Covid-19

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cricketfieldclarets
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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:28 pm

As my other posts. I think a lot of focus is going on the cases. Which to a degree is fair enough.

But look at America. Cases still increasing. But deaths still decreasing.

This means a few things:

* Cases going up isnt necessarily doomsday
* Testing will mean cases will go up
* The mortality rate is clearly much lower than its ever been suggested. This is clear from the wide gap between known cases and deaths (not to mention adding unknown cases in to the mix too).
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bfcmik
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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcmik » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:35 pm

"576 new cases and 89 new deaths in the United Kingdom. We have updated the methodology of reporting positive cases, to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Methodologies between nations differ and we will be making future revisions to align approaches as much as possible across the 4 nations.Due to this change, and a revision of historical data in pillar 1, the cumulative total for positive cases is 30,302 lower than if you added the daily figure to yesterday’s total.
Yesterday's https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ had this message in the daily report

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:44 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:25 pm
Is the one from The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the highest numbers?
Yes. The professor and Peston were talking on the basis that the current daily case rate is around 3,000.

I'm a bit puzzled by it all. Perhaps we're meant to be puzzled.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:48 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:44 pm
Yes. The professor and Peston were talking on the basis that the current daily case rate is around 3,000.

I'm a bit puzzled by it all. Perhaps we're meant to be puzzled.
Then I'll go with those numbers. Any number the government comes out with can't be believed.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcmik » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:55 pm

Not to defend the government, or Boris, in any way (to do so would be anathema to any soul I may or may not have) but when will this uptick in cases or deaths happen that has been forecast time and time again (often by the Professor from London) each time lockdown measures have been relaxed or we have crowd scenes such as those seen during the BLM and counter demonstrations or at various beaches, beauty spots and other illegal/ill-advised gatherings?

Localised outbreaks will always be around, I think, they happen for every other virus, no matter how common or well studied they may be. What needs to be watched in those localised outbreaks is the severity of the infections - is it just lots of people who are asymptomatic or with mild symptoms or is there a significant rise in the number of people requiring hospital treatment or even intensive care? The number of patients in England and Wales described as being serious has dropped by more than 50% in the last 3 weeks to 279.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mkmel » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:00 pm


FactualFrank
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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:07 pm

If that is correct, then they surely have no choice but to tighten up again.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:22 pm

Like I said on another thread. It's too early to open up the pubs for drinking inside. R-Rate hasn't flattened to where there's enough wiggle room to prevent a further spike. I hope I'm wrong, though.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcmik » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:37 pm

Lots of 'could be's, 'may-be's and 'if's in that article. Not a single IS or factual statement anywhere.

dsr
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:42 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:07 pm
If that is correct, then they surely have no choice but to tighten up again.
Absolutely. By the law of averages, of the 300 new cases in London, perhaps one of them will die. And as the R rate is estimated at 0.9, which might possibly if they're wrong be slightly over 1, that means that if they don't lockdown hard another Londoner might die next week.

I think they should keep London locked down until they can guarantee no Londoner will die next week.

Alternatively, they could recognise that at present coronavirus is doing far less damage than flu and pneumonia and let people live their lives. Or is it still believed that people going to work on the Tube are immune but people going to the pub on the Tube are in deadly danger?
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tybfc
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tybfc » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:58 pm

The R rate in London has today gone above 1

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:02 pm

tybfc wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:58 pm
The R rate in London has today gone above 1
The Mirror article linked above says it's between 0.8 and 1.1. Why are you confident it's above 1?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:03 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:55 pm
When will this uptick in cases or deaths happen that has been forecast time and time again (often by the Professor from London) each time lockdown measures have been relaxed or we have crowd scenes such as those seen during the BLM and counter demonstrations or at various beaches, beauty spots and other illegal/ill-advised gatherings?
Possibly by the end of July if it's going to happen. US states and Iran both started releasing from lockdown at the end of April. It was 6-8 weeks before case rates started rising in the US. Case rates in Iran started to rise almost as soon as the lockdown was released.

If it is going to happen, you would expect some sort of second spike from the European countries, that were two or three weeks ahead of us, first (that would be about now). I'm not sure just how much has gone on in Europe in the way of protests and other virus spreading activities though.

If it hasn't happened by early August I would suspect that the protests and other things did not have the effect predicted. Perhaps the virus didn't transmit well in the open air.

Failing the 'end of July second spike' the experts will then shift to the 'end of August second spike' caused by the release from lockdown in pubs, hairdressers, restaurants etc. Being indoors, the virus transmits more efficiently.

