Covid-19

[FactualFrank]

300 people in London today protesting against the lockdown because it infringes their right to freedom or some such claptrap.Are these people wired up right?

They aren't plumb.

[tiger76]

They aren't plumb.

A trifle embarrassing for Jeremy https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-526933 ... in-london

Forgive me i'm the lockdown's being lifted so what precisely are these people protesting against.

[tiger76]

Coronavirus test results waits 'undermining confidence'

The government needs to make sure its coronavirus testing strategy is fit for purpose instead of focusing on hitting targets, says the Royal College of GPs.

In a letter to Health Secretary Matt Hancock, chairman Prof Martin Marshall said long wait times were "undermining confidence" in the results.

Health professionals were also concerned about the accuracy of some test results, he said.

The government said "95% of tests" were processed "in less than 48 hours".

Ensuring there are enough tests to meet demand is part of the government's five tests it says must be met before easing lockdown restrictions.

However, the absence of a clear strategy had left patients vulnerable, according to Prof Marshall.

He said the RCGP did not currently believe the testing strategy was capable of working to prevent a second wave of infections and "secure the overall health of the population".

However, he did commend the "clear strides to improve testing capacity" in recent weeks.

The RCGP said it wants the testing strategy to:

Continue to ensure the right people are tested at the right time to protect key workers and vulnerable patients
Help us understand the virus and its spread better through test, track and trace
Deliver timely results that patients and healthcare professionals can have confidence in
Include a commitment to improve the accuracy of the tests
Make sure GPs and care homes have access to tests
There was a major effort to increase the number of daily tests provided, with a target set of hitting 100,000 tests a day by the end of April.

The government said it had reached that goal, providing 122,347 tests on 30 April - although it has struggled to maintain testing numbers at that level over the past fortnight.

The number also included home testing kits which had been sent out but may not end up being returned.

Target a 'distraction'
Concerns have been raised that the focus on hitting the target had distracted from the actual purpose of testing.

At the end of April, NHS Providers deputy chief executive Saffron Cordery told the BBC there were questions to be asked about whether the "maximum benefit" had been gained from efforts to meet the 100,000 target, when a plan to test frontline staff regularly "hadn't been thought through".

Testing key workers is meant to help those who can get back to work faster.

But some health professionals have reported waiting more than a week for results. Dr Lucy-Jane Davis, chair of the British Medical Association (BMA) in south-west England, said some people had waited more than 10 days.

A test to see if someone has the virus is only a snapshot in time - it indicates whether the person has enough of the virus in their nose or throat to be detected at that moment.

If they are re-tested a few days later, it may have cleared up, multiplied enough to become detectable, or show whether they have newly contracted the virus.

So people receiving their results several days after being tested may find that information is no longer useful or accurate.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) says 95% of tests across all settings are received back within 48 hours - but that still gives a figure of potentially 5,000 people a day waiting longer than that.

On top of this there is also a "void rate" of just over 5% - where the samples are not viable and so the swabs cannot produce a result.

Staff on the frontline in hospitals and care homes may need to be tested once or even twice weekly, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not, according to Rupert Beale who is leading the Crick Institute's efforts to test NHS staff.

The DHSC says the key window for testing is the first three days after developing symptoms.

The ability to have rapid results will also play a key role in the government's "track, trace, test" efforts, according to Prof James Naismith at the University of Oxford.

Faster turnaround is needed if testing is to be used to help control the spread of infection, he said.

[martin_p]

The public are fast losing confidence in the government’s handing of the crisis.

C19ABF0F-FB54-4740-808A-15A9CF56FBDC.jpeg (165.17 KiB) Viewed 2804 times

[Blackrod]

Corbyn s brother can’t agree with his Communist views. He’s upset on the infringement of his rights and the lockdown regulations. Under Communist rule he would do what he was told or may never be seen again. An embarrassment.

[Blackrod]

I wonder what the real case numbers are ? The death toll is certainly shocking. Would any other government have done better ? We’ll never know. It’s looking like we should have done better earlier on. The porous borders, airport controls and lack of PPE are my biggest gripes. The handling since the lockdown on the whole has been ok though.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

She promised a review in front of the cameras. The Home Office says no review took place.

Have you a link to that, I've genuinely missed that announcement from the home office.

I'd also like to point out that recently a senior civil servant had to make a retraction about something after they were shown up at one of the daily briefings, so I'd take somethings with a pinch of salt tbh.

