Covid-19

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UnderSeige
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:29 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:56 pm
Let's also hope those figures include Pillar 2. The Leicester numbers showed a drop in cases with Pillar 1, yet when Pillar 2 were added, it showed the spike in cases. It's hard to know which numbers to trust.
I was a bit baffled watching Peston last night. He interviewed a Professor from the 'London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine'. In the discussion they were talking about the current daily figures for the UK being around 3,000 per day. I thought that the daily figures had been below a thousand since Sunday. Is there more than one set of figures?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:30 pm

taio wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:14 pm
Williamson grates on me quite a lot. I find him false and weak.
Same here. Also his false earnestness makes him sound like a village vicar preaching from the pulpit.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:32 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:29 pm
I was a bit baffled watching Peston last night. He interviewed a Professor from the 'London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine'. In the discussion they were talking about the current daily figures for the UK being around 3,000 per day. I thought that the daily figures had been below a thousand since Sunday. Is there more than one set of figures?
Pillar 1 is only people tested in hospitals, with the Pillar 2 figures being hidden by government - presumably to make people feel safer and for the economy to grow quicker.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:45 pm

Why are they holding a press conference today, but not when Leicester went into further lockdown measures, seems strange to me.

Oh! yes of course they're announcing good news, silly me.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:08 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:32 pm
Pillar 1 is only people tested in hospitals, with the Pillar 2 figures being hidden by government - presumably to make people feel safer and for the economy to grow quicker.
The government outsourced test track and trace to Deloitte, despite there being people working for councils able to do this job, and despite Deloitte appalling track record on PPE. The governments contract with Deloitte apparently (according to Nadine Dorries) has no provision for Deloitte to inform councils of pillar 2 cases.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:29 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:08 pm
The government outsourced test track and trace to Deloitte, despite there being people working for councils able to do this job, and despite Deloitte appalling track record on PPE. The governments contract with Deloitte apparently (according to Nadine Dorries) has no provision for Deloitte to inform councils of pillar 2 cases.
Pillar 2 will be in official figs from today.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:19 pm

Grumps wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:29 pm
Pillar 2 will be in official figs from today.
That’s a positive step, but crazy that it’s taken them this long, right on the eve of easing the lockdown.

I’ve had a low opinion of Johnson since he was mayor of London, but he’s managed to astound me with new examples of ineptitude since. We had so much time to prepare, and yet we always seem to be playing catch-up. Testing kits, PPE, lockdown timing, care home strategy, even the exit strategy - all of it should have been sorted in February. There is no way Dyson should have been considering making ventilators in April. Or looking to have an app ready for Christmas. It’s bad enough that Johnson is useless, but he’s surrounded himself with yes people who appear to be even worse than him. An entire cabinet of Diane Abbott’s would do a better job.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:20 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:56 pm
Let's also hope those figures include Pillar 2. The Leicester numbers showed a drop in cases with Pillar 1, yet when Pillar 2 were added, it showed the spike in cases. It's hard to know which numbers to trust.
I think the most important numbers are hospitalisations and deaths. Both coming down.

Infections will invariably go up as testing as far more prevalent yet even cases are on a downward overall.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:24 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:45 pm
Why are they holding a press conference today, but not when Leicester went into further lockdown measures, seems strange to me.

Oh! yes of course they're announcing good news, silly me.
More good news the better

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:33 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:19 pm
That’s a positive step, but crazy that it’s taken them this long, right on the eve of easing the lockdown.

I’ve had a low opinion of Johnson since he was mayor of London, but he’s managed to astound me with new examples of ineptitude since. We had so much time to prepare, and yet we always seem to be playing catch-up. Testing kits, PPE, lockdown timing, care home strategy, even the exit strategy - all of it should have been sorted in February. There is no way Dyson should have been considering making ventilators in April. Or looking to have an app ready for Christmas. It’s bad enough that Johnson is useless, but he’s surrounded himself with yes people who appear to be even worse than him. An entire cabinet of Diane Abbott’s would do a better job.
Yep. He takes incompetence to a new level.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:35 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:19 pm
That’s a positive step, but crazy that it’s taken them this long, right on the eve of easing the lockdown.

