Covid-19

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:10 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:53 pm
This is true (much higher % than China / Singapore).

See. It's not hard to get agreement. Just say things that are true.
The percentages I have quoted are correct, but you still argue on a daily basis about it.


What are thoughts then on the Iran stats. They are horrendous on the opposite scale to Singapore.

Let’s see if we can agree on their percentages???

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:13 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:10 pm

What are thoughts then on the Iran stats. They are horrendous on the opposite scale to Singapore.
Would it be surprise if countries like Iran use this as a way to get rid of opponents they don't like as it's very convenient for them.

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:25 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:10 pm
The percentages I have quoted are correct, but you still argue on a daily basis about it.


What are thoughts then on the Iran stats. They are horrendous on the opposite scale to Singapore.

Let’s see if we can agree on their percentages???
It's never been your ability to divide that's been an issue. It's your inability to understand what stats mean.

There will be lots of variables. General health, health care system, possibly weather, political will, ability to control their population.

Introspecting on Iran's mortality rate (and the international expert community seems to view both deaths and cases reported as hopelessly unreliable) seems a pointless way for a layman to while away their Sunday afternoon (same applies to Singapore to be fair).

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:32 pm

12 more cases confirmed here in UK .

Will soon be impossible to trace how all those infected may have caught it from.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:34 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:25 pm
It's never been your ability to divide that's been an issue. It's your inability to understand what stats mean.

There will be lots of variables. General health, health care system, possibly weather, political will, ability to control their population.

Introspecting on Iran's mortality rate (and the international expert community seems to view both deaths and cases reported as hopelessly unreliable) seems a pointless way for a layman to while away their Sunday afternoon (same applies to Singapore to be fair).
I have regularly quoted stats, I am not sure I have tried to interpret meaning into them. I don’t think you can find any statement by me that this or that stats mean X number of dead etc.

I have said some stats are being quoted that misrepresent what’s being said to us the general public.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:41 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:52 pm
Singapore is the second most densely populated country on the planet.

Singapore has a very high life expectancy and a high quality health care system. Is it possible that their older population also enjoys more years of good quality life and that this relationship between age and mortality rates is therefore diluted?
It would be interesting to look at income distribution in Spore and compare that to China - and the UK.

Spore is a low tax, highly educated, highly entrepreneurial city state. Natural resources, almost zero, unless we count the geographic location, the entre pot between much of Asia and the row, thus a nation state that existence relies on trading and high achievement.

I'd anticipate that the demographic profile of Spore is driven by an economy that draws in young, highly educated people, thus a lower proportion of over 60s, because a lot more younger age groups are joining the population.

The UK, we've been around a lot longer.... and we are growing older.

Spore, of course, similar demographic profile to many south east Asian states, generally a growing, younger population. Per capita Spore is, again an estimate without checking "dr google" in the upper decile for income and wealth.

My colleagues based in Spore say they couldn't pick a better country to be faced with Covid-19 challenge.

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:48 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:32 pm
12 more cases confirmed here in UK .

Will soon be impossible to trace how all those infected may have caught it from.
Already is. Two cases with no known link to overseas travel.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Vino blanco » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:50 pm

Aguero scores for City. Got to be one of the PL greats.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:52 pm

Anyway this is what I find interesting statically speaking.

Worldwide
Total affected 87,704, died 2,995, active 4,202, recovered.

So the current closed case percentage of deaths is 6.5%.

The World heath calc Fatality is 3.4% .

Looking at Singapore at one end of the scale.

Total case 974, died 0, Active cases 32, Recovered 74.

Current closed case percentage of deaths is 0%.

WHO calculation for fatalities is of course 0%.

Iran’s statistics are at the other end of the scale.

Total cases 978, died 54, active 749, recovered 175.

Current closed case percentage of deaths is 23.5%.

WHO calculation for fatalities is of course 5.5%.


People keep saying I am quoting these to spread panic, NOT TRUE.

However, these stats are very interesting.

Why are they so different, If I was in Gov, I would want to know and quickly what is Singapore doing that Iran is not.

What can we learn to help us control this.

There are lessons in this data , but what are they.

Is it weather and temperatures , Singapore is hot , just looked at Tehran and it’s about 17 degrees in the daytime.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Vino blanco » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:52 pm

Sorry wrong thread. Must be that Spanish white wine.
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Paul Waine
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:54 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:32 pm
12 more cases confirmed here in UK .

