Covid-19

[jackmiggins]

Thanks for your minimal thought Grumps. I’ve lived through many shifts in ‘accepted theories’ and know full well that any change can be achieved. I’be ‘come back’ this time....so good of you to entertain me with a tad of your time
Personally, I’m fuming with these revelations. Your bedroom buddies are liars without any reasonable doubt. Unforgivably previous politicians (whatever shade - I gave up on political ideals/politics many years ago) have meandered through their careers, with very little ability or care, to carry out their duties. I find this intolerable and negligent. If you don’t, I don’t particularly care

[Grumps]

Thanks for your minimal thought Grumps. I’ve lived through many shifts in ‘accepted theories’ and know full well that any change can be achieved. I’be ‘come back’ this time....so good of you to entertain me with a tad of your time
Personally, I’m fuming with these revelations. Your bedroom buddies are liars without any reasonable doubt. Unforgivably previous politicians (whatever shade - I gave up on political ideals/politics many years ago) have meandered through their careers, with very little ability or care, to carry out their duties. I find this intolerable and negligent. If you don’t, I don’t particularly care

Excellent. You still haven't answered the question, by which I take it you haven't one, you said you want Boris out, which if that's how you feel, fair enough, but back in the real world he would need replacing, yet you cannot come up with an alternative, apart from nicola, who you know Carnt happen
If you want a grown up discussion that's fine, but your waffling is getting boring.

[LoveCurryPies]

Front page of Daily Mail has a number of senior cabinet members (Iain Duncan Smith, Gove etc) wanting the lockdown lifting on May 11.

I said this was the planned date a couple of weeks ago.

What I didn’t say (because I thought it was rediculous) is a temporary 2 week lifting is being considered. A little time for all of us to let off steam, get out a bit and then go back into lockdown.

That would be absurd, wouldn’t it?

However, these are politicians making the decisions and when did logic ever play a part in what they decide.

Apparently, it’s because of a fear of social unrest and riots.

(don't blame me, it’s not my thinking)

[jackmiggins]

Incidentally, carnt isn’t a word. I have answered your infantile question, as you strangely acknowledge? When did I mention that I wanted any kind of discussion with you??
Was merely responding to you before you disappear under your stone

[RingoMcCartney]

As at 17th April 2020

From yougov-

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... asing-crit

"Brits are still supportive of the Government's coronavirus response despite mounting criticism over a lack of PPE and testing, YouGov's latest figures show 

There has been a notable uptick in criticism of the Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak this week. Both the press and opposition parties have been questioning the Government’s exit strategy, as well as whether they should be doing more to increase the number of tests and access to PPE equipment for staff in the NHS or care homes.

However, our latest polling shows that this has not translated into a drop in support for the Government. Two thirds (66%) still say the government is doing well at handling the outbreak, compared to just under three in ten (28%) who think they are handling it badly.

This is down slightly on the peak support of 72%, just after the lockdown began.

The small drop off we have seen has come almost entirely from Labour voters, signalling that this is potentially becoming more of a partisan issue. In our latest poll, 42% of Labour voters say the government is doing well, down 14% on three weeks ago, while 54% say they are doing badly, up 18% on three weeks ago."

Could be the increasingly well used line by labour politicians, is getting through?

"I dont want to turn this crisis a party political issue and attempt to make political capital out of it BUT..............".

[Grumps]

Incidentally, carnt isn’t a word. I have answered your infantile question, as you strangely acknowledge? When did I mention that I wanted any kind of discussion with you??
Was merely responding to you before you disappear under your stone

[jackmiggins]

Best we can possibly do is care for each other. Stay safe everyone x

[Darnhill Claret]

I’m not a political animal so this is a genuine question. If this is thought to be something that should cause a change of government due to a dereliction of duty, was there any political party calling for a ‘lockdown’ prior to when this government imposed one?
My thoughts of us ‘all working together’, sounds like ‘let’s not be a party of opposition until we are presented with a golden opportunity as mistakes will inevitably be made’. ‘Then we can pounce’.
Of course there is nothing to suggest that any political parties would react any differently.