I’ve had a low opinion of Johnson since he was mayor of London, but he’s managed to astound me with new examples of ineptitude since. We had so much time to prepare, and yet we always seem to be playing catch-up. Testing kits, PPE, lockdown timing, care home strategy, even the exit strategy - all of it should have been sorted in February. There is no way Dyson should have been considering making ventilators in April. Or looking to have an app ready for Christmas. It’s bad enough that Johnson is useless, but he’s surrounded himself with yes people who appear to be even worse than him. An entire cabinet of Diane Abbott’s would do a better job.
I only pointed out what was happening, didn't want a re run of all the things that raise your blood pressure.
At least there were no cut and pastes from the guardian :lol: :lol:

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Blackrod » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:00 pm

Leicester has the highest rate of infection followed by Bradford. Rochdale is 4th and Blackburn with Darwrn is 11th. There’s a common denominator and the NHS in these areas must be under pressure. I don’t think Leicester will be the only place to be put into further lockdown.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:06 pm

Blackrod wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:00 pm
Leicester has the highest rate of infection followed by Bradford. Rochdale is 4th and Blackburn with Darwrn is 11th. There’s a common denominator and the NHS in these areas must be under pressure. I don’t think Leicester will be the only place to be put into further lockdown.
If you include Wales and Scotland then your top 4 is not correct. Not sure what your common denominator is but if it is also true of Merthyr Tydfil and Wrexham then you might be on to something.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:31 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:32 pm
Pillar 1 is only people tested in hospitals, with the Pillar 2 figures being hidden by government - presumably to make people feel safer and for the economy to grow quicker.
That explains it. It sounds so plausible that I don't need to look it up.

No figures out yet today.

If the government think that it will make people feel safer I don't think it's working. The Peston programme also showed the results of some polls that were taken. Around two thirds of the country think that there will be a second wave/spike. A good majority of those blame it on the protesters/beach parties and stuff rather than the government but the government were also said to be to blame by about a third of those polled.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:19 pm
That’s a positive step, but crazy that it’s taken them this long, right on the eve of easing the lockdown.

I’ve had a low opinion of Johnson since he was mayor of London, but he’s managed to astound me with new examples of ineptitude since. We had so much time to prepare, and yet we always seem to be playing catch-up. Testing kits, PPE, lockdown timing, care home strategy, even the exit strategy - all of it should have been sorted in February. There is no way Dyson should have been considering making ventilators in April. Or looking to have an app ready for Christmas. It’s bad enough that Johnson is useless, but he’s surrounded himself with yes people who appear to be even worse than him. An entire cabinet of Diane Abbott’s would do a better job.
Career politicians.

We still need a 'containment strategy'.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:50 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:20 pm
I think the most important numbers are hospitalisations and deaths. Both coming down.

Infections will invariably go up as testing as far more prevalent yet even cases are on a downward overall.
The most important figures to quantify the spread of the virus are all 'positive tests' (hospital and others). As long as the number of tests per day remains roughly constant this will show how the virus is spreading.

'Hospitalisation positive tests' are useful to show how many people are requiring 'critical care'. One thing that isn't coming out in the figures much is the figures for patients who are discharged from hospital with 'long term health problems' as a result of coronavirus. I think that there is a possibility of a second concern equal to the 'care home problem' when all of this comes 'out in the wash'.

