Covid-19

[tiger76]

Take this with a large dose of salt it is China after all.

China continues to report no domestic cases

China's health authority has reported no domestically transmitted cases on Thursday.

However, five new imported cases - including four in Shanghai and one in Sichuan province - were reported, bringing the total number of cases to 83,027.

China had a day earlier also seen no domestically transmitted cases, with only one new imported case recorded on Wednesday.

[fatboy47]

Not saying you're totally wrong, but who would you suggest?

It's been clear since mid march that the appropriate response to this crisis needs to be lead by a cross party coalition.

Party allegiances aside...I do believe almost all our intelligent citizens realise that Johnson is little more than a clown, and that this cv19 stuff is really not a circus.

[Grumps]

It's been clear since mid march that the appropriate response to this crisis needs to be lead by a cross party coalition.

Party allegiances aside...I do believe almost all our intelligent citizens realise that Johnson is little more than a clown, and that this cv19 stuff is really not a circus.

Ok.. ... But who is the Johnson replacement?

[Devils_Advocate]

Ok.. ... But who is the Johnson replacement?

If you asking for a name then you have to look at in what the reality of the situation would need to be for this to happen (it wont)

For Johnson and Cummings to go and for there to be support for an interim coalition it would take a big rebellion within the Tory party and therefore a will to want something different to what Johnson and his govt offers

In this scenario I would trust the Tory's would know which of the politicians would represent this position both in terms of competence and capability and in terms of honesty and integrity.

I dare say there are a few decent people inside his govt who without the pressure of the likes of Johnson, Cummings and Gove would be a lot more principled

So who that person would be I am not in a position to say but that doesn't mean the person is not out there and is not known to the people within Parliament itself.

Again this is fantasy land as it wont happen but it would need cross party support to have bill or whatever is needed to set the limitations of a coalition govt and it would need internal Tory party support to have an interim leader chosen by the politicians rather than the party election process

[Grumps]

I know it won't happen... Just asking of those who think it should
So easy to type a load of big words without actually suggesting anything

[tiger76]

Ok.. ... But who is the Johnson replacement?

I believe there's a chap by the name of Dominic Cummings, that fancies himself to run the country

On a serious note there's a frightening dearth of talent in both the cabinet, and shadow cabinet for that matter.

I would have said Michael Gove would have been an obvious choice a couple of years ago, but his recent media performances have been dire.

The name that keeps cropping up in WM circles is Rishi Sunak, he's one of the few ministers emerging from this catastrophe with any credit in the bank, beyond him i'm struggling, unless you look to the back benches and somebody like Hammond, but i can't see the Tory membership voting for him.

[NottsClaret]

With that infection rate going down again this week, it seems the inevitable 2nd wave caused by those VE Day celebrations and dog walkers in the Peak District might not happen just yet.

Makes you wonder what's happening with it now, as kids go back to school and the country slowly returns to work - yet it continues to fizzle out.

[martin_p]

With that infection rate going down again this week, it seems the inevitable 2nd wave caused by those VE Day celebrations and dog walkers in the Peak District might not happen just yet.

Makes you wonder what's happening with it now, as kids go back to school and the country slowly returns to work - yet it continues to fizzle out.

Fingers crossed!

[dsr]

I believe there's a chap by the name of Dominic Cummings, that fancies himself to run the country

On a serious note there's a frightening dearth of talent in both the cabinet, and shadow cabinet for that matter.

I would have said Michael Gove would have been an obvious choice a couple of years ago, but his recent media performances have been dire.

The name that keeps cropping up in WM circles is Rishi Sunak, he's one of the few ministers emerging from this catastrophe with any credit in the bank, beyond him i'm struggling, unless you look to the back benches and somebody like Hammond, but i can't see the Tory membership voting for him.

Even more frightening is the dearth of talent in the civil service. The politicians may have decided what to do too late, but even when they have decided what to do, PHE has been unable to do it. Once the minister has appointed 5,500 experts to run the show, it shouldn't be up to him to tell them what to spend the money on.

Protective equipment being a case in point. Hancock has been getting a lot of stick for not having enough PPE - but is it all his fault? Should he have told PPE how many facemasks they need to have, or should the 5,500 experts have been keeping on top of it? And then when the crisis started and Hancock clearly did tell PHE to get more PPE, is it still his fault that they fannied around being useless?

The Home Office has been a byword for incompetence for years. And it seems they are not alone.

