Covid-19

[paulatky]

No, I’m sure the chance if that figure is correct is 1 in 4000 every day unless the R changes either way

Yes 4000 to 1 each and every day. So after 30 days you have had 30 chances ar 4000 to 1 which means over that period you have a 133 to 1 chance of getting it over that period,

[Zlatan]

Yes 4000 to 1 each and every day. So after 30 days you have had 30 chances ar 4000 to 1 which means over that period you have a 133 to 1 chance of getting it over that period,

The chance is 1 in 4000 every day, it is not cumulative

[Devils_Advocate]

The chance is 1 in 4000 every day, it is not cumulative

To give an example of what I think the point is that Paul is making is if you rolled a die the chances of rolling a six is 5-1. If you rolled a die every day for a month it would be 5-1 every day but the chances of you rolling a 6 that month would not be 5-1 but would be an almost certainty

[paulatky]

The chance is 1 in 4000 every day, it is not cumulative

So in a month what chance does someone have of catching it over a 30 day period

[Zlatan]

To give an example of what I think the point is that Paul is making is if you rolled a die the chances of rolling a six is 5-1. If you rolled a die every day for a month it would be 5-1 every day but the chances of you rolling a 6 that month would not be 5-1 but would be an almost certainty

Sorry, I think you’re wrong. The outcome of today’s not catching (or catching) Covid does not affect the outcome of tomorrow’s not catching (or catching) Covid.

The chance today is 1 in 4000
The chance tomorrow is still 1 in 4000
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless R changes.

It is not cumulative.

If I roll one die today I have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a six
If I roll the same die tomorrow, I still have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless the number of faces change

[Zlatan]

So in a month what chance does someone have of catching it over a 30 day period

With the current R - 1 in 4000 (if that value stated above is accurate - I haven’t calculated it, I stated earlier that it was of the right order of magnitude)

[Devils_Advocate]

Sorry, I think you’re wrong. The outcome of today’s not catching (or catching) Covid does not affect the outcome of tomorrow’s not catching (or catching) Covid.

The chance today is 1 in 4000
The chance tomorrow is still 1 in 4000
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless R changes.

It is not cumulative.

If I roll one die today I have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a six
If I roll the same die tomorrow, I still have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless the number of faces change

So if I offered you a bet of £100 that if I rolled a die once a day for 30 days I would hit a 6 would you take that even odds bet? (even though the odds of me rolling a 6 is 5-1)

Edit: if youre interested in carrying this discussion on as a stats discussion we should maybe start our own thread not to side track this one and bore everyone else

[UnderSeige]

I’m still bemused by the media rolling out these scientists to have a go at the government. It’s been all weekend.

The risk of getting Covid-19 is apparently 1 in 4000 according to Vallance, which then leads me to conclude that the risk of dying from it (for a working age person) is over a million to one (which includes the reduced chance of getting it first).

Then compare and contrast to the risk of obesity, which many people willingly sign up to, losing 4 years of life on average, or of smoking, losing over a year of life for 10-20 years smoking on average. Those are the probable outcomes for an average person.

I don’t get why people are terrified of reopening schools and demanding the government to keep them closed, but not terrified of shoving another cheeseburger down their gob or lighting another cigarette? Surely the media have a duty to ensure that there is balance in how people are told to assess risk, and surely the duty have a right to balance these probabilities and try to get the economy moving?

p.s. I agreed with the initial lockdown, but that was then, this is now, and social distancing should remain while the virus retreats.

Boris Johnson said that in order to get a realistic figure for Coronavirus cases you need to multiply the official figures by ten.
Some scientists/virologists say that the figure is more like 20.
Today's total cases for UK: 274,762 multiplied by 10 = 2,747,620
Official death rate is 38,489.

One of the little discussed aspects of this virus is the number of people who will recover but end up with permanent severe health problems. There is a great danger of damage to lungs, kidneys and liver. I have also heard that the virus particles have been known to attack white blood cells releasing the iron stored in them and making the blood toxic. A number of patients in intensive care have been put on dialysis machines due to kidney failure.