The most important figures to quantify fatalities is the total (hospital and non-hospital) fatalities with COVID-19 cited on the death certificate as the cause or a major contributory factor.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:56 pm


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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:34 pm

This is what we are dealing with.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:14 pm

Yes I've noticed the conflicting opinions of the scientists, it is confusing, but then this is a new virus, which they and we are learning more about every day. The key is having an efficient track & trace system in place, and as yet we're not seeing enough people being contacted, or their close contacts either, until that is tightened up, we'll be struggling to contain this virus.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:35 am

In 1918 the first wave had calmed for several months before the second wave struck. The second wave killed five times more people than the first, and due to its mutation many were from the 20-40 year cohort. The third wave killed half as many as the second wave. In total we had 228k deaths in 1918 due to the Spanish Flu. God forbid we have a similar outcome this time.

I think the government has to get on top of it. The cost to the country of not locking down soon enough is now plain to see, in lives and money. I can understand looking at local lockdowns rather than the whole country, but they have to be serious about it. They have to make it work, and if a company they’ve hired isn’t doing that, they have to do it themselves. They’ve made lots of mistakes, so now is their chance to be prepared and save the day of a second wave comes.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:24 am

Blackrod wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:00 pm
Leicester has the highest rate of infection followed by Bradford. Rochdale is 4th and Blackburn with Darwrn is 11th. There’s a common denominator and the NHS in these areas must be under pressure. I don’t think Leicester will be the only place to be put into further lockdown.
I doubt it the NHS is under pressure in Leicester. Leicester had 135 new cases per 100,000 people in the last week counted. That, over the population of the city as a whole, is between 400 and 500 cases depending which population figure you use.

Of those 400 to 500 cases, about 10% tops will end up in hospital. I'm sure Leicester has enough beds to cope.

Remember we are not hiding in our homes because coronavirus is deadly and is killing loads of people. It has done that in the past; what we are hiding from now is the fear that it might come back. More and more people are coming to the conclusion that now is a good time to peep out and see if it really has diminished to the point of triviality.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:28 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:35 am
In 1918 the first wave had calmed for several months before the second wave struck. The second wave killed five times more people than the first, and due to its mutation many were from the 20-40 year cohort. The third wave killed half as many as the second wave. In total we had 228k deaths in 1918 due to the Spanish Flu. God forbid we have a similar outcome this time.

I think the government has to get on top of it. The cost to the country of not locking down soon enough is now plain to see, in lives and money. I can understand looking at local lockdowns rather than the whole country, but they have to be serious about it. They have to make it work, and if a company they’ve hired isn’t doing that, they have to do it themselves. They’ve made lots of mistakes, so now is their chance to be prepared and save the day of a second wave comes.
That is certainly an argument for 20-40 year olds to get out there and catch the disease now, while it is essentially harmless to them. (And before you quote the 40 cases of people under 40 who have died of coronavirus without underlying conditions, I could point out that the annual number who die of flu and pneumonia in that group is significantly higher.) If I was aged 20-40 I would be wanting to catch it now in hopes that it would give a degree of immunity to this hypothetical mutation.

It is an established medical principle to deliberately allow people to be infected by disease. Chicken pox parties for children. And when my niece had scarlet fever, only symptom being a bright red face, they recommended sending her to playgroup as usual because so everyone could get it.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:46 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:35 am
In 1918 the first wave had calmed for several months before the second wave struck. The second wave killed five times more people than the first, and due to its mutation many were from the 20-40 year cohort. The third wave killed half as many as the second wave. In total we had 228k deaths in 1918 due to the Spanish Flu. God forbid we have a similar outcome this time.

I think the government has to get on top of it. The cost to the country of not locking down soon enough is now plain to see, in lives and money. I can understand looking at local lockdowns rather than the whole country, but they have to be serious about it. They have to make it work, and if a company they’ve hired isn’t doing that, they have to do it themselves. They’ve made lots of mistakes, so now is their chance to be prepared and save the day of a second wave comes.
Whatever happened in 1918 is totally irrelevant as to what will or won't happen in 2020
Things have moved on a little since then, housing conditions, work place conditions, better health care, more hospitals, better communication advising people what to do and what not to do.

