Covid-19

[bfcmik]

15 reported deaths today! 958 new cases found from 130000 tests. Lowest numbers since mid March

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-trials-c ... 36462.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/can-your-bloo ... 00670.html
More vaccine news and more research.
Considering this virus is 9-10 months old if you believe research showing it active in China in September's last year the worlds medics and scientists have done remarkably well.

[UnderSeige]

You need to look at the same day of the week. The anomalies caused by the ways the figures are reported - the 24 hours up to 0800 GMT each day - mean that the weekend numbers are on Sunday and Monday, the Saturday total is mainly the Friday working day. So, as a rule, it goes Tuesday highest of the week, Weds lower, Thurs even lower, Friday usually 2nd to Tues, Sat same as Weds, Sun very low, Mon lowest.

Just look at the slope of the graphs.

[UnderSeige]

You need to look at the same day of the week. The anomalies caused by the ways the figures are reported - the 24 hours up to 0800 GMT each day - mean that the weekend numbers are on Sunday and Monday, the Saturday total is mainly the Friday working day. So, as a rule, it goes Tuesday highest of the week, Weds lower, Thurs even lower, Friday usually 2nd to Tues, Sat same as Weds, Sun very low, Mon lowest.

Yes I used Mondays at the start. Sundays at the end. The reason for this was that I was comparing figures from the start of June up to yesterday. You only need to look at the way the graphs are sloping to see that there was a slight rise last week in Germany. Four of the days last week showed the highest 'new cases' for Germany since June 1st. The Ro rate is also rising. It was also all over the BBC news last night.

France and Spain are slightly more doubtful. Sweden is on a firm upward trajectory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53131941

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/22/euro ... index.html
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11921144/ ... ond-wave/
https://www.ft.com/content/057e861b-ef3 ... d2a0219212

[FactualFrank]

15 reported deaths today! 958 new cases found from 130000 tests. Lowest numbers since mid March

Is that due to the late weekend results - do you know what the number was last Monday?

[Spijed]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-trials-c ... 36462.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/can-your-bloo ... 00670.html
More vaccine news and more research.
Considering this virus is 9-10 months old if you believe research showing it active in China in September's last year the worlds medics and scientists have done remarkably well.

Does beg the question as to why scientists say it can take up to ten years to develop a vaccine. Is that purely down to the numbers of people involved or have they invented new testing?

Here's an article about the dangers of a new vaccine:

https://www.ft.com/content/f1b25b41-f3c ... 2385bc2eeb

[FactualFrank]

Does beg the question as to why scientists say it can take up to ten years to develop a vaccine. Is that purely down to the numbers of people involved or have they invented new testing?

Here's an article about the dangers of a new vaccine:

https://www.ft.com/content/f1b25b41-f3c ... 2385bc2eeb

Is it not more about them concentrating on 1 virus, as opposed to the many others that exist? So because they've put everything else on the shelf, they'll get this sorted sooner.

[Swizzlestick]

Does beg the question as to why scientists say it can take up to ten years to develop a vaccine. Is that purely down to the numbers of people involved or have they invented new testing?

Here's an article about the dangers of a new vaccine:

https://www.ft.com/content/f1b25b41-f3c ... 2385bc2eeb

But pretty much every research laboratory in pretty much every major pharmaceutical company is concentrating their efforts on COVID.

EDIT - oops, point already made by FF

[Spijed]

So basically any new cancer treats, for example, will now end up years behind schedule.

[FactualFrank]

So basically any new cancer treats, for example, will now end up years behind schedule.

Medicine moves at a snail's pace. They're 100s of years, probably 1000s of years away from a cancer cure. In the short term, they didn't have any choice but to concentrate on a vaccine for this.

[UnderSeige]

Is that due to the late weekend results - do you know what the number was last Monday?

1,056

[bfcmik]

Yes I used Mondays at the start. Sundays at the end. The reason for this was that I was comparing figures from the start of June up to yesterday. You only need to look at the way the graphs are sloping to see that there was a slight rise last week in Germany. Four of the days last week showed the highest 'new cases' for Germany since June 1st. The Ro rate is also rising. It was also all over the BBC news last night.