[chadders]

Aye, we had warning. This shouldn't have been a shock. Obama talked of a threat such as this in 2014/15. Scientists were raising the alarms early. We were just slow, other countries were caught on the hop, whereas others went in hard and fast. We failed care homes early sadly. We need to go carefully now, slowly slowly and adapt if necessary. Test, trace isolate until we have a vaccine as nothing has really changed. Folk around here are out and about as though nothing happened. That fills me with dread.

The good news from our family is after 9 weeks in two hospitals our daughter's boyfriend is coming home on Monday. Quite a story to tell. But still a journey yet he is still very very poorly. It's really important to take on board that this is nothing like the flu, and flu can be bad. He has been knocking at deaths door for a number of weeks. His consultant in London was quite emotional at his progress. Huge credit to the amazing staff at RD&E and The Royal Brompton in London.

So important to keep safe P&L. Take care

[AndrewJB]

I wonder what the real case numbers are ? The death toll is certainly shocking. Would any other government have done better ? We’ll never know. It’s looking like we should have done better earlier on. The porous borders, airport controls and lack of PPE are my biggest gripes. The handling since the lockdown on the whole has been ok though.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/17/the- ... -lockdown/

His full speech is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baWbWpOtJnc&app=desktop

If you're wondering what we were doing earlier on, then read the article (or watch Johnson's speech). The shocking death toll we have is down to Johnson's government wanting us to "take it on the chin" and allow lots of people to die so the economy could keep moving. Look at the rush they're in to catch up with countries that have contained the virus better than us. State schools are being pushed to open in two weeks. Private schools are remaining closed until September.

Johnson's father broke the lockdown. Is that an embarrassment?

[Taffy on the wing]

I wonder what the real case numbers are ? The death toll is certainly shocking. Would any other government have done better ? We’ll never know. It’s looking like we should have done better earlier on. The porous borders, airport controls and lack of PPE are my biggest gripes. The handling since the lockdown on the whole has been ok though.

The real question is....could they have done any worse?.....

[MalaysiaMo]

"Would any other government have done better ? "

Jeez. Just about every government around the world has done better! What planet are you on?

[jackmiggins]

Something of a relief that Boris seems to be applying the brakes to lockdown release. Still so many unknown aspects and also issues to be properly addressed. Just as an example, I have two family members (health professionals) who haven’t received their test results back yet - currently nine and seven days. That’s totally unacceptable and tends to make the tests pointless.

[jackmiggins]

Just as a slight aside - has anyone heard much from the WHO within the last fortnight?

[jackmiggins]

Children are excellent carriers of colds. Possibly less good at carrying flu because flu affects them worse than adults, as a rule, I believe.

As for coronavirus, the statisiticians have looked at NHS playgroups and pre-school groups and have found only 3 children with coronavirus, and no record of anyone - child or adult - catching coronavirus at a playgroup. If the NHS-specific playgroups aren't catching it or transmitting it, then the chances are that no very young children are.

I would refute your second paragraph and not sure which ‘statisticians’ you’re referring to?
I’d also question your logic re flu transmission - most carriers of flu pass on the virus at any time from their own infection up to symptomatic development. This is exactly the same with Measles.

[claretandy]

The public are fast losing confidence in the government’s handing of the crisis.

C19ABF0F-FB54-4740-808A-15A9CF56FBDC.jpeg

It's could be just as likely people who want the lockdown ended that are losing confidence.

[Swizzlestick]

Just as a slight aside - has anyone heard much from the WHO within the last fortnight?

They hold a conference every other day. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... -briefings

[jackmiggins]

Thanks - I’m aware of that, but haven’t found any relevant Covid info, other than some collaboration with Costa Rica?

[jackmiggins]

Watching Gove on Sky now.......lots and lots of holes for Marr to stick his fingers into later. This fellow is a complete idiot.

[martin_p]

It's could be just as likely people who want the lockdown ended that are losing confidence.

Sorry? Are those people not part of the public? Where did I ascribe a reason to the public losing confidence?

[martin_p]

Children are excellent carriers of colds. Possibly less good at carrying flu because flu affects them worse than adults, as a rule, I believe.

As for coronavirus, the statisiticians have looked at NHS playgroups and pre-school groups and have found only 3 children with coronavirus, and no record of anyone - child or adult - catching coronavirus at a playgroup. If the NHS-specific playgroups aren't catching it or transmitting it, then the chances are that no very young children are.

