Covid-19

[CombatClaret]

Maybe you could try to help this stupid person understand why testing is critical and how it in and of itself saves lives.

By knowing who has it and who has had it we can protect those at risk from them, thus helping to save lives. The test itself will not save a life, but is part of the larger strategy including the exit strategy.
Without it we may have to endure harsher lockdown and distancing measures than we need to. Conversely and more importantly we may put people needlessly at risk without it.
In war radar does not saves lives or win battles but you need to know where the thing you're fighting is, where is going, where it's been, who might be in it's path etc.
And I think you're smart enough to both understand that and also do your own research but you're being deliberately obtuse in the face of our poor testing record.

[KateR]

Fair enough its just something we will have to disagree on. Without testing we are much more likely IMO to take more precaution and jump back into lockdown/isolation where it maybe isn't necessary.

With testing we can get more info about the spread of the virus and who has already had it and that can help inform decisions around future social distancing measures.

Am hearing reports that even if you've had the virus you can still get it again, does that play in to the testing theory at all? Am just asking questions and value your opinion plus anyone else's if on topic?

[IanMcL]

The Times article today, revealed the ineptitude of our political leaders who still, to this day (Mr Gove on Marr) trot out total bollo cks and think we are gullible enough to believe them.

They are killing many more of us than necessary by ignoring all the early science warnings, from around the world.

To boast that testing was being done, all over the world, thanks to Oxford University work, in February and then not actually produce it ourselves, is a criminal act. PM Johnson declared ear, before disappearing. If this is war, we are losing thanks to him and his Government and all the tory Governments of the last 10 years. They are war criminals all.

[jackmiggins]

Quite clear that some on here are either obtuse or lacking intelligence. Govt have wheeled out sacrificial Gove and a school kid today. Others conspicuous by their absence - what’s more concerning is the BBC trying to smooth the path (Marr excepted, & even he held back).
We are desperate for tests, PPE & a coherent way forward.

[IanMcL]

Where's Mr Mr Dyson's ventilator?
Did he make one and the prototype sucked the air out of the patient, or something?

[FactualFrank]

LOCKDOWN MASTERPLAN: A SECRET “traffic light” masterplan to ease Britain out of lockdown in three stages has been drawn up by government scientists.

The first steps towards normal life could begin within the next four weeks if infection rates begin to fall. Scientists draw up top-secret ‘traffic light’ system to ease Britain out of lockdown.

In the “red” phase, people will still be banned from many things they did before the outbreak, but a number of non-essential shops and businesses would re-open.

On “amber”, caution would still be required despite much more economic activity being unlocked.

This would be followed by the green light for much of normal life to resume — but with measures still in place to avoid infection.

However the old and vulnerable could face indefinite lockdown unless a vaccine is developed soon.

Some officials are concerned the over-70s and those with poor health may have to be shielded for up to 18 months, even when many of the restrictions have been lifted.

An insider said: “It’s going to be a slow path back. But just because we aren’t talking about it doesn’t mean we aren’t thinking about it.”

Senior officials are increasingly optimistic deaths and infections have reached their peak due to the NHS working wonders and the “stay at home” message being obeyed by the vast majority.

The first tentative steps are unlikely to be taken before May 11, according to documents seen by The Sun on Sunday.

This would allow small, non-essential shops and businesses to re-open, providing they observed strict social distancing.

Low-risk personal activities would be allowed, such as visits to hairdressers and shopping trips providing masks were worn. Nurseries would reopen.

The amber phase could be ushered in by June — but no earlier than May 25. It would lift the ban on car journeys and family visits.

Commuters would wear masks and gloves on public transport and hand sanitisers would be provided on trains. Work times would be staggered in order to minimise rush-hour crowding.

Small firms would be allowed to re-open, as would schools and libraries. Restaurants could serve again with strict seating plans to uphold social distancing.

The green phase is expected in July, but could come as early as June 15 if progresses is better than expected.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11428725/ ... asterplan/

[Grumps]

LOCKDOWN MASTERPLAN: A SECRET “traffic light” masterplan to ease Britain out of lockdown in three stages has been drawn up by government scientists.

