Covid-19

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Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 8:36 am

For fear of raising a contentious issue - I’ll post this. My only purpose is to see if anyone can shed any light on the validity of the claim, nothing else. Anyway, it’s doing the rounds on Twitter.

https://universalcreditsuffer.com/2020/ ... uncil-tax/

mdd2
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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sun May 31, 2020 8:42 am

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear!!

paulatky
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun May 31, 2020 8:45 am

Grumps wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 7:47 am
Thanks Zlatan
Like I said, I was the same as you, that it would be like a bad case of flu. If people were honest most thought that as well

I can relate to most of your post above, but iam lucky not having to shield, that must be hard.

If, and I know it's a big if..... We all, or at least the vast majority of us continue to social distance we might just get out of this quicker than we thought possible in april

Then we can get back to arguing about Jeff Hendrick or the price of a Mars bar.
Well ,I certainly never said it was no worse than flu.

Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 9:00 am


FactualFrank
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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Sun May 31, 2020 9:13 am

Regarding hindsight, I think we've seen in football that some on here are brilliant with regards to that. Saying Gibson was a waste of a transfer, because Mee and Tarks didn't get any lengthy injuries, was a belter I thought.
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Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Sun May 31, 2020 9:26 am

Grumps wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 6:29 am
I was bored this morning, so I read the start of this thread.
I got as far as the end of February
You were quite vocal throughout that time that it was no worse than flu, so when in February did it actually get serious?

Very few of the posters who are on here all the time now have yet to make an appearance by 28th Feb. Those that do, in the main, treat it as a joke.

Jackub, who started the thread obviously saw something, but was shouted down

Lowbankclaret was consistent with his message

Paulalty was predicting the end of the world, so he hasn't changed

But where were the rest of those who are now saying it was obvious from jan/Feb that it was a big problem,who was saying... all borders should be shut, everyone should stay indoors, the government should be doing more!!!

They weren't............ But with hindsight they do.

I don't have a problem looking back, and saying we could/should have done this better, or that quicker, but please let's not pretend we all had the answers back in Feb and it was just the government who didn't see it coming.

I've changed my view a few times, at first I was with Zlatan and it would be no worse than flu, and said that. When the deaths were touching a thousand a day I thought it was going to get worse. Now, if people keep to the social distancing it won't be as bad as I thought it would get then.

Iam off for my coffee now.
Nice one, Grumps, taking a look back at the start of this thread. Did I post anything back then? I can't remember. I may have been too busy getting fit for my skiing holiday in March. ;)

Have a great day.

Stay safe. Stay Alert.
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GodIsADeeJay81
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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun May 31, 2020 9:54 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:27 am
So just on the side of a bus then?
Pretty sure the NHS money comment has been broken down and explained several times now, including on here.

paulatky
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun May 31, 2020 10:03 am

Gordaleman wrote: ↑
You do talk some rubbish. How can something that hasn't killed a single person in the UK as yet, be worse than something that we have a vaccine for but still kills 10,000 every year?

Oh, and what evidence do you have that Covid-19 has already mutated? None I suspect.

Whatever happened to Gordaleman.
Havent seen any posts from him lately. Hope he is ok

GodIsADeeJay81
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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun May 31, 2020 10:45 am

paulatky wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 10:03 am
Gordaleman wrote: ↑
You do talk some rubbish. How can something that hasn't killed a single person in the UK as yet, be worse than something that we have a vaccine for but still kills 10,000 every year?

Oh, and what evidence do you have that Covid-19 has already mutated? None I suspect.

Whatever happened to Gordaleman.
Havent seen any posts from him lately. Hope he is ok
Dont worry, he's posted today about Joe Hart.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 11:03 am

Zlatan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 9:23 pm
I’ll admit I didn’t think it was going to be as serious as it had turned out. The thing is, and this is the crux of the matter, once it became serious in February I expected our government to be authoritative about things and take control to ensure that we did what was right for the people of this country. What has actually happened is there has been campaigns and rhetoric with no actual substance with so many people not taking notice of their responsibility probably because those in authority didn’t demonstrate and lead by example (we’ve done that to death haven’t we!) The result of which had resulted in the highest number of deaths in Europe.

Complacency or incompetence - I’m not sure which or a combination of both but like I said, that’s the crux of it.
I was one of the numerous posters who downplayed the threat,however you'd imagine the people in positions of power had much more information than anybody on this MB, and whether by accident or design they choose to adopt a herd immunity strategy in the initial stages,only coming to a late decision to lockdown (BTW this includes all the devolved UK governments so it's not a party political point).