Chris Martenson (Dr of Pathology) has discussed this at length. He calls it the new Polio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2UoBUcW2I

Risk does not come into it. If you breath in the air that has been exhaled by someone with the virus, you will catch the virus. The air droplets released by someone with the virus stays in the air for around three hours before it finally makes contact with a surface or the floor. There is no immunity. If left unchecked it is likely to infect 70%-80% of the UK before 'herd immunity' is achieved.

Smoking has been made socially unacceptable. It is not allowed in many public places and discouraged by health authorities. As with obesity, smoking now effects only the person doing it healthwise.

Releasing the economy will not be achieved by lifting the restrictions too early. The virus will start to spread again at an exponential rate and the government will reimpose the restrictions. How many times can the economy bear this? How many 'job losses' each time the restrictions are reimposed are acceptable?

I have said in other posts that we need an effective 'containment strategy' in place. Then, and only then, release the restrictions. Ministers are always telling us that they are 'working hard'. Perhaps they need to 'work smart'. The press have the right and duty to hold them accountable.

[paulatky]

Sorry, I think you’re wrong. The outcome of today’s not catching (or catching) Covid does not affect the outcome of tomorrow’s not catching (or catching) Covid.

The chance today is 1 in 4000
The chance tomorrow is still 1 in 4000
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless R changes.

It is not cumulative.

If I roll one die today I have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a six
If I roll the same die tomorrow, I still have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6
Etc
Etc
Etc
Unless the number of faces change

You are wrong

Assume their are 40,00,000 people in the UK.

Day 1 at a chance of 4,000 to one , 10,000 people will get it,

Day 2 another 10,000 have got infected,

After 30 days 300,000 have been infected.

So the chances of one person out of that population of 40,000,000 getting it is 40,000,000 divided by 300,000 = 133 to 1

[NewClaret]

I was bored this morning, so I read the start of this thread.
I got as far as the end of February
You were quite vocal throughout that time that it was no worse than flu, so when in February did it actually get serious?

Very few of the posters who are on here all the time now have yet to make an appearance by 28th Feb. Those that do, in the main, treat it as a joke.

Jackub, who started the thread obviously saw something, but was shouted down

Lowbankclaret was consistent with his message

Paulalty was predicting the end of the world, so he hasn't changed

But where were the rest of those who are now saying it was obvious from jan/Feb that it was a big problem,who was saying... all borders should be shut, everyone should stay indoors, the government should be doing more!!!

They weren't............ But with hindsight they do.

I don't have a problem looking back, and saying we could/should have done this better, or that quicker, but please let's not pretend we all had the answers back in Feb and it was just the government who didn't see it coming.

I've changed my view a few times, at first I was with Zlatan and it would be no worse than flu, and said that. When the deaths were touching a thousand a day I thought it was going to get worse. Now, if people keep to the social distancing it won't be as bad as I thought it would get then.

Iam off for my coffee now.

Brilliant post, Grumps. I’ve never been able to muster up the enthusiasm to read back, but have been wondering what all the Nostradamus’ calling the Goverments response were saying back then. Pretty much what I thought, as it turns out - nothing.

I’ll be the first to say I think the Government should have locked down harder and sooner, particularly in relation to air travel, but I didn’t at the time. I thought they were playing it perfectly, actually. And for that reason, it’s not fair to berate them after the event.

I also think, when criticising you have to also be able to apportion credit where it’s due. There are many things this Government has done brilliantly - the furlough scheme saving millions of jobs (hopefully), business loan schemes, protecting NHS ventilator capacity, implementing a fairly even handed lockdown that has been fairy bearable really, etc.

On another note, I see a Labour MP broke lockdown by driving miles to take a five hour walk with her married boyfriend. I assume this will be subject of its own 15 page thread and days of vociferating?

