Covid-19

[tiger76]

initially back in march this was highly impactive, a strange and dangerous virus to deal with and people began to panic.
Most could understand the governments measures and behaved appropriately. Now in mid june , its apparent there has been a colossal failure by those in charge of decision making and protecting the public. the care home issue alone is a national disgrace.
Add to this the imbecilic masses ignoring things and having beach days out, traipsing off to snowdonia, and the pig ignorant hordes of revellers and idiots marching and protesting.we have every chance now of allowing this to become a huge problem again very soon . people push the boundaries as much as possible. and the virus will wreak more havoc amongst an apathetic public.

You're accurate about the care homes, none of the 4 UK governments emerge with credit for their handling of the care sector, and that needs addressing urgently.

If people can't follow simple advice and stay the f**k at home, well most are still being paid their full earnings, then i give up to the thick British public.

Now we might get lucky and not experience a resurgence, or a 2nd wave, but it'll be down to luck and not judgement, by either the government, or the moronic British public.

These idiots flouting the lockdown and social distancing measures do realise that if there's a 2nd wave, and we have to impose another lockdown, then they're more likely to find themselves out of work, the furlough scheme can protect some, but it's not an endless bottomless pit of state assistance, and sooner or later it will have to be slowly scaled back, and that's when the real economic impact will be known.

[Lowbankclaret]

People can't distance on the tube in London yet there doesn't seem to be any spikes in that area.

Yet, let’s see how the next two weeks go.
One positive is making face coverings compulsory.
Temperature checks and hand sanitizer needs to be compulsory next.

[Grumps]

Tiger, I would call it realism.

If the government had listened to me and Lowbank they would have locked down at least 2 weeks earlier and prevented many 10,000’s of deaths.

Once you accept reality you can re-align your life and get on with it.

Hey Boris, you should have listened to lowbank, and Paul's wife on a burnley football forum, and none of this would have happened

What a load of utter shite....

[bfcmik]

Add to that the fact we only have 392 people in hospital now down from over 1500 a month ago and we have lots of positives.

Of course, there are dangers and probably a few bad days to come but the late July/early August predictions for non-reportable numbers looks very accurate when compared to the reality of reported cases and deaths at this time. They are not predicting zero any time soon but consistent single digit numbers for deaths and less than a 100 cases per week. Lots of solid evidence has been developed for this, whether because of social distancing and other measures or not, having a fatality rate of around 0.2% in almost every developed country across the globe with an unknown against the rest because of the lack of testing infrastructure.

People keep talking about new Zealand - the place has nothing like the population density of England, nor the economic infrastructure needed when you have 67 million people all needing their essentials on a regular basis - nor does it have the manufacturing base of the UK to maintain

[Lowbankclaret]

No that's incorrect. The flu is not a "corona type virus", whatever that means. Flu is caused by the influenza virus and Covid-19 is caused by a coronavirus.

Look around the world right now and there are reasons for optimism. Countries that opened up over a month ago continue to see their death rate, infection rate and hospital admissions fall.

If you want revel in your own negativity, that's fine, but I can't imagine it's much fun being you. Please though, try and keep it off this board. And if you really can't resist, make it clear that the negativity is merely your opinion and don't present it as fact.

Your right it’s not the same, the common cold is a corona virus.
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/covid ... asonal-flu’

Also that’s another thing that seems to be a new thing in the UK.

You tell me I cannot have a view and post it.

This is becoming the new thing in the UK.

A view different to someone else’s cannot be said.

Freedom of speech is to be stopped. Different views not allowed.

I read an article today warning we are becoming the new USSR.

You need to be careful you don’t become the problem, a country with only one view become a dictatorial state.

[Lowbankclaret]

Hey Boris, you should have listened to lowbank, and Paul's wife on a burnley football forum, and none of this would have happened

What a load of utter shite....

An ex gov advisor stated if lockdown would have been done a week earlier, half the deaths would not have happened.

But all along you have been happy with loads of people popping their clogs.

[ksrclaret]

Your right it’s not the same, the common cold is a corona virus.
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/covid ... asonal-flu’

Also that’s another thing that seems to be a new thing in the UK.

You tell me I cannot have a view and post it.

This is becoming the new thing in the UK.

A view different to someone else’s cannot be said.

Freedom of speech is to be stopped. Different views not allowed.

I read an article today warning we are becoming the new USSR.

You need to be careful you don’t become the problem, a country with only one view become a dictatorial state.

