Covid-19

[paulatky]

Bump

[Grumps]

Bump

Why?

[dsr]

Of all the threads that don't need a bump ...

[tiger76]

At the moment where I am working things have gone a bit quiet. In my job I review patients who are sick on the ward, try to fix them with the home teams, and if need be take them to ICU and get them sorted a bit there.

Currently covid referrals are massively down which is good. But also other medical and surgical referrals are down. Post op sepsis issues because elective surgery is on hold. Even things like pancreatitis referrals seems to be down, perhaps because people are ignoring that dull ache they have, which isn’t a good idea as ignoring a medical problem usually creates a bigger problem.

We have beds. Loads. Both on the wards and critical care. It’s strange. A lot are still scuppering to covid but they are generally very old with multiple pre-existing issues so never get referred to me for critical care.

I suspect the large conference centre hospitals may not be used but if they are it will be the second spike. Also hospitals will have to restart the elective stuff. Ignoring that will create long term issues. I suspect I will be very busy soon with patient who have ignored non-covid issues as they did not want to go to hospital/GP


It’s weird I’m getting clapped for doing less work than normal

Glad your keeping well Inchy,and the reason your quiet is people aren't attending hospital when they need to,hence this advice from various sources,that beds and care is available if you require it,the last thing we need is a huge backlog once the CV peak starts easing,already many cancer patients have had their treatment halted,which in many cases can be the difference between life and death.

People should seek medical care when they need it and not be put off by the coronavirus epidemic, say doctors, charities and the health service.

Anyone who delays seeking treatment is putting their long-term health at risk, as well as their life, they warn.

Half the usual number of people are going to A&E and treatment for heart attacks and strokes is down.

Seeking medical help is one of the four reasons people can safely leave home, government guidance says.

NHS England's medical director Stephen Powis said he was concerned by the reduced numbers.

"If you do have symptoms of stroke, chest pain and think it might be a heart attack, a sick child who is deteriorating, if you are a pregnant woman and the baby is not moving as much as it used to - it is important you don't delay," he said.

He suggested the falling numbers were due to people worrying about bothering the NHS and fears of contracting coronavirus in a medical environment.

But he said he wanted to reassure people that A&E departments and GPs' surgeries had made changes to keep staff and patients safe, for example GPs talking through a patient's symptoms on the phone before asking them to go into a surgery.

A public information campaign persuading people to use the health service will feature NHS staff and start next week.

It comes as the UK's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty warns of the impact of deaths from causes other than Covid-19 during the lockdown.

The NHS is predicting that visits to A&E in England this April will be just half that of the same month last year, down to just over a million visits in the month.

Despite NHS efforts to free up thousands of beds across the country and build new Nightingale hospitals over the last few weeks, there is concern that people are not using the NHS either because they don't want to be a burden or because they are worried about catching the virus.

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the government needed to move to testing and tracing those who had come into contact with the virus as soon as possible so that people's lives could return to normal.

"Either we are in lockdown for that 18 months which is clearly unsustainable for the economy and it means other health issues build up," he told BBC's Breakfast.

"People are not going to hospital, peoples' treatment is cancelled, people with cancer are not getting the treatment they need."

How to get help
Contact your GP practice, use NHS 111 online or call 111 if you need medical help
Call 999 in emergencies
Go to hospital if you are told you should
Figures suggest half the number of people are going to Accident and Emergency departments in hospitals in England this month, compared with April 2019.

And experts say they are concerned people are not getting potentially life-saving treatment for heart attacks and strokes, with a 50% fall in the number of people seeking medical help for heart symptoms.

Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, associate medical director at the British Heart Foundation, said it was "vitally important" that the many thousands of people in the UK with existing heart conditions accessed care "immediately" if their condition worsened.

'Children do get sick'
There are also concerns that children may be missing out on medical care during the pandemic.

"Children are unlikely to be unwell with Covid, but they do get sick and when this happens we want to see them," said Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health.

There is also a warning that people should not dismiss strokes as "just a funny turn".

Juliet Bouverie, from the Stroke Association, said a stroke was a medical emergency.

"The quicker you're diagnosed and treated for a stroke, the better your chances of making a good recovery," she said.

If you suspect that you, or someone else could be having a stroke, call 999.

Prof Powis said that now the NHS was seeing fewer patients with coronavirus, it was time to start building up its services again.