Failing the 'end of August second spike' the focus is likely to switch to the 'winter second spike' when the cold conditions and people being indoors more will create the ideal conditions for the virus to spread. They will say that this, together with the annual flue round will cause a plethora of 'doom and gloom'.

Others experts will be denying the possibility of a second spike at every stage. None of them know for certain. It is all theorising and bluster. One or two of them might end up making a correct guess though by luck or accident.

Another point is that there is a good chance of a vaccine in the autumn.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:14 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:03 pm
Others experts will be denying the possibility of a second spike at every stage.
I doubt that. You will find experts saying it isn't probable, but not saying that it isn't possible.

Why are we shut down now? If the current lockdown is because there is nothing serious happening now but it might happen in future, then they should say so. And why they think it might happen in future, and how likely they think it. The original cause of lockdown was to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. That cause has gone. So if they continue to restrict public liberty as they are doing, they need to say why.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:53 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:42 pm
Alternatively, they could recognise that at present coronavirus is doing far less damage than flu and pneumonia and let people live their lives. Or is it still believed that people going to work on the Tube are immune but people going to the pub on the Tube are in deadly danger?
Influenza is mainly an autumn and winter virus and is unlikely affecting many UK citizens, if any, at all at the moment. COVID-19 is still infecting thousands of people each week in the UK but less so than it was in April and May when it was infecting tens of thousands per week.
The flu is a highly contagious respiratory infection caused by the influenza virus. The virus causes seasonal epidemics of respiratory illness that occur during the fall and winter months.

Despite the seasonality of influenza activity, many people experience flu-like symptoms during the summer. Although the Centers for Disease Control and PreventionTrusted Source detect influenza viruses year-round, these symptoms may not be due to influenza infection. https://www.healthline.com/health/summ ... %20habits.
One of the main causes of people going into critical care with COVID-19 is that it causes pneumonia. It logically follows that many people who have pneumonia also have COVID-19.
Pneumonia is a severe lung infection. In some people, it can be fatal, especially among the elderly and those with respiratory disorders. COVID-19, the disease the novel coronavirus causes, can spread to the lungs, causing pneumonia. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... d-covid-19

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Re: Covid-19

Post by ksrclaret » Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:56 pm

The R rate in Germany was 2.88 for about 24 hours a couple of weeks ago. The media were falling over themselves to report the impending doom.

Two days later and it was back down at 0.6. Not a mention of that anywhere.

The R rate is a load of nonsense if that’s the only data you’re looking at.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:08 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:14 pm
I doubt that. You will find experts saying it isn't probable, but not saying that it isn't possible.

Why are we shut down now? If the current lockdown is because there is nothing serious happening now but it might happen in future, then they should say so. And why they think it might happen in future, and how likely they think it. The original cause of lockdown was to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed. That cause has gone. So if they continue to restrict public liberty as they are doing, they need to say why.
Yes, whatever they say they will be in opposition to those predicting the second spike. They may be right they may be wrong. Opinions are six a penny at the moment.

Why are we shut down now? Are we shut down now? I thought we were gradually releasing from lockdown and only partially shutdown. Anyway take your pick:
  • Because we haven't got an effective containment strategy that allows us to keep the economy open.
  • Because Thousands of citizens in the UK are being infected every week
  • Because Second spikes in other countries make a second spike possible here.
  • Because this is the advice from the experts who the government furnishes with high salaries to advise them.
  • Because unless we take appropriate cautions other countries will close their borders to us thus damaging our economy further.
  • Because a large proportion of the public are nervous about coming out of lockdown
  • Because two thirds of the public expect a second spike according to a recent poll.

KateR
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Re: Covid-19

Post by KateR » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:48 pm

No matter which way you look at it everyone needs to be careful because it's still around and certainly going backwards here, bar/pub owners were so happy 2 weeks ago, there were numerous flaunting the 50% rule and videos were shown on the local news, these were given shutdown orders, fined and apparently repeat offenders will lose the license to operate for 6 months. Yet the pictures and videos must have been obvious to those attending and they chose to ignore

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered face coverings to be worn in public as coronavirus cases rocket in the state.

The directive applies to counties with 20 or more Covid-19 cases, which covers most of Texas' 254 counties. Texas hit a record of more than 8,000 virus cases in a day on Wednesday, up from about 2,400 two weeks ago. Americans are about to mark the Fourth of July weekend, with some beaches coast to coast shut and fireworks displays cancelled. There have now been 2.7 million recorded infections nationwide and more than 128,000 deaths since the pandemic began.

What did the Texas governor say?
"Wearing a face covering will help us to keep Texas open for business," Mr Abbott said, announcing the order. After an initial warning, those who refuse will face a fine up to $250. "Let me be clear: no-one can ever be put in jail for violating this safe practice," the governor said.

