Covid-19

[cricketfieldclarets]

More info: It's a YouGov Poll.
Professor on the programme says that in order to be safe and efficient any vaccine needs at least 2 and a half years in trials and development. He also argues that it must be made available to the whole population at the same time. At least 80-90% of the population needs to be vaccinated for it to be effective.

Apparently there is a strong anti-vaccine lobby.

People are ringing in to confirm that they will not be taking the vaccine.

You can understand peoples scepticism - you have to weigh up the risk vs reward for yourself.

Myself being young(ish), fit and healthy with no known health conditions I personally wouldnt take the vaccine.

That said, people saying it needs 2+ years of research before its safe are overlooking one key thing. There have been literally millions of man hours of research focussed on this vaccine program. While 2+ years in 'normal' circumstances may be the norm. There has clearly been way more than the norm invested in this.

The only thing that they cant do is provide results on long term side effects.

If I was in a high risk category and the vaccine had been proven to be safe to go to market I wouldnt have an issue taking it.

[martin_p]

There's certainly no risk of our government doing anything at lightning speed. I suppose if you wait 6 months to do anything, there's always the chance that the position will change and you won't have to do anything then either.

If there is a serious chance that schools will be shut again for a second wave, then they ought to be open now and stay open all summer. This attitude of "children have already lost 4 months' education so what does another two matter" is appalling.

They won’t be losing another two, it’s the school holidays.

[martin_p]

You can understand peoples scepticism - you have to weigh up the risk vs reward for yourself.

Myself being young(ish), fit and healthy with no known health conditions I personally wouldnt take the vaccine.

That said, people saying it needs 2+ years of research before its safe are overlooking one key thing. There have been literally millions of man hours of research focussed on this vaccine program. While 2+ years in 'normal' circumstances may be the norm. There has clearly been way more than the norm invested in this.

The only thing that they cant do is provide results on long term side effects.

If I was in a high risk category and the vaccine had been proven to be safe to go to market I wouldnt have an issue taking it.

It’s not about risk/reward for yourself, for vaccination programmes to be successful for the whole community they need people to be taking part.

[martin_p]

LBC News have just this minute reported that a number of pubs have closed due to outbreaks of COVID-19. They are now undergoing deep cleaning.

My comment: Would the virus have had time to incubate since Saturday. I don't understand how they found this out so quickly.

It hasn’t had time to incubate, it means someone who was at the pub has received a positive test result since Saturday so the pub has had to close and anyone else there contacted. Given the turnaround time on tests it means it’s almost certain people have been to these pubs having already been tested but not received the results. That seems utterly selfish and completely lacking in any common sense to me.

[Erasmus]

There is a very real issue with children as potential spreaders of the virus. Many parents are in high risk groups and many children live in the same households as elderly grandparents. Speaking personally, I am in the very high risk group and have been shielding. My children are 8 and 16 and I would like to be aware of the extent of the risk I am facing when they go back into education. Should I allow them to go back and accept an unknown level of risk? I am sure there are many, many families in the same position.

[cricketfieldclarets]

It’s not about risk/reward for yourself, for vaccination programmes to be successful for the whole community they need people to be taking part.

I am sorry but it is.

I think a successful vaccine is important. And I am a pro vaxxer.

However I personally wouldn't take any vaccine released this year. And as above for the risk vs reward reasons alone.

[martin_p]

I am sorry but it is.

I think a successful vaccine is important. And I am a pro vaxxer.

However I personally wouldn't take any vaccine released this year. And as above for the risk vs reward reasons alone.

You can’t claim to be pro-vaxxer then refuse to take the vaccine using exactly the same arguments (it might not be safe even though it’s been approved) that anti-vaxxers use.

[cricketfieldclarets]

You can’t claim to be pro-vaxxer then refuse to take the vaccine using exactly the same arguments (it might not be safe even though it’s been approved) that anti-vaxxers use.

Well yes, I can. I just did.

[martin_p]

Well yes, I can. I just did.

Yes, but don’t expect anyone to believe you’re pro vaccine.

[dsr]

They won’t be losing another two, it’s the school holidays.

Let me rephrase it in simpler terms. The attitude that children have already lost 4 months education so it doesn't matter if we wait two more months without giving them any education, is a poor one.

Sorry for any confusion.