I totally agree we've badly lacked leadership and clarity during this crisis, indeed we still do, and this doesn't reflect well on our politicians.

Fail to prepare prepare to fail, this Benjamin Franklin quote sums up the whole sorry saga for me, it can only be fervently hoped that in the event of a 2nd wave we've learnt valuable lessons.

Equally the public need to bear some responsibility for their selfish behaviour, we can't heap all the blame onto the governments.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun May 31, 2020 11:03 am

The government's handling of the situation has been very bad (imo) but perhaps forgivable up to now. Many of us on here will admit to misreading the situation early on and then changing our minds in the light of new information (that is what integrity is).

From this point forward, if the government continue along this incompetent path, it will be much less so. They should now have the information to implement correct policy decisions that will get us out of both the health and immediate economic crises. They know which countries have implemented successful strategies and which countries have been unsuccessful. They know what those strategies are.

Currently they are removing lockdown restrictions with 'daily infection rates' still high and no viable 'containment plan' in place. It looks like we are making exactly the same mistake that we made in early March. We badly need a working 'track and trace system' like they have in Korea, New Zealand and other countries. We need to be testing more - not just people with symptoms. Wearing face coverings in public places has also proved beneficial in other countries.

In the UK, none of the 'viable containment plan' requirements are fully in place yet we are lifting restrictions. In Iran they to have used this strategy - a few weeks earlier than us. They are now experiencing their second wave of the virus.

In Korea,due to their 'containment plan' they have never had to go into a national lockdown. Their current discussion in football is about getting fans back into stadiums.

The UK government have promised that, if the virus starts to spread again, they will re-implement the restrictions. We don't want that to happen. Going in and out of lockdown, even if it's only for a few months, will be an economic catastrophe and each wave will lead to more deaths and ruined lives.

I think that we need to do something along the following lines:
  • Keep the restrictions until:
    • The New Case Rate is well below 1000
    • A working Track and Trace system is up and running and proven to be working
    • Face coverings are a legal requirement in public buildings and town centres
    • All carers are regularly tested.
    • Testing is increased (not just capacity to test)
We need policies that will enable us to come out of the restrictions and stay out.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Sun May 31, 2020 11:07 am

Had a day off the news yesterday. Nice to wake up this morning to the news we’ve found a vaccine allowing us to move to threat level 1 and let the vulnerable out. Great news, I’d thought they would make a bigger deal out of it though.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 11:13 am

Top Claret wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 7:22 am
The NHS have been sending patients back to care homes knowing full well that they have the Covid symptoms. The NHS as a lot to answer for and should be made accountable instead of passing the buck all the time.
My dealings with the NHS in the past as been mixed, when dealing with my deased parents. I have found the management on the words to be very poor, but A&E excellent.
Well it'll all come out in the subsequent inquiry, what i don't understand is why the decision was made to send covid positive patients back into care homes, i get that they didn't want to overburden the NHS but in most hospital trusts spare capacity existed, and that's even before you factor in the temporary hospitals, which have been barely utilised.

The warnings from France, Italy and Spain should have been heeded, forewarned is forearmed, but for whatever reason these weren't acted upon.

Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 11:17 am

Granny WeatherWax wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:07 am
Had a day off the news yesterday. Nice to wake up this morning to the news we’ve found a vaccine allowing us to move to threat level 1 and let the vulnerable out. Great news, I’d thought they would make a bigger deal out of it though.
I suspect sarcasm... :)

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 11:24 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:03 am
The government's handling of the situation has been very bad (imo) but perhaps forgivable up to now. Many of us on here will admit to misreading the situation early on and then changing our minds in the light of new information (that is what integrity is).

From this point forward, if the government continue along this incompetent path, it will be much less so. They should now have the information to implement correct policy decisions that will get us out of both the health and immediate economic crises. They know which countries have implemented successful strategies and which countries have been unsuccessful. They know what those strategies are.

Currently they are removing lockdown restrictions with 'daily infection rates' still high and no viable 'containment plan' in place. It looks like we are making exactly the same mistake that we made in early March. We badly need a working 'track and trace system' like they have in Korea, New Zealand and other countries. We need to be testing more - not just people with symptoms. Wearing face coverings in public places has also proved beneficial in other countries.

In the UK, none of the 'viable containment plan' requirements are fully in place yet we are lifting restrictions. In Iran they to have used this strategy - a few weeks earlier than us. They are now experiencing their second wave of the virus.