The first steps towards normal life could begin within the next four weeks if infection rates begin to fall. Scientists draw up top-secret ‘traffic light’ system to ease Britain out of lockdown.

In the “red” phase, people will still be banned from many things they did before the outbreak, but a number of non-essential shops and businesses would re-open.

On “amber”, caution would still be required despite much more economic activity being unlocked.

This would be followed by the green light for much of normal life to resume — but with measures still in place to avoid infection.

However the old and vulnerable could face indefinite lockdown unless a vaccine is developed soon.

Some officials are concerned the over-70s and those with poor health may have to be shielded for up to 18 months, even when many of the restrictions have been lifted.

An insider said: “It’s going to be a slow path back. But just because we aren’t talking about it doesn’t mean we aren’t thinking about it.”

Senior officials are increasingly optimistic deaths and infections have reached their peak due to the NHS working wonders and the “stay at home” message being obeyed by the vast majority.

The first tentative steps are unlikely to be taken before May 11, according to documents seen by The Sun on Sunday.

This would allow small, non-essential shops and businesses to re-open, providing they observed strict social distancing.

Low-risk personal activities would be allowed, such as visits to hairdressers and shopping trips providing masks were worn. Nurseries would reopen.

The amber phase could be ushered in by June — but no earlier than May 25. It would lift the ban on car journeys and family visits.

Commuters would wear masks and gloves on public transport and hand sanitisers would be provided on trains. Work times would be staggered in order to minimise rush-hour crowding.

Small firms would be allowed to re-open, as would schools and libraries. Restaurants could serve again with strict seating plans to uphold social distancing.

The green phase is expected in July, but could come as early as June 15 if progresses is better than expected.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11428725/ ... asterplan/

Government said earlier today this was not the case

[FactualFrank]

Government said earlier today this was not the case

Fair enough. I've stopped watching the news as much, as it was making me feel bloody miserable!

[Grumps]

Fair enough. I've stopped watching the news as much, as it was making me feel bloody miserable!

I know the feeling..... Plus I was getting hopeful when I saw the article

[Paul Waine]

I’m not a political animal so this is a genuine question. If this is thought to be something that should cause a change of government due to a dereliction of duty, was there any political party calling for a ‘lockdown’ prior to when this government imposed one?
My thoughts of us ‘all working together’, sounds like ‘let’s not be a party of opposition until we are presented with a golden opportunity as mistakes will inevitably be made’. ‘Then we can pounce’.
Of course there is nothing to suggest that any political parties would react any differently.

Times Insight article states 24th Jan the cobra committee judged the coronavirus risk to UK as low. I've wondered whether there was any indication, anywhere, that this risk assessment was seen differently. As a proxy for risk, I've looked at stock markets, FTSE 100 and Dow, off a little bit from their early year highs, but not "flashing amber" never mind signalling the biggest economic fall for decades. Similarly, Brent crude trading in mid-$50s, which reflected the fall in demand for jet fuel as fewer flights in Asia. Neither financial markets or commodity markets seemed to be saying "panic, there's a pandemic on the way."

[KateR]

By knowing who has it and who has had it we can protect those at risk from them, thus helping to save lives. The test itself will not save a life, but is part of the larger strategy including the exit strategy.
Without it we may have to endure harsher lockdown and distancing measures than we need to. Conversely and more importantly we may put people needlessly at risk without it.
In war radar does not saves lives or win battles but you need to know where the thing you're fighting is, where is going, where it's been, who might be in it's path etc.
And I think you're smart enough to both understand that and also do your own research but you're being deliberately obtuse in the face of our poor testing record.

Thank you for the response, yes I have done my own research, lot's of it and why I post pictures and graphs rather than newspaper links, which I think help to understand as long as you look at balanced news on many things.

In terms of testing and your response I would counter and say at a certain point, through testing it was better understood as to ramifications through facts and not through modeling as it was in the early days. The testing results are what drove in the earlier days, stay home, protect yourself, distance because it's going to spread. Just providing warnings ended up like speed signs, people see/hear, ignore and drive well above the speed limit when they think they can get away with it. So the warnings didn't work and hey, it's now a law, pubs/entertainment etc. is shutdown in order to reduce places where we would all normally go and spread. Some people calling for relaxation, some for a harder lockdown, punitive measures to ensure people don't go out and spread it.