[Swizzlestick]

On another note, I see a Labour MP broke lockdown by driving miles to take a five hour walk with her married boyfriend. I assume this will be subject of its own 15 page thread and days of vociferating?

Considering she apologised and resigned, I’m going to go with ‘no’.

Spot the difference. It shouldn’t take you long.

[paulatky]

So if I offered you a bet of £100 that if I rolled a die once a day for 30 days I would hit a 6 would you take that even odds bet? (even though the odds of me rolling a 6 is 5-1)

Edit: if youre interested in carrying this discussion on as a stats discussion we should maybe start our own thread not to side track this one and bore everyone else

On average you would hit 5 sixes in that time and if hitting a 6 means you are dead you will have died 5 times,

Zlatan would argue black is white and Grumps would agree with him,

What chance have we got.

[UnderSeige]

Thats a very misleading quote then,

Thats the chance each and every day. So over a month you have 30 chances ( in June ) of catching it each day so at the end of the month your chance of catching it during June is 130 to 1.
And over a 3 month period it would be a 40 to 1 chance.

The way I look at it is every time you come into contact with anyone from outside your household you are affectively getting a raffle ticket for getting the virus. The more tickets you acquire the more chance you have of catching it,

That's a really good way of explaining it.

In addition he process would continue until 70%-80% of the UK contracted the virus or were vaccinated against it.

[Devils_Advocate]

On average you would hit 5 sixes in that time and if hitting a 6 means you are dead you will have died 5 times,

Zlatan would argue black is white and Grumps would agree with him,

What chance have we got.

I agree with your point on this but all you've done today is try and bait people (Grumps particularly) and have stupid arguments.

Either try and discuss like an adult or crawl back under your rock cos some of us dont want idiots like you to spoil threads and get them shut down

[Zlatan]

You are wrong

Assume their are 40,00,000 people in the UK.

Day 1 at a chance of 4,000 to one , 10,000 people will get it,

Day 2 another 10,000 have got infected,

After 30 days 300,000 have been infected.

So the chances of one person out of that population of 40,000,000 getting it is 40,000,000 divided by 300,000 = 133 to 1

Fair enough, I was wrong (probably)

[tiger76]

Sweden reports no new deaths

Sweden has not reported any new coronavirus deaths for the first time in over two months.

No new fatalities were reported on Sunday, although there are often delays in reporting deaths over weekends.

Sweden chose a controversial approach to the coronavirus outbreak and did not impose a lockdown, unlike the rest of Scandinavia. But its death toll from the virus is also by far the highest in Scandinavia, with 4,395 deaths.

Earlier this week, Norway and Denmark announced they would open tourism between the two countries, but restrictions remain in place for Swedes.

[tiger76]

Poland records fewest cases in two months

There was positive news in Poland as the country recorded the fewest coronavirus infections in two months.

Sunday's figures released by the health ministry show there were 219 new cases recorded, down from 416 on Saturday.

The number of virus-related deaths fell to three from 10 on Saturday. The total number of cases so far is 23,786 with 1,064 deaths.

[tiger76]

Spain records fewer than 100 new infections

Spain has recorded its lowest number of new infections in almost three months, with 96 new cases reported on Sunday. Just two deaths were recorded.

By comparison the UK recorded 1,936 new confirmed cases and 113 deaths today. In Italy the numbers were 355 infections and 75 deaths.

Spain's figures are a massive fall from early April, when the country recorded 950 deaths and several thousand new cases in a single day.

The country has already begun easing its lockdown restrictions, which were among the strictest in Europe. But the government remains cautious and the prime minister has requested a two-week extension to the state of emergency.

More than 27,000 people have died in Spain since the pandemic began and around 240,000 cases have been recorded.

[paulatky]

I agree with your point on this but all you've done today is try and bait people (Grumps particularly) and have stupid arguments.

Either try and discuss like an adult or crawl back under your rock cos some of us dont want idiots like you to spoil threads and get them shut down

I have only been on a few times.
What amazed me about that statistics post was just how wrong it was.

