Covid-19

[tiger76]

Did anyone else notice that yesterday’s cumulative total jumped by an extra 445 jn addition to the 111 deaths declared yesterday.
The extra deaths represented 10-20 a day during May that had not been previously reported,and most occurred in care homes.

The official figures are about 10,000 under counted according to the ONS.https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-d ... 3391.html

Sadly this number is likely to increase in the coming weeks once all the info is collated.

[UnderSeige]

thank you
I agree an IFR of 0.26% is still high but the numbers are continuing to reduce that as I understand it and the big argument seems to be the high number of people who are not affected by the virus in terms of symptoms as noted. Plus is the herd immunity as high as 70%, as you quoted between and estimated say 30% to 70%, so if on the high side yes an issue.

I also note Germany had a leaked doc regarding the issue being no real issue but how real this is I don't know but there was the link earlier to the Italian doctor:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germa ... alse-alarm

But the main numbers are deaths for most of the world are dropping in a 7 day rolling forecast, which is the good news.

This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis published a preprint (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling.

Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times less deadly or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.

The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is 17 times less deadly than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed!

The study included data from 12 antibody tests conducted in different countries, from the U.S. and Brazil to China, Japan, Iran, and several European countries. They collectively show that the virus is exponentially more prevalent, often presenting asymptomatically, than the confirmed case tally indicates. Ioannidis further notes that most of these surveys likely understate the number of infections (and therefore overstate the fatality rate) because several of them were of blood plasma donors, who tend to be healthier people.

Also, the virus seems to be particularly widespread in nursing homes, in prisons, and among disadvantaged minorities, which Ioannidis believes were underrepresented in these samples. He noted, this was especially true in the Santa Clara study conducted by his Stanford colleagues, Nonetheless, he concludes:

Interestingly, despite their differences in design, execution, and analysis, most studies provide IFR point estimates that are within a relatively narrow range. Seven of the 12 inferred IFR's are in the range 0.07 to 0.20 (corrected IFR of 0.06 to 0.16) which are similar to IFR values of seasonal influenza. Three values are modestly higher (corrected IFR of 0.25-0.40 in Gangelt, Geneva, and Wuhan) and two are modestly lower than this range (corrected IFR of 0.02-0.03 in Kobe and Oise).

Ioannides observes that two of the three antibody studies with the higher range were in cities with super-spreading events in the lead-up to the infection peak, and Wuhan had a situation where hospitals were overrun. Obviously, New York’s experience was an outlier, so the antibody test conducted by the state (which indicates an IFR of at least 0.6% for New York City) was not included in his analysis. He chalks up the more severe outcome in places like New York City and northern Italy to an amalgamation of factors that fed on each other, including: hospitals reaching capacity, large numbers of medical providers becoming infected and spreading it in the hospitals, use of unnecessarily aggressive ventilation treatment, and in the case of NYC, in particular, “an extremely busy, congested public transport system that may have exposed large segments of the population to high infectious load in close contact transmission and, thus, perhaps more severe disease.” Of course, public transportation was the one thing that was not shut down, even as officials closed outdoor parks and beaches, where every single published study as shown nearly zero transmission.

However, whether we go with a top-line IFR of 0.2%, 0.6%, or even the 0.9% of the Imperial College projection, it fails to account for the most salient characteristic of this virus – that its threat is extremely lopsided. In most countries and states, more than half of all deaths are in nursing homes, and in some states, upwards of 70 percent are – with many of the decedents having already been placed in hospice or end-of-life care. Most of the deaths are tragically within a tiny cohort of the population with a 5%-10% IFR, which is 25-50 times higher than the median. (I am not convinced by this statement but have not checked)

The more I read, the more confused I get in terms of the real threat to myself at the present time as we all move out of the worst of the lockdown wherever you might be, but the threat is still there.

I think that posts are becoming essays at the moment but here goes.

