Covid-19

[thatdberight]

True, it's a massive problem I just wish a few of you would recognise, you don't have to panic to be realistic.

I believe I am realistic. It's important to separate expectation from response.

[Jakubclaret]

Might be best to keep quiet then, not really doing anyone any favours with rumours, wrong towns etc.

Bit late in the day

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... rus-fears/

[Grumps]

[quote=Jakubclaret post_id=1217464 time=1582651591 user_id=2914]
Bit late in the day

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... rus-fears/
[/quote]

It wasn't on the website when I replied.

[thatdberight]

Bit late in the day

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... rus-fears/

Sounds like they're going well past the official advice.

[If it be your will]

I have avoided this thread so far because I had a good idea what to expect...and I was right. I have read some of page 1 and some of page 9 and left the rest alone.
Conclusion: never in the history of man has so much expert opinion been put forward by so many with no knowledge at all of what they are talking about.
Leave it to the real experts guys...you are only upsetting yourselves.
I'll just return to my ignorance and listen as and when the doctors tell us something REAL.

I consider this somewhat disrespectful. I imagine I could go on every single thread saying things like "Wot? You think you're some sort of expert on .......... now do ya??"

Those wanting to discuss this are just interested in the subject. There's really nothing else to it.

[Jakubclaret]

Sounds like they're going well past the official advice.

Yes, you do realise despite the official advice & whatever exceeds that, people play a part in that, Dave meeting Danny down the pub for a game of pool on a regular Tuesday night must be stopped, & Fiona meeting liz on a Wednesday night for the yoga class must be stopped. It will only be contained if people contain it.

[Lowbankclaret]

The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being treated. The population of Wuhan is over 10 million, which means that even if every single case in China was in Wuhan, still less than 1% of the population has caught it. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't spread all that easily?

On the other hand, if the rumours are correct and the actual rate of infection is say ten times the official figures, then the death rate suddenly drops by a factor of ten to less than 1%. Which is also good news.

They are the worldometer figures, but they are repeated on several other media sites.

China has locked down each City, people I believe are virtually locked into there own flats, that’s how they are stopping the spread and it’s starting to work, cases are dropping as are the death rates now. Which is great news.

I am very sceptical about the rumours of all these additional cases. Take Iran for example, Qom a religious site has had pilgrimages over the last few weeks and those people have have created cases in several cities in Iran plus 3 other countries.

The real anomaly in terms of data Is Singapore, they have I believe not taken major steps to stop the spread but it’s not spreading. This is really confusing that it’s not doing what’s it’s done elsewhere.

[Bosscat]

Yes, you do realise despite the official advice & whatever exceeds that, people play a part in that, Dave meeting Danny down the pub for a game of pool on a regular Tuesday night must be stopped, & Fiona meeting liz on a Wednesday night for the yoga class must be stopped. It will only be contained if people contain it.

Dave is sh*t at pool so has been dropped anyway and Liz put a rib out trying to do the Downward Dog last week.

[ClaretAndJew]

Well my Dad is the school itself and he feels fine.

[Lowbankclaret]

YOU suspect? Who are you then? Some super Guru who knowns more than anyone else including WHO.

You're an idiot, that's what you are.

Here we go again.
UTC SUPER BULLIES who make personal slurs at anyone who has an opinion they don’t agree with.

[Bop]

2 local schools closed & 6th form girls from our high school who went on ski trip to Italy sent home and directed to “self-isolate” for 10 days. A bit close to home for me as it includes my lads girlfriend and our next door neighbour.

[Zlatan]

Here we go again.
UTC SUPER BULLIES who make personal slurs at anyone who has an opinion they don’t agree with.

Lowbankclaret, you have to admit that you have been misleading people with incorrect conclusions from some of the right data. You started off panicking that the death rate was over 20% at one stage in this thread, and now you can see that those, like me, actually understood the data and were trying to reassure you as well as correct your wrong conclusions.

I still believe that this will simmer for a while and then disappear and my concerns are related to why this is such a big story. You’ve referred to SARS previously, and how the death rate was 9.6% which was worrying, and you still haven’t answered my question about how many people in the UK actually had SARS and how many died... would you care to answer?

[paulatky]

How is the government going to monitor if people are in fact self-isolating for 10 days ?
Will those people be able to claim sick pay.
What happens if due to being in wrong place wrong time a few weeks later and they have to self-isolate again ?
The country could well come to a standstill.

[thatdberight]

How is the government going to monitor if people are in fact self-isolating for 10 days ?
Will those people be able to claim sick pay.
What happens if due to being in wrong place wrong time a few weeks later and they have to self-isolate again ?
The country could well come to a standstill.

