Covid-19

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Mala591
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Mala591 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:21 am

I think we are now in the (inevitable) herd immunity phase of the pandemic. Life must go on and the government must be responsible for MINIMISING the spread of infection whilst at the same time allowing reasonable economic activity.

Some specific local lockdowns might be necessary but another national lockdown is imo unlikely.

New world order will be: less human reproduction, less consumption, less pollution, less international travel (fewer holidays) and possibly the most important of all - there won't be enough 'work' to go round so the work MUST be shared out.

BIG changes ahead for everyone if the human race is to survive and prosper in an economically fairer and ecologically balanced society.

UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:21 am

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:15 am
The British will soon get fed up of lockdown coming and going every few weeks, i thought the track & trace strategy was supposed to be the solution to easing lockdown, but it's fair to say it''s having a number of teething problems. The reality is we can't keep in lockdown forever,and if we're waiting for a vaccine then we'll be talking at least a year and that's being optimistic, so we have to come up with some form of best option until that time, otherwise the economy will be completely wrecked, and that'll impact even more in the long-term than covid.
Yes we need an 'effective containment strategy' like they have in a number of other countries. We can then come out of lockdown and stay out of lockdown.

I am confident of a vaccine (perhaps by year end or early next year). But we can't rely on it. It could take longer. The government needs leaders and smart scientists who can get an 'effective containment strategy' up and running. We appear to have Managers and 'yes men' at the moment.

paulatky
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:29 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:21 am
Yes we need an 'effective containment strategy' like they have in a number of other countries. We can then come out of lockdown and stay out of lockdown.

I am confident of a vaccine (perhaps by year end or early next year). But we can't rely on it. It could take longer. The government needs leaders and smart scientists who can get an 'effective containment strategy' up and running. We appear to have Managers and 'yes men' at the moment.
Below is what I posted early on Saturday which may give hope to herd immunity with only 20% of the population having caught covid-19.

I havent posted here in a while as it has continued to be a political thread with much petty bickering and the usual suspects posting a lot but not really saying anything.

I have as always attempted to post my opinions based on logic and what I genuinely believe.

I saw a league table of the estimated R rate this morning by area.

Within the UK the lowest place was now London with an estimated R of 0.4.

At 1st glance I found that hard to believe as at its peak London had the most deaths per capita.
It is estimated that between 15-20% of Londoners have had the virus but that still leaves 7.5m to go at.

The 15-20% infected is also quoted for New York City, Sweden, and Lombardy region of Italy and the R rate has also dropped there despite the easing of lockdown.

It appears to me that once the infected reaches 20% the virus hits a brick wall in its ability to spread,

Herd immunity had always thought to be at least 60.% of the population with antibodies for that strategy to be effective.

I am just wondering if by getting colds over the years roughly half the population has built up antibodies to covid-19 which dont show up on any tests.

Just an idea to explain why London is doing so well despite the tube overcrowding and crowds not social distancing in parks etc.

Could be very good news and help us get back to near normal quicker than expected.

Sorry that this comes across as positive

NottsClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:35 am

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN2370OP

This from Italy, just one doctor at the moment so might well be nonsense. Maybe partially explains how death rates continued to drop as lockdown was eased around Europe.
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UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:35 am

Mala591 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:21 am
I think we are now in the (inevitable) herd immunity phase of the pandemic. Life must go on and the government must be responsible for MINIMISING the spread of infection whilst at the same time allowing reasonable economic activity.

Some specific local lockdowns might be necessary but another national lockdown is imo unlikely.

New world order will be: less human reproduction, less consumption, less pollution, less international travel (fewer holidays) and possibly the most important of all - there won't be enough 'work' to go round so the work MUST be shared out.

BIG changes ahead for everyone if the human race is to survive and prosper in an economically fairer and ecologically balanced society.
If we minimise the spread of the infection we will not achieve herd immunity very quickly.

To achieve Herd Immunity we need another 46m people to contract the virus. Assuming an 'Infection fatalality rate' of 1.4% this would result in another 644,000 deaths. Critical cases would also amount to a high figure.

Not for me thanks.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:42 am

paulatky wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:29 am
Below is what I posted early on Saturday which may give hope to herd immunity with only 20% of the population having caught covid-19.

I havent posted here in a while as it has continued to be a political thread with much petty bickering and the usual suspects posting a lot but not really saying anything.

I have as always attempted to post my opinions based on logic and what I genuinely believe.

I saw a league table of the estimated R rate this morning by area.

Within the UK the lowest place was now London with an estimated R of 0.4.

At 1st glance I found that hard to believe as at its peak London had the most deaths per capita.
It is estimated that between 15-20% of Londoners have had the virus but that still leaves 7.5m to go at.

The 15-20% infected is also quoted for New York City, Sweden, and Lombardy region of Italy and the R rate has also dropped there despite the easing of lockdown.