[martin_p]

Let me rephrase it in simpler terms. The attitude that children have already lost 4 months education so it doesn't matter if we wait two more months without giving them any education, is a poor one.

Sorry for any confusion.

Many children will have been learning at home, although I accept that some of the most vulnerable won’t. Expecting them to go to school rather than (try to) enjoy some downtime over the summer, especially as things are opening up and family holidays can happen, could be more damaging.

[UnderSeige]

There's certainly no risk of our government doing anything at lightning speed. I suppose if you wait 6 months to do anything, there's always the chance that the position will change and you won't have to do anything then either.

If there is a serious chance that schools will be shut again for a second wave, then they ought to be open now and stay open all summer. This attitude of "children have already lost 4 months' education so what does another two matter" is appalling.

That sounds very sensible. There is less chance of virus spread in the summer. But I would say best of luck to any authorities who try to enforce 'summer school'.

Chris Martenson was talking about government responses in a pandemic. He talked about 'Fast or Slow' and 'Strong or weak'. I would add 'Smart or Dumb' to the list.

A good example of 'slow, weak and dumb' would be Brazil at the moment where President Jair Bolsonaro is now displaying COVID-19 symptoms and has had to be tested.

Coronavirus: Brazil becomes second country to pass 50,000 deaths. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53132225

I think that some of Donald Trump's suggestions had more than a tinge of 'dumb' to them as well. Also those who think that they know what is going to happen next. The government's 'stay alert' slogan is good. I hope they do it.

A good example of 'Fast and Strong' would be New Zealand which quickly partially closed the economy and restricted travel. This was a brilliant success in medical terms and also enabled them to open the economy earlier. There was a tinge of 'dumb' though in that they had to shut it down in the first place.

A good example of 'Quick, strong and smart' would be South Korea and several other Asian countries who had experienced pandemics with SARS and MERS previously. They did a fantastic job with contact tracing and mask wearing. Economic shutdown was limited to one city. Measures were taken to prevent Mass Gatherings but the economy remained broadly open. Truly world beating.

Good examples of 'slow, strong and dumb' would be Belgium, Italy, Spain, the UK and some other European countries. Dumb because they had to partially shut down their economies and education service. Slow because they had no containment plan and the virus exploded into exponential growth. Strong because they imposed lockdowns which brought the virus under control.

I think that Martensons idea could be a good aid to developing policy within a pandemic.

• Is the policy fast, smart and strong - do it

• Is the policy slow, dumb or weak - don't do it

[RammyClaret61]

Here in Melbourne Australia. We’ve just been put back into lockdown. This for the next 6 weeks from midnight tonight, 5 hours from now. We recorded 191 new cases in last 24 hours. The most we’ve recorded throughout the pandemic.

Here we go again.

[UnderSeige]

You can understand peoples scepticism - you have to weigh up the risk vs reward for yourself.

Myself being young(ish), fit and healthy with no known health conditions I personally wouldnt take the vaccine.

That said, people saying it needs 2+ years of research before its safe are overlooking one key thing. There have been literally millions of man hours of research focussed on this vaccine program. While 2+ years in 'normal' circumstances may be the norm. There has clearly been way more than the norm invested in this.

The only thing that they cant do is provide results on long term side effects.

If I was in a high risk category and the vaccine had been proven to be safe to go to market I wouldnt have an issue taking it.

In addition to the large amount of resource that has been concentrated in this area is that a number of experts are underestimating the progress that has been made in the biotech industry over the last two decades.

For myself I would take it if I was confident that it would stop me from spreading the virus. From what I have read so far, the early vaccines are likely to be 'partially effective'. They are likely to prevent serious illness but will not fully stop it. A bit like reducing it to a bad cold.

[UnderSeige]

It’s not about risk/reward for yourself, for vaccination programmes to be successful for the whole community they need people to be taking part.

I think that we need around 70-80% immune to achieve the much coveted 'herd immunity'. One of the questions about the early vaccines is whether or not they will give full immunity. In particular, if they reduce symptoms to a mild level (likely) will they be strong enough to limit the virus from spreading?

The stronger more traditional vaccines are likely to achieve full immunity (for most) and stop the virus from spreading. These are probably going to be available later next year. In the meantime we may need repeat vaccinations during the winter.

[martin_p]

I think that we need around 70-80% immune to achieve the much coveted 'herd immunity'. One of the questions about the early vaccines is whether or not they will give full immunity. In particular, if they reduce symptoms to a mild level (likely) will they be strong enough to limit the virus from spreading?