"The NHS has done a magnificent job responding to coronavirus, we have not been overwhelmed in the way seen in other countries, now it is important to start stepping up again to ensure we are not delaying other procedures," he said.

It's vital this message gets through to the public,and we don't turn the NHS into a covid only resource.

[tiger76]

This is a grim milestone.

BREAKING
Another 813 UK hospital deaths put total over 20,000
The UK's Department of Health and Social Care has recorded a further 813 deaths in hospital.

It brings the total number of hospital deaths to 20,319 - making the UK the fifth country to pass 20,000 deaths, along with Italy, Spain, France and the USA.

Worryingly high figures for a weekend to compound this.

[Lowbankclaret]

Tiger76,
The data was pointing to that figure being hit over a week ago, it’s very sad.

As we already know total actual deaths lags behind by about 20 days, I think I read the percentage is around 20% higher once all deaths are recorded.

The problem the government has got is that the plateau is continuing and not yet dropping. Now the next two days are going to be lower. We need to wait for weds to fri next week to see if we have any sign of a downward trend.
If we don’t see it, the problem the gov has I’d people are seeing more and more going out. Shops opening up like B and Q. .

If the numbers start to go up again it’s going to be really hard to tighten lockdown.

As a few on here have said , open up again suffer the death toll.

I missed the briefing today, but the last few days showed lowering numbers of hospital admissions which was a good sign.

Let’s hope it transfers into lower deaths.

[Spijed]

Tiger76,
The data was pointing to that figure being hit over a week ago, it’s very sad.

As we already know total actual deaths lags behind by about 20 days, I think I read the percentage is around 20% higher once all deaths are recorded.

The problem the government has got is that the plateau is continuing and not yet dropping. Now the next two days are going to be lower. We need to wait for weds to fri next week to see if we have any sign of a downward trend.
If we don’t see it, the problem the gov has I’d people are seeing more and more going out. Shops opening up like B and Q. .

If the numbers start to go up again it’s going to be really hard to tighten lockdown.

As a few on here have said , open up again suffer the death toll.

I missed the briefing today, but the last few days showed lowering numbers of hospital admissions which was a good sign.

Let’s hope it transfers into lower deaths.

The slightly confusing thing with the total is that many are not from today or yesterday, but from the last few weeks.

[ksrclaret]

The slightly confusing thing with the total is that many are not from today or yesterday, but from the last few weeks.

That's been the case for a while now. Newsnight last week showed that when the deaths are plotted by date of death, rather than date of reporting of death, it shows the peak was somewhere around 8th April.

[Lowbankclaret]

The slightly confusing thing with the total is that many are not from today or yesterday, but from the last few weeks.

I agree, but that’s the way we are going to collect it, so as long as we all understand it now. At least we are not arguing about it any more. Graph Is hard to see but at least both figures are now on there.

7E1B7183-FEBF-44F9-B5FC-4E05B5DCE440.png (1.5 MiB) Viewed 3402 times

[TVC15]

This is a grim milestone.

BREAKING
Another 813 UK hospital deaths put total over 20,000
The UK's Department of Health and Social Care has recorded a further 813 deaths in hospital.

It brings the total number of hospital deaths to 20,319 - making the UK the fifth country to pass 20,000 deaths, along with Italy, Spain, France and the USA.

Worryingly high figures for a weekend to compound this.

I agree it is a grim statistic but I thought the daily figures were the deaths as at 5pm the previous day ?
Looking back the Saturday figures always seem pretty high relative to the rest of the week and we already know that not all the data sources are daily so the figures do jump about a bit.
If you look at the average over a few days it’s definitely moving in the right direction - though I accept it’s still a frightening and pretty horrific number.

If we are a couple of weeks behind Italy then by the end of first week in May we should be around the 450 a day mark that they are at now.

[tiger76]

I agree it is a grim statistic but I thought the daily figures were the deaths as at 5pm the previous day ?
Looking back the Saturday figures always seem pretty high relative to the rest of the week and we already know that not all the data sources are daily so the figures do jump about a bit.
If you look at the average over a few days it’s definitely moving in the right direction - though I accept it’s still a frightening and pretty horrific number.

If we are a couple of weeks behind Italy then by the end of first week in May we should be around the 450 a day mark that they are at now.