It appears to me that once the infected reaches 20% the virus hits a brick wall in its ability to spread,

Herd immunity had always thought to be at least 60.% of the population with antibodies for that strategy to be effective.

I am just wondering if by getting colds over the years roughly half the population has built up antibodies to covid-19 which dont show up on any tests.

Just an idea to explain why London is doing so well despite the tube overcrowding and crowds not social distancing in parks etc.

Could be very good news and help us get back to near normal quicker than expected.

Sorry that this comes across as positive
It would be great to think that there is some kind of other immunity. Perhaps macrophage or cytokins doing the job.

Perhaps the London numbers are so low for two reasons:
  • We have been in lockdown for a few months
  • Summer is helping
Please don't apologise for being positive.

My positive is to get an 'effective containment strategy'; come out of lockdown and stay out of lockdown. At some stage a vaccine is highly likely and game over.

Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:57 am

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:53 am
Yes every country has had their own methods at dealing with this virus, some have had strict lockdowns, others haven't locked down at all, the UK approach seems to be somewhere in between, it could be there isn't a one size fits all answer, and demographics and population density will play a part.

The risk with opening up the tourists resorts is imported infections, i assume Spain will have some form of quarantine in place for any visitor who tests positive, otherwise there could easily be outbreaks in hotels etc, as we witnessed in Tenerife a couple of months ago.

Interestingly Spanish schools won't reopen until September again a different path to the UK.
Spanish schools close early June normally so wouldn't have been worth it.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:02 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:57 am
Spanish schools close early June normally so wouldn't have been worth it.
Makes sense that's one of the main reasons schools in Scotland haven't bothered returning, they'd only be back for a maximum of 2 weeks, so yes on balance it's not worth it.

Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:14 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:02 pm
Makes sense that's one of the main reasons schools in Scotland haven't bothered returning, they'd only be back for a maximum of 2 weeks, so yes on balance it's not worth it.
I haven't checked yet, but will try a call later, but a lot of the Spanish schools run what they call summer schools, where parents can send the kids when they want, because three months is a long time to find someone to look after them
Tenerife did really well with the outbreak at the hotel, only people who'd been in the same party became infected. When you walked past the hotel it was cordened off, but everything outside of 100yds was open, and nobody caught anything.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:14 pm

NottsClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:35 am
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN2370OP

This from Italy, just one doctor at the moment so might well be nonsense. Maybe partially explains how death rates continued to drop as lockdown was eased around Europe.
This is brilliant news if it pans out to be correct. It could be that the virus is transmuting to something less virulent or it could be the warmer weather with more daylight that is reducing it's potency.

It would be good to see a study that compares the virus between a cold winter climate and a hot summer climate.

bfcjg
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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:59 pm

More good news, science/medical proffesionals are finding more ways to treat it.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-hospitals- ... 33908.html
More info on vaccines. Looks like next stage trials may have to be abroad as cases in Europe and America dwindle .
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/scientists-hu ... 04613.html

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:50 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:59 pm
More good news, science/medical proffesionals are finding more ways to treat it.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-hospitals- ... 33908.html
More info on vaccines. Looks like next stage trials may have to be abroad as cases in Europe and America dwindle .
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/scientists-hu ... 04613.html
A quick summary of vaccines from the top of my head
  • Oxford/Astrazenica Vaccine: Second stage trials on humans. Didn't stop monkeys from becoming ill but the monkeys with the vaccine became less ill than the monkeys without the vaccine. Due to be available in 4th quarter 2020 30 million doses.
  • Imperial College London: Due sometime next year
  • Moderna US Biotech Company: In second stage of Trials. Has shown success in early trialing. Due to be produced in millions by end of 2020 and tens of millions next year.
  • Johnson and Johnson. Highly confident of a vaccine in production by spring next year.
  • Sanofi/GSK Possible vaccine available at the end of 2021
  • Sinovac Chinese company developing a traditional type virus
  • "Inovio’s May 20 DNA vaccine candidate results looked highly promising"
  • "China’s CanSino adenovirus vaccine currently leads the pack"
  • Over 100 different projects worldwide
https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/ ... andidates/
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/ ... ne-tracker
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detai ... e-vaccines
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bfcjg
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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:07 pm

I think the Oxford results were skewed as the amount of virus given to the monkeys that became slightly infected had a dose of Corvid that would be impossible for a human to get coupled up with a low dose of the vaccine.
The key is to get the dose right so the virus doesnt build up immunity.

Devils_Advocate
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:46 pm

Independent Sage on subject of schools

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1267 ... 44096.html

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:56 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:46 pm
Independent Sage on subject of schools

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1267 ... 44096.html
That's backed up by this Doctor, it's funny, but when did we stop following the science.

