Covid-19

[Colburn_Claret]

That's what the scientists must believe because now we're effectively hiding from it and hoping some kind of scientific response allows to come out from behind our sofas.

That's not the way I read it at all. They aren't waiting for some new scientific response, they are going with what they have and know.
I see it as the government and advisors, want this to spread, but in a controllable way, at a speed that the NHS can deal with. Too many contracting it at once and the NHS would be swamped, and lives lost. Not enough people contracted it and it will hang around a lot longer, and lives will be lost (shielding the most vulnerable will be difficult enough on a short term basis, but keeping them isolated for long term basis brings more problems). The question was always when do you get to the point where you say enough people have contracted it. I don't envy the boffins that, and the government can only rely on the boffins, and the boffins will disagree just as we do. An impossible, unenviable position, but someone has to do it.

[FactualFrank]

I see it as the government and advisors, want this to spread, but in a controllable way, at a speed that the NHS can deal with. Too many contracting it at once and the NHS would be swamped, and lives lost. Not enough people contracted it and it will hang around a lot longer, and lives will be lost

I see it like this, too.

[thatdberight]

That's not the way I read it at all. They aren't waiting for some new scientific response, they are going with what they have and know.
I see it as the government and advisors, want this to spread, but in a controllable way, at a speed that the NHS can deal with. Too many contracting it at once and the NHS would be swamped, and lives lost. Not enough people contracted it and it will hang around a lot longer, and lives will be lost (shielding the most vulnerable will be difficult enough on a short term basis, but keeping them isolated for long term basis brings more problems). The question was always when do you get to the point where you say enough people have contracted it. I don't envy the boffins that, and the government can only rely on the boffins, and the boffins will disagree just as we do. An impossible, unenviable position, but someone has to do it.

Fair enough. Perhaps the modelling shows that even through the limited contacts envisaged (plus people who can't be bothered adhering to the guidance) they still get that constant flow of cases.

The medical scientists can only do their best and of course everybody hopes they can crack it.

The people sitting with "spreadsheets" changing variables and seeing another 100,000 deaths against earlier economic recovery or some other positive; that's an unenviable kind of decision making to be involved in.

[Jakubclaret]

From the very start of this thread, page 1, where you said 600 people a year in the UK died of flu and I tried to tell you it was 17,000 average (with sources) which is the the sort of number we now all know, that's been the level of dialogue we've been having. I'd best leave it.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu
That's the number I provided based on the information.

[thatdberight]

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu
That's the number I provided based on the information.

I know. You said at the time.

[Jakubclaret]

I know. You said at the time.

I did, but you are the only 1 querying & doubting the information.

[Jakubclaret]

On average 600 people are estimated to die in the UK every year from the complications of flu. You seem to be doubting the figures, near enough every link researched into that is stating???

[Lowbankclaret]

Why just Italy ? Why not Holland or Belgium ?

Italy are further forward down this process than we are.

Holland and Belgium are in a similar position to us.

[dsr]

On average 600 people are estimated to die in the UK every year from the complications of flu. You seem to be doubting the figures, near enough every link researched into that is stating???

On the other hand, 90,000 die each year with flu or pneumonia on their death certificate. It's not that they died of flu or pneumonia per se, just that they had other conditions and flu contributed to helping them on their way.

[thatdberight]

On average 600 people are estimated to die in the UK every year from the complications of flu. You seem to be doubting the figures, near enough every link researched into that is stating???

I'm working today but if you're genuinely interested in us bottoming what seems now a rather trivial and arcane point, I'll pick up with you later.

[Spijed]

On the other hand, 90,000 die each year with flu or pneumonia on their death certificate. It's not that they died of flu or pneumonia per se, just that they had other conditions and flu contributed to helping them on their way.

DSR, on a side note, hope your mum ok.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

Good news folks.

Pubs, clubs, theatres, cinemas and restaurants won't actually be able to claim insurance even if the government forces them to close...

An ABI spokesperson says:

“Irrespective of whether or not the Government order closure of a business, the vast majority of firms won’t have purchased cover that will enable them to claim on their insurance to compensate for their business being closed by the Coronavirus.

