Covid-19

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UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:19 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:19 pm
Certainly going in the right direction Tiger.

What's the thinking, that we need to give it until around the 14th-15th to see what the easing down has done?
I think that by this time next month we should have an idea about the direction the pandemic is taking - at least for the summer. There are several things that have happened over the last few weeks that should cause the virus to take off again. The D-Day street parties; government easing of the lockdown; increased use of public transport as people go back to work; people flocking en-mass to the seaside and other beauty spots; the demonstrations; the raves in the woods; and the general feeling by many that it's virtually all over.

If it doesn't take off with all that then you might begin to think that something has happened to it to cause it to fizzle out. There were several posts on this last week. The Italian doctor saying that the viral load is falling; possibilities that a large number of people are immune due to cross protection from the common cold etc.

On the other hand If it does take off badly then we are likely to be in lockdown again by the end of next month.

The next milestone after next month will be Autumn going into winter. Questions will be such as:
  • Will there be a resurgence of the virus in the winter months?
  • Will a vaccine become available? If so when? As early as September? Sometime towards the end of the year? Next spring?

Burnley Ace
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Burnley Ace » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:26 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:59 pm
South Korea achieved a similar result to New Zealand without going into lockdown. It all depends on whether a country has an effective containment plan. New Zealand and S Korea (among others) have had one from the start. The UK still hasn't got one.

Population
South Korea: 51.64 million Land mass: 99,720 sq km...... COVID-19 Cases: ..11,814. .. Fatalities:....273
UK:........... 66.65 million Land mass: 243,610 sq km .... COVID-19 Cases: 287,399..... Fatalities: 40,597

Cities in S Korea include Seoul (9.9 million); Busan (3.48 m); Incheon (2.9m); Daegu (2.5m); 5 other cities with a population in excess of 1 million; 13 other cities with a population in excess of 0.5 million.

"With approximately 70% of the country considered mountainous, the country's population is primarily concentrated in the lowland areas, where density is quite high". https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/com ... ed-kingdom
S Korea have done a good job, they learnt from SARS, they had 60% of their first cluster identified as members of Shincheonji Church of Jesus, and good legislation enacted since SARS gave them authority to collect mobile phone, credit card, and other data from those who test positive to reconstruct their recent whereabouts. We still have concerns about personal data and personal freedom, if only we were as compliant as S Koreans lockdown may have worked.

Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:30 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:11 pm
You are laughable, you think you can compare NZ with the UK. Learn to pick your battles Zlatan because you just look foolish.
I don’t pick on those less fortunate like people lacking in IQ, don’t worry, you’re safe

Burnley Ace
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Burnley Ace » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:44 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:30 pm
I don’t pick on those less fortunate like people lacking in IQ, don’t worry, you’re safe
Look Zlatan I know I’ve had to school you on a couple of topics and I apologise for making you look a bit stupid, it wasn’t my intention, but your continual attempts to try to create an argument are just getting a bit childish. Let’s just agree to disagree I really can’t be bothered to keep correcting you, it’s getting tiresome.

Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:46 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:44 pm
Look Zlatan I know I’ve had to school you on a couple of topics and I apologise for making you look a bit stupid, it wasn’t my intention, but your continual attempts to try to create an argument are just getting a bit childish. Let’s just agree to disagree I really can’t be bothered to keep correcting you, it’s getting tiresome.
You’ve schooled me, ok then. Yes, let’s agree to disagree otherwise you’ll dig so deep you won’t get out

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:48 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:40 pm
Auckland is still a fairly congested, overcrowded city with lots of poverty. Real achievement to stop it taking hold and spreading. Shame we can't do a swap, we'll take Jacinda Ardern and send Boris Johnson and Cummings down there.
You must really hate New Zealand. ;)

Burnley Ace
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Burnley Ace » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:49 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:46 pm
You’ve schooled me, ok then. Yes, let’s agree to disagree otherwise you’ll dig so deep you won’t get out
Oh Zlatan do you feel that you always have to have the last word? Take a knee son, it’s a position you’re best suited to.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:51 pm

Oh the irony.

Edited...

UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:30 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:26 pm
S Korea have done a good job, they learnt from SARS, they had 60% of their first cluster identified as members of Shincheonji Church of Jesus, and good legislation enacted since SARS gave them authority to collect mobile phone, credit card, and other data from those who test positive to reconstruct their recent whereabouts. We still have concerns about personal data and personal freedom, if only we were as compliant as S Koreans lockdown may have worked.
It's a good point to say that they already had legislation in place.