The five tests 'haven't been met'
The president of the Association of Directors of Public Health England says she is "concerned" about more pupils going back to school in England because the five tests the government said were needed to ease restrictions "haven't yet been met".

"A lot of people, including local directors of public health across the country, are increasingly concerned that the government is misjudging this balancing act and lifting too many of the restrictions too quickly," Dr Jeanelle de Gruchy told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

She added that the R number - the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to - on average is between 0.7 and 0.9. While it is below 1, it leaves "very limited room for manoeuvre".

"We know how quickly this virus can spread. It is difficult to predict then, with quite a lot of the measures being relaxed all at once, what impact that will have on the R value," de Gruchy said.

This government seem prepared to take risks, i'm sorry but when it comes to public health matters, that's a scary attitude.

Hopefully they and we will get away with it.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:58 pm

A happier tale to relate :)

100-year-old woman recovers from virus

A 100-year-old woman in Indonesia has recovered from Covid-19, making her the country's oldest survivor, local media report.

Kamtim, who goes by her first name, was discharged from hospital this week after being treated for a month in the country's second largest city, Surabaya.

"I hope her recovery can motivate elderly people during the pandemic," East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa said.

The woman's daughter-in-law told AFP news agency that her recovery was due to her "discipline and persistence".

"Every day I checked her condition with nurses and they always told me that she was very strong and diligent about taking her medicine," Siti Aminah said.

"She was very motivated to get better."

Indonesia has more than 26,000 confirmed cases and 1,613 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:00 pm

Australia has only 21 cases in hospital

... and 92% of the country's recorded 7,200 cases have recovered.

With the health situation largely contained, today marks another significant relaxing of restrictions across the country.

Rules vary across states, but in New South Wales (the most populous state, which includes Sydney), the venues reopening include beauty salons, museums, libraries and public pools.

Leisure travel across the state is allowed, while pubs and restaurants can also have 50 patrons on site - as long as social distancing is maintained.

Twenty-person gatherings are also now allowed in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia - while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will allow even bigger groups later this week.

martin_p
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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:09 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:24 am
It will be interesting to see what happens in Spain. They went into lockdown a week before us, and like you say it was far more severe than ours

However, they came out of lockdown before us, and on the first day barbers and hairdressers were open. Bars, restaurants, cafes etc were allowed to open outside, subject to distancing rules. This week, the areas that have moved to phase 2 the bars and restaurants can open inside, up to 40% capacity. These areas will be the last to open in the UK, completely opposite.

Holiday islands are hoping to move to phase 3 in the next few weeks, which basically means everything will be open, with reduced capacity, at which time we still won't be able to get a haircut, or visit the pub. It will be interesting to see how both countries do.
Spain came out of lockdown a lot later than us in terms of the infection curve. We seem to have been about two weeks behind other European countries going up the curve but are now significantly further behind coming down it.

Blackrod
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Blackrod » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:38 pm

At least people have been able to arrive at IKEA at 5.40 am for 9 am opening and others have been able to wait in a 1,000 person queue. What the hell is wrong with them ? How can anyone be that desperate for a bit of cheap furniture ?
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martin_p
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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:41 pm

Blackrod wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:38 pm
At least people have been able to arrive at IKEA at 5.40 am for 9 am opening and others have been able to wait in a 1,000 person queue. What the hell is wrong with them ? How can anyone be that desperate for a bit of cheap furniture ?
That you can buy online anyway. Unfathomable!
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tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:43 pm

martin_p wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:09 pm
Spain came out of lockdown a lot later than us in terms of the infection curve. We seem to have been about two weeks behind other European countries going up the curve but are now significantly further behind coming down it.
Yes this is precisely why many are concerned we've jumped too soon,the new infections aren't really dropping outside London.

As this Telegraph stat from today clearly illustrates.

Coronavirus infection rates in England's northern regions are now nearly double that in London according to a new estimate.

The figures, from King's College London, suggest the daily rate of infection is sitting at around 11,000 across the UK, significantly higher than the 1,936 cases confirmed by Public Health England yesterday.

There is substantial regional variation within the UK according to the figures, which are drawn from the COVID Symptom Study, an app to track coronavirus symptoms that has been downloaded by 3.7 million people.

The mid-point of their current estimates for London is for 124 infections per million people, while in the North West the figure is 215 per million and in the North East and Yorkshire it is 225 per million....

The rest is sign in so i can't give you anymore, but you'll get the drift.

This 11,000 estimate is nearly 50% higher than previously thought, and it's far too high too consider easing lockdown yet, but the government knows better than the experts, who needs experts when you've got Michael Gove on hand.