"Covid-19 is not going away," Mr Abbott, a Republican, said on Thursday. "In fact it's getting worse." What's behind alarming new US outbreaks? Why this 4 July will be unlike any other. Warning that some hospital intensive care units were almost full, he added: "We are now at a point where the virus is spreading so fast there is little margin for error." The order includes a series of "common sense" exemptions, including children who are 10 years old or younger, those who have a medical condition that prevents them from wearing a mask, people who are eating or drinking and those who are exercising outdoors.

Texas is now one of 21 states that require mask wearing in public, according to Masks4All, a volunteer advocacy group.

Texas led the charge in US states loosening lockdown measures that were meant to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Mr Abbott allowed his initial stay-at-home order to expire on 30 April, with almost all businesses operating to at least 50% capacity by early June. But as the virus surged, Mr Abbott began to walk back his state's reopening last week, ordering all bars shut and cutting restaurant capacity from 75-50%. Mr Abbott had initially resisted a state-wide order on masks, going so far as to ban local governments from requiring facial coverings.

cricketfieldclarets
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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:22 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:03 pm
Possibly by the end of July if it's going to happen. US states and Iran both started releasing from lockdown at the end of April. It was 6-8 weeks before case rates started rising in the US. Case rates in Iran started to rise almost as soon as the lockdown was released.

If it is going to happen, you would expect some sort of second spike from the European countries, that were two or three weeks ahead of us, first (that would be about now). I'm not sure just how much has gone on in Europe in the way of protests and other virus spreading activities though.

If it hasn't happened by early August I would suspect that the protests and other things did not have the effect predicted. Perhaps the virus didn't transmit well in the open air.

Failing the 'end of July second spike' the experts will then shift to the 'end of August second spike' caused by the release from lockdown in pubs, hairdressers, restaurants etc. Being indoors, the virus transmits more efficiently.

Failing the 'end of August second spike' the focus is likely to switch to the 'winter second spike' when the cold conditions and people being indoors more will create the ideal conditions for the virus to spread. They will say that this, together with the annual flue round will cause a plethora of 'doom and gloom'.

Others experts will be denying the possibility of a second spike at every stage. None of them know for certain. It is all theorising and bluster. One or two of them might end up making a correct guess though by luck or accident.

Another point is that there is a good chance of a vaccine in the autumn.
I’ve a few friends in different spots of Europe. And none of them have seen any major resurgence.

Granted our idiots seem another level to theirs. But there were huge blm protests in Berlin. Not sure about rest of Europe.

Austria is as normal as can be expected with the exception of crowds.

Northern Italy is way ahead of where it was during the peak.

Balkans are pretty much BAU.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jrgbfc » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:27 pm

If all these protests don't cause a surge in cases then is there any reason fans can't start attending football again?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:29 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:22 pm
I’ve a few friends in different spots of Europe. And none of them have seen any major resurgence.

Granted our idiots seem another level to theirs. But there were huge blm protests in Berlin. Not sure about rest of Europe.

Austria is as normal as can be expected with the exception of crowds.

Northern Italy is way ahead of where it was during the peak.

Balkans are pretty much BAU.
You would expect that, if the second peak resulting from 'lockdown release' is going to happen here at the end of the month then it should be starting to happen in Europe over the next few days - if not now.

My best guess is that we will follow Europe but then again I have just read KateR's post from Texas and like you say "our idiots seem another level to theirs". There have been a couple of scares of a second spike in Germany and Spain but neither of them materialised into an uptrend.

I don't think that the pandemic is following any consistent logical pattern that can be mapped at the moment. Iran are back to April levels of cases following early release. Their 'fatality rates' peaked at the highest level for the pandemic on 29th June.

Spain, Italy and Belgium look to be bouncing along the bottom with no sign of an upturn. Germany and France are at slightly higher case rates than a couple of weeks ago but nothing to suggest a second spike.

Sweden's trend has been mainly upward since the pandemic began albeit at a slower rate than other European countries.