TBF to the politicians and experts,they have said for several weeks,that the fall in deaths would take a lot longer to show up in the figures,however they're collated,so it will be 2-3 weeks before there's a noticeable change,the general downward trend in new infections is welcome,and eventually this will feed through,but it'll be a tough call as to whether this will be enough to ease lockdown restrictions yet.

[tiger76]

Another unwanted milestone

BREAKING
Global death toll passes 200,000
The global coronavirus death tally has passed 200,000 people, according to the global tracker run by Johns Hopkins University, after France recorded 369 further fatalities.

A total of 22,614 people have now died in France.

[TheFamilyCat]

Can't see that this has been discussed (apologies if I missed it) but it seems like pretty big news to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

The theory that once a person would be immune to covid once they'd had it seemed to be a big factor in moving forward.

[Lowbankclaret]

I agree it is a grim statistic but I thought the daily figures were the deaths as at 5pm the previous day ?
Looking back the Saturday figures always seem pretty high relative to the rest of the week and we already know that not all the data sources are daily so the figures do jump about a bit.
If you look at the average over a few days it’s definitely moving in the right direction - though I accept it’s still a frightening and pretty horrific number.

If we are a couple of weeks behind Italy then by the end of first week in May we should be around the 450 a day mark that they are at now.

It’s deaths registered of peopl who were in hospital, that can take 2 to several days apparently .

[ksrclaret]

Can't see that this has been discussed (apologies if I missed it) but it seems like pretty big news to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

The theory that once a person would be immune to covid once they'd had it seemed to be a big factor in moving forward.

Quite worrying, although it's worth remembering that no evidence of immunity is not the same as evidence of no immunity.

[Spijed]

Can't see that this has been discussed (apologies if I missed it) but it seems like pretty big news to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

The theory that once a person would be immune to covid once they'd had it seemed to be a big factor in moving forward.

From what's been said, it's more to do with the length of immunity. As one scientist put it, if you get better your body must have built up some resistance, otherwise you'd never recover.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

At least levels of shoplifting are down.

[Lowbankclaret]

The issue could be the mutations of the virus, possibly.

Like seasonal flu has several, perhaps Covid has to.

[RingoMcCartney]

At least levels of shoplifting are down.

Pickpocketing in a lift.

Wrong. On so many levels.

[clarethomer]

Nearly 21k in deaths... that figure feels like a turf moor crowd

[mdd2]

The issue could be the mutations of the virus, possibly.

Like seasonal flu has several, perhaps Covid has to.

Chinese report at least 30 mutations some of which may affect pathogenicity although the most deadly should not survive.

[Lowbankclaret]

Chinese report at least 30 mutations some of which may affect pathogenicity although the most deadly should not survive.

I hadn’t read that, we might just have to get used to a completely new normal life.

[FactualFrank]

Chinese report at least 30 mutations some of which may affect pathogenicity although the most deadly should not survive.

This could explain why people have different strains of the virus, with some people not even knowing they have it, whilst others end up in intensive care.

[mdd2]

And there were those cases in Iceland where by looking at the strain of virus and travel showed they had been infected at a game (think it was WBA) in the midlands.
Always has and always will be 1) size of infection, 2) pathogenicity of the organism 3) susceptibility of the host-look how the Europeans "slaughtered" indigenous populations by taking endemic diseases in Europeans to previously unexposed communities like smallpox, typhus,flu, chicken pox and measles amongst others. Of course Native Indians in the Americas they gave us potatoes in return; oh and syphilis and tobacco

[dsr]

This could explain why people have different strains of the virus, with some people not even knowing they have it, whilst others end up in intensive care.

Doesn't really need any explanation. All viruses affect different people in different ways. Some people get a dose of flu really badly, some get a mild does - and next year it could be the other way round.

[cblantfanclub]

We already had syphilis - see how fake news spreads

[J50]

At the moment where I am working things have gone a bit quiet. In my job I review patients who are sick on the ward, try to fix them with the home teams, and if need be take them to ICU and get them sorted a bit there.

Currently covid referrals are massively down which is good. But also other medical and surgical referrals are down. Post op sepsis issues because elective surgery is on hold. Even things like pancreatitis referrals seems to be down, perhaps because people are ignoring that dull ache they have, which isn’t a good idea as ignoring a medical problem usually creates a bigger problem.

We have beds. Loads. Both on the wards and critical care. It’s strange. A lot are still scuppering to covid but they are generally very old with multiple pre-existing issues so never get referred to me for critical care.

