Covid-19

[Zlatan]

Are you a vegan?

Have they told us yet?

[Pimlico_Claret]

Not sure why it's 4th July, a Saturday. Everything else has been a Monday. Can just imagine crowds of people rushing to the pubs to hug their mates they haven't seen. Think I'll wait.

[FactualFrank]

He’d have told you already if he was.

Trigger laugh “hahahahahahahh”

I was giving him a chance to edge his way in, before the full reveal.

[Rowls]

This is very strange to me, the two big outbreaks/spike in Texas early in the release phase were both at meat packing factories in Amarillo and El Paso, plus I talked with someone in the Netherlands 10 days ago and he mentioned the only spike they had was in a meat factory.

Yes, looks like a pattern doesn't it.

Maybe there's something about the working conditions? Refriderated atmospheres, cold and damp working conditions... etc.

[Dyched]

Not sure why it's 4th July, a Saturday. Everything else has been a Monday. Can just imagine crowds of people rushing to the pubs to hug their mates they haven't seen. Think I'll wait.

Very stupid for what will be the busiest night of the week for most pubs and restaurants. Should of been Monday so business can slowly build up throughout the week and get used to the new systems put in place.

[Rowls]

Hopefully the pubs reopen smoothly.

It would appear from the outside that the whole country has gone loopy.

[kentonclaret]

Sorry guys, that's the salad dressed.

What's all the posting frenzy about?

[Silkyskills1]

::

Not sure why it's 4th July, a Saturday. Everything else has been a Monday. Can just imagine crowds of people rushing to the pubs to hug their mates they haven't seen. Think I'll wait.

Tends to suggest not much thought.or planning. Unlike this govt.

[boatshed bill]

No pubs for me. I've kind of enjoyed the rather slack UK lockdown and may stick with my new lifestyle.

[FactualFrank]

Hopefully the pubs reopen smoothly.

It would appear from the outside that the whole country has gone loopy.

A lot of people will want a pint. A lot of people will be thinking, "Hold on a second - let's not rush into this and see what happens".

It wouldn't surprise me if pubs are the same as they were. One side, more people going in - the other side, people staying away.

[UnderSeige]

I see a wave by understanding why it was called such a thing. Peaks/Spikes as being random. They could happen in a certain location and not nationwide. And a wave is something that covers the country - but it's nothing to do with it changing. It's the same thing, just spiking all over.

I guess people will read and understand it differently. I don't think we'll have another wave, where it covers the country.

Yes a lot of people use the terms interchangeably (especially journalists) but are incorrect in doing so. On BBC's Question time, about three weeks ago, they had one of the government scientists on who corrected another member of the panel and then explained the difference. Ever since, at the daily briefings the government ministers refer to the 'second spike'.

Currently, in Iran they are experiencing a 'second peak' due to early release from lockdown, but they are still in the first wave. If we get a second wave Heaven help us.

[KateR]

Yes, looks like a pattern doesn't it.

Maybe there's something about the working conditions? Refriderated atmospheres, cold and damp working conditions... etc.

have no idea, just seems hell of a coincidence but maybe the conditions lead to the spread easier if one person goes and has the virus, which there must obviously have been at least one in each location.

[FactualFrank]

Yes a lot of people use the terms interchangeably (especially journalists) but are incorrect in doing so. On BBC's Question time, about three weeks ago, they had one of the government scientists on who corrected another member of the panel and then explained the difference. Ever since, at the daily briefings the government ministers refer to the 'second spike'.

Currently, in Iran they are experiencing a 'second peak' due to early release from lockdown, but they are still in the first wave. If we get a second wave Heaven help us.

I'm confident in saying we won't have... well... what we've been through. I don't think we'll be on lockdown and have everything pretty much shut. Wave, spike, you know what I mean.

It won't be like it was. The government have been pretty crap, but they've got us through it.

[A.Claret.Fan]

I've been drinking too much at home, be nice to go to the pub to cut down.