Herd Immunity and Fatality Rates

• 0.2% 0.26% 0.6% 1.4% 0.16% 0.9% IFR This all suggests that we don't really know and perhaps will never know exactly. Findings will vary for country to country; region to region; Month to month; week to week. They may also reflect the bias of the researchers. Are they trying to prove a point or are they trying to get to the truth.

• Knowledge that is set in stone one day will become defunct the next day in a pandemic as new data and studies emerge.

• From yesterdays official figures.UK Fatality's 39,045 total confirmed cases 276,332..... 39,045/276,332 = 0.143 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

• Many cases will not end up in the official figures.

• Some people who died from coronavirus will not have it recorded on their death certificate.

• Some might have coronavirus recorded on their death certificate but have been on the verge of passing away due to other causes.

Is the herd immunity as high as 70%?

• Probably. Could be be lower or higher but can't say for certain.

• History would suggest so from the last global pandamic that swept through the UK. Lesson from herd immunity in the UK "By the summer of 1919, when the flu pandemic subsided, 228,000 people had died in Britain". https://www.historyextra.com/period/fir ... -pandemic/

• Measles .....92-95%
  Pertussis.... 92-94%
  Diphtheria.. 83-86%
  Rubella......83-86%
  Smallpox....80-86%
  Polio.........80-86%
  SARS.........50-80% (a less virulent coronavirus)
  Ebola........33-60%
  Influenza...33-44%
  
  COVID-19 estimate 29-74%https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Is It Safe to go Out?

• 'Disease not done yet': Matt Hancock warns national blanket lockdown could return as measures are lifted.

• "He said a "Joint Biosecurity Centre" would have a big role in helping to decide on local lockdowns, but admitted the body is not yet up and running". https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-01/mat ... onference/

• New cases yesterday were 1,570

• No effective containment plan up and running.

• "Hope for the best and prepare for the worst".

• Follow the government rules for social distancing. Wash your hands often etc.

• Wear a face covering in public places.

• Keep weight levels down and eat a well balanced diet.

• Ensure that you are not nutrient deficient. Especially in Vit D, C and Zinc.

• Only go out when necessary.

Does COVID-19 only affect the elderly

• No.

• The elderly have a much greater vulnerability to the disease but other age groups have been affected.

• In the UK, many elderly have contracted the disease due to hospitals offloading patients (with the disease) into care homes. The close physical contact and confined space of care homes caused the virus to spread through them.

• Young physically fit athletes such as Footballers, basketball players and Marathon runners have been knocked for six by the virus.

Will COVID-19 Fade out of its own accord (Italian Doctor posts from yesterday)?

• Lets hope so.

• There isn't enough evidence to know yet.

• It may do and the WHO shouldn't be dismissing the findings of the Italian doctor.

• We really need to see the virus dwindling in potency in several countries to know this.

You might want to follow DR Chris Martenson's twice weekly broadcasts. He tends to be a week or two ahead of the rest of the media and cuts through the noise. His latest video is entitled 'Garbage 'Science': Be Wary Of What You're Being Told'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUD_wvkNhnk

[tiger76]

This is encouraging news to an extent. Let's hope it continues to decline.

Coronavirus: Deaths at lowest level since March

The number of people dying each week linked to coronavirus has dropped to its lowest levels in England and Wales since March, figures show.

The Office for National Statistics review of death certificates showed 2,589 cases where the virus was mentioned in the week ending 22 May.

Overall there were nearly 12,300 deaths in that week - 2,300 more than normal at this time of the year.

At the peak of the pandemic double the number were dying than expected.

Overall, there have been 286,700 deaths this year - 51,400 above what would be expected.

Some 43,800 have been attributed to coronavirus.

Nick Stripe, of the ONS, said despite the number of overall deaths falling, we were effectively seeing the same number of deaths we would expect in winter.

He also said there were considerable regional variations with the north east currently seeing the highest rates of excess deaths.

[bfcjg]

I think the death rate will slow
I read an article somewhare that the virus cuts the average life span by 5 months as most are very ill with other life shortening conditions. Only time will tell.

