Covid-19

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:54 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:26 pm
I just don't think it's helpful to post opinions as facts. I don't particularly want to read them but I appreciate others might, so just adding a simple "in my opinion" might be helpful. Posts such as "we will have a second wave" is what I'm pulling him on. That's just an opinion, or a guess. In fact, there is early, tentative evidence to suggest otherwise.

The coronavirus is indeed a family of viruses. The influenza virus is not a member of that family.
But why bully people off a thread who you don’t agree with. I respect your position to have a view.

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:56 pm

Grumps wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:26 pm
Rightly or wrongly I took it to be aimed at me, which make your comments 100% correct
Though I did ask the other week, when I was being called nasty things, is it possible to bully an anonymous person, I doubt it, but who knows?
We have locked horns before, but don’t think either of us have bullied the other.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Somethingfishy » Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:57 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:21 pm
It’s become a common practice on this board, bully anyone of a thread who have a different view. It’s a real shame bullies drive people of threads but it appears that’s the new norm for the UK.
It is quite often someone from the same gang of usual suspects too.

ksrclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:00 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:54 pm
But why bully people off a thread who you don’t agree with. I respect your position to have a view.
Not my intention to bully you off, apologies that it came across that way. Just appreciate that your view is just that, a view.

Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:04 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:54 pm
But why bully people off a thread who you don’t agree with. I respect your position to have a view.
People think its clever to bully

A few weeks ago someone called me a Nazi, the only reason was they didn't want me commenting on a thread
Several posters joined in with the back slapping, and congratulating the poster

I doubt he, or they, knew my family history, or what effect it would have on me calling me that, but sometimes people do need to stop and think.

I find it unbelievable that someone uses insults like that just to stop somebody posting on here.

I can be as sarcastic as the next person,but I would never stoop that low.i can only think this lockdown is making people behave in ways they wouldn't do normally

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:05 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:56 pm
We have locked horns before, but don’t think either of us have bullied the other.
Wasn't aimed at you, but the person who posted about the 50p bet

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:08 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:19 pm
That is very true. I started off thinking that it was just another 'flue like virus' and that it wouldn't be a problem. I also thought that at the time it was only affecting a tiny proportion of the population I happily went along to the Spurs game on the 7th March.

It was a few days after that I realised that it was something much more serious. I started listening to the Chris Martenson talks on 'Peak Wealth'. Chris had been warning about the virus since January.

I think that a lot of people are terrified of going out whilst a lot of others are still in the 'no knowledge don't care it won't get me camp'. I am now extremely cautious but not scared, have a diet adjusted to keeping the immune system running and I have rough idea (or several rough ideas) of how and when it will end. If people don't accept reality they are likely to lunge from one disappointment to the next.
I agree entirely with what you say.

I re-aligned by hopes and aspirations for the short and medium term and hence my life at least 6 weeks before most other people, so nothing has come as a surprise or disappointment to me,

Many things have been better than I thought.
How local authorities have coped collecting refuse for one thing and how quickly we built the Nightingale hospitals.Also teens and young people observed the lockdown better than I expected for the 1st 5 weeks and many are still doing the sensible and responsible thing now

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Re: Covid-19

Post by kentonclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:10 pm

Having been prescribed diuretic tablets as part of my medication to treat high blood pressure/atrial fibrillation I have found that the major problem has resulted from the closure of all public toilet facilities. If I have to go out during the morning I have found myself delaying taking the medication until I return home. Obviously I am not alone in encountering this problem, an article in last week's Guardian reported that many people were leaving home dehydrated leading to kidney problems and Public Health issues. The article also reported that the stench of urine pervades the air in many parks and open spaces.

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:12 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:00 pm
Not my intention to bully you off, apologies that it came across that way. Just appreciate that your view is just that, a view.
Yes but you need to be careful , your post came very much across as I am not allowed to have a view if it’s not the same as yours.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:15 pm

Grumps wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:04 pm
People think its clever to bully

A few weeks ago someone called me a Nazi, the only reason was they didn't want me commenting on a thread
Several posters joined in with the back slapping, and congratulating the poster

I doubt he, or they, knew my family history, or what effect it would have on me calling me that, but sometimes people do need to stop and think.

