Covid-19

[UnderSeige]

This is just the case of a broken clock being right twice a day, whatever the issue is he will always bring it back to not letting people into the country, coronavirus is just the latest excuse to shroud his racism.

He does appear to be involved a lot in issues relating to immigration, custom controls etc. Whether he is racist or not I will leave to you. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/sh ... age-racist

The point I was making is that some controls were required to ensure that people entering the UK (whatever race) were screened for COVID-19 before entering the community. After all 'common sense' would inform us that the disease would be started from someone carrying it into the UK from overseas (even one or more of our own citizens).

[AndrewJB]

Yes, I watched it. I tried to keep an open-mind, knowing full well that a programme on C4 called "Did the Government Get It Wrong?" may be a little biased.

There were plenty of examples of where the government hadn't followed scientific advice. Overall it seemed to me to be the scientists preparing for being made the scapegoats and getting in early, telling their side.

Just watched it myself now. There’s an overall air of amateurish incompetence that hangs over the government, is the digested conclusion. Some of the details, like; “don’t make the report too long or Johnson won’t read it” sounds like how he was when mayor. The period between late January and late March sounds like a car crash, with the government going first in one direction, and then another. An Italian minister saying Johnson was indeed very interested in herd immunity during a phone call before the U.K. government changed tack, and a great many experts saying they didn’t think people in government understood what they were dealing with.

[Zlatan]

Caught 2 so far

[UnderSeige]

Is the virus weakening?
There is a talk on YouTube that explains a lot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV8nF-MSlAs

Apparently the virus is subject to some sort of 'natural selection'. When the virus particles enter a person they bind to a receptor and then replicate into millions of other particles. As they replicate they mutate:

• Some mutate into particles that cannot bind to anything and then die off. They die even if they are transmitted to another person through coughing etc.

• Some mutate into very dangerous particles that kill the host

• Some mutate into particles that bind to the receptors in the host but don't do very much damage to the host.

The aim is to be able to survive and replicate. If they are so strong that they kill the host or are so weak that they can't bind to anything they don't survive. The only one's that survive in the long run (as the virus is transmitted between people) are the one's that can bind to the host without causing the host's immune system to kill them or them killing the host.

If this is right, as time goes by the fatalities should reduce and symptoms be less severe.

[CombatClaret]

Is the virus weakening?
There is a talk on YouTube that explains a lot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV8nF-MSlAs
If this is right, as time goes by the fatalities should reduce and symptoms be less severe.

This can happen but is not guaranteed see: HIV, Smallpox, Ebola etc.
It can mutate the other way, a virus is ok with being very deadly if it can successfully infect new hosts before it kills the current one.

[tiger76]

This Rossendale care home is proof that you can combat covid-19 by acting quickly https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... -18367654

[UnderSeige]

This can happen but is not guaranteed see: HIV, Smallpox, Ebola etc.
It can mutate the other way, a virus is ok with being very deadly if it can successfully infect new hosts before it kills the current one.

Yes it can mutate the other way before eventually eventually getting weaker.

Spanish flue started off fairly mild in the first wave although there were a number of fatalities. The second wave was the worst. The fatalities were mainly the young. It was so bad that people were passing away within 24 hours of contracting the disease. The third wave was less severe than the second and the virus faded as herd immunity occurred. It was a completely different virus than COVID-19 though.

The other main coronovirus (SARS) faded out fairly quickly. The MERS coronavirus caused a bad epidemic in several countries and has mainly gone but with the exception of occasional regional flare ups - as late as last year.

The main thing I got from the talk is that if the virus particles are too strong or two weak the virus can't survive long term. Through a course of 'natural selection' it attempts to co-exist with it's hosts to ensure it's long term survival.

Lets hope we soon have a vaccine to wipe the chuffer out.

[UnderSeige]

This Rossendale care home is proof that you can combat covid-19 by acting quickly https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... -18367654

Brilliant!

