Covid-19

[jackmiggins]

I’m a misanthrope. People, get out of my space when I’m shopping please - especially the ‘ums & ars’ choosing their scratch cards & paying with their loose change!! I’ve picked up so many colds from unhygienic ***** & won’t miss them at all.

[Jakubclaret]

OK. Poland cancels all mass events. Austria too. Spanish football goes "behind closed doors". A few snippets today.

Well talk about it then you shouldn't need prompting, some people aren't aware, the contributions would go further than arguing with another poster, forewarned is forearmed.

[Jakubclaret]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -time.html
Scientists say we are heading the same way as Italy in a fortnight.

[paulatky]

Didnt I say that yesterday

[Gordaleman]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -time.html
Scientists say we are heading the same way as Italy in a fortnight.

Quoting unnamed sources is something that the Mail is very good at, so maybe the report should be taken with a small amount of salt?

Before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm not saying the report is wrong. But.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The key to this is postponing any major isolation until we are closer to widespread outbreak, so that when people get bored and lose discipline (e.g. going to the pub) the virus is already past its peak. Experts say this timing is crucial.

There has to be sufficient intensive care capacity for all those who need it - thats the key to saving lives. Spread the cases over a longer period.

[Gordaleman]

Didnt I say that yesterday

Don't you know?

[paulatky]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -time.html
Scientists say we are heading the same way as Italy in a fortnight.

Just what I said yesterday

I was ridiculed and bulllied in here,

I cant help being ahead of the curve when it comes to using logic

[Gordaleman]

Re the possibility of playing games behind closed doors. A bit of good logic and science been thought about here, although again, the source is unnamed and that always leads to scepticism..



The Times reports that talks are ongoing over allowing the screening of 3pm games, which traditionally don't feature on TV.

A source told the newspaper: “It makes sense to remove the blackout but what we don’t want to do is create a new problem by just moving those crowds from the stadiums to the pubs.”

EFL matches could be made available via the League’s iFollow service, which is usually blocked on Saturdays.

Broadcast powerhouses Sky and BT may be asked to screen all Premier League matches for free but block their signal into pubs.

It is feared large gatherings of people in bars will spread the COVID-19 virus at a faster rate than people going to stadiums.

[mdd2]

The key to this is postponing any major isolation until we are closer to widespread outbreak, so that when people get bored and lose discipline (e.g. going to the pub) the virus is already past its peak. Experts say this timing is crucial.

There has to be sufficient intensive care capacity for all those who need it - thats the key to saving lives. Spread the cases over a longer period.

But if you can see what is coming you do not wait for the tsunami to hit before seeking high ground, so I am not certain watching and waiting is sensible.
We will see.

[Gordaleman]

But if you can see what is coming you do not wait for the tsunami to hit before seeking high ground, so I am not certain watching and waiting is sensible.
We will see.

You do if by proper communication, you can move even more people to high ground.

[mdd2]

I hope you are correct. Somehow for England I don't see it.

[Gordaleman]

I hope you are correct. Somehow for England I don't see it.

4.7 people per million in the UK, currently have Covid-19. One in about 250,000.

Take action and panic if you have to when it gets to the levels of Italy or S. Korea. Even there, the worst affected countries, figures are still minimal as a percentage of the populations.

[Jakubclaret]

Quoting unnamed sources is something that the Mail is very good at, so maybe the report should be taken with a small amount of salt?

Before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm not saying the report is wrong. But.

On the contrary, I'm assuming you haven't read the article posted, stating that comment above because if you had you would have realised within the article it's a professor stating that opinion & not the daily mails, the mail just published it.

[Zlatan]

Just what I said yesterday

I was ridiculed and bulllied in here,

I cant help being ahead of the curve when it comes to using logic

You also said this a few weeks back...

I find the main issue is not being able to trust the official numbers coming out of China.

I wouldnt be surprised if the real numbers infected are in the millions and 1,000’s of bodies being burnt daily,

and this...

If 60% of the UK population get the death rate is 1% thats 400,000 deaths over here.

That is very worrying

and this...