I find it unbelievable that someone uses insults like that just to stop somebody posting on here.

I can be as sarcastic as the next person,but I would never stoop that low.i can only think this lockdown is making people behave in ways they wouldn't do normally
Maybe Grumps you have got on the wrong side of many people,it certainly appears that way.
L

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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:18 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:12 pm
Yes but you need to be careful , your post came very much across as I am not allowed to have a view if it’s not the same as yours.
Having had it quoted back at me I realise that, and I apologise. I just find this whole situation tough enough without seeing people proclaiming we’re doomed when there is no evidence at all to back it up. I do honestly respect your view if you think that, but it’s not a certainty.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:21 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:15 pm
Maybe Grumps you have got on the wrong side of many people,it certainly appears that way.
L
So have you,but I wouldn't call you that.

Perhaps you think it's OK..

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Duffer_ » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:37 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:08 pm
Many things have been better than I thought...Also teens and young people observed the lockdown better than I expected for the 1st 5 weeks and many are still doing the sensible and responsible thing now
That is a really good point. Remembering that there have been only 18 hospital deaths for the U20s to date. That is not to downplay the tragedies faced by those 18 families. The restraint shown by the vast majority of the younger generation, who could have been forgiven for dismissing it as an old person's virus, is to their absolute credit.

I hope these sacrifices are remembered by the older generations when the reckoning comes.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:40 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:11 pm
Anyone could have predicted the police killing of a black man. Er it happens most months in the US.
I said lawlessness in general,
The George Floyd killing has been the catalyst for all that pent up anger and agression.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:47 pm

Grumps wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:04 pm
People think its clever to bully

A few weeks ago someone called me a Nazi, the only reason was they didn't want me commenting on a thread
Several posters joined in with the back slapping, and congratulating the poster

I doubt he, or they, knew my family history, or what effect it would have on me calling me that, but sometimes people do need to stop and think.

I find it unbelievable that someone uses insults like that just to stop somebody posting on here.

I can be as sarcastic as the next person,but I would never stoop that low.i can only think this lockdown is making people behave in ways they wouldn't do normally
Someone being called a Nazi on here with no proper reason is nothing new, I've had it thrown at me once by some dickhead and the same back slapping went on.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:51 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:40 pm
I said lawlessness in general,
The George Floyd killing has been the catalyst for all that pent up anger and agression.
Why was Floyd the catalyst and no one else before him?

Since Rodney King things have gotten worse or stayed the same in various areas across the USA.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:05 pm

For me it was the fact it was recorded, the cop to me seemed to carry on in defiance of the camera on him, like he had the right to do what he did.
Wrong that was murder in anyone’s book, wrong on every level.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:06 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:42 pm
Hi Underseige ,have you any comments on that r (t) graph I posted around lunchtime today.
I dont understand it.
Maybe there is someone who is educated with or works with statistics on here that can explain it better but i'll have a go.

We have r(0) and r(t).

r(0) refers to the rate at which the virus will spread in a population assuming that no one in the population has had the virus before and no one is immune. In such a population, if the r(0) is 1 each person who gets it transfers it to one other person. If it is 2, each person who gets it spreads it to 2 other people and so on.

r(t) doesn't assume that no one in the population has had the virus before and no one is immune.. It is an attempt of a 'real world' or 'real time' measurement. In the real world there could be factors that lower the transmission rate such as:
  • Social distancing measures are introduced
  • Mask wearing is introduced.
  • Lockdown is imposed
  • A number of people contract and recover from the virus and are then immune.
r(t) takes these factors into account.
For example, looking at the 'London Graph' in your post. The r(t) is at it's highest around the 11th -15th March just before the lockdown. In the week prior to this, sporting events and pop concerts were taking place at the same time that the virus was being brought into the country from places like Italy.

Measures then started to be brought in and the number of cases was still relatively low. By the 23rd March full lockdown was imposed. As measures were imposed the London graph begins to fall. It then stays level up until 12th April which is as far as the graph goes. During this time lockdown is keeping the r(t) transmission rate low.