It's all looking like a 'dogs breakfast at the moment.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:53 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:27 pm
If all these protests don't cause a surge in cases then is there any reason fans can't start attending football again?
Lots of reasons:
  • Spike could arrive a bit later than expected.
  • The UK has no 'coherent containment plan yet'. If we had, 'attended football' and a lot of other things could return.
  • Contact tracing would be difficult but not impossible. If someone at the match tested positive to the virus shortly after the match, the club would need to give contact details of all other fans who sat in close proximity to the person. Contact tracing of who he/she came into contact with in other parts of the ground would not be possible.
  • Fans would need to wear face masks - this would be a difficult policy to enforce.
  • Singing and shouting projects virus particles a lot further. This together with seating arrangements would be conducive to virus spreading.
  • It would be difficult to stop fans mulling together in the 'partly enclosed' sections of the ground before the match and at half time. E.G. under the stands; around the TV's and coffee bars; toilets. etc.
  • Toilet facilities would need to be far cleaner than they currently are and also have some form of distanced queuing to enter them. I can't see this being achieved unless more toilets are built around the ground.
  • It would be virtually impossible to enforce social distancing and queuing.
  • Away fans travelling on coaches would need to wear masks during transit.
  • Fans are likely to congregate in small groups in pubs and coffee shops around the town before and after the match.
  • There might be the odd scallywag that tries to do something stupid like run on the pitch. Also possible groups of fans who decide they are going to ignore all distancing rules.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jrgbfc » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:10 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:53 pm
Lots of reasons:
  • Spike could arrive a bit later than expected.
  • The UK has no 'coherent containment plan yet'. If we had, 'attended football' and a lot of other things could return.
  • Contact tracing would be difficult but not impossible. If someone at the match tested positive to the virus shortly after the match, the club would need to give contact details of all other fans who sat in close proximity to the person. Contact tracing of who he/she came into contact with in other parts of the ground would not be possible.
  • Fans would need to wear face masks - this would be a difficult policy to enforce.
  • Singing and shouting projects virus particles a lot further. This together with seating arrangements would be conducive to virus spreading.
  • It would be difficult to stop fans mulling together in the 'partly enclosed' sections of the ground before the match and at half time. E.G. under the stands; around the TV's and coffee bars; toilets. etc.
  • Toilet facilities would need to be far cleaner than they currently are and also have some form of distanced queuing to enter them. I can't see this being achieved unless more toilets are built around the ground.
  • It would be virtually impossible to enforce social distancing and queuing.
  • Away fans travelling on coaches would need to wear masks during transit.
  • Fans are likely to congregate in small groups in pubs and coffee shops around the town before and after the match.
  • There might be the odd scallywag that tries to do something stupid like run on the pitch. Also possible groups of fans who decide they are going to ignore all distancing rules.
Yeah but apart from all that :lol: I still think fans will be back in grounds in some form by the autumn. Eventually money talks, and unless fans are allowed back in lots of non league and lower league clubs will go bust.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:14 pm

Experimental vaccine from Pfizer & BioNtech shows promise in early test
It looks like two vaccine shots will be required initially.
The messenger RNA product was tested on 45 healthy adults divided in several groups: 24 of them got two injections with two different doses of the experimental vaccine, 12 of them received a single shot with a very high dose and nine patients got two dummy injections. The two-shot groups produced the highest level of antibodies....

If the vaccine is successful, the companies expect to manufacture up to 100 million doses by the end of this year and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by the end of 2021. They would jointly to distribute the product worldwide except in China, where BioNTech has a collaboration with Fosun Pharma. https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/market ... r-BB16eJlh

cricketfieldclarets
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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:14 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:29 pm
You would expect that, if the second peak resulting from 'lockdown release' is going to happen here at the end of the month then it should be starting to happen in Europe over the next few days - if not now.

My best guess is that we will follow Europe but then again I have just read KateR's post from Texas and like you say "our idiots seem another level to theirs". There have been a couple of scares of a second spike in Germany and Spain but neither of them materialised into an uptrend.

I don't think that the pandemic is following any consistent logical pattern that can be mapped at the moment. Iran are back to April levels of cases following early release. Their 'fatality rates' peaked at the highest level for the pandemic on 29th June.

Spain, Italy and Belgium look to be bouncing along the bottom with no sign of an upturn. Germany and France are at slightly higher case rates than a couple of weeks ago but nothing to suggest a second spike.

Sweden's trend has been mainly upward since the pandemic began albeit at a slower rate than other European countries.

It's all looking like a 'dogs breakfast at the moment.
Another thing. Sweden cases increase and deaths decrease. Similar to America.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:16 pm

jrgbfc wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:10 pm
Yeah but apart from all that :lol: I still think fans will be back in grounds in some form by the autumn. Eventually money talks, and unless fans are allowed back in lots of non league and lower league clubs will go bust.
There's the possibility of a vaccine by October. The government might also 'get a grip' at some stage. So you never know. Here's hoping.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:20 pm

Coronavirus patient discharged from hospital after 90-day battlehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... -53286548

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:40 pm

Herd Immunity Policy is Unlikely to work according to research.