[Grumps]

I’m not a political animal so this is a genuine question. If this is thought to be something that should cause a change of government due to a dereliction of duty, was there any political party calling for a ‘lockdown’ prior to when this government imposed one?
My thoughts of us ‘all working together’, sounds like ‘let’s not be a party of opposition until we are presented with a golden opportunity as mistakes will inevitably be made’. ‘Then we can pounce’.
Of course there is nothing to suggest that any political parties would react any differently.

Nobody will pounce till much later, they wouldn't want to be in power at this time
You would think other parties would have done exactly the same, as they would have been being advised by the same people.

[Devils_Advocate]

As at 15th April 2020

From yougov-

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/arti ... ect-those-

Three quarters of NHS staff fear for their own health and most are also worried about infecting those they live with, prompting 34% to change their housing arrangements

NHS staff have continued to raise concerns over the availability of personal protective equipment to prevent the spread of COVID-19 as they work on the front lines in the battle against the virus.

New YouGov polling of NHS workers now reveals that the vast majority are concerned for their own health, and others have had to alter their living arrangements to protect those they live with from the virus.

Most NHS workers are worried for their own health

Overall, 78% of NHS staff say they are worried for their personal health due to COVID-19, with 28% saying they are very worried. Only 22% say they aren’t worried for their health.

NHS staff are right on the frontline of this crisis and are truly the eyes and ears of the people at ground level as well as being the ones putting their own health and well being at risk

"I dont want to turn this crisis a party political issue and attempt to make political capital out of it BUT..............".

[LoveCurryPies]

Anyone honestly think a Corbin led government would been any better?

The man couldn’t even decide which side of the Brexit fence he should sit on.

[Rileybobs]

Anyone honestly think a Corbin led government would been any better?

The man couldn’t even decide which side of the Brexit fence he should sit on.

This is the problem. I’m not sure anyone is claiming that a Labour government would do better. They’re just questioning the current government. It’s not about which side you’re on, the current government should be held to account and they happen to be Conservatives.

[tiger76]

Oh! well this thread has improved my vocabulary anyway.

I now know detritus is a synonym for debris or waste,that's a new one to me,and i thought i was well versed in unusual words due to my crossword hobby.

And a gombeen is an Irish slang word with various meanings in English,but it tends to suggest a shady wheeler-dealer,think Arthur Daley in Minder,i never thought UTC had such erudite posters,it just goes to show you can't judge a book by it's cover.

As i stated recently if Boris falls on his sword,and i don't imagine he will for a minute,the probable replacements consist of Gove,Hunt,Raab,and Sunak's got to be a decent bet after his strong performances during this crisis,he's one of the few cabinet members to emerge with credit out of all this,these bizarre fantasies of military coups,or Nicola Sturgeon becoming the UK PM,are precisely that fantasies,there's no way a government with an 80 seat majority is going to be thrown out of office,for a start why would they call a snap election,we're not living in 2017 when Theresa May had a minority coalition propped up by the DUP,so that's a non-starter,now if people are suggesting certain cabinet members might lose their ministerial roles,then yes that's a possibility in the next reshuffle,as is a new PM,but the Conservatives will still remain in power,although their perceived mishandling of the current pandemic could come back to bite them on the bottom down the line,depends how the Great British view their actions,and we'll have to wait and see on that score.

[Grumps]

This is the problem. I’m not sure anyone is claiming that a Labour government would do better. They’re just questioning the current government. It’s not about which side you’re on, the current government should be held to account and they happen to be Conservatives.

And those suggesting Boris should be arrested and thrown in jail, I know its only on here, but I get the feeling they actually mean it.

[LoveCurryPies]

This is the problem. I’m not sure anyone is claiming that a Labour government would do better. They’re just questioning the current government. It’s not about which side you’re on, the current government should be held to account and they happen to be Conservatives.