In Korea,due to their 'containment plan' they have never had to go into a national lockdown. Their current discussion in football is about getting fans back into stadiums.

The UK government have promised that, if the virus starts to spread again, they will re-implement the restrictions. We don't want that to happen. Going in and out of lockdown, even if it's only for a few months, will be an economic catastrophe and each wave will lead to more deaths and ruined lives.

I think that we need to do something along the following lines:
  • Keep the restrictions until:
    • The New Case Rate is well below 1000
    • A working Track and Trace system is up and running and proven to be working
    • Face coverings are a legal requirement in public buildings and town centres
    • All carers are regularly tested.
    • Testing is increased (not just capacity to test)
We need policies that will enable us to come out of the restrictions and stay out.
Can't disagree with a single word,my biggest worry is it'll be an awful lot harder to implement a 2nd lockdown if it's required.

Once again we seem to be trying to run before we can walk,and if we stumble this time it'll cost irreparable damage both in terms of lives, but just as importantly in job losses and the longer-term economic and social impact on society.

FactualFrank
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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Sun May 31, 2020 11:30 am

Chinese scientists working on a COVID-19 vaccine have told Sky News they are "99%" sure it will be effective.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... m-11996787

jackmiggins
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Re: Covid-19

Post by jackmiggins » Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 am

If this is true, there may be a suspicion that the work was started quite a while ago? Wonder how much they will sell it for?

jackmiggins
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Re: Covid-19

Post by jackmiggins » Sun May 31, 2020 11:45 am

Grumps wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:04 am
How many do you want me to find Jack?
Sorry, was a little mean - couldn’t think of a larger nut - two Walnuts? :lol: :lol:

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 11:53 am

jackmiggins wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 am
If this is true, there may be a suspicion that the work was started quite a while ago? Wonder how much they will sell it for?
Such cynicism :) i'd take any claims emerging from China with a large pinch of salt,that said it does sound promising, but it'll be a long while before it's ready for widespread distribution they're still only at stage 2 and that'll take some time to complete.

Devils_Advocate
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun May 31, 2020 12:05 pm

Granny WeatherWax wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:07 am
Had a day off the news yesterday. Nice to wake up this morning to the news we’ve found a vaccine allowing us to move to threat level 1 and let the vulnerable out. Great news, I’d thought they would make a bigger deal out of it though.
Dont forget to give Raab credit for the new level he came up with this morning

Image

CombatClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sun May 31, 2020 12:11 pm

So on Monday we let the vulnerable out, I swear to god it's all going to sh1t and the government are the ones stoking the flames.
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UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun May 31, 2020 12:46 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:13 am
Well it'll all come out in the subsequent inquiry, what i don't understand is why the decision was made to send covid positive patients back into care homes, i get that they didn't want to overburden the NHS but in most hospital trusts spare capacity existed, and that's even before you factor in the temporary hospitals, which have been barely utilised.

The warnings from France, Italy and Spain should have been heeded, forewarned is forearmed, but for whatever reason these weren't acted upon.
David Starkey gives a good explanation about what happened to cause this. It's in a 'so what your saying is' interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S8Js-tEmlg

I think it was the weekend beginning 13th March.
  • The UK were seemingly following a 'herd immunity policy'.
  • The number of cases doubled over the weekend to 1,543.
  • The UK government was worried that the NHS would be overwhelmed all over the country
  • The NHS is a big political football between political parties. If the NHS was seen to be overwhelmed under a Tory government it would be politically disastrous for years to come.
  • The government decided to put everything into saving the face of the NHS.
  • Beds were cleared in hospitals to get them ready for Covid. In the words of David Starkey "The elderley, cancer patients, heart attack patients, the lot".
  • Treating patients other than Covid became a low priority causing many doctors to break their Hippocratic oath's
  • Some patients were discharged into care homes carrying the virus. Care homes are not part of the NHS so were given low priority
In the aftermath of all this it will likely be seen that a lot of additional deaths were caused by non-covid patients not receiving the care they badly needed.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 12:58 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:46 pm
David Starkey gives a good explanation about what happened to cause this. It's in a 'so what your saying is' interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S8Js-tEmlg