Post your views, but please don't present your negative opinions as facts. That's what I'm saying. It really doesn't help anyone.

[UnderSeige]

Stay at home and you'll end up dying of boredom and inertia, as long as people adhere to the social distancing measures introduced in shops, and exercise basic common sense, then you greatly reduce your chances of catching the virus.

Ideally the R number would be lower before lockdown is eased, but most people aren't paying the restrictions any heed now, so in that case we might as well try and get the economy moving again, the economic figures are horrendous now, imagine what they'll be like in another month or so.

My worry is that they will be even more horrendous if we have to go into lockdown a second time because we came out of it the first time without an effective containment strategy. Not to mention the increased infection and fatality rates

Lets hope that this doesn't happen.

[paulatky]

Hey Boris, you should have listened to lowbank, and Paul's wife on a burnley football forum, and none of this would have happened

What a load of utter shite....

Again Grumps you start using abusive words .

Then wonder why people respond negatively to you.

One thing we do agree on, the peak has now passed, 3 months after after you first said you didnt know if we were past the peak or not.

You have posted rubbish over the past week but I didnt respond to you.

Been sensible and polite debate on here this afternoon, then you arrive.

[UnderSeige]

It's not reasonable to compare the 2 countries for lots of reasons. If more Labour and Tory MPs had done what they promised in their 2017 manifestos, BJ would never had been PM. You reap what you sow. Disgusting anti-democratics the lot of them.

You have got to compare the UK's strategies with other countries that have been more successful than us. Most of their successes have come from good management, better technology and being proactive rather than from cultural differences.

[paulatky]

My worry is that they will be even more horrendous if we have to go into lockdown a second time because we came out of it the first time without an effective containment strategy. Not to mention the increased infection and fatality rates

Lets hope that this doesn't happen.

Hi Underseige ,have you any comments on that r (t) graph I posted around lunchtime today.
I dont understand it.

[Caballo]

Tiger, I would call it realism.

If the government had listened to me and Lowbank they would have locked down at least 2 weeks earlier and prevented many 10,000’s of deaths.

Once you accept reality you can re-align your life and get on with it.

In fairness to the government they probably didn't know which of your alt's they were supposed to be listening to.

[Erasmus]

With regard to the effectiveness of vaccines against flu and Covid 19, there is a clear difference. Influenza comes in different forms each year and so the effectiveness or otherwise of a vaccine depends on a correct prediction of which form will appear in the winter. Where that prediction is correct, the vaccine is effective. So far, Coved 19 has appeared in a single form with only minor variatinons and so when a vaccine does arrive it should be a more effective preventative measure than the flu vaccination.

[Billy Balfour]

If people can't follow simple advice and stay the f**k at home, well most are still being paid their full earnings, then i give up to the thick British public.

There should have been real financial consequences for breaking the lockdown rules while being paid 80% for supposedly being at home. Forfeiting 50% of the furlough money for the first offence would have been a start. It's not much to ask when picking up 80% of your wages doing nowt.

[aggi]

There's a lot of talk about R and it creeping above one, just under one, etc but one thing I haven't seen is what kind of confidence interval is there for R, it's been treated like an accurate number throughout but you'd expect realistically it to be an interval of ±0.1 or something.

Has anyone seen anything delving deeper into that?

[Grumps]

An ex gov advisor stated if lockdown would have been done a week earlier, half the deaths would not have happened.

But all along you have been happy with loads of people popping their clogs.

Iam saying its shite that Paul's wife says Boris should have listened to him and you

If they'd have locked down in January, and shut all borders we might not have had any deaths... . . Hindsight eh?

[paulatky]

An ex gov advisor stated if lockdown would have been done a week earlier, half the deaths would not have happened.

But all along you have been happy with loads of people popping their clogs.

Purely from a statistical basis ( called science by the government) the earlier lockdown is done the lower the rate of spread.

By point of lockdown , 23rd March, it is now being assumed the number of cases was doubling ever 3 to 4 days. So if we had 1,500,00 infected on the 23rd March then a week earlier there would have been 375,000 infected and 7 days even earlier 95,000 infected.

Just locking down 7 days earlier we would have started from a base of 375,000 not 1,500,000 so its not unreasonable to assume we could have prevented upto three quarters of the deaths.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Iam saying its shite that Paul's wife says Boris should have listened to him and you

If they'd have locked down in January, and shut all borders we might not have had any deaths... . . Hindsight eh?