Why we're taking so long to bring the curve down is a good question, you'd have thought after 9/10 weeks of lockdown we'd be getting a handle on this virus by now. It's worrying that we're not suppressing it enough, and the threat of a 2nd wave is all the greater unless we bring these numbers down drastically.
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UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:00 pm

It would be interesting to see the regional Ro rates. The government are supposed to be implementing regional lockdowns when the Ro rate for a region is greater than 1.
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Vino blanco
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Vino blanco » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:13 pm

No covid deaths in Spain yesterday and only a handful of new cases. I've just had a wander round parts of Benalmadena and it's great to see people sat on terrace bars enjoying a refreshing drink and a meal. Regarding the idea that covid is losing its potency, didn't the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 more or less fizzle out eventually after killing about 20 million world wide?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:25 pm

So in today's breifing we learned the Joint Biosecurity Centre – the body tasked with assessing the Covid-19 alert level – is not yet up and running.
We let the vulnerable out tomorrow, that's level one alert stuff. But the body in charge of assessing what level we're level doesn't exist.

Am I in hell and it turns out to be one long episode of The Thick Of It?
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Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:45 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:43 pm

There is substantial regional variation within the UK according to the figures, which are drawn from the COVID Symptom Study, an app to track coronavirus symptoms that has been downloaded by 3.7 million people.

The mid-point of their current estimates for London is for 124 infections per million people, while in the North West the figure is 215 per million and in the North East and Yorkshire it is 225 per million....
Is this an example of the north-south divide? And, maybe this is a serious point, why would we expect covid-19 infection rates be the same in all regions in England?

How are infection rates in Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark? These 3 countries border each other, how do their infection rates compare?

How does the covid symptom study verify the data recorded? I'd assume some cross-check to other UK data, maybe stats on (a) confirmed positive tests; (b) confirmed negative tests; (c) symptoms reported, but not tested. Maybe also days that symptoms persist. How do asymptomatic figure in this study, if at all?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:50 pm

•A bit of light relief make of it as you will.
Surely Boris wouldnt humiliate us like that would he ?


A delight for crossword fiends and conspiracy theorists on subliminal messaging: “Stay alert, control the virus, save lives” is an anagram of “Easily survives travel north to castle”.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jrgbfc » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:59 pm

Blackrod wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:38 pm
At least people have been able to arrive at IKEA at 5.40 am for 9 am opening and others have been able to wait in a 1,000 person queue. What the hell is wrong with them ? How can anyone be that desperate for a bit of cheap furniture ?
Just wait until all the McDonalds open.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:04 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:29 am
Below is what I posted early on Saturday which may give hope to herd immunity with only 20% of the population having caught covid-19.

I havent posted here in a while as it has continued to be a political thread with much petty bickering and the usual suspects posting a lot but not really saying anything.

I have as always attempted to post my opinions based on logic and what I genuinely believe.

I saw a league table of the estimated R rate this morning by area.

Within the UK the lowest place was now London with an estimated R of 0.4.

At 1st glance I found that hard to believe as at its peak London had the most deaths per capita.
It is estimated that between 15-20% of Londoners have had the virus but that still leaves 7.5m to go at.

The 15-20% infected is also quoted for New York City, Sweden, and Lombardy region of Italy and the R rate has also dropped there despite the easing of lockdown.

It appears to me that once the infected reaches 20% the virus hits a brick wall in its ability to spread,

Herd immunity had always thought to be at least 60.% of the population with antibodies for that strategy to be effective.

I am just wondering if by getting colds over the years roughly half the population has built up antibodies to covid-19 which dont show up on any tests.

Just an idea to explain why London is doing so well despite the tube overcrowding and crowds not social distancing in parks etc.

Could be very good news and help us get back to near normal quicker than expected.

Sorry that this comes across as positive
Hi paulatky, (did I respond to this post first time you posted)? The way I understand herd immunity is that the population is protected and therefor an infection can't spread if a significant number are unable to catch the infection, either because they've been vaccinated against that infection or they've experienced the infection and have built up their own immunity to re-infection. Of course, we all know that, whether it is polio, mumps and measles, chicken pox etc or it's influenza. I've listed these different infections to illustrate that there are different infections and some require a one-time vaccine (or infection and recovery) or annual vaccination. We are used to the experience that influenza strain changes from year to year - and, if the vaccine doesn't protect against the new strain, it isn't as effective and flu deaths are higher that winter. I think winter 2017/18 is an example.

With all of those infections, we haven't had a period of lockdown and we haven't had a prolonged and far reaching public health campaign of washing hands, keeping distance, self-isolating, face coverings etc. (There were some events cancelled with polio in early 1960s).

I'd suggest that "herd immunity" requires a high percentage of the population that can't become infected and, therefore, can't spread the virus without all the lockdown measures. However, if lockdown is implemented, the percentage of the population that needs to be protected by antibodies is lower, because the transmissions chain is broken by self-isolation, frequent and thorough handwashing etc.