In 1918 there would be no social distancing, no hand sanitisers in public places, no lockdowns.... I could go on, but iam sure you get the idea.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:11 am

Grumps wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:46 am
Whatever happened in 1918 is totally irrelevant as to what will or won't happen in 2020
Things have moved on a little since then, housing conditions, work place conditions, better health care, more hospitals, better communication advising people what to do and what not to do.

In 1918 there would be no social distancing, no hand sanitisers in public places, no lockdowns.... I could go on, but iam sure you get the idea.
Was going to post similar.

Science is way further along. Our access to information, medical treatments, conditions - both medical and at home.

Even things like nutrition.

Obviously the other factor is a lot of that 20 - 40 year old generation back then will have been at war too. That will have had a huge impact also.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:11 am

High DSR in the 70's there was an outbreak of chicken pox on our road so all the toddlers and older kids played together unless the child was too ill from the pox. Two of my three boys developed the pox rash but the third didn't. Wind on 20 years until he too went down with the pox and his immune brother who helped to look after him went down with it a second time. Just to highlight how things can pan out. You would have thought that the one who escaped the pox in the 70's must have developed immunity and he may have, but of course you can get chicken pox more than once and the virus which lives in us forever doesn't have to reappear, if it comes back, as the pox but as the more serious (for the elderly) shingles.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:15 am

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:11 am
High DSR in the 70's there was an outbreak of chicken pox on our road so all the toddlers and older kids played together unless the child was too ill from the pox. Two of my three boys developed the pox rash but the third didn't. Wind on 20 years until he too went down with the pox and his immune brother who helped to look after him went down with it a second time. Just to highlight how things can pan out. You would have thought that the one who escaped the pox in the 70's must have developed immunity and he may have, but of course you can get chicken pox more than once and the virus which lives in us forever doesn't have to reappear, if it comes back, as the pox but as the more serious (for the elderly) shingles.
Exactly why actively trying to catch the disease isnt the best idea. Now or in the future. Id rather avoid it full stop.

That said I am sure for most of us it wont be an issue.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:23 am

Even my age group survival is way better than 50:50 but I think if you are 50+ the odds are much greater of pegging it. As I have posted elsewhere, once the 20-40's realise their relative immortality, a significant number will cock their noses up to social distancing in my opinion and that will lead to more spreading of the virus to that age group but also to their parents and grandparents and then more problems for the NHS.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Spijed » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:28 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:28 am
That is certainly an argument for 20-40 year olds to get out there and catch the disease now, while it is essentially harmless to them. (And before you quote the 40 cases of people under 40 who have died of coronavirus without underlying conditions, I could point out that the annual number who die of flu and pneumonia in that group is significantly higher.) If I was aged 20-40 I would be wanting to catch it now in hopes that it would give a degree of immunity to this hypothetical mutation.

It is an established medical principle to deliberately allow people to be infected by disease. Chicken pox parties for children. And when my niece had scarlet fever, only symptom being a bright red face, they recommended sending her to playgroup as usual because so everyone could get it.
But how would you then stop 20-40 year olds infecting other age groups, especially as many will be living with parents?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:37 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:28 am
That is certainly an argument for 20-40 year olds to get out there and catch the disease now, while it is essentially harmless to them. (And before you quote the 40 cases of people under 40 who have died of coronavirus without underlying conditions, I could point out that the annual number who die of flu and pneumonia in that group is significantly higher.) If I was aged 20-40 I would be wanting to catch it now in hopes that it would give a degree of immunity to this hypothetical mutation.

