Blackpool, Barrow in Furness and the South Coast Brighton area also come to mind.
I must admit I've not been following the news as much over the past few days, but i thought that was meant to be the idea of the track & trace system, to pick up on any local outbreaks, and prevent them spreading, obviously we're aware that they can't antibody test the whole country, but small localised areas where there's the potential for clusters to form, should surely be manageable.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:59 amBlackpool, Barrow in Furness and the South Coast Brighton area also come to mind.
The government should be testing the general population for antibodies in these areas to see what the 'state of play' is. Will they? "Well uh ahh were working hard uhm".
The last that I heard was the system that will be used for local lockdown is not up and running yet. Like the 'track and trace system' it could be a few weeks away. Track and trace will use antigen tests rather than antibody tests.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:50 amI must admit I've not been following the news as much over the past few days, but i thought that was meant to be the idea of the track & trace system, to pick up on any local outbreaks, and prevent them spreading, obviously we're aware that they can't antibody test the whole country, but small localised areas where there's the potential for clusters to form, should surely be manageable.
This is what worries me about our government's approach, i don't see any evidence of a concrete strategy, there may well be one, but if it exists then it's being kept mightily quiet.
Hancock was talking about perhaps implementing localised lockdowns about a week ago, but i don't see how that's viable, if they're not able to carry out a good number of antibody tests in specific locations.
If we had such data from our 'hot spot areas' we could perhaps work out how the virus is spreading.aggi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:37 pmMuch higher percentage of people infected in Bergamo than is being found in most places. Antibody tests are suggesting 57% have been infected which, theoretically, is around the herd immunity level. That came with a fatality rate of something like 3.5% though which is obviously very high.
Antibodies can only be tested for 2 weeks after infection so they are not a usefully tool for tracking and containing current outbreaks which is the aim of T&T. I've not read any evidence that antibody tests will play any part in current T&T plans.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:50 amI must admit I've not been following the news as much over the past few days, but i thought that was meant to be the idea of the track & trace system, to pick up on any local outbreaks, and prevent them spreading, obviously we're aware that they can't antibody test the whole country, but small localised areas where there's the potential for clusters to form, should surely be manageable.
We will probably have a vaccine (private sector) before the government get their act together with their centralised public test & trace, regional lockdown and antibody testing.CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:29 pmAntibodies can only be tested for 2 weeks after infection so they are not a usefully tool for tracking and containing current outbreaks which is the aim of T&T. I've not read any evidence that antibody tests will play any part in current T&T plans.
I'm amazed though there is not larger effort being put in to provide the public with antibody tests or at least a larger study to gain more data based on sampling.
I ordered a private antibody test performed by one of the two labs testing NHS antibody tests (Abbot & Roche) but the governments had banned them from carrying them out due to unexplained accuracy concerns over capillary blood. Both labs say there is no evidence that taking from blood from capillaries (finger prick) rather than a vein effects results by any statistical measure.
I think it's another case of the government trying to keep everything in house. I also think they're trying to manage optics, as it will be seen as a class thing that people with £75 to spare can get a test while people who don't will have to wait. And with NHS staff only just stating to have them imagine how long it will take to be able to offer it to the entire population, if ever.
Texas has reported two consecutive days of record-breaking Covid-19 hospitalizations as the state continues to open businesses and resume activities that were temporarily shuttered due to the coronavirus.
"Texas opened hair salons on May 8 under certain restrictions, such as maintaining six feet of distance between beauty stations. Gyms and exercise facilities, nonessential manufacturing plants and office buildings could reopen with 25% capacity and other social-distancing guidelines on May 18.
The state later allowed bars to reopen at 25% capacity and restaurants at 50% capacity. Infectious disease and public health experts warn that indoor settings where people may not be wearing a face covering and the air circulates less could increase the risk of the virus spreading".
First I've heard of a Japan vaccine. First half of next year is also encouraging.