So, that's maybe how we can reconcile the London R 0.4 at <20% infection.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:24 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:07 pm
I think the Oxford results were skewed as the amount of virus given to the monkeys that became slightly infected had a dose of Corvid that would be impossible for a human to get coupled up with a low dose of the vaccine.
The key is to get the dose right so the virus doesnt build up immunity.
That would explain why human trialling is continuing and the project is still on course. I was a bit puzzled about that.

I also read that Moderna's vaccine produced more antibodies than someone who had recovered from the disease. They are now diluting it down so that they can produce more doses at an early stage.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:28 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:00 pm
Australia has only 21 cases in hospital

... and 92% of the country's recorded 7,200 cases have recovered.

With the health situation largely contained, today marks another significant relaxing of restrictions across the country.

Rules vary across states, but in New South Wales (the most populous state, which includes Sydney), the venues reopening include beauty salons, museums, libraries and public pools.

Leisure travel across the state is allowed, while pubs and restaurants can also have 50 patrons on site - as long as social distancing is maintained.

Twenty-person gatherings are also now allowed in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia - while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will allow even bigger groups later this week.
That's what happens when a country gets it's containment strategy right. I am sure that Australia, New Zealand, Korea etc. would be delighted to help our government and experts to get it right.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:51 pm

Vino blanco wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:13 pm
No covid deaths in Spain yesterday and only a handful of new cases. I've just had a wander round parts of Benalmadena and it's great to see people sat on terrace bars enjoying a refreshing drink and a meal. Regarding the idea that covid is losing its potency, didn't the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 more or less fizzle out eventually after killing about 20 million world wide?
Looks like it was 'Herd Immunity'.
"The pandemic ended by the summer of 1919, as those that had been infected around the world had either died or developed immunity, reports History.com". https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7310340/ ... eath-toll/

"By the summer of 1919, when the flu pandemic subsided, 228,000 people had died in Britain. Letters to newspapers condemned the government’s slowness ... the authorities’ “timidity” to act, and “armchair complacency...

Fifteen years earlier, the priorities of war, determination to play down the seriousness of the illness, and limited medical knowledge resulted in a state of inertia, and allowed Punch to quip that those citizens who “insisted on having influenza”, did so “at their own risk”. https://www.historyextra.com/period/fi ... -pandemic/

Confirmed cases 500 million (estimate)
Deaths 17–50+ million (estimate)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:35 am
If we minimise the spread of the infection we will not achieve herd immunity very quickly.

To achieve Herd Immunity we need another 46m people to contract the virus. Assuming an 'Infection fatalality rate' of 1.4% this would result in another 644,000 deaths. Critical cases would also amount to a high figure.

Not for me thanks.
Just a question on where you got your infection fatality rate from of 1.4%? Reason I ask is I am not saying it's wrong but in following CDC they are showing:

For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

If you include a bunch of asymptomatic case "cases" the stats do look a lot better. Still what is 0.26% of the USA, or the world? It is extremely contagious, and spread by the asymptomatic, so most will will eventually get it (even though they may feel nothing).
328,200,000 (0.0026) = 853,320 dead Therefore the conclusion is that even the 0.26% rate is actually way above what is expected to be the final determining number when working backwards from actual deaths.

Initially, the “experts” used the fear of asymptomatic transmission as a means of pushing for universal lockdown. But that only makes sense if the number of asymptomatic are a minority and we are at the beginning of the transmission phase, in which such lockdown could work. Now we see the opposite is true. The overwhelming majority of those infected are asymptomatic, which grows to an absolute super-majority when you factor in the mildly symptomatic. The fatality rate is therefore very small and very confined to a known population. Thus, it makes no sense to lock down younger and healthier people who overwhelmingly don’t get seriously ill, much less deathly ill, even if they contract the virus. Moreover, the fact that this has spread so far and wide and most are asymptomatic demonstrates that there is no longer any “spread” to stop and we were months too late in trying to stop it even if we wanted to. Clearly, this tweet from the World Health Organization did not age well.

Asymptomatic #2019nCoV infection may be rare, and transmission from an asymptomatic person is very rare with other coronaviruses, as we have seen with MERS. Thus, transmission from asymptomatic cases is likely not a major driver of transmission https://t.co/5gEHSOGO7H pic.twitter.com/Zh8ifwP4XA
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) February 1, 2020

By going back to normal with basic precautions for most of the population, we will be able to achieve herd immunity much less painfully than previously thought while shielding the more vulnerable population. The threshold of 70% contracting a virus in order to achieve herd immunity is only true for diseases like measles and mumps, which affect the population more or less evenly. But the target of this virus is very lopsided and heterogeneous. According to a recent simulation by European, American, and Brazilian researchers, “Heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity thresholds than homogeneous models would suggest,” possibly as low as 10%. The fact that so many of the more exposed and vulnerable already got it and so many were asymptomatic means we could achieve herd immunity much quicker with fewer lives lost, certainly compared to lockdown.