Yet the analysis on the BBC news last night showed that children are just as likely to catch the virus but don’t suffer with it as badly. The science on them transmitting the virus tended towards them not transmitting it as much but was inconclusive.

Looking at the children of nhs staff will probably be misleading anyway. If I worked in the nhs and had children at home I’d be taking every precaution necessary to make sure I didn’t take the virus home (and because of my job would know how to). I suspect those children are some of the best shielded in the country.

[jackmiggins]

Agreed - WHO lady on before Gove said there was no evidence of spread between children in Denmark etc (but they did lock borders early on). But, then again, children can be symptomatic and their back to school was last week. No mention of a two week incubation and any results in the wider community local to the schools.
This is all extremely amateurish and irresponsible!!

[tiger76]

Good news from Spain.

Spain's daily death toll drops below 100

Spain, one of the world's worst-hit countries by coronavirus, has released its latest figures which show its daily death toll dropped below 100 for the first time in two months.

It was 87 on Sunday, the health ministry said, bringing the total deaths from the virus to 27,650. The number of confirmed cases edged up to 231,350 from 230,698, the ministry said.

[keith1879]

Two points of good news from the UK are that the all-locations 7dma death figure has dropped to half of its peak and that the 7dma new cases figure is now falling steadily at roughly the same rate as the deaths figure. (The two figures have tended to follow similar paths in other countries with clear peaks in both whereas in the UK the new cases figure just plateaued for a long time). The big upsurge in testing seems to be paying off.

[jackmiggins]

Better figures Keith, but dubious and not sure the ‘big upsurge’ is anywhere near enough to give any reliable figures, especially as the tests are aimed at a specific demographic. Testing needs to be carried out on general population, until then, any figures are, at best, pretty inconclusive. Still a long way to go I’m afraid.

[android]

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/17/the- ... -lockdown/

His full speech is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baWbWpOtJnc&app=desktop

If you're wondering what we were doing earlier on, then read the article (or watch Johnson's speech). The shocking death toll we have is down to Johnson's government wanting us to "take it on the chin" and allow lots of people to die so the economy could keep moving. Look at the rush they're in to catch up with countries that have contained the virus better than us. State schools are being pushed to open in two weeks. Private schools are remaining closed until September.

Johnson's father broke the lockdown. Is that an embarrassment?

I thought you did not like lies? The Johnson "take it on the chin" quote is the very opposite of what he said. He said some people might say "take it on the chin" but we (Boris and the government) are NOT saying that and we need to tackle the virus. I'm sure it's just a mistake on your part rather than a lie. Would be good if you could acknowledge to avoid misleading people.

[jackmiggins]

This shouldn’t be a political argument. ‘We’ should mean us, not your own political persuasion!!!

[dsr]

I would refute your second paragraph and not sure which ‘statisticians’ you’re referring to?
I’d also question your logic re flu transmission - most carriers of flu pass on the virus at any time from their own infection up to symptomatic development. This is exactly the same with Measles.

That's why I said possibly - because I don't actually know about flu, except that when children get it, they tend to get it worse.

The statisticians referred to are the ones that counted the NHS nurseries and counted the cases of coronavirus as reported in yesterday's Daily Telegraph. I don't know their names or who they worked for. But all they were doing was adding up numbers, so they wouldn't need to be professors.

[jackmiggins]

Might be best not quote statistics if you don’t know how they’ve been compiled, or for who.

[keith1879]

I thought you did not like lies? The Johnson "take it on the chin" quote is the very opposite of what he said. He said some people might say "take it on the chin" but we (Boris and the government) are NOT saying that and we need to tackle the virus. I'm sure it's just a mistake on your part rather than a lie. Would be good if you could acknowledge to avoid misleading people.

Android is quite correct here. The point where it was publically admitted that the Government were pursuing a herd immunity policy was March12th (possibly 13th) when one of the advisers said as much in the Downing Street news conference.

[keith1879]

Better figures Keith, but dubious and not sure the ‘big upsurge’ is anywhere near enough to give any reliable figures, especially as the tests are aimed at a specific demographic. Testing needs to be carried out on general population, until then, any figures are, at best, pretty inconclusive. Still a long way to go I’m afraid.

Agreed....the ONS survey where they telephone random households should be giving a reasonable idea of number of cases currently out there. Don't know if they are updated regularly.

[jackmiggins]

Not as far as I’m aware KeithThe ONS figures are above Whitehall’s, no surprise. Been watching quite a lot of diverse tv over the past few weeks and quite unbelievable how the news from, say two weeks ago, is completely ‘U’ turned on channels. THEY really do think that we are all gumbos!

