Covid-19

[UnderSeige]

might have been discussed on here, but why are we being asked to wear masks now, but pub goers do not have to.
in essence, they can occupy a bar, then leave and go to tesco where they are obliged to don a facemask.

I can't really see how you can wear a face mask whilst eating and drinking. Perhaps where possible pubs should only be serving outside during the summer. I think that social distancing and face mask wearing is difficult in a pub environment.

[evensteadiereddie]

It shouldn't have been too difficult to look at how the other 120 odd countries have implemented this and then followed the best practice.
Instead, we have the usual Gove - Hancock fuckupfest.

[UnderSeige]

The problem is that if they are enforcing it now for coronavirus when it is a tiny risk, will they ever rescind the order? As we know, winter deaths are significantly higher because of flu and pneumonia. Will they tell us all winter long that we must wear these masks to stop the spread of flu?

They will rescind the order. There is a vaccine for the flu. There will also be a vaccine for COVID-19.

Possibly, some people will want to continue wearing masks after the pandemic having got into the habit. In cities and such where there is heavy traffic pollution masks can also help. People with hay fever might want to wear them when the pollen count is high. Once it doesn't seem strange that people are walking about in masks, it just might continue for some.

I very much doubt that this government would introduce compulsory mask wearing though. It's a matter of choice.

[UnderSeige]

Wearing a mask for my own and others' safety is ridiculous. In protest, tonight I will be driving up and down the M1 without a seatbelt or headlights on.

Be sure that you don't bump into me. I will not be wearing my crash helmet as I speed down the motorway at 140 mph with fag in one hand and bottle of scotch in the other.

[NottsClaret]

might have been discussed on here, but why are we being asked to wear masks now, but pub goers do not have to.
in essence, they can occupy a bar, then leave and go to tesco where they are obliged to don a facemask.

Reopening pubs will surely be seen as a mistake. I appreciate the revenues from tax must be huge and that has to be considered, we can't print money forever. But it's inevitably going to increase the infection rate, more than any of the outdoor activities which are bizarrely still banned or frowned upon.

Hopefully we get away with it for long enough in summer / early autumn and that Oxford vaccine really does materialise in October. Otherwise I'm going to be pretty annoyed if we end up losing sport and seeing friends because we went back to sitting inside pubs too soon.

[claret2018]

Has there been much appetite for returning to the pubs? I don’t know anyone who has been since they reopened, and my group usually go quite a bit.

[Mala591]

Put mask on
Catch bus/train to pub
Take mask off
Enter 'moderately busy' pub surrounded by total strangers

I must admit that I'm (occasionally) doing it but it doesn't make much rational sense does it?

[cricketfieldclarets]

Reopening pubs will surely be seen as a mistake. I appreciate the revenues from tax must be huge and that has to be considered, we can't print money forever. But it's inevitably going to increase the infection rate, more than any of the outdoor activities which are bizarrely still banned or frowned upon.

Hopefully we get away with it for long enough in summer / early autumn and that Oxford vaccine really does materialise in October. Otherwise I'm going to be pretty annoyed if we end up losing sport and seeing friends because we went back to sitting inside pubs too soon.

111 and 999 call data from 18 - 69 year olds. Presumably most of the pub goers!

[Blackrod]

How do you eat or drink in a confined space such as a plane without taking your mask off ? It doesn’t really make sense. There is a lot of conflicting advice now the rules have been relaxed.

[Long Time Lurker]

I always get worried when people mention 'game-changer'

I always get worried when Sikora opens his mouth. If it was up to him we would have no NHS and trained sniffer dogs doing diagnostics in general practice.

I'm also worried that we turned down the invitation to be part of the EU vaccine scheme, deciding to go all in on the Oxford vaccine. The Oxford Vaccine that is currently being developed by the Jenner Insititure, under the umbrela of their spin off company Vaccitec and AstraZeneca, has far to many somke and mirrors elements for my liking.