[aggi]

I think the death rate will slow
I read an article somewhare that the virus cuts the average life span by 5 months as most are very ill with other life shortening conditions. Only time will tell.

The study I saw suggested that the average number of years of life lost was about 12 years.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

[dsr]

The study I saw suggested that the average number of years of life lost was about 12 years.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

That study implies that people who died of coronavirus had a life expectancy the same as the average. Either people with severe health conditions are no more vulnerable than the healthy to coronavirus, or else people with severe health conditions are more vulnerable but they would have lived as long as the healthy anyway. Neither seems likely.

The problem is in getting their conclusion to make sense. Especially when you bear in mind that a third or more of deaths are in nursing homes, where life expectancy isn't much above a year anyway; if those people are losing a year each, then the people dying away from nursing homes are losing 15 years. Bearing in mind the average age of death in hospitals is something like 79, to say that those people on average would have lived another 15 years seems counterintuitive.

[martin_p]

That study implies that people who died of coronavirus had a life expectancy the same as the average. Either people with severe health conditions are no more vulnerable than the healthy to coronavirus, or else people with severe health conditions are more vulnerable but they would have lived as long as the healthy anyway. Neither seems likely.

The problem is in getting their conclusion to make sense. Especially when you bear in mind that a third or more of deaths are in nursing homes, where life expectancy isn't much above a year anyway; if those people are losing a year each, then the people dying away from nursing homes are losing 15 years. Bearing in mind the average age of death in hospitals is something like 79, to say that those people on average would have lived another 15 years seems counterintuitive.

I’ve only read the first few paras, but it clearly takes into account the impact of LTCs (Long Term Conditions) on life expectancy.

[dsr]

I’ve only read the first few paras, but it clearly takes into account the impact of LTCs (Long Term Conditions) on life expectancy.

I know it does. And it concludes that it makes no difference.

The average age life lost, they say, is over 10 years per person. The average age of death, they don't say but it's true, of the government's official stats, is 79 for men, 81 for women. A lot of nursing home deaths are not on those stats and they would only increase the average.

How are we expected to believe that these people dying of coronavirus, the large majority of whom already have some serious illness, would have lived with their illnesses to an average age of over 90 if coronavirus hadn't struck?

[Spijed]

COVID-19 death rates ‘four times higher’ among those with diabetes and hyperglycemia

https://www.diabetes.co.uk/news/2020/ap ... cemia.html

[aggi]

That study implies that people who died of coronavirus had a life expectancy the same as the average. Either people with severe health conditions are no more vulnerable than the healthy to coronavirus, or else people with severe health conditions are more vulnerable but they would have lived as long as the healthy anyway. Neither seems likely.

The problem is in getting their conclusion to make sense. Especially when you bear in mind that a third or more of deaths are in nursing homes, where life expectancy isn't much above a year anyway; if those people are losing a year each, then the people dying away from nursing homes are losing 15 years. Bearing in mind the average age of death in hospitals is something like 79, to say that those people on average would have lived another 15 years seems counterintuitive.

It clearly takes them into account

Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19.

I see what you're saying but to dismiss what seems to be a fairly comprehensive study with "it doesn't look right" doesn't quite convince me.

I would guess that this study is from before the nursing home deaths were as high as they are now so it is probably over-estimating on that basis. However, there is a significant gap between this and the five months in the post I quoted.

[tiger76]

This Tory MP does have a valid point if people continue to disregard the advice then they can't complain if they are ill afterwards.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/george-floyd- ... 3491.html

But i'll guarantee they will.

[tiger76]

Just seen this

UK weekend briefings to stop

The government has announced there will no longer be televised briefings at weekends, starting this week.

However, the prime minister has committed to taking part in at least one briefing a week, Downing Street said.

There was no mention of changes to weekday briefings.

The first briefing was held on 16 March, and since then there has been one every day, including weekends and bank holidays.