[dsr]

Might be best not quote statistics if you don’t know how they’ve been compiled, or for who.

Don't be silly. Do you know how the WHO global death stats are compiled? I don't. Doesn't mean they should be quoted.

[jackmiggins]

dsr - I give up........good luck to all - UTC x

[martin_p]

Some experts have worked out a fairer way of comparing death rates. It doesn’t make good reading for the U.K.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

[Spijed]

Some experts have worked out a fairer way of comparing death rates. It doesn’t make good reading for the U.K.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

One thing that does need to be looked at when making comparisons is whether the virus has actually killed someone .

For example, if someone has died in a car crash but is found to have the virus in their blood stream the UK records that as a death from Covid19 it seems.

How stupid is that?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Covid deaths are not recorded the same way across the world.

Apparently Belgium don't do a test but will allow it recorded as Covid jf a doctor suspects its present.

Germany only record it at a care home someone is tested for it.

Comparisons are difficult due to this.
Excess deaths can be used but unless everyone who's died is tested then an accurate number will never be given.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52311014

[CombatClaret]

One thing that does need to be looked at when making comparisons is whether the virus has actually killed someone .

For example, if someone has died in a car crash but is found to have the virus in their blood stream the UK records that as a death from Covid19 it seems.

How stupid is that?

Can you find any evidence of the event or similar event you have described happening?

[KateR]

shark attacks for example

[dsr]

Excess deaths are a sensible way of looking at who has suffered worse overall. Once you have that figure, of course, other factors come into place like whether Italy's figure is lower (if it does turn out lower) because the virus does not fare well in the warmer weather of the south; but that's a different, more complicated, issue. Start with excess deaths and work from there.

[RingoMcCartney]

Excess deaths are a sensible way of looking at who has suffered worse overall. Once you have that figure, of course, other factors come into place like whether Italy's figure is lower (if it does turn out lower) because the virus does not fare well in the warmer weather of the south; but that's a different, more complicated, issue. Start with excess deaths and work from there.

You're bob-on dsr.

Other factors will be

A consistent way that deaths are attributed to Covid 19 across different countries. Care home deaths are, aren't and sporadically included, depending on individual nations. Also, there are "OF COVID" deaths , and "WITH COVID" deaths.

Obesity.

Rates of diabetes.

Ethnic make up of population.

Age demographics.

Population densities.

Poverty.

Whether a country had already experienced similar epidemics like MERS or SARS and had infrastructure already in place which certain countries have.

Whether or not a colder/warmer climate helps or hinders the contagious nature of this new virus.

Whether having global international hub, (LONDON) through which 1000s of people from all over the world pass through on a daily basis, is a disadvantage.

Rates of single occupancy homes

Rates of multiple occupancy homes

Numbers of the population people in care homes.

The potential effect of ultra violet light on the virus in countries experiencing their summer. Influenza rates rise and fall with the changing seasons. Covid has been described as "influenza-like".

The effect of vitamin D deficiency in large swathes of the population at the end of a long grey winter , and its potential effect on helping patients fight the virus.

[dsr]

Exactly.

But when it comes down to it, the answer looks like it will be that we are among the countries with the most deaths, and the biggest factor IMO will be the decision to let patients into nursing homes and old folks' homes without testing them.

The problem with factoring in all the other variables is that when you reach the end, the solution is so complicated that no-one can understand it and people will believe what they want to believe.

[RingoMcCartney]

Exactly.

But when it comes down to it, the answer looks like it will be that we are among the countries with the most deaths, and the biggest factor IMO will be the decision to let patients into nursing homes and old folks' homes without testing them.

The problem with factoring in all the other variables is that when you reach the end, the solution is so complicated that no-one can understand it and people will believe what they want to believe.

I know its very early, but I'd like to nominate you for the UTC messageboard's combined "Calling a Spade a Spade", and "Cant Argue With That" post of the week award.

Good effort and fair play!

[martin_p]

You're bob-on dsr.

Other factors will be

A consistent way that deaths are attributed to Covid 19 across different countries. Care home deaths are, aren't and sporadically included, depending on individual nations. Also, there are "OF COVID" deaths , and "WITH COVID" deaths.

Obesity.

Rates of diabetes.

Ethnic make up of population.

Age demographics.

Population densities.

Poverty.

Whether a country had already experienced similar epidemics like MERS or SARS and had infrastructure already in place which certain countries have.