Vaccitec was on its arse before the outbreak of Corona. They lost out on a lucrative opportunity to supply a vaccine for Ebola, because they were tardy in making it through their clinical trials. Their vaccine for MERS only demonstrated the stimulation of antibodies in 44% of their sample. That required them to do the funding rounds to keep afloat with little success, until Corona appeared on the scene. They immediately got 2.3m from our government, followed by another 60m and a lucrative " contract to deliver " from us, followed by a prospective 1.2bn order from the US.

In the first test of their Corona Vaccine it failed to register any difference between the monkeys given it and the control group. Normally that would have marked the end of it. However, they highlighted that it was only submitted to that test to determine its safety and their results suggested that it could alleviate some of the symptoms. In response to that they moved to the next round of testing and are now in the third round.

When it is stated that the Oxford Vaccine is leading the race, they are actually talking about it being further along the clinical trial process, not that it is the most effective ( or indeed effective at all ). They obviously learned their lesson from their Ebola delays.

Exposing somebody to Corona will trigger the development of antibodies and T-cells in a person that contracts it. That is the normal reponse of the immune system. Naturally, a drug that mymics that will have a similar response. However, it doesn't mean it will generate enough antibodies or T-cells ( if they work to grant lasting immunity ) to be effective. The important element of a vaccine is whether it will confer lasting immunity, not what it produces per se.

The people behind the Oxford Vaccine stand to make millions ( possibly billions ) from it. If it works, great, they deserve the money and our gracious thanks. However, their track record isn't great and with the prospect of so much money on the line things can become muddled, especially when it comes to ethics, semantics or the accurate description of a products worth.

Given the worldwide effort to produce a viable vaccine, and the large number of competing products, putting all of our eggs in an Oxford shaped basket strikes me as being very nieve. We could easily find ourselves spending a huge amount of money on a first to market vaccine that isn't an optimum / effective solution.

Failing that we might find ourselves last in line for a working vaccine, like we did with our PPE orders. Ignoring the open invitation to enter into the EU consortium for purchasing PPE ( pesky emails ) and refusing to participate within the EU vaccine scheme run along parallel paths.

It is only now coming to light that a lot of our PPE supply contracts were awarded to companies that had nothing to do with PPE equipment prior to the outbreak. Like the 250m we gave to the investment firm Ayanda Capital Limited, who might have simply acted as the large scale equivalent of an Alibaba drop shipper.

https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/n ... t/a1376702

When it comes to supply contracts, and investment opportunities, our government does have a dispicable history of shuffling public funds into the grasping hands of their " preffered bidders " instead of the most deserving or effective applicants.

[FactualFrank]

Digestive system outcome has been a little bit in the woods, admits bear.

inde.png (240.2 KiB) Viewed 3022 times

Feck me.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Put mask on
Catch bus/train to pub
Take mask off
Enter 'moderately busy' pub surrounded by total strangers

I must admit that I'm (occasionally) doing it but it doesn't make much rational sense does it?

Sat outside at the local cricket club last weekend and had a few pints yet to go to the local pub.

[UnderSeige]

How do you eat or drink in a confined space such as a plane without taking your mask off ? It doesn’t really make sense. There is a lot of conflicting advice now the rules have been relaxed.

I don't see why you need to eat and drink on a plane unless it's a long journey. If you do you will have to remove the mask for the duration of the meal otherwise you will end up eating the mask.

[UnderSeige]

I'm also worried that we turned down the invitation to be part of the EU vaccine scheme, deciding to go all in on the Oxford vaccine. The Oxford Vaccine that is currently being developed by the Jenner Insititure, under the umbrela of their spin off company Vaccitec and AstraZeneca, has far to many somke and mirrors elements for my liking.


In the first test of their Corona Vaccine it failed to register any difference between the monkeys given it and the control group. Normally that would have marked the end of it. However, they highlighted that it was only submitted to that test to determine its safety and their results suggested that it could alleviate some of the symptoms. In response to that they moved to the next round of testing and are now in the third round.