Is this a sign that the worst is over for now?, TBF the briefings were becoming rather repetitive in nature.

[Devils_Advocate]

However, the prime minister has committed to taking part in at least one briefing a week, Downing Street said.

Is this allowed? I thought when you were furloughed you couldn't do any work at all?

[tiger76]

This stat caught my eye, makes you wonder how they can seemingly eradicate CV and yet the UK is still grappling with it.

Montenegro is due to declare its epidemic over. Provided no new infections are reported overnight, it will have gone 28 days without any new cases.

[tiger76]

More details on the fatalities, lots of stats, but i think it's informative.

There were 2,589 deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales registered in the week ending 22 May - the lowest weekly number recorded in the last seven weeks, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Some 12,288 deaths were registered in the nations during the same period - a drop of 2,285 from the previous week but still 2,348 more than the five-year average, the ONS said.

In total, the ONS said there have been 286,759 deaths to date in England and Wales this year - 51,466 more than the five-year average.

Of the deaths registered by 22 May, 43,837 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, which was 15.3% of all deaths.

Out of all deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered up to 22 May:

64% (28,159 deaths) occurred in hospital
29% (12,739) took place in care homes
5% (1,991) in private homes
1% (582) in hospices
0.4% (197) in other communal establishments
and 0.4% (169) elsewhere
This means the number of excess deaths across the UK since the coronavirus outbreak began now stands at 61,795 (see chart below).

Last week, the National Records of Scotland reported 4,618 excess deaths in Scotland between 23 March and 24 May, while the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency put the figure for Northern Ireland at 869 excess deaths between 21 March and 22 May.All figures are based on death registrations.

[martin_p]

I know it does. And it concludes that it makes no difference.

The average age life lost, they say, is over 10 years per person. The average age of death, they don't say but it's true, of the government's official stats, is 79 for men, 81 for women. A lot of nursing home deaths are not on those stats and they would only increase the average.

How are we expected to believe that these people dying of coronavirus, the large majority of whom already have some serious illness, would have lived with their illnesses to an average age of over 90 if coronavirus hadn't struck?

It doesn’t say that at all.

‘ On stratifying the YLL estimates by sex, age and multimorbidity count (for the simulated patients) there were clear differences (Figure 5, Table 2) with the YLL ranging from around 2-years per person in men or women aged 80 with large numbers of LTCs, to around 35 years in younger people without any LTCs (Table 2). For most age-bands and most multimorbidity counts the YLL per person remained above 5.’

[dsr]

It doesn’t say that at all.

‘ On stratifying the YLL estimates by sex, age and multimorbidity count (for the simulated patients) there were clear differences (Figure 5, Table 2) with the YLL ranging from around 2-years per person in men or women aged 80 with large numbers of LTCs, to around 35 years in younger people without any LTCs (Table 2). For most age-bands and most multimorbidity counts the YLL per person remained above 5.’

It doesn't say that, but if the average life expectancy of people who die with coronavirus is the same or similar to the average life expectancy of the survivors, the obvious conclusion is that it makes no difference.

You don't need to break down the average. If the average is similar, then obviously it will be made up of larger and smaller numbers; but the average is the same however they break it down. If average life expectancy is the same for the dead as for the survivors, then it will be similar across the board.

[tiger76]

Did anyone else notice that yesterday’s cumulative total jumped by an extra 445 jn addition to the 111 deaths declared yesterday.
The extra deaths represented 10-20 a day during May that had not been previously reported,and most occurred in care homes.

This is apparently the explanation.

Did yesterday's death figures add up?

Reality Check

At yesterday’s briefing, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced that there had been an increase in coronavirus deaths of 111 in the last 24 hours. The total number of people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19 stood at 39,045 – according to government figures.

But the previous day’s total was 38,489 – which was 556 lower (as Piers Morgan, among others, pointed out). So, where did the extra 445 deaths come from?

It turns out that until yesterday, the figure for the number of people who died after a positive test only included those whose test had been processed in an NHS or Public Health England laboratory.