France and Spain are slightly more doubtful. Sweden is on a firm upward trajectory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53131941

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/22/euro ... index.html
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11921144/ ... ond-wave/
https://www.ft.com/content/057e861b-ef3 ... d2a0219212

Germany: A spike from a daily rate of a couple of hundred new cases can easily be caused by just a few hundred cases, which were mainly apparently centred on a single ethnic abattoir staffed, for the most part, by middle eastern migrants with up to 750 testing positive. 1 localised outbreak does not a true second spike or wave. Similarly, deaths have shown a single day spike every week since number dropped below 100. These last 7 days that peaked at 25 down from the previous week's 48. Today's announced figures are 143 new cases and just 2 deaths.

[UnderSeige]

You need to look at the same day of the week. The anomalies caused by the ways the figures are reported - the 24 hours up to 0800 GMT each day - mean that the weekend numbers are on Sunday and Monday, the Saturday total is mainly the Friday working day. So, as a rule, it goes Tuesday highest of the week, Weds lower, Thurs even lower, Friday usually 2nd to Tues, Sat same as Weds, Sun very low, Mon lowest.

The 7 day moving average (right hand column) shows that German cases were falling until 14th June. Since then they have been steadily rising up to the 21st June. I have also included the 'official figures' (middle column).

Germany
DATE.....New Cases.....7 Day Avg
07/06/20...336..........362.57
08/06/20...311..........368.29
09/06/20...-6............320.86
10/06/20...289..........314.43
11/06/20...285..........284.00
12/06/20...456..........279.00
13/06/20...172..........263.29
14/06/20...248..........250.71
15/06/20...373..........259.57
16/06/20...338..........308.71
17/06/20...1122.........427.71
18/06/20...622..........475.86
19/06/20...534..........487.00
20/06/20...556..........541.86
21/06/20...359..........557.71
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/

[bfcmik]

The 7 day moving average (right hand column) shows that German cases were falling until 14th June. Since then they have been steadily rising up to the 21st June. I have also included the 'official figures' (middle column).

Germany
DATE.....New Cases.....7 Day Avg
07/06/20...336..........362.57
08/06/20...311..........368.29
09/06/20...-6............320.86
10/06/20...289..........314.43
11/06/20...285..........284.00
12/06/20...456..........279.00
13/06/20...172..........263.29
14/06/20...248..........250.71
15/06/20...373..........259.57
16/06/20...338..........308.71
17/06/20...1122.........427.71
18/06/20...622..........475.86
19/06/20...534..........487.00
20/06/20...556..........541.86
21/06/20...359..........557.71
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/

That 7 day rolling average will drop sharply on Wednesday unless there is another spike.

[UnderSeige]

Germany: A spike from a daily rate of a couple of hundred new cases can easily be caused by just a few hundred cases, which were mainly apparently centred on a single ethnic abattoir staffed, for the most part, by middle eastern migrants with up to 750 testing positive. 1 localised outbreak does not a true second spike or wave. Similarly, deaths have shown a single day spike every week since number dropped below 100. These last 7 days that peaked at 25 down from the previous week's 48. Today's announced figures are 143 new cases and just 2 deaths.

True

How do you account for Iran, Sweden and the twenty states in the US that have had rising rates following early release from lockdown.

You might be positive about knowing what lies ahead. I don't know what the next development will be:

• Virus fizzles out as viral load drops?

• Second Spike?

• Second Wave

• Vaccine gets virus under control?

All I can say is that there are tentative signs in the data that there is perhaps another 'sting in the tail'. Until we get a vaccine or an 'effective containment plan' we are heading out to sea on the good ship 'Lady Luck'.

[UnderSeige]

That 7 day rolling average will drop sharply on Wednesday unless there is another spike.

Hope so.

[UnderSeige]

Is it not more about them concentrating on 1 virus, as opposed to the many others that exist? So because they've put everything else on the shelf, they'll get this sorted sooner.

There have been many advances in biotechnology over the last two decades. It is biotech companies that are leading the race for a vaccine. Moderna in the US; Oxford/AstraZeneca; Clover (and 5 others) in China; and a few more. These are the companies that are now in 'human trialling' and are hoping to have an available vaccine early this year.

The more established methods of 'vaccine development' will take longer. Perhaps these will become available in the second half of next year but even this will be a lot quicker than vaccines usually take to develop.