Or we could just get on with it while taking what precautions we can and let it play out.

[Jakubclaret]

How is the government going to monitor if people are in fact self-isolating for 10 days ?
Will those people be able to claim sick pay.
What happens if due to being in wrong place wrong time a few weeks later and they have to self-isolate again ?
The country could well come to a standstill.

If it jumped from animals to humans cannot it jump from humans to animals? So it’s also a case of keeping all pets indoors.

[thatdberight]

If it jumped from animals to humans cannot it jump from humans to animals? So it’s also a case of keeping all pets indoors.

But separate from their owners obviously. And from each other.

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbankclaret, you have to admit that you have been misleading people with incorrect conclusions from some of the right data. You started off panicking that the death rate was over 20% at one stage in this thread, and now you can see that those, like me, actually understood the data and were trying to reassure you as well as correct your wrong conclusions.

I still believe that this will simmer for a while and then disappear and my concerns are related to why this is such a big story. You’ve referred to SARS previously, and how the death rate was 9.6% which was worrying, and you still haven’t answered my question about how many people in the UK actually had SARS and how many died... would you care to answer?

That’s was the data at the time, I think I remember saying I expected that figure to fall, which it has.
It was the data , I didn’t make up the data.
It’s now sat at 9% , that’s the data, I haven’t made up the data, government’s have declared it.

It’s you guys who have speculated and suggested the future state.

None died of SARS, the world acted fast to close down SARS. Unfortunately it looks like this has broken out of the attempted containment.

Let’s see how this pans out over the next week or three.

[Zlatan]

That’s was the data at the time, I think I remember saying I expected that figure to fall, which it has.
It was the data , I didn’t make up the data.
It’s now sat at 9% , that’s the data, I haven’t made up the data, government’s have declared it.

It’s you guys who have speculated and suggested the future state.

None died of SARS, the world acted fast to close down SARS. Unfortunately it looks like this has broken out of the attempted containment.

Let’s see how this pans out over the next week or three.

You were and still are making conclusions from data that is right however your conclusions have consistently been inaccurate because you’ve selected the wrong “right” values. I have not drawn any such conclusions and I have maintained that the official current value for the death rate is stated by WHO and governments is between 1-3% (of which some have concluded as 2%) and I have demonstrated using logic why your initially quoted death rate is incorrectly reported and inflammatory and yet you insist on peddling the misinformation. Personally I understand your concerns because of your health, but if I was an admin on this page I would have warned you about misinformation and I would have ultimately banned your account for a few weeks as it is dangerous.

[paulatky]

Why is it dangerous ?
Its an opinion that anyone is entitled to.
My opinion is that the official data coming out of China may well be misleading. I have been called an idiot for having that opinion and I hope I am wrong but thats still my opinion.

We need to see where we are in 6 weeks time

[Lowbankclaret]

You were and still are making conclusions from data that is right however your conclusions have consistently been inaccurate because you’ve selected the wrong “right” values. I have not drawn any such conclusions and I have maintained that the official current value for the death rate is stated by WHO and governments is between 1-3% (of which some have concluded as 2%) and I have demonstrated using logic why your initially quoted death rate is incorrectly reported and inflammatory and yet you insist on peddling the misinformation. Personally I understand your concerns because of your health, but if I was an admin on this page I would have warned you about misinformation and I would have ultimately banned your account for a few weeks as it is dangerous.

So you have a degree and I respect that.

Please demonstrate your calculations that back up your claims and let’s have a professional analysis and debate.

Without resorting to personal insults.

[Zlatan]

So you have a degree and I respect that.

Please demonstrate your calculations that back up your claims and let’s have a professional analysis and debate.

Without resorting to personal insults.

Lowbankclaret, for the final time - it’s not anything to do with calculations but your data selection is wrong, that is all. Please could you tell me where I have insulted you?

[Zlatan]

Why is it dangerous ?
Its an opinion that anyone is entitled to.
My opinion is that the official data coming out of China may well be misleading. I have been called an idiot for having that opinion and I hope I am wrong but thats still my opinion.

We need to see where we are in 6 weeks time

It is dangerous to write as fact that the death rate is over 20% because you select the wrong data set. Yes dangerous because some people will read it and begin to panic. I don’t think you’re an idiot for having an opinion about China and the officialdom there, in fact I would agree there may be some merit in the argument but it is still an opinion. What Lowbankclaret has done and continues to do is use the wrong data from the right data source for concluding something that just is not true and misleading.

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbankclaret, for the final time - it’s not anything to do with calculations but your data selection is wrong, that is all. Please could you tell me where I have insulted you?

You haven’t, just don’t want it to result in that.

