It could be worst in the future if the Civil Service recruits graduates from top universities with useless degrees. We could have a country being run by 'food historians', 'liberal artists', 'culinary artists', 'Media and Communications experts' and goodness knows what else. There's even a 'David Beckham studies degree' at Staffordshire University.dsr wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:27 pmI do wonder what the role of the Civil Service and the PHE was in this. Were they staffed with experts who said it could be done, Mr. Hancock, we will do it? Or with experts who said don't do it, Mr. Hancock, we can't do this and it will be rubbish? Or with a total lack of experts who told Mr. Hancock that he was on his own because they're unable to help?
Hancock may well be incompetent. But he is certainly backed up by a lorry load of incompetence behind him. Can you imagine the Army making such a botch of things in any sort of field, regardless of what a wally the Armed Forces minister may be? No, because the Army is competent. This crisis has shown us what a load of overpaid uselessness we have in the upper echelons of this country - civil servants as well as ministers.
Covid-19
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Re: Covid-19
Re: Covid-19
Sorry to hear about your job Lowbank, hopefully things will pick up soon and jobs will come back.
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Re: Covid-19
It is important. It is being played down so that the potential 'life threatening, economy destroying failure' is downgraded to a 'nice to have feature' in the fight against the virus rather than a 'critical weapon'. We are now supposed to think "Oh well, we didn't really need it anyway- the government know what they are doing".AndrewJB wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:04 amSuch a huge quantity of bullsh1t from the government. The app is said to be really important and “world beating” - whatever that means - and now the app is no longer important? Okay, it doesn’t work, but having an app isn’t important why, when we’re unraveling lockdown? It makes no sense at all. Hancock claims we’ve always been looking at two apps, but that goes against what they said, and if we were, why haven’t we got it in testing already? It’s just nonsense.
They did the same thing with face masks. Back in March there was a dire shortage of PPI in the country. Face masks are a proven way of reducing the spread of the virus as long as everyone wears them. Together with 'social distancing' and 'stringent personal hygene' face coverings can reduce the spread of the virus considerably and minimise the requirement of lockdown.
The government should have admitted the shortage and explained the situation. They could then have put out a series of broadcasts showing people how they could make their own face coverings or use non medical face coverings such as DIY masks or bandanas. Instead they put out a message that "um ah face masks don't work very well urm and the virus can get round the outside of the urm mask".All face coverings without an outlet valve reduce the forward distance of a deep exhale by at least 90%, according to the study led by engineers at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/202005 ... ral-spread
We now have a situation in which two of the the most important tools against 'virus threat' have been downplayed and under utilised. 'Track and Trace App' and 'Face Masks'. These two things, along with social distancing and hygiene could have saved lives and prevented lockdown.
Re: Covid-19
No. The point of that app is that the processing and warnings is done on the phones. There's no processing by the NHS.Grumps wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:06 amIt has to send the info to NHS who then process it, and send out the warnings to people, again Via the app, so there has to be some integration somehow
They also said if the result came back positive you would be able to book a test via the app, that would also need integration with NHS systems.
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Re: Covid-19
This user liked this post: paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus
In that particular case even though the virus plays a massive part, you actually get paid whilst the planes are airborne on maintenance packages, some of that work I think will be outsourced to Singapore.
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Re: Covid-19
I gave up posting on this quite a while ago due to all of the confused statements. Sad to say the info is still ‘noise’. Why on earth we still don’t have specific details on local hot spots is beyond me. Don’t need an app for that - just results of tests!!!
No good to anyone to know what the ‘figures’ are in their own massive area ie Derbys to Scotland.
Won’t say any more, other than that the whole approach has been amateurish at best, and capitalistic at worst.
No good to anyone to know what the ‘figures’ are in their own massive area ie Derbys to Scotland.
Won’t say any more, other than that the whole approach has been amateurish at best, and capitalistic at worst.
Re: Covid-19
Looks like the Apple Covid-19 tracker is automatically installed to iPhones with the latest update from Apple in anticipation of any government app...