Will soon be impossible to trace how all those infected may have caught it from.
Haslemere, which it appears is where the Surrey covid-19 case is located, is a typical London commuter town. Trains run from Surrey into Waterloo and then wherever the commuters need to travel on the underground. Let's see what happens the next few days.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:58 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:52 pm
The World heath calc Fatality is 3.4% .
You keep trying to give unwarranted credibility to this stat by describing it as the WHO's. It's just a simple division. Any idiot can do that. It's not the latest figure they've published as research into possible IFR - a number you don't like because it's too low.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:06 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:52 pm
Anyway this is what I find interesting statically speaking.

Worldwide
Total affected 87,704, died 2,995, active 4,202, recovered.

So the current closed case percentage of deaths is 6.5%.

The World heath calc Fatality is 3.4% .

Looking at Singapore at one end of the scale.

Total case 974, died 0, Active cases 32, Recovered 74.

Current closed case percentage of deaths is 0%.

WHO calculation for fatalities is of course 0%.

Iran’s statistics are at the other end of the scale.

Total cases 978, died 54, active 749, recovered 175.

Current closed case percentage of deaths is 23.5%.

WHO calculation for fatalities is of course 5.5%.


People keep saying I am quoting these to spread panic, NOT TRUE.

However, these stats are very interesting.

Why are they so different, If I was in Gov, I would want to know and quickly what is Singapore doing that Iran is not.

What can we learn to help us control this.

There are lessons in this data , but what are they.

Is it weather and temperatures , Singapore is hot , just looked at Tehran and it’s about 17 degrees in the daytime.
Hi Lowbank, where are you getting your figures?

Johns Hopkins current stats (4:43 p.m. today) Total 87,470 (similar to your's), deaths 2,990, recovered 42,670

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Spore: Total 102, Deaths 0 recovered 72. (see my post above about Spore).

I'm guessing there a couple of typos in your post: global recovered and Spore total cases.

Iran Total 978, Deaths 54, Recovered 175.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Iran's situation is much tougher because of (1) political regime and (2) sanctions because of Iran's "nuclear ambitions."

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SalouClaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:15 pm

I think you're all Imploding Turtle
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:21 pm

only thing imploding are the stats on the countries without cases

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:49 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:06 pm
Hi Lowbank, where are you getting your figures?

Johns Hopkins current stats (4:43 p.m. today) Total 87,470 (similar to your's), deaths 2,990, recovered 42,670

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Spore: Total 102, Deaths 0 recovered 72. (see my post above about Spore).

I'm guessing there a couple of typos in your post: global recovered and Spore total cases.

Iran Total 978, Deaths 54, Recovered 175.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Iran's situation is much tougher because of (1) political regime and (2) sanctions because of Iran's "nuclear ambitions."
His stats are from here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Not too dissimilar to JH stats, probably have the same data source but just different times of updates

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:39 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:58 pm
You keep trying to give unwarranted credibility to this stat by describing it as the WHO's. It's just a simple division. Any idiot can do that. It's not the latest figure they've published as research into possible IFR - a number you don't like because it's too low.
Well it’s how I read they calculated it.

If that’s wrong, post the link to how they calculate it and I can adjust it to that.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:40 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:39 pm
Well it’s how I read they calculated it.

If that’s wrong, post the link to how they calculate it and I can adjust it to that.
IFR <> CFR

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:42 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:06 pm
Hi Lowbank, where are you getting your figures?

Johns Hopkins current stats (4:43 p.m. today) Total 87,470 (similar to your's), deaths 2,990, recovered 42,670

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Spore: Total 102, Deaths 0 recovered 72. (see my post above about Spore).

I'm guessing there a couple of typos in your post: global recovered and Spore total cases.

Iran Total 978, Deaths 54, Recovered 175.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Iran's situation is much tougher because of (1) political regime and (2) sanctions because of Iran's "nuclear ambitions."
I have made no secret I am using Worldometer stats.

The problem now is they are changing every 30 minutes or so. Therefore different sites are quoting slightly different numbers.

It is only likely to make minor differences to the percentages.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:48 pm

As I said, I think there is an aspect in the data that could give us a clue on how to help us control this here.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:13 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:40 pm
IFR <> CFR
So I believe that’s the two calculations I have used.

If not you need to link stuff to educate me.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:11 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:40 pm
IFR <> CFR
No having done some research I am not using CFR.

But you do understand If I do that to CFR, the percentages are going to go up.

It has credit, based on the fact that deaths are a current measure, ie you know they are dead.

The current infected number is 7 days behind and so you use a number from 7 days ago.

It will not help your argument but may add to panic.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:18 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:11 pm
No having done some research I am not using CFR.

But you do understand If I do that to CFR, the percentages are going to go up.

It has credit, based on the fact that deaths are a current measure, ie you know they are dead.

The current infected number is 7 days behind and so you use a number from 7 days ago.