I suggest if we got into real mathematical calculations, you would struggle to defend your position.

[thatdberight]

I don’t think you’re an idiot for having an opinion about China and the officialdom there, in fact I would agree there may be some merit in the argument but it is still an opinion.

Clearly, China has a different type of government than we do but it's not a closed country. We all know how many Chinese holiday in Europe and further afield, how many of their kids are in UK universities. The thought that they are massaging away hundreds of thousands of cases and thousands of deaths is, although not inconceivable, less likely than it used to be.

[Zlatan]

You haven’t, just don’t want it to result in that.

I suggest if we got into real mathematical calculations, you would struggle to defend your position.

Now in am convinced your trolling, well played

[Lowbankclaret]

Let’s start with the WHO calculation prediction.

They use the number of confirmed deaths divided by the confirmed cases.

Simply that’s 2711 divided by 80420 and times by 100.

Currently using the WHO calculation method that’s 3.37 % death rate.


Which part of this calculation do you with 1st degree do you dispute?

[Zlatan]

You just don’t get it, but I do and I have tried to explain. I’ll let you peddle your misinformation now that I’m convinced you’re trolling. Others can come to their own conclusions on you and what you post. This is a serious subject matter and misinformation is dangerous, I just hope you finally understand.

[thatdberight]

Let’s start with the WHO calculation prediction.

They use the number of confirmed deaths divided by the confirmed cases.

Simply that’s 2711 divided by 80420 and times by 100.

Currently using the WHO calculation method that’s 3.37 % death rate.


Which part of this calculation do you with 1st degree do you dispute?

"...this formula can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

So let's start as we mean to go on by not quoting stats we know are ****.

[Jakubclaret]

Why is it dangerous ?
Its an opinion that anyone is entitled to.
My opinion is that the official data coming out of China may well be misleading. I have been called an idiot for having that opinion and I hope I am wrong but thats still my opinion.

We need to see where we are in 6 weeks time

Anybody with a modicum of common sense would realise the Chinese figures can’t be trusted, I wouldn’t go as far as incinerating bodies but if they was I wouldn’t be exactly bowled over. I think within a fortnight myself depends how much effort goes towards covering it up & painting a rosey picture, I think the Chinese are really concerned & working hard towards a solution but the extent of the death figures we’ll never really know, it’s difficult to find the truth out when people try to keep secrets.

[mdd2]

I think thus far the UK have had 13 cases and I think 8 have recovered with one lady in a London hospital plus the 4 now infected from the Cruise Liner and we seem to have managed to contain cross infection within the UK pretty well

[Lowbankclaret]

"...this formula can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

So let's start as we mean to go on by not quoting stats we know are ****.

It’s the calculation your all putting your faith in as used by WHO.

So what your saying is the WHO prediction is not to be believed???

When most of you are using it to say my calcs are not valid.


So what are you using to make your statements, voodoo, the bones of snakes, tea leaves???

[dsr]

Let’s start with the WHO calculation prediction.

They use the number of confirmed deaths divided by the confirmed cases.

Simply that’s 2711 divided by 80420 and times by 100.

Currently using the WHO calculation method that’s 3.37 % death rate.


Which part of this calculation do you with 1st degree do you dispute?

Start with degree of accuracy. How accurate are the figures? Barring lies, the death number is likely to be accurate. But the number of cases? Can you be sure that no-one has been missed; that no-one has coughed, decided it was flu, and recovered; and specifically, that the asymptomatic cases (reckoned by some to be as much as 50% of cases) have all been diagnosed?

[thatdberight]

It’s the calculation your all putting your faith in as used by WHO.

So what your saying is the WHO prediction is not to be believed???

When most of you are using it to say my calcs are not valid.

So what are you using to make your statements, voodoo, the bones of snakes, tea leaves???

It's not the calculation I'm using. I've said that repeatedly. There's only you doing that.

I'm not making any prediction, just passing on expert opinions. They, being experts, are not confusing CFR and IFR but doing their job and passing information. You're just trying to pass on your own fears.

[Zlatan]

I’ve noticed that Lowbankclaret has changed his calculation used from earlier in the thread, he previously used only the confirmed closed cases for his calculation, which is what I kept pulling him up on. I suppose if he’s no longer using that calculation that’s progress

[Lowbankclaret]

It's not the calculation I'm using. I've said that repeatedly. There's only you doing that.

I'm not making any prediction, just passing on expert opinions. They, being experts, are not confusing CFR and IFR but doing their job and passing information. You're just trying to pass on your own fears.

I am not passing on fear, not in a panic.

Cold facts based on data.

Your all now saying all the data is wrong, the WHO cannot be believed nor any of the governments.