This is a statement from Abbott, manufacturer of one the antibody tests. https://www.abbott.co.uk/media-center/n ... -kits.html It looks like they're not keen on it being used for home testing. I suspect a substantial amount of extra testing may be required in order to see what difference the different method of blood extraction makes (if any).CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:29 pmAntibodies can only be tested for 2 weeks after infection so they are not a usefully tool for tracking and containing current outbreaks which is the aim of T&T. I've not read any evidence that antibody tests will play any part in current T&T plans.
I'm amazed though there is not larger effort being put in to provide the public with antibody tests or at least a larger study to gain more data based on sampling.
I ordered a private antibody test performed by one of the two labs testing NHS antibody tests (Abbot & Roche) but the governments had banned them from carrying them out due to unexplained accuracy concerns over capillary blood. Both labs say there is no evidence that taking from blood from capillaries (finger prick) rather than a vein effects results by any statistical measure.
I think it's another case of the government trying to keep everything in house. I also think they're trying to manage optics, as it will be seen as a class thing that people with £75 to spare can get a test while people who don't will have to wait. And with NHS staff only just stating to have them imagine how long it will take to be able to offer it to the entire population, if ever.
Hope so. No resurgence in Europe so far.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:00 pmLet's hope this profs correct.
UK could see a day with zero coronavirus deaths within three weeks
"By the end of the month we could be in a position where we are observing no deaths."
The number of deaths each day from coronavirus in the UK could drop to zero with three weeks, according to a professor from Oxford University.
Professor Carl Heneghan has based his forecast on current trends, with falling 999 and 111 calls.
He told the Times: “The trend in the data is looking reassuring and there’s no reason it shouldn’t continue. By the end of the month we could be in a position where we are observing no deaths.”
He added: “Community transmission is low, admissions to hospitals are very low.
"We’ve been opening up society and it is reassuring that we’re going in the right direction. If we stay vigilant we should be able to continue opening up society... We’re seeing it across Europe — no bounce-back.”
The Hong Kong protests soon ended (albeit temporary) when it was known that a pandemic was on the way. I don't think that many of us in the 'West' get it.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:22 pmSee this is precisely why protesting shouldn't be allowed during this pandemic, This is the result of reckless actions.
DC National Guards test positive for Covid after protests
Several members of the Washington, DC National Guard have tested positive for Covid-19 after being deployed to the Black Lives Matter protests sparked by the death of George Floyd, the military says.
The National Guard says it will not disclose the number of guardsmen infected due to "operational security".
The members were among the 1,300 troops sent to the US capital during mass demonstrations that began last weekend. They were joined by almost 4,000 additional National Guard troops from other states.
Meanwhile members of the White House coronavirus task force say they fear a spike in cases linked to nationwide civil unrest triggered by Floyd's death. Dr Deborah Birx advised state governors to ensure Covid tests are available in urban areas after 70 testing sites were destroyed in protests, US media report.
Bonkers that they destroyed testing sites FGS, shows how dumb these dim asses are.
I assume you're referring to the lockdown being brought in late, i don't disagree, and this will be a major part of any future inquiry.Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:05 pmQuite alarming evidence from Prof Ferguson this afternoon.
Maybe we should pay more attention to the medical staff. This is a sobering account of their day to day life.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:33 pmThe Hong Kong protests soon ended (albeit temporary) when it was known that a pandemic was on the way. I don't think that many of us in the 'West' get it.
Unforgivable the time we wasted when we had the evidence and the advise, tens of thousands of deaths at the hands of the government.Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:05 pmQuite alarming evidence from Prof Ferguson this afternoon.
But CC you should know by now that we can't criticise the government, until we have all the the available facts to hand.CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:51 pmUnforgivable the time we wasted when we had the evidence and the advise, tens of thousands of deaths at the hands of the government.
Professor Ferguson was a Government Adviser at the time we went into Lockdown. Perhaps hexwould have been better giving the advice then, rather than with perfect hindsight giving it now.Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:05 pmQuite alarming evidence from Prof Ferguson this afternoon.
Did he say what his advice was at the time, being a member of sage?Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:05 pmQuite alarming evidence from Prof Ferguson this afternoon.