Do you not think it might be best if all of their focus was on getting on with the job, than having to waste time defending every decision?

There will be plenty of time for analysis later.

(stay safe everyone. Hope to see you back on the Turf in a few weeks!)

[tiger76]

This is the problem. I’m not sure anyone is claiming that a Labour government would do better. They’re just questioning the current government. It’s not about which side you’re on, the current government should be held to account and they happen to be Conservatives.

In a liberal democracy any government has to be accountable,i don't see how anyone can find argument with that perfectly reasonable viewpoint,mind you this is UTC,so i could be proven completely wrong.

[thatdberight]

Incidentally, carnt isn’t a word.

People who live in grass (sic) houses and all that...

"having a meal day..."

[Rileybobs]

Do you not think it might be best if all of their focus was on getting on with the job, than having to waste time defending every decision?

There will be plenty of time for analysis later.

(stay safe everyone. Hope to see you back on the Turf in a few weeks!)

I’m sure it would be better for the politicians if they weren’t scrutinised, it would certainly make their lives easier. I don’t think it’s better for the rest of us though. Lessons learned now will help us to manage this crisis moving forwards.

[tiger76]

BREAKING
UK deaths pass 16,000
The number of covid-19 patients who died in UK hospitals has risen to 16,060 as of 17:00 BST on Saturday, the Department of Health and Social Care say.

That is an increase of 596 in 24 hours - down from the previous daily death toll of 888.

As of 09:00 BST on Sunday, 482,063 tests have been conducted, with 21,626 tests carried out on Saturday.

A total of 372,967 people have been tested of which 120,067 tested positive.

At least testing's increasing albeit gradually,the deaths have taken a sharp drop,but this could be explained by the normal weekend backlog in reporting,hopefully not,but that's been the pattern for several weeks sadly.

I noticed the discrepancy in the testing figures,i can only surmise some people have been tested more than once,i know that does happen because a family member has been tested at least twice well in hospital.

[thatdberight]

By the way, does anybody think lockdown is more than fraying at the edges? I'm out for a long walk (against guidelines - not against the law - but since I've passed two pedestrians in an hour...) and the volume of road traffic is a bit lighter but pretty much normal for a Sunday afternoon. For the last month, I could never have said that it was normal-ish for the day and time.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Yes its fraying.

The government were mocked for mentioning lockdown fatigue, but it's happening.

People are meeting up like normal, doing errands etc.

They're stretching reasons to leave the house to the extreme.

I haven't travelled to see family 20 miles away because it isn't worth the aggro of catching/spreading this illness.

I go to work, see my 4yr old and go food shopping, that's it.

[Bordeauxclaret]

By the way, does anybody think lockdown is more than fraying at the edges? I'm out for a long walk (against guidelines - not against the law - but since I've passed two pedestrians in an hour...) and the volume of road traffic is a bit lighter but pretty much normal for a Sunday afternoon. For the last month, I could never have said that it was normal-ish for the day and time.

I’ve probably seen more people out walking in the last few days but people seem to be keeping a distance from each other still.

[dsr]

Lockdown is bound to fray at the edges. The government tells us nothing about when it is going to end and rumours persist that if it might go on, at least for the elderly, for 18 months. People are bound to get frustrated.

After all, if lockdown persists for 18 months for the elderly, it will save no lives whatsover. Not in a way that is worth saving. I've been looking at numbers.

In 2018, there were 3.27m people 80 and over in this country. And 341,000 people aged 80 and over, died. That's 10.5%. So in an 18 months period, you would ordinarily expect 510,000 people aged over 80 to die.

Also, you would expect something like 150,000 old people to move into nursing or care homes.

Which means that if we have 18 months of lockdown, a total of 660,000 people are effectively imprisoned, without no family visits, no trips out, no cups of coffee in a coffee shop, no shopping, nothing, until they either die or lose all their independence anyway. Effectively, a life sentence.