Basically the London graph shows that real transmission rates were high in mid March but came down once measures were introduced and lockdown was imposed.

The thing that I don't understand from your graph is that r(t) goes negative. This doesn't make sense. You could expect it to come down from perhaps 2 to 0.3 or something similar but the negative figure doesn't look right. Perhaps someone with a better understanding can explain.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:19 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:46 pm
There should have been real financial consequences for breaking the lockdown rules while being paid 80% for supposedly being at home. Forfeiting 50% of the furlough money for the first offence would have been a start. It's not much to ask when picking up 80% of your wages doing nowt.
I would have given each person a token (perhaps in digital form) at the start of the lockdown. The token would allow individuals to have access to all of the 'Lockdown benefits' such as 'furlough pay', 'business loans and grants' etc. It would also enable the citizen to have first priority to treatment from the NHS for COVID-19 illness.

Should a citizen break the rules (perhaps on a second warning) the token would be removed for a defined period (depending on what the breach was). The citizen then would no longer get any of the COVID-19 specific benefits and would go to the back of the queue for access to NHS treatment should an hospital need to ration resources.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:23 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:06 pm
Maybe there is someone who is educated with or works with statistics on here that can explain it better but i'll have a go.

We have r(0) and r(t).

r(0) refers to the rate at which the virus will spread in a population assuming that no one in the population has had the virus before and no one is immune. In such a popul uh ation, if the r(0) is 1 each person who gets it transfers it to one other person. If it is 2, each person who gets it spreads it to 2 other people and so on.

r(t) doesn't assume that no one in the population has had the virus before and no one is immune.. It is an attempt of a 'real world' or 'real time' measurement. In the real world there could be factors that lower the transmission rate such as:
  • Social distancing measures are introduced
  • Mask wearing is introduced.
  • Lockdown is imposed
  • A number of people contract and recover from the virus and are then immune.
r(t) takes these factors into account.
For example, looking at the 'London Graph' in your post. The r(t) is at it's highest around the 11th -15th March just before the lockdown. In the week prior to this, sporting events and pop concerts were taking place at the same time that the virus was being brought into the country from places like Italy.

Measures then started to be brought in and the number of cases was still relatively low. By the 23rd March full lockdown was imposed. As measures were imposed the London graph begins to fall. It then stays level up until 12th April which is as far as the graph goes. During this time lockdown is keeping the r(t) transmission rate low.

Basically the London graph shows that real transmission rates were high in mid March but came down once measures were introduced and lockdown was imposed.

The thing that I don't understand from your graph is that r(t) goes negative. This doesn't make sense. You could expect it to come down from perhaps 2 to 0.3 or something similar but the negative figure doesn't look right. Perhaps someone with a better understanding can explain.
On the graphs I took the base r(t) to be 1 , and on the graph that base rate of 1 is measured on the line which is zero. So that when the graph goes negative it means r (t) has fallen below I.

For most areas the r (t) is not much lower on the 10th April than it was on 23rd March which to me suggests lockdown did nothing to reduce r (t)in those 1st 3 weeks of lockdown which in my opinion cant be right

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:08 pm
Yes hindsight is great, but some of us were saying this before this all happened.
Now I am telling you of the on coming economic impact.

Same is happening, oh well.
There is bound to be an economic impact to all this. It's already started. Let's hope that government policy doesn't make it worst.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:40 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:16 pm
The modelling showed up to 500,000 deaths with no lock down.

The gov said a good outcome would be 20,000 deaths with a lockdown.
I said with lockdown light we would have 50 to 70 k deaths, just about where we are.

This second wave could see us hit 250,000, but think it will be less but not by many.
A second wave cannot be predicted. In order for a second wave to take place the virus would have to transmute and attack a different cohort of the population.

I think that Lowbankclaret is predicting is a 'second spike', a 'second peak' or a resurgence of the first wave. That is highly possible unless the virus transmutes to a weaker form (as claimed by the Italian Doctor last week) or a vaccine becomes available.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:20 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:23 pm
On the graphs I took the base r(t) to be 1 , and on the graph that base rate of 1 is measured on the line which is zero. So that when the graph goes negative it means r (t) has fallen below I.