On 1 June, the system was changed so that it also included tests processed by a commercial lab (since 24 May). That change meant a total of 445 extra people were counted as having died after testing positive, which was why the cumulative number rose by so much more than the daily figure.

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland still do not count people who have died after positive test results run through commercial labs.

So it could well mean that the devolved nations might see sudden jumps in their numbers, once these deaths are added there.

And this might go some to explaining the apparent gap between the official death statistics, and the numbers the likes of the ONS are counting.

[martin_p]

It doesn't say that, but if the average life expectancy of people who die with coronavirus is the same or similar to the average life expectancy of the survivors, the obvious conclusion is that it makes no difference.

You don't need to break down the average. If the average is similar, then obviously it will be made up of larger and smaller numbers; but the average is the same however they break it down. If average life expectancy is the same for the dead as for the survivors, then it will be similar across the board.

Well that’s what happens when you change 50,000 figures out of 70 million, especially when most of those dying have already surpassed the average life expectancy!

[Devils_Advocate]

I see Rees-Mogg has turned Parliament into a (dangerous) farce today because without a baying crowd at PMQs their incompetence is obvious for all to see

Its like they are trying to compete with Trump to be the laughing stock of the world

[bfcjg]

There are lies, damn lies and statistics would seem to sum up so many of these surveys.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson ... 57417.html
Someone's lieing. Remind who was sacked by a British newspaper for lieing?

[UnderSeige]

The study I saw suggested that the average number of years of life lost was about 12 years.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

How can they know that? The virus is only a few months old.

[aggi]

How can they know that? The virus is only a few months old.

They first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. They then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, they used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. They then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.

[Devils_Advocate]

Best prepared country for a pandemic to the laughing stock of Europe

[mdd2]

It is interesting how many ways there are to end up with a dead cat, or in the case of Sweden, a live cat. It certainly looks as if the idea of getting herd immunity became a non-starter and we went for lockdown and at great cost to mind body and pocket whilst Sweden has slightly fewer deaths 4500 in a 10million population and has not shut down the economy.Same virus, different populations, different geography different outcomes
On the issue of care homes, life expectancy in a NH used to average about 3 years and I would be very surprised if LE of those in care homes was 10 years and care homes have had a sizeable portion of these deaths with some who have died in hospitals will be care home residents.

[Zlatan]

Without sounding like I support BJ in any way whatsoever, I will say this - as long as Covid-19 is still active going through the winter, other countries may suffer a much larger second wave or need another lockdown whereas sacrificing our old people in care homes to get a higher rate of herd immunity may prove to be economically the “right” decision, and one I can understand BJ with DC making without batting an eyelid. Lockdown came when they realised we’d have an overrun NHS because of the cuts and austerity...

All my opinion of course

[Grumps]

Without sounding like I support BJ in any way whatsoever, I will say this - as long as Covid-19 is still active going through the winter, other countries may suffer a much larger second wave or need another lockdown whereas sacrificing our old people in care homes to get a higher rate of herd immunity may prove to be economically the “right” decision, and one I can understand BJ with DC making without batting an eyelid. Lockdown came when they realised we’d have an overrun NHS because of the cuts and austerity...

All my opinion of course

Does herd immunity work, if those infected never leave the care home?

[UnderSeige]

No covid deaths in Spain yesterday and only a handful of new cases. I've just had a wander round parts of Benalmadena and it's great to see people sat on terrace bars enjoying a refreshing drink and a meal. Regarding the idea that covid is losing its potency, didn't the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 more or less fizzle out eventually after killing about 20 million world wide?

A bit more on Spanish flue and lessons that can be learned from it for COVID-19.

"Frederick Trump, grandfather of the president, died of influenza on May 30, 1918, in the early days of the pandemic.According to the family, he had felt suddenly sick the day before while walking with his son, Fred". https://www.consultant360.com/article/c ... -we-learn

There were three waves of the flue. The first was relatively mild. The second was the most virulent and deadly killing a lot of young people. The third was less virulent and eventually 'Herd Immunity' occured.