Research is showing that 'asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19' have very low levels of antibodies to fight off future infections. Forty per cent of the 'asymptomatic carriers' lost all of their antibodies within 8 weeks. 13% of people with symptoms also lose their antibodies within 8 weeks.

It looks like this is similar to the 'common cold' (which is also a type of coronavirus) in that the body becomes immune for a few months and is then vulnerable to another cold. Attempting the 'do nothing leave economy open approach' to achieve herd immunity will not work if this is the case.

We probably need:
  • Containment strategy until first vaccines.
  • Vaccines to get us over the sort term until a stronger vaccine is developed
  • Eventually receive a vaccine with a "stronger, longer-lived response" which is likely to be delivered later than the first vaccines.
A closer look at people who tested positive for COVID-19 but never developed symptoms has found that such asymptomatic carriers have few to no detectable antibodies just weeks after infection, suggesting they may not develop lasting immunity".

"Some countries such as Sweden and at least one Canadian province have previously suggested that one way to control the spread of COVID-19 is to allow most of the population to get infected in a controlled fashion to generate "herd immunity." Once the population reaches a certain threshold of previous infection, there won't be enough susceptible people to spread the virus, and it can't spread exponentially as an epidemic".

But Watts said the low and short-lived levels of antibodies in asymptomatic infections in this study suggest we can't rely on herd immunity being induced for long enough a period of time to have an impact. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptom ... -1.5629172

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:49 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:19 pm
The hypothesis was that a second wave is pretty much inevitable and it will kill hundreds of thousands and be worse than the first wave. IF THAT IS TRUE, then it would be better for young people to get out and catch the first wave now.
Here's one for you dsr.

Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected

"Students in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 have been attending parties in the city and surrounding area as part of what is being described as a disturbing contest to see who can catch the virus first, a city council member told ABC News on Wednesday.

Tuscaloosa City Councilor Sonya McKinstry said students have been organizing "COVID parties" as a game to intentionally infect each other with the contagion that has killed more than 127,000 people in the United States. She said she recently learned of the behavior and informed the city council of the parties occurring in the city.

She said the organizers of the parties are purposely inviting guests who have COVID-19.

"They put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense," McKinstry said. "They're intentionally doing it." https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-stude ... d=71552514

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:05 pm

Interesting what the chap on Newsnight just said. That if the track and trace isn't done quickly enough then he expects a second wave at the turn of the year in early January, with just under 7000 more deaths.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:27 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:05 pm
Interesting what the chap on Newsnight just said. That if the track and trace isn't done quickly enough then he expects a second wave at the turn of the year in early January, with just under 7000 more deaths.
You can't shut down the economy because of the fear of 7,000 deaths caused by respiratory disease. That's how many flu and pneumonia kill in a fortnight in winter. And then again the next fortnight, and the next, and the next. If it were announced that flu and pneumonia were going to kill 7,000 people this winter, there would be dancing in the streets celebrating that we had almost conquered death.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:29 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:53 pm
Influenza is mainly an autumn and winter virus and is unlikely affecting many UK citizens, if any, at all at the moment. COVID-19 is still infecting thousands of people each week in the UK but less so than it was in April and May when it was infecting tens of thousands per week.
That's true. Flu and pneumonia average 2,000 deaths per week over the whole year, but that's going to be 4,000 per week in winter and next to none in summer. Broadly speaking. It's why winter deaths are so much higher than summer over all causes.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:42 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:29 pm
That's true. Flu and pneumonia average 2,000 deaths per week over the whole year, but that's going to be 4,000 per week in winter and next to none in summer. Broadly speaking. It's why winter deaths are so much higher than summer over all causes.
Average annual Fatality rate from flue in UK between 2014/15 and 2018/19 = 17,000 (Public Health England)
17,000/52 = 327 per week
Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus ... influenza/
UK official fatality rate for COVID-19 February 2020 - July 2020 is 44,131
44,131/23 weeks = 1919 per week
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Flue 327 per week
Covid 1919 per week

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:50 am

Is that flues being erected or pulled down? :D :D :D
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:07 am

A few other reasons why COVID-19 is more deadly than influenza:
  • There is no current vaccine or cure for COVID-19
  • COVID-19 is a disease that currently has a lot of unknown factors.
  • COVID-19 appears to spread in both hot and cold climates. However, it is more infectious in the cold.
  • The mortality rates for COVID-19 are higher than flue but are falling as we find ways to treat it.
  • COVID-19 has overwhelmed the Health Services in countries such as Italy, Spain and now the USA.
  • COVID-19 is the cause of the current global pandemic. Influenza has not caused a global pandemic of this magnitude for over a hundred years.
Since 2015 seasonal flu is estimated to have killed about 17,000 in Britain per year. Covid-19 has been linked to more than 44,000 deaths so far and there have been more than 240,000 laboratory-confirmed cases.