For most areas the r (t) is not much lower on the 10th April than it was on 23rd March which to me suggests lockdown did nothing to reduce r (t)in those 1st 3 weeks of lockdown which in my opinion cant be right
Apologies I have only had a brief look at earlier posts, but my understanding is that Rt cannot be below zero and the above interpretation makes sense. Note - while I work with health stats I’m not an epidemiologist and this is their field not mine.

The below link does a lot of the PHE modelling and it shows Rt, under “Infection and Deaths” tab “Rt” it shows the change over time.

It shows the Rt as being very close to 1 indeed and rising which isn’t great news.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:02 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:40 pm
A second wave cannot be predicted. In order for a second wave to take place the virus would have to transmute and attack a different cohort of the population.

I think that Lowbankclaret is predicting is a 'second spike', a 'second peak' or a resurgence of the first wave. That is highly possible unless the virus transmutes to a weaker form (as claimed by the Italian Doctor last week) or a vaccine becomes available.
And the second spike has already been widely predicted for the VE Day celebrations, though it didn't happen, and predicted again for the Bank Holiday beach outings, and it didn't happen that time either. Now it's being predicted again for the various demos and riots, and I suppose there's a chance that it might happen this time - though the odds appear to be against.

I think the USA lifted lockdown at a relatively earlier stage than us and so the virus hadn't reached the "naturally declining" stage yet.

dsr
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:19 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:20 pm
Apologies I have only had a brief look at earlier posts, but my understanding is that Rt cannot be below zero and the above interpretation makes sense. Note - while I work with health stats I’m not an epidemiologist and this is their field not mine.

The below link does a lot of the PHE modelling and it shows Rt, under “Infection and Deaths” tab “Rt” it shows the change over time.

It shows the Rt as being very close to 1 indeed and rising which isn’t great news.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
That report was published on 5th June, and predicted that number of cases would stay about the same and that death rates would be steady or rising by mid-June. It is now mid-June and the number of cases has halved and the death rate continues to fall.

Ergo, that prediction was wrong and need not be worried about.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:10 am

I want to apologise for my miss placed banter yesterday which was understood to be "bullying".

The first post below was because I saw people beginning to put doom and gloom posts on the thread and others were responding to them. One thing I dont like on this thread is the "mightier than thou" attitude by some contributors who appear to revel in "I told you so" posts, and this first post was in response to them. I do think I have posted similar previously in good jest and it was received as intended, as a bit of banter.
Zlatan wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:55 pm
Own up, who put 50p in the dickhead again...?
For the record - Grumps it was not aimed at you or anyone specific; for those offended - if the cap fits...

The second post by me a few minutes later was to highlight the light hearted intent of my first post, and it appears that some took it that way and other did not. Ah well.
Zlatan wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:01 pm
Couple of nibbles I see :)

At one point we were all quite civil on this thread, we need to go back to that :)
I would like to point out that one of the posters (who ironically has spouted about bullying following my 50p post yesterday) was one of the main protagonists who has openly admitted trolling me on this very thread to get a response, and I have questioned their actions previously and I dont think I have had an apology from them, which is a measure of the person involved.

I can take banter;
I cant take bad news;
I can take serious discussion about this virus;
I can take being wrong about things;
I can admit I'm wrong about things if I am wrong;

What I refuse to take is hypocrisy of the highest order, especially from certain posters who behave as is they are beyond reproach and yet have contributed so much of the utter crap that this thread has seen including massively disingenuous information in the early days of the crisis which was dangerous and inflammatory; posting under multiple user names to garner "support"; and the trolling of other users whilst using multiple accounts; and now returning to the thread to spout on about bullying when they have been guilty of just that previously and admitted it.

Like I said above in the second of my lighthearted posts "At one point we were all quite civil on this thread, we need to go back to that :)"

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:37 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:19 am
That report was published on 5th June, and predicted that number of cases would stay about the same and that death rates would be steady or rising by mid-June. It is now mid-June and the number of cases has halved and the death rate continues to fall.