The following article argues that it's a mistake to argue that 'Asian containment policies' are only possible due to the compliant nature of the Asian populace. It is a myth that has cost the West dearly in both health and economy.

Cultural tropes don’t explain South Korea’s success against COVID-19. Competent leadership does.
"This is nonsense, and it repeats the same mistake that allowed the rampant coronavirus outbreaks in the United States and Europe in the first place: the mistake of seeing Asia as an unrelatable other, a place so fundamentally different from the West that no knowledge or experience is transferable. The United States and Europe are suffering from COVID-19 because they saw the virus as an “Asian disease,” somehow unable to reach their own shores. Now, they run the risk of rejecting the best practices of combating the pandemic as they imagine “Asian solutions” that can never be replicated in their countries".

"Ultimately, South Korea’s success is thanks to competent leadership that inspired public trust. No sacred Confucian text advised Korean health officials to summon medical companies and told them to ramp up testing capacity when Korea had only four known cases of COVID-19. No Asian wisdom made Korean doctors think they should test everyone with pneumonia symptoms regardless of travel history, which led to the discovery of the now infamous “Patient 31” and the suppression of the massive coronavirus cluster in the city of Daegu caused by the secretive Shincheonji cult. The South Korean public isn’t hoarding toilet paper not because they are sheep with no individual agency but because they plainly saw that their government was committed to being transparent and trusted it to act in their interest".
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/02/co ... ientalism/

bfcjg
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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:31 pm

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/satellite-ima ... 44017.html
This story would seem to support the theory that the virus was in Europe at least towards the end of last year as research is now showing.

ksrclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:36 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:31 pm
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/satellite-ima ... 44017.html
This story would seem to support the theory that the virus was in Europe at least towards the end of last year as research is now showing.
Very interesting. I remain almost convinced that I contracted the virus in mid-December, as if I'd have had those symptoms in February or March I wouldn't have been in any doubt.

Another interesting theory I've seen suggests the first wave went largely unnoticed towards the end of last year, and this is in fact the second and more deadly wave we are living through. No evidence to back that up yet but it'll be interesting to see if anything comes of that theory.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:37 pm

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:40 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:36 pm
Very interesting. I remain almost convinced that I contracted the virus in mid-December, as if I'd have had those symptoms in February or March I wouldn't have been in any doubt.

Another interesting theory I've seen suggests the first wave went largely unnoticed towards the end of last year, and this is in fact the second and more deadly wave we are living through. No evidence to back that up yet but it'll be interesting to see if anything comes of that theory.
A number of people have phoned into LBC saying that they think they might have had COVID-19 at the end of last year/early this year.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:10 pm

Heard something today that sounded quite positive - thought I would share.

Not been following this thread or covid news generally, so apologies if already discussed or referred to at briefings.

My wife is a nurse. Her hospital had a call this week which she attended. On the call she was told that at her hospital confirmed Covid-19 admissions are as high as they were at the peak (sounds worrying), but that there are no patients ventilated. An epidemiologist was on the call and said they think this is because the virus is weakening as it mutates, which explains why ventilated patients / deaths are falling. So fingers crossed it’s on it’s way out.
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NewClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:15 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:40 pm
A number of people have phoned into LBC saying that they think they might have had COVID-19 at the end of last year/early this year.
I had the worst illness of my life in the first week of Feb. Unable to leave bed for a week and very weak for another. Oddly, the week after my son had come up in rashes similar to Kawasaki disease (diagnosed by Dr as “Slapped Cheek Syndrome” despite looking nothing like it).

Dismissed it as flu at the time since I hadn’t been to Wuhan :lol: :lol: but not so sure now....

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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:19 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:10 pm
Heard something today that sounded quite positive - thought I would share.

Not been following this thread or covid news generally, so apologies if already discussed or referred to at briefings.

My wife is a nurse. Her hospital had a call this week which she attended. On the call she was told that at her hospital confirmed Covid-19 admissions are as high as they were at the peak (sounds worrying), but that there are no patients ventilated. An epidemiologist was on the call and said they think this is because the virus is weakening as it mutates, which explains why ventilated patients / deaths are falling. So fingers crossed it’s on it’s way out.
There's been a lot of suggestions along those lines in the last week or so. Can only be good news.