“Standard business interruption cover – the type the majority of businesses purchase - does not include forced closure by authorities as it is intended to respond to physical damage at the property which results in the business being unable to continue to trade

“A small minority of typically larger firms might have purchased an extension to their cover for closure due to any infectious disease. In this instance an enforced closure could help them make the claim, but this will depend on the precise nature of the cover they have purchased so they should check with their insurer or broker to see if they are covered.”

Phew, don't worry. We can all live without pubs, clubs, theatres, cinemas and restaurants as long as we have insurance companies that don't actually pay out any insurance.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

More good news...

"Capital Economics: UK GDP could fall 15% next quarter
Capital Economics have predicted that the UK economy could shrink by around 15% in the next three months, as Covid-19 triggers a “big recession”.

That would be a staggering drop in economic activity, inflicting real pain on millions of people.

For comparison, the UK shrank by 6% during and after the 2008 financial crisis -- and that was spread across more than a year.

In a new research note, chief economist Paul Dales says:

By asking the public to work from home where possible and to avoid pubs, theatres and other social venues, the UK government has implemented measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus that will significantly reduce economic activity. Lots of business activity will continue in some form, but lots won’t. Hiring and investment decisions will be put on ice or cancelled. Households won’t spend much on non-essential items.

With the peak of the virus yet to come, it is clear we are in the early days of a big recession. As such, our previous forecast that GDP would fall by 2.5% q/q in Q2 is no longer fit for purpose.

With large parts of the economy at a standstill - GDP could fall by between 10% and 20%, they believe (thus a 15% ‘split the difference’ estimate)

Faced with such an economic calamity, Capital Economics predict the government will need to act as a backstop for banks and other sectors to prevent a deeper and longer-lasting recession."

[dsr]

DSR, on a side note, hope your mum ok.

Thanks, she's doing well.

[Gordaleman]

The subject of Flu death seems to irritate some people on this board and it has to be said that accurate figures are hard to find, but the WHO's figures of between 290,000 and 650,000 annually seems hard to refute.

In Britain, trying to make sence of NHS figures means trawling through pages and pages of reports, so accuracy is hard to find.

However, this Daily Telegraph report says that as recently as the 2017 / 18 season, some 15,000 died of Flu in Britain alone and it's likely that most people on this thread didn't know anything about it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/1 ... effective/

Edit: Meanwhile Sean Dyche has been named the Premier League Manager of the Month for February.

[thatdberight]

Good news folks.

Pubs, clubs, theatres, cinemas and restaurants won't actually be able to claim insurance even if the government forces them to close...

An ABI spokesperson says:

“Irrespective of whether or not the Government order closure of a business, the vast majority of firms won’t have purchased cover that will enable them to claim on their insurance to compensate for their business being closed by the Coronavirus.

“Standard business interruption cover – the type the majority of businesses purchase - does not include forced closure by authorities as it is intended to respond to physical damage at the property which results in the business being unable to continue to trade

“A small minority of typically larger firms might have purchased an extension to their cover for closure due to any infectious disease. In this instance an enforced closure could help them make the claim, but this will depend on the precise nature of the cover they have purchased so they should check with their insurer or broker to see if they are covered.”

Phew, don't worry. We can all live without pubs, clubs, theatres, cinemas and restaurants as long as we have insurance companies that don't actually pay out any insurance.

So, as previously discussed, we'll all have to pick up the pain as a country because no other solution is feasible.

What will need to happen is done sort of redistribution of wealth to those hit by unemployment. And that should be easy to do if people haven't got many options for their disposable income. Really high rates of tax on high earners (and I don't mean just the millionaires - although theirs should be even more swingeing). Or maybe it gets done by taxation afterwards. But it'll be needed.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

That's not the way I read it at all. They aren't waiting for some new scientific response, they are going with what they have and know.
I see it as the government and advisors, want this to spread, but in a controllable way, at a speed that the NHS can deal with. Too many contracting it at once and the NHS would be swamped, and lives lost. Not enough people contracted it and it will hang around a lot longer, and lives will be lost (shielding the most vulnerable will be difficult enough on a short term basis, but keeping them isolated for long term basis brings more problems). The question was always when do you get to the point where you say enough people have contracted it. I don't envy the boffins that, and the government can only rely on the boffins, and the boffins will disagree just as we do. An impossible, unenviable position, but someone has to do it.

Don't forget you'll need to backtrack on that as soon as Boris does which will be any minute now.

