Covid-19

[Gordaleman]

Of course it is.

But the point remains that your view that this is a trivial issue is just as bizarre and nearly as far away from what science there is as LowBankClaret's prognostications of doom.

The science, nascent as it is, seems to suggest that, if left unchecked and just allowed to run its course, this could kill 400k to 1M in the UK (lower end I think has most credibility). That's not a flu season by any stretch of the imagination.

Just because something hasn't happened yet doesn't mean that it's by definition trivial or apocalyptic. It's in the middle. Neither sticking your fingers in your ears nor going all Chicken Licken is a sensible response.

Putting words in people's mouths now? Not once have I suggested that Covid-19 is 'Trivial'. It's actually very serious but it needs to be put in the right perspective with other diseases. At the moment, approximately 3,100 have died from Covid-19 worldwide. None in the UK. 650,000 die worldwide from Flu every single year.

[thatdberight]

Putting words in people's mouths now? Not once have I suggested that Covid-19 is 'Trivial'. It's actually very serious but it needs to be put in the right perspective with other diseases. At the moment, approximately 3,100 have died from Covid-19 worldwide. None in the UK. 650,000 die worldwide from Flu every single year.

Not words in your mouth but you keep repeating your stat about flu as though that's a marker. The intention is to keep the number of worldwide deaths low but the impact of this CoVid-19 passing through a population unchecked seems like it would be much more serious than a season with no flu vaccine. If we agree on the science but you see 10k and 400k UK deaths as broadly similar so no big deal, that's fine. Estimation of the damage and how each of us respond to it are different things.

[Gordaleman]

Not words in your mouth but you keep repeating your stat about flu as though that's a marker. The intention is to keep the number of worldwide deaths low but the impact of this CoVid-19 passing through a population unchecked seems like it would be much more serious than a season with no flu vaccine. If we agree on the science but you see 10k and 400k UK deaths as broadly similar so no big deal, that's fine. Estimation of the damage and how each of us respond to it are different things.

There you go again. Where do you get 400k from? You love to exagerrate.

[paulatky]

There you go again. Where do you get 400k from? You love to exagerrate.

That assumes 60% of the population get infected and 1% die from it.

Seasonal flu kills 10,000 to 20,000 thats why this is far far serious.

The real hit will be in economic and social costs

Companies going bust and jobs lost, pension funds being underfunded ,shortages of essential goods, 15% fall in house prices etc

[FactualFrank]

Is that a FACT Frank?

It's a fact that I saw it mentioned on Facebook, yes. Whether the story is true, not read enough into it.

[FactualFrank]

Hong Kong pets face quarantine after dog tests positive for coronavirus

Seems to be a strange headline as it then goes on to say: The canine has been placed in quarantine for 14 days as a precaution but has no “relevant symptoms,” Hong Kong officials said Friday.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hong-kong ... ronavirus/


This article says: Hong Kong’s agriculture, fisheries and conservation department (AFCD) said in a statement that they had quarantined the pet dog for the standard 14 days after its nasal and oral samples tested “weak positive” for the virus, but added that they didn’t yet have evidence that it can be transmitted to pets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pet-d ... 2020-02-28


So could very well be click-bait shite.

[SingaporeClarets]

Good to hear from you. Thankyou for the feedback on what’s going on there.
I think the interest is that statistically Singapore appears to be progressing differently to other parts of the world.
I was wondering if the demographic of Singapore has a influencing the outbreak there.
I have not had time to look into it.
Maybe will have when get back from the Newcastle game.

Depends on the conditions that favours the virus spreading. We either spend our time exposed to tropical humid air or conditioned cool dry air.

Hygiene is taken seriously, people wear masks when they are ill and since this virus started spreading, people have been staying at home when sick. Measures are in place to prevent its spread. As mentioned previously, all office buildings and schools have temperature checks in place. During the week I must get my temperature checked 3 or 4 times a day.

I think the lack of cases reported in other countries is more concerning. Apparantly there has been a spike in pneumonia in Thailand, Indonesia still reporting zero cases.

I'd be more concerned about the consequences of countries being unable to properly detect carriers in poorer countries than working out why Singapore or Hong Kong is not seeing a sudden increase in cases .

[LoveCurryPies]

I went to a party last night, the people had just returned from northern Italy.

[thatdberight]

There you go again. Where do you get 400k from? You love to exagerrate.