She said: "I put the care home in lockdown around two weeks before we were officially told to".
"It was obvious which direction the pandemic was going and our service users are all very vulnerable".

It's a pity it wasn't obvious to the government and their scientists.

[Erasmus]

I did hear several weeks ago one of the medical experts they have on TV saying that it was more likely that the virus would mutate into a less harmful form than into something more deadly. I can't remember who it was but the explanation she gave was similar to what has been stated here. It survives better if it is less harmful.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/antibody-brea ... 49393.html
Good news

[FactualFrank]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/antibody-brea ... 49393.html
Good news

While I love the news, it still sends a shiver down my spine whenever I read, "game-changer".

[FactualFrank]

The R number now above 1 according to the press in the North West.

[AndrewJB]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... covid-wave

Do you reckon the government will follow the science?

[Grumps]

The R number now above 1 according to the press in the North West.

And yet all the other data, such as hospital admissions, positive tests, percentage of population with the virus etc are all falling day by day.

I wonder if the two week lag in some of the data used in determining the R number is having some effect in this.

[UnderSeige]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... covid-wave

Do you reckon the government will follow the science?

So far the government have been reactive rather than proactive. They have acted like managers rather than leaders.

From the link you posted I think that this could be the key:

"Niall Dickson, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “We absolutely don’t want any more relaxation [of lockdown measures] until we are confident that the test and trace system is working both at national and local level.”

[bfcjg]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coro ... 61951.html
If this works we could soon start protecting those most at risk.

[FactualFrank]

I see that Matt Hancock is again thinking he knows more than leading scientists.

Sometimes it's just better that he keeps his mouth shut.

[tiger76]

94 year-old from Blackburn beats CV https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... onavirus/

[dsr]

And yet all the other data, such as hospital admissions, positive tests, percentage of population with the virus etc are all falling day by day.

I wonder if the two week lag in some of the data used in determining the R number is having some effect in this.

The longer this goes on, the more it suggests that the models they have been using are not very accurate. And this R number is using the same models.

[CombatClaret]

The longer this goes on, the more it suggests that the models they have been using are not very accurate. And this R number is using the same models.

The longer this goes on the more our actions lead us away from what the model predicted.

If you are diagnosed with cancer, they put you on treatment and you beat it, do you turn around and say 'well the diagnosis can't have been very accurate because I don't have cancer now.'

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-l ... 15138.html
Not just the protesters risking spreading the virus these stupid idiots are just as bad,even worse perhaps.

[tiger76]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-l ... 15138.html
Not just the protesters risking spreading the virus these stupid idiots are just as bad,even worse perhaps.

Yes i saw that earlier more sawdust brains, and no doubt the injured parties will expect the hard pressed NHS to tend to their self-inflicted wounds.

[dsr]

The longer this goes on the more our actions lead us away from what the model predicted.

If you are diagnosed with cancer, they put you on treatment and you beat it, do you turn around and say 'well the diagnosis can't have been very accurate because I don't have cancer now.'

I'm by no means convinced that the models used in the UK, which said that if we act like Sweden we will get far worse results than they had, are right.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/underestimati ... 47955.html
Some interesting scientific observation on here.

[MrTopTier]

Scotland, no deaths recorded from CV19 today.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dogs-detect-c ... 06324.html
Some remarkable use of dogs.

[tiger76]

Scotland, no deaths recorded from CV19 today.

Zero covid deaths in NI today, and only 77 across the UK, lowest daily figure since 23 March, which accidentally was the 1st working day in lockdown for many.

A caveat it is a weekend figure, and generally recorded deaths are lower at the weekends, but it is a hopeful sign, that we're finally getting on top of this virus.

[UnderSeige]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/underestimati ... 47955.html
Some interesting scientific observation on here.

They are not really offering any evidence of anything yet but it would be good to think that they are onto something. If it is something as simple as 'cross protection' by someone who has recovered from the common cold in the last year or two it would be fantastic.

They also mention certain countries such as Japan, Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic. What is different about their populations? Could it be diet or something else that has a simple explanation?

