Covid-19

[FactualFrank]

Breakdown of UK patients in critical care
Richard Warry

BBC News

An analysis of 3,883 Covid-19 patients admitted to 229 critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland up to Thursday has been published by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre.

Of these patients, 871 have died, 818 have been discharged, and 2,194 were last reported as still receiving critical care.

The average age of the patients was 59.8 years. Some 72.5% were male, and 27.5% female. Some 66.4% were white, 14.4% Asian, 11.9% black, and 1.3% of mixed race.

Nearly three-quarters of the patients had a body mass index higher than the recommended healthy level of 18.5 to 25. Some 35% had a BMI of 25 to 30 - the overweight range. And 38.5% had a BMI over more than 30 - putting them in the obese range.
93.2% had previously been able to live without assistance in daily activities. Only 6.7% previously needed some assistance, and just three needed total assistance.
Focusing on the 1,053 patients who needed advanced respiratory support, the average age on admission was 61.9 years. 73% were male, 27% female. Out of this group, 66.3% died, and 33.7% are alive.
Examining the final outcome for patients admitted to critical care, for the 133 aged 16-39, 76.7% were discharged alive, and 23.3% died. For the 484 aged 60-69, 43.6% were discharged alive, and 56.4% died. For the 434 aged 70-79, 31.3% were discharged alive, and 68.7% died. And for the 107 aged over 80, 27.1% were discharged alive, and 72.9% died.

Some surprising numbers there at 1st glance,now of course without any detailed context,i.e any pre-existing health conditions,smokers/non smokers it doesn't paint the complete picture,but it's the most information that's been released yet.

The one problem with that is they've used BMI. People can have a BMI that is higher than 25 and be perfectly healthy. So I'm not reading too much into that part of the results.

The race and male/female is interesting though.

[Spijed]

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the data you linked.

Only had quick look at the article rather than the data that sits behind it. It says projected deaths for Italy is 20,000 and that's based on very recent actual data (to 9 April). This is surely rubbish.

What did you make of it?

It does seem odd as it flat lines the deaths for countries such as Spain as well, especially as their data analysis is supposed to be highly regarded.

[Devils_Advocate]

It's in the article that he was delivering medicine.

Jenrick is not a man to be trusted one thinks

[quoonbeatz]

Interesting read albeit very basic comparisons. Of course timing and rigour of social distancing important. No regard for population density and movement of people e.g. tourism.

Germany and South Korea are both more dense than the UK. Earlier lockdown and proper testing would have done a huge amount to render density/travel almost irrelevant.

Instead we had Cheltenham, huge gigs still going ahead and our airports are still open with no testing for passengers.

Imagine dying because you went to a Stereophonics gig. Imagine dying because someone you know went to a Stereophonics gig.

[taio]

Germany and South Korea are both more dense than the UK. Earlier lockdown and proper testing would have done a huge amount to render density/travel almost irrelevant.

Instead we had Cheltenham, huge gigs still going ahead and our airports are still open with no testing for passengers.

Imagine dying because you went to a Stereophonics gig. Imagine dying because someone you know went to a Stereophonics gig.

The only point I was making was there are a broad range of factors and the article you posted was too basic.

[quoonbeatz]

The only point I was making was there are a broad range of factors and the article you posted was too basic.

It isn't basic but, that said, sometimes the basic points are the most salient.

Basically, on the most basic level, it simply exposes the basic errors that have been made by the UK.

[taio]

It isn't basic but, that said, sometimes the basic points are the most salient.

Basically, on the most basic level, it simply exposes the basic errors that have been made by the UK.

Fair enough if you don't think it's basic. It would be interesting to look at regional per capita rates because my assumption is regions like the South West will be low under the same policies. Might be wrong on that because I haven't seen such data, but if not it would indicate there are a broad range of factors that influence per capita mortality rates.

[TheFamilyCat]

Germany and South Korea are both more dense than the UK. Earlier lockdown and proper testing would have done a huge amount to render density/travel almost irrelevant.

Instead we had Cheltenham, huge gigs still going ahead and our airports are still open with no testing for passengers.

Imagine dying because you went to a Stereophonics gig. Imagine dying because someone you know went to a Stereophonics gig.