[martin_p]

Even more frightening is the dearth of talent in the civil service. The politicians may have decided what to do too late, but even when they have decided what to do, PHE has been unable to do it. Once the minister has appointed 5,500 experts to run the show, it shouldn't be up to him to tell them what to spend the money on.

Protective equipment being a case in point. Hancock has been getting a lot of stick for not having enough PPE - but is it all his fault? Should he have told PPE how many facemasks they need to have, or should the 5,500 experts have been keeping on top of it? And then when the crisis started and Hancock clearly did tell PHE to get more PPE, is it still his fault that they fannied around being useless?

The Home Office has been a byword for incompetence for years. And it seems they are not alone.

The civil service performs as well as their ministers allow.

[UnderSeige]

Right there's not enough positive posts on this thread recently so this is great news.

AstraZeneca starts making potential vaccine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52917118

And the fact that almost 3m people have recovered from this virus, shows that you can beat it. This chap for one.

Man finally heads home after 35-day coma

With so many disturbing headlines around, it helps to remember there are many stories of survival too - even among those gravely ill with Covid-19.

Richard Hanson, 66, spent 35 days in a coma after catching the coronavirus while on holiday in Tenerife. Doctors also treated him for pneumonia and kidney failure. But now, against all odds, he's finally able to leave hospital in the UK.

Richard is far from the only case to survive such an ordeal though.

Other survivors who've come out of comas have shared messages of hope, while almost 2.9 million people worldwide have recovered from the virus, according to the tally kept by US-based Johns Hopkins University.

This has been the most positive week since the start of the lockdown.

The Italian Doctor reporting that the virus was weakening was a good start. This being backed up by Arizona State University and another organisation from Singapore. Hope that this pans out?

Several vaccines look to be on track and we could have millions of doses available in the fourth quarter.

Daily infection rates and fatalities falling.

The government has hesitantly admitted that 'the wearing of face coverings' could help to stop the spread of the virus. Talk about the 'blummin obvious'.

The boring debate about Dominic Cummings has gradually faded away.

We should know a lot more next month. We should get to know how successful the Oxford/Astra Zenica vaccine has been in trials. With all the protest marches, seaside crowds, garden parties etc. if the virus has not taken off again by early next month, the Italian Doctor could be right.

Back on the Turf for Christmas?

[Grumps]

I believe there's a chap by the name of Dominic Cummings, that fancies himself to run the country

On a serious note there's a frightening dearth of talent in both the cabinet, and shadow cabinet for that matter.

I would have said Michael Gove would have been an obvious choice a couple of years ago, but his recent media performances have been dire.

The name that keeps cropping up in WM circles is Rishi Sunak, he's one of the few ministers emerging from this catastrophe with any credit in the bank, beyond him i'm struggling, unless you look to the back benches and somebody like Hammond, but i can't see the Tory membership voting for him.

I agree, there's no stand out candidate, which is why I ask the question when people say sack Boris, without suggesting a replacement
Gove has shown himself up horribly over the past months, I think rishi is too inexperienced, he only got this job because somebody else didn't want it.... Nope, we're stuck with what we've got.

[FactualFrank]

The latest from the Office for National Statistics say they think 7% of the population have already had the virus at some point.

[Tall Paul]

I believe there's a chap by the name of Dominic Cummings, that fancies himself to run the country

On a serious note there's a frightening dearth of talent in both the cabinet, and shadow cabinet for that matter.

I would have said Michael Gove would have been an obvious choice a couple of years ago, but his recent media performances have been dire.

The name that keeps cropping up in WM circles is Rishi Sunak, he's one of the few ministers emerging from this catastrophe with any credit in the bank, beyond him i'm struggling, unless you look to the back benches and somebody like Hammond, but i can't see the Tory membership voting for him.

Philip Hammond is no longer an MP

[Devils_Advocate]

I know it won't happen... Just asking of those who think it should
So easy to type a load of big words without actually suggesting anything

I was just trying to answer your question as honestly as I could. I really want Johnson gone but I don't know the MPs well enough in terms of their ability and integrity to suggest one (or I could suggest one but it would be pure speculation)

What I am 100% confident of is that there is a better option out there to come in as an interim and work in a coalition than to stick with the total incompetence of the current govt.