It certainly sounds extremely plausible, because the viruses that mutate to be weaker (meaning they can survive for longer in a host) are the ones which will reproduce more and therefore will be transmitted more. The viruses that have a more deadly effect on their hosts will not be able to reproduce as often as they cannot do so outside of a living host cell. That will be even more true when we are observing social distancing.

I think the best short to mid term prognosis of this pandemic will involve us living alongside a weaker variant of the virus.
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ksrclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:29 pm

Another thing to note - a virus has an incredibly small genome when compared with other organisms (sometimes as few as 5-6 genes compared with the 25,000 human genes) and they don't have any non-coding regions in their genome. That means that any mutation in the DNA/ RNA base sequence will likely result in a structural change to the viral proteins. In short, significant mutations are very likely to occur in virus particles.

The coronavirus is an RNA virus which are known to experience a high rate of mutations anyway. Thankfully, natural selection dictates that those mutations which weaken the virus are the more likely to be selected for.
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NewClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:33 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:19 pm
There's been a lot of suggestions along those lines in the last week or so. Can only be good news.

It certainly sounds extremely plausible, because the viruses that mutate to be weaker (meaning they can survive for longer in a host) are the ones which will reproduce more and therefore will be transmitted more. The viruses that have a more deadly effect on their hosts will not be able to reproduce as often as they cannot do so outside of a living host cell. That will be even more true when we are observing social distancing.

I think the best short to mid term prognosis of this pandemic will involve us living alongside a weaker variant of the virus.
Clearly more clued up than me on this topic but really hope you are right.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:41 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:10 pm
Heard something today that sounded quite positive - thought I would share.

Not been following this thread or covid news generally, so apologies if already discussed or referred to at briefings.

My wife is a nurse. Her hospital had a call this week which she attended. On the call she was told that at her hospital confirmed Covid-19 admissions are as high as they were at the peak (sounds worrying), but that there are no patients ventilated. An epidemiologist was on the call and said they think this is because the virus is weakening as it mutates, which explains why ventilated patients / deaths are falling. So fingers crossed it’s on it’s way out.
There has been several reports stating that the virus might be coming less aggressive in the last few weeks, let's hope that's correct, as if it is then although it'll still be a nuisance, it may not be the deadly killer it's currently proving to be.

And if it's dying out naturally, we might be able to start getting the economy up and running sooner than we thought, that maybe why the PM and his team are trying to fast track the opening of various sectors. This virus has been catastrophic for many families, but the impact of job losses is also significant, and has to be balanced against health concerns.

No new deaths reported in London, Northern Ireland and Scotland today, even factoring in the weekend effect, that's got to be seen as good news.

The hotspots now seem to the North-West and South-West of England, and these are the areas where local lockdowns could prove most effective, if they're deemed necessary.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:59 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:41 pm
There has been several reports stating that the virus might be coming less aggressive in the last few weeks, let's hope that's correct, as if it is then although it'll still be a nuisance, it may not be the deadly killer it's currently proving to be.

And if it's dying out naturally, we might be able to start getting the economy up and running sooner than we thought, that maybe why the PM and his team are trying to fast track the opening of various sectors. This virus has been catastrophic for many families, but the impact of job losses is also significant, and has to be balanced against health concerns.

No new deaths reported in London, Northern Ireland and Scotland today, even factoring in the weekend effect, that's got to be seen as good news.

The hotspots now seem to the North-West and South-West of England, and these are the areas where local lockdowns could prove most effective, if they're deemed necessary.
Totally agree with this post.

Let’s hope any weakening of the virus also means this weekends antics don’t cause more unnecessary deaths or suffering.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:04 am

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:33 pm
Clearly more clued up than me on this topic but really hope you are right.
Me too mate. It's all just theory at the moment but it does seem to stack up.

As Tiger says above, if it is the case hopefully we can continue to open up and not see any further spikes. Local flare ups to be expected but as long as the national picture mirrors other countries that have opened up we should be fine. Fingers crossed because I'm so weary of it now.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:29 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... pe-inquiry

Sadly still more concerned with public image than learning lessons.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:44 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:37 pm
UK v NewZealand Comparison
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQDPQ8bz7cU
2 metres social distancing in NZ for many would be a street party

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:07 am

West Yorkshire the lowest in the country according to the random rubbish.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:30 am

One of guys back at work after furlough has brother who works in a hospital in the Midlands, they are retesting stored sputum samples from September as the data is showing a surge in chest infections and pneumonia in September.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Vintage Claret » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am

It does seem like likely from recent reports that the virus may well have been lurking in the UK earlier than we thought.