The stronger more traditional vaccines are likely to achieve full immunity (for most) and stop the virus from spreading. These are probably going to be available later next year. In the meantime we may need repeat vaccinations during the winter.

You’re always going to need repeat vaccinations as the virus will mutate. That’s why you need a flu jab every year. It’s not going to be a case of once and done, it doesn’t work like that.

[UnderSeige]

It hasn’t had time to incubate, it means someone who was at the pub has received a positive test result since Saturday so the pub has had to close and anyone else there contacted. Given the turnaround time on tests it means it’s almost certain people have been to these pubs having already been tested but not received the results. That seems utterly selfish and completely lacking in any common sense to me.

That explains it. I think that it's just three pubs.

If it's found that someone went into the pub having been tested positive the pub should be notified so that the offender can be barred for life. This should be true for cinemas, cafe's, concert halls, theatres and sports grounds (when they open). I guess the data protection act will kybosh that idea though.

[tiger76]

That explains it. I think that it's just three pubs.

If it's found that someone went into the pub having been tested positive the pub should be notified so that the offender can be barred for life. This should be true for cinemas, cafe's, concert halls, theatres and sports grounds (when they open). I guess the data protection act will kybosh that idea though.

Yes if people who've tested positive aren't following the advice and self-isolating, but instead socialising in the community, what hope do we have of curtailing this virus, you can't blame the government for that, the advice has been clear on this, if you record a positive test, then you self-isolate for 14 days, clearly a few people don't give a s**t about their fellow citizens, and will just do as they wish, thankfully it's a tiny minority who have this attitude.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Yes, but don’t expect anyone to believe you’re pro vaccine.

It doesn't have to be black and white.

[UnderSeige]

There is a very real issue with children as potential spreaders of the virus. Many parents are in high risk groups and many children live in the same households as elderly grandparents. Speaking personally, I am in the very high risk group and have been shielding. My children are 8 and 16 and I would like to be aware of the extent of the risk I am facing when they go back into education. Should I allow them to go back and accept an unknown level of risk? I am sure there are many, many families in the same position.

At the current time, in the current climate, the risk does not seem very high. If social distancing in the classroom can be achieved with classroom windows open to allow fresh air in it might be OK.

The danger occurs in winter. We already know that there are certain environments where the virus thrives. Food processing plants (especially meat) in which the temperature is kept very low and workers come into close contact with each other.

We already know that the virus thrives in cold frosty conditions. We know that close contact enables it to spread. Could it be that the virus is more contagious in children if the conditions are optimum for it? Children walking down the street on a cold frosty morning with runny noses and then entering a building with windows and doors closed and in a situation in which it is difficult to maintain social distancing could be a different proposition.

It is not certain that the virus could transmit more readily between children in winter. After all they will be in the open air in frosty conditions. At this point in time we just don't know. Neither do we know whether the virus will mutate. The authorities will need to act rapidly if such a situation starts to appear on the radar. The knowledge that a 'Fast and strong response' would be implemented at the first sign of a problem should help to give parents and teachers more confidence.

Parents are naturally protective of their children. The government could get into a difficult situation this winter if does not gain the trust of those parents now.

[UnderSeige]

You’re always going to need repeat vaccinations as the virus will mutate. That’s why you need a flu jab every year. It’s not going to be a case of once and done, it doesn’t work like that.

What I mean is that you will likely need repeat vaccines throughout the winter. Pfizers recent trial showed that two initial medium strength dose vaccines worked much better than one strong dose.

Also there has been research into how long antibodies remain in the system before the body starts to discard them following someone contracting the illness. 40% of respondents lost their antibodies within two months. The first vaccines, if successful might not cover the whole winter.

Having said that AstraZenica have said they expect their vaccine to last for 12 months.


https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/markets ... r-BB16eJlh

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptom ... -1.5629172

[dsr]

At the current time, in the current climate, the risk does not seem very high. If social distancing in the classroom can be achieved with classroom windows open to allow fresh air in it might be OK.

The danger occurs in winter. We already know that there are certain environments where the virus thrives. Food processing plants (especially meat) in which the temperature is kept very low and workers come into close contact with each other.