Ergo, that prediction was wrong and need not be worried about.
The report said that daily deaths would be in the range of 100-250 by mid June , which they are when you take account of the weekend affect

It said the death rate r(t) , not the absolute number of deaths, would rise slightly by the middle of June.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:47 am

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:10 am
I want to apologise for my miss placed banter yesterday which was understood to be "bullying".

The first post below was because I saw people beginning to put doom and gloom posts on the thread and others were responding to them. One thing I dont like on this thread is the "mightier than thou" attitude by some contributors who appear to revel in "I told you so" posts, and this first post was in response to them. I do think I have posted similar previously in good jest and it was received as intended, as a bit of banter.



For the record - Grumps it was not aimed at you or anyone specific; for those offended - if the cap fits...

The second post by me a few minutes later was to highlight the light hearted intent of my first post, and it appears that some took it that way and other did not. Ah well.



I would like to point out that one of the posters (who ironically has spouted about bullying following my 50p post yesterday) was one of the main protagonists who has openly admitted trolling me on this very thread to get a response, and I have questioned their actions previously and I dont think I have had an apology from them, which is a measure of the person involved.

I can take banter;
I cant take bad news;
I can take serious discussion about this virus;
I can take being wrong about things;
I can admit I'm wrong about things if I am wrong;

What I refuse to take is hypocrisy of the highest order, especially from certain posters who behave as is they are beyond reproach and yet have contributed so much of the utter crap that this thread has seen including massively disingenuous information in the early days of the crisis which was dangerous and inflammatory; posting under multiple user names to garner "support"; and the trolling of other users whilst using multiple accounts; and now returning to the thread to spout on about bullying when they have been guilty of just that previously and admitted it.

Like I said above in the second of my lighthearted posts "At one point we were all quite civil on this thread, we need to go back to that :)"
A lot of irony in your post.

You got it badly wrong in your initial assessment of the seriousness of covid-19 and seem to have a chip on your shoulder about that select group of us who had the foresight to judge it more correctly overall.

Get over it and it was your 50p post yesterday that turned the tide in the nature of the comments.

I didnt post last week as nothing really to add but tried over the weekend to have a sensible debate with Undersiege who in my opinion understands what the real issues are,

I am not surprised that sensible conversation was interrupted by you and Grumps ,as you two have so little original thoughts to add. Just backbite all the time at others.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:02 am

paulatky wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:37 am
The report said that daily deaths would be in the range of 100-250 by mid June , which they are when you take account of the weekend affect

It said the death rate r(t) , not the absolute number of deaths, would rise slightly by the middle of June.
"There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June"

I'm fairly sure that is saying that the number of deaths per day will decline by mid-June, not just the r(t) number. The r(t) number is a measure of expected reproduction, not expected death.

Current daily 7-day rolling death average = 165, so they're right there, but that's basically based on the number of infections pre-existing at the time of the report so it's an easier sum. But if the r(t) number is 1, then the number of cases shouldn't be declining, and that's where their prediction proved too pessimistic.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:05 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:02 am
And the second spike has already been widely predicted for the VE Day celebrations, though it didn't happen, and predicted again for the Bank Holiday beach outings, and it didn't happen that time either. Now it's being predicted again for the various demos and riots, and I suppose there's a chance that it might happen this time - though the odds appear to be against.

I think the USA lifted lockdown at a relatively earlier stage than us and so the virus hadn't reached the "naturally declining" stage yet.
For a Second Spike
  • Texas lifted lockdown gradually starting at the end of April. They are now well on their way to 'second spike'. California lifted lockdown early and cases kept going up throughout the whole period 'in and out' of lockdown. In all, 20 US states are still experiencing rising cases.
    "The Honeybadger deserves better respect. Covid-19 On The Rise In 20+ States"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7mshxhMHBY
  • Iran are having a second spike.
Against A Second Spike
  • There is a good chance of a vaccine being availble sometime in the fourth quarter of this year.
  • Many governments are easing out of lockdown. Are they not expecting a second spike or are thet just desperate to get the economy going? They might be making a very costly mistake.
  • Possibility that the virus is becoming weaker. If this is not the case a second spike is almost inevitable.
  • Countries such as France, Germany and Italy not experiencing rising cases yet.
Neutral
  • Expect the unexpected.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:14 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:02 am
"There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June"

I'm fairly sure that is saying that the number of deaths per day will decline by mid-June, not just the r(t) number. The r(t) number is a measure of expected reproduction, not expected death.