As an aside, my wife works for the NHS and had an antibody test last week which came back positive for CV-19 antibodies yesterday.

Thinking back, in early January she did have a bout of what we assumed at the time was flu which made her feel pretty grotty for about 4-5 days.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:18 am

bfcjg wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:30 am
One of guys back at work after furlough has brother who works in a hospital in the Midlands, they are retesting stored sputum samples from September as the data is showing a surge in chest infections and pneumonia in September.
The US Newsweek magazine have published an investigation into some 'gain-of-function research' that was being conducted at the 'Wuhan Institute of Virology' towards the latter end of 2019. It is thought that a possible cause of the virus is a 'lab accident' in which one of the lab workers became infected and then started the spread in the Wuhan community.
https://www.newsweek.com/controversial- ... ic-1500503

Highlights
"The Controversial Experiments and Wuhan Lab Suspected of Starting the Coronavirus Pandemic"

"The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency updated its assessment of the origin of the novel coronavirus to reflect that it may have been accidentally released from an infectious diseases lab, Newsweek has learned...U.S. intelligence revised its January assessment in which it "judged that the outbreak probably occurred naturally" to now include the possibility that the new coronavirus emerged "accidentally" due to "unsafe laboratory practices" in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the pathogen was first observed late last year".

"We have no credible evidence to indicate SARS-CoV-2 was released intentionally or was created as a biological weapon," the report found"

"Back in 2002, when SARS emerged in China's Guandong province, it served as a wake-up call. Over the next few decades, the U.S., China and other nations poured money into efforts to hunt down and catalogue strange new pathogens that live in wild animals and figure out how much of a threat they pose to humans, with the goal of preventing the next devastating pandemic".

"Wuhan Institute of Virology scientists have for the past five years been engaged in so-called "gain of function" (GOF) research, which is designed to enhance certain properties of viruses for the purpose of anticipating future pandemics. Gain-of-function techniques have been used to turn viruses into human pathogens capable of causing a global pandemic".

"This is no nefarious secret program in an underground military bunker. The Wuhan lab received funding, mostly for virus discovery, in part from a ten-year, $200 million international program called PREDICT, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and other countries. Similar work, funded in part by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, has been carried out in dozens of labs throughout the world. Some of this research involves taking deadly viruses and enhancing their ability to spread quickly through a population".

"In the years since the SARS outbreak, many instances of mishaps involving the accidental release of pathogens have taken place in labs throughout the world. Hundreds of breaches have occurred in the U.S., including a 2014 release of anthrax from a U.S. government lab that exposed 84 people. The SARS virus escaped from a Beijing lab in 2004, causing four infections and one death. An accidental release is not complicated and doesn't require malicious intent. All it takes is for a lab worker to get sick, go home for the night, and unwittingly spread the virus to others".

"To be sure, there's no evidence that SARS-Cov-2 came from the Wuhan lab, nor that the virus is the product of engineering. Most scientists believe, based on the evidence available, that a natural origin is the most likely explanation. But neither have they ruled out these possibilities".

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:01 pm

Vintage Claret wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am
It does seem like likely from recent reports that the virus may well have been lurking in the UK earlier than we thought.
As an aside, my wife works for the NHS and had an antibody test last week which came back positive for CV-19 antibodies yesterday.
Thinking back, in early January she did have a bout of what we assumed at the time was flu which made her feel pretty grotty for about 4-5 days.
I will be very hard to know even with hindsigh, it was flu season too.

Given that the R rate is know nto be 3-4 I wondering if it's even possible for the virus to have 'lurked' quietly. If it was out there even in small numbers it would have been growing exponentially and killing people.
Maybe looking back at the data we might be able to spot above normal pneumonia deaths or some kind of statistical indicators.

By March though it seems we had hundred of thousands of infections and it had reached nearly every part of the UK.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by TheFamilyCat » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:45 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:10 pm
Heard something today that sounded quite positive - thought I would share.

Not been following this thread or covid news generally, so apologies if already discussed or referred to at briefings.