Check yours if you have one - Settings-Privacy-Health is where it is located.
Check yours if you have one - Settings-Privacy-Health is where it is located.
Re: Covid-19
Thanks for your well thought out reply, go and play with your friendsDevils_Advocate wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:46 pmGrumps versus technology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFqxdvggAxM
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Re: Covid-19
Now now, I think we all like to have a little light-hearted fun from time to time.
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Re: Covid-19
They have such products in Bangladesh. There are websites from which people can check their own town/region with warnings of outbreaks (e.g. hospital admissions/positive test cases).jackmiggins wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:09 pmI gave up posting on this quite a while ago due to all of the confused statements. Sad to say the info is still ‘noise’. Why on earth we still don’t have specific details on local hot spots is beyond me. Don’t need an app for that - just results of tests!!!
No good to anyone to know what the ‘figures’ are in their own massive area ie Derbys to Scotland.
Won’t say any more, other than that the whole approach has been amateurish at best, and capitalistic at worst.
We could have something similar in the UK. It would be a bit like the 'Hay Fever warning' after the weather forecast on TV. There could also be pages on Websites such as the BBC where people could look up the infections rate for their own towns. Warnings on regional news programmes on both TV and radio could also be issued in a similar way that we currently issue traffic news.
Re: Covid-19
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-d ... 35168.html
Who knows ?
More vaccine news
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gsk-quest-bes ... 14093.html
Who knows ?
More vaccine news
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gsk-quest-bes ... 14093.html
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Re: Covid-19
Death rate rolling 7 day average continues to drop by just over 25% per week (131 as of today down from 181 last Sat), hospital admissions down despite over 1 in 9 people having been tested and a stubbornly high positive test number, people needing ICU support reducing, the all cause death rate staying within seasonal norms since June 4th. All these are positive indicators that things may be getting back to the times when bacteria and viruses were things to be concerned about rather than worried or frightened about.
Not the end of the war against Covid19, maybe not even the beginning of the end, but certainly well into the end of the beginning of the fight (last sentence based on a famous wartime speech following the Battle of El Alamein).
Not the end of the war against Covid19, maybe not even the beginning of the end, but certainly well into the end of the beginning of the fight (last sentence based on a famous wartime speech following the Battle of El Alamein).
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Re: Covid-19
To add to the good news.
Coronavirus: No new cases in NI for first time since lockdownhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern- ... -53122657
Coronavirus: Spain to allow UK tourists without quarantinehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53122825
Coronavirus: No new cases in NI for first time since lockdownhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern- ... -53122657
Coronavirus: Spain to allow UK tourists without quarantinehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53122825
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Re: Covid-19
Germany R number up to 1.79.
Re: Covid-19
Hopefully their track and trace system will halt the rise
Re: Covid-19
I don't think these R numbers are really relevant datasets any more. As infections decrease any new and small outbreaks can push it right up again.
If you've got an effective track and trace system in place, within a day the R number can be back below 1 if the infected people isolate.
If you've got an effective track and trace system in place, within a day the R number can be back below 1 if the infected people isolate.
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Re: Covid-19
This time last week it looked like the number of Cases in Spain were on the rise again. However, I think that the 'Jury is still out''. The previous week new cases in Spain rose from167 to 502 over just five days. Since then they have fallen back down to 181 before rising again to 585. Lets hope that the figures are just 'bumping along the bottom'.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/
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Re: Covid-19
Who knows whether the viral load is falling? It's difficult to tell. We should get a better picture in the second half of July. There has been a lot of potential 'virus spreading activity recently' (Protests, seasides, return to work on public transport etc.). If the 'case rate' hasn't taken off again by then it will look like something is happening to it.bfcjg wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:57 pmhttps://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-d ... 35168.html
Who knows ?
More vaccine news
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/gsk-quest-bes ... 14093.html
I think that any successful vaccine will be very welcome whether it's an early rushed one or a vaccine that has been developed along 'tried and trusted methods' and takes longer.
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Re: Covid-19
I like devils Advocate, winds folk up, makes some great points but can take it back when he gets challenged!