CONCLUSION
for me alone I am confused when I look at the excess death across many countries it's a very scary thought and there is no doubt many have died due to this virus whether directly or as a contributing factor when comparing with previous years regardless of which country you want to chose. Yet if I look at the % chance of dying when reviewing the number of deaths per country if you use the UK or USA attributed to C-19 to date and predicting forward, it points to a low percentage of chance from dying from this virus.

I/we have been very careful and cautions and even through lockdown releases we have still staying been away from crowds and ensuring social distancing but you can also see why some people might go the way they have in reviewing the data, which I am not condoning in any way shape or form. One death from this is one to many when applied to your family/friends etc. yet we are fully conditioned to people dying from other causes without resorting to lockdown and driving the economy and families to loss of jobs/income etc.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:10 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:04 pm
Hi paulatky, (did I respond to this post first time you posted)? The way I understand herd immunity is that the population is protected and therefor an infection can't spread if a significant number are unable to catch the infection, either because they've been vaccinated against that infection or they've experienced the infection and have built up their own immunity to re-infection. Of course, we all know that, whether it is polio, mumps and measles, chicken pox etc or it's influenza. I've listed these different infections to illustrate that there are different infections and some require a one-time vaccine (or infection and recovery) or annual vaccination. We are used to the experience that influenza strain changes from year to year - and, if the vaccine doesn't protect against the new strain, it isn't as effective and flu deaths are higher that winter. I think winter 2017/18 is an example.

With all of those infections, we haven't had a period of lockdown and we haven't had a prolonged and far reaching public health campaign of washing hands, keeping distance, self-isolating, face coverings etc. (There were some events cancelled with polio in early 1960s).

I'd suggest that "herd immunity" requires a high percentage of the population that can't become infected and, therefore, can't spread the virus without all the lockdown measures. However, if lockdown is implemented, the percentage of the population that needs to be protected by antibodies is lower, because the transmissions chain is broken by self-isolation, frequent and thorough handwashing etc.

So, that's maybe how we can reconcile the London R 0.4 at <20% infection.
Percentage of population to be immune in order to achieve Herd Immunity
There is no way of telling what the percentage requirement for COVID-19 is yet. Estimates are only guesswork.

Examples from other diseases

Measles .....92-95%
Pertussis.... 92-94%
Diphtheria.. 83-86%
Rubella......83-86%
Smallpox....80-86%
Polio.........80-86%
SARS.........50-80% (a less virulent coronavirus)
Ebola........33-60%
Influenza...33-44%

COVID-19 estimate 29-74%
"It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we were sure of – the reproductive rate, the symptoms of the infection, the key to making a good quarantine – are suspect and need to be re-evaluated...

But among all this uncertainty, I can say for sure that there is one thing that I would never have seen coming: the discussion about herd immunity. It is so out of the blue that the first time a journalist asked my opinion on whether it was effective for the coronavirus, I literally laughed out loud because I assumed they were joking".
GIDEON MEYEROWITZ-KATZ https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-i ... 9-pandemic
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:26 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:28 pm
That's what happens when a country gets it's containment strategy right. I am sure that Australia, New Zealand, Korea etc. would be delighted to help our government and experts to get it right.
I'm sure they would if we asked them, but have we taken notice of any other actions and evidence from other countries, or we too proud to heed advice.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:26 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:10 pm
Percentage of population to be immune in order to achieve Herd Immunity
There is no way of telling what the percentage requirement for COVID-19 is yet. Estimates are only guesswork.

Examples from other diseases

Measles .....92-95%
Pertussis.... 92-94%
Diphtheria.. 83-86%
Rubella......83-86%
Smallpox....80-86%
Polio.........80-86%
SARS.........50-80% (a less virulent coronavirus)
Ebola........33-60%
Influenza...33-44%

COVID-19 estimate 29-74%
Thanks, great post, US. Lot's of good information in that article.

Where do you get the percentages for the other diseases from? The article quotes mumps, which isn't included in your examples.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:33 pm


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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:39 pm

Vino blanco wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:13 pm
No covid deaths in Spain yesterday and only a handful of new cases. I've just had a wander round parts of Benalmadena and it's great to see people sat on terrace bars enjoying a refreshing drink and a meal. Regarding the idea that covid is losing its potency, didn't the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 more or less fizzle out eventually after killing about 20 million world wide?
I don't know a huge amount about the Spanish flu, but i am aware that the 2nd wave was much more deadly than the 1st, let's hope that's not the case on this occasion.

Spain has recorded no coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours for the first time since the beginning of March, the country's health ministry said.

Spain has recorded at least one new death every day since 3 March but on Monday the overall death toll remained at 27,127.