It is an established medical principle to deliberately allow people to be infected by disease. Chicken pox parties for children. And when my niece had scarlet fever, only symptom being a bright red face, they recommended sending her to playgroup as usual because so everyone could get it.
No. Lots of younger people catching it would spread it to the people who would die in greater numbers, and also give the virus more opportunities to mutate into something more deadly. Just as getting a flu jab won’t 100% stop you from getting the flu, allowing this virus to stay among us and mutate will keep it with us ever mutating forever.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:06 am

Grumps wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:46 am
Whatever happened in 1918 is totally irrelevant as to what will or won't happen in 2020
Things have moved on a little since then, housing conditions, work place conditions, better health care, more hospitals, better communication advising people what to do and what not to do.

In 1918 there would be no social distancing, no hand sanitisers in public places, no lockdowns.... I could go on, but iam sure you get the idea.
It’s not “totally irrelevant” because our death toll so far is similar to what it was in the first wave of 1918. The second wave then was so deadly people died within hours of first symptoms. There’s no guarantee a second wave this time would be as bad, but then we don’t know it won’t, or that a third or fourth wave won’t hit us. Things have moved on - we actually know what a virus is now - however without the appropriate government action, we could suffer many more deaths. That is the government getting on top of this, so that unlike the last few months we actually have PPE, tests, a working tracing and tracking system, a plan, an app, a working strategy to protect the vulnerable - because we can’t let them fob us off again.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:11 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:37 am
No. Lots of younger people catching it would spread it to the people who would die in greater numbers, and also give the virus more opportunities to mutate into something more deadly. Just as getting a flu jab won’t 100% stop you from getting the flu, allowing this virus to stay among us and mutate will keep it with us ever mutating forever.
On the other hand, staying in lockdown until coronavirus has gone away will result in very much lower life expectancy throughout the world. When do we start to accept the risk? The loss of education for children is already absurd and it looks like it will still be dumbed-down even after September. This can't go on.

If you don't want to allow this virus to stay among us, what is the alternative? Tell it to go away because it's naughty? The virus is here; we do not have any choice but to allow it to stay. Polio took decades to eliminate even when there was a reliable vaccine. Shutting ourselves away until this virus disappears is not an option.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by summitclaret » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:12 am

Massive increase in cases in Lancs when pillar 2 tests included. However, they are NOT all new cases. They have all been added at once historically.

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... n=sharebar

Burnley now 493 per 100,000. So approx 100 people on the Turf for a PL game will have had it
Last edited by summitclaret on Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:22 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:13 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:06 am
It’s not “totally irrelevant” because our death toll so far is similar to what it was in the first wave of 1918. The second wave then was so deadly people died within hours of first symptoms. There’s no guarantee a second wave this time would be as bad, but then we don’t know it won’t, or that a third or fourth wave won’t hit us. Things have moved on - we actually know what a virus is now - however without the appropriate government action, we could suffer many more deaths. That is the government getting on top of this, so that unlike the last few months we actually have PPE, tests, a working tracing and tracking system, a plan, an app, a working strategy to protect the vulnerable - because we can’t let them fob us off again.
Sorry, but you cannot compare the two, other than to give you a platform to have a go at the government

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:57 am

Grumps wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:46 am
Whatever happened in 1918 is totally irrelevant as to what will or won't happen in 2020
Things have moved on a little since then, housing conditions, work place conditions, better health care, more hospitals, better communication advising people what to do and what not to do.

In 1918 there would be no social distancing, no hand sanitisers in public places, no lockdowns.... I could go on, but iam sure you get the idea.
It's true that that things have moved on a lot since then. In those days they no vaccine and did not even have antibiotics.

But the idea that there were no lockdowns or restrictions to try to control the virus is 'historically incorrect'. There were lockdowns (albeit not a national one). It's all they had!

Following the release from lockdown people thought it was all over and restrictions were lifted. The problem that then emerged originated from a tiny corner of Eastern Europe where the virus mutated to a much more dangerous form. At the time there were large scale troop movements due to WW1 ending. The troops, returning home, took the virus all over the world.

Will something like this happen again? It didn't with SARS and MERS (the other coronavirus's) but this is no guarantee. If it did transmute to form a second wave it would likely be in one region of the world and spread through international air travel. This is why strict rules about leaving and entering the country need to remain in place until the pandemic is over.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:05 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:11 am
Was going to post similar.