[UnderSeige]

The Iranian Second Spike following early release from lockdown
Many journalists call it a second wave but I think it's a second spike.

"Iran has reported more than 2,000 new daily coronavirus cases for the past two weeks — a sign the country is experiencing a second wave of infections. Global health expert Amir Afkhami said the spike in confirmed cases is the result of three factors: an erosion of public trust, testing delays, and lockdown restrictions that were rolled back too soon.
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-se ... ?r=US&IR=T

[UnderSeige]

Coronavirus second spikes emerge in several US states as they reopen

More than a dozen US states have seen a surge in covid-19 cases in recent weeks. Many of them, including Arizona, North Carolina, Oregon and Florida, are experiencing spikes in confirmed cases as they lift stay-at-home orders – so is reopening to blame? Yes, among other factors, say experts.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ey-reopen/

[UnderSeige]

Sturgeon reiterates need to be cautious to avoid coronavirus second wave
"Scotland’s First Minister has warned against a reckless approach to leaving lockdown as she pointed to Covid-19 spikes in China, Germany and South Korea". https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-22/stu ... cond-wave/

[UnderSeige]

Europe’s SECOND WAVE fears: New Sweden COVID-19 spike hits after cases were 'almost zero’
"A MUNICIPALITY in northern Sweden has began shutting down public facilities including sports venues, bathhouses and libraries on Wednesday after what it called an alarming spread of COVID-19". https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... -gallivare

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/pig-trial-ast ... 41299.html
More vaccine results coming through

[Wile E Coyote]

all seems very odd, 45,000 deaths in 3 months, no viable contact tracing, and now they're about to allow 1 m distancing and reopening pubs museums, art galleries etc.

[FactualFrank]

Out of interest, who thinks we're still going to get a second wave - where we have to go into full lockdown again?

There's at least one poster who guaranteed it, but I can't see it.

[Grumps]

Out of interest, who thinks we're still going to get a second wave - where we have to go into full lockdown again?

There's at least one poster who guaranteed it, but I can't see it.

Full lockdown, never.
Local lockdown, probably

[aggi]

Realistically this proposed cut of social distancing from 2m to 1m is going to mean no social distancing other than where it's formally applied (e.g. cinemas).

You see "socially distanced" gatherings now and they're generally about 3' apart. Tell people they can half that and the distancing will be non-existent.

[FactualFrank]

Realistically this proposed cut of social distancing from 2m to 1m is going to mean no social distancing other than where it's formally applied (e.g. cinemas).

You see "socially distanced" gatherings now and they're generally about 3' apart. Tell people they can half that and the distancing will be non-existent.

Probably. A lot of people don't seem to even know how long a metre is, so they have been walking 20 feet away from people thinking that's about right. 2 to 1 will make people go from 20 feet away to hugging each other and no longer taking it seriously.

We'd be fine if people just used common sense. No hugging and shaking hands, but at the same time no worrying if someone bangs into you at the shop, and letting people pass. Just keeping it in mind.

[Grumps]

Last daily briefing today.

[Billy Balfour]

Pubs to reopen? I thought it would have been pubs with beer gardens. So, we've gone the ridged lockdown measures to this is a matter of a few weeks. All the money that's been chucked at this and then they throw caution to the wind.

[LoveCurryPies]

....on 4th July.

Pubs, barbers and restaurants open for business but do you feel safe? Do you trust all those who will go crazy and think this means normality has returned?

[kritichris]

Nope

[TheFamilyCat]

Pint or haircut?

This decision is going to ruin my life for the next two weeks.

[claret2018]

To be honest, yes. I don't think you can keep people locked down much longer, lots of people have been doing what they want for a while now anyway.

I won't be rushing to the pub because it'll be like new years eve for a few weeks, but I won't have a problem returning to 'normal'.

[Devils_Advocate]

So from July 4th, you can’t hug your gran but you *can* go on Nemesis with her at Alton Towers. Seems sensible.

[FactualFrank]

do you feel safe?

Yes. Overall, I think we're over the worst of it.

[boatshed bill]

A couple of weeks ago some experts were predicting a 2nd "spike", maybe they still are, daft to ease restrictions if this is the case.

[UnderSeige]

Out of interest, who thinks we're still going to get a second wave - where we have to go into full lockdown again?