And that doesn't take into account the mental and physical effects to the survivors. There will be many extra people who lose the ability to get out independently if they don't practice it. Either physically losing walking ability or mentally losing confidence. There will be many people who die prematurely because they don't or can't get treatment for heart disease or cancer. There will be many people who may already have some form of dementia who get worse very rapidly because they do not have the mental stimulus of normal human interaction. I don't know how many deaths lockdown will cause in this way, but it won't be negligible.

So what is the point of "saving" 500,000 (worst case estimate) lives if all they are being saved for is life imprisonment without parole and without family visits? Many old people would prefer to take their chance and see their grandchildren, even at the expense of risk of dying. After all, just being 80+ has a high risk of dying in itself. It isn't a new concept.

And one more thing - in Italy, the average age of death pre-coronavirus was 82; te average age of death of corona victims is 79. They are losing 3 years of life. So anyone whose life is saved by coronavirus, loses (in effect) the first 18 months of their last 3 years so they can live the last 18 months - and in most cases, the early years are better years than the later ones. And anyoone who wouldn't have died anyway has lost those 18 months as well.

We need to start lifting the lockdown. The reason for it, in any case, was to spare the NHS from overwork - that seems to have been working. So we need to let older people start seeing their families, their children and grandchildren, and allowing the children and grandchildren to travel to visit them if need be. Otherwise it all becomes pointless.

[jrgbfc]

The government can advise over 70s to lockdown for longer, doesn't mean they need to stick to it, it's impossible to police. There's plenty of 70 year olds who are a lot fitter than overweight, couch potato 35 year olds.

[tiger76]

Lockdown is bound to fray at the edges. The government tells us nothing about when it is going to end and rumours persist that if it might go on, at least for the elderly, for 18 months. People are bound to get frustrated.

After all, if lockdown persists for 18 months for the elderly, it will save no lives whatsover. Not in a way that is worth saving. I've been looking at numbers.

In 2018, there were 3.27m people 80 and over in this country. And 341,000 people aged 80 and over, died. That's 10.5%. So in an 18 months period, you would ordinarily expect 510,000 people aged over 80 to die.

Also, you would expect something like 150,000 old people to move into nursing or care homes.

Which means that if we have 18 months of lockdown, a total of 660,000 people are effectively imprisoned, without no family visits, no trips out, no cups of coffee in a coffee shop, no shopping, nothing, until they either die or lose all their independence anyway. Effectively, a life sentence.

And that doesn't take into account the mental and physical effects to the survivors. There will be many extra people who lose the ability to get out independently if they don't practice it. Either physically losing walking ability or mentally losing confidence. There will be many people who die prematurely because they don't or can't get treatment for heart disease or cancer. There will be many people who may already have some form of dementia who get worse very rapidly because they do not have the mental stimulus of normal human interaction. I don't know how many deaths lockdown will cause in this way, but it won't be negligible.

So what is the point of "saving" 500,000 (worst case estimate) lives if all they are being saved for is life imprisonment without parole and without family visits? Many old people would prefer to take their chance and see their grandchildren, even at the expense of risk of dying. After all, just being 80+ has a high risk of dying in itself. It isn't a new concept.

And one more thing - in Italy, the average age of death pre-coronavirus was 82; te average age of death of corona victims is 79. They are losing 3 years of life. So anyone whose life is saved by coronavirus, loses (in effect) the first 18 months of their last 3 years so they can live the last 18 months - and in most cases, the early years are better years than the later ones. And anyoone who wouldn't have died anyway has lost those 18 months as well.

We need to start lifting the lockdown. The reason for it, in any case, was to spare the NHS from overwork - that seems to have been working. So we need to let older people start seeing their families, their children and grandchildren, and allowing the children and grandchildren to travel to visit them if need be. Otherwise it all becomes pointless.