We already know that the virus thrives in cold frosty conditions. We know that close contact enables it to spread. Could it be that the virus is more contagious in children if the conditions are optimum for it? Children walking down the street on a cold frosty morning with runny noses and then entering a building with windows and doors closed and in a situation in which it is difficult to maintain social distancing could be a different proposition.

It is not certain that the virus could transmit more readily between children in winter. After all they will be in the open air in frosty conditions. At this point in time we just don't know. Neither do we know whether the virus will mutate. The authorities will need to act rapidly if such a situation starts to appear on the radar. The knowledge that a 'Fast and strong response' would be implemented at the first sign of a problem should help to give parents and teachers more confidence.

Parents are naturally protective of their children. The government could get into a difficult situation this winter if does not gain the trust of those parents now.

So back to school in September, on a part-time basis perhaps, and then shut down again at the end of October? Until next May, perhaps, when they open for a couple of months before the long summer holiday? Not ideal, is it.

[UnderSeige]

So back to school in September, on a part-time basis perhaps, and then shut down again at the end of October? Until next May, perhaps, when they open for a couple of months before the long summer holiday? Not ideal, is it.

No.

[UnderSeige]

BBC Lunchtime News reporting that one in ten COVID sufferers are facing long term health conditions.
"Coronavirus: Thousands say debilitating symptoms last 'for weeks'. Extreme fatigue, nausea, chest tightness, severe headaches, "brain fog" and limb pains are among the recurring symptoms described by some sufferers of Covid-19 for weeks - and even months - after their diagnosis....They call themselves "long-haulers" and their symptoms persist long after the 14-day period that's officially said to be the average length of the illness". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53269391

Daily Telegraph reporting: "Healthy people, who were in their 40s and 50s when the virus struck, are now facing anxiety, chronic fatigue and disability for years...One in three patients who recover from coronavirus could be harmed for life, with long-term damage to their lungs, as well as chronic fatigue and psychological disturbances, research suggests" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... long-term/.

[UnderSeige]

CNN 3 Lessons From the Spanish Flue
These were mistakes that were made in the last major Pandemic to sweep across the UK and US.

• Lesson #1: Don't let up on social distancing too soon. During the Spanish flu pandemic, people stopped distancing too early, leading to a second wave of infections that was deadlier than the first, epidemiologists say.... In San Francisco, when the number of Spanish flu cases was almost down to zero, "the city fathers said, 'Let's open up the city. Let's have a great big parade downtown. We'll all take off our masks together,'" epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant said.
  "Two months later, because of that event, the great influenza came back again roaring."

• Lesson #2: Young, healthy adults can be victims of their strong immune systems
  The 1918 pandemic killed many young adults who were otherwise healthy, said John M. Barry, professor at the Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine.
  About two-thirds of the deaths then were among people ages 18 to 50, "and the peak age for death was 28," said Barry, author of "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History."

• Lesson #3: Don't throw unproven drugs at the virus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/heal ... index.html

[tiger76]

Coronavirus: Majority testing positive have no symptomshttps://www.bbc.com/news/health-53320155

This just highlights the problems in "asymptomatic transmission" by people who may not even be aware they're infectious.

[Billy Balfour]

Are we really a nation of numpties?

Downing Street will launch an information campaign to tell the public in England that face coverings should cover both the nose and the mouth if they are to help prevent the spread of Covid-19.

https://bit.ly/2ZNTbX4

[tiger76]

Are we really a nation of numpties?

Downing Street will launch an information campaign to tell the public in England that face coverings should cover both the nose and the mouth if they are to help prevent the spread of Covid-19.

https://bit.ly/2ZNTbX4

Well! TBF people have said they want clear advice, so what do you expect the government to do, they've tried to appeal to the common sense of the public, and that's clearly failed, so they'll obviously have to spell it out for the numpties, as you label them.

[Grumps]

Are we really a nation of numpties?

Downing Street will launch an information campaign to tell the public in England that face coverings should cover both the nose and the mouth if they are to help prevent the spread of Covid-19.

https://bit.ly/2ZNTbX4

According to many, people will only do things if the government tell them, what, when and how to do things, if they don't, and leave it to common sense, it's poor leadership

[UnderSeige]

Well! TBF people have said they want clear advice, so what do you expect the government to do, they've tried to appeal to the common sense of the public, and that's clearly failed, so they'll obviously have to spell it out for the numpties, as you label them.