My wife is a nurse. Her hospital had a call this week which she attended. On the call she was told that at her hospital confirmed Covid-19 admissions are as high as they were at the peak (sounds worrying), but that there are no patients ventilated. An epidemiologist was on the call and said they think this is because the virus is weakening as it mutates, which explains why ventilated patients / deaths are falling. So fingers crossed it’s on it’s way out.
Typical mass-produced Chinese rubbish. Not built to last.
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Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:46 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:45 pm
Typical mass-produced Chinese rubbish. Not built to last.
Got no chance of sending it back either

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Vintage Claret » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:04 pm

As you say it is very hard to know CC, might well have been normal flu my wife had and she contracted Covid at some point but was asymptomatic.

I still think it's possible the virus could have been around earlier but in a less lethal form and what we saw in March/April was actually the more deadly '2nd wave' but I'm only speculating.

Can only hope for everyone's sake we are over the worst of it and reports suggesting the virus might be weakening turn out to be correct.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Chuckypad » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:23 pm

This is eerie bearing in mind it was made in June 2019. Apologies if posted before:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08g5h5j

Edit - Just realised it was made in June 2020....bit of a whoosh there! :lol:
Last edited by Chuckypad on Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:25 pm

That's a lot of excess deaths, but it doesn't automatically mean they're all linked directly to covid.

Nearly 64,000 excess UK deaths since March

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

Since the middle of March, just over 200,000 people have died in the UK - that figure is nearly 64,000 more than would be expected at this time of year.

This number is larger than the deaths total we hear announced by the UK government in its daily briefing because that figure only includes people who died after testing positive for coronavirus.

This figure of 63,708 includes people who died with undiagnosed Covid-19 or who are victims of the overall strain that has been put on healthcare and on society.

Just over 11,000 people died in the last week of May. That’s fewer than in previous weeks, so the trends are going in the right direction, but that doesn’t mean the figures or the country are back to normal.

The number of deaths is still about 20% above what we’d expect.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by claret2018 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:25 pm

I'm absolutely convinced I had it mid-late December. All the symptoms, including the loss of taste/smell.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:33 pm

I was ill for about a week or so in mid January, i assumed it was seasonal flu, which it probably was, but you do wonder with all these anecdotal reports.

My symptoms from memory were fatigue, loss of appetite and diarrhoea, i can't say i noticed the loss of taste or smell however.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:34 pm

Numbers are dropping up here.

Seven further deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland
There have been a further seven deaths of people who tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland - but First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says the figures show "further indication of a clear downward trend".

Speaking at Scotland's daily briefing, she said a total of 15,653 people have now tested positive for Covid-19, an increase of 14 from Monday.

There were 1,011 patients in hospital with a suspected or confirmed case - down 31, with 21 being treated in intensive care.

There have been a total of 2,422 deaths.

There had been two consecutive days of zero deaths registered - but Sturgeon says the new figures are "not a surprise" given the lag in registering deaths at weekends.

Last Tuesday 12 deaths were reported.

Hopefully means further lockdown easing on the cards next week, when NS reviews it.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:43 pm

Vintage Claret wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:24 am
It does seem like likely from recent reports that the virus may well have been lurking in the UK earlier than we thought.

As an aside, my wife works for the NHS and had an antibody test last week which came back positive for CV-19 antibodies yesterday.

Thinking back, in early January she did have a bout of what we assumed at the time was flu which made her feel pretty grotty for about 4-5 days.
I'd be interested in having a test, as all the symptoms described I've had - but we're going back to early December when I had them.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:23 pm


dsr
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:28 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:25 pm
That's a lot of excess deaths, but it doesn't automatically mean they're all linked directly to covid.

Nearly 64,000 excess UK deaths since March

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

Since the middle of March, just over 200,000 people have died in the UK - that figure is nearly 64,000 more than would be expected at this time of year.

This number is larger than the deaths total we hear announced by the UK government in its daily briefing because that figure only includes people who died after testing positive for coronavirus.

This figure of 63,708 includes people who died with undiagnosed Covid-19 or who are victims of the overall strain that has been put on healthcare and on society.

Just over 11,000 people died in the last week of May. That’s fewer than in previous weeks, so the trends are going in the right direction, but that doesn’t mean the figures or the country are back to normal.

The number of deaths is still about 20% above what we’d expect.
It doesn't even mean they are indirectly linked to Covid. Most obviously are, but not all of them. There is random variation.

Interestingly for the "this is the second wave" theorists, in the back end of last year - September to Christmas, weeks, 36-51 - the number of deaths was above the 5-year average every week. Total 6,838 "excess deaths".

And then for the next 12 weeks, until the first recorded coronavirus deaths, the number of deaths was below the average every week - total 5,375 deaths "below expected".