Excellent post,mental health is vital in all this,and once we're past the peak,which if it hasn't happened must be nearing,then serious considerations need to given to how we as a society are going to go forwards,this virus will still be prevalent for at least another year without a vaccine available to the general public,so somehow we'll have to find a way to live with it,but not allow it to become all consuming,social distancing will still play a part,but this lockdown in it's present form can't go on much more than another month at the most.

[dsr]

The government can advise over 70s to lockdown for longer, doesn't mean they need to stick to it, it's impossible to police. There's plenty of 70 year olds who are a lot fitter than overweight, couch potato 35 year olds.

Yes, of course. And over 70s and anyone else would be able to choose to stay in lockdown if they want.

[KateR]

I think looking at it there have been decisions made wrongly or rightly by many different countries going in but one of the UK's early/statements was around heard immunity, which is still very relevant until the vaccine is available for the masses, the sooner a country has heard immunity the better, but it needs to control the borders. The decision was based on achieving it quickly but obviously people who would be determined very ill needed ICU and this became the issue quickly in terms of there wouldn't be enough if done quickly but at least you get it over and the population/economy can get back to normal quickly with the least affect. Decisions have been made that going to heard immunity fast would have the consequence of swamping NHS & ICU with dead everywhere as it was found the spread was much quicker than originally thought. Hence the move to more beds/hospitals relatively quickly, move to get more ventilators and PEP, never going to be fast enough for anyone especially with the world scrambling for the same things.

Now the focus is shifting to how long, when will be the best time, people getting anxious to get out, back to normal, gone are any thoughts of it's just 2 or 3 weeks, some still hoping for June/July and a few pushing for May, people see rates falling so surely we can get out and out, yet now we are not only talking about the second waves but seeing modelling with up to 8 waves. People are thinking hypothesizing about I wish I could get it and be done, I'm young fit, healthy and willing to take my chances, all well and good but doesn't mean the economy will bounce back or the pub and football games will be open.

The biggest question is which comes first, heard immunity or the vaccine in order to start with some semblance of normality:

[Grumps]

Iam not in any risk group (yet) and have abided by the rules, even having online shopping for the first time. We haven't seen grandchildren since before the lockdown. Now I can do another 3 weeks, because its needed, but if in three weeks time it gets extended again, with no details on exit, and the deaths have come down, and hospital admissions have come down, I might just be tempted to go and see my six month old grandchild..... And many others will be feeling the same way.
It all needs to be managed very carefully, or people will start taking the freeing of lockdown into their own hands.

[Devils_Advocate]

Excellent post,mental health is vital in all this,and once we're past the peak,which if it hasn't happened must be nearing,then serious considerations need to given to how we as a society are going to go forwards,this virus will still be prevalent for at least another year without a vaccine available to the general public,so somehow we'll have to find a way to live with it,but not allow it to become all consuming,social distancing will still play a part,but this lockdown in it's present form can't go on much more than another month at the most.

Key for me around this area is testing. If we can increase capacity and reliability for large scale testing that will help us control the release from lockdown so we dont find a 2nd wave of the outbreak thrust upon us with little insight to where the hot spots are

[Spijed]

Lockdown is bound to fray at the edges. The government tells us nothing about when it is going to end and rumours persist that if it might go on, at least for the elderly, for 18 months. People are bound to get frustrated.

After all, if lockdown persists for 18 months for the elderly, it will save no lives whatsover. Not in a way that is worth saving. I've been looking at numbers.

In 2018, there were 3.27m people 80 and over in this country. And 341,000 people aged 80 and over, died. That's 10.5%. So in an 18 months period, you would ordinarily expect 510,000 people aged over 80 to die.

Also, you would expect something like 150,000 old people to move into nursing or care homes.

Which means that if we have 18 months of lockdown, a total of 660,000 people are effectively imprisoned, without no family visits, no trips out, no cups of coffee in a coffee shop, no shopping, nothing, until they either die or lose all their independence anyway. Effectively, a life sentence.