I'd rather die than go to a Stereophonics gig

[NottsClaret]

Do we reckon we’ll be able to ‘shield’ vulnerable people until there’s a vaccine? Some optimistic talk of that being in 6 months but generally accepted to be 12-18 months. That’s a long time.

Also, isn’t the whole ‘stay home, stay safe’ thing about preventing the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in corridors?

Because that seems to have just about been achieved, albeit a bit last minute and frantic. People getting infected is inevitable, the curve in South Korea and Germany will be flatter but the virus isn’t disappearing there either. People will go on getting infected and dying in those countries too, albeit with a longer, flatter peak.

[Spijed]

Do we reckon we’ll be able to ‘shield’ vulnerable people until there’s a vaccine? Some optimistic talk of that being in 6 months but generally accepted to be 12-18 months. That’s a long time.

Also, isn’t the whole ‘stay home, stay safe’ thing about preventing the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in corridors?

Because that seems to have just about been achieved, albeit a bit last minute and frantic. People getting infected is inevitable, the curve in South Korea and Germany will be flatter but the virus isn’t disappearing there either. People will go on getting infected and dying in those countries too, albeit with a longer, flatter peak.

One thing you've missed in the timeline are available treatments with existing drugs. They will be developed far quicker than any vaccine and the mortality rates will drop as it'll be easier to treat people.

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

We will be alright, just as we were alright after the plague. As a species.

The calculation was not how many lives can we save, but how many lives can we lose and still be electable.

[Spijed]

The only point I was making was there are a broad range of factors and the article you posted was too basic.

But what possible excuse can be used for the Cheltenham festival, for example.

That was reckless, almost as if lives didn't/don't matter to some on government.

[TheFamilyCat]

But what possible excuse can be used for the Cheltenham festival, for example.

That was reckless, almost as if lives didn't/don't matter to some on government.

Newmarket is in Matt Hancock's constituency. He wouldn't have been popular there had it been cancelled.

[thatdberight]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249 ... 28259.html

Interesting - although obviously a lay person / "isn't it obvious" take since, for example, the science is still saying closing schools is not a material factor.

[taio]

But what possible excuse can be used for the Cheltenham festival, for example.

That was reckless, almost as if lives didn't/don't matter to some on government.

I don't think it should have gone ahead.

[CrosspoolClarets]

No doubt Germany has done really well in handling this, but the jury is out with other European nations.

I’d rather not stand in judgement against our government until the next election in 2024 when we will know the full effect of this, including economic damage and resulting deaths and / or poverty.

I don’t think it is an unreasonable figure of 150,000 that papers have suggested the government is discussing, i.e. indirect deaths due to this. I worry about mental health, obesity, diabetes, side effects from intensive care treatments, unemployment, collapse in child protection.

I worry about the food supply chain - supermarkets may be fine, but food still has to be produced and transported to them. People have to grow it, pick it, transport it. These workers often live in conditions such as bunkhouses where it is prime super-spreader territory. Food inflation is likely to skyrocket, and poor people will bear the brunt.

So yes, Public Health England not planning ahead for PPE and / or community testing is likely to be a huge error, and government not forcing them to use private labs is likely to be another error rather than the NHS obsession with command and control within the public sector (an obsession I know very well).

But to judge government at this early stage is a bit naive of us, there are too many variables in play, and other than for the unlucky ones who get seriously ill, Covid is not the biggest of them.

[quoonbeatz]

Yes, we should probably wait 4 years and not ask questions like "if we took the right actions at the right time (as the government keep saying we did) why are we on course for the highest death toll in Europe?"

[thatdberight]

No doubt Germany has done really well in handling this, but the jury is out with other European nations.

I’d rather not stand in judgement against our government until the next election in 2024 when we will know the full effect of this, including economic damage and resulting deaths and / or poverty.

I don’t think it is an unreasonable figure of 150,000 that papers have suggested the government is discussing, i.e. indirect deaths due to this. I worry about mental health, obesity, diabetes, side effects from intensive care treatments, unemployment, collapse in child protection.

I worry about the food supply chain - supermarkets may be fine, but food still has to be produced and transported to them. People have to grow it, pick it, transport it. These workers often live in conditions such as bunkhouses where it is prime super-spreader territory. Food inflation is likely to skyrocket, and poor people will bear the brunt.