That for me is the strategy to prevent spread now and not testing, just my thoughts as I say, I think you and virtually everyone else is very skeptical of the testing done to date and also the numbers being provided in terms of new cases, I know I am.

I have not been tested, how many here have been tested, science is saying even if you've had it then it doesn't mean you wont catch it again.

I think we are in agreement that testing in and of itself doesn't stop anyone catching it, therefore again I think we can agree its a statistic used as one measure to make other decisions but when you're testing so few how credible is it other than to give a snapshot over time. Testing results by days being of no use, weeks will give a trend/perception of if and when it's safe to move to lockdown release by small increments, this is the use of it but for me it's you're lockdown until May so weeks away. Therefore is of little interest but not key and I think most are accepting when we do start coming out testing it will be important again to see if there is the second wave and what measures will a Gov. take when assessing the testing numbers again at that time.

[jrgbfc]

Government said earlier today this was not the case

Can the Tories be trusted on anything they say? Even this lot aren't so inept they won't be forming some kind of plan to ease lockdown.

[Devils_Advocate]

Am hearing reports that even if you've had the virus you can still get it again, does that play in to the testing theory at all? Am just asking questions and value your opinion plus anyone else's if on topic?

Its still an unknown if and how likely you can catch the virus a second time but either way testing is still important. For a start the more testing we do the more confident we can be about the above but there's so many strands to what testing can do for me its a must

Without testing we are somewhat walking into the 2nd phase of the battle blindfolded and after the chaos of the initial outbreak I want to be as in control and as prepared as possible

If I see a strategy that looks to be backed up by good science that does not see testing as a key component then Id be happy to reconsider my opinion.

At the moment we all just need to wait and see what strategy the govt and their advisers propose. When this happens transparency and clarity will what I will be looking for from the govt

[Paul Waine]

Where's Mr Mr Dyson's ventilator?
Did he make one and the prototype sucked the air out of the patient, or something?

Matthew Syed mentioned Dyson in a commentary piece in today's Sunday Times.

When scientists and engineers come together, they win grand prix races . . . then save lives

A few extracts, below. The full article is worth a read for other points.

Last month Mercedes announced that it had teamed up with University College London to create a non-invasive breathing device, reverse-engineering a vintage piece of NHS kit called a WhisperFlow CPap. The team worked relentlessly, often through the night, and despite difficulties with the valves and oxygen flow, completed a challenge that might have taken two years in less than a hundred hours. My only surprise is that it took that long. They shipped the most recent batch on Wednesday afternoon.

James Dyson is another who has demonstrated urgency and imagination at this time of national emergency. This is an engineer who forged his reputation by testing at speed, working through more than 5,000 prototypes to arrive at his dual-cyclone vacuum cleaner. “Engineering is about solving problems,” he told me, “and this requires a willingness to adapt.”

I happened to visit Dyson’s plant a couple of weeks before the coronavirus crisis struck, learning about plans to reimagine long-life batteries and air filtration. As the dangers of Covid-19 loomed, the hangar was transformed into a war room where experts from electronics, software and manufacturing came together to create a ventilator. They could have copied an existing design under licence but, faced with bottlenecks in the supply chain, sought to produce a device with non-traditional components. It took them just 35 days, despite constantly changing specifications issued by the government. The ventilator is now awaiting regulatory approval.

[IanMcL]

Like I said....still no Mr Dyson ventilator

[mdd2]