Science is way further along. Our access to information, medical treatments, conditions - both medical and at home.

Even things like nutrition.

Obviously the other factor is a lot of that 20 - 40 year old generation back then will have been at war too. That will have had a huge impact also.
A lot of things have moved on since 1918-19. We have made use of all sorts of equipment and treatments that wouldn't have been available at that time. Ventilators, kidney dialysis, oxygen, antibiotics for secondary infections, scanners and numerous other treatments. We also have a lot of knowledge about how virus's spread and measures to take to avoid it from spreading.

The other big factor is the advances in bio-technology that is enabling the rapid development of vaccines which will hopefully bring this pandemic to an end before Christmas.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:29 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:15 am
Exactly why actively trying to catch the disease isnt the best idea. Now or in the future. Id rather avoid it full stop.

That said I am sure for most of us it wont be an issue.
Whoever want's to actively try to catch this disease is a fool.

Besides death it can have numerous long term health consequences:
  • What initially appeared to be a predictable respiratory infection, similar to Sars or Avian flu, Sars-CoV-2 is now known to affect the lungs, brain, eyes, nose, heart, blood vessels, livers, kidneys and intestines — virtually every organ in the human body. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/hea ... 46671.html
COVID-19 can cause a range of symptoms of wildly varying severity in people. Some ... are sick enough to need hospitalisation, supplementary oxygen and the use of a ventilator. Broadly, as a respiratory virus, COVID-19 causes breathlessness, fatigue and muscle ache. As the pandemic has evolved and documented clinical case histories have accumulated, a new symptom began to emerge – the partial or total loss of the sense of taste and smell.

It’s now clear that the coronavirus doesn’t just attack the respiratory system, and some people have reported gut issues and problems with their kidneys. Severe COVID-19 patients have experienced what’s called a ‘cytokine storm’ in which the body’s immune system goes into a potentially fatal overdrive and leads to multi-organ failure. This has also been seen with influenza, SARS and MERS-CoV.

Many people have seen symptoms last for 8 to 10 weeks or longer, and symptoms can seem to go away only to come racing back. A research group at King’s College London, UK, developed a COVID-19 tracker app for people to record their symptoms daily, and estimated 200,000 have been reporting symptoms for the entire six weeks since the tracker was launched.
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/long- ... s-covid-19

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:31 am

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:23 am
Even my age group survival is way better than 50:50 but I think if you are 50+ the odds are much greater of pegging it. As I have posted elsewhere, once the 20-40's realise their relative immortality, a significant number will cock their noses up to social distancing in my opinion and that will lead to more spreading of the virus to that age group but also to their parents and grandparents and then more problems for the NHS.
On TV the other night (can't remember which programme) they were saying that in some of the world's hotspots the virus is moving on to younger age groups.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:39 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:11 am
On the other hand, staying in lockdown until coronavirus has gone away will result in very much lower life expectancy throughout the world. When do we start to accept the risk? The loss of education for children is already absurd and it looks like it will still be dumbed-down even after September. This can't go on.

If you don't want to allow this virus to stay among us, what is the alternative? Tell it to go away because it's naughty? The virus is here; we do not have any choice but to allow it to stay. Polio took decades to eliminate even when there was a reliable vaccine. Shutting ourselves away until this virus disappears is not an option.
I agree. We can't stay in lockdown that long. The problem is that we are leaving lockdown without a coherent 'containment strategy' and just relying on luck.