Its like a football fan saying they want to replace one of their weakest players but not having the exact name of who should replace them with. Just because they dont have the in-depth knowledge of what players are available at what price and how good they are doesn't mean their view of wanting to replace a poor player is any less valid

[CombatClaret]

Makes you wonder what's happening with it now, as kids go back to school and the country slowly returns to work - yet it continues to fizzle out.

"70% of those testing positive aren’t reporting any symptoms either at the visit when they have a swab or the visit before and after,”

The problem remains the problem when it was spreading rapidly, most people who have it don't know, until it finds someone it kills. And by the time the deaths start to rise it's too late because you're two weeks behind the problem.

I dearly want to be proven wrong and we open back up again, cases continue to fall and we all go back to normal asap, nothing would please me more.

[Billy Balfour]

Not saying you're totally wrong, but who would you suggest?

Not directed at you Grumps, but I'm not going down that particular road. It will only end up in yet another UTC p1ssing contest. Anyway, like my post said, it's up to the Tory Parliamentary Party to put people in charge, who are better equipped to deal with the current situation, than the current bunch of chancers and opportunists. Unless of course, the Johnson Clique is the best they have to offer.

[martin_p]

The R rate has risen to 0.7 - 1.0 according to the government with the North West being a particular concern, some local authorities here may have a R rate above 1. Not good news. It’d be good to know which are the local authorities in question.

[Billy Balfour]

Thing is, we still don't know with regards to VE Day and the easing of the lockdown measures. It can take up to 10 days for people to develop symptoms. Those who end up in hospital can be three or four weeks into the infection.

Anyway, fingers crossed.

[Billy Balfour]

The R rate has risen to 0.7 - 1.0 according to the government with the North West being a particular concern, some local authorities here may have a R rate above 1. Not good news. It’d be good to know which are the local authorities in question.

Yes, we really need to know and to beat this the govt will have to enforce local and maybe regional lockdown measures. They really need to get their finger out. The quicker we are out of this the better, both for the needless deaths and the economy.

[dsr]

Thing is, we still don't know with regards to VE Day and the easing of the lockdown measures. It can take up to 10 days for people to develop symptoms. Those who end up in hospital can be three or four weeks into the infection.

Anyway, fingers crossed.

VE Day was 28 days ago. If there was going to be a reaction, it would have happened by now.

[UnderSeige]

The R rate has risen to 0.7 - 1.0 according to the government with the North West being a particular concern, some local authorities here may have a R rate above 1. Not good news. It’d be good to know which are the local authorities in question.

It's been a struggle to get local figures. There's a lookup box on the following link about half way down.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football ... s-22096975

Burnley:.....194 confirmed cases.
Rossendale: 175 confirmed cases.
Hyndburn ...149 confirmed cases.
Pendle ......188 confirmed cases.
Calderdale..296 confirmed cases.
Rochdale....815 confirmed cases.
Blackburn...413 confirmed cases.

[tiger76]

Philip Hammond is no longer an MP

Oh! yeah i forget he was one of the awkward squad who got pushed out over brexit, there's been that many changes that one slipped my mind.

And this throws up part of the problem in sourcing future leaders of the Conservative party, a lot of the cabinet outwith Gove & Johnson are inexperienced at the top level.

Equally the opposition isn't any better placed to offer experienced alternatives, if and when they get in government.

[Grumps]

The R rate has risen to 0.7 - 1.0 according to the government with the North West being a particular concern, some local authorities here may have a R rate above 1. Not good news. It’d be good to know which are the local authorities in question.

Greater Manchester mayor leaked the official version of infection rates earlier which showed the North West as decreasing....

[UnderSeige]

VE Day was 28 days ago. If there was going to be a reaction, it would have happened by now.

Yes it was Friday 8th May. If there was a lot of 'infection spreading' on this weekend you wouldn't have expected the daily figures to keep steadily going down like they have.

It's a difficult one to predict when it would impact the figures on the up side. They wouldn't have all contracted it on VE day but would have passed it on to others in the two or three weeks that followed. The ones who they passed it onto would have been a bit later and so on.

• Some would have contracted it on VE day and then it would take several days to incubate and produce symptoms.

• Some would not have the symptoms but would still be infectious

• After around 10 days those with symptoms would be isolating but most would probably not have been tested at that time.

• The asymptomatic ones would be freely spreading it around at work, in supermarkets etc. after ten days if not before.

• After another 7 days, those still with symptoms would have been tested and some would be admitted to hospital. I am not sure when they would end up as part of the daily figures.