This user liked this post: evensteadiereddie
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Re: Covid-19
Daily Cases starting to show tentative signs of increasing in several countries following lockdown releases a few weeks ago
Germany Daily cases on June 1st: 271.....Rose to 1,122 by June 17th.....Latest: 556
France....Daily cases on June 1st: 338.....Rose to 726 by June 12th.......Latest: 641
Sweden...Daily cases on June 1st: 644.....Rose to 1,487 by June 10th.....Latest: 1,481
"In South Korea, outbreaks have inspired second-guessing on whether officials were too quick to ease social distancing guidelines in April after a first wave of infections waned. Officials reported 49 cases on Friday as the virus continued to spread in the densely populated capital area of Seoul, where half of its 51 million people live. About 30 to 50 new cases have been confirmed per day since late May".
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... month.html
I guess we are about to see how good these 'track and trace apps' are. Korea already use one. Japan and Germany both released theirs last week based on Apple and Google technology (similar to the one that the UK might err umm eventually release in the winter).
Germany Daily cases on June 1st: 271.....Rose to 1,122 by June 17th.....Latest: 556
France....Daily cases on June 1st: 338.....Rose to 726 by June 12th.......Latest: 641
Sweden...Daily cases on June 1st: 644.....Rose to 1,487 by June 10th.....Latest: 1,481
"In South Korea, outbreaks have inspired second-guessing on whether officials were too quick to ease social distancing guidelines in April after a first wave of infections waned. Officials reported 49 cases on Friday as the virus continued to spread in the densely populated capital area of Seoul, where half of its 51 million people live. About 30 to 50 new cases have been confirmed per day since late May".
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... month.html
I guess we are about to see how good these 'track and trace apps' are. Korea already use one. Japan and Germany both released theirs last week based on Apple and Google technology (similar to the one that the UK might err umm eventually release in the winter).
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Re: Covid-19
Positive signs in the latest Scottish figures.
No new recorded deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland
Latest figures published by the Scottish government reveal that 18,156 people have tested positive for Covid-19, an increase of 26 from yesterday.
There were 801 people in hospital last night (down 32), with 518 confirmed cases and 283 suspected. There are 16 people in intensive care, an increase of two.
No further deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19 have been recorded, meaning the total in Scotland, by that measure, remains at 2,472 deaths.
3,976 people have been discharged from hospital after receiving treatment for the virus since 5 March.
Of course the weekend's tend to see lower fatalities reported, but even so it's encouraging to see zero deaths again.
No new recorded deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland
Latest figures published by the Scottish government reveal that 18,156 people have tested positive for Covid-19, an increase of 26 from yesterday.
There were 801 people in hospital last night (down 32), with 518 confirmed cases and 283 suspected. There are 16 people in intensive care, an increase of two.
No further deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19 have been recorded, meaning the total in Scotland, by that measure, remains at 2,472 deaths.
3,976 people have been discharged from hospital after receiving treatment for the virus since 5 March.
Of course the weekend's tend to see lower fatalities reported, but even so it's encouraging to see zero deaths again.
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Re: Covid-19
Sweden's Herd Immunity Policy - has it worked?
% required for Herd Immunity 50% - 90%
% currently immune 7.3%
No lockdown, minimum PPI.
Population: 10 million
Daily Cases peaked at 1,487
April 1st 486
May 1st. 532
June 1st 644
Now......1,481
Daily Deaths peaked at 185
April 1st. 59
May 1st.. 67
June 1st.. 8
Now......102
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okGcPgKllkk
% required for Herd Immunity 50% - 90%
% currently immune 7.3%
No lockdown, minimum PPI.
Population: 10 million
Daily Cases peaked at 1,487
April 1st 486
May 1st. 532
June 1st 644
Now......1,481
Daily Deaths peaked at 185
April 1st. 59
May 1st.. 67
June 1st.. 8
Now......102
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okGcPgKllkk
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Re: Covid-19
Thankyou, I am going to retire, it’s 3-4 years before I intended and will not be the retirement I intended but the Company has made it crystal clear.