None of you believe anything your being told.


Yet you attack me using official data.

Unbelievable!!

[thatdberight]

Your all now saying all the data is wrong, the WHO cannot be believed nor any of the governments.

None of you believe anything your being told.

I'm not saying any of that but , since you seem incapable of taking in or interpreting any information, I'm not surprised you think I am.

Oh, and it's "You're" not "Your".

I've merely passed on the opinions, views and data of experts (such as the WHO or those they cite) throughout while you've swung from conspiracy theory to badly-interpreted data and back again in an unhinged fashion.

[Lowbankclaret]

I'm not saying any of that but , since you seem incapable of taking in or interpreting any information, I'm not surprised you think I am.

Oh, and it's "You're" not "Your".

I've merely passed on the opinions, views and data of experts (such as the WHO or those they cite) throughout while you've swung from conspiracy theory to badly-interpreted data and back again in an unhinged fashion.

So is the calculation wrong or right???

It’s the most basic calculation, is the WHO calc a Valid or not.???

[Zlatan]

So is the calculation wrong or right???

It’s the most basic calculation, is the WHO calc a Valid or not.???

I’ll ask you the same question about using only closed cases, was that right or wrong as a calculation for an accurate death rate?

[thatdberight]

So is the calculation wrong or right???

It’s the most basic calculation, is the WHO calc a Valid or not.???

That doesn't even make sense.

I've already told you why we shouldn't be discussing CFR. I'm surprised you want to, anyway. 3% can't really be a scary enough number for you, can it???? (My extra question mark makes mine an even more impressive question than your previous, three- question-marked, rather nonsensical, one)

[Lowbankclaret]

I’ll ask you the same question about using only closed cases, was that right or wrong as a calculation for an accurate death rate?

That’s not using closed cases, it’s using the WHO calculation,

[Lowbankclaret]

Ok so we appear to come to a point where no one can really challenge me on maths or facts based on official data.

Even someone with a 1st degree.

Someone please do some mathematical calcs that can challenge me.

Everything else is just speculation.

[thatdberight]

Ok so we appear to come to a point where no one can really challenge me on maths or facts based on official data.

Even someone with a 1st degree.

Someone please do some mathematical calcs that can challenge me.

Everything else is just speculation.

Strangely enough the people doing this for real are not sat on a message board taking the two simplest numbers and misinterpreting them. And the latest from them is...
"current IFR estimates range from 0.3% to 1%."

Maybe you'd best stick with the 3%. It seems like it's the best number going for anybody looking to justify panicking.

Personally, I reckon the Chinese have burnt all the statistics.

[Jakubclaret]

7 dead of 220 infected in Italy?

You can add another 4 to that within 24hrs.

[Zlatan]

I think you are perhaps not in possession of all the facts.

You also need to look through the propaganda of the gov, trying to stop a panic.

Currently if you look at the percentages of people who have either died or recovered.

26% have died, 74% have recovered. Not exactly flu like numbers, Now the died percentage should drop over time.

However 15% of people currently infected are in a critical condition.

The Chinese have admitted anyone who dies who haven’t been tested will not be tested and hence will never appear in the figures.

What you also need to remember is the lag in the figures of the 14 days it takes to show symptoms.

The R zero number is currently 3-4 which means the spread will still be exponential.

Anyone who thinks this is not serious is not grasping the situation.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Is what you previously posted on this thread...

That’s not using closed cases, it’s using the WHO calculation,

All I have done on this thread is to highlight why your closed case calculations were misleading, now you’re attempting to changed your mind with a slight of hand and you’re now using another (more accurate, but still not the right way to define predicted death rate) calculation. It has been stated many times why you were initially wrong. So I’ll ask again, were you right or wrong when you quoted a 26% death rate?

[thatdberight]

You can add another 3 to that within 24hrs.

You sure now?

[Jakubclaret]

You sure now?

I edited post 7+4=11 confirmed.

[thatdberight]

I edited post 7+4=11 confirmed.

I think we have a stats expert somewhere on hand. He'll confirm on the old 7 plus 4 conundrum.

[Jakubclaret]

I think we have a stats expert somewhere on hand. He'll confirm on the old 7 plus 4 conundrum.

Just simply adding a relevant update, arguing about calculations can be tiresome,I’d rather keep myself updated with what’s really happening & leave the mathematicians to it.

[Devils_Advocate]

I think we have a stats expert somewhere on hand. He'll confirm on the old 7 plus 4 conundrum.

I have an A level in Mathematics and can confirm that 7 plus 4 is indeed 11.

[Jakubclaret]

I have an A level in Mathematics and can confirm that 7 plus 4 is indeed 11.

You sure its in maths?