• You would then get a further batch who had contracted it from the VE day infectees and so on.

[dsr]

Yes it was Friday 8th May. If there was a lot of 'infection spreading' on this weekend you wouldn't have expected the daily figures to keep steadily going down like they have.

It's a difficult one to predict when it would impact the figures on the up side. They wouldn't have all contracted it on VE day but would have passed it on to others in the two or three weeks that followed. The ones who they passed it onto would have been a bit later and so on.

• Some would have contracted it on VE day and then it would take several days to incubate and produce symptoms.

• Some would not have the symptoms but would still be infectious

• After around 10 days those with symptoms would be isolating but most would probably not have been tested at that time.

• The asymptomatic ones would be freely spreading it around at work, in supermarkets etc. after ten days if not before.

• After another 7 days, those still with symptoms would have been tested and some would be admitted to hospital. I am not sure when they would end up as part of the daily figures.

• You would then get a further batch who had contracted it from the VE day infectees and so on.

I'm fairly sure the much-maligned Cheltenham Festival increase didn't take a month to register. The VE Day bounce isn't going to happen.

We can wait for the Spring Bank Holiday bounce, perhaps. If that doesn't happen, then at least gets the schools back in and see if we can see the same results there.

[UnderSeige]

VE Day was 28 days ago. If there was going to be a reaction, it would have happened by now.

I think that the big test will be next month. The potential virus spreading activities of the last few days will eclipse VE day by far. Street protests, beach crowds, beauty spot crowds, people returning to work etc.

If the virus is still highly infectious and spreading the Ro should increase and the daily figures should take off again (like Iran). If not, then things will be looking up.

[UnderSeige]

I'm fairly sure the much-maligned Cheltenham Festival increase didn't take a month to register. The VE Day bounce isn't going to happen.

We can wait for the Spring Bank Holiday bounce, perhaps. If that doesn't happen, then at least gets the schools back in and see if we can see the same results there.

Hope your right. So far so good.

[aggi]

This seems to be what is showing the North West R above 1. Not entirely clear what the source is



https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... t-18370083

[martin_p]

This seems to be what is showing the North West R above 1. Not entirely clear what the source is



https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... t-18370083

If that’s the truth then it’s very worrying, especially as London was supposedly 0.4 a few weeks ago.

[martin_p]

This seems to be what is showing the North West R above 1. Not entirely clear what the source is



https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... t-18370083

The figures are apparently from scientists at the University of Cambridge and Public Health England so you’d think fairly reputable. However they are not the figures used by SAGE and the government.

[Grumps]

The figures are apparently from scientists at the University of Cambridge and Public Health England so you’d think fairly reputable. However they are not the figures used by SAGE and the government.

Certainly not the ones Andy Burnham was circulating earlier, North West was under 1 and decreasing.

[martin_p]

Certainly not the ones Andy Burnham was circulating earlier, North West was under 1 and decreasing.

Ok, just looked that up. It shows the North West at 0.8 (0.7 - 0.9) which is exactly the same as the figure from the previous week, so R not decreasing at the moment. These are the official government figures.

[CombatClaret]

I'm surprised at the speed at which we're opening up without pausing for even a week to see what the numbers do with the inbuilt lag times.
Every day it's something new; 6 people, primary schools, car showrooms, McDonalds, Ikea etc. If suddenly we see cases spike how do we know what it is that triggered it?

[MrTopTier]

Uk stops second wave by continuing with the first one.

[MrTopTier]

In all seriousness over here on the Fylde, Blackpool’s R rate is at 1.6.

[fanzone]

The government can't be blamed for the increasing R rate. The rules are there. Keep your distances and wash your hands. Stay alert and control the virus. It's very simple.

Oh and Boris for Pm for at least the next 5 years.

[Zlatan]

Delusional

[Swizzlestick]

The government can't be blamed for the increasing R rate. The rules are there. Keep your distances and wash your hands. Stay alert and control the virus. It's very simple.

Oh and Boris for Pm for at least the next 5 years.

I don’t even think he’s PM now. Talk about phoning it in.

[tiger76]

The government can't be blamed for the increasing R rate. The rules are there. Keep your distances and wash your hands. Stay alert and control the virus. It's very simple.

Oh and Boris for Pm for at least the next 5 years.