It will not help your argument but may add to panic.
How predictable that you go away and do some research - although how you managed to spend this much time and still seem completely unaware of IFR is beyond me - and can only find worse numbers. Despite having been very clear that you were following the "WHO fatality rate" (or whatever non-existent stat you were quoting).

What have you to say about IFR?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:28 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:18 pm
How predictable that you go away and do some research - although how you managed to spend this much time and still seem completely unaware of IFR is beyond me - and can only find worse numbers. Despite having been very clear that you were following the "WHO fatality rate" (or whatever non-existent stat you were quoting).

What have you to say about IFR?
Yes been doing that as well. FFS give me time to do the research.

In my defence you just offer arguments with no stats, no calcs.
I ask for links, you provide none!

IFR tries to argue there are a significant number of hidden cases that go undetected.

Whilst you can argue that might happen in some countries.
Here in the UK we have 36 cases and over 10,000 tested.

So how valid is it.

People can make up their own minds.
88624A73-6389-4686-A50D-4382DB1673A9.png
88624A73-6389-4686-A50D-4382DB1673A9.png (615.95 KiB) Viewed 2715 times

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:36 pm

I have taken a screen shot of today’s data so next Sunday I can provide the CFR data. It might be scary.

To me the IFR data is like sticking your knob in the wind and guessing it’s direction.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:28 pm


Spijed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:49 pm

I'm going for an interview this week and was told to wear my suit.

It might be a struggle answering any questions though.
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thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:01 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:36 pm
To me the IFR data is like sticking your knob in the wind and guessing it’s direction.
IFR is the best estimate of the people who actually know what they're talking about. It might be wrong because it might be wrong because there are lots of uncertainties. But multiple teams of people who understand the medicine and the epidemiology have looked at it and come up with figures in the 0.3% to 1.0% range.

Compared to Joe Bloggs just dividing the first two numbers that come to mind and banging on about it and who has been looking at it for two weeks without, it seems, even coming across this concept, I know what I'll back to be right most of the time.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:17 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:01 pm
IFR is the best estimate of the people who actually know what they're talking about. It might be wrong because it might be wrong because there are lots of uncertainties. But multiple teams of people who understand the medicine and the epidemiology have looked at it and come up with figures in the 0.3% to 1.0% range.

Compared to Joe Bloggs just dividing the first two numbers that come to mind and banging on about it and who has been looking at it for two weeks without, it seems, even coming across this concept, I know what I'll back to be right most of the time.
Yep your the expert backer.
If we vote to leave the EU , the apocalypse will happen, erm didn’t.

If we leave the EU , the apocalypse will happen, erm didn’t .

People don’t believe experts anymore.

The data I have quoted is the real data based on what’s really happening.

You back the experts, I personally will back real data.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:18 pm

Holy **** no.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:20 pm

One thing is certain, whatever happens with the virus, Boris and his mob will already be getting tested every day, so that if anyone contracts the virus, him and his cohorts will get immediate help before the virus really takes hold. No doubt the testing will be being done by an expensive private company but we the taxpayer will be funding it. If it ever becomes public, they will say that it wasn't for personal protection, but to make sure a functioning goverment survived.

Cynic? Who me? No, I just live in the real world and I know that the privileged few come first every time.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:20 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:17 pm
Yep your the expert backer.
If we vote to leave the EU , the apocalypse will happen, erm didn’t.

If we leave the EU , the apocalypse will happen, erm didn’t .

People don’t believe experts anymore.

The data I have quoted is the real data based on what’s really happening.

You back the experts, I personally will back real data.
****, you're thick.
Last edited by thatdberight on Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by barba » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:24 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:01 pm
It might be wrong because it might be wrong
The kind of insight we all need ;)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by conyoviejo » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:42 pm

Nice Cruise ..
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:46 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:20 pm
One thing is certain, whatever happens with the virus, Boris and his mob will already be getting tested every day, so that if anyone contracts the virus, him and his cohorts will get immediate help before the virus really takes hold. No doubt the testing will be being done by an expensive private company but we the taxpayer will be funding it. If it ever becomes public, they will say that it wasn't for personal protection, but to make sure a functioning goverment survived.

Cynic? Who me? No, I just live in the real world and I know that the privileged few come first every time.
I agree 100%, I'm starting to sense you are realising it's serious & the fear & panicking wasn't inappropriate earlier, you might be too stubborn to admit it yet, the 15 "minute figure" as doubled to over 30 in a couple of days & set to rise more.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:08 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:46 pm
I agree 100%, I'm starting to sense you are realising it's serious & the fear & panicking wasn't inappropriate earlier, you might be too stubborn to admit it yet, the 15 "minute figure" as doubled to over 30 in a couple of days & set to rise more.
I have said all along that it's serious. Of course it is. I just don't go along with your wild projections. We already have a mass killer virus that no one worries about that kills about 10,000 Brits every year. Seasonal Flu.