There's at least one poster who guaranteed it, but I can't see it.

Nobody knows for certain. That's the nature of a pandemic. Expect the unexpected.

A 'second spike' is more likely than a 'second wave'. A second spike would just be the virus taking off again due to the increased contact giving it more opportunity to transmit.

A 'second wave' is less likely with a coronavirus (SARS and MERS being the other ones). SARS fizzled out. MERS more or less fizzled out but there are still isolated outbrakes. The 'second wave' is where a virus transmutes so that it then predominantly attacks a different cohort of the population (e.g. the young).

[ClaretEngineer]

Pint or haircut?

This decision is going to ruin my life for the next two weeks.

Looking forward to getting my haircut, I look like I’ve been lost in jungle.

I’ve grown a submarine captains beard. Twice. Much to the chagrin of Mrs E.

[FactualFrank]

A couple of weeks ago some experts were predicting a 2nd "spike", maybe they still are, daft to ease restrictions if this is the case.

When you say experts, do you mean a few posters on here?

[huw.Y.WattfromWare]

There have been 4 outbreaks in the last few days in Anglesey, Barrow, Westphalia and Beijing. Every one was at a meat processing plant. I’d suggest you are safer in the pub than at the butchers.

[Silkyskills1]

'Normal' is a long way off. If that's what people want though then this government can deliver it. They've made so many mistakes; what's another one? Blundering and lying is their way and they have the perfect role model leading them.

[DCWat]

A couple of weeks ago some experts were predicting a 2nd "spike", maybe they still are, daft to ease restrictions if this is the case.

A second wave, from what I’ve read, can only be classified as such, when the first wave rates drop below a certain level.

The second wave, if we have one, may not occur for months. We can’t hold on forever, waiting for a second wave, that may not occur.

Hopefully the right actions being taken, when local spikes are spotted, will prevent a second wave.

That being said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we did have have a second wave. I just don’t want everything to be in limbo between now and then.

[FactualFrank]

The 'second wave' is where a virus transmutes so that it then predominantly attacks a different cohort of the population (e.g. the young).

It's a wave - just as when the sea brings in a wave, then another wave. They're the same thing, they just repeat.

It's not about transmuting and doesn't mean it attacks a different population.

A wave can be weaker or stronger, but it's doing the same thing again. In this instance, it can mean the exact same Covid-19, and we go back into lockdown.

[KateR]

There have been 4 outbreaks in the last few days in Anglesey, Barrow, Westphalia and Beijing. Every one was at a meat processing plant. I’d suggest you are safer in the pub than at the butchers.

This is very strange to me, the two big outbreaks/spike in Texas early in the release phase were both at meat packing factories in Amarillo and El Paso, plus I talked with someone in the Netherlands 10 days ago and he mentioned the only spike they had was in a meat factory.

[UnderSeige]

It's a wave - just as when the sea brings in a wave, then another wave. They're the same thing, they just repeat.

It's not about transmuting and doesn't mean it attacks a different population.

A wave can be weaker or stronger, but it's doing the same thing again. In this instance, it can mean the exact same Covid-19, and we go back into lockdown.

Government ministers and scientists talk about a 'second spike' or 'second peak' not a second wave. They got the lingo from the scientists. An example of a second and third wave occurred in Spanish Flue when the virus moved on from old to young, poor to rich etc.

A wave moves. It goes up and down moving along. It can have several peaks. A peak is a solitary position. You can have peaks in waves but not waves in peaks.

[kentonclaret]

Something telling us to respect the environment and turn vegan perhaps

[FactualFrank]

I see a wave by understanding why it was called such a thing. Peaks/Spikes as being random. They could happen in a certain location and not nationwide. And a wave is something that covers the country - but it's nothing to do with it changing. It's the same thing, just spiking all over.

I guess people will read and understand it differently. I don't think we'll have another wave, where it covers the country.

[Zlatan]

Ironically as the government were announcing the lifting of lockdown today I recieved by letter advising me to continue shielding - dated yesterday

[FactualFrank]

Something telling us to respect the environment and turn vegan perhaps

Are you a vegan?

[Dyched]

Are you a vegan?

He’d have told you already if he was.

Trigger laugh “hahahahahahahh”