How do you know he didn't give the advice then, scientists don't male the political calls, that's down to the ministers.Claretincraven wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:22 pmProfessor Ferguson was a Government Adviser at the time we went into Lockdown. Perhaps hexwould have been better giving the advice then, rather than with perfect hindsight giving it now.
I’m fairly certain he’s the chap who broke the lockdown rules by getting his mistress to visit - if he is, his words now will appear as a bitter attack on the government how ever accurate they may be.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:28 pmHow do you know he didn't give the advice then, scientists don't male the political calls, that's down to the ministers.
Scientists can advice and recommend, but the final call is down to the government of the day.
Quite why Ferguson's getting so much air time is baffling, he hardly emerges from this episode with his reputation enhanced.
If he was a member of SAGE, which i'm pretty sure he was, then his words should be recorded, if that's the case he'd be daft to fabricate statements to the media.
I think we can be fairly certain he didn't give the advice at the time. Given his pronouncement today if he had he would be very quick to tell anyone that would listen.tiger76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:28 pmHow do you know he didn't give the advice then, scientists don't male the political calls, that's down to the ministers.
Scientists can advice and recommend, but the final call is down to the government of the day.
Quite why Ferguson's getting so much air time is baffling, he hardly emerges from this episode with his reputation enhanced.
He predicted half a million deaths if the UK persued an 'herd immunity policy'.
Two weeks after lockdown he was saying that SAGE were hoping to keep the number of fatalities below 20 thousand. The following is a short video interviewUnderSeige wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:05 pmHe predicted half a million deaths if the UK persued an 'herd immunity policy'.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -lockdown/
I agree. The Private Sector could have been much more involved. You would have thought that the economy still has enough manufacturing capability to produce PPI - which are just bits of plastics and plastic garments.CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:30 amI would agree with Undersiege above. Any government in a pandemic would struggle to survive afterwards, and I suspect the economic damage will be the problem, damage that would have been lessened if SAGE had advised early in March to immediately implement a semi-lockdown (shutting pubs, work from home if possible, sensible social distancing - a bit like Hong Kong did).
The problem was that SAGE underestimated the volume of virus in the country (Ferguson admitted that yesterday) because loads had some in from ski resorts and spread all over the UK. They also underestimated the rate of transmission (doubling every 3-4 days not every 5-6 days). Finally, they underestimated severity - they thought that if they had enough ICU bed and ventilator capacity, most people using them would survive, it turns out not to have been the case.
Then you get the error that was NHS England writing to the care sector in mid March to ask them to take as many patients as possible so beds could be freed up.
The virus then became so prevalent that a total lengthy lockdown (which otherwise wouldn’t have been needed) was needed to suppress it.
None of those errors could be laid at the governments door (though they have made many more), and thus I suspect that the public sector scientists and chief medics will be the ones culpable in this. The reasons being a culture of being very brainy but slow to act, not very dynamic, too controlling (e.g. not expanding testing to private sector at an early stage) and too much done by committee. Something that in my career I’ve been frustrated with for 30 years.
Its the private sector and more specifically the contracts have gone to Dominic Cummings friends and family. We could have just used an existing app but then the friends of the Tory's wouldn't have made millions and they wouldn't have been able to harvest our dataUnderSeige wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:12 amI also wonder who is developing the App for contact tracing. Is this some sort of public sector effort? Why couldn't we just have used the software from another country and adapted it to our purposes or get the private sector to create an app? Perhaps that too is subject to endless meetings and controls and various checks and sign offs by anyone and everyone who thinks his or her job is to 'block progress' and 'stop things from happening'.
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:20 amIts the private sector and more specifically the contracts have gone to Dominic Cummings friends and family. We could have just used an existing app but then the friends of the Tory's wouldn't have made millions and they wouldn't have been able to harvest our data
The development will be being led by NHSX, the NHS’s IT arm, but they are working with private companies. Don’t know if they’re linked to Cummings though.
Yes, im on my work laptop so cant access the info about it all. One person is the brother of they guy who was part of the Cumming SAGE scandal and his mother is some kind of senior role (possible director) of one of the businesses awarded some of the contract
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881This is correct. It is an NHS team (NHSX) that is building it in house according to the FT.