Your working hours per week are going to go up, your going to have a 10% pay cut. Which will be A bigger % per hour. Removal of shift pay.
Getting rid of the final salary pension scheme.
So basically I could stay, unlikely to made redundant on a matrix selection. Work longer hours for less and then try to retire in 4-5 years on less money than I can today.
I feel for the workers with kids who will have no choice and end up redundant. It’s those I feel for.
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Re: Coronavirus
The company have forced my hand. As I have just said they are screw the workers over.
I forgot to put, the redundancy package will also halve.
I did want to work for another few years but the company have made it a no brainier to go now.
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Re: Coronavirus
Barnoldswick don’t do maintenance so it’s not quite as you say. Barlick manufacture new parts.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:52 pmIn that particular case even though the virus plays a massive part, you actually get paid whilst the planes are airborne on maintenance packages, some of that work I think will be outsourced to Singapore.
You are correct RR is paid by hours flown. Last presentation I saw, flying hours were down 88%. The 12% of hours flown airlines were refusing to pay as they could not afford it. So money coming in is Nil, Zero, Nada, **** all.
Hence 30% of the work force have to go now!
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Re: Covid-19
Holy ****!
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Re: Covid-19
Just come up as it’s now 2.88 in Germany. Pants
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Re: Coronavirus
Exactly, euravia & other do the servicing, the maintenance packages are sourced elsewhere, whichever way you look at it, the planes & everything else which entails the demand isn't there & will be substantially reduced for the foreseeable future. There's over 200 to go from barnoldswick from a workforce of 700+ & at the moment it's VS & then compulsory redundancies.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:34 pmBarnoldswick don’t do maintenance so it’s not quite as you say. Barlick manufacture new parts.
You are correct RR is paid by hours flown. Last presentation I saw, flying hours were down 88%. The 12% of hours flown airlines were refusing to pay as they could not afford it. So money coming in is Nil, Zero, Nada, **** all.
Hence 30% of the work force have to go now!
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Re: Coronavirus
Yes Jacob, I have put in for VS as terms will be half if you don’t go now.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:45 pmExactly, euravia & other do the servicing, the maintenance packages are sourced elsewhere, whichever way you look at it, the planes & everything else which entails the demand isn't there & will be substantially reduced for the foreseeable future. There's over 200 to go from barnoldswick from a workforce of 700+ & at the moment it's VS & then compulsory redundancies.
It’s 234, leaving about 540. But this is the first round of 3000. The company second round is another 5000. How many from Barlick, who knows.
Australia is closed till next year, Quantas have cancelled most flights till end of Oct. a massive customer, more trouble for RR
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Re: Covid-19
"The institute attributed the rise to a number of local outbreaks that have been traced back to places with large numbers of people, such as meatpacking plants and logistics centres, as well as refugee shelters. Outbreaks have also been linked to church services and family parties".
“Since case numbers in Germany are generally low, these outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the reproduction number. Further developments need to be monitored closely during the upcoming days, especially in regard to whether case numbers are increasing outside of outbreak contexts.”
"Germany eased its lockdown restrictions in mid-May following pressure from state premiers and nationwide protests. Angela Merkel has been in favour of maintaining lockdown discipline for longer, urging people to continue maintaining social distancing despite changes to the restrictions". https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 77996.html
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Re: Covid-19
That makes sense. If only 7,500 have it in Germany, an Rt of 2.88 projects that around 20,000 will have it soon. Still seems a lot to track and trace.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
p.s. I know the new cases per day differs from the total active cases that is in my link. I’m assuming that the 2.88 relates to the whole caseload but I’m not 100% sure.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
p.s. I know the new cases per day differs from the total active cases that is in my link. I’m assuming that the 2.88 relates to the whole caseload but I’m not 100% sure.