To quote Donald Rumsfeld there are knowns and unknowns here
Unknown 1) how long a person who has had it has some or total immunity against re-infection; it is assumed there will be as that is the case with most viruses. 2) if any of the antibody tests available now or in the future will mean immunity or indeed that a person has had the infection as there maybe false positives.
Known 1) the test that you have for the virus presently has a false negative rate of about 25% that means in 1 in 4 who have the virus will test negative on first testing. A positive test is pretty reliable that you have the virus if you are ill
2) This test does NOT prove you have living virus in/on you. You could be shedding dead virus and so if you are perfectly healthy it is hard to know what a positive result means. To know that you have it means culturing your secretion on a medium, often egg (or used to be) and growing the live virus.
3) It is better to stick swabs right up the nose than swab the throat, former more likely to give a positive result
4) RT_PCR picks up bits of virus and enlarges the quantity to allow the lab to say you have some bits of the virus on you.
Any virologists on here will confirm or refute some or all of the above.
Testing as we have it presently cannot save lives other than by isolating those who test positive so that they do not spread it. It is no better than what we are doing in stopping the epidemic namely social isolation but it may help to unlock part of society.
What I don't get in this test test test-April 30th we test 100,000 people, 2,000 test positive, so statistically we have missed 667 who have it; when do we retest those 98000 negative folk?
I get it if we are trying to chase up contacts of positive cases. i am surprised that an NHS worker with a snotty nose is allowed back to work if they test negative-if indeed that is what happens

[TheFamilyCat]

Government said earlier today this was not the case

I know it's The Sun, but surely they wouldn't publish this without some truth to it. Of course the government will deny it now as they don't want the details to be made public until they know for sure that they will be implemented.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Government response to the Sunday Times article.

https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04 ... t-article/

[KateR]

Its still an unknown if and how likely you can catch the virus a second time but either way testing is still important. For a start the more testing we do the more confident we can be about the above but there's so many strands to what testing can do for me its a must

Without testing we are somewhat walking into the 2nd phase of the battle blindfolded and after the chaos of the initial outbreak I want to be as in control and as prepared as possible

If I see a strategy that looks to be backed up by good science that does not see testing as a key component then Id be happy to reconsider my opinion.

At the moment we all just need to wait and see what strategy the govt and their advisers propose. When this happens transparency and clarity will what I will be looking for from the govt

At the moment we all just need to wait and see what strategy the govt and their advisers propose. When this happens transparency and clarity will what I will be looking for from the govt. This is the key part for me, where testing is an important element of being able to make the decision, how good the data is remains a bone of contention, but again just for me, it's not important right now in the "fight" against the virus itself.

[FactualFrank]

The Fresh Princess Of Bellends - COVID-19 NHS Rap
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NQqA63rd0k

[NottsClaret]

Hospital deaths down to 429 today. It's a lot of people dying, but it's looking fairly certain we're past the first peak. Time to start seriously thinking how we manage living alongside the virus now.

[Hibsclaret]

I wouldn’t be too sure that we are past any peak. A few of the post weekend figures have shown a drop.

The ONS have released statistics that show there was more than a further 50% more deaths (quoting possible Coronavirus affects) than official Coronavirus death figures up to the first week in April...when you include the reality of deaths in the community (rather than just in hospital). This for me is the biggest issue regarding the daily death figures. We should be comparing total deaths with some previous years averages for the time of year so that we have some idea of the reality of the affect in the community at large.

The spike in overall deaths needs to show a slowdown for us to be past any peak.

[NottsClaret]

Yes, it will go up over the next few days. But it's lower than last Monday. The higher midweek figures aren't going to be up over 900 as they were not long ago. There's nothing wrong in saying we're past the peak, it doesn't lessen the tragedy or mean mistakes aren't being made.

But rather than be overly optimistic or a doom monger, better to just see the trends in the stats and work from that. Admissions are down, cases are levelling off even with increased testing and ICU hasn't come close to being overloaded. It's not going to be now, at least not until 'wave 2' if that should arrive.

[tim_noone]

I liken the drop in figures to Burnley fiddling the gate....I believe neither.

[Lowbankclaret]

Hospital deaths down to 429 today. It's a lot of people dying, but it's looking fairly certain we're past the first peak. Time to start seriously thinking how we manage living alongside the virus now.

Every weekend including Mondays numbers have been lower with number rising on Tuesday onwards.
However having said that it certainly looks like we have hit the plateau which is excellent news.the next two days numbers are fairly key to that being so.

Couple of things that I think need to happen before we can start opening thinks up. Testing needs to be at least 100,000 a day.

Is the care home deaths a truth or a fake news story.

Can we learn from other countries, as I have said many times before. Like Taiwan and Singapore that made masks compulsory.