Or foresight.

[Grumps]

Again Grumps you start using abusive words .

Then wonder why people respond negatively to you.

One thing we do agree on, the peak has now passed, 3 months after after you first said you didnt know if we were past the peak or not.

You have posted rubbish over the past week but I didnt respond to you.

Been sensible and polite debate on here this afternoon, then you arrive.

Abusive words?

I never said that, as you well know

I don't think I've posted much this week

At the risk of starting a bickering war, I won't be conversing with you further Mrs Atky, so don't waste your time replying.

[Zlatan]

Own up, who put 50p in the dickhead again...?

[paulatky]

Iam saying its shite that Paul's wife says Boris should have listened to him and you

If they'd have locked down in January, and shut all borders we might not have had any deaths... . . Hindsight eh?

But you know that I said it at the time.
Like no crowds at footy till March 2021, deep long long lasting recession,high unemployment and house price crash and lawlessness , aka the current protests

[paulatky]

Own up, who put 50p in the dickhead again...?

Unfair to call Grumps that.

[Grumps]

Own up, who put 50p in the dickhead again...?

Don't be using abusive words

I did..... You just won it for me ( that's a joke by the way, just in case people have no sense of humour)

[Devils_Advocate]

Hindsight or foresight you decide

Rory Stewart 12th March
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdeHUGalpaE

[paulatky]

Or foresight.

Logical foresight made from known facts at the time which were available to everyone.

How those facts were interrupted is what defines a leader.

[ksrclaret]

But you know that I said it at the time.
Like no crowds at footy till March 2021, deep long long lasting recession,high unemployment and house price crash and lawlessness , aka the current protests

You must be having a laugh there.

Show me where it's been confirmed there won't be any crowds at football until March 2021?

And are you really claiming to have predicted the killing of George Floyd in the USA that would lead to protests and lawlessness?

Just stop. Please, just stop.

[Zlatan]

Couple of nibbles I see

At one point we were all quite civil on this thread, we need to go back to that

[kentonclaret]

The numbers of passengers travelling on the Tube network is still just a small fraction of the numbers pre Covid19. Numbers are expected to increase tomorrow which is why the compulsory wearing of a face covering whilst on public transport comes into effect then. Double decker buses only carry a maximum of 20 passengers with no standing. It will be interesting to see if many more people return to work or head out shopping.

[Lowbankclaret]

Iam saying its shite that Paul's wife says Boris should have listened to him and you

If they'd have locked down in January, and shut all borders we might not have had any deaths... . . Hindsight eh?

Yes hindsight is great, but some of us were saying this before this all happened.
Now I am telling you of the on coming economic impact.

Same is happening, oh well.

[Damo]

There should have been real financial consequences for breaking the lockdown rules while being paid 80% for supposedly being at home. Forfeiting 50% of the furlough money for the first offence would have been a start. It's not much to ask when picking up 80% of your wages doing nowt.

What about people who weren't furloughed?
I'm not trying to argue your point, it's just at times I wondered how they would police people like me, who worked full time throughout if caught doing unnecessary journeys

[bfcmik]

An ex gov advisor stated if lockdown would have been done a week earlier, half the deaths would not have happened.

But all along you have been happy with loads of people popping their clogs.

That same scientist, in the same statement, also said that lockdown would have been impossible to sell to the majority of the country at any point earlier than it was announced. Democratic governments can only rule with the consent of the people. That is why there are so many unenforced laws on our statute book.

[Lowbankclaret]

You must be having a laugh there.

Show me where it's been confirmed there won't be any crowds at football until March 2021?

And are you really claiming to have predicted the killing of George Floyd in the USA that would lead to protests and lawlessness?

Just stop. Please, just stop.

Anyone could have predicted the police killing of a black man. Er it happens most months in the US.

[Grumps]

You must be having a laugh there.

Show me where it's been confirmed there won't be any crowds at football until March 2021?

And are you really claiming to have predicted the killing of George Floyd in the USA that would lead to protests and lawlessness?

Just stop. Please, just stop.

He missed the bit out where he predicted 250,000.00 deaths in UK, and and a strict 7 month lockdown...
Even a clocks right twice a day.

[paulatky]

Hindsight or foresight you decide

Rory Stewart 12th March
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdeHUGalpaE

Great post DA.