I think it was the weekend beginning 13th March.
  • The UK were seemingly following a 'herd immunity policy'.
  • The number of cases doubled over the weekend to 1,543.
  • The UK government was worried that the NHS would be overwhelmed all over the country
  • The NHS is a big political football between political parties. If the NHS was seen to be overwhelmed under a Tory government it would be politically disastrous for years to come.
  • The government decided to put everything into saving the face of the NHS.
  • Beds were cleared in hospitals to get them ready for Covid. In the words of David Starkey "The elderley, cancer patients, heart attack patients, the lot".
  • Treating patients other than Covid became a low priority causing many doctors to break their Hippocratic oath's
  • Some patients were discharged into care homes carrying the virus. Care homes are not part of the NHS so were given low priority
In the aftermath of all this it will likely be seen that a lot of additional deaths were caused by non-covid patients not receiving the care they badly needed.
Yes there was definitely a rapid policy switch around mid-March from herd immunity to protect the NHS at all costs. Sadly that cost appears to have been 1000's of avoidable deaths, whether from covid or other causes.

As for the social care sector it needs cross-party agreement on how to fund and sustain it, for far too long politicians of all hues have shied away from making tough decisions, if anything positive can be taken from the CV crisis hopefully social care will now get the priority it's long needed and our elderly population will be treated with the respect they deserve.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jackmiggins » Sun May 31, 2020 1:42 pm

My sister was transferred to a care home, to convalesce, three years ago. She died a week later, but at substantial expense. Enough said.

Lord Rothbury
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lord Rothbury » Sun May 31, 2020 1:54 pm

100's attend East London lockdown party. Many more march through Peckham to support BLM. How soon before the Nightingale Hospital has to re-open.
It is all the fault of the government.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Blackrod » Sun May 31, 2020 2:49 pm

Lord Rothbury wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 1:54 pm
100's attend East London lockdown party. Many more march through Peckham to support BLM. How soon before the Nightingale Hospital has to re-open.
It is all the fault of the government.
Difficult for the govt after backing Cummings imo. They’ve lost face. The above however is the fault of selfish diots attending the party. Only one person was tasered. Good job I wasn’t in charge of the tasering.I would send them off to a discipline camp in Siberia or China.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 2:50 pm

I’ve counted 6 households in my street having BBQ parties today, cars parked everywhere. It’s OK though, as someone who’s shielding I’m allowed to go for a walk tomorrow.

If anyone doesn’t understand why I was so vociferous about Cummings - this is why.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sun May 31, 2020 2:58 pm

Lord Rothbury wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 1:54 pm
100's attend East London lockdown party. Many more march through Peckham to support BLM. How soon before the Nightingale Hospital has to re-open.
It is all the fault of the government.
I assume you are jesting if not it is the people not social distancing and not washing their hands that will cause this. We have been advised time and time again. THat lots of BME protest in London about what has happened in the US (shocking that it is) tells you a great deal about joe public. Their justified outrage seems to have been expressed by many not observing social distancing.
I hope no one catches Covid in that crowd

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Sun May 31, 2020 3:09 pm

I'm quite mad about all these breeches. I have done my upmost to isolate, I have missed my family and friends dreadfully, avoided work were possible and now to see these selfish bstards who assume rules don't apply to them, corona virus wont affect them or theirs, their social responsibility isn't an issue as they are soooooooo important and really do need to be the centre of attention. Instead of track and trace the government should buy drones and fine people if they wont pay ot cannot pay stop social security stop furlough money put an attachment of earnings on salaries that would really work. No upper limits on fines.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 3:24 pm

Spanish PM seeks to extend emergency to 'finish virus'

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has requested a "final extension" to the country's state of emergency "to finish with the pandemic once and for all".

The measures limit the movement of people even as lockdown rules are eased.

The extension will have to be ratified by the Spanish parliament on Wednesday and would mean the state of alert - which was announced on 14 March - remains in place until 21 June.

Spain has been one of the worst-affected countries globally by the pandemic. Almost 28,000 people have died and around 233,000 infections have been confirmed.

But the number of new cases has fallen dramatically in recent weeks - on Saturday infections rose by 271 and only four new deaths were reported.

Compare the cautious Spanish approach with our foolhardiness, and they are only recording deaths in single figures.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 3:28 pm

Coronavirus: 'I'm high risk but made a full recovery'https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/disability-52808094

Quickenthetempo
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Quickenthetempo » Sun May 31, 2020 3:33 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:50 pm
I’ve counted 6 households in my street having BBQ parties today, cars parked everywhere. It’s OK though, as someone who’s shielding I’m allowed to go for a walk tomorrow.