An old friend contacted me from Singapore a couple of days ago and it’s compulsory there now to wear a mask outside your home. He is a Laboratory geek and he was convinced wearing them reduces the spread.

So the good news is we have hit the plateau , so the lockdown minus is working.

Unfortunately we cannot just go back to normal, if we ever do.

What we need to work out is how do we open up some things without the deaths getting higher again.

[tiger76]

Every weekend including Mondays numbers have been lower with number rising on Tuesday onwards.
However having said that it certainly looks like we have hit the plateau which is excellent news.the next two days numbers are fairly key to that being so.

Couple of things that I think need to happen before we can start opening thinks up. Testing needs to be at least 100,000 a day.

Is the care home deaths a truth or a fake news story.

Can we learn from other countries, as I have said many times before. Like Taiwan and Singapore that made masks compulsory.

An old friend contacted me from Singapore a couple of days ago and it’s compulsory there now to wear a mask outside your home. He is a Laboratory geek and he was convinced wearing them reduces the spread.

So the good news is we have hit the plateau , so the lockdown minus is working.

Unfortunately we cannot just go back to normal, if we ever do.

What we need to work out is how do we open up some things without the deaths getting higher again.

I'd agree with most of that and it's a balanced summary,as you mentioned Singapore these figures are worrying.

Singapore reports sharpest daily spike yet
Singapore has confirmed 1,426 new Covid-19 cases - its biggest daily jump yet.

With just over 8,000 cases, the country has the most number of infections in Southeast Asia, surpassing figures in Indonesia and the Philippines.

Officials said that the majority of the new cases were foreign workers while 16 of the new cases are Singaporeans or those with permanent residency.

Once praised for its success in containing the virus, Singapore is now facing a surge of infections linked to industrial work sites and tightly packed worker dormitories.

Around 300,000 low-wage workers, mostly from South Asia, work in Singapore in construction and maintenance.

The community deaths are the biggest concern,particularly in care homes,it's fine keeping the NHS from being overstretched,but testing and isolating is vital to halt the spread in the care sector.

[Lowbankclaret]

Singapore is now in a more strict lockdown than we are. He sent me a picture of a junction from his flat. Before lockdown he tells me it’s very busy no matter the time of day or night.

83BB15F8-4417-4A88-84AA-8C9254EF35A6.jpeg (681.21 KiB) Viewed 3787 times

[Spijed]

Aim to get 100,000 tests by end of the month yet less than 20,000 were done in the latest figures.

Why promise so many when it's clearly obvious it won't be achievable?

[Lowbankclaret]

Aim to get 100,000 tests by end of the month yet less than 20,000 were done in the latest figures.

Why promise so many when it's clearly obvious it won't be achievable?

The problem for us minions is we don’t have any detail as they don’t tell us, it’s like we are kids

We don’t know if there are 8 new testing centres a couple of days away from completion who can do 10,000 each per day. They just say they are on track.

So I agree with the info we don’t have, we look at it and think they will fail.

Didnt they say it would be 25,000 tests a day a by a couple of weeks ago? Because they didn’t hit that and gave no explanation. Promise credibility becomes an issue.

[evensteadiereddie]

Panic, one assumes, Spijed.
The same reason the daily death toll does not include care home deaths.

[Paul Waine]

Panic, one assumes, Spijed.
The same reason the daily death toll does not include care home deaths.

Surely, eddie, we all understand why the daily stats are hospital deaths only by now?

Of course, if someone can develop a system that can get all the GPs who certify deaths in care homes etc to submit their reports on a 24 hour basis as well then we'd have other figures to look at.

[Spijed]

The problem for us minions is we don’t have any detail as they don’t tell us, it’s like we are kids

We don’t know if there are 8 new testing centres a couple of days away from completion who can do 10,000 each per day. They just say they are on track.

So I agree with the info we don’t have, we look at it and think they will fail.

Didnt they say it would be 25,000 tests a day a by a couple of weeks ago? Because they didn’t hit that and gave no explanation. Promise credibility becomes an issue.

Surely the golden rule is always promise a lower figure than you can actually deliver as that makes you look better.