Random variation? Probably, IMO.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:39 pm

Weekly death figures continue to fall.

Less than a fifth of UK deaths in the last week of May were linked to coronavirus, figures show.

Across the UK, 2,000 (18%) of deaths mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate, compared to 38% at the peak in April.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, said some deaths involving coronavirus in care homes "will have brought forward deaths that might otherwise have happened relatively soon".

Without wishing to minimise the loss for those families, this last sentence does bring into context the fact that many residents in the care sector might well have passed away even without the impact of CV.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by aggi » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:50 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:33 pm
I was ill for about a week or so in mid January, i assumed it was seasonal flu, which it probably was, but you do wonder with all these anecdotal reports.

My symptoms from memory were fatigue, loss of appetite and diarrhoea, i can't say i noticed the loss of taste or smell however.
I know a few people who believed they had it quite early who have subsequently had antibody tests and appear not to have had it.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:56 pm

aggi wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:50 pm
I know a few people who believed they had it quite early who have subsequently had antibody tests and appear not to have had it.
The chances are if you think it was flu, or a winter cold it probably was. I'm certainly not one to become hysterical about it, if you've already had it, then that's better for you in the long run, as you should have built up some resistance if you become reinfected. And if you haven't had CV, which the vast majority won't have, then that's good as well.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:08 pm

Coronavirus nurse runs 96-mile race in hospital corridor

A coronavirus charge nurse is attempting to complete a virtual race of the West Highland Way by running up and down the longest hospital corridor in Scotland.

Donna Pass, 52, from Forfar, hopes to complete the 96 mile (155km) distance during breaks amid her 12 hour shifts at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee.

The corridor, which is one of the longest in the UK, is almost one mile.

More people have climbed Mount Everest than have completed the race.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:29 pm

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/over-half-peo ... 12752.html
Nearest stat to date showing herd immunity. I wonder if there are such hot spots in the UK ?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:10 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:43 pm
I'd be interested in having a test, as all the symptoms described I've had - but we're going back to early December when I had them.
For all who think they might have had it at some stage. The government have said that they are going to start antibody testing at some stage. When they do you will be able to get the test and know for sure.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:17 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:10 pm
For all who think they might have had it at some stage. The government have said that they are going to start antibody testing at some stage. When they do you will be able to get the test and know for sure.
They aren't sure how long immunity lasts though, I think this is the thing.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:18 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:28 pm
It doesn't even mean they are indirectly linked to Covid. Most obviously are, but not all of them. There is random variation.

Interestingly for the "this is the second wave" theorists, in the back end of last year - September to Christmas, weeks, 36-51 - the number of deaths was above the 5-year average every week. Total 6,838 "excess deaths".

And then for the next 12 weeks, until the first recorded coronavirus deaths, the number of deaths was below the average every week - total 5,375 deaths "below expected".

Random variation? Probably, IMO.
A number of fatalities are likely to have occurred due to the NHS stopping many forms of treatment and emptying beds to prepare the hospitals for COVID-19. This would include such as heart and cancer patients. All/Most Private sector hospitals were closed as well as dentistry. There may have also been many people who needed treatment for non-covid injury/illness who didn't seek medical help for fear of catching the disease at the hospital.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:23 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:39 pm
Weekly death figures continue to fall.

Less than a fifth of UK deaths in the last week of May were linked to coronavirus, figures show.

Across the UK, 2,000 (18%) of deaths mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate, compared to 38% at the peak in April.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, said some deaths involving coronavirus in care homes "will have brought forward deaths that might otherwise have happened relatively soon".

Without wishing to minimise the loss for those families, this last sentence does bring into context the fact that many residents in the care sector might well have passed away even without the impact of CV.
If this is the case we should expect a reduction in total non-covid fatalities once the pandemic ends. This would be so because the fatalities of a large number of people would have been brought forward and would not occur at a later date.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:28 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:17 pm
They aren't sure how long immunity lasts though, I think this is the thing.
What it will do is tell you whether you have had it or not.

It's not clear how long the antibodies last for. It would be very unusual if the virus could still re-infect once someone has recovered and developed antibodies.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:39 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:29 pm
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/over-half-peo ... 12752.html
Nearest stat to date showing herd immunity. I wonder if there are such hot spots in the UK ?
You'd imagine same areas of London would be contenders for high instances of people having developed anti-bodies.

That was the early epicentre in the UK.

Locked