Thats a truly frightening statistic.
Even if all the other 213 infected recover (thats unlikely thats 3.4% death rate which if applied to UK popuation of 60% getting the virus would leave 1.3m dead.

Which may be why people have flagged you as someone who is a little reactionary on this subject, as I certainly have.

[CrosspoolClarets]

But if you can see what is coming you do not wait for the tsunami to hit before seeking high ground, so I am not certain watching and waiting is sensible.
We will see.

Possibly, but self isolate for too long and fridges run bare, patience wears thin, people get bored, money runs out and people need to work. Somebody with a minor sniffle may decide to go to the shop or workplace anyway. If enough do it, we have a major problem.

As someone who has been managing services in the past which included intensive care I know the big nightmare is full capacity - if two people urgently need life saving equipment and only one was available, the unlucky one dies. We have to be led by the epidemiologist advice, specific to the UK. As far as I can see, that’s what the government is doing.

[Jakubclaret]

Just what I said yesterday

I was ridiculed and bulllied in here,

I cant help being ahead of the curve when it comes to using logic

I know I've been following the thread on a daily basis even though not posting, I know pretty much who said what & when, I've been researching & learning as much as I can from a distance before considering it wise to post with an informed opinion.

[Grumps]

This time next week, everyone will have it.

373 have it at present, would take a massive jump for that, yet some on here think it could be possible.

[Grumps]

Paulatky has said a number of things that were right and, to be fair to him, has been one of the few willing to quantify things. He's sometimes slipped into quite a bit of exaggeration (in my view) but some of the people having a pop at him are people who won't quantify what they think will happen. So they can't be wrong other than that the tenor of their contributions

Sorry, that is absolutely untrue, paulatky has said nothing thats come true,I've asked him many times to back up his theorys and has failed to do so, the main one being why he links us with what's happening in Italy, yet fails to respond when it's pointed out to him the lifestyle difference and why things spread quicker in Italy than here

[Grumps]

You also said this a few weeks back...


and this...

and this...



Which may be why people have flagged you as someone who is a little reactionary on this subject, as I certainly have.

Excellent post

[mdd2]

The problem with epidemiologists is that they know how many will die but not who and when. Now the executioner-well he knows who and when

[paulatky]

Possibly, but self isolate for too long and fridges run bare, patience wears thin, people get bored, money runs out and people need to work. Somebody with a minor sniffle may decide to go to the shop or workplace anyway. If enough do it, we have a major problem.

As someone who has been managing services in the past which included intensive care I know the big nightmare is full capacity - if two people urgently need life saving equipment and only one was available, the unlucky one dies. We have to be led by the epidemiologist advice, specific to the UK. As far as I can see, that’s what the government is doing.

The UK has a severe shortage of intensive care beds

[Lowbankclaret]

Is this LowBank who said it's a biological weapon created by the Chinese government to control their own population numbers? Or another LowBank?

That particular conspiracy theory has popped up in several social media platforms since, partly due to there being a lab in Wuhan that was working with the SARS virus and also the demographic issue China has.
Once China reacted by introducing the lockdown I did say it was not a possibility.

[thatdberight]

Sorry, that is absolutely untrue, paulatky has said nothing thats come true,I've asked him many times to back up his theorys and has failed to do so, the main one being why he links us with what's happening in Italy, yet fails to respond when it's pointed out to him the lifestyle difference and why things spread quicker in Italy than here

A number of experts, including the deputy CMO, yesterday made a similar comment about us being a fortnight behind Italy (in terms of cases - outcomes may be different). As an example.

[Grumps]

A number of experts, including the deputy CMO, yesterday made a similar comment about us being a fortnight behind Italy (in terms of cases - outcomes may be different). As an example.

Neither have been proved right yet, try again!

[Lowbankclaret]

I read at dinner someone mentioned about me saying European countries would not accept lockdown.

I was thinking then that figures we were debating would be reducing and the percentage of deaths to cases in countries here would be more like what you guys have been arguing and less than what I have been argue I gotta.
In fact Italy’s figures are worse than figures I have been using.