Mortality rate was around 5%.

"1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.

In late August 1918, military ships departed the English port city of Plymouth carrying troops unknowingly infected with this new, far deadlier strain of Spanish flu. As these ships arrived in cities like Brest in France, Boston in the United States and Freetown in west Africa, the second wave of the global pandemic began". https://www.history.com/news/spanish- ... resurgence

There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

A third wave of illness occurred during the winter and spring of 1919, adding to the pandemic death toll. The third wave of the pandemic subsided during the summer of 1919. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resou ... -waves.htm

"Although the 1918 influenza pandemic was a different virus, and worldwide spread occurred without the help of international jet travel, many of the factors affecting the 1918 pandemic are still relevant to coronavirus in 2020... Will the lifting of social distancing measures too soon lead to or exacerbate a second wave, perhaps worse than the first, as occurred in 1918?"

"Those infected with mild symptoms in first wave were protected from more-severe disease in wave 2 or wave 3.

"Factors that will limit a wave include the following:

• a decreased number of susceptible individuals (via deaths or immunity or adequate social isolation if implemented early)

• a decrease in virulence or transmissibility of the virus over time

• and a decrease in the susceptibility of individuals at risk (eg, vaccine) and disease progression with exposure (eg, antiviral).

SOCIAL DISTANCING
"Most of the social distancing measures used today were well known and implemented with mixed severity and mixed outcomes in 1918. Total isolation, if implemented early, is effective. For example, American Samoa was totally isolated, and there were no cases there, while in Western Samoa, 22% of the population died."

"The effectiveness of social distancing is considered to depend on how well and how soon it implemented. In 1918, St Louis implemented these early and well, but Philadelphia did not, including allowing a WWI parade. Philadelphia had a greater rate of infection. However, when St Louis later started cutting back on social distancing restrictions, influenza cases spiked, and the city had to reinstate the measures."

"Lifting control measures when a population is still in the exponential part of the curve, and before any external factors that can limit a wave take effect (eg, a vaccine or antiviral), allows that population to regress to the point before controls were implemented".

IS A SECOND WAVE OF COVID-19 POSSIBLE?

"In Canada, there is already discussion of a second wave. Hong Kong is also concerned after having eased restrictions. Iran is also concerned about a second wave. (Note from US - Iran is in a second wave now).

“One lesson is clear from this experience: In handling any crisis, it is absolutely crucial to retain credibility. Giving false reassurance is the worst thing one can do.https://www.consultant360.com/article/c ... n-we-learn

[Zlatan]

Does herd immunity work, if those infected never leave the care home?

Does Herd immunity work? Probably, and the second part of your question is unrelated to the first part so I don’t understand what you’re getting at

[bfcjg]

The study I saw suggested that the average number of years of life lost was about 12 years.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hospital-deat ... 18829.html

Lower then average hospital deaths might suggest that the high numbers who died a couple of months ago would have been normally dieing now.

[Grumps]

Does Herd immunity work? Probably, and the second part of your question is unrelated to the first part so I don’t understand what you’re getting at

It was this bit of your post....

"whereas sacrificing our old people in care homes to get a higher rate of herd immunity may prove to be economically the “right” decision,"

I wasn't getting at anything, I was just asking.

[Zlatan]

It was this bit of your post....

"whereas sacrificing our old people in care homes to get a higher rate of herd immunity may prove to be economically the “right” decision,"

I wasn't getting at anything, I was just asking.