I suspect the large conference centre hospitals may not be used but if they are it will be the second spike. Also hospitals will have to restart the elective stuff. Ignoring that will create long term issues. I suspect I will be very busy soon with patient who have ignored non-covid issues as they did not want to go to hospital/GP


It’s weird I’m getting clapped for doing less work than normal

There's only about 50 patients in the Nightingale in London. As you say these will be used for the second spike...

[Devils_Advocate]

There's only about 50 patients in the Nightingale in London. As you say these will be used for the second spike...

There has been a challenge around this that the Hospital didnt have the staff and some of the equipment so to send the patients the hospital was designed to initially take the normal hospitals had to send their own staff and equipment too. This made it counter productive and the London hospitals were better to keep the patients and be overrun rather than lose doctors and nurses

Hopefully the govt now has some time to resolve these issues so we can get real value from the London Nightingale hospital if we are hit by a 2nd wave

[keith1879]

I agree it is a grim statistic but I thought the daily figures were the deaths as at 5pm the previous day ?
Looking back the Saturday figures always seem pretty high relative to the rest of the week and we already know that not all the data sources are daily so the figures do jump about a bit.
If you look at the average over a few days it’s definitely moving in the right direction - though I accept it’s still a frightening and pretty horrific number.

If we are a couple of weeks behind Italy then by the end of first week in May we should be around the 450 a day mark that they are at now.

On a 7 day moving average we peaked at 850 deaths on the 13th. currently we are at 690 and falling fairly steadily.

[claretandy]

Can't see that this has been discussed (apologies if I missed it) but it seems like pretty big news to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

The theory that once a person would be immune to covid once they'd had it seemed to be a big factor in moving forward.

It seems that the WHO have now rowed back on this.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

[Spijed]

It seems that the WHO have now rowed back on this.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

You are bound to build up some immunity otherwise you'd never recover.

The question is for how long. That seems to be the great unknown at this moment.

[RingoMcCartney]

It seems that the WHO have now rowed back on this.

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

Rowing back?

The W.H.O., in all this, have been just about as useful as a wicker canoe.

[Jakubclaret]

On a 7 day moving average we peaked at 850 deaths on the 13th. currently we are at 690 and falling fairly steadily.

The numbers were always going to drop despite the social distancing measures ect, it was just a question of when, there's only a certain amount of high risk poorly people out there & once there die it can't be regenerated again, it's just nature's way of saying look there's too many of you out there some of you have to go.

[mdd2]

We already had syphilis - see how fake news spreads

Speak for yourself.
Depends who you believe of the two theories pre or post-columbian.

[TVC15]

The numbers were always going to drop despite the social distancing measures ect, it was just a question of when, there's only a certain amount of high risk poorly people out there & once there die it can't be regenerated again, it's just nature's way of saying look there's too many of you out there some of you have to go.

Ignoring your ridiculous last sentence what makes you think that the numbers were “always going to drop despite social distancing” ?
I get that by definition when everybody is dead they will - but it’s because of social distancing they have come down so quickly.
Over 85s have been the fastest growing demographic for years - that’s nature’s way of saying people are living longer.

[Jakubclaret]

Ignoring your ridiculous last sentence what makes you think that the numbers were “always going to drop despite social distancing” ?
I get that by definition when everybody is dead they will - but it’s because of social distancing they have come down so quickly.
Over 85s have been the fastest growing demographic for years - that’s nature’s way of saying people are living longer.

Yes that might be true, the older you become the more likely you are suspectible to illnesses, the number were always going to drop as it's the older generation mostly dying & unless the people die & miraculously come back from the dead the numbers were always going to drop, even with no social distancing measures in time there would done anyway but with more overall casualties/fatalities. I'm not arguing about it I think it's good less people are dying & it means we can all get back to living again normally when the lockdown is completely lifted, we just need to hope for positivity on the treatment/vaccine front then major strides of progress can be achieved.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes that might be true, the older you become the more likely you are suspectible to illnesses, the number were always going to drop as it's the older generation mostly dying & unless the people die & miraculously come back from the dead the numbers were always going to drop, even with no social distancing measures in time there would done anyway but with more overall casualties/fatalities. I'm not arguing about it I think it's good less people are dying & it means we can all get back to living again normally when the lockdown is completely lifted, we just need to hope for positivity on the treatment/vaccine front then major strides of progress can be achieved.