We've been through this before. Are you stupid?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/ ... 62866.html

Or if you prefer to do (and are capable of doing) the maths:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... population

Multiply that by the 1% (unless you've got a better number than the WHO) IFR.

You're just the flip side of those who are panicking.

[thatdberight]

That assumes 60% of the population get infected and 1% die from it.

Seasonal flu kills 10,000 to 20,000 thats why this is far far serious.

The real hit will be in economic and social costs

Companies going bust and jobs lost, pension funds being underfunded ,shortages of essential goods, 15% fall in house prices etc

Agreed on the figure.

As we've discussed, I think some of your outcomes are right - I certainly know my company couldn't withstand a downturn if we went to "essentials only" for two or three months (as floated by government and senior health officials) but I don't think shortages of essential goods is right and other things would recover.

[paulatky]

We've been through this before. Are you stupid?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/ ... 62866.html

Or if you prefer to do (and are capable of doing) the maths:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... population

Multiply that by the 1% (unless you've got a better number than the WHO) IFR.

You're just the flip side of those who are panicking.

Exactly or in other words living in cloud cuckoo land.

Hopefully it will pan out somewhere in the middle.

The 400,000 extra deaths is probably overstated as a small percentage would be included in the 1 1/4 % who die every year.

But 300,000 -350,000 extra deaths here in UK will bring heartbreak to so many families

[Awayfromburnley]

What a load of bolox!

Would you like to back that comment up? I mean your rational and considered reply....

How about the fact that the alcohol does clean your hands but also removes the positive bacteria as well as the good? Within 15 minutes of using gel your hands will be more susceptible to bacterial growth of the bad variety as there are reduced good bacteria to fight them. Your hands have what is known as a mucus, and that protects you naturally.

I would post you a link to an academic article, but you probably can't read very well.

[ksrclaret]

At least this thread has finally solved the mystery of where IT had gone.

Step forward thatdberight. We should have known with his new user name. All the clues were there people!

[thatdberight]

At least this thread has finally solved the mystery of where IT had gone.

Step forward thatdberight. We should have known with his new user name. All the clues were there people!

Have I said something on here you want to disagree with? Factually, that is.

And I've already told one person this week the username is nothing to do with any boastfulness. I'd have taken "Imf******rightallthetime" if I'd wanted it.

[Clarinetclaret]

Putting words in people's mouths now? Not once have I suggested that Covid-19 is 'Trivial'. It's actually very serious but it needs to be put in the right perspective with other diseases. At the moment, approximately 3,100 have died from Covid-19 worldwide. None in the UK. 650,000 die worldwide from Flu every single year.

Yeah the fact that entire towns and cities are being put on lockdown is an overreaction I suppose? You need to talk to the WHO because you seem to know more than they do.
I cant remember ever hearing the WHO putting the world on high alert over flu. That's probably because we have a vaccine.
I think you should contact the WHO because you're quite obviously an expert.

[SGr]

Hysteria spreads faster than the illness.

[Bertiebeehead]

Yeah the fact that entire towns and cities are being put on lockdown is an overreaction I suppose? You need to talk to the WHO because you seem to know more than they do.
I cant remember ever hearing the WHO putting the world on high alert over flu. That's probably because we have a vaccine.
I think you should contact the WHO because you're quite obviously an expert.

He won’t get fooled again.

[paulatky]

Yeah the fact that entire towns and cities are being put on lockdown is an overreaction I suppose? You need to talk to the WHO because you seem to know more than they do.
I cant remember ever hearing the WHO putting the world on high alert over flu. That's probably because we have a vaccine.
I think you should contact the WHO because you're quite obviously an expert.

You need to get it into your head this is far far serious than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu. 10,000 - 20,0000 deaths a year in Uk
compared to potential 400,000 from this virus.

The fact we are in the very early stages confuses the majority of peoples perception of what is going to happen.

[Gordaleman]

You need to get it into your head this is far far serious than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu. 10,000 - 20,0000 deaths a year in Uk
compared to potential 400,000 from this virus.

The fact we are in the very early stages confuses the majority of peoples perception of what is going to happen.

Strange then, that where the virus actually started, the infection rate is going down and has been doing so for about ten days now. Yes, precautions are now being taken there and if needed, they will be taken here as well.

As for whole cities being shut down, that has nothing to do with the actual virus. It's just people reacting to it.