I thought that the vaccinated monkeys got less sick than the other ones in the control group. This then lead to the conclusion that the vaccine would not stop you from contracting the virus but would reduce the symptoms so that the disease did not become critical. The unknown bit was whether or not you could spread the virus after being vaccinated.

The monkeys were also given a stiff dose of the virus up their noses. Probably worst than most people will get.

We also have the Imperial College London vaccine due next year. In addition there is GSK vaccine that should be a more traditional stronger longer lasting vaccine due later next year. Like you say though, we should have stuck with the European vaccine also unless there is a very good reason not to.

[cricketfieldclarets]

.

[AndrewJB]

Hancock claiming lockdown happened a week earlier than it did:

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ma ... GtHwJOCzzk

The shamelessness of it. Once again a government more interested in public image than dealing with a pandemic.

[NottsClaret]

This is interesting, unsure as to how accurate it is but seems plausible. Explaining how nobody in England - statistically - can ever recover from COVID-19.

It would partly explain the very small NHS figure for daily deaths in hospitals.. then a 3 figure number later from PHE.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-on ... l-anomaly/

[Quickenthetempo]

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/sta ... 13440?s=19

I've been saying this for months.

Florida labs have been caught lying about positive tests in their thousands.

Stop giving more funding to hospitals etc for Covid cases/deaths and numbers will fall dramatically.

[Grumps]

This is interesting, unsure as to how accurate it is but seems plausible. Explaining how nobody in England - statistically - can ever recover from COVID-19.

It would partly explain the very small NHS figure for daily deaths in hospitals.. then a 3 figure number later from PHE.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-on ... l-anomaly/

Been discussed before, people dying of natural causes but being blamed on covid
Death figs will be coming down.....

[taio]

Only in the UK would the mortality figures be manipulated upwards. It's clear that loads of Covid deaths have been counted inappropriately, whereas in some other countries the opposite is true.

[Grumps]

Only in the UK would the mortality figures be manipulated upwards. It's clear that loads of Covid deaths have been counted inappropriately, whereas in some other countries the opposite is true.

Not perhaps manipulated as such, just it was easy to put Covid on death cert, them pm was not required.

[mdd2]

That may be relevant as if anyone is admitted to ICU for sepsis and survives their risk of later death is much higher as a result of being in ICU so there may be some relevance in those stats. However it sounds as if the guy knocked down and killed by a bus on his way to work one month after coming out of quarantine because he had a positive Covid test but was never ill would also be included as a Covid death. Crazy Mr Fawlty, crazy, to quote the gut from Barcelona

[UnderSeige]

Spain's seven day average for 'daily case rates' is getting a bit high.
18/06/20 - 366
25/06/20 - 317
02/07/20 - 444
09/07/20 - 450
16/07/20 - 828
Two regions went into strict lockdown at the end of last week. Cases still rising. Hopefully, the lockdowns will squash it.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02311.html

Luxembourg 'daily case rates show a clearly defined second spike.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uxembourg/

Czechia is showing a second spike but these are low numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -republic/

Ireland have all but eliminated the virus. New Cases below 20 per day since the middle of June. What are they doing differently than us or is it an easier population to manage?

There is no sign of a second spike in the rest of Europe or the UK yet. France's 'daily case rates' are slightly higher than last month but it doesn't really amount to much.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Isn't Ireland's population about the same as New Zealand with a similar density?

[CombatClaret]

Nothing to see here. Just the complete failure of a £133m contract which was handed to a Tory Party donor without any competitive tender.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... y-22368475

[taio]

Nothing to see here. Just the complete failure of a £133m contract which was handed to a Tory Party donor without any competitive tender.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... y-22368475

Some people wanting to highlight lack of tendering but the waiving of procurement rules is widespread for obvious reasons.