And that doesn't take into account the mental and physical effects to the survivors. There will be many extra people who lose the ability to get out independently if they don't practice it. Either physically losing walking ability or mentally losing confidence. There will be many people who die prematurely because they don't or can't get treatment for heart disease or cancer. There will be many people who may already have some form of dementia who get worse very rapidly because they do not have the mental stimulus of normal human interaction. I don't know how many deaths lockdown will cause in this way, but it won't be negligible.

So what is the point of "saving" 500,000 (worst case estimate) lives if all they are being saved for is life imprisonment without parole and without family visits? Many old people would prefer to take their chance and see their grandchildren, even at the expense of risk of dying. After all, just being 80+ has a high risk of dying in itself. It isn't a new concept.

And one more thing - in Italy, the average age of death pre-coronavirus was 82; te average age of death of corona victims is 79. They are losing 3 years of life. So anyone whose life is saved by coronavirus, loses (in effect) the first 18 months of their last 3 years so they can live the last 18 months - and in most cases, the early years are better years than the later ones. And anyoone who wouldn't have died anyway has lost those 18 months as well.

We need to start lifting the lockdown. The reason for it, in any case, was to spare the NHS from overwork - that seems to have been working. So we need to let older people start seeing their families, their children and grandchildren, and allowing the children and grandchildren to travel to visit them if need be. Otherwise it all becomes pointless.

If the R0 number is less than one I presume it's safer to go out than it was a month ago.

[Taffy on the wing]

Do you not think it might be best if all of their focus was on getting on with the job, than having to waste time defending every decision?

There will be plenty of time for analysis later.

(stay safe everyone. Hope to see you back on the Turf in a few weeks!)

That's just it .........They haven't been getting on with the job!...... Anything but in fact.

[KateR]

Key for me around this area is testing. If we can increase capacity and reliability for large scale testing that will help us control the release from lockdown so we dont find a 2nd wave of the outbreak thrust upon us with little insight to where the hot spots are

I have never seen testing in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is, and I would 100% agree if it was early days and investigation work was done to identify potential infected/carries and keep doing it but UK has never really done that. Some reports I am reading are stating a credible scenario is that the figures bandied around are but 5% of people who have actually had/got C-19. Testing is IMO only to help know where your population is in terms of how many have had it, can we say at some point, ok, this percentage have had it so we might as well relax the lockdown and go to phase two of the opening the country back up in small steps to see where we are. Yet the problem is if you can't test in the 100K+ you'll never really know and have to "guess".

Does testing help to stop the virus, what other benefits do you see to the testing that I am missing other than my own thoughts above?

[Taffy on the wing]

I think looking at it there have been decisions made wrongly or rightly by many different countries going in but one of the UK's early/statements was around heard immunity, which is still very relevant until the vaccine is available for the masses, the sooner a country has heard immunity the better, but it needs to control the borders. The decision was based on achieving it quickly but obviously people who would be determined very ill needed ICU and this became the issue quickly in terms of there wouldn't be enough if done quickly but at least you get it over and the population/economy can get back to normal quickly with the least affect. Decisions have been made that going to heard immunity fast would have the consequence of swamping NHS & ICU with dead everywhere as it was found the spread was much quicker than originally thought. Hence the move to more beds/hospitals relatively quickly, move to get more ventilators and PEP, never going to be fast enough for anyone especially with the world scrambling for the same things.

Now the focus is shifting to how long, when will be the best time, people getting anxious to get out, back to normal, gone are any thoughts of it's just 2 or 3 weeks, some still hoping for June/July and a few pushing for May, people see rates falling so surely we can get out and out, yet now we are not only talking about the second waves but seeing modelling with up to 8 waves. People are thinking hypothesizing about I wish I could get it and be done, I'm young fit, healthy and willing to take my chances, all well and good but doesn't mean the economy will bounce back or the pub and football games will be open.

The biggest question is which comes first, heard immunity or the vaccine in order to start with some semblance of normality:

Try and get some sleep!......You're delirious.

[KateR]

Try and get some sleep!......You're delirious.