The daily tally of new cases has also fallen, with 71 recorded on Monday compared to 96 on Sunday.

Spain has been one of the countries worst hit by the virus but has been easing restrictions in recent weeks.

Regarding the view that CV is burning itself out naturally, the WHO certainly aren't taking that stance.

WHO rejects claim that coronavirus has weakened

The World Health Organization (WHO) has rejected claims that the coronavirus is losing its potency.

On Sunday, a senior doctor in Italy said there were signs the virus had become less lethal. Prof Alberto Zangrillo, head of an intensive care unit at San Raffaele Hospital in Lombardy, said coronavirus “clinically no longer exists”.

But a range of scientists including WHO experts say there is no evidence to support this idea.

“In terms of transmissibility, that has not changed. In terms of severity, that has not changed,” said WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:48 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:26 pm
Thanks, great post, US. Lot's of good information in that article.

Where do you get the percentages for the other diseases from? The article quotes mumps, which isn't included in your examples.
Saves me asking...

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:50 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:33 pm
Let's hope this trend continues.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-d ... 35741.html
If we're being optimistic

Lowest number of new cases in UK since 23 March 1,570

lowest daily fatality figure for more than two months 111

Now if those numbers remain stable or even decline then we can grow more confident we're finally winning the battle.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Ptangyangkipperbang » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:55 pm

Sorry if this has already been posted on this thread I don't read it much and also I can't put a link up but it's a story I found interesting.On Febuary first of this year influential guitarist of post punk band Andy Gill passed away after two weeks in hospital with serious respiratory problems and cause of death was given as pneumonia and organ failure.The band had toured China in November.His widow is convinced he died of covid19

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:57 pm

KateR wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Just a question on where you got your infection fatality rate from of 1.4%?
"Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

If the rate is 0.26% the fatalities required for herd immunity would still be very high. I used this as a figure from which to estimate the requirements. The 46 million (which is slightly wrong - oops) is the UK population times 0.7. It is 47,523,000.
0.7 is herd immunity at 70%.

The figures I used were an educated guess. No one yet knows the real data concerning 'fatality rates', 'Herd immunity percent requirement' etc. The point I was making is that, in order to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread through the population unhindered, the requirement would be that tens of millions of people would need to contract the virus and hundreds of thousands of fatalities would result. Perhaps that's what I should have said.

I have just this hour made another post in which I was responding to a question about 'how did Spanish Flue End'.
The answer was that we achieved 'herd immunity'. The cost in lives was around 228,000 fatalities in the UK. This was at a time when the population was about 44 million (including Ireland). This is an historic example of the results of an 'herd immunity policy in a global pandemic for the UK. But the government of the day had little choice.

By the summer of 1919, when the flu pandemic subsided, 228,000 people had died in Britain.
https://www.historyextra.com/period/fir ... pandemic/

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:59 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:26 pm
Thanks, great post, US. Lot's of good information in that article.

Where do you get the percentages for the other diseases from? The article quotes mumps, which isn't included in your examples.
From the Wiki link.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:05 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:26 pm
Thanks, great post, US. Lot's of good information in that article.

Where do you get the percentages for the other diseases from? The article quotes mumps, which isn't included in your examples.
Here it is. I didn't add it to the post. You will need to scroll down a bit and the table is on the right hand of the page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:25 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:57 pm
"Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

If the rate is 0.26% the fatalities required for herd immunity would still be very high. I used this as a figure from which to estimate the requirements. The 46 million (which is slightly wrong - oops) is the UK population times 0.7. It is 47,523,000.
0.7 is herd immunity at 70%.

By the summer of 1919, when the flu pandemic subsided, 228,000 people had died in Britain.
https://www.historyextra.com/period/fir ... pandemic/
thank you
I agree an IFR of 0.26% is still high but the numbers are continuing to reduce that as I understand it and the big argument seems to be the high number of people who are not affected by the virus in terms of symptoms as noted. Plus is the herd immunity as high as 70%, as you quoted between and estimated say 30% to 70%, so if on the high side yes an issue.

I also note Germany had a leaked doc regarding the issue being no real issue but how real this is I don't know but there was the link earlier to the Italian doctor:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germa ... alse-alarm

But the main numbers are deaths for most of the world are dropping in a 7 day rolling forecast, which is the good news.

This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis published a preprint (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling.

Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times less deadly or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.

The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is 17 times less deadly than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed!

The study included data from 12 antibody tests conducted in different countries, from the U.S. and Brazil to China, Japan, Iran, and several European countries. They collectively show that the virus is exponentially more prevalent, often presenting asymptomatically, than the confirmed case tally indicates. Ioannidis further notes that most of these surveys likely understate the number of infections (and therefore overstate the fatality rate) because several of them were of blood plasma donors, who tend to be healthier people.