[keith1879]

I'm by no means convinced that the models used in the UK, which said that if we act like Sweden we will get far worse results than they had, are right.

Sweden are having a very different shape of epidemic and it looks as if their infections (or at least their detected infections) are still on the rise (possibly due to increased testing) although deaths appear to be on the fall. Comparing them with any other country needs to be done when their epidemic is clearly dying away for whatever reason.

[tiger76]

Scotland, no deaths recorded from CV19 today.

First day since 20 March there's been no recorded CV19 deaths north of the border.

[tiger76]

No new virus deaths in Scotland for second day in a row

No new coronavirus deaths have been reported in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the second day in a row the figure has remained the same, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Speaking at the daily coronavirus briefing in Edinburgh, Sturgeon said a total of 2,415 patients have died in Scotland after testing positive for coronavirus, no change on the previous day's figure.

She said this was "very encouraging" but it was likely that more deaths from the virus would be reported in the coming days.

The first minister said 15,639 people have now tested positive for the virus in Scotland, up by 18 from the day before.

There will be more deaths in reported in the coming days, but this is definitely a sign that Scotland is getting a grip on this virus, let's hope that remains the case.

'I did a little dance': Ardern on virus-free NZ

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has declared there are now "no active cases" of Covid-19 in the country.

She said nobody had been in hospital with the virus for 12 days - and revealed how she celebrated the milestone with her young daughter Neve.

There have only been 22 coronavirus-related deaths in New Zealand.

[tiger76]

More on NZ they aren't lowering their guard just yet very wise in my view.

New Zealand steps fully out of lockdown

While most of the world is only ever so gradually easing restrictions, New Zealand will be officially out of lockdown by midnight (12:00 GMT).

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told reporters she did "a little dance" when she was told that, as of Monday, the country no longer had any active cases. The last known transmission of the virus occurred 17 days ago.

At midnight, New Zealand will move to alert level 1, which means all domestic restrictions will be lifted. The only things that won't change for now are quarantine measures for arriving New Zealanders and a ban on foreign arrivals to stop the virus from coming back into the country.

Ardern warned that New Zealand would "certainly see cases again", adding that "elimination is not a point in time, it is a sustained effort".

[tiger76]

Death rate slowing in the US?

In the United States, 691 deaths have been linked to the virus over the past 24 hours. That's the lowest number in the past week.

At the peak of the pandemic, in the middle of April, the country had around 3,000 daily deaths.

Overall, there have been more than 110,000 deaths in the US and 1.9 million confirmed infections, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University.

[tiger76]

Lessons to be learned from NZ certainly i think.

How did New Zealand beat the virus?

With not a single active case remaining, New Zealand seems to have beaten the virus - or rather not allowed it to take hold in the first place.

How did they do it?

First, the country locked down quickly and comprehensively. The country shut borders as early as 19 March, while there were still fewer than 30 confirmed cases.

Seven days later the highest alert level kicked in, putting the country under a strict lockdown.

After five weeks of strict lockdown, the first takeaway food shops and some non-essential businesses were allowed to open.

Eventually, new infections dropped to almost zero in late April and the country was able to lift even more restrictions.

Fast forward to today and the virus seems to be gone. But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has warned there will be no open borders for a long time.

And due to their quick and decisive handling of the pandemic this is happening.

New Zealand will allow full crowds in stadiums when its domestic rugby union season resumes on Sunday, after the government lifted all domestic Covid-19 restrictions.

[CombatClaret]

Untitled-1.jpg (60.68 KiB) Viewed 2131 times

March/April time Wrongo couldn't stop posting approval polls, about all he had to defend the government response as their own actions couldn't.
Now reality has sunk in with the British public.

[Burnley Ace]

It’s incomparable - New Zealand has a population of less than 5 million, 47 people per square mile and is isolated in terms of geography and transit. London has a population of over 9 million and a density of 3900 per square mile.