So yes, Public Health England not planning ahead for PPE and / or community testing is likely to be a huge error, and government not forcing them to use private labs is likely to be another error rather than the NHS obsession with command and control within the public sector (an obsession I know very well).

But to judge government at this early stage is a bit naive of us, there are too many variables in play, and other than for the unlucky ones who get seriously ill, Covid is not the biggest of them.

Agree with all that. Our government will have made mistakes. And will make more. And will have made mistakes going back many years. Our Civil Service will make mistakes. The NHS will make mistakes. The scientists advising the government will have made mistakes. We, as a society, will have made mistakes - seemingly unrelated - that transcend this particular short period when this has transpired. I could say what I think some of them are but I'd be in danger of just repeating my own socio-political views.I know what I think of posts that do that by other posters.

This will have to come out in the wash and I'm confident it will.

[thatdberight]

Yes, we should probably wait 4 years and not ask questions like "if we took the right actions at the right time (as the government keep saying we did) why are we on course for the highest death toll in Europe?"

You suggest we should ask them when we can't answer them?

[CombatClaret]

But what possible excuse can be used for the Cheltenham festival, for example.
That was reckless, almost as if lives didn't/don't matter to some on government.

Because 'Britain soldiers on' etc etc exceptionalism blah blah.
We won't be like those silly Italians. Plus there's a lot of money at stake!

[quoonbeatz]

You suggest we should ask them when we can't answer them?

What?

[RingoMcCartney]

The least you could do is say; "What do you think of this?" Rather than post it as fact.

It's unsurprising that local government officials in a provincial city within an authoritarian country stifle a scientist. Check out Canada, Australia, and the US - which are supposed to be democratic for other examples of the same.

We should still applaud the Mail's attempt at journalism, and look forward to future endeavours such as explaining how our government so completely screwed up the reaction to this virus that we had thousands of needless deaths.

Don't hold your breath though...

Excuse me your Guardianess!

I do apologise! It was remiss of me not to run it past you, the UTC messageboard Central Bureau, Information, Thought and Truth minister!!

How the hell do you know I "posted it as fact!?" Do you have extrasensory perception or summat!

Hope I'm not going to fast tracked to your local Gulag!?

I simply spotted it and thought others may find it interesting. Unlike your good self , I'd prefer to let others use their own judgement as to whether an article is fact or fake.

You see Andrew, there are lots of people out there who choose not to be spoon fed far left propaganda from their newspaper. I know! Unbelievable isn't it!

[CombatClaret]

Agree with all that. Our government will have made mistakes. And will make more. And will have made mistakes going back many years. Our Civil Service will make mistakes. The NHS will make mistakes. The scientists advising the government will have made mistakes. We, as a society, will have made mistakes - seemingly unrelated - that transcend this particular short period when this has transpired. I could say what I think some of them are but I'd be in danger of just repeating my own socio-political views.I know what I think of posts that do that by other posters.

This will have to come out in the wash and I'm confident it will.

After Grenfell & Russian Interference I have zero faith in this Government's ability to self reflect or apportion blame/responsibility. It will take years and in all that time they can just trot out when questioned:
"I think it's inappropriate of me to comment while there is an ongoing inquiry..."

To advocate delay is to know that the questions will never truly and properly be answered or at least no one responsible will be blamed.

[thatdberight]

Enjoying this thread this morning.

[RingoMcCartney]

The least you could do is say; "What do you think of this?" Rather than post it as fact.

It's unsurprising that local government officials in a provincial city within an authoritarian country stifle a scientist. Check out Canada, Australia, and the US - which are supposed to be democratic for other examples of the same.

We should still applaud the Mail's attempt at journalism, and look forward to future endeavours such as explaining how our government so completely screwed up the reaction to this virus that we had thousands of needless deaths.

Don't hold your breath though...

Talking of countries and their scientists.

Talking of how governments have " completely screwed up their reaction to the virus."

The EU's Top Medical Man has jacked in. Why?


https://www.ft.com/content/f94725c8-e03 ... 046ae78e95

The president of the European Research Council — the EU’s top scientist — has resigned after failing to persuade Brussels to set up a large-scale scientific programme to fight Covid-19.

“I have been extremely disappointed by the European response to Covid-19,” he said in a statement to the Financial Times. “I arrived at the ERC a fervent supporter of the EU [but] the Covid-19 crisis completely changed my views, though the ideals of international collaboration I continue to support with enthusiasm.”