Also, the virus seems to be particularly widespread in nursing homes, in prisons, and among disadvantaged minorities, which Ioannidis believes were underrepresented in these samples. He noted, this was especially true in the Santa Clara study conducted by his Stanford colleagues, Nonetheless, he concludes:

Interestingly, despite their differences in design, execution, and analysis, most studies provide IFR point estimates that are within a relatively narrow range. Seven of the 12 inferred IFR's are in the range 0.07 to 0.20 (corrected IFR of 0.06 to 0.16) which are similar to IFR values of seasonal influenza. Three values are modestly higher (corrected IFR of 0.25-0.40 in Gangelt, Geneva, and Wuhan) and two are modestly lower than this range (corrected IFR of 0.02-0.03 in Kobe and Oise).

Ioannides observes that two of the three antibody studies with the higher range were in cities with super-spreading events in the lead-up to the infection peak, and Wuhan had a situation where hospitals were overrun. Obviously, New York’s experience was an outlier, so the antibody test conducted by the state (which indicates an IFR of at least 0.6% for New York City) was not included in his analysis. He chalks up the more severe outcome in places like New York City and northern Italy to an amalgamation of factors that fed on each other, including: hospitals reaching capacity, large numbers of medical providers becoming infected and spreading it in the hospitals, use of unnecessarily aggressive ventilation treatment, and in the case of NYC, in particular, “an extremely busy, congested public transport system that may have exposed large segments of the population to high infectious load in close contact transmission and, thus, perhaps more severe disease.” Of course, public transportation was the one thing that was not shut down, even as officials closed outdoor parks and beaches, where every single published study as shown nearly zero transmission.

However, whether we go with a top-line IFR of 0.2%, 0.6%, or even the 0.9% of the Imperial College projection, it fails to account for the most salient characteristic of this virus – that its threat is extremely lopsided. In most countries and states, more than half of all deaths are in nursing homes, and in some states, upwards of 70 percent are – with many of the decedents having already been placed in hospice or end-of-life care. Most of the deaths are tragically within a tiny cohort of the population with a 5%-10% IFR, which is 25-50 times higher than the median. (I am not convinced by this statement but have not checked)

The more I read, the more confused I get in terms of the real threat to myself at the present time as we all move out of the worst of the lockdown wherever you might be, but the threat is still there.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Mala591 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:28 pm

The 'problem' for countries who locked down early and have had low numbers of infections is that they will have no 'low level background herd immunity' and will be extremely susceptible to new infections from visitors to their country.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:57 pm

Mala591 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:28 pm
The 'problem' for countries who locked down early and have had low numbers of infections is that they will have no 'low level background herd immunity' and will be extremely susceptible to new infections from visitors to their country.
I tend to agree with this but still a lot of uncertainties. What I believe is certain is that the world will continue to watch Sweden as we go through winter and come out in spring, say April 2021 and see where all the measurements take us. If there are large second + waves some countries may elect to simply go the way of Sweden then and wish they had done it in the initial outbreak/phase. Of course we could have very good news and get a vaccine early but now I am basing thoughts on we will not get a vaccine used by millions per country before that time but certainly hope we do.

Sweden have done better than some and worse than others, particularly the Scandinavian countries in terms of deaths, the links show some data for measurement but you would expect them to come out of this economically much better than most for the future.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/ ... untry=~SWE

https://abcnews.go.com/International/sw ... d=70666450

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:35 am

Vino blanco wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:13 pm
No covid deaths in Spain yesterday and only a handful of new cases. I've just had a wander round parts of Benalmadena and it's great to see people sat on terrace bars enjoying a refreshing drink and a meal. Regarding the idea that covid is losing its potency, didn't the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 more or less fizzle out eventually after killing about 20 million world wide?
In 1918 the first wave of the virus didn’t kill a lot of people. That one fizzled out, but the second wave, after it has mutated somewhat, was what caused the majority of deaths. That appeared here in autumn of that year, and was deadly enough to kill young healthy people quickly. My Burnley grandfather described seeing people go to work in the morning, only to discover they died in the afternoon. Easing the lockdown now will increase the number of cases, and the longer the virus is with us, the greater the chance it’ll mutate into something worse.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Wile E Coyote » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:04 am


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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:15 am

Did anyone else notice that yesterday’s cumulative total jumped by an extra 445 jn addition to the 111 deaths declared yesterday.
The extra deaths represented 10-20 a day during May that had not been previously reported,and most occurred in care homes.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:17 am

paulatky wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:15 am
Did anyone else notice that yesterday’s cumulative total jumped by an extra 445 jn addition to the 111 deaths declared yesterday.
The extra deaths represented 10-20 a day during May that had not been previously reported,and most occurred in care homes.

Probably everyone who watched or read any form of the news

Locked