, and 33.7% are alive.
Examining the final outcome for patients admitted to critical care, for the 133 aged 16-39, 76.7% were discharged alive, and 23.3% died. For the 484 aged 60-69, 43.6% were discharged alive, and 56.4% died. For the 434 aged 70-79, 31.3% were discharged alive, and 68.7% died. And for the 107 aged over 80, 27.1% were discharged alive, and 72.9% died.

Some surprising numbers there at 1st glance,now of course without any detailed context,i.e any pre-existing health conditions,smokers/non smokers it doesn't paint the complete picture,but it's the most information that's been released yet.

Like you say, fascinating but you'd need to be expert to draw much from it.

Ethnicity is weighted away from white people - but then the outbreak has been weighted towards major cities, especially London so probably representative. Weight doesn't look like a major risk factor. Really severe co-morbidities are low but the definition appears to, for example, exclude diabetes.

What really doesn't help is being a man. 72.5% male.

[TVC15]

The more you read about it letting the Cheltenham festival go ahead was a completely idiotic and irresponsible thing for the government to do.

Spot on.
Doubt we would / could ever find out how many cases and deaths directly resulted from Cheltenham but I’d imagine the number would be pretty shocking.
The pictures of the crowds are incredible and to think that was only one month ago.

[RingoMcCartney]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntist.html


China muzzled its Bat Woman: Beijing authorities hushed up the findings of a scientist who unlocked the genetic make-up of the coronavirus within days of the outbreak - which is vital for tests and vaccines


A Chinese scientist who is the one of the world's leading experts on coronaviruses was 'muzzled' after unravelling the genetic composition of the new disease, which is crucial for developing diagnostic tests and vaccines. The revelation will fuel fresh concerns over China's cover-up of the pandemic after it erupted in the city of Wuhan. Critics argue that Communist Party chiefs frustrated efforts to contain the outbreak before it exploded around the world. At the centre of the new claims is Shi Zhengli (pictured right), known as China's 'Bat Woman' after years spent on difficult virus-hunting expeditions in dank caves that have led to a series of important scientific discoveries. The virologist was called back to her highsecurity laboratory in Wuhan at the end of last year after a mysterious new respiratory condition in the city was identified as a novel coronavirus - and within three days she completed its gene sequencing.

[thatdberight]

The more you read about it letting the Cheltenham festival go ahead was a completely idiotic and irresponsible thing for the government to do.

Have you got an article?

[Spijed]

Have you got an article?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chel ... -vbzmn5p9q

[Devils_Advocate]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntist.html


China muzzled its Bat Woman: Beijing authorities hushed up the findings of a scientist who unlocked the genetic make-up of the coronavirus within days of the outbreak - which is vital for tests and vaccines


A Chinese scientist who is the one of the world's leading experts on coronaviruses was 'muzzled' after unravelling the genetic composition of the new disease, which is crucial for developing diagnostic tests and vaccines. The revelation will fuel fresh concerns over China's cover-up of the pandemic after it erupted in the city of Wuhan. Critics argue that Communist Party chiefs frustrated efforts to contain the outbreak before it exploded around the world. At the centre of the new claims is Shi Zhengli (pictured right), known as China's 'Bat Woman' after years spent on difficult virus-hunting expeditions in dank caves that have led to a series of important scientific discoveries. The virologist was called back to her highsecurity laboratory in Wuhan at the end of last year after a mysterious new respiratory condition in the city was identified as a novel coronavirus - and within three days she completed its gene sequencing.

What are the credible sources you have reviewed around this subject?

My brief research shows it seems to be rooted in a youtube video by epoch times who are though to be responsible for pushing a lot of pro Trump propaganda on social media and even had their ability to buy adds cut off by Facebook which takes some doing

All the discussion and commentary about this theory seems to be by random nobody's discussed in a conspiracy theory kind mode

Not saying it isn't true but I personally wouldn't be throwing stuff like this about unless I had some real credible sources supporting it

Interested to read a bit more if there is anybody you can link me to worth reading?

[thatdberight]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chel ... -vbzmn5p9q

Thanks.

[RingoMcCartney]

What are the credible sources you have reviewed around this subject?