[Zlatan]

Incomparable - another one ticked off on the "Ways to defend the government screw up over Covid-19 Bingo" card

[FactualFrank]

I don't imagine there will be many who argue the government were late on lockdown.

My view is that they've always put money ahead of people's lives.

[tiger76]

It’s incomparable - New Zealand has a population of less than 5 million, 47 people per square mile and is isolated in terms of geography and transit. London has a population of over 9 million and a density of 3900 per square mile.

He wasn't comparing us to NZ he was comparing us to similar sized European countries, such as France, Italy and Spain, if you seriously think we've performed better than them during this pandemic, then we'll have to respectfully disagree, and we have a benefit over those countries as we had advanced warnings of what to expect, and our response was still pitiful, hence why our fatalities don't compare well to other countries.

Our is it still too early to compare numbers yet, all those countries I've mentioned are seeing their daily death rates come down much quicker than the UK. We're making progress, but it's painfully slow.

And how BJ has the gumption to claim he's very proud of his government's response is laughable.

[Grumps]

Still to early to compare all countries. There was a table in the weekend press showing which deaths individual countries were counting. We were the only country recording in all circumstances.
Some only include hospitals, others only record where Covid is shown as the cause, where as we record all deaths following a positive test,others don't include care facilities.

[jrgbfc]

Auckland is still a fairly congested, overcrowded city with lots of poverty. Real achievement to stop it taking hold and spreading. Shame we can't do a swap, we'll take Jacinda Ardern and send Boris Johnson and Cummings down there.

[tiger76]

Auckland is still a fairly congested, overcrowded city with lots of poverty. Real achievement to stop it taking hold and spreading. Shame we can't do a swap, we'll take Jacinda Ardern and send Boris Johnson and Cummings down there.

You'd be lucky their borders are still shut, anyway NZ is too good for them, now Antarctica that's somewhere they couldn't cause any damage.

[tiger76]

Lowest daily death toll since lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52968160

[FactualFrank]

Lowest daily death toll since lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52968160

Certainly going in the right direction Tiger.

What's the thinking, that we need to give it until around the 14th-15th to see what the easing down has done?

[tiger76]

With this government heaven knows, but yes if these numbers are still low in a week or two, then we can be cautiously optimistic about further lockdown easing.

Hospitality might even start opening again https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52964669

[tiger76]

A village is missing it's idiot https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... -52966950

[Bfcboyo]

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... e-cricket/

Risky match of cricket .

I wouldn't like to be last in to bat .

[UnderSeige]

It’s incomparable - New Zealand has a population of less than 5 million, 47 people per square mile and is isolated in terms of geography and transit. London has a population of over 9 million and a density of 3900 per square mile.

South Korea achieved a similar result to New Zealand without going into lockdown. It all depends on whether a country has an effective containment plan. New Zealand and S Korea (among others) have had one from the start. The UK still hasn't got one.

Population
South Korea: 51.64 million Land mass: 99,720 sq km...... COVID-19 Cases: ..11,814. .. Fatalities:....273
UK:........... 66.65 million Land mass: 243,610 sq km .... COVID-19 Cases: 287,399..... Fatalities: 40,597

Cities in S Korea include Seoul (9.9 million); Busan (3.48 m); Incheon (2.9m); Daegu (2.5m); 5 other cities with a population in excess of 1 million; 13 other cities with a population in excess of 0.5 million.

"With approximately 70% of the country considered mountainous, the country's population is primarily concentrated in the lowland areas, where density is quite high". https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/com ... ed-kingdom

[UnderSeige]

Auckland is still a fairly congested, overcrowded city with lots of poverty. Real achievement to stop it taking hold and spreading. Shame we can't do a swap, we'll take Jacinda Ardern and send Boris Johnson and Cummings down there.

We'll keep Chris Wood though.

[Burnley Ace]

Incomparable - another one ticked off on the "Ways to defend the government screw up over Covid-19 Bingo" card

You are laughable, you think you can compare NZ with the UK. Learn to pick your battles Zlatan because you just look foolish.