[UnderSeige]

The UK government looks to be doing OK at the moment. There is no sign of a second spike yet - even after all the mass gatherings over the past few weeks.

There looks to be an emerging 'containment policy'. The 'track and trace system' is quelling over a hundred small outbrakes per week. This is where the virus starts to spread in a company or other organisation. If this wasn't occurring we would now be having many 'Leicester type' lockdowns or perhaps even another national lockdown.

The health secretary said "Where we find a cluster or outbreak, we send in extra testing, including mobile testing units that can be deployed anywhere in the country," he added. Clusters of cases in places such as hospitals, factories or schools can also be dealt with by closing the premises.

This has already happened in several parts of the UK, including a hospital in Weston-super-Mare, North Somerset and meat factories in Cleckheaton, West Yorkshire, and Wrexham and Anglesey. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53386205

Mask wearing in shops is going to be compulsory soon. I think, looking at the successful Far Eastern countries, this is an essential part of a 'containment plan'. The mobile app would be a great enhancement to this.

Reducing the 'social distancing' to 2m has not yet been carried out. Another good part of a containment plan despite protests form the right (but wrong) wing.

I just hope that the 'How can we fe*k it up committee' haven't come back from holiday yet.

[cricketfieldclarets]

To think some had the audacity to cry foul play at Chinese, Iranian and Russian figures...

Also still seems increasingly possible that there is more natural immunity than first thought. Which several people have been saying from the outset.

[Grumps]

Spain's seven day average for 'daily case rates' is getting a bit high.
18/06/20 - 366
25/06/20 - 317
02/07/20 - 444
09/07/20 - 450
16/07/20 - 828
Two regions went into strict lockdown at the end of last week. Cases still rising. Hopefully, the lockdowns will squash it.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 02311.html

Luxembourg 'daily case rates show a clearly defined second spike.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uxembourg/

Czechia is showing a second spike but these are low numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -republic/

Ireland have all but eliminated the virus. New Cases below 20 per day since the middle of June. What are they doing differently than us or is it an easier population to manage?

There is no sign of a second spike in the rest of Europe or the UK yet. France's 'daily case rates' are slightly higher than last month but it doesn't really amount to much.

I don't think it was a secret that infection would rise when restrictions were lifted, its all about keeping them at a reasonable level. Looks like we could be back on the Turf by October, if things keep going as they are

[Quickenthetempo]

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/sta ... 80256?s=19
Let that sink in.

Public health England haven't reported a single person recovering.

[cricketfieldclarets]

[cricketfieldclarets]

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/sta ... 80256?s=19
Let that sink in.

Public health England haven't reported a single person recovering.

One of the only countries who never did from day one. Crazy. I was saying right at the start of this thread back in March - if we know who’s had it. Who’s recovered. Then we know where we stand.

[taio]

To think some had the audacity to cry foul play at Chinese, Iranian and Russian figures...

Also still seems increasingly possible that there is more natural immunity than first thought. Which several people have been saying from the outset.

I've appreciated you posting screenshots of what this chap is saying. He seems to have called a lot right despite people getting annoyed at him being positive.

[claretonthecoast1882]

This would mean though our virus experts on here were wrong, who'd have thought it

[dsr]

Nothing to see here. Just the complete failure of a £133m contract which was handed to a Tory Party donor without any competitive tender.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... y-22368475

I'm not sure if the Mirror's argument is that we would be better off not having equipment at all than using a Tory donor's company, or if it's that we shouldn't have rushed to get PPE and should have made sure every order went through the normal testing and tender channels. Either way, they're a bit slow with the news - where were they in May with their banner headlines about the government moving too fast and how the testing process should be delayed?

[ksrclaret]

Absolutely brilliant news about sports stadiums. That has made my day.

Also, good news about the reporting figures too. Not in the sense that PHE have cocked it up, but in the sense that it means far fewer people are dying than we thought. Often the PHE data doubles or even trebles the death data on any given day.