[evensteadiereddie]

Surely, eddie, we all understand why the daily stats are hospital deaths only by now?

Of course, if someone can develop a system that can get all the GPs who certify deaths in care homes etc to submit their reports on a 24 hour basis as well then we'd have other figures to look at.

It can't be that difficult, surely ? If it is, weekly figures would be a help. Then we can begin to compare like for like.

[bpgburn]

Surely the golden rule is always promise a lower figure than you can actually deliver as that makes you look better.

I seem to remember he went to great pains to explain that the 100,000 tests by the end of the month was an ambitious target to strive for and not a promise.

[Paul Waine]

It can't be that difficult, surely ? If it is, weekly figures would be a help. Then we can begin to compare like for like.

It does appear to be difficult for some to understand, eddie.

We get the daily briefings so that we all know what is happening day-to-day and so we can all follow the development of the curves. It's important for the medical scientists and others to be tracking these figures daily.

And, yes, we are getting weekly figures.

ONS, on 31st March, published following guidance: Deaths relating to the coronavirus (COVID-19)

Public trust and confidence in statistics is a fundamental part of the Code of Practice for Statistics. To ensure this, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are taking steps to provide accurate information on those who, sadly, have died as a result of or diagnosed with COVID-19.

There are two main sources of COVID-19 deaths data:

the daily DHSC COVID-19 deaths data, which are published for the UK at 2pm every day; these data come from NHS England, Public Health Wales, Health Protection Scotland and Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), and this is the most reliable for giving daily reporting for an immediate understanding of the pandemic

ONS weekly death registrations data for England and Wales, which are released every Tuesday at 9:30am and relate to the week that ended 11 days prior (for example, data for the week ending 20 March are released 31 March)

The daily data provide a vital early indication of COVID-19 deaths that occur in hospitals after a positive test. The weekly deaths figures will include all deaths where the registration mentions COVID-19, including those occurring outside of hospitals (for example, in care homes). Weekly figures by registration date roughly follow the daily figures, with a short time lag. This reflects the time between a death taking place and being officially registered.

The ONS publishes weekly provisional deaths data for England and Wales. The figures on COVID-19 deaths are derived from deaths registered in the stated week and include deaths that occurred outside hospital. They are therefore higher than the NHS daily publications. The ONS has also counted all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned by the certifying doctor as “deaths involving COVID-19”.

On 31 March, for reasons of transparency, the ONS is publishing the number of deaths involving COVID-19 that were registered, the number that actually happened according to our knowledge as of 20 March (the cut-off for the weekly deaths release on 31 March), and the number that actually happened if we include all those we knew about on 25 March.

The ONS is speaking with colleagues in the Devolved Administrations to see whether there is public value in bringing together individual nations data to report at a UK or Great Britain level.

The future work of the DHSC and ONS will continue to focus on providing the best statistics to improve our understanding of the COVID-19 death rate both in hospital and beyond.

[Paul Waine]

Aim to get 100,000 tests by end of the month yet less than 20,000 were done in the latest figures.

Why promise so many when it's clearly obvious it won't be achievable?

Times online has an article on testing - published 5pm today. It appears to address some of the questions people have.

Coronavirus testing for bus drivers could help hit 100,000 target

More key workers have been promised coronavirus tests as the government struggles to hit its target of 100,000 a day.

Downing Street suggested bus drivers could be among the next in line for testing and said that it wanted “much broader groups of key workers” to be eligible for checks.

Officials insist that lack of demand not lack of capacity is holding back progress, despite complaints from NHS and care workers about inconvenient swabbing centres hours’ drives away from some who need them.

Most recent figures show that 21,626 tests were carried out in the 24 hours to yesterday morning but the government says labs have capacity for 36,000.

Mass screening of NHS staff without symptoms is also being considered to fill unused testing capacity as leading scientists say that this would protect patients and give a much better understanding of how the virus is spreading.

Home testing kits will be sent to some social care staff this week using Amazon logistics to get swabs back to labs as part of the effort to solve the problem. Mobile testing stations run by the military are also being considered.