Current daily 7-day rolling death average = 165, so they're right there, but that's basically based on the number of infections pre-existing at the time of the report so it's an easier sum. But if the r(t) number is 1, then the number of cases shouldn't be declining, and that's where their prediction proved too pessimistic.
There will be an 18 day delay between the r rate climbing above one in certain areas and a corresponding increase in the number of deaths in that area.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:20 am

paulatky wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:14 am
There will be an 18 day delay between the r rate climbing above one in certain areas and a corresponding increase in the number of deaths in that area.
Correct. That's why they were able to get the deaths figure correct, I should think - they were using historical data. But for number of cases, the r rate will filter through much faster, and if the r rate is around 1, the number of new cases wouldn't be dropping.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:28 pm

dsr wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:02 am
"There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June"

I'm fairly sure that is saying that the number of deaths per day will decline by mid-June, not just the r(t) number. The r(t) number is a measure of expected reproduction, not expected death.

Current daily 7-day rolling death average = 165, so they're right there, but that's basically based on the number of infections pre-existing at the time of the report so it's an easier sum. But if the r(t) number is 1, then the number of cases shouldn't be declining, and that's where their prediction proved too pessimistic.
They are saying that the decreasing death rate will flatten out and we will reach a point where the deaths steadily continue at the same level (i.e. the decline which we see now will be arrested, to use their language).

So in other words, relaxing the rules will cost more lives due to the Rt rate moving back to 1 and the deaths curve therefore not diminishing (a week or two behind). But if these remain in the 100-250 per day range that they forecast it won’t be too different to normal summer UK mortality numbers and thus can’t be something to stay in lockdown for (a political decision, bearing in mind economic and social impacts too). I think that’s the theory, and it seems credible,
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:50 pm

June 13th
Prime Minister @10downing Street -
"Coronavirus thrives on mass gatherings."

March 16th
Health Secretary when questioned on Cheltenham and Liverpool vs Atletico
"The risks of transmission at 'mass gatherings' are relatively low."

Any wonder why this shower of a government is overseeing one of the worst death tolls in the world.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Leisure » Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:55 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:50 pm
June 13th
Prime Minister @10downing Street -
"Coronavirus thrives on mass gatherings."

March 16th
Health Secretary when questioned on Cheltenham and Liverpool vs Atletico
"The risks of transmission at 'mass gatherings' are relatively low."

Any wonder why this shower of a government is overseeing one of the worst death tolls in the world.
I'm sure that they'll say that they're just following the science! ;) ;) ;)

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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:06 pm

Just looking at pictures of the queues outside shops open for the first time in three months; Primark, Nike, Sports Direct to name a few. What a nightmare! It’ll be a long time before I’ll be setting foot in a shop.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:29 pm

Leisure wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:55 pm
I'm sure that they'll say that they're just following the science! ;) ;) ;)

Could be onto something there. Our Chief medical officer would be taking on board the opinion of the World Health Organisation.

On 11 March a pandemic was declared by the WHO. By this time, 114 countries had reported cases!

the WHO declared on the 3rd of March 2020

"However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.


Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days"


Wont stop the flock of history rewriters on here , trying to airbrush the truth out.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:32 pm

How many on here who want to rewrite the fact that when we played Spurs, for the vast vast majority who were on that day, like the country at large. Coronavirus was something bad happening in Italy. ?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Swizzlestick » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:32 pm

Oh for god’s sake.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:32 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:28 pm
They are saying that the decreasing death rate will flatten out and we will reach a point where the deaths steadily continue at the same level (i.e. the decline which we see now will be arrested, to use their language).