I was amazed how many people had commented on it and not spotted it was a load of ********.

And your post is somewhat ironic in that you tell me to crawl back under a rock and call me an idiot.

You think you are the be all and end all on hear with your sign on name.

You really are a sad individual who thinks he knows it all.

I dont suffer fools and can spot them a mile off.

[paulatky]

I agree with your point on this but all you've done today is try and bait people (Grumps particularly) and have stupid arguments.

Either try and discuss like an adult or crawl back under your rock cos some of us dont want idiots like you to spoil threads and get them shut down

I posted twice before 10.00 am and didnt post again until 6.30 about the statistic thread .

How you can call that all day is quite honestly beyond me.

And what stupid arguments. You agree I am right about the statistics debate.

You are the ultimate keyboard warrior and a cyber bully who just likes hearing his own voice

[Devils_Advocate]

I posted twice before 10.00 am and didnt post again until 6.30 about the statistic thread .

How you can call that all day is quite honestly beyond me.

And what stupid arguments. You agree I am right about the statistics debate.

You are the ultimate keyboard warrior and a cyber bully who just likes hearing his own voice

You posted 5 times before my post and every single one of them had a dig at Grumps. Only one out of those 5 was in response to him and he only posted at you because you had goaded him to

There is just no need for than kind of baiting on here and if I gave you half the chance you would go on and on about it with me relentlessly

Ive made my point and whether you try and respect it is up to you but you will now be talking to yourself if you carry on having a hissy fit at me

[Bfcboyo]

I agree with your point on this but all you've done today is try and bait people (Grumps particularly) and have stupid arguments.

Either try and discuss like an adult or crawl back under your rock cos some of us dont want idiots like you to spoil threads and get them shut down

Was it not the needless name calling and personal insults that were getting threads closed down.
Greenhouse windows and all that.

[NewClaret]

Considering she apologised and resigned, I’m going to go with ‘no’.

Spot the difference. It shouldn’t take you long.

She’s only resigned from her role in the shadow cabinet, not her job. Shes not forgone her job or cushy £80k salary, has she?

Some other differences are:

- she’s an elected Public figure, not an employee.
- she’s committed a far more serious breach of lockdown rules by travelling to spend five hours with her married lover from another household.

Since many on here wanted DC “out” for spending lockdown with his family, surely they will want this MP to resign her post completely? I’m sure the Guardian, Observer and BBC will be calling for her to quit her job for the next five days?

[NewClaret]

Spain records fewer than 100 new infections

Spain has recorded its lowest number of new infections in almost three months, with 96 new cases reported on Sunday. Just two deaths were recorded.

By comparison the UK recorded 1,936 new confirmed cases and 113 deaths today. In Italy the numbers were 355 infections and 75 deaths.

Spain's figures are a massive fall from early April, when the country recorded 950 deaths and several thousand new cases in a single day.

The country has already begun easing its lockdown restrictions, which were among the strictest in Europe. But the government remains cautious and the prime minister has requested a two-week extension to the state of emergency.

More than 27,000 people have died in Spain since the pandemic began and around 240,000 cases have been recorded.

If this is true, which I find hard to believe and perhaps convenient heading in to tourist season, it makes it all the more unbelievable they’re willing to put this success in jeopardy by reopening their borders.

[keith1879]

If this is true, which I find hard to believe and perhaps convenient heading in to tourist season, it makes it all the more unbelievable they’re willing to put this success in jeopardy by reopening their borders.

Spain's figures have been very strange for the last 6 days and it looks inevitable that some substantial corrections will occur. With regard to Sweden (mentioned above as having reported no deaths on 31st)...this too is definitely misleading.
Each of the last three Sundays they have reported a trivial figure. If you look at their 7 day moving average figures they actually went UP for 7 consecutive days (23rd to 29th) and they look to be having a second spike.