I see you continue to bring value to every thread where ever you spread your wings.

You must be so much fun to be with, the hatred can be seen spewing out of you everywhere, I just feel sorry for you, but much more so for those around you.

You can stalk and flirt with me as much as you like sweetie but you know deep down we are never going to be together, Rex is more your type than me but I'll keep looking out for these wonderful pearls you keep trotting out as you become the laughing stock of this message board with zero credibility, but I'll always be there for you.

[Devils_Advocate]

I have never seen testing in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is, and I would 100% agree if it was early days and investigation work was done to identify potential infected/carries and keep doing it but UK has never really done that. Some reports I am reading are stating a credible scenario is that the figures bandied around are but 5% of people who have actually had/got C-19. Testing is IMO only to help know where your population is in terms of how many have had it, can we say at some point, ok, this percentage have had it so we might as well relax the lockdown and go to phase two of the opening the country back up in small steps to see where we are. Yet the problem is if you can't test in the 100K+ you'll never really know and have to "guess".

Does testing help to stop the virus, what other benefits do you see to the testing that I am missing other than my own thoughts above?

It can help slowdown and reduce the spread of the virus. When we start to return to normal the virus will start to spread again to some degree

With the ability to test everyone we will have the ability to track and trace where the high levels of transmission is and look at more localised actions to stop super spreaders

Although not directly comparable to our situation the contrast to what is happening in Japan compared to S Korea is a good case study for the importance of testing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52305055

[Spijed]

I have never seen testing in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is, and I would 100% agree if it was early days and investigation work was done to identify potential infected/carries and keep doing it but UK has never really done that. Some reports I am reading are stating a credible scenario is that the figures bandied around are but 5% of people who have actually had/got C-19. Testing is IMO only to help know where your population is in terms of how many have had it, can we say at some point, ok, this percentage have had it so we might as well relax the lockdown and go to phase two of the opening the country back up in small steps to see where we are. Yet the problem is if you can't test in the 100K+ you'll never really know and have to "guess".

Does testing help to stop the virus, what other benefits do you see to the testing that I am missing other than my own thoughts above?

Why do you think Germany is doing far better than any other country in Europe?

[FactualFrank]

Regarding traffic from a few threads further up, Easter weekend where I live wasn't much quieter than any standard weekend.

At one point there was something about around 10% of people who didn't give a ****, but now it feels that's now more like 25%. Massive fines need to be given out. Like I've said before, if you fine someone a grand, it'll be shared to their friends and family like lightening and people will be too afraid to not give a ****. They'll have to.

[KateR]

DA,
I gave you the picture further up as to how the world is looked at and with regard to testing

"It is relatively easy to tackle clusters, to contact trace and isolate," says Professor Kenji Shibuya of King's College London". UK and many places are not contact tracing and isolating so just my thoughts but not relevant, I am going to make a SWAG and say virtually every country will have some form of second wave and many will experience more.

In the end I do not see testing reducing the spread, isolating reduces it so we can manage health and ICU through periods of isolation through some form of lockdown. I don't see the UK or US for example, plus many European countries moving to contact tracing and investigation to find others and isolate.

Many Far East/SE Asian countries went through SAR's and due to that they had a real epidemic to them and they acted accordingly, planned well for what has happened and got to grips far faster than western world, so always find it a little difficult to relate when doing comparisons to them but agree a comparison between Japan & S Korea is relevant.

We are progressing through the heard immunity slowly in order to prevent swamping NHS/ICU at this time, testing will be one input to the strategy decided for the next stage of release to the present lockdown, those numbers are still to high to allow a relaxation, as we get in to May they will be reviewed against other criteria, peoples mental state, economic reasoning etc.

Just my thoughts

[dsr]

Regarding traffic from a few threads further up, Easter weekend where I live wasn't much quieter than any standard weekend.