I have seen people wearing them with just the mouth covered. I have even seen one or two wearing them on the chin with both nose and mouth uncovered (I hope this was temporary for some reason).

Some people also wear them in places where they don't need to be worn. Walking down a main road with no one else around. I've even seen one person wearing one whilst driving.

[Billy Balfour]

so they'll obviously have to spell it out for the numpties, as you label them.

Well in my book, someone is indeed a numpty if they think that wearing a mask, while not covering either their nose or mouth, is an appropriate use of a mask. I'd go even further and call them thick as ****.

[tiger76]

According to many, people will only do things if the government tell them, what, when and how to do things, if they don't, and leave it to common sense, it's poor leadership

There's plenty of things you can blame the government for in this crisis, but have people lost he ability to think for themselves, i was social distancing a couple of weeks before the official advice was published, and my workplace had also instigated a home working regime where possible, do people need to be spoon fed every piece of information before they'll act?

[UnderSeige]

Donald Trump has come round to the idea of wearing a mask. He said it makes him look like the Lone Ranger. I think someone needs to have a quiet word with him.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Daily Telegraph reporting: "Healthy people, who were in their 40s and 50s when the virus struck, are now facing anxiety for years...One in three patients who recover from coronavirus could be harmed for life, with long-termpsychological disturbances, research suggests" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... long-term/.

I would suggest that most people will suffer a lot of the above as a result of lockdown!

[tim_noone]

Donald Trump has come round to the idea of wearing a mask. He said it makes him look like the Lone Ranger. I think someone needs to have a quiet word with him.

Is that Donald Trump? A good Likeness indeed.

[bfcjg]

I'd take the vaccine, the flu vaccine is remodeled every year and if Covid's vaccine is like that until a lifelong one comes out so be it.
Researchrrs are saying though its your t cells after antibodies have gone that sort out the virus, the vaccine should train these.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Bolsonaro has tested positive (Brazillian president).

[cricketfieldclarets]

I'd take the vaccine, the flu vaccine is remodeled every year and if Covid's vaccine is like that until a lifelong one comes out so be it.
Researchrrs are saying though its your t cells after antibodies have gone that sort out the virus, the vaccine should train these.

Yes agree .

[NottsClaret]

2nd week in a row that overall deaths in the UK are actually down on the same week last year.

[cricketfieldclarets]

2nd week in a row that overall deaths in the UK are actually down on the same week last year.

Great news

[cricketfieldclarets]

Love this guys updates. He had a lot of flack but his realism and positivity has been great.

[Caballo]

2nd week in a row that overall deaths in the UK are actually down on the same week last year.

Not a great surprise though is it, stands to reason lots of the people who would have died from 'natural' causes in the last 2 weeks already went via covid assistance in March/April/May.

[tybfc]

2nd week in a row that overall deaths in the UK are actually down on the same week last year.

It's only Tuesday and 155 died of covid yesterday

[cricketfieldclarets]

Not a great surprise though is it, stands to reason lots of the people who would have died from 'natural' causes in the last 2 weeks already went via covid assistance in March/April/May.

But it’s still a positive.

[UnderSeige]

Is that Donald Trump? A good Likeness indeed.

No it's the Lone Ranger. Donald Trump said that when he wears his mask he looks like the Lone Ranger.

[Grumps]

It's only Tuesday and 155 died of covid yesterday

With Covid.. Not of Covid.
The same number as last Tuesday.

[timshorts]

No it's the Lone Ranger. Donald Trump said that when he wears his mask he looks like the Lone Ranger.

I thought it was a white horse, but then I'm not a rovers fan and don't claim any specialist expertise.

[NottsClaret]

It's only Tuesday and 155 died of covid yesterday

That’s not true. 155 deaths were reported today, some will date back weeks.

But the point was, less people are dying now than this time last year. Makes sense to be sensible and cautious, but not terrified.

[tim_noone]

No it's the Lone Ranger. Donald Trump said that when he wears his mask he looks like the Lone Ranger.

Yes he does indeed...

[cricketfieldclarets]

That’s not true. 155 deaths were reported today, some will date back weeks.

But the point was, less people are dying now than this time last year. Makes sense to be sensible and cautious, but not terrified.

This quick ted talk is quite relevant.

https://youtu.be/p7EsMIxcN5s

I love TED-Ed: Lessons Worth Sharing | Why do people fear the wrong things? | Gerd Gigerenzer, let's play it!