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Re: Covid-19
Perhaps a good proportion of those 7500 are already being tracked and traced. The 'app' should be automatically informing other phone users who have been within their proximity for a specified time. Manual tracers will likely already be onto other contacts.CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:57 pmThat makes sense. If only 7,500 have it in Germany, an Rt of 2.88 projects that around 20,000 will have it soon. Still seems a lot to track and trace.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
p.s. I know the new cases per day differs from the total active cases that is in my link. I’m assuming that the 2.88 relates to the whole caseload but I’m not 100% sure.
A lot of the people who tested positive are also within clusters within specific regions or workplaces. This should make it a bit easier to trace.
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Re: Covid-19
Another Vaccine goes into Human Trials (this time with an additional adjuvant that boosts the vaccine)
Clover Biopharmaceuticals coronavirus vaccine status
Clover Biopharmaceuticals has said the first participants have been dosed with its COVID-19 S-Trimer sub-unit vaccine candidate (SCB-2019) in the Phase 1 first-in-human study. The development makes it the sixth Chinese developer of a potential Covid-19 vaccine to move into human trials.
Clover’s trial, which is enrolling about 150 adult and elderly patients, will evaluate two different boosters, or adjuvants, from Britain’s GSK and US-based Dynavax in combination with its candidate shot, SCB-2019, Reuters quoted the Chinese company as saying.https://indianexpress.com/article/coron ... k-6469474/
Re: Covid-19
This is the problem with using misleading statistics. By carefully cherry picking which day to choose, you can give a false impression.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:39 pmDaily Cases starting to show tentative signs of increasing in several countries following lockdown releases a few weeks ago
Germany Daily cases on June 1st: 271.....Rose to 1,122 by June 17th.....Latest: 556
France....Daily cases on June 1st: 338.....Rose to 726 by June 12th.......Latest: 641
Sweden...Daily cases on June 1st: 644.....Rose to 1,487 by June 10th.....Latest: 1,481
"In South Korea, outbreaks have inspired second-guessing on whether officials were too quick to ease social distancing guidelines in April after a first wave of infections waned. Officials reported 49 cases on Friday as the virus continued to spread in the densely populated capital area of Seoul, where half of its 51 million people live. About 30 to 50 new cases have been confirmed per day since late May".
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... month.html
I guess we are about to see how good these 'track and trace apps' are. Korea already use one. Japan and Germany both released theirs last week based on Apple and Google technology (similar to the one that the UK might err umm eventually release in the winter).
France, for example, has lower reported cases at weekends just like we do. 1st June was a Monday, so those are Sunday figures. 12th and 20th are Friday and Saturday, reporting on Thursday and Friday figures. That's why we use 7 day rolling averages, to remove that sort of bias.
And so we look at the 7 days averages for those dates. 1st June - 973. (Probably overstated because they were rejigging the stats that week and there were some funny figures.) 12th June = 462. Latest (20th June) = 465. Now do you want to have another look and tell us if we ought to be panicking?
I dare say you weren't being deliberately misleading; perhaps you have been fooled by someone else's dodgy figures. Be careful.
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Re: Covid-19
Figures taken from here (Scroll down to daily new cases graph and hover over graph to get figures.:dsr wrote: ↑Sun Jun 21, 2020 11:26 pmThis is the problem with using misleading statistics. By carefully cherry picking which day to choose, you can give a false impression.
France, for example, has lower reported cases at weekends just like we do. 1st June was a Monday, so those are Sunday figures. 12th and 20th are Friday and Saturday, reporting on Thursday and Friday figures. That's why we use 7 day rolling averages, to remove that sort of bias.
And so we look at the 7 days averages for those dates. 1st June - 973. (Probably overstated because they were rejigging the stats that week and there were some funny figures.) 12th June = 462. Latest (20th June) = 465. Now do you want to have another look and tell us if we ought to be panicking?
I dare say you weren't being deliberately misleading; perhaps you have been fooled by someone else's dodgy figures. Be careful.
Germany (latest 359 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
France (latest now 284 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Sweden (latest 1,239 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
I believe these are the official figures of 'recorded cases' from the countries. The real numbers are probably higher. I cherry picked the three countries because these are the three that are showing tentative signs of an upturn. Lets hope it fizzles into nothing.