Ah ok, I was alluding to the political football that is the forgotten care homes and the way the government hung them out to dry in the early stages, things like forcing hospitals to move on elderly patients who were positive Covid-19 to care homes etc

I’ll openingly admit I think BJ and his goons have screwed up by being indecisive and making decisions for what appears to be the wrong reasons, but I can see them patting themselves on the back before the next election on how well they did during 2020

[Grumps]

Ah ok, I was alluding to the political football that is the forgotten care homes and the way the government hung them out to dry in the early stages, things like forcing hospitals to move on elderly patients who were positive Covid-19 to care homes etc

I’ll openingly admit I think BJ and his goons have screwed up by being indecisive and making decisions for what appears to be the wrong reasons, but I can see them patting themselves on the back before the next election on how well they did during 2020

It's been done before, we know patients were moved, whether that's was indiviual NHS, or goverment instructions.
What I do know, granted its only one care home, but the one I know, if they took a resident from anywhere, with no clean test, they were isolated for the recommended period in the home, dealt with by staff in PPE. They have not had one case
Whether other homes dealt with incoming residents the same way I Carnt say.

[aggi]

I guess if it really is the case that the life expectancy of those who died is a few months then we should start to see significant negative excess deaths when the country starts to get the virus under control.

[UnderSeige]

Ah ok, I was alluding to the political football that is the forgotten care homes and the way the government hung them out to dry in the early stages, things like forcing hospitals to move on elderly patients who were positive Covid-19 to care homes etc

I’ll openingly admit I think BJ and his goons have screwed up by being indecisive and making decisions for what appears to be the wrong reasons, but I can see them patting themselves on the back before the next election on how well they did during 2020

I am not sure whether it was the government that "forced hospitals to move on elderly patients who were positive Covid-19 to care homes". Often, when an elderly patient is admitted to hospital they are discharged to care homes by the NHS hospital for convalescence. This is normal practice if a patient is unsafe to return home immediately. The objective is to 'clear the beds as quickly as possible'.

What is clear is that on the weekend ending 15th March this process was speeded up.

Along with the elderly, numerous other patients were discharged such as cancer and heart patients. The reason for this is that one of the London hospitals had started to be overwhelmed like the hospitals in Italy. The fear was that this was going to be repeated all over the country. This would have shredded the governments 'NHS party credibility' to shreds.

At this point did the government panic and hand over control to 'Public Health England' to sort the situation out? If so was it with an instruction to clear beds? Did 'Public Health England' take the initiative rather than the government? Did the local NHS trusts take the initiative? Was it a 'mish mash' of all three?

I think that this could become a one of the big issues for several years to come.

David Starkey speaks about this in a very controversial interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S8Js-tEmlg

[aggi]

An interesting thread on testing statistics.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/ ... 8449323010

[tiger76]

An interesting thread on testing statistics.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/ ... 8449323010

I can't give details , but this was mentioned on last night's news, they're still counting home testing kits that have been mailed out, but not necessarily returned amongst the daily testing figures, why they insist on continuing to do this I've got no idea, and it's not the 1st time they've been rapped over the knuckles for it, i can only assume it's so they can claim to have met their arbitrary testing targets, and this makes them look good, TBH the numbers aren't the main issue with testing, it's how effective the strategy is which ultimately matters.

[FactualFrank]

When I check, Twitter says that status has been deleted?

[ksrclaret]

Liar Johnson taking an absolute battering from Starmer. He’s got quite the temper has Johnson when he’s being exposed, hasn’t he?

[UnderSeige]

Is Covid-19 Over (Italian Doctor's findings)?

Chris Martenson has covered this in his latest broadcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Hw09ncBfE

Highlights
(Italian Doctor's findings discussed 20 minutes into the video)

• We should know if COVID-19 is over in about two weeks time.(as per Italian Doctors findings)

• American protests drawing people together in a perfect environment for the disease to spread. If the disease is still virulent cases in the USA should start to rise rapidly in about two weeks time.

• COVID-19 might have lost its polybasic furin cleavage PRRA https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/14/sar ... revisited/

• COVID-19 may have lost something in the 'binding zone' or other amino acids.