So I guess faced with the terrible figures of deaths in Italy, people have admitted its necessary.

[Gordaleman]

On the contrary, I'm assuming you haven't read the article posted, stating that comment above because if you had you would have realised within the article it's a professor stating that opinion & not the daily mails, the mail just published it.

Sorry mate, I missed the name of that professor as it was squeezed between two charts.

The thing I don't quite understand is why we are considered to be a number of days behind Italy and other European countries. I've obviously missed something.

[jrgbfc]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -time.html
Scientists say we are heading the same way as Italy in a fortnight.

The Daily Mail loves trying to scare its elderly readers, but its normally weather or immigrant related.

[thatdberight]

Neither have been proved right yet, try again!

You're right of course. Not come true. We'll park this one and, whatever the outcome, I'll come back to it in the appropriate time.

[Zlatan]

So I guess faced with the terrible figures of deaths in Italy, people have admitted its necessary.

apologies first as I don't actually have a link, but it was something that was discussed on BBC news yesterday evening on the news channel. The demographic of those who have died in Italy (and in this country) include a majority of people over the age of 60, and the majority of them all had underlying health issues (heart issues etc). For me this virus emphasises the point about why it is a good idea to have the flu vaccination every year if you're eligible, as this is the result of not having a vaccine available. The vast majority of "normal" healthy adults are surviving this virus with little or no major issues.

[Wokingclaret]

You're right of course. Not come true. We'll park this one and, whatever the outcome, I'll come back to it in the appropriate time.

Of course, if there is anyone one of us left on here

[Jakubclaret]

Sorry mate, I missed the name of that professor as it was squeezed between two charts.

The thing I don't quite understand is why we are considered to be a number of days behind Italy and other European countries. I've obviously missed something.

Because it's more advanced in them countries & we are lagging behind on that front, it's not something I'd be complaining about it to be honest (not implying you are) the longer we can keep this controlled & at a bay is a good thing, the trajectory was based upon the patterns of development within other countries, call it a understanding or a prediction of what COULD happen.

[Jakubclaret]

Sorry mate, I missed the name of that professor as it was squeezed between two charts.

The thing I don't quite understand is why we are considered to be a number of days behind Italy and other European countries. I've obviously missed something.

University college London biology professor, DR francis Balloux.

[Grumps]

You're right of course. Not come true. We'll park this one and, whatever the outcome, I'll come back to it in the appropriate time.

No problem, do we do the same with all the other wild possibilities paulatky has come up with?

[paulatky]

Sorry, that is absolutely untrue, paulatky has said nothing thats come true,I've asked him many times to back up his theorys and has failed to do so, the main one being why he links us with what's happening in Italy, yet fails to respond when it's pointed out to him the lifestyle difference and why things spread quicker in Italy than here

Grumps you are the person that said UK cases may have peaked at about 80,

I offered you a wager of £100 for charity but you wouldnt take me up on it.

[Gordaleman]

A snippet from a much larger article in yesterdays Telegraph.

Comparison between Italy and the UK.

Professor Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the pattern of infection appeared to be different in the UK.

“Personally, I do not think that such a large-scale lockdown would be appropriate in the UK. Compared to Italy and indeed China, cases in the UK seem to be spread throughout the country with no real concentration in one or two areas, so banning movement from one area to another would not necessarily achieve anything useful in the UK,” he said.

I closed the page down without copying the link and now I can'y find the article again. Sorry.

[FactualFrank]

Italy coronavirus prison riots death toll increases to 12

The number of dead from riots in Italy's overcrowded prisons over measures imposed to contain the coronavirus has increased to 12, officials said.

Inmates, many angered by restrictions on family visits, started going on the rampage on Sunday, setting fires, taking hostages and escaping from one prison.

The most violent protests had been brought under control, the ministry said in a statement, but occupations and demonstrations were still going on in 10 prisons.

All hostages, most of them guards and health workers, had been released by the inmates or freed by police.

Most of the deaths were believed to be from overdoses of drugs the inmates stole from clinics they rampaged, the ministry said.