If anyone doesn’t understand why I was so vociferous about Cummings - this is why.
I know you're very upset about Cummins but it's got well out of hand.
The left have got after the family home, the policeman that didn't give him life imprisonment, you post about his dads estate and council tax.

The right retaliate and find out the ex teacher who grassed Cummins up had also drove 250 miles to pick his daughter up. They have gone after all the evidence and people who have made things up (according to them).

Where does it end?

Lives ruined?

Riots?

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 4:12 pm

If you think our lot are bad(and they are) just imagine living in Brazil with this Bolsonaro head case.

The coronavirus death toll in Brazil is now the world's fourth-highest.

On Saturday, the number of deaths in Brazil surpassed that of Spain, and on Sunday it overtook France.

Brazil has now recorded 28,834 fatalities, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. It has the world's second-highest number of confirmed infections.

It's a sign of how the country has failed to get the virus under control despite dire warning signs from Europe and Asia.

It should be said however that Brazil's population - at more than 200 million - is several times larger than those of the Western European countries.

Yet despite the steadily worsening situation in Brazil, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has continued to downplay the severity of the outbreak, opposing lockdowns instituted by state and city governments.

First he continued destroying the Amazon rainforest when he knew it was harming the planet, and now he's completely ignoring the threat of covid and his citizens are paying dearly for it.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm

I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).

Then compare and contrast to the risk of obesity, which many people willingly sign up to, losing 4 years of life on average, or of smoking, losing over a year of life for 10-20 years smoking on average. Those are the probable outcomes for an average person.

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the government (edited-autocorrect) have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?

p.s. I agreed with the initial lockdown, but that was then, this is now, and social distancing should remain while the virus retreats.
Last edited by CrosspoolClarets on Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Devils_Advocate
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun May 31, 2020 4:50 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm
I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.
Im guessing a big part of it is because for a couple of months the govt hid behind the science and took little accountability for their decisions - You might remember lots of people on here telling us how it wouldn't make a difference who was in charge as the science is the science

If the govt are gonna chop and change their approach as they please you shouldn't be surprised when the media holds a mirror to their actions

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sun May 31, 2020 4:50 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm
I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).

Then compare and contrast to the risk of obesity, which many people willingly sign up to, losing 4 years of life on average, or of smoking, losing over a year of life for 10-20 years smoking on average. Those are the probable outcomes for an average person.

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the duty have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?

p.s. I agreed with the initial lockdown, but that was then, this is now, and social distancing should remain while the virus retreats.
The media are probably rolling out the scientists as you put it, because many in the scientific community want to make it clear easing the lockdown is purely a political decision. Now it's perfectly within the government's right to do that, but if it doesn't go as hoped they can't then turn round and state they were following the science.

My biggest fear is the virus isn't retreating and the more it's in the community the greater the risk of a 2nd spike. Most young people will get mild symptoms or no symptoms but that's not true of all, and more pertinently there's a lot of doubt as too how much children in particular can spread the virus.

All that said i do think schools should reopen even if class sizes are reduced, and some people should return to work if it's practical to do so.

Social distancing should be straightforward enough to most sensible citizens, but as the countless news stories have shown there's plenty of citizens who aren't using common sense.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Spijed » Sun May 31, 2020 4:59 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm
I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).

Then compare and contrast to the risk of obesity, which many people willingly sign up to, losing 4 years of life on average, or of smoking, losing over a year of life for 10-20 years smoking on average. Those are the probable outcomes for an average person.

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the duty have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?

p.s. I agreed with the initial lockdown, but that was then, this is now, and social distancing should remain while the virus retreats.
The quandary is how/when can you allow those who are vulnerable to meet other people (get close to them) without a vaccine?

That is a big issue and one that won't go away. For example, without a vaccine or treatment, anyone over 70 who has diabetes is in grave danger from the virus and how many months or years will they need to shield?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sun May 31, 2020 5:14 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm
I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).
56.1 million working age people in the UK, so from today only 56 of them will die of Covid?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sun May 31, 2020 5:31 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 5:14 pm
56.1 million working age people in the UK, so from today only 56 of them will die of Covid?
Most people who die, are over working age.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sun May 31, 2020 5:33 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 5:14 pm
56.1 million working age people in the UK, so from today only 56 of them will die of Covid?
I have no idea whether the figures are right (they seem low) but there are more like 35-40 million people of working age, I would have thought, after all the pensioners and children are taken out; and the stats refer to those who haven't got coronavirus now. There will no doubt be deaths among people of working age who have already caught it, who wouldn't be in the 56.