Meanwhile, according to YouGov, as at 7th April, our own governments approval ratings are at record levels.

Keep well and stay safe Andrew

[thatdberight]

The one problem with that is they've used BMI. People can have a BMI that is higher than 25 and be perfectly healthy. So I'm not reading too much into that part of the results.

The race and male/female is interesting though.

You can be heavier and healthy but in general it's a "bad thing". However, the percentage of people with higher BMI going into critical care pretty much mirrors the general population so far - suggesting it's not much of a risk factor (to a layman's eyes).

[TVC15]

Probably won’t be the only thing at record levels in Europe by the end of this month.

[thatdberight]

The EU's Top Medical Man has jacked in. Why?

Not that I trust either side to tell the truth, but you should at least disclose that the body he chaired claim that he'd already been sacked for spending too much time on his other interests.

[RingoMcCartney]

Not that I trust either side to tell the truth, but you should at least disclose that the body he chaired claim that he'd already been sacked for spending too much time on his other interests.

Well, of course, in a desperate, face saving exercise, they would say that wouldn't they!! Hold the front page!

Bloody hell! Another one telling me what I should and shouldn't post!



To be fair, if people find it interesting and want to dig into the story of the EUs to medical man walking over what he sees as its, poor handling of the pandemic They're free to do so.

[thatdberight]

Bloody hell! Another one telling me what I should and shouldn't post!

If everybody keeps telling you that your partial reporting of stories or posting dubious stories and then saying, "I just threw it in there. I wasn't saying it's true" makes you a non-credible source, perhaps it's true.

[RingoMcCartney]

If everybody keeps telling you that your partial reporting of stories or posting dubious stories and then saying, "I just threw it in there. I wasn't saying it's true" makes you a non-credible source, perhaps it's true.

"Everbody" keeps telling me? !


Anyway, if you think can be bothered trawling round the internet to find information to counterbalance what I'm posting. In order to get approval that I'm being whiter than white on neutrality and objectivity you're got another think coming.

I post links that I think are relevant, in good faith. There's a whole merry band on here are only too pleased to post links , that have the polar opposite view to mine. Good luck to them. That's how it works.

Long may it continue.




(dont be surprised if there's lot of "likes" under your post from the merry band, in an ," I'm Spartacus - like rush to prove the "everybody!?" quip wrong)

[Mala591]

I predict another 3 weeks of total lock down then a very gradual and quite complicated plan to return to some new kind of 'normality' (oxymoron?).

The elderly and those at high risk will continue with their 12 week lock down plan.

[TheFamilyCat]

I'm busy tomorrow. Stuff to do.

You could always check it out yourself.

If you have internet access, it'll make it so much easier?

Obviously not that busy.

[CombatClaret]

Well, of course, in a desperate, face saving exercise, they would say that wouldn't they!! Hold the front page!

Bloody hell! Another one telling e what I should and shouldn't post!

To be fair, if people find it interesting and want to dig into the story of the EUs to medical man walking over what he sees as its, poor handling of the pandemic They're free to do so.

As much as it suits your narrative he was not the 'EU's Top Medical Man'
He was the head of the European Research Council which has a broad scope from helping fund research into everything from insulating materials to galactic archaeology. They are a scientific body which does fund medical research but they are not a health organisation in any means.

[RingoMcCartney]

Obviously not that busy.

Oh dont worry, I can always find time for my care in the community role.

[ksrclaret]

Obviously not that busy.

Posting about politics on here all day is a very busy day, to be fair.

[quoonbeatz]

Fair play, he plays his role of patient very well indeed.

[thatdberight]

"Everbody" keeps telling me? !

No. Definitely Everybody*

What the left of the board (who seem to have woken up in a communal bad mood today) post as they twist themselves in contortions trying to find new ways of saying, "Tories eat babies" is irrelevant to your posts. Their way of thinking speaks for itself. Having a counterpoint of equally unhinged but less readable posts isn't "balance" in any helpful sense.

[RingoMcCartney]

As much as it suits your narrative he was not the 'EU's Top Medical Man'
He was the head of the European Research Council which has a broad scope from helping fund research into everything from insulating materials to galactic archaeology. They are a scientific body which does fund medical research but they are not a health organisation in any means.