So which is more dangerous? From the data available so far, Covid-19 appears to kill more of those who become infected. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how- ... -tlpnwxg89

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:15 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:29 pm
That's true. Flu and pneumonia average 2,000 deaths per week over the whole year, but that's going to be 4,000 per week in winter and next to none in summer. Broadly speaking. It's why winter deaths are so much higher than summer over all causes.
Flu and pneumonia average nowhere near 2,000 deaths per week over the whole year in the UK. The very worst year for seasonal flue in recent years was 2014/15 when the average was 545 per week (you normally record figures from mid year to mid year so that you cover the whole flue season).

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:23 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:27 pm
You can't shut down the economy because of the fear of 7,000 deaths caused by respiratory disease. That's how many flu and pneumonia kill in a fortnight in winter. And then again the next fortnight, and the next, and the next. If it were announced that flu and pneumonia were going to kill 7,000 people this winter, there would be dancing in the streets celebrating that we had almost conquered death.
Flu does not kill 7000 people per week in winter.

Take the worst flue season from recent times (2014/15) - 28,330 flu fatalities. If you include the winter months as being a 6 month period (Oct-Mar): 28,330/31weeks = 914 per week

If you include just 4 months as being the winter flue season (Nov-Feb): 28,330/18 = 1574 per week.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:25 am


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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:00 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:27 pm
You can't shut down the economy because of the fear of 7,000 deaths caused by respiratory disease. That's how many flu and pneumonia kill in a fortnight in winter. And then again the next fortnight, and the next, and the next. If it were announced that flu and pneumonia were going to kill 7,000 people this winter, there would be dancing in the streets celebrating that we had almost conquered death.
"We will take it on the chin in one blow as it were and allow the disease to move through the population"

The reasons that lockdown was instituted occurred over one weekend in mid March. At this time we were using the 'do nothing leave economy open approach' to achieve 'herd immunity'. As Borris said "we will take it on the chin in one blow as it were and allow the disease to move through the population" (stated on ITV's This Morning Programme).

Over that weekend one of the London Hospitals became overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases. The Conservative party could visualise next weeks headlines if this was repeated around the country (NHS Collapses under the Tories). In the same weekend the French had warned that they were set to close their border to the UK which would have spelt disaster for the UK economy - especially if other countries followed. The case rate doubled over the weekend. Lockdown was announced.

The economy wasn't totally shut down. That's a fallacy. Many sectors of the economy remained open.
  • We still imported goods to stock our supermarket shelves.
  • Supermarkets, Chemists and other essential shops remained open
  • Goods and food deliveries not only remained open but expanded.
  • The power companies and utilities remained open to supply Electricity, gas and water.
  • Refuge collection continued.
  • You could still purchase Insurance and use your bank.
  • Internet service providers and telephone companies remained open.
  • You could still buy petrol and use the roads
  • Public transport operated at a reduced rate
If we have a second spike as bad as the first the government will do it all again because they have no coherent containment policy yet.

I repeat a information that I made a few posts ago:

Herd Immunity Policy is Unlikely to work according to research.

Research is showing that 'asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19' have very low levels of antibodies to fight off future infections. Forty per cent of the 'asymptomatic carriers' lost all of their antibodies within 8 weeks. 13% of people with symptoms also lose their antibodies within 8 weeks.

It looks like this is similar to the 'common cold' (which is also a type of coronavirus) in that the body becomes immune for a few months and is then vulnerable to another cold. Attempting the 'do nothing leave economy open approach' to achieve herd immunity will not work if this is the case.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:46 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:05 pm
Interesting what the chap on Newsnight just said. That if the track and trace isn't done quickly enough then he expects a second wave at the turn of the year in early January, with just under 7000 more deaths.
I don't know how he makes that estimate but I think that he is right about 'Track and Trace'. Like everything else in a pandemic it needs to be fast and efficient. If we achieve that, get the App and make 'mask wearing' compulsory in public places we would have a 'containment strategy' that will see us through to 'full vaccination' without these stupid lockdowns.

I believe that the government are now going to use the ah um German App. At least one poster on here suggested this a few weeks ago.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:15 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:42 am
Average annual Fatality rate from flue in UK between 2014/15 and 2018/19 = 17,000 (Public Health England)
17,000/52 = 327 per week



UK official fatality rate for COVID-19 February 2020 - July 2020 is 44,131
44,131/23 weeks = 1919 per week
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Flue 327 per week
Covid 1919 per week
You aren't comparing like with like. For one thing, you are ignoring pneumonia. Official stats usually put the two together because it's hard to tell one from t'other.