Professor Karol Sikora remains the person to look out for if you want clear, consistent information without any of the horrendous doom and gloom.

[mdd2]

Absolutely brilliant news about sports stadiums. That has made my day.

Also, good news about the reporting figures too. Not in the sense that PHE have cocked it up, but in the sense that it means far fewer people are dying than we thought. Often the PHE data doubles or even trebles the death data on any given day.

Karol Sikora remains the person to look out for if you want clear, consistent information without any of the horrendous doom and gloom.

I think Boris has had a lot of unfair criticism but I think if you want a second wave then please open up for mass gatherings.
At a period when the virus is more likely to kick off, as we have been advised, (in winter with more people being in doors) we open up stadia to live events. Even if only half the Turf is open to spectators that is 10,000 track and trace from one event scattered far and wide if we have folk in the crowd carrying Covid.

[ksrclaret]

I think Boris has had a lot of unfair criticism but I think if you want a second wave then please open up for mass gatherings.
At a period when the virus is more likely to kick off, as we have been advised, (in winter with more people being in doors) we open up stadia to live events. Even if only half the Turf is open to spectators that is 10,000 track and trace from one event scattered far and wide if we have folk in the crowd carrying Covid.

We've had plenty of mass gatherings so far. Everyone petrified that a second spike would emerge but absolutely nothing. In fact, death figures have now been shown to be even lower than what we've all thought they were.

I think outdoor mass gatherings pose far, far less of a risk than indoor mass gatherings. But they only way we'll know for sure is to try it. We can continue to all live in fear, or we can try and make some inroads and see where we're at after doing so. If we see a significant upsurge I'm sure they'll be prohibited again. And in the mean time, if some people don't feel comfortable attending these events yet, fair play to them and they'll have the option not to.

[taio]

I think Boris has had a lot of unfair criticism but I think if you want a second wave then please open up for mass gatherings.
At a period when the virus is more likely to kick off, as we have been advised, (in winter with more people being in doors) we open up stadia to live events. Even if only half the Turf is open to spectators that is 10,000 track and trace from one event scattered far and wide if we have folk in the crowd carrying Covid.

It seems we may be getting close to herd immunity.

Something has clearly happened that's had such a dramatic affect on the number of deaths and transmissions. I find it hard to believe it's all down to lockdown and social distancing measures. That in my mind leaves three other explanations: the number of people who have had the virus is vastly greater than predicted; the virus is losing its effectiveness and potency; and/or herd immunity is starting to take effect.

In any case the government has a difficult balancing act and individuals themselves will need to make their own choices according to their own circumstances and risk appetite. Personally I'm in favour of accelerating measures that will reopen the economy and society. I can understand why people might disagree and so they should continue to socially distance until a vaccination is available.

[Spijed]

It seems we may be getting close to herd immunity.

Something has clearly happened that's had such a dramatic affect on the number of deaths and transmissions. I find it hard to believe it's all down to lockdown and social distancing measures. That in my mind leaves three other explanations: the number of people who have had the virus is vastly greater than predicted; the virus is losing its effectiveness and potency; and/or herd immunity is starting to take effect.

In any case the government has a difficult balancing act and individuals themselves will need to make their own choices according to their own circumstances and risk appetite. Personally I'm in favour of accelerating measures that will reopen the economy and society. I can understand why people might disagree and so they should continue to socially distance until a vaccination is available.

Makes you wonder why there seems to be big spikes in America, especially after certain events where there have been a lot of people.

[taio]

Makes you wonder why there seems to be big spikes in America, especially after certain events where there have been a lot of people.

I was specifically referring to the mortality and transmission trends in the UK and what may have impacted on those trajectories.

[UnderSeige]

It seems we may be getting close to herd immunity.