I'd prefer to avoid a nitpicking fest to be honest. I'd have thought that if a guy is going to be held responsible for setting up a scientific program to combat the virus. It was reasonable to describe him as "the EUs Top Medical Man". If that's not acceptable I stand corrected. He's the EUs Top Scientist.


From the New European newspaper. The self confessed extreme europhile paper of choice.


"The head of the European Union’s top science organisation has left his job in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak - with the EU claiming fellow members had called forced him out.

Mauro Ferrari had only become president of the European Research Council on January 1, but a statement released to the media claimed he had resigned after being “extremely disappointed by the European response” to the pandemic.

He complained about running into institutional and political obstacles as he sought to swiftly set up a scientific program to combat the virus.


“I have seen enough of both the governance of science, and the political operations at the European Union,” he wrote.

“I have lost faith in the system itself.” "

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6598674





What ever you want call to him. He's seen enough of the EUs response.



He's gone......

[RingoMcCartney]

No. Definitely Everybody*

What the left of the board (who seem to have woken up in a communal bad mood today) post as they twist themselves in contortions trying to find new ways of saying, "Tories eat babies" is irrelevant to your posts. Their way of thinking speaks for itself. Having a counterpoint of equally unhinged but less readable posts isn't "balance" in any helpful sense.

Your definition of "everybody" is obviously a fairly loose one.

If you you dont like what I post, I presume nobody's putting a gun to your head. Dont read them.

Everybody's Happy!



Keep out of harm's way thatdberight, look after you and yours

[evensteadiereddie]

The EU response was for most member states to do their own thing but quickly.
We waited, changed our minds, losing time, losing lives and then scratted around for equipment and putting NHS lives at risk.

[Spijed]

UK could have Europe's worst coronavirus death rate, says adviser

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... mic-expert

If this does become the case then heads MUST roll

[Rileybobs]

Those of you who are saying that we shouldn’t be asking questions of the government need to ask yourselves if you would be affording the same leniency to a Labour government. Can you honestly say you would? There’s the obvious proven hypocrites on here who we know wouldn’t.

[CombatClaret]

Value of UK pandemic stockpile fell by 40% in six years

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -six-years

Accounts suggest funding for “stockpiled goods” that are “held for use in national emergencies” was increased between 2008 and 2011, when pandemic preparedness was identified as a national priority for the NHS. But since 2013 the value of the stockpile has fallen...

The stockpiled goods have shelf lives and so require frequent replenishment. According to the DHSC’s financial accounts, between 2011 and 2019 depletions of the emergency stockpile significantly outstripped the amount spent on adding new supplies to the reserves.

The government is refusing to release the official conclusions from Exercise Cygnus [2016], which have never been made public, but there are indications in reports by local authorities who participated in the exercise that PPE supplies were an area of concern.

[taio]

Those of you who are saying that we shouldn’t be asking questions of the government need to ask yourselves if you would be affording the same leniency to a Labour government. Can you honestly say you would? There’s the obvious proven hypocrites on here who we know wouldn’t.

Yes of course there should and will be a full inquiry so the UK can understand the mistakes and lessons. That has to occur when the time is right which isn't now.

[thatdberight]

Those of you who are saying that we shouldn’t be asking questions of the government need to ask yourselves if you would be affording the same leniency to a Labour government. Can you honestly say you would?

I'm certainly say we should ask questions of this government, governments before them, various quangos, the Civil Service, the NHS and our society as a whole.

Questions for now should be limited to those which help the now.

That's just common sense.

[CombatClaret]

Can we save it until the future when we can re-write the past in our interviews please?

[Rileybobs]

Yes of course there should and will be a full inquiry so the UK can understand the mistakes and lessons. That has to occur when the time is right which isn't now.

Why isn’t it the right time to ask those questions now?

[thatdberight]

UK could have Europe's worst coronavirus death rate, says adviser

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... mic-expert

If this does become the case then heads MUST roll

I think we can tell that much of that report is largely political. Why? Because it's still linking to the 66,000 deaths figure which has been superseded by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. That's a report dated today which is linking to a report which its own authors have now significantly updated and restated and accepted was flawed.

The Guardian is just The Islington Daily Mail.

[taio]

Why isn’t it the right time to ask those questions now?

People can ask the questions right now. But there often wont be answers. The focus needs to be on continuing to respond to the emergency.