[Blackrod]

Some MPs are pushing to relax the 2 m rule to 1.5 m. What’s the point ? Most people seem to think 2 m is the same as a 2 feet. As far as the crowds on Bournemouth beach go I’m just assuming they are very thick. Why time this announcement before the weekend and this Cummings situation has not helped at all. Let’s just hope there is no 2nd spike.

[Swizzlestick]

She’s only resigned from her role in the shadow cabinet, not her job. Shes not forgone her job or cushy £80k salary, has she?

Some other differences are:

- she’s an elected Public figure, not an employee.
- she’s committed a far more serious breach of lockdown rules by travelling to spend five hours with her married lover from another household.

Since many on here wanted DC “out” for spending lockdown with his family, surely they will want this MP to resign her post completely? I’m sure the Guardian, Observer and BBC will be calling for her to quit her job for the next five days?

She also wasn’t an integral part of the introduction of the lockdown rules. Which is the key thing here of course. You know that. Nor was she or others displaying symptoms. Again, a crucial element. But, as you say, this is well trodden ground. You’re happy to defend his actions, I’m not. Have a look at this weekend’s activities for an indication of how much the message has been totally diluted. Also the apparent fast tracking of the restrictions being lifted. Not just because of the DC affair of course but I’d say a pretty significant factor. The fact she apologised is even an advancement on DC’s conduct.

[Paul Waine]

Spain records fewer than 100 new infections

Spain has recorded its lowest number of new infections in almost three months, with 96 new cases reported on Sunday. Just two deaths were recorded.

By comparison the UK recorded 1,936 new confirmed cases and 113 deaths today. In Italy the numbers were 355 infections and 75 deaths.

Spain's figures are a massive fall from early April, when the country recorded 950 deaths and several thousand new cases in a single day.

The country has already begun easing its lockdown restrictions, which were among the strictest in Europe. But the government remains cautious and the prime minister has requested a two-week extension to the state of emergency.

More than 27,000 people have died in Spain since the pandemic began and around 240,000 cases have been recorded.

Hi tiger76, appreciate all your "updates around the world."

Did you see the report of a Belgian Prince catching covid-19 at a party in Cordoba?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52864072

[NewClaret]

She also wasn’t an integral part of the introduction of the lockdown rules. Which is the key thing here of course. You know that. Nor was she or others displaying symptoms. Again, a crucial element. But, as you say, this is well trodden ground. You’re happy to defend his actions, I’m not. Have a look at this weekend’s activities for an indication of how much the message has been totally diluted. Also the apparent fast tracking of the restrictions being lifted. Not just because of the DC affair of course but I’d say a pretty significant factor. The fact she apologised is even an advancement on DC’s conduct.

Do agree that she did the right thing apologising. And that he didn’t.

Have no idea what part he played in the introduction of lockdown rules.

I’m not defending Cummings. I think he was wrong (to drive to Barnard Castle, the other bit I’m fine with). I’m saying his treatment by the media was politically motivated and hyperbolic... now they’ll sweep this arguably more flagrant breach under the carpet, which is wrong.

[NewClaret]

Spain's figures have been very strange for the last 6 days and it looks inevitable that some substantial corrections will occur. With regard to Sweden (mentioned above as having reported no deaths on 31st)...this too is definitely misleading.
Each of the last three Sundays they have reported a trivial figure. If you look at their 7 day moving average figures they actually went UP for 7 consecutive days (23rd to 29th) and they look to be having a second spike.

Interesting, thanks.

I do think our figures are much closer to the “gory truth” than that of other governments across Europe.

[CombatClaret]

I was bored this morning, so I read the start of this thread....

But where were the rest of those who are now saying it was obvious from jan/Feb that it was a big problem,who was saying... all borders should be shut, everyone should stay indoors, the government should be doing more!!!

They weren't............ But with hindsight they do.

Compares internet football forum to a first word western government who were having Cobra meetings and advanced briefings on the very issue back in Jan/Feb.
I can forgive the internet forum for now having a better strategy, the other though...