My brief research shows it seems to be rooted in a youtube video by epoch times who are though to be responsible for pushing a lot of pro Trump propaganda on social media and even had their ability to buy adds cut off by Facebook which takes some doing

All the discussion and commentary about this theory seems to be by random nobody's discussed in a conspiracy theory kind mode

Not saying it isn't true but I personally wouldn't be throwing stuff like this about unless I had some real credible sources supporting it

Interested to read a bit more if there is anybody you can link me to worth reading?

None.

Just thought it was interesting that's all. Take it with a pinch of salt if you like. Up to you....

Its going to be in tomorrow's Sunday Mail I guess. You could always ask them for further information regarding the article.

[Spijed]

I just had another look at this. Their data is days out of date and their projection for today is towards twice the actual number of deaths. I think I would cut this source to "junk" status - certainly as far as UK stats go.

The Guardian talks about their data.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-deaths

[Devils_Advocate]

None.

Just thought it was interesting that's all. Take it with a pinch of salt if you like. Up to you....

Its going to be in tomorrow's Sunday Mail I guess. You could always ask them for further information regarding the article.

The Mail article is a clickbait piece and doesn't provide and references or sources. On its own its got as much credibility as a faked moon landing or a 9/11 was an inside job story

If they come up with something more factual when they run the full article tomorrow please let me know cos Id be interested to look into this story further if there is any substance behind it

[Taffy on the wing]

Having spoken to many managers of care homes and funeral directors. It is scary out there for them.
And guess what, none of the deaths are counted.


Coronavirus: Nurses in care homes fighting on a forgotten frontline

I don't understand why they don't count these.........same in the US.

[RingoMcCartney]

The Mail article is a clickbait piece and doesn't provide and references or sources. On its own its got as much credibility as a faked moon landing or a 9/11 was an inside job story

If they come up with something more factual when they run the full article tomorrow please let me know cos Id be interested to look into this story further if there is any substance behind it

I'm busy tomorrow. Stuff to do.

You could always check it out yourself.

If you have internet access, it'll make it so much easier?

[Devils_Advocate]

I'm busy tomorrow. Stuff to do.

You could always check it out yourself.

If you have internet access, it'll make it so much easier?

Its ok, Ive no interest in reading that rag tomorrow. If there's any substance to the story it will get picked up by all MSM but its good to know that the level of care you place on the information you spread is negligible at best

Enjoy your busy Easter Sunday

[RingoMcCartney]

Its ok, Ive no interest in reading that rag tomorrow. If there's any substance to the story it will get picked up by all MSM but its good to know that the level of care you place on the information you spread is negligible at best

Enjoy your busy Easter Sunday

To be fair, you did ask

"What are the credible sources you have reviewed around this subject?

To which I answered, honestly , "none"

I also pointed out-

"Just thought it was interesting that's all. Take it with a pinch of salt if you like. Up to you..."

If the story gets any legs we can both come back to it. If it doesn't, I'm sure it'll go into the messageboards overflowing drawer marked "forgotten"..

Happy Easter to you and yours.

[AndrewJB]

I'm busy tomorrow. Stuff to do.

You could always check it out yourself.

If you have internet access, it'll make it so much easier?

The least you could do is say; "What do you think of this?" Rather than post it as fact.

It's unsurprising that local government officials in a provincial city within an authoritarian country stifle a scientist. Check out Canada, Australia, and the US - which are supposed to be democratic for other examples of the same.

We should still applaud the Mail's attempt at journalism, and look forward to future endeavours such as explaining how our government so completely screwed up the reaction to this virus that we had thousands of needless deaths.

Don't hold your breath though...

[Spiral]

I'm not reading the thread at this point but just jumping in to say I found it wonderful to see Priti Patel channelling Diane Abbott and announcing the total number of UK Covid-19 tests carried out as three-hundred-billion-thirty-four-million-nine-hundred-and-seventy-four-thousand (300,034???974,000 syntax error).

Our Home Secretary, everyone. We're SAFE!!! gOOD JOB aBBOTT isunt arownd.

n
umbers

[thatdberight]

The Guardian talks about their data.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-deaths

Thanks.

It is interesting that a seemingly credible source was basically shovelling garbage into a model and publishing it with no QC or validation. A point to remember with all forecasts on this.

[thatdberight]

I'm not reading the thread at this point but just jumping in to say I found it wonderful to see Priti Patel channelling Diane Abbott and announcing the total number of UK Covid-19 tests carried out as three-hundred-billion-thirty-four-million-nine-hundred-and-seventy-four-thousand (300,034???974,000 syntax error).