[UnderSeige]

Frank
An example of a second wave:

"Throughout April and May of 1918, the virus spread like wildfire through England, France, Spain and Italy. An estimated three-quarters of the French military was infected in the spring of 1918 and as many as half of British troops. Yet the first wave of the virus didn't appear to be particularly deadly, with symptoms like high fever and malaise usually lasting only three days. According to limited public health data from the time, mortality rates were similar to seasonal flu".

Reported cases of Spanish flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.

In late August 1918, military ships departed the English port city of Plymouth carrying troops unknowingly infected with this new, far deadlier strain of Spanish flu. As these ships arrived in cities like Brest in France, Boston in the United States and Freetown in west Africa, the second wave of the global pandemic began".

I think that this sort of thing is less likely with a Coronavirus strain such as COVID-19.

[Blackrod]

I suppose it has to be lifted sometime but do I feel safe in pubs and restaurants ? No so I won’t be going. Reducing 2m to 1m will mean nothing in some people’s eyes. I’ve seen groups of young lads ignoring it for weeks. I’d prefer to see new cases numbers much lower yet.

[UnderSeige]

I'm confident in saying we won't have... well... what we've been through. I don't think we'll be on lockdown and have everything pretty much shut. Wave, spike, you know what I mean.

It won't be like it was. The government have been pretty crap, but they've got us through it.

My position is that I just don't know. I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

In any case we might have a vaccine in 3-4 months time.

[FactualFrank]

My position is that I just don't know. I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

In any case we might have a vaccine in 3-4 months time.

I think treatment will matter more. A treatment that helps people get over it. The vaccine won't be as necessary as it was.

That's what I think and hope.

[huw.Y.WattfromWare]

have no idea, just seems hell of a coincidence but maybe the conditions lead to the spread easier if one person goes and has the virus, which there must obviously have been at least one in each location.

Or is it in the meat? I didn’t know about your earlier locations but it is becoming too much of a coincidence.

[Pimlico_Claret]

Anyone happy drinking from a glass with some previous persons faded lipstick on. How many times does that happen?

[KateR]

So anyone going on holiday early July?

I feel it's strange in that I am sure I read, pubs/hospitality only for indoors, so no beer gardens where I would feel safer at a distance, some of those snugs will only allow one in at a time, think some pubs wont reopen at all on the 4th but most will.

[FactualFrank]

Anyone happy drinking from a glass with some previous persons faded lipstick on. How many times does that happen?

But that would be ingesting and swallowing the virus. It's a virus that attacks the lungs, so in your scenario it wouldn't matter.

Unless you snorted the lipstick

[huw.Y.WattfromWare]

Anyone happy drinking from a glass with some previous persons faded lipstick on. How many times does that happen?

And keep your fingers out of the free nibbles.

[bfcjg]

I will keep my distance wear a mask etc I haven't survived so far by risking it for a pint in a busy pub or a haircut in a barbers that isn't adhering to rules.

[taio]

I think treatment will matter more. A treatment that helps people get over it. The vaccine won't be as necessary as it was.

That's what I think and hope.

Every medic I speak to says an effective vaccine would be the single most important development in fighting the disease.

[Billy Balfour]

People keeping their one meter social-distance while popped up? Yeah, that's sure going to happen, isn't it. It's a no from me. It's not just about keeping myself safe. It's about keeping my family safe and my parents when I visit them.

[Pimlico_Claret]

But that would be ingesting and swallowing the virus. It's a virus that attacks the lungs, so in your scenario it wouldn't matter.

Unless you snorted the lipstick

I suppose I was highlighting less than ideal hygiene, same when you get a dirty bit of cutlery in a restaurant.
If one thing comes out of all this, it might be better standards of hygiene all round, no more urinating in sinks.

[cricketfieldclarets]

The good thing is we are in a situation now where testing is Available to all. Knowledge of the virus is improving every day. Treatments are emerging. Vaccines are in the pipeline. Distancing is still in place. Prevention measures exist. Most offices and air conditioned spaces are closed. Mass gatherings in the main aren’t permitted. New hospitals exist.

So you’d like to think given MOST of us would be ok if we caught it plus all of the above means noes a good time to do it. Good weather for the foreseeable too.