At one point there was something about around 10% of people who didn't give a ****, but now it feels that's now more like 25%. Massive fines need to be given out. Like I've said before, if you fine someone a grand, it'll be shared to their friends and family like lightening and people will be too afraid to not give a ****. They'll have to.

If you try and police this lockdown purely by coercion and police powers, then you will lose public support. Without public support, there is no chance of getting it under control unless the police (and presumably army) are all-powerful. Not a good thing.

[Spijed]

In the end I do not see testing reducing the spread, isolating reduces it so we can manage health and ICU through periods of isolation through some form of lockdown. I don't see the UK or US for example, plus many European countries moving to contact tracing and investigation to find others and isolate.

Well it's obviously working in Germany. They have tested huge numbers and far fewer deaths than us.

[Devils_Advocate]

Fair enough its just something we will have to disagree on. Without testing we are much more likely IMO to take more precaution and jump back into lockdown/isolation where it maybe isn't necessary.

With testing we can get more info about the spread of the virus and who has already had it and that can help inform decisions around future social distancing measures.

[Taffy on the wing]

Well it's obviously working in Germany. They have tested huge numbers and far fewer deaths than us.

Don't bother her/they with 'facts'.
New Zealand also did an excellent job. Test, Trace & Quarantine!

[tiger76]

Key for me around this area is testing. If we can increase capacity and reliability for large scale testing that will help us control the release from lockdown so we dont find a 2nd wave of the outbreak thrust upon us with little insight to where the hot spots are

I don't know what the UK wide strategy will be but the Scottish approach seems to be hinting towards testing playing a major role going forwards.

Jeane Freeman disagrees with The Times' premise that "every single strategy hasn't worked" so far in the government's attempts to tackle the coronavirus crisis.

The health secretary insists that everything the Scottish population has done in terms of following lockdown measures and social distancing guidelines has been effective in suppressing the presence of the virus.

"It is a fragile place we are right now, which is why we are continuing that lockdown, but to dismiss those efforts and those attempts is, I think, unfair and wrong," Ms Freeman says.

Asked whether a 'test, trace and isolate' policy will help in returning society to some form of normality, she adds that it is "one of the important tools we will use as we plot our way through this next stage."

[thatdberight]

Regarding traffic from a few threads further up, Easter weekend where I live wasn't much quieter than any standard weekend.

At one point there was something about around 10% of people who didn't give a ****, but now it feels that's now more like 25%. Massive fines need to be given out. Like I've said before, if you fine someone a grand, it'll be shared to their friends and family like lightening and people will be too afraid to not give a ****. They'll have to.

Of course with this still being a democracy, as I recall, if it gets above 50% then it's what the country wants.

[CombatClaret]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... scientists

We're not going to reach 100k tests by the end of April, yesterday 21k were carried out.
The government again making up numbers simply for headlines and press conferences, promising more than they can possibly deliver.

“We are going up from 5,000 to 10,000 tests per day, to 25,000, hopefully very soon up to 250,000 per day - Boris Johnson March 25th

[HunterST_BFC]

These ministers at daily briefings are starting to look very like task managers on the Apprentice.

[HunterST_BFC]

edit duplicate

[CombatClaret]

I have never seen testing in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is...

Lucky for you the UK government is utterly failing at it, how convenient.

On that subject I have never seen PPE in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is.

[KateR]

Well it's obviously working in Germany. They have tested huge numbers and far fewer deaths than us.

I appreciate your thoughts and am not saying don't test, but there are many other factors it's not just testing, that's all I'm saying, for example:

[KateR]

Lucky for you the UK government is utterly failing at it, how convenient.

On that subject I have never seen PPE in and of itself as a key, yes I accept the experts keep saying it is.

it's a good try but clearly PPE saves life and is critical so it is key, but your attempt to be sarcastic and dismissive when trying to have a debate is noted.

Maybe you could try to help this stupid person understand why testing is critical and how it in and of itself saves lives, no need to bother with the PPE bit I am fairly certain I understand that bit since I have had to wear it for years in the past.