• Case is building that COVID-19 had a lab origin

• Iran second wave after easing restrictions. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... econd-wave

• How Turkey took control of Covid-19 emergency and Turkey embraces hydroxychloroquine - Lancet study bogus, fraudulant and obviously wrong according to Chris Martenson. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52831017

• New England Journal of Medicine expresses concerns over data that has been used to denounce hydroxychloroquine.

• Daily rescues of the Large and Wealthy through financialization.

My comment: if COVID-19 has lost something, that has reduced it to a mild illness, it's more or less all over. It looks like we will have a better idea by the end of the month.

[Billy Balfour]

Liar Johnson taking an absolute battering from Starmer. He’s got quite the temper has Johnson when he’s being exposed, hasn’t he?

I cannot recollect a PM struggling so badly at PMQs when questioned by the Leader of the Opposition. Johnson is well out of his depth. Corbyn made him look good.

[aggi]

When I check, Twitter says that status has been deleted?

It works for me. Threadreader version here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1267 ... 23010.html

[fatboy47]

Liar Johnson taking an absolute battering from Starmer. He’s got quite the temper has Johnson when he’s being exposed, hasn’t he?

looking at his little tantrum when under pressure there, you can see how easily the lying shagbag could revert so quickly to knocking his partners around.

[Billy Balfour]

Looks like Johnson was being disingenuous with the truth at PMQs.

Sir Keir Starmer has not held a one-on-one conversation with the prime minister for more than a month, the Labour leader’s spokesman told journalists. As PA Media reports, the spokesman said the telephone talks referred to by Boris Johnson during PMQs (see 12.09pm) were with all opposition leaders, with the last one-on-one conversation occurring on April 29. Starmer has since written a letter requesting a meeting with the PM and the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, to discuss schools reopening but Labour says there has been no reply.

[FactualFrank]

We seem to be successfully preventing a second wave of the virus, by keeping the first one going.

[Billy Balfour]

That's certainly one way of looking at it. Baldrick's catch phrase; "I have a Cummings plan".

[Swizzlestick]

Can see why Durham Dom and his cabal have been doing their level best to minimise Johnson’s appearances (other than DC’s little jaunt). Man’s an absolute chancer.

[UnderSeige]

On Monday, NottsClaret posted a link to an article in which a top Italian Doctor claims that 'COVID-19 is losing it's potency'.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN2370OP

It's early days yet but I have since seen several other links that can give us grounds for optimism. Earlier today, I posted a link on the COVID-19 thread in which I refer to Chris Martenson's latest broadcast. He talks about the Italian Doctors claims that the 'viral load' of the disease has diminished significantly. He says that COVID-19 might have lost its polybasic furin cleavage PRRA (whatever that is) and it may have lost something in the 'binding zone' or other amino acids.

Chris also says that the protest marches across the USA are the perfect 'spreading ground' for the virus. If the virus is still potent in two weeks time there should be a huge spike in cases. Several weeks later there would then be the resulting fatalities. But if this doesn't happen, it will be a sign that the virus is weakening and that many cases are becoming asymtomatic.

Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute have discovered a new coronavirus mutation that mirrors a similar change that occurred to SARS in 2003. "In the middle and late phases of the SARS epidemic, the virus developed mutations that lessened its strength". https://www.healthing.ca/science/study- ... uld-weaken

"A team of Singapore-based scientists has uncovered the first glimmer of hope that the COVID-19 virus could be mutating into a less virulent strain after discovering key protein suspected to affect the virus’s transmission and severity has disappeared in some patients". https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/ ... 53d9943965

This, together with several vaccines progressing nicely has made me cautiously optimistic of an earlier than expected end to the pandemic.

[tiger76]

I cannot recollect a PM struggling so badly at PMQs when questioned by the Leader of the Opposition. Johnson is well out of his depth. Corbyn made him look good.

Summed it up in a sentence, Johnson got it easy facing Corbyn, since Starmer's came on the scene he's looked hapless.

He doesn't seem to understand the format of PMQ'S, the opposition leader and others ask questions you're supposed to provide answers not soundbites.