Re: Covid-19
It's not cherry picking the countries, it's cherry picking the days. If you count the number of hours worked at a factory on a Wednesday, and then count them again on a Sunday and find them less, is it a sign that the factory is doing less work? Of course not. And it's the same problem with using a daily figure for coronavirus cases - by careful choice of days to use, you can give a false impression.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:42 amFigures taken from here (Scroll down to daily new cases graph and hover over graph to get figures.:
Germany (latest 359 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
France (latest now 284 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Sweden (latest 1,239 weekend figures)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
I believe these are the official figures of 'recorded cases' from the countries. The real numbers are probably higher. I cherry picked the three countries because these are the three that are showing tentative signs of an upturn. Lets hope it fizzles into nothing.
Use the 7 days rolling average. It's a far more useful figure.
The other useful information would be how serious these new cases are. There's a lot more testing going on in general - are 500 cases discovered now the same as 500 cases discovered three months ago, or even two weeks ago? Or are they just finding more of the asymptomatic ones that they wouldn't have noticed before?
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Re: Covid-19
It may all be premature but I am beginning to 'smell a rat' in relation to 'release from lockdown' and the 'case rate figures' a few weeks later.
The case so far for an early release leading to either a resurgence or continuence of rising cases
- Over 20 US states firmly heading to a 'second peak' or continuence of a 'first peak' following early release
- Iran (very early release from lockdown) is now in their second peak. Daily cases, mortalities, and current number of cases are peaking for a second time. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
- German daily case rates look to be heading up again. Portugal case rates are higher in relation to mid May
- Sweden in continuence of first peak following minimal lockdown.
- Some far eastern countries such as China and Korea are having to deal with small flareups following release.
- In many countries the virus hits a peak and then tails off. Is this the natural progression of the virus or due to lockdown?
- A number of European countries are showing no sign of a 'second peak' yet. E.g. Italy, Belgium, Holland, Ireland, UK
- Spain looked to be heading upwards last week but figures turned down again and then started heading up again later this week. Jury still out.
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Re: Covid-19
Hate to add to the doom and gloom, but South Korea might be experiencing a 2nd wave https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-s ... 9586.html
Re: Covid-19
Logically, the countries that were best at shutting it down first time are more likely to get it second time. Simply because they prevented a lot of people who could have caught the disease, from getting it.
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Re: Covid-19
And there are still people here expecting to go abroad for a holiday soon. Selfish or what? If you go, don't complain when you have to isolate for 2 weeks on return.
And if you get stuck abroad, don't expect the rest of us to pay for your return.
And if you get stuck abroad, don't expect the rest of us to pay for your return.
Re: Covid-19
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... h-12012600
Lets hope we stop a second wave, as dsr stated there were and are a hell of a lot of people infected in the UK, hopefully if we keep the death rate as low as this people might not be stupid and keep social distancing etc. That said the recent protests and illegal raves is a real insult to people who obey the rules and others who have suffered either directly or indirectly from covid.
Lets hope we stop a second wave, as dsr stated there were and are a hell of a lot of people infected in the UK, hopefully if we keep the death rate as low as this people might not be stupid and keep social distancing etc. That said the recent protests and illegal raves is a real insult to people who obey the rules and others who have suffered either directly or indirectly from covid.
Re: Covid-19
I fully expect to go away in 3 months, quarantine won't be in place in a month never mind in 3. And no chance of anyone having to pay for my return.summitclaret wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:20 pmAnd there are still people here expecting to go abroad for a holiday soon. Selfish or what? If you go, don't complain when you have to isolate for 2 weeks on return.
And if you get stuck abroad, don't expect the rest of us to pay for your return.
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Re: Covid-19
It is Cherry picking the countries. I should know because it was me who did it. I did this deliberately because those countries are showing signs of an upturn.dsr wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:01 amIt's not cherry picking the countries, it's cherry picking the days. If you count the number of hours worked at a factory on a Wednesday, and then count them again on a Sunday and find them less, is it a sign that the factory is doing less work? Of course not. And it's the same problem with using a daily figure for coronavirus cases - by careful choice of days to use, you can give a false impression.