But even more crucially, the figures you are using for flu are the number of people who have died of flu who would have lived as long as the rest of us if they hadn't caught flu. In other words, your flu stats are for people with no underlying conditions. Whereas your covid stats are for people who died with covid regardless of whether it was the sole cause of death, a conftributory or "hurrying along" cause of death, or nothing to do with the death at all.

Have you got any stats for people who dies of covid as a primary cause or without any other cause? The flu and pneumonia stats come from death certificates; covid stats should be available from the same source, if they are separately published.

About one sixth of flu/pneumonia deaths are where flu/pneumonia was the primary or sole cause. I believe covid is about the same proportion, give or take.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:00 pm

What are the rules for quarantine now if you come back from America?
Is it 14 days?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:03 pm

dsr wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:15 pm
You aren't comparing like with like. For one thing, you are ignoring pneumonia. Official stats usually put the two together because it's hard to tell one from t'other.

But even more crucially, the figures you are using for flu are the number of people who have died of flu who would have lived as long as the rest of us if they hadn't caught flu. In other words, your flu stats are for people with no underlying conditions. Whereas your covid stats are for people who died with covid regardless of whether it was the sole cause of death, a conftributory or "hurrying along" cause of death, or nothing to do with the death at all.

Have you got any stats for people who dies of covid as a primary cause or without any other cause? The flu and pneumonia stats come from death certificates; covid stats should be available from the same source, if they are separately published.

About one sixth of flu/pneumonia deaths are where flu/pneumonia was the primary or sole cause. I believe covid is about the same proportion, give or take.
The stats are from government sources. Public health England. I think that, like you, everyone has issues with stats at the moment. However, I do trust those flu stats since they are now 'historic data' and would likely have been exposed if they were wrong. They are much lower than the figures that you cited. Where did you get those figures from (link please)?

When someone dies from Influenza they too can have other contributory factors to the fatality. That is why Influenza vaccines are offered to the vulnerable and elderly in the autumn. The problem with Covid is that there is not yet a vaccine. That is one of the reasons why it is so lethal. It is much more lethal than the flu.

I don't think that you understand the difference between Influenza and pneumonia.

Influenza and pneumonia are not the same thing. Influenza and covid are viruses. Pneumonia is a condition in the lungs caused by inflamation. Pneumonia is usually caused by a bacterial infection. Pneumonia can also result when the body has trouble shaking off a virus. The NHS put it in the following way:
Pneumonia is swelling (inflammation) of the tissue in one or both lungs. It's usually caused by a bacterial infection. It can also be caused by a virus, such as coronavirus (COVID-19).https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/pneumonia/
There are several causes to pneumonia (flu is just one of them). Again I refer to the NHS for the causes of Pneumonia:
Pneumonia is usually the result of a bacterial infection.

As well as bacterial pneumonia, other types include:

viral pneumonia – caused by a virus, such as coronavirus
aspiration pneumonia – caused by breathing in vomit, a foreign object, such as a peanut, or a harmful substance, such as smoke or a chemical
fungal pneumonia – rare in the UK and more likely to affect people with a weakened immune system
hospital-acquired pneumonia – pneumonia that develops in hospital while being treated for another condition or having an operation; people in intensive care on breathing machines are particularly at risk of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/pneumonia/
It would give a lot more weight to your arguments if you use links and get a bit of knowledge about the concepts that you refer too.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:21 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:03 pm
The stats are from government sources. Public health England. I think that, like you, everyone has issues with stats at the moment. However, I do trust those flu stats since they are now 'historic data' and would likely have been exposed if they were wrong. They are much lower than the figures that you cited. Where did you get those figures from (link please)?

When someone dies from Influenza they too can have other contributory factors to the fatality. That is why Influenza vaccines are offered to the vulnerable and elderly in the autumn. The problem with Covid is that there is not yet a vaccine. That is one of the reasons why it is so lethal. It is much more lethal than the flu.

I don't think that you understand the difference between Influenza and pneumonia.