Something has clearly happened that's had such a dramatic affect on the number of deaths and transmissions. I find it hard to believe it's all down to lockdown and social distancing measures. That in my mind leaves three other explanations: the number of people who have had the virus is vastly greater than predicted; the virus is losing its effectiveness and potency; and/or herd immunity is starting to take effect.

In any case the government has a difficult balancing act and individuals themselves will need to make their own choices according to their own circumstances and risk appetite. Personally I'm in favour of accelerating measures that will reopen the economy and society. I can understand why people might disagree and so they should continue to socially distance until a vaccination is available.

USA, Brazil.

[taio]

USA, Brazil.

As stated above I was referring to the UK.

[UnderSeige]

As stated above I was referring to the UK.

The USA and Brazil have tended to have short lived and limited lockdown. They are now experiencing high case rates. This would have been the same for the UK.

The UK are now squashing clusters through 'track and trace'. For example, if an outbreak occurs in a food processing plant, the plant will be closed and the workers made to self isolate for a time. If this was not occurring the clusters would expand into the communities (e.g. Leicester) causing the virus to take off in those areas. Matt Handcock has said that over 100 of these small lockdowns takes place every week.

It could be argued that 'track and trace' along with 'mask wearing', hygiene and 'social distancing' would have been enough to control the virus without having to go into lockdown.

[taio]

The USA and Brazil have tended to have short lived and limited lockdown. They are now experiencing high case rates. This would have been the same for the UK.

The UK are now squashing clusters through 'track and trace'. For example, if an outbreak occurs in a food processing plant, the plant will be closed and the workers made to self isolate for a time. If this was not occurring the clusters would expand into the communities (e.g. Leicester) causing the virus to take off in those areas. Matt Handcock has said that over 100 of these small lockdowns takes place every week.

It could be argued that 'track and trace' along with 'mask wearing', hygiene and 'social distancing' would have been enough to control the virus without having to go into lockdown.

My hypothesis is there are other reasons beyond what you state here. As a minimum I'm convinced many more people have already had the virus than what has been projected. Time will tell if I'm wrong and it's all down to track and trace, mask wearing (vast majority haven't been wearing them), hygiene and social distancing. I think it will prove to be much more complex and nuanced than that.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-l ... 28250.html

[No Ney Never]

How will social distancing work in football stadia?
Will it be every other seat, or maybe a 2 seat gap between fans?
How will this affect season ticket holders with allocated seats?
Is there enough seating to accommodate all season ticket holders at a social distance?
What happens where the person allocated to the middle of the row wants to get to their seat, or leave their seat to go to the toilet or for refreshments?

It seems to me that it's either back to how it used to be, or there's some head banging thinking going to be required for this to work.

[cricketfieldclarets]

It seems we may be getting close to herd immunity.

Something has clearly happened that's had such a dramatic affect on the number of deaths and transmissions. I find it hard to believe it's all down to lockdown and social distancing measures. That in my mind leaves three other explanations: the number of people who have had the virus is vastly greater than predicted; the virus is losing its effectiveness and potency; and/or herd immunity is starting to take effect.

In any case the government has a difficult balancing act and individuals themselves will need to make their own choices according to their own circumstances and risk appetite. Personally I'm in favour of accelerating measures that will reopen the economy and society. I can understand why people might disagree and so they should continue to socially distance until a vaccination is available.

Throughout this whole lockdown people have overlooked that kids have still been mixing quite a lot. That would likely spread it. I think there is more immunity and or it’s less potent.

Still need to be cautious. But things are looking much better.

[cricketfieldclarets]

I've appreciated you posting screenshots of what this chap is saying. He seems to have called a lot right despite people getting annoyed at him being positive.

Same. He’s done wonders for me. I’ve always been optimistic and positive. But this guy has helped so many people with anxiety.

He’s been realistic and honest. And never professed to be an expert at everything.

[cricketfieldclarets]

USA, Brazil.

Sweden. Pretty much zero lockdown. Also see South Korea.

It’s impossible to compare every country as so much different stuff at play.