Use the 7 days rolling average. It's a far more useful figure.
The other useful information would be how serious these new cases are. There's a lot more testing going on in general - are 500 cases discovered now the same as 500 cases discovered three months ago, or even two weeks ago? Or are they just finding more of the asymptomatic ones that they wouldn't have noticed before?
I compared the 1st June (Monday showing Sundays figures) with yesterday (Sunday showing Saturdays figures) - both weekend. I also included the highest figure between the two dates.
I was indicating the spread of the virus. Not critical cases or severity. In my other post I give a for and against arguments.
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Re: Covid-19
Do they mean a second spike? I think they do looking at the article. A second wave is something much worst than a second spike. It's when the virus transmutes and moves to another cohort of the population.tiger76 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:07 pmHate to add to the doom and gloom, but South Korea might be experiencing a 2nd wave https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-s ... 9586.html
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Re: Covid-19
This talk of 'second waves' or spikes in South Korea and Germany seems a bit misleading. The whole idea of track and trace - which they do as well or better than anyone - is to quickly spot these outbreaks and close them down.
It looks like a sign the system works rather than a one of impending doom. Back in Jan/Feb/March these sort of outbreaks were spreading unnoticed. It only affects the R number in Germany so drastically because the number of infections throughout the country is so low.
It looks like a sign the system works rather than a one of impending doom. Back in Jan/Feb/March these sort of outbreaks were spreading unnoticed. It only affects the R number in Germany so drastically because the number of infections throughout the country is so low.
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Re: Covid-19
I'd tend to agree this is more likely to be a 2nd spike than a 2nd wave, the encouraging factor is how quickly the South Koreans are identifying and curbing these localised outbreaks, if they continue to be so efficient in their actions, then it should be easier to control any that do spring up sporadically.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:44 pmDo they mean a second spike? I think they do looking at the article. A second wave is something much worst than a second spike. It's when the virus transmutes and moves to another cohort of the population.
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Re: Covid-19
The UK is currently only on around 7%-8% of the people who have been through the virus. There is a lot more that can catch it yet unless the virus is transmuting to something less infectious or a good many people have antibodies from the common cold that are fighting it. Lets hope it peters out. Also there is likely to be vaccine soon.
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Re: Covid-19
A 2nd day in a row without a recorded death in Scotland https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/heal ... -22232282
And only 15 deaths UK wide-The number of daily coronavirus deaths in the UK has dropped to its lowest level since mid-March, according to the latest government figures.
The Department for Health and Social Care said there had been 15 new deaths recorded in the past 24 hours.
Now yes the weekend factor has to be accounted for, but these are the best numbers for many months, and a sign that we're finally getting on top of this bleeding thing at last.
And only 15 deaths UK wide-The number of daily coronavirus deaths in the UK has dropped to its lowest level since mid-March, according to the latest government figures.
The Department for Health and Social Care said there had been 15 new deaths recorded in the past 24 hours.
Now yes the weekend factor has to be accounted for, but these are the best numbers for many months, and a sign that we're finally getting on top of this bleeding thing at last.
This user liked this post: FactualFrank
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Re: Covid-19
You need to look at the same day of the week. The anomalies caused by the ways the figures are reported - the 24 hours up to 0800 GMT each day - mean that the weekend numbers are on Sunday and Monday, the Saturday total is mainly the Friday working day. So, as a rule, it goes Tuesday highest of the week, Weds lower, Thurs even lower, Friday usually 2nd to Tues, Sat same as Weds, Sun very low, Mon lowest.UnderSeige wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:41 pmIt is Cherry picking the countries. I should know because it was me who did it. I did this deliberately because those countries are showing signs of an upturn.
I compared the 1st June (Monday showing Sundays figures) with yesterday (Sunday showing Saturdays figures) - both weekend. I also included the highest figure between the two dates.
I was indicating the spread of the virus. Not critical cases or severity. In my other post I give a for and against arguments.