On Friday Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that eligibility for testing would be extended beyond NHS and social care staff to the police, fire brigades, prisons, key council workers, the judiciary and benefits office staff.

Today the prime minister’s spokesman said that “the demand from the NHS wasn’t as expected which is why we’ve extended who’s eligible”.

He added: “What we’re doing is rolling out the eligibility criteria so there’s much broader groups of key workers having these tests. We want to see that starting to happen as soon as possible.”

Asked if this could mean more workers such as bus drivers becoming eligible for testing, he said: “Yes. It’s perfectly possible that we could extend the eligibility still further. As I say we have the capacity and want to use it.”

Over the weekend the second of three testing “mega labs” opened at Alderley Park in Cheshire and the final one in Glasgow is due to start processing samples next week. Ministers believe that these, along with NHS and Public Health England labs, will have the capacity to hit the 100,000 a day target. However, they acknowledge a bigger risk of missing the target is failing to get enough samples in to test, either because of lack of demand or logistical problems.

This morning Sir Paul Nurse, director of the Francis Crick Institute, said that the lab side of testing was “largely solved” and the problem now was a logistical one. “The laboratories could deal with it but whether we have the workflow, that is collecting the samples, getting them into the laboratory, looking after the IT issues . . . these are difficult logistical problems,” he told the BBC.

With about a third of those infected with coronavirus showing no symptoms, Sir Paul called for regular checks on frontline staff.

“We are putting into our hospitals our care homes and so on individuals who may be infected but are not being detected because of the present regulations about who should be tested and they in turn will be infecting potentially their colleagues and also vulnerable patients.

“What we need now, today, is regular testing every week of frontline healthcare workers so we can get the data to see how big an issue this is, and so the minister can make a decision about this being rolled out everywhere so we can protect our patients and protect our care workers.”

Mr Hancock has previously said he hoped to be able to start this within weeks as testing capacity increased. Government scientific advisers are also pressing for screening in hospitals and care homes after becoming concerned about the spread of the virus among healthcare workers.

On Friday he told MPs on the health select committee: “One of the further things we’re considering but have not yet been able to take forward is the mass testing of asymptomatic staff within the NHS.”

He said that he was in discussions with hospital chiefs about it and hoped to be able to start “in the coming weeks. This is all determined by capacity in testing”.

[Lowbankclaret]

Surely the golden rule is always promise a lower figure than you can actually deliver as that makes you look better.

I have to say in my experience with manufacturing. The demand is the demand, just get on and meet it. Yes I have missed targets but only by say 10% and that’s normally due to unforeseen issues.

But there was a plan, everyone could see it.

But no don’t give low number, just the one you plan to meet.

[Lowbankclaret]

Could it really be this simply.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... st-do.html

[jrgbfc]

So according to the Guardian the cabinet is split about ending the lockdown. Boris and Matt Hancock are being more cautious while the likes of Gove and Sunak are pushing to end it as soon as possible.
Personally I think if they extend it again they need to start giving the public some more details and a bit of hope or else more and more people will start ignoring the restrictions.

[Lowbankclaret]

I was of the opinion that our light lockdown would not get us to the plateau soon enough or keep deaths down low enough.

I was wrong, it has slowed it to a plateau. Which is good news.

Perhaps some simple actions like what Taiwan did can mean we can back to a kinda normal.

[Zlatan]

Could it really be this simply.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... st-do.html

As stated on page 1 of this thread...

face masks are not intended to protect the wearer, they are intended to prevent the wearer spreading germs - i.e. they prevent the spread not protect the wearer.

It is really that simple.

[Lowbankclaret]

I was of the opinion that our light lockdown would not get us to the plateau soon enough or keep deaths down low enough.

I was wrong, it has slowed it to a plateau. Which is good news.

Perhaps some simple actions like what Taiwan did can mean we can back to a kinda normal.

[Lowbankclaret]

As stated on page 1 of this thread...



It is really that simple.

No way am I getting into a he said she said.

I think it was you said a stuck clock is right twice a day.

[FactualFrank]

Millions of pieces of PPE are being shipped from Britain to Europe despite NHS shortages.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... e-despite/


Spot the brain cell.

[Zlatan]

No way am I getting into a he said she said.