The longer the measures exist the more likely people are to cause the sort of problems we’ve seen this last month. The protests. Riots and even the banner were all sadly predictable.

Letting us back to normality is important.

Especially for youngsters. Really Feel For the kids in all this.

[jrgbfc]

Opening the pubs on a Saturday does seem to be a bit daft. I expect them to be heaving, particularly if it's a nice day. Social distancing will go out the window by the time everyone's had 3 or 4 pints.

[fanzone]

Teachers everywhere crying at the thought of returning to work in September.

[Billy Balfour]

Teachers everywhere crying at the thought of returning to work in September.

Do you know a lot of teachers? The ones I know are back at work and have been throughout this. Most schools are open, but not fully because of social-distancing rules.

[Grumps]

Teachers everywhere crying at the thought of returning to work in September.

Typical ill informed comment.

[fanzone]

Do you know a lot of teachers? The ones I know are back at work and have been throughout this. Most schools are open, but not fully because of social-distancing rules.

Would need both hands to count the teachers i know. And none have been working the full hours in a classroom.

Going off discussions on bookface on a teachers union page, alot of them still feel unsafe at 1 meter.

[joey13]

When you say experts, do you mean a few posters on here?

You don’t need to be an expert,it’s already happening in America for instance

[boatshed bill]

When you say experts, do you mean a few posters on here?

They may be posters on here, I wouldn't know. but it's possible that CM posters are well up in the W H O

[Billy Balfour]

Worsthorne Horticultural Organisation.

[UnderSeige]

Every medic I speak to says an effective vaccine would be the single most important development in fighting the disease.

A vaccine, an 'effective containment plan' or luck. I would settle for any one of these right now.

A treatment would be a great help though.

[boatshed bill]

Worsthorne Horticultural Organisation.

[KateR]

Or is it in the meat? I didn’t know about your earlier locations but it is becoming too much of a coincidence.

not the meat they say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/53137613

[UnderSeige]

....on 4th July.

Pubs, barbers and restaurants open for business but do you feel safe? Do you trust all those who will go crazy and think this means normality has returned?

If we are going to get a second spike 'the cat is already out of the bag' no matter what the government does. Many people are already acting like it's over. I was in Burnley town centre yesterday and, apart from the queues outside the banks, things looked normal. You could have counted the number of people wearing masks on one hand.

Not to mention mass gatherings on beaches and beauty spots, protests, raves etc.

[UnderSeige]

not the meat they say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/53137613

I heard someone on the radio say that the conditions in meat plants are just the right conditions that the virus needs to thrive. Very cold and dry he said. They then went on to discuss the winter and the possibility of the virus spreading if it's cold and frosty.

I would like to see a vaccine in the autumn and a damp mild winter this year.

[KateR]

I heard someone on the radio say that the conditions in meat plants are just the right conditions that the virus needs to thrive. Very cold and dry he said. They then went on to discuss the winter and the possibility of the virus spreading if it's cold and frosty.

I would like to see a vaccine in the autumn and a damp mild winter this year.

Lots of people pooh poohed the summer making any difference but have always suspected it would, with zero proof, plus the fear of the return in autumn is very real for me, probably get damp but mild and vaccine!! I hope so though

[aggi]

This had dropped to the second page, obviously people are getting less concerned which may be a good thing.

Has there been any indicator on what type of hit rate is required on the track and trace for it to be effective?

Looking at our "world-beating" system last week:

There were 7,842 cases confirmed by tests between 11 Jun and 17 June
6,129 passed on to track and trace service (78%)
Of those, 3 in 10 didn't provide contacts giving 4,290(55%).
Of those that did, 20% were not reached (equivalent to 3,432) and so were not told to self isolate

So about 44% of those who should be self-isolating actually are (assuming they all follow instructions). Is that enough to have a noticeable impact I wonder?

[dsr]

If we are going to get a second spike 'the cat is already out of the bag' no matter what the government does. Many people are already acting like it's over. I was in Burnley town centre yesterday and, apart from the queues outside the banks, things looked normal. You could have counted the number of people wearing masks on one hand.