Up to 15th May, deaths in the 20-64 age group total 4,554. The next group is 65-69 and there are 2,385 in that group. Up to 15th May, those stats.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sun May 31, 2020 6:20 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 5:33 pm
I have no idea whether the figures are right (they seem low) but there are more like 35-40 million people of working age, I would have thought, after all the pensioners and children are taken out; and the stats refer to those who haven't got coronavirus now. There will no doubt be deaths among people of working age who have already caught it, who wouldn't be in the 56.

Up to 15th May, deaths in the 20-64 age group total 4,554. The next group is 65-69 and there are 2,385 in that group. Up to 15th May, those stats.
Sorry my figure was wrong. So lets take yours and say we ignore people who have it, add two weeks. So from June 14th only 35-40 working age people will die?
My point was Crosspoll jut pulled his 'one in a million change of dying' out of nowhere.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sun May 31, 2020 6:28 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the duty have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?
You're not fighting the media, you're fighting human psychology.

The 5 Rules of Risk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtX-Ibi21tU&t=723s

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun May 31, 2020 6:31 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 4:33 pm
I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).

Then compare and contrast to the risk of obesity, which many people willingly sign up to, losing 4 years of life on average, or of smoking, losing over a year of life for 10-20 years smoking on average. Those are the probable outcomes for an average person.

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the duty have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?

p.s. I agreed with the initial lockdown, but that was then, this is now, and social distancing should remain while the virus retreats.

I think you misheard the quote about the chances of getting it being 4000 to one.

Cant possibly be that low if you think about it.

Whats more amazing is that Grumps has liked it ( thinking about it not amazing )

Dont you think before posting

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sun May 31, 2020 6:38 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 6:31 pm
I think you misheard the quote about the chances of getting it being 4000 to one.

Cant possibly be that low if you think about it.

Whats more amazing is that Grumps has liked it ( thinking about it not amazing )

Dont you think before posting
Only you, only you could make an issue out of someone liking a post, thinking they agree with every sentence, word etc rather than the general gist of the post. Now run off, your wife wants to log on, or is this the wife, I've lost track.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun May 31, 2020 6:51 pm

Grumps wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 6:38 pm
Only you, only you could make an issue out of someone liking a post, thinking they agree with every sentence, word etc rather than the general gist of the post. Now run off, your wife wants to log on, or is this the wife, I've lost track.
Saying chance of catching it is 1 in 4,000 is absolute ********.

He then goes on to say the risk of dying from it is a million to one. Again absolute ********.

What was the general gist ?

But heyho you go like it. Says more about you than me
Last edited by paulatky on Sun May 31, 2020 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 6:57 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 6:51 pm
Saying chance of catching it is 1 in 4,000 is absolute ********.
Nope, it’s that order of magnitude at this moment in time

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/183 ... -covid-19/

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Re: Covid-19

Post by J50 » Sun May 31, 2020 7:03 pm

martin_p wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 2:52 pm
No, it was his dad that had it, they closed the school down for a deep clean as his child had returned to school before his father was diagnosed.

I think we're talking about a different school...

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Re: Covid-19

Post by J50 » Sun May 31, 2020 7:08 pm

J50 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 7:03 pm
I think we're talking about a different school...
Blimey, it was the 5th March, seems a long time ago...

https://www.mylondon.news/news/west-lon ... e-17858491

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun May 31, 2020 7:42 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 6:57 pm
Nope, it’s that order of magnitude at this moment in time

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/183 ... -covid-19/
Thats a very misleading quote then,

Thats the chance each and every day. So over a month you have 30 chances ( in June ) of catching it each day so at the end of the month your chance of catching it during June is 130 to 1.
And over a 3 month period it would be a 40 to 1 chance.

The way I look at it is every time you come into contact with anyone from outside your household you are affectively getting a raffle ticket for getting the virus. The more tickets you acquire the more chance you have of catching it,
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Sun May 31, 2020 8:06 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 7:42 pm
Thats a very misleading quote then,

Thats the chance each and every day. So over a month you have 30 chances ( in June ) of catching it each day so at the end of the month your chance of catching it during June is 130 to 1.
And over a 3 month period it would be a 40 to 1 chance.

The way I look at it is every time you come into contact with anyone from outside your household you are affectively getting a raffle ticket for getting the virus. The more tickets you acquire the more chance you have of catching it,
No, I’m sure the chance if that figure is correct is 1 in 4000 every day unless the R changes either way

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