My assumption at that time was that the number of cases would double every 7 days but as has been reported in London and some other areas it was doubling every 3 to 4 days in the week leading up to lockdown.

The example of placing one grain of rice on the bottom left hand corner on a chess board and then 2 on the next then 4 etc by the time you get to the final square you would need 10 times the total grains in the world.

In my younger days I thought I could make my fortune by doubling up every time I lost at ref/black on roulette. I soon realised a losing run would wipe out the funds, no matter how much money you started with.

Brings back memories of Claretpunter on the old message board.

[Lowbankclaret]

That same scientist, in the same statement, also said that lockdown would have been impossible to sell to the majority of the country at any point earlier than it was announced. Democratic governments can only rule with the consent of the people. That is why there are so many unenforced laws on our statute book.

And why we will have A second wave.

[bpgburn]

No that's incorrect. The flu is not a "corona type virus", whatever that means. Flu is caused by the influenza virus and Covid-19 is caused by a coronavirus.

Look around the world right now and there are reasons for optimism. Countries that opened up over a month ago continue to see their death rate, infection rate and hospital admissions fall.

If you want revel in your own negativity, that's fine, but I can't imagine it's much fun being you. Please though, try and keep it off this board. And if you really can't resist, make it clear that the negativity is merely your opinion and don't present it as fact.

Hang fire, who are you to tell someone to keep their personal opinions off this board whether negative or positive? If he wants to deal with this Pandemic being ultra cautious that's up to him, he's not forcing it on you. By the way a Coronavirus covers a family of viruses causing respiratory symptoms from the common cold to SARS (bird flu).
You need to calm ya'sen lad, you'll be giving yourself a Coronary being so sanctimonious.

[paulatky]

Hindsight or foresight you decide

Rory Stewart 12th March
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdeHUGalpaE

Great post DA.

My assumption at that time was that the number of cases would double every 7 days but as has been reported in London and some other areas it was doubling every 3 to 4 days in the week leading up to lockdown.

The example of placing one grain of rice on the bottom left hand corner on a chess board and then 2 on the next then 4 etc by the time you get to the final square you would need 10 times the total grains in the world.

In my younger days I thought I could make my fortune by doubling up every time I lost at ref/black on roulette. I soon realised a losing run would wipe out the funds, no matter how much money you started with.

Brings back memories of Claretpunter on the old message board.

[Lowbankclaret]

He missed the bit out where he predicted 250,000.00 deaths in UK, and and a strict 7 month lockdown...
Even a clocks right twice a day.

The modelling showed up to 500,000 deaths with no lock down.

The gov said a good outcome would be 20,000 deaths with a lockdown.
I said with lockdown light we would have 50 to 70 k deaths, just about where we are.

This second wave could see us hit 250,000, but think it will be less but not by many.

[bfcmik]

And why we will have A second wave.

A second wave similar to where - no real evidence anywhere across the planet for a 2nd wave of any significance. People saying there will be one isn't hard evidence

[UnderSeige]

Once you accept reality you can re-align your life and get on with it.

That is very true. I started off thinking that it was just another 'flue like virus' and that it wouldn't be a problem. I also thought that at the time it was only affecting a tiny proportion of the population I happily went along to the Spurs game on the 7th March.

It was a few days after that I realised that it was something much more serious. I started listening to the Chris Martenson talks on 'Peak Wealth'. Chris had been warning about the virus since January.

I think that a lot of people are terrified of going out whilst a lot of others are still in the 'no knowledge don't care it won't get me camp'. I am now extremely cautious but not scared, have a diet adjusted to keeping the immune system running and I have rough idea (or several rough ideas) of how and when it will end. If people don't accept reality they are likely to lunge from one disappointment to the next.

[Lowbankclaret]

Own up, who put 50p in the dickhead again...?

It’s become a common practice on this board, bully anyone of a thread who have a different view. It’s a real shame bullies drive people of threads but it appears that’s the new norm for the UK.

[Lowbankclaret]

A second wave similar to where - no real evidence anywhere across the planet for a 2nd wave of any significance. People saying there will be one isn't hard evidence

Take a look at Iran.
And now 12 states of the USA.

You can live with your eyes shut or open up to reality and react to it.

[UnderSeige]

They don't have a vaccine in New Zealand.

If we can manage to get rid of the virus like they've done then surely we can get back to normal.

Problem is we don't seem to be attempting to get rid of the virus like they've done. We have a 'world beating track and trace system' with technology that doesn't work and a third of the people not responding. We are coming out of the lockdown before we have an effective containment plan.