Influenza and pneumonia are not the same thing. Influenza and covid are viruses. Pneumonia is a condition in the lungs caused by inflamation. Pneumonia is usually caused by a bacterial infection. Pneumonia can also result when the body has trouble shaking off a virus. The NHS put it in the following way:


There are several causes to pneumonia (flu is just one of them). Again I refer to the NHS for the causes of Pneumonia:



It would give a lot more weight to your arguments if you use links and get a bit of knowledge about the concepts that you refer too.
There is a difference between dying because of flu and dying with flu as a contributory factor. The table is at the bottom of this link and it shows, from 2015 to 2017, an average of 94,000 people per year dying in England with flu or pneumonia on the death certificate (table 3). Gross that up to include the colonies and we would get over 2,000 per week in the UK. All deaths of anyone with flu are included, just as your 40,000+ coronavirus deaths includes all deaths of people with coronavirus. And they do have this in common, that in many cases the disease is the immediate cause of carrying off someone who is on the pathway to death in any case.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2015to2017

I didn't claim or believe that flu and pneumonia are the same thing. I said that the numbers are often added together because of the difficulty of telling one from the other. If you want to patronise someone about not knowing the difference, I suggest you get onto the Office for National Statistics.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:53 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:00 pm
What are the rules for quarantine now if you come back from America?
Is it 14 days?
Life inside.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:41 pm

dsr wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:21 pm
There is a difference between dying because of flu and dying with flu as a contributory factor. The table is at the bottom of this link and it shows, from 2015 to 2017, an average of 94,000 people per year dying in England with flu or pneumonia on the death certificate (table 3). Gross that up to include the colonies and we would get over 2,000 per week in the UK. All deaths of anyone with flu are included, just as your 40,000+ coronavirus deaths includes all deaths of people with coronavirus. And they do have this in common, that in many cases the disease is the immediate cause of carrying off someone who is on the pathway to death in any case.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2015to2017

I didn't claim or believe that flu and pneumonia are the same thing. I said that the numbers are often added together because of the difficulty of telling one from the other. If you want to patronise someone about not knowing the difference, I suggest you get onto the Office for National Statistics.
Table 3 Column totals Male + Female / 23 for each winter flue season (Mid October to End of March).
2015 Total for year:.102,507... Total per week during flue season 4,457 (Oct-Mar flue season)
2016 Total for year:..96,031... Total per week during flue season 4,175 (Oct-Mar flue season)
2017 Total for year:..94,911... Total per week during flue season 4,126 (Oct-Mar flue season)

I can now see where you get the 4,000 per week from. However, like with COVID many of these deaths are with flu or pneumonia as a contributory factor only (not the cause or even underlying cause). In addition to this, as I keep saying, not all pneumonia is caused by flu although I can see that it would often be difficult to distinguish between the two. Your right, I shouldn't be making making assumptions about you not knowing the difference between flu and pneumonia. But by the same token you cannot assume that all pneumonia is related to flue.

Refering back to the NHS:
Pneumonia is usually the result of a bacterial infection.

As well as bacterial pneumonia, other types include:

viral pneumonia – caused by a virus, such as coronavirus
aspiration pneumonia – caused by breathing in vomit, a foreign object, such as a peanut, or a harmful substance, such as smoke or a chemical
fungal pneumonia – rare in the UK and more likely to affect people with a weakened immune system
hospital-acquired pneumonia – pneumonia that develops in hospital while being treated for another condition or having an operation; people in intensive care on breathing machines are particularly at risk of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/pneumonia/
Also, 2015 was a particularly bad year for flu.

This leads to the assertion that you need additional information to back up your claims that Flu causes 4 thousand fatalities per week during winter. You also need to take an average from a longer period and be as 'up to date' as possible.
Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus ... nfluenza/
Average annual Fatality rate from flue in UK between 2014/15 and 2018/19 = 17,000 (Public Health England)
17,000/23 = 739 per week

It doesn't look like there is any hard data on flu numbers (as a single data category). It is mixed up with pneumonia because flu often leads to pneumonia (like several other causes including Covid). You would expect Public Health England to be able to make a reasonable estimate in order to determine the real numbers for flu over the last five years. That's what they have done. 739 per week in the winter. In most years Flu kills nowhere near 4000 per week in the winter.

Notes:
UK winter flue season.
Most surgeries and pharmacists start to offer the jab in late September or early October. It takes up to 14 days for the vaccine to take effect, so it's best to have it as early as possible. But the flu season lasts until the end of March, so it's well worth protecting yourself up until then.
https://www.ageuk.org.uk/information-ad ... revention/

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Re: Covid-19

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:43 pm

UnderSeige, I have to say it... it's flu, not flue.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:44 pm

No deaths recorded in Scotland today, and only 11 new cases reported.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:47 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:43 pm
UnderSeige, I have to say it... it's flu, not flue.
At least I didn't get the bird for saying flew. :)
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Re: Covid-19

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:24 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:44 pm
No deaths recorded in Scotland today, and only 11 new cases reported.
great news. Long may it continue.
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