[CombatClaret]

Some MPs are pushing to relax the 2 m rule to 1.5 m. What’s the point ? Most people seem to think 2 m is the same as a 2 feet.

While we are a bit of an outlier with the 2meter rule, given people estimations of 2m is as you point out awful, if it were to be reduced it would essentially be the signal to most to not even bother trying. A lot are there already.

Hearing first hand what a shambles Track & Trace is right now I'm staggered we're unlocking like this. To late in and too quickly out.
It's going to be a long and lonely Christmas.

[Grumps]

Spain records fewer than 100 new infections

Spain has recorded its lowest number of new infections in almost three months, with 96 new cases reported on Sunday. Just two deaths were recorded.

By comparison the UK recorded 1,936 new confirmed cases and 113 deaths today. In Italy the numbers were 355 infections and 75 deaths.

Spain's figures are a massive fall from early April, when the country recorded 950 deaths and several thousand new cases in a single day.

The country has already begun easing its lockdown restrictions, which were among the strictest in Europe. But the government remains cautious and the prime minister has requested a two-week extension to the state of emergency.

More than 27,000 people have died in Spain since the pandemic began and around 240,000 cases have been recorded.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Spain. They went into lockdown a week before us, and like you say it was far more severe than ours

However, they came out of lockdown before us, and on the first day barbers and hairdressers were open. Bars, restaurants, cafes etc were allowed to open outside, subject to distancing rules. This week, the areas that have moved to phase 2 the bars and restaurants can open inside, up to 40% capacity. These areas will be the last to open in the UK, completely opposite.

Holiday islands are hoping to move to phase 3 in the next few weeks, which basically means everything will be open, with reduced capacity, at which time we still won't be able to get a haircut, or visit the pub. It will be interesting to see how both countries do.

[Grumps]

Compares internet football forum to a first word western government who were having Cobra meetings and advanced briefings on the very issue back in Jan/Feb.
I can forgive the internet forum for now having a better strategy, the other though...

Where do I compare the government?
I only make the point about what was being said on here, I Carnt remember if I saw your name or not, sorry you are upset if I left you out.

[Bfcboyo]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

Didn't collapse any economies, has the world gone soft backed by internet and social media . Only time will tell if this has been handled correctly . It may be the government did too much. We won't know until we look back of course.

[fatboy47]

Boris Johnson said that in order to get a realistic figure for Coronavirus cases you need to multiply the official figures by ten.
Some scientists/virologists say that the figure is more like 20.
Today's total cases for UK: 274,762 multiplied by 10 = 2,747,620
Official death rate is 38,489.

One of the little discussed aspects of this virus is the number of people who will recover but end up with permanent severe health problems. There is a great danger of damage to lungs, kidneys and liver. I have also heard that the virus particles have been known to attack white blood cells releasing the iron stored in them and making the blood toxic. A number of patients in intensive care have been put on dialysis machines due to kidney failure.

Chris Martenson (Dr of Pathology) has discussed this at length. He calls it the new Polio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2UoBUcW2I


Risk does not come into it. If you breath in the air that has been exhaled by someone with the virus, you will catch the virus. The air droplets released by someone with the virus stays in the air for around three hours before it finally makes contact with a surface or the floor. There is no immunity. If left unchecked it is likely to infect 70%-80% of the UK before 'herd immunity' is achieved.

Smoking has been made socially unacceptable. It is not allowed in many public places and discouraged by health authorities. As with obesity, smoking now effects only the person doing it healthwise.

Releasing the economy will not be achieved by lifting the restrictions too early. The virus will start to spread again at an exponential rate and the government will reimpose the restrictions. How many times can the economy bear this? How many 'job losses' each time the restrictions are reimposed are acceptable?