Lets hope that the virus is weakening or a vaccine will be available by the end of summer. Then Boris can claim that British ingenuity backed by the government has saved the day.

[ksrclaret]

Hang fire, who are you to tell someone to keep their personal opinions off this board whether negative or positive? If he wants to deal with this Pandemic being ultra cautious that's up to him, he's not forcing it on you. By the way a Coronavirus covers a family of viruses causing respiratory symptoms from the common cold to SARS (bird flu).
You need to calm ya'sen lad, you'll be giving yourself a Coronary being so sanctimonious.

I just don't think it's helpful to post opinions as facts. I don't particularly want to read them but I appreciate others might, so just adding a simple "in my opinion" might be helpful. Posts such as "we will have a second wave" is what I'm pulling him on. That's just an opinion, or a guess. In fact, there is early, tentative evidence to suggest otherwise.

The coronavirus is indeed a family of viruses. The influenza virus is not a member of that family.

[Grumps]

It’s become a common practice on this board, bully anyone of a thread who have a different view. It’s a real shame bullies drive people of threads but it appears that’s the new norm for the UK.

Rightly or wrongly I took it to be aimed at me, which make your comments 100% correct
Though I did ask the other week, when I was being called nasty things, is it possible to bully an anonymous person, I doubt it, but who knows?

[paulatky]

That is very true. I started off thinking that it was just another 'flue like virus' and that it wouldn't be a problem. I also thought that at the time it was only affecting a tiny proportion of the population I happily went along to the Spurs game on the 7th March.

It was a few days after that I realised that it was something much more serious. I started listening to the Chris Martenson talks on 'Peak Wealth'. Chris had been warning about the virus since January.

I think that a lot of people are terrified of going out whilst a lot of others are still in the 'no knowledge don't care it won't get me camp'. I am now extremely cautious but not scared, have a diet adjusted to keeping the immune system running and I have rough idea (or several rough ideas) of how and when it will end. If people don't accept reality they are likely to lunge from one disappointment to the next.

I agree entirely with what you say.

I re-aligned by hopes and aspirations for the short and medium term and hence my life at least 6 weeks before most other people, so nothing has come as a surprise or disappointment to me,

Many things have been better than I thought.
How local authorities have coped collecting refuse for one thing and how quickly we built the Nightingale hospitals.Also teens and young people observed the lockdown better than I expected for the 1st 5 weeks and many are still doing the sensible and responsible thing now

[Billy Balfour]

What about people who weren't furloughed?
I'm not trying to argue your point, it's just at times I wondered how they would police people like me, who worked full time throughout if caught doing unnecessary journeys

I see what you mean. Same for those who are retired. Heavy fines would be my answer. Community sentences, like social-distancing litter picking, for those who can't or won't pay. I know it sounds authoritarian, but it would make sure the R-rate stays as low as possible and therefore save more lives. I'm absolutely sick of the scenes of bellendery we've witnessed recently.

[bfcmik]

Around 1 person in 10 has now been tested. ALMOST every positive case in the last month has been either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms that were gone within 7 days. Hospital admissions for serious care are almost zero. Sadly, more people already infected will go on to die or be horribly affected. A testing rate of almost 200,000 per day (10 times higher than it was it April) is only identifying 27.5% of the number of new cases that were seen then. I don't know why and probably never will. Have we developed a sort of 'herd immunity' already? Has the virus lost some of it's power as it mutates? As more and more data emerges and is studied with an academic intensity rarely seen the numbers and analyses become ever more reflections of reality and less of the worst case scenario stuff that was so widespread in February, March and April

[bfcmik]

I see what you mean. Same for those who are retired. Heavy fines would be my answer. Community sentences, like social-distancing litter picking, for those who can't or won't pay. I know it sounds authoritarian, but it would make sure the R-rate stays as low as possible and therefore save more lives. I'm absolutely sick of the scenes of bellendery we've witnessed recently.

Most of those who can't or won't pay will not go community litter picking either! You're right it does sound very authoritarian and realistically unenforceable in a democratic country.

[Billy Balfour]

Most of those who can't or won't pay will not go community litter picking either! You're right it does sound very authoritarian and realistically unenforceable in a democratic country.

Anything can be enforced if the will is there, especially during a global pandemic. The fines could have started off at £500 instead of £50. There has always been consequences for none-payment.