Our Home Secretary, everyone. We're SAFE!!! gOOD JOB aBBOTT isunt arownd.

n
umbers

Eat that, Hancock, with your measly 100,000 target!

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

I'd be interested to see people's thoughts on the different death rates of people who have tested positive. This takes out of the equation the untested, asymptomatic folks. For reference I'm using data from this website, which I believe is good data coming from Johns Hopkins Univ in Baltimore. The one thing I wish it had was a total number of US deaths to make it an easier comparison. But looking at CNN's data it shows 18, 693 at the time I wrote this.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

That puts the US fatality rate at .037%. Again, this does not include asymptomatic cases or cases not tested so not a final number by any means. Doing the same math of UK cases I come up with a fatality rate of .12%. a rate of .1277% for Italy, and a rate of .0266% for Germany.

This is data from some of the countries that I believe the numbers for but it's interesting to me that they vary so widely. I do not believe the USA and Germany are especially more healthy (certainly not the obesity cursed USA or have markedly better health care available.

I'm truly not trying making a point, or scoring points, I'm just curious as to what the thoughts are from people from another country. I'm just searching for a reason that these countries who I believe have comparable health care, and who report their data as accurately as possible would have such a wide variance.

I'm not a maths specialist by any means, so perhaps I'm doing my figures wrong. I'm simply dividing deaths by cases tested positive.

Edit: Is it simply a question of people being tested? The number of tests available in the US is often reported as being low, often enough that I tend to believe it. But if that was the reason then I would have to believe that the number of tests available in the UK and Italy are much fewer.

Not sure if I've said before, but my view - and what I would hope to be the view of the relevant specialists - is that we can't talk about death rates with any certainty until we have longitudinal data about this disease (i.e. data which tracks the disease's virulence over a large sample over a long period of time). I'm not an epidemiologist to be clear so please take what I say with a pinch of salt (as you should anything you read on social media!)

All we have at the moment are estimates. They're unlikely to be hugely wide of the mark, but when .01% can mean thousands of deaths they obviously matter. We have longitudinal

Any rate that might be suggested for different countries at this point must come with the caveats that:

i) We don't know how many people in that country have been infected.

Even countries with superior testing capabilities to the UK are not able to test every single member of their population. That may never happen, instead, I imagine epidemiologists will be using some variety of Bayesian probability to determine how many people are likely to have been infected but shown no/mild symptoms or had the disease but are not able to be tested due to technical limitations (availability of tests).

ii) We may not have accurate death rates for each country.

Even countries which are not intentionally misreporting their death rate, will have people dying outside of hospital who have not been tested for the disease and so who are not included in the official figures. This has happened in the UK for instance.

iii) Even the proportion of dead to the number of infected needs to be weighted against co-morbidities within the population (i.e. an older, more clinically unhealthy population will suffer more deaths)

[Inchy]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chel ... -vbzmn5p9q

I have seen patients who were at Cheltenham and they believed that’s where they caught it.

They were admitted to hospital 10 days after they went to the festival

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

I have seen 2 patients who were at Cheltenham and they believed that’s where they caught it.

They were admitted to hospital 10 days after they went to the festival

The government ****** this up. We're at 5 or 6th highest death toll worldwide at the moment. Right now they are panicking and ordering all hands to the pump. But they have cocked this up massively and they know it. Shout me down for being political or whatever but I don't see what other judgment you can arrive at.

[taio]

The Guardian talks about their data.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-deaths

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the data you linked.

Only had quick look at the article rather than the data that sits behind it. It says projected deaths for Italy is 20,000 and that's based on very recent actual data (to 9 April). This is surely rubbish.

What did you make of it?

[Bordeauxclaret]

So.... what does everyone think about national newspapers?

[Blackrod]

The more you read about it letting the Cheltenham festival go ahead was a completely idiotic and irresponsible thing for the government to do.

Thought this at the time. Completely irresponsible.

[quoonbeatz]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249 ... 28259.html

[Devils_Advocate]

That was an interesting read and this is exactly the kind of thing that really needs to be scrutinized as part of an official independent inquiry when all this is finally over

[taio]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249 ... 28259.html

Interesting read albeit very basic comparisons. Of course timing and rigour of social distancing important. No regard for population density, movement of people e.g. tourism or BME populations to name just a few of the other important influencing factors.