If we get a second spike the government will panic and take us back into lockdown. We don't want that. We need to get out and stay out. A containment strategy would achieve this but the government and their advisers don't seem capable of delivering it.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:55 am

Regarding pillar 2 data:

New Pillar 2 coronavirus data shows a 55 per cent rise in Coventry cases
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/ ... a-18527723

Revealed: Suffolk had 1,000 more coronavirus cases than reported at height of pandemic
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/suffolk-cor ... -1-6728426

New Pillar 2 testing data reveals York has had TWICE as many coronavirus cases as reported
https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/185520 ... -reported/

Hastings infection rate doubles as ‘pillar 2’ data added
https://www.ryeandbattleobserver.co.uk/ ... ed-2902689

And many more, if you do a Google.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:01 pm

First and foremost to containment is to observe social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and not to part of the crazy stupid gatherings on beaches, street parties, protest marches. The back up to that is testing and tracing. If we ignore the former the latter however good it is will be swamped and if folk don't self isolate properly when they feel fine but have the virus then we revert to the policy of let it go through the population until we have some herd immunity

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:10 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:31 am
On TV the other night (can't remember which programme) they were saying that in some of the world's hotspots the virus is moving on to younger age groups.
Younger groups have always been catching it. Just not suffering.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:11 pm

Anyway. It’s still going down. Pillar one or two or both.

Deaths are still going down.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:19 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:29 am
Whoever want's to actively try to catch this disease is a fool.
If you keep changing the question you don't get intelligence points for noticing that the answer has changed.

The hypothesis was that a second wave is pretty much inevitable and it will kill hundreds of thousands and be worse than the first wave. IF THAT IS TRUE, then it would be better for young people to get out and catch the first wave now. It's unreasonable to spread doom and gloom and disaster and then object when potential solutions for your problems are offered.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by JohnMac » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:26 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:46 am
In 1918 there would be no social distancing, no hand sanitisers in public places, no lockdowns.... I could go on, but iam sure you get the idea.
Too right Grumps, the world was completely different. Back then there was something wrong if you didn't have a fag sticking out of your mouth, including in hospital.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by summitclaret » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:37 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:55 am
Regarding pillar 2 data:

New Pillar 2 coronavirus data shows a 55 per cent rise in Coventry cases
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/ ... a-18527723

Revealed: Suffolk had 1,000 more coronavirus cases than reported at height of pandemic
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/suffolk-cor ... -1-6728426

New Pillar 2 testing data reveals York has had TWICE as many coronavirus cases as reported
https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/185520 ... -reported/

Hastings infection rate doubles as ‘pillar 2’ data added
https://www.ryeandbattleobserver.co.uk/ ... ed-2902689

And many more, if you do a Google.
It will have increased everywhere. It's historic cases which were only reported publicly at national level before. The good news generally is in the current cases are low and dropping almost everywhere. See 10.48 am on the link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53273883
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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:56 pm

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:07 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:19 pm
If you keep changing the question you don't get intelligence points for noticing that the answer has changed.

The hypothesis was that a second wave is pretty much inevitable and it will kill hundreds of thousands and be worse than the first wave. IF THAT IS TRUE, then it would be better for young people to get out and catch the first wave now. It's unreasonable to spread doom and gloom and disaster and then object when potential solutions for your problems are offered.
"Quick the volcano is erupting! Throw a couple more virgins on the fire".

I repeat, not under any circumstance, should any person (young old or whatever) seek to contract the virus. I think that this is an important point in it's own right. What sort of mindset would even consider this? Eugenicists? Goodness knows.

"IF THAT IS TRUE" - How can young people make the decision to try to get the virus when they don't know whether the proposition is going to be true or not at this point in time.

The hypothesis seems to be that 'young people should try to catch the virus now so that they can get immunity in case a second wave occurs that is more severe (that's if it it does happen and if immunity from the first wave confers immunity to the second wave and if a vaccine is not found in the meantime and if the pandemic has not already run it's course). If all young people deliberately try to get the virus a second spike is virtually guaranteed!