I've already said that it's a serious issue but you and others are going way over the top with fear.

I'll panic when there's a reason to panic.

[Clarinetclaret]

You need to get it into your head this is far far serious than seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu. 10,000 - 20,0000 deaths a year in Uk
compared to potential 400,000 from this virus.

The fact we are in the very early stages confuses the majority of peoples perception of what is going to happen.

I know it is.

[Clarinetclaret]

As for whole cities being shut down, that has nothing to do with the actual virus. It's just people reacting to it.
I'll panic when there's a reason to panic.

What? So they've quarantined towns but it has nothing to do with the virus?
Have you been dropped on your head?
I'm certainly not going to panic or stop going out but its obviously more serious than flu.
I agree some people overreact and the media loves hysteria. But the World Health Organisation deem it a very serious threat so you trying to pass it off as less serious than flu is laughable.

[Gordaleman]

What? So they've quarantined towns but it has nothing to do with the virus?
Have you been dropped on your head?
I'm certainly not going to panic or stop going out but its obviously more serious than flu.
I agree some people overreact and the media loves hysteria. But the World Health Organisation deem it a very serious threat so you trying to pass it off as less serious than flu is laughable.

You clearly didn't read what I wrote. I didn't say what you just said. Of course it has something to do with the virus. People's FEAR of the virus, not the virus itself. Social media has allowed fear to spread 1000 times faster than the virus.

[paulatky]

Liverpool were worried about the coronavirus but the real threat was Sarrs

[Spijed]

I hear there has been a case of the Coronavirus been reported in Iceland.

That's no problem as I'll continue to shop in Tesco's.

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

I hear there has been a case of the Coronavirus been reported in Iceland.

That's no problem as I'll continue to shop in Tesco's.

[Paul Waine]

Latest Covid-19 data tracking is Johns Hopkins CSSE:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Last updated 10:03:12 (UTC): Total Confirmed 83,704; Recovered 36,665; Deaths 2,859.

So, 8:13 p.m. update Total Confirmed 84,119; Recovered 36,687; Deaths 2,871.

United Kingdom now showing 20 cases, including 8 recovered.

and Northern Ireland also on their map: 1 case - apparently Johns Hopkins has declared N.Ireland independence from UK.

Latest figures from Johns Hopkins CSSE:

Sat 29-Feb, 9:13 p.m. update Total Confirmed 85,997; Recovered 39,761; Deaths 2,941

And, I believe they've now fixed their UK and Northern Ireland misunderstanding. UK now reported 23 cases, including 8 recovered. No separate figures for N.Ireland - at least one person at Johns Hopkins now understands that N.Ireland is part of the UK. (Whether they also understand that Rep Ireland is a separate country, well, we will only know if/when Rep Ireland is added to their report).

[conyoviejo]

I hear there has been a case of the Coronavirus been reported in Iceland.

That's no problem as I'll continue to shop in Tesco's.

Don't forget to wear your

[icu81b4]

Every cloud........or should that be every dust cloud

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51691967

[Lowbankclaret]

I had a look at the demographics of Singapore and interestingly it does not have a large section of olde people. Perhaps this is a contributing factor to the their being a statistical difference.
Add the to SC comments on the general understanding of good hygiene in the area after SARS.
Plus they keep telling us it should not spread in the summer, temperature in Singapore is 32 degrees as I write this. So perhaps it’s only being spread indoors in cooler temps.

0CA08E4F-E550-4BEB-A48B-522D65FA009F.png (1.17 MiB) Viewed 2188 times

[Zlatan]

I had a look at the demographics of Singapore and interestingly it does not have a large section of olde people. Perhaps this is a contributing factor to the their being a statistical difference.
Add the to SC comments on the general understanding of good hygiene in the area after SARS.
Plus they keep telling us it should not spread in the summer, temperature in Singapore is 32 degrees as I write this. So perhaps it’s only being spread indoors in cooler temps.

0CA08E4F-E550-4BEB-A48B-522D65FA009F.png

That’s a good appraisal of Singapore, and it does make sense

[thatdberight]

China
over 55s 22% of population
over 65s 11%

Singapore
over 55s 23%
over 65s 14%

Also, the jury is entirely out on the link between temperature and THIS virus. There are some reasons to think it may help but, for example, the CDC is saying there is no demonstrated link as at now.