[thatdberight]

The subject of Flu death seems to irritate some people on this board and it has to be said that accurate figures are hard to find, but the WHO's figures of between 290,000 and 650,000 annually seems hard to refute.

In Britain, trying to make sence of NHS figures means trawling through pages and pages of reports, so accuracy is hard to find.

However, this Daily Telegraph report says that as recently as the 2017 / 18 season, some 15,000 died of Flu in Britain alone and it's likely that most people on this thread didn't know anything about it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/1 ... effective/

Those are the sort of numbers usually quoted. I've not found it but would guess the much lower number is genuine but may? reflect people who die purely from flu. Don't know. Just trying to make sense of the 600 figures. Since were quoting numbers for coronavirus that are mostly people who had other conditions, it makes sense to compare like with like otherwise we drastically overstate coronavirus' fatality rate in comparison.

[Gordaleman]

Those are the sort of numbers usually quoted. I've not found it but would guess the much lower number is genuine but may? reflect people who die purely from flu. Don't know. Just trying to make sense of the 600 figures. Since were quoting numbers for coronavirus that are mostly people who had other conditions, it makes sense to compare like with like otherwise we drastically overstate coronavirus' fatality rate in comparison.

The 600 figure totally baffled me. I don't know where they got that from but it surely can't be accurate? If you go back to a time before regular vaccination, the figures must have been far higher than they are now and they are still very high, even now.

[KateR]

Does it really matter how many flu kills in a year, I mean really does it, will it help you sleep better, will it solve Covid-19 problems, what about road deaths per year, plenty of other killers out there we have to deal with in the world, think yourselves fortunate you live where you do, India and Africa will have huge issues do to there poor heath facilities. Yet so many here trying to score points in regard to Tories, austerity and BJ in particular, I think it is absolutely pathetic and you should be ashamed of yourselves and you know who you are!

If you lose a loved one, close family member, mother/father, son/daughter for example to flu, car accident it hurts just as much, this virus has and will kill more, people who are members of someone's close knit family unit, there is not a lot we can do as individuals but doing sensible things such as avoiding large crowds whether the tube/train or a concert or just your local is absolute common sense. Did you really need to wait for the Gov. to tell you this, does the West End and restaurant chains really need to have the Gov. tell them this, even the PL/Football leagues made the decisions to close and lose revenue without the Gov. telling them to. So the West End, Carluccios and other social gathering places put profits before health, but people knew from other countries, continual advise says distance yourself, isolate if symptoms, but it's easier to just go about normal business and then blame BJ & the Gov. isn't it because you can't think for yourself, sheep, bahh, bahh.

Be safe, be polite to each other, think before you do something that might put you in harms way, like looking both ways before you cross the road, wash your hands thoroughly if you touch surfaces you don't have control of.

Most important of all remember this is getting worse before it gets better, yet I will predict it will get better but let's try to get through it together until then, offer advise, don't blame, don't score points, some live close to others relatively, offer to help if needed, but most of all good luck to everyone, yet make your own luck.

we can go back to political point scoring later and hopefully laughing together at some common foe.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

So, as previously discussed, we'll all have to pick up the pain as a country because no other solution is feasible.

What will need to happen is done sort of redistribution of wealth to those hit by unemployment. And that should be easy to do if people haven't got many options for their disposable income. Really high rates of tax on high earners (and I don't mean just the millionaires - although theirs should be even more swingeing). Or maybe it gets done by taxation afterwards. But it'll be needed.

The chances of that happening are actually less than zero.

[claretonthecoast1882]

The chances of that happening are actually less than zero.

The same chance then of brexit happening ? Probably best you ease off the predictions

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

Does it really matter how many flu kills in a year?

On this board, for some weird reason, yes.

God only knows why, it has nothing to do with this. It only started because it can have flu-like symptoms, if it had HIV/Cancer-like symptoms would people would be comparing it to them?

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

The same chance then of brexit happening ? Probably best you ease off the predictions

Probably best you leave this thread if you want to talk about Brexit.

[KateR]

The chances of that happening are actually less than zero.

to be pedantic, you can not have a chance less than zero, just my opinion of course.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

to be pedantic, you can not have a chance less than zero, just my opinion of course.