There is a difference between spreading 'doom and gloom' and warning people of the consequences of putting themselves in a position which could ruin the rest of their lives. If I am spreading doom and gloom the organisations that I have linked to are doing so also. These include the BBC, Healthline, The Daily Telegraph, The Independent, and King’s College London. Or maybe these organisations are putting facts into the public domain so that people are informed and can avoid making foolish decisions (that's if you are referring to my list of long term symptoms and not the posts about the Spanish Flue).

If someone thinks they know what will happen next they are fooling themselves. There is too much that is unknown.
A second wave (even a second spike) is not inevitable. No one knows what the next stage of this pandemic could be for the UK. There are a number of possible outcomes:
  • Virus has already run it's course in the UK and is virtually over at this point in time.
  • Virus stays around for a while slowly running it's course with slowly declining cases (as per last few weeks)
  • A second spike will occur in the next few weeks due to the release from lockdown, protests, seaside etc.
  • A second spike or wave will occur in the winter.
  • Virus has already run it's course in the UK but is now transmuting to a different form somewhere overseas. Allowing people to move in and out of the country without any restrictions, re-introduces the virus in a different form causing a second wave which may be more, or perhaps or less, deadly.
  • None of the above and some situation that confounds all predictions.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:16 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:56 pm
106741667_3700124173347574_2009232020171468291_o.jpg
I wondered why the number of cases had fallen on the Worldometers site.

We now seem to have three sets of figures. The ones prior to July 2, the revised down figures from July 2 onwards and the much higher figures being used by the professor from 'The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine' on Peston the other night. Everything is confusing about this pandemic at the moment.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:23 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:07 pm
"Quick the volcano is erupting! Throw a couple more virgins on the fire".

I repeat, not under any circumstance, should any person (young old or whatever) seek to contract the virus. I think that this is an important point in it's own right. What sort of mindset would even consider this? Eugenicists? Goodness knows.

"IF THAT IS TRUE" - How can young people make the decision to try to get the virus when they don't know whether the proposition is going to be true or not at this point in time.

The hypothesis seems to be that 'young people should try to catch the virus now so that they can get immunity in case a second wave occurs that is more severe (that's if it it does happen and if immunity from the first wave confers immunity to the second wave and if a vaccine is not found in the meantime and if the pandemic has not already run it's course). If all young people deliberately try to get the virus a second spike is virtually guaranteed!

There is a difference between spreading 'doom and gloom' and warning people of the consequences of putting themselves in a position which could ruin the rest of their lives. If I am spreading doom and gloom the organisations that I have linked to are doing so also. These include the BBC, Healthline, The Daily Telegraph, The Independent, and King’s College London. Or maybe these organisations are putting facts into the public domain so that people are informed and can avoid making foolish decisions (that's if you are referring to my list of long term symptoms and not the posts about the Spanish Flue).

If someone thinks they know what will happen next they are fooling themselves. There is too much that is unknown.
A second wave (even a second spike) is not inevitable. No one knows what the next stage of this pandemic could be for the UK. There are a number of possible outcomes:
  • Virus has already run it's course in the UK and is virtually over at this point in time.
  • Virus stays around for a while slowly running it's course with slowly declining cases (as per last few weeks)
  • A second spike will occur in the next few weeks due to the release from lockdown, protests, seaside etc.
  • A second spike or wave will occur in the winter.
  • Virus has already run it's course in the UK but is now transmuting to a different form somewhere overseas. Allowing people to move in and out of the country without any restrictions, re-introduces the virus in a different form causing a second wave which may be more, or perhaps or less, deadly.
  • None of the above and some situation that confounds all predictions.
Pretty much spot on.

No one in their right mind would have actively tried to contract HIV to avoid a second spike of that for example.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:25 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:16 pm
I wondered why the number of cases had fallen on the Worldometers site.

We now seem to have three sets of figures. The ones prior to July 2, the revised down figures from July 2 onwards and the much higher figures being used by the professor from 'The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine' on Peston the other night. Everything is confusing about this pandemic at the moment.
Is the one from The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the highest numbers?

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