[mdd2]

20% of UK population is over 65
There are just over 600,000 deaths per year in UK.

[Goalposts]

i would project there will be close to 5000 cases identified by the end of march in the uk

[BennyD]

At least this thread has finally solved the mystery of where IT had gone.

Step forward thatdberight. We should have known with his new user name. All the clues were there people!

Does anybody really care where the non-entity IT went? The new user name shows his hubris, but it’s such a pity IT didn’t have the bottle to come back after the election; there’s still a lot of loaded guns pointing in his direction. Gutless maggot.

[BennyD]

Have I said something on here you want to disagree with? Factually, that is.

And I've already told one person this week the username is nothing to do with any boastfulness. I'd have taken "Imf******rightallthetime" if I'd wanted it.

Arrogant and aggressive; yep that’s good old IT (Irritating Tw4t). I’ve now ‘foed’ him again.

[thatdberight]

The new user name shows his hubris...

I'm more likely to show my hummus.

For your information: https://www.sommerlouise.com/post/becom ... n-you-know

[thatdberight]

Arrogant and aggressive; yep that’s good old IT (Irritating Tw4t). I’ve now ‘foed’ him again.

Sadly then you won't get this, but it's quite amusing that you'll just believe something somebody told you with no evidence...

[mdd2]

Think IT style very different
Thatsberight and IT not one and the same IMHO

[thatdberight]

Think IT style very different
Thatsberight and IT not one and the same IMHO

I don't think he would have bothered to create me (way before his demise) and to have had some of the disagreements and to-and-fros I had with him simply to make it look like I was not him.

But it's the internet, so who knows. Maybe I only think I exist and I'm just a figment of IT's imaginings.

[Gordaleman]

i would project there will be close to 5000 cases identified by the end of march in the uk

And you'd know, eh?

Stop trying to scare people with your lack of knowledge. We will all know soon enough.

[mdd2]

looks to be taking off a bit now with the numbers up from 23 to 35 just announced

[thatdberight]

looks to be taking off a bit now with the numbers up from 13 to 25 just announced

from 23 to 35, I think.

[mdd2]

Just done the maths again

[Goalposts]

And you'd know, eh?

Stop trying to scare people with your lack of knowledge. We will all know soon enough.

/quote]

lol actually i have far more idea than i can say, and its not to scare anyone, theres enough people doing that, this virus will do what it will do.

but lets talk again at the end of march

[Lowbankclaret]

China
over 55s 22% of population
over 65s 11%

Singapore
over 55s 23%
over 65s 14%

Also, the jury is entirely out on the link between temperature and THIS virus. There are some reasons to think it may help but, for example, the CDC is saying there is no demonstrated link as at now.

If I said black was black, you would argue it was white!!!

[thatdberight]

If I said black was black, you would argue it was white!!!

Are my stats wrong?
Is my relaying of the CDC's position incorrect?

You suggested a theory based on a demographic difference between China and Singapore. It seems to me that difference doesn't exist.

You cited what "they keep telling us" without being specific. I quoted one of the main "they"s saying no such thing.

If I've done the maths wrong or misquoted the CDC, you should correct me.

[Lowbankclaret]

The UK demographics have a much bigger % of old er people.

79B48256-2D66-4EDB-B41F-1BEE75A9C415.png (316.38 KiB) Viewed 1857 times

[Lowbankclaret]

China
over 55s 22% of population
over 65s 11%

Singapore
over 55s 23%
over 65s 14%

Also, the jury is entirely out on the link between temperature and THIS virus. There are some reasons to think it may help but, for example, the CDC is saying there is no demonstrated link as at now.

Singapore has around 1 million people over 60, China has around 250 million.

The next debate I cannot be arsed to calculate is old people per sq mile.

[thatdberight]

Singapore has around 1 million people over 60, China has around 250 million.

The next debate I cannot be arsed to calculate is old people per sq mile.

Singapore is the second most densely populated country on the planet.

Singapore has a very high life expectancy and a high quality health care system. Is it possible that their older population also enjoys more years of good quality life and that this relationship between age and mortality rates is therefore diluted?

[thatdberight]

The UK demographics have a much bigger % of old er people.

79B48256-2D66-4EDB-B41F-1BEE75A9C415.png

This is true (much higher % than China / Singapore).

See. It's not hard to get agreement. Just say things that are true.