I think it was you said a stuck clock is right twice a day.

I was agreeing with you, and demonstrated with a reference to a previous post

[tiger76]

Millions of pieces of PPE are being shipped from Britain to Europe despite NHS shortages.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... e-despite/


Spot the brain cell.

If this turns out to true,this is damning,but you can't blame the firms,how can the government possibly justify this lack of inaction

On Monday night, UK firms said they had “no choice” but to keep selling the lifesaving gear abroad because their offers of help had been repeatedly ignored by the Government.

[NewClaret]

I was of the opinion that our light lockdown would not get us to the plateau soon enough or keep deaths down low enough.

I was wrong, it has slowed it to a plateau. Which is good news.

Perhaps some simple actions like what Taiwan did can mean we can back to a kinda normal.

Agreed. I thought we’d rue the lockdown light and should’ve been stricter. There’s time yet, but looking a good call by the Government so far (although we’ll never know whether we’d have plateaued sooner with a stricter lockdown).

[mdd2]

Even more interesting is the fact that a GP thinks the evidence points to the peak occurring about 4 weeks ago just before the lockdown and that the earlier social distancing and hand washing had a bigger effect on the viral spread than the lockdown. He wants decisions made about loosening lockdown by Friday as by then it will be clear we have got this under control.
Like many others he is worried about the reduced activity at GP's and A&E where non-covid workload is down by 25-40% meaning people are not having heart attacks, strokes treated and cancers not being picked up by people not seeking help.
No one seems to think that a lot of what GPs and A&E departments see is non-illness and harmless to the individual which must be part of the absent attendances. I mean an A/E department seeing 150 instead of 200 people per day cannot normally be seeing 50 with heart attacks and strokes.
March 2020 saw about 600,000 fewer A&E attendances than in March 2019- there are about 200,000 heart attacks and strokes/annum; a fall in attendances that was widely predicted by those who work A&E and as Stan would say "a blind man on a galloping horse would see why"
Of interest was the sudden drop in people being admitted with suspected heart attacks in Scotland when no-smoking inside public places started and England followed later. Given the drop in atmospheric pollution these last few weeks it will be of interest to see if the heart attack rate has fallen again as well as admissions with non-Covid chest problems

[dsr]

Even more interesting is the fact that a GP thinks the evidence points to the peak occurring about 4 weeks ago just before the lockdown and that the earlier social distancing and hand washing had a bigger effect on the viral spread than the lockdown. He wants decisions made about loosening lockdown by Friday as by then it will be clear we have got this under control.
Like many others he is worried about the reduced activity at GP's and A&E where non-covid workload is down by 25-40% meaning people are not having heart attacks, strokes treated and cancers not being picked up by people not seeking help.
No one seems to think that a lot of what GPs and A&E departments see is non-illness and harmless to the individual which must be part of the absent attendances. I mean an A/E department seeing 150 instead of 200 people per day cannot normally be seeing 50 with heart attacks and strokes.
March 2020 saw about 600,000 fewer A&E attendances than in March 2019- there are about 200,000 heart attacks and strokes/annum; a fall in attendances that was widely predicted by those who work A&E and as Stan would say "a blind man on a galloping horse would see why"
Of interest was the sudden drop in people being admitted with suspected heart attacks in Scotland when no-smoking inside public places started and England followed later. Given the drop in atmospheric pollution these last few weeks it will be of interest to see if the heart attack rate has fallen again as well as admissions with non-Covid chest problems

How many people with trivial illnesses go to A&E knowing they have trivial illnesses? That's the problem. If everyone in the Uk was a qualified medical professional, they would mostly know whether they need to see a doctor or not. But those who are not medical professionals have a choice between waiting days (or even weeks) to see a doctor, or else going to A&E.

I went to A&E with a trivial illness that we are told not to go with - stomach ache. I was on a drip within an hour and in hospital 9 days.

[Devils_Advocate]

Well if one GP thinks this it must be true. Why are we bothering with all these experts and politicians to make decisions when mdd2 could just wheel out his GP and sort out this mess once and for all

Whats his football knowledge like cos if England struggle we could sack off Southgate and get him in charge?