Not to mention mass gatherings on beaches and beauty spots, protests, raves etc.

There's a limit to how many times a second spike can be predicted and not materialise, before everyone ignores it. We had the VE-Day celebrations that made no difference. we had the Spring Bank Holiday seaside outings that made no difference. We had the BLM protests that made no difference. Why should people believe that there is going to be a second spike if crowds gather?

[UnderSeige]

There's a limit to how many times a second spike can be predicted and not materialise, before everyone ignores it. We had the VE-Day celebrations that made no difference. we had the Spring Bank Holiday seaside outings that made no difference. We had the BLM protests that made no difference. Why should people believe that there is going to be a second spike if crowds gather?

I don't think it's an exact science. The 20 US states that are now experiencing a second spike started releasing in late April/early May. Iran who are experiencing a severe second spike released from lockdown in late April. Sweden are also heading into difficult waters.

However, most of Europe seems to have got it under control. Just a couple of minor scares in Germany and Spain. I think that we need more information and time to assess exactly what is going on. We should have some idea by late July. If it hasn't happened by then I'm with your argument (at least for the rest of the summer).

[UnderSeige]

This had dropped to the second page, obviously people are getting less concerned which may be a good thing.

Has there been any indicator on what type of hit rate is required on the track and trace for it to be effective?

Looking at our "world-beating" system last week:

There were 7,842 cases confirmed by tests between 11 Jun and 17 June
6,129 passed on to track and trace service (78%)
Of those, 3 in 10 didn't provide contacts giving 4,290(55%).
Of those that did, 20% were not reached (equivalent to 3,432) and so were not told to self isolate

So about 44% of those who should be self-isolating actually are (assuming they all follow instructions). Is that enough to have a noticeable impact I wonder?

It should have some sort of impact even if it's just slowing it down. Of the 56% that are not self isolating, perhaps just a proportion have the virus.

I am a bit puzzled as to why not all 7,842 cases were passed on.

[UnderSeige]

Some possible good news (at least for previously hard hit areas such as London)

Data is increasingly suggesting that the first wave of covid-19 in a country (or state) is the worst. The most people get infected during that initial period, as expected with a virus with an R0 this high.

Many US states are still in their first waves, especially those in the South and West seeing re-surging infections. The battle there remains focused on preventing things from getting out of control and overwhelming the medical system.

But it's possible that previously hard hit areas like New York, Italy and Spain may now have sufficient immunity to avoid a second wave. It's too soon to know for certain, but if true, this will be very welcome news.

Similarly encouraging is that we now have a better handle medically on how to treat covid patients successfully with early intervention (Tocilizumab, Anakina and, yes, HCQ+). So further outbreaks can hopefully quelled earlier and with fewer mortalities.

Reason to hope? Yes. Can we let our guard down now? Absoultuely not. Chris Martenson https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MAoJnu7-sw

[UnderSeige]

Lots of people pooh poohed the summer making any difference but have always suspected it would, with zero proof, plus the fear of the return in autumn is very real for me, probably get damp but mild and vaccine!! I hope so though

This is where I heard it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIoy7YJ8PZY

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/moderna-picks ... 38593.html
I think the world's governments are confident of a vaccine before winter hence the easing.

[KateR]

I don't think it's an exact science. The 20 US states that are now experiencing a second spike started releasing in late April/early May. Iran who are experiencing a severe second spike released from lockdown in late April. Sweden are also heading into difficult waters.

However, most of Europe seems to have got it under control. Just a couple of minor scares in Germany and Spain. I think that we need more information and time to assess exactly what is going on. We should have some idea by late July. If it hasn't happened by then I'm with your argument (at least for the rest of the summer).

In Houston we have gone backwards in terms of now it is mandatory to wear a mask when outside your home, walking shopping etc. It's clearly still in plenty of places around the world and when we think it's ok it's going to bite you. We have had bars and restaurants open for a while now, started at 25% occupancy but now up to 75% for a couple of weeks.