[Lowbankclaret]

apologies first as I don't actually have a link, but it was something that was discussed on BBC news yesterday evening on the news channel. The demographic of those who have died in Italy (and in this country) include a majority of people over the age of 60, and the majority of them all had underlying health issues (heart issues etc). For me this virus emphasises the point about why it is a good idea to have the flu vaccination every year if you're eligible, as this is the result of not having a vaccine available. The vast majority of "normal" healthy adults are surviving this virus with little or no major issues.

Firsty I agree .
I posted figures earlier (couple of days) from Italy, it will have changed and not seen newer figures, 99% of deaths in Italy were people over 60 years old.

[Grumps]

Grumps you are the person that said UK cases may have peaked at about 80,

I offered you a wager of £100 for charity but you wouldnt take me up on it.

This shows how bad you are at basic reading skills, never mind digesting information and making sense of it.
I never said that, in fact my exact words were that nobody knows when it peaks, now go back to your corporate day out, and post back when you're sober and can remember what has been actually said.

[Gordaleman]

I like this page, especially myth No. 9.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... rus-myths/

[thatdberight]

No problem, do we do the same with all the other wild possibilities paulatky has come up with?

No. You'll have seen that I've challenged him on quite a few occasions.

[thatdberight]

A snippet from a much larger article in yesterdays Telegraph.

Comparison between Italy and the UK.

Professor Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the pattern of infection appeared to be different in the UK.

“Personally, I do not think that such a large-scale lockdown would be appropriate in the UK. Compared to Italy and indeed China, cases in the UK seem to be spread throughout the country with no real concentration in one or two areas, so banning movement from one area to another would not necessarily achieve anything useful in the UK,” he said.

I closed the page down without copying the link and now I can'y find the article again. Sorry.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ate-italy/

[Lowbankclaret]

It’s snippets like this that do concern me, no mention of underlying condition. 38 year old been on a ventilator keeping him alive. Good news is he recovered but this must have been serious.
Are we really being told the truth, that’s my concern. This is a sky news report.

96089EE2-3F78-4413-979D-79C8098E7392.png (1.07 MiB) Viewed 3225 times

[Claret32yrs]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -time.html
Scientists say we are heading the same way as Italy in a fortnight.

Hope not. I can't speak a word of Italian!

[Gordaleman]

I mentioned this briefly before but no one responded, so let me ask again, as I've obviouy missed something.

Why is the UK considered to 13.5 days (Half a day?) behind Italy and why would that be case? The same thing is being applied to other European countries as well with different timescales.

[FactualFrank]

I mentioned this briefly before but no one responded, so let me ask again, as I've obviouy missed something.

Why is the UK considered to 13.5 days (Half a day?) behind Italy and why would that be case? The same thing is being applied to other European countries as well with different timescales.

I assume it's because they see the increase going on here as a similar increase rate as what happened in Italy.

[Gordaleman]

I assume it's because they see the increase going on here as a similar increase rate as what happened in Italy.

Yes, I understand that, but why is Britain so far behind the rest of Europe? Don't people travel to the UK at the same speed?

[Grumps]

I mentioned this briefly before but no one responded, so let me ask again, as I've obviouy missed something.

Why is the UK considered to 13.5 days (Half a day?) behind Italy and why would that be case? The same thing is being applied to other European countries as well with different timescales.

Nobody knows only paulatky, and he refuses to answer why.

[Lowbankclaret]

I mentioned this briefly before but no one responded, so let me ask again, as I've obviouy missed something.

Why is the UK considered to 13.5 days (Half a day?) behind Italy and why would that be case? The same thing is being applied to other European countries as well with different timescales.

Just extrapolate the graph, I know it’s simplistic, people are kinda guessing the rates are similar.

CB627CA5-1A83-4073-B456-131C73DB32E2.png (415.39 KiB) Viewed 3142 times

[Jakubclaret]

Hope not. I can't speak a word of Italian!

There’s a few select people on here who post who pretty much know exactly what’s going on or have a fair idea, I’d just check for updates, as & when, right now it’s the critical phase if it starts rising more than 54 on a daily basis doesn’t bode well.