Whether or not a colder/warmer climate helps or hinders the contagious nature of this new virus.

Whether having global international hub, (LONDON) through which 1000s of people from all over the world pass through on a daily basis, is a disadvantage.

Rates of single occupancy homes

Rates of multiple occupancy homes

Numbers of the population people in care homes.

The potential effect of ultra violet light on the virus in countries experiencing their summer. Influenza rates rise and fall with the changing seasons. Covid has been described as "influenza-like".

The effect of vitamin D deficiency in large swathes of the population at the end of a long grey winter , and its potential effect on helping patients fight the virus.

You haven’t looked at the article. It takes most those things out of the equation by just looking at excess deaths, whether recorded as Covid or not, to judge how well a country is coping.

[aggi]

I'm a bit curious about the various news today re: the possible vaccine and the preparation to make 30m units of it or whatever. I hadn't really seen anything up until now that suggested this vaccine was anything other than one of a large number of trials.

Have I missed something and it's expected to work?

[KateR]

vaccine to the best of my knowledge is still a long way away but many places/countries in the race to produce the earliest one, but hopefully others will follow as being the first is not necessarily the best.

In regard to testing, tracing and contact investigation, whereby people will be advised/told to self isolate, what are the thoughts around this? Should people contacted be "forced" to self isolate or as I expect it will be just an advisory. Do you think those advised will isolate while numbers are dropping (assuming they are) and the lockdown is being eased, where restaurants/cafes etc. will be allowed to open and people going back to work.

I think airports/borders should be checked and I think isolation should be enforced if it is done in the near future, before we move to more easing but if not done soon enough it will be to late to enforce.

[claretandy]

Thread.

https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/ ... 5588812805

[MalaysiaMo]

I'm a bit curious about the various news today re: the possible vaccine and the preparation to make 30m units of it or whatever. I hadn't really seen anything up until now that suggested this vaccine was anything other than one of a large number of trials.

Have I missed something and it's expected to work?

Having an effective vaccine isn't just about having a vaccine that works in trials, it is also about being able to upscale from those trials to - in the case of COVID-19 - potentially millions of doses, and possibly having to repeat those doses on an annual or even a sub-annual scale, and to get those doses out to the people who need them. All that requires huge levels of resources. Not just the materials (solvents, salts etc) for the vaccine itself, but the glass vials that contain a vaccine dose, the syringes and needles and staff needed to administer them etc. Depending on the form of the vaccine, it might also have to be stored at low temperature, hence refrigeration is needed as well. And vaccines often have a very short shelf-life, so you can't really produce and stockpile them over a long period of time ..... And this is a virus - the virus could mutate more quickly than we can upscale vaccine production and delivery, rendering any vaccine ineffective when deployed, even though it worked in a lab trial ....

Don't be fooled by these stories of labs/companies being close to producing a vaccine that works. We've heard that for malaria, year after year, and nothing effective materialises. We need to remember that the companies working on vaccines etc are highly dependent on venture capital, and the best way to attract venture capital is to say that you're close to finding something that is going to sell big .....

I suspect the answer will not be in a vaccine, no matter how much we invest. There is no vaccine for many other virus-based diseases, including the common cold, dengue, HIV. And the latter are diseases that have been around for decades rather than months and attracted huge investments in the search for a vaccine. The answer will be in changes in our behaviour (particularly the most vulnerable) and in therapeutics - drugs, and likely combinations of drugs, that deal with the infection rather than the cause of the infection. This is how we have learnt to deal with many diseases that we have been unable to eradicate, with relatively few exceptions (smallpox, polio ...).

[TheFamilyCat]

I know its very early, but I'd like to nominate you for the UTC messageboard's combined "Calling a Spade a Spade", and "Cant Argue With That" post of the week award.

Good effort and fair play!

Aww Towy fweind.

[TheFamilyCat]

Exactly.

But when it comes down to it, the answer looks like it will be that we are among the countries with the most deaths, and the biggest factor IMO will be the decision to let patients into nursing homes and old folks' homes without testing them.

The problem with factoring in all the other variables is that when you reach the end, the solution is so complicated that no-one can understand it and people will believe what they want to believe.

No, there will be a full enquiry. Reasonable people will believe what that enquiry says but like you say, there are a few who will carry on believing what they want to believe.

[TVC15]

Aww Towy fweind.

Feels a bit like receiving the Fred West award for community spirit.
He must be so very proud.