If, and I doubt it will, Covid-19 ever gets to those levels, then maybe I'll worry a little, but no more than I do about Flu.

Oh, and I'm in the 'At risk' group, having got Heart Disease, Atrial Fibrilation and Heart Failure.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:16 am

I am really sorry to hear about your medical problems and it must be a worrying time for you and in that respect I am surprised as you seem to be passing of the threat as “its just flu”

It could be far far worse and you need to take steps to protect yourself.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by claret2018 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:25 am

If it’s going to wipe us all out then it’s going to wipe us all out. No point worrying about it is there.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bullabill » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:27 am

conyoviejo wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:42 pm
Nice Cruise ..


Photoshop ? The top right corner is a clue.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:40 am

Bullabill wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:27 am
Photoshop ? The top right corner is a clue.
genuine photo of dickheads who broke a quarantine whilst on holiday - only the heading has been added

original post here
4:20 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:23 pm
ER4q1BXX0AM5e2l.jpeg

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:53 am

They climbed over the hotel wall at the back
of the hotel thats under quarantine in Tenerife and got a taxi to the airport. They were stopped eagle eyed security guards at the airport and returned back to the airport.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by NottsClaret » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:01 am

Everyone's going to get it eventually, am I right thinking we're just buying a bit of time until hopefully there's a vaccine?

Once it's officially declared a pandemic, do we abandon the containment thing then? At some point soon it's going to be pointless counting numbers, they're probably way underestimated anyway, as so many people won't even know they've had it.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:17 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:01 am
Everyone's going to get it eventually.
Wasn't there the same fear about SARS which never quite materialised?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:43 am

SARS one was a more serious infection BUT less easily transmissible and easier to control
As a result a vaccine was not developed (I think) and that is a pity as it may have offered some protection now or at least the technology acquired in its development may have been of benefit now

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:54 am

mdd2 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:43 am
SARS one was a more serious infection BUT less easily transmissible and easier to control
As a result a vaccine was not developed (I think) and that is a pity as it may have offered some protection now or at least the technology acquired in its development may have been of benefit now
And seasonal Flu, which already has a vaccine, kills 650,000 worldwide every year and 10,000 annualy here in the UK. Covid-19 may be serious but it's not on the same scale. Why don't we panic about Flu?

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:17 am

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:54 am
And seasonal Flu, which already has a vaccine, kills 650,000 worldwide every year and 10,000 annualy here in the UK. Covid-19 may be serious but it's not on the same scale. Why don't we panic about Flu?
We don't panic about flu because it's not got an estimated IFR of 1%. If you can find me a government document or health secretary saying that a "reasonable worst case scenario" is 500,000 deaths for a flu season, let me know.

Or in your case because you're determined to ignore the science.

Panic, by the way, will do no good but lumping all concerns or action to mitigate the issue into the same category as 'panic' is idiotic.

And it's "annually", by the way. If you're going to use the word "exaggerate" in your response, I've given you the correct spelling of that, too.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:35 am

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If it be your will
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:20 pm
****, you're thick.
For all the ridicule, derision and hostility that has been thrown at Lowbank over the last month, and nothwithstanding his occasional drift into conspiracy theory territory, his central message of 'This is going to be really, really bad, you know...' unfortunately looks to be turning out to be right.

Is it not time to afford him at least some respect for that, if nothing else?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:28 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 am
For all the ridicule, derision and hostility that has been thrown at Lowbank over the last month, and nothwithstanding his occasional drift into conspiracy theory territory, his central message of 'This is going to be really, really bad, you know...' unfortunately looks to be turning out to be right.

Is it not time to afford him at least some respect for that, if nothing else?
I started at the beginning of this thread quoting data suggesting mortality rates quoted of 2% and as the science has made tiny steps in understanding have followed those down to 1%. Still with caveats but I'm not in a position to second guess this credibly.

He started with Chinese conspiracy theories, went through recovery rates of only 6%, spotted Singapore on lockdown quoting non-existent media reports and is still clinging to a method of calculating the impact that every credible body advises needs to be treated as unreliable. And has now "had enough of experts". I presume he's still getting treatment for his other ailments. Maybe it's a different kind of expert who developed those. So, no.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SingaporeClarets » Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:32 pm

Ronan Keating obviously been reading the posts about Singapore being on lock down.

https://mothership.sg/2020/03/ronan-kea ... -covid-19/
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