Seemingly this government isn't to blame for anything, Brexit talks going badly, all the EU'S fault, covid running out of control, all the fault of the public, when will they take some responsibility for their slow response and the fact that the lockdown was late, PPE is still patchy in it's delivery, and the world-beating track and trace system promised by our esteemed part-time PM, might not even be up and running by the Autumn.

On top of that the messaging has been appalling from DS, and has led to many of the ensuing problems, and that's even before we get to the government's favoured policy of herd immunity, and the constant lying and spinning of the stats, mind you apart from all that they've done a great job.

Well according to Boris the buffoon they have, and as we all know Boris Johnson would never lie.

[Zlatan]

I blame Corbyn

[fanzone]

Negotiations are going well with the EU. Looks like we are leaving without a deal and creating our own luck going forward. Brilliant in my eyes that.

[bfcjg]

I blame Corbyn

TBH so do I and the naive idiots who put him in power in the former working class labour party because if traditional labour members and I admit I am a former one from years ago so am as guilty had the balls to seize back the party from the sixth form sociology students with degrees in badger sexing and pottery for minorities ie momentum we would have had a decent publicly funded higher but fairer taxes for all better response to this. As a member of the G7 we should have done and be doing better. I so reluctantly voted Tory as the rest were dreadful, let's hope next time we can vote for something we believe in not the least worse.

[ksrclaret]

Looks like we are leaving without a deal and creating our own luck going forward.

It was nice knowing you all.

[fatboy47]

TBH so do I and the naive idiots who put him in power in the former working class labour party because if traditional labour members and I admit I am a former one from years ago so am as guilty had the balls to seize back the party from the sixth form sociology students with degrees in badger sexing and pottery for minorities ie momentum we would have had a decent publicly funded higher but fairer taxes for all better response to this. As a member of the G7 we should have done and be doing better. I so reluctantly voted Tory as the rest were dreadful, let's hope next time we can vote for something we believe in not the least worse.

so...in short..you were brainwashed and helped vote this clown into power...well done you.

[bfcjg]

so...in short..you were brainwashed and helped vote this clown into power...well done you.

I knew full well what I was doing thank you fatboy, the alternatives were horrendous. The tories should have gone with Hunt.

[UnderSeige]

Seemingly this government isn't to blame for anything, Brexit talks going badly, all the EU'S fault, covid running out of control, all the fault of the public, when will they take some responsibility for their slow response and the fact that the lockdown was late, PPE is still patchy in it's delivery, and the world-beating track and trace system promised by our esteemed part-time PM, might not even be up and running by the Autumn.

The government have performed very badly imo. The WHO didn't help the situation by advising that it was OK to travel to and from COVID affected countries as late as 29th February.

WHO recommendations for international traffic in relation to COVID-19 outbreak
29 February 2020 COVID-19 Travel Advice
Recommendations for international traffic
WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.https://www.who.int/news-room/articles- ... 9-outbreak

Flights were coming into the country from Wuhan and Italy during March. I can remember Nigel Farage, on his LBC programmes, 'playing merry pop' about it. There were no restrictions whatsoever on incoming passengers as far as I know. People were walking through customs as normal. No heat scans; no health questionnaires; no advice on self isolating; no quarantine etc. Many of them boarded public transport and went into the city of London (most likely other cities as well).

Then there was the Cheltenham festival, Steriophonics tour and Liverpool v Real Madrid matches in the middle of March. Borris Johnson attended a rugby match during that week. Sports began to close down before any government restrictions.

There was a brief flirtation with 'herd immunity'. The abandonment of 'track and trace' which could have been up and running long before now.

The Labour party and Scottish Nationals were in agreement with the government until recently. I can't recall hearing any Liberal Democrats since the start of the pandemic. I don't really know who there will be to vote for next time.

[dermotdermot]

I blame Corbyn

So do I.

[CombatClaret]

Flights were coming into the country from Wuhan and Italy during March. I can remember Nigel Farage, on his LBC programmes, 'playing merry pop' about it. There were no restrictions whatsoever on incoming passengers as far as I know.

This is just the case of a broken clock being right twice a day, whatever the issue is he will always bring it back to not letting people into the country, coronavirus is just the latest excuse to shroud his racism.

[CombatClaret]

Things no longer featuring in daily Covid briefings.

• International comparisons

• Specific test numbers

• Track and trace numbers

• Scientists

"The aim seems to be to show the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding." - Sir David Norgrove, UK Statistics Authority

What happens when you put a dodgy PR firm in power.