So in other words, relaxing the rules will cost more lives due to the Rt rate moving back to 1 and the deaths curve therefore not diminishing (a week or two behind). But if these remain in the 100-250 per day range that they forecast it won’t be too different to normal summer UK mortality numbers and thus can’t be something to stay in lockdown for (a political decision, bearing in mind economic and social impacts too). I think that’s the theory, and it seems credible,
But the overall death toll will be twice the normal numbers,so you have double the chance of dying. Normal + extra covid-19 deaths

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Zlatan » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:37 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:32 pm
How many on here who want to rewrite the fact that when we played Spurs, for the vast vast majority who were on that day, like the country at large. Coronavirus was something bad happening in Italy. ?
I’m not going to rewrite anything, but I do know that I did not attend the match on advice from my consultant.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:38 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:32 pm
How many on here who want to rewrite the fact that when we played Spurs, for the vast vast majority who were on that day, like the country at large. Coronavirus was something bad happening in Italy. ?
Not for me it wasnt.
We gave the Spurs game a wide berth.
Its called foresight. Look at the facts and make a logical conclusion. There was talk before the Spurs game that over 70’s might be barred from attending.
The Spurs game was on 7th March and if lockdown had been implented on the following Monday the 9th upto 35,000 deaths could have been prevented,

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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:39 pm

I’m not sure what this truth is that we’re trying to ‘airbrush out’.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by aggi » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:00 pm

martin_p wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:39 pm
I’m not sure what this truth is that we’re trying to ‘airbrush out’.
I'm pretty sure it's written on a statue.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:04 pm

In years to come the spurs game will become the opposite of the orient game
Thousands claiming they weren't there!
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:35 pm

Good news to report.

In Northern Ireland, the Department of Health has recorded no new deaths linked to Covid-19 since yesterday.

In Scotland, no deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19 have been registered in the past 24 hours, the third time the figure has remained the same since lockdown began.

I know good news isn't in vogue, but these figures from the devolved nations have been very low, or zero for about a week now, surely that's a positive to celebrate.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:41 pm

I know I caught the mid day train from Euston to Manchester on the 7th March and another train to Manchester airport, had late lunch with my family and was wonderful to have some time with them all, especially the Grandchildren. I know WHO had not issued a pandemic warning, I know I was asked to go to Cheltenham, which was something I always wanted to do but said no because of the virus.

I flew Singapore airlines from Man to Houston, plane less than half empty yet I was worried the whole flight and did thing in terms of cleanliness I would never normally do on a flight.

I am also sure certain posters on here were still talking about it being a flu issue, perhaps a bad one but......... Some were even talking about holidays and the chance to get away in summer, those days the discussions on this thread were very different yet people taking sides and making predictions and calling names, so in many ways nothing has changed.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jrgbfc » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:02 pm

Looks like the seafood company have gone bust. Locally they run pubs like the Alma at Laneshaw Bridge, the Forest at Fence and I think the Barley Mow is theirs as well. Worrying times to come with the economy I think. I'm not sure many people will fancy taking on pubs/restaurants in the current climate, even popular one's that seemed to be doing well.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:09 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:02 pm
Looks like the seafood company have gone bust. Locally they run pubs like the Alma at Laneshaw Bridge, the Forest at Fence and I think the Barley Mow is theirs as well. Worrying times to come with the economy I think. I'm not sure many people will fancy taking on pubs/restaurants in the current climate, even popular one's that seemed to be doing well.
I agree but trying to look on the bright side, there will be some opportunities for some to fill the gap and they will make the leap, perhaps due to being out of work and they would never have made the decision, potential areas but definitely a risky one. Going to be quite a few more go this way I think during the rest of this year.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by paulatky » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:11 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:02 pm
Looks like the seafood company have gone bust. Locally they run pubs like the Alma at Laneshaw Bridge, the Forest at Fence and I think the Barley Mow is theirs as well. Worrying times to come with the economy I think. I'm not sure many people will fancy taking on pubs/restaurants in the current climate, even popular one's that seemed to be doing well.
The real crunch will come when the furlough scheme comes to an end .
At present upto 9 million workers are being supported by the Government.

Unfortunately, however sad it is, business closures should not come as a surprise to anyone.
Flybe was one of the 1st casualties back at the very beginning of March.

Locked