You have an interesting take on things.
The modelling said if we did nothing there would be between 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, with social distancing the numbers were hoping to be kept below, 20,000. That number has been shown to be well below the number of deaths that are going to occur even with lockdown.
I hate to burst your bubble, but lifting lockdown now would accelerate the numbers to the modelling predictions.

It’s going to be a very slow release of lockdown measures, at best..

What I agree with is the best way out of this is a treatment or a vaccine.

[tiger76]

It depends what Jakub imagines as normal,going back to regular activities as they where before lockdown,won't happen for 6 months minimum,and even then they'll be some form of social distancing,whether obliged by the authorities,or purely because it's ingrained in the public's psyche by then.



Will be the mantra for the foreseeable future,certainly until a suitable vaccine is found.

[Jakubclaret]

You have an interesting take on things.
The modelling said if we did nothing there would be between 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, with social distancing the numbers were hoping to be kept below, 20,000. That number has been shown to be well below the number of deaths that are going to occur even with lockdown.
I hate to burst your bubble, but lifting lockdown now would accelerate the numbers to the modelling predictions.

It’s going to be a very slow release of lockdown measures, at best..

What I agree with is the best way out of this is a treatment or a vaccine.

I agree 100%, it’d be crazy to lift the lockdown completely now, I don’t think until we’ve got an effective vaccine & treatment we should even be considering it. It’s the correct course of action to review on a weekly basis & act accordingly, I’ve said all along this is here to stay for the duration & we’ll have to live with it, cultural & behavioural changes will make the virus manageable, it is what it is.

[Lowbankclaret]

I was told on Friday , I am now furloughed until the end of May.

I am expecting to long after to be offered redundancy. Not that it’s a problem for me.
I just hope there is enough work left to keep the guys with young families in work.

Returning to normal in the short term is not happening.

[Jakubclaret]

I think more & more people are going back in staggered stages & communal areas such as the canteen etc will be closed off, you don’t mind having a rest period outside in summer in winter it will be different if you don’t have a car to shelter into. All you can do is try to avoid people & avoid touching your face before washing your hands, I don’t think it’s entirely safe to be going back into work but for some people it’ll boil down to no money & possible job losses & hardships if you refuse to.

[Bullabill]

The modelling said if we did nothing there would be between 250,000 to 500,000 deaths,

Oh yeah? What did they use for the modelling - plastiscene?

[Dazzler]

What this nation needs is some good old British Bulldog Spirit.
We need to stop pussy footing about and get our economy back on track.

Good on yers Swedes
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

[jackmiggins]

I’m increasingly concerned about the qualification of the ‘science’ that the government is being ‘guided’ by. Naively, I assumed we had suspended passenger flights or would, at least, isolate incomers!!
Are politicians simply cherry picking the advice they choose to use from a very limited & pressurised small group of ‘scientists’?

[jackmiggins]

Also - about time the truth on advice re face masks was addressed. I’ve no doubt that this has been driven by the ‘science’ of availability.

[Grumps]

Iam sure there's a thread somewhere which covers these issues, just search for Covid-19 and they'll show up.

[jackmiggins]

I’m aware of that - but I see this as a political point, rather than medical or humanitarian. Governmental approach is becoming more and more questionable. Wouldn’t be surprised if we are fed more ‘Trumpist’ like statements in the days ahead as our politicians try to relax lockdown.

[Paul Waine]

Also - about time the truth on advice re face masks was addressed. I’ve no doubt that this has been driven by the ‘science’ of availability.

Check out WHO advice on face masks, if you want something that is "independent" of UK. Check out the use of face masks in those countries that used face masks before Dec-2019. Check out how things have changed since Jan-2020.

Check out the correct/safe ways of using face masks and the incorrect/unsafe ways of using them. Ask yourself how you will get the training to know the differences - and whether you would stick with the correct/safe ways.

And, yes, think about the impact if everyone is scrambling for face masks and the doctors and nurses were busy at work when the scramble was going on. And, consider if there is a priority in who gets the available face masks.

[jackmiggins]

I’m aware of that. But I prefer true statements from politicians. The surprising thing for me is regarding unrestricted inward air travel!!!

[Grumps]

I’m aware of that. But I prefer true statements from politicians. The surprising thing for me is regarding unrestricted inward air travel!!!

As I've asked on another thread, what tests would you carry out on arriving Air passengers?