I have said in other posts that we need an effective 'containment strategy' in place. Then, and only then, release the restrictions. Ministers are always telling us that they are 'working hard'. Perhaps they need to 'work smart'. The press have the right and duty to hold them accountable.

if youre saying that after 10 weeks of lockdown theres still nearly 3 million cases active, then we should surely bin lockdown asap as its clearly inneffective and not worth the economic carnage it creates

[Zlatan]

if youre saying that after 10 weeks of lockdown theres still nearly 3 million cases active, then we should surely bin lockdown asap as its clearly inneffective and not worth the economic carnage it creates

I think they're banking on herd immunity (as they have been all along with the sham lockdown). There may well be millions of active unknown cases, but if the population has been affected as much as I suspect, the number of people it could infect is drastically lower because there are also millions who will have had it already.

[paulatky]

The number of active cases is currently thought to be approx 120,000 with approx 8,000 new cases per day. The 120,000 has fallen from 140,000 3 weeks ago.

[paulatky]

if youre saying that after 10 weeks of lockdown theres still nearly 3 million cases active, then we should surely bin lockdown asap as its clearly inneffective and not worth the economic carnage it creates

Where does he say there are nearly 3m active cases ?
He infers there may well have been upto 3 million people infected which is a sensible number but in my opinion is nearer 5m

[AndrewJB]

Pretty sure the NHS money comment has been broken down and explained several times now, including on here.

Most people saw it for the shameless lie it was at the time.

[AndrewJB]

Do agree that she did the right thing apologising. And that he didn’t.

Have no idea what part he played in the introduction of lockdown rules.

I’m not defending Cummings. I think he was wrong (to drive to Barnard Castle, the other bit I’m fine with). I’m saying his treatment by the media was politically motivated and hyperbolic... now they’ll sweep this arguably more flagrant breach under the carpet, which is wrong.

His treatment by the media reflects the absence of contrition on his part. Other people have resigned. Cummings refuses to even say sorry.

[Spijed]

South Korea have closed some schools again after a spike in cases:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015

[NottsClaret]

South Korea have closed some schools again after a spike in cases:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015

That was a few days ago, but that's what we want to do here. Keep testing in huge numbers and suppress it where it appears, rather than shutting a country down because 50 people get it in Brighton.

[tiger76]

Hi tiger76, appreciate all your "updates around the world."

Did you see the report of a Belgian Prince catching covid-19 at a party in Cordoba?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52864072

Yep i think somebody else referred to it earlier in the thread, total numpty good job royals don't need brains.

[UnderSeige]

While we are a bit of an outlier with the 2meter rule, given people estimations of 2m is as you point out awful, if it were to be reduced it would essentially be the signal to most to not even bother trying. A lot are there already.

Hearing first hand what a shambles Track & Trace is right now I'm staggered we're unlocking like this. To late in and too quickly out.
It's going to be a long and lonely Christmas.

If they did reduce it to 1.5m more people are likely to be infected. Also, shops and supermarkets will have to remove all the markers off their floors and put new one's on. In any case, I can't see it achieving anything for the economy.

I think that many people around where I live have given up on the restrictions and are just carrying on as normal. Hopefully, the summer will help to dampen down the virus spread but if we are still recording 2000 plus new cases a day as we go into winter, like you say, we could be in for a very bad year end.

[tiger76]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Spain. They went into lockdown a week before us, and like you say it was far more severe than ours

However, they came out of lockdown before us, and on the first day barbers and hairdressers were open. Bars, restaurants, cafes etc were allowed to open outside, subject to distancing rules. This week, the areas that have moved to phase 2 the bars and restaurants can open inside, up to 40% capacity. These areas will be the last to open in the UK, completely opposite.

Holiday islands are hoping to move to phase 3 in the next few weeks, which basically means everything will be open, with reduced capacity, at which time we still won't be able to get a haircut, or visit the pub. It will be interesting to see how both countries do.

Yes every country has had their own methods at dealing with this virus, some have had strict lockdowns, others haven't locked down at all, the UK approach seems to be somewhere in between, it could be there isn't a one size fits all answer, and demographics and population density will play a part.

The risk with opening up the tourists resorts is imported infections, i assume Spain will have some form of quarantine in place for any visitor who tests positive, otherwise there could easily be outbreaks in hotels etc, as we witnessed in Tenerife a couple of months ago.

Interestingly Spanish schools won't reopen until September again a different path to the UK.

[UnderSeige]

if youre saying that after 10 weeks of lockdown theres still nearly 3 million cases active, then we should surely bin lockdown asap as its clearly inneffective and not worth the economic carnage it creates

No. I am not saying that. The daily update (multiplied x10) shows that there are nearly 3 million cases to date. The government are not currently publishing the 'Active Rate' (unlike most other countries).

Most of the 3m will now have either recovered or died. A number of those who have recovered will have permanent health problems relating to lungs, kidney, liver etc. The figure for this is not yet known but will become apparent in the next few years.

In hindsight I don't think that we should have ever gone into lockdown. The problem was that the government did not have a viable 'containment strategy' and so were forced into it. They still don't. Until we get a viable 'containment strategy' (or a vaccine) we are likely to have to go into lockdown again...and again...and again...and again.

[tiger76]

No. I am not saying that. The daily update (multiplied x10) shows that there are nearly 3 million cases to date. The government are not currently publishing the 'Active Rate' (unlike most other countries).

Most of the 3m will now have either recovered or died. A number of those who have recovered will have permanent health problems relating to lungs, kidney, liver etc. The figure for this is not yet known but will become apparent in the next few years.

In hindsight I don't think that we should have ever gone into lockdown. The problem was that the government did not have a viable 'containment strategy' and so were forced into it. They still don't. Until we get a viable 'containment strategy' (or a vaccine) we are likely to have to go into lockdown again...and again...and again...and again.

The British will soon get fed up of lockdown coming and going every few weeks, i thought the track & trace strategy was supposed to be the solution to easing lockdown, but it's fair to say it''s having a number of teething problems. The reality is we can't keep in lockdown forever,and if we're waiting for a vaccine then we'll be talking at least a year and that's being optimistic, so we have to come up with some form of best option until that time, otherwise the economy will be completely wrecked, and that'll impact even more in the long-term than covid.

[UnderSeige]

I think they're banking on herd immunity (as they have been all along with the sham lockdown). There may well be millions of active unknown cases, but if the population has been affected as much as I suspect, the number of people it could infect is drastically lower because there are also millions who will have had it already.

I wonder if your right? 'Stealth Herd Immunity'. When they openly tried it in March the French President was going to close the borders to the UK. Many other countries were threatening to completely cut off ties with us and treat us as a 'quarantine zone'. The NHS looked like it was going to be overwhelmed. We were then forced into lockdown.

By my reckoning, there have been about 5.5 million cases (total casesx20). That amounts to 8.2% of the UK population.
Herd immunity will likely be somewhere between 70%-80% of the population. This means that to get to it (without a vaccine or 'viable containment plan') we will have to go through the last three months another eight times.

If an 'herd immunity strategy' was allowed to go unhindered around another 46m people would need to contract the virus out of a population of 67,886,011 to achieve the final outcome. I wonder what the country would be like at the end of that?

Lets hope for an early vaccine or that the virus transmutes and fizzles out. I think that is what the government will currently be doing.

[paulatky]

No. I am not saying that. The daily update (multiplied x10) shows that there are nearly 3 million cases to date. The government are not currently publishing the 'Active Rate' (unlike most other countries).

Most of the 3m will now have either recovered or died. A number of those who have recovered will have permanent health problems relating to lungs, kidney, liver etc. The figure for this is not yet known but will become apparent in the next few years.

In hindsight I don't think that we should have ever gone into lockdown. The problem was that the government did not have a viable 'containment strategy' and so were forced into it. They still don't. Until we get a viable 'containment strategy' (or a vaccine) we are likely to have to go into lockdown again...and again...and again...and again.

Without a proper track and case system what would your alternate have been to lockdown