It's a figure of speech
But you were right the first time, it isn't just your opinion, it's fact so yes, you were being pedantic (and patronising).

[Gordaleman]

Later today, the Chancellor is supposed to be joining the PM for today's update statement. No doubt, he will be announcing billions of pounds of 'Quantative easing' as per the 2008 financial crisis. Not sure what it will do for the man in the street, but it will certainly enrich the bankers again.

[ClaretAndJew]

The Tories are there to make the bankers rich. That's all they have ever been for. They are for the small percentage. Not us.

[KateR]

so that's two who just couldn't help themselves, they couldn't wait for the man to actually speak, ohhh know I have some sharpened knives and I am going to use them now. You're pathetic

Did the budget not set aside 30 Billion for specific usage regarding the virus, or did you conveniently forget that?

[FactualFrank]

A bloke on a tractor has just driven by, shouting "The end of the world is nigh!!"

I think it was Farmer Geddon.

[Gordaleman]

so that's two who just couldn't help themselves, they couldn't wait for the man to actually speak, ohhh know I have some sharpened knives and I am going to use them now. You're pathetic

Did the budget not set aside 30 Billion for specific usage regarding the virus, or did you conveniently forget that?

To protect the economy from Covid-19, Sunak said £2bn would be allocated to cover up to 2m firms employing fewer than 250 employees that lose out because staff are off sick.

A series of cheap loans would also be on offer while smaller firms in some of the hardest-hit industries, including retailers and museums, would not have to pay business rates – a tax cut worth £1bn.

A further £1bn would cover compensation for people on benefits who become sick.



The rest will go to the banks in the form of quantative easing which only ever benefits bankers. And although he may give a little more aid to the man in the street this afternoon, again most of it will be quantative easing to help the bankers.

[Mala591]

Probably best you leave this thread if you want to talk about Brexit.

What is Brexit

[Lowbankclaret]

People,
It has become increasingly apparent of the last 48 hours we need to pause normal society.

Normal rules cannot apply now.

Businesses need to be put on effective hold.
Everything except essential companies need to be almost put into mothballs to be re opened once this crisis is over.

If we don’t there will economic catastrophe.

Most businesses would not survive.

How we do that I don’t know, but it is what we need to do.

[thatdberight]

People,
It has become increasingly apparent of the last 48 hours we need to pause normal society.

Normal rules cannot apply now.

Businesses need to be put on effective hold.
Everything except essential companies need to be almost put into mothballs to be re opened once this crisis is over.

If we don’t there will economic catastrophe.

Most businesses would not survive.

How we do that I don’t know, but it is what we need to do.

That sounds like a suggestion to avoid economic catastrophe is to stop economic activity. I can't see that - the very opposite in fact. I think the way to avoid economic catastrophe would be to get about our normal business and let 500,000 people in this country die.

Whether that's acceptable is a moral judgement.

[Lowbankclaret]

Watching the select committee on health where the Gov expert is being questioned.

He is supposed to be THE expert.

He says the average who does of flu each year is around 8,000.

Before they changed the advice yesterday they realised the number death could be 250,000.

With the new measures they are hoping to keep it below 20,000.

But he didn’t sound to convinced it would keep below that figure.

[Lowbankclaret]

That sounds like a suggestion to avoid economic catastrophe is to stop economic activity. I can't see that - the very opposite in fact. I think the way to avoid economic catastrophe would be to get about our normal business and let 500,000 people in this country die.

Whether that's acceptable is a moral judgement.

Seriously,

Well stopping it is what we are doing, is it not!

[Spijed]

That sounds like a suggestion to avoid economic catastrophe is to stop economic activity. I can't see that - the very opposite in fact. I think the way to avoid economic catastrophe would be to get about our normal business and let 500,000 people in this country die.

Whether that's acceptable is a moral judgement.

As more people pass away, more and more are likely to self isolate, though sheer panic and fear, so it's unlikely even the most fearless person would be walking round the streets and going about their normal business.

[Spijed]

Watching the select committee on health where the Gov expert is being questioned.

He is supposed to be THE expert.

He says the average who does of flu each year is around 8,000.

Before they changed the advice yesterday they realised the number death could be 250,000.

With the new measures they are hoping to keep it below 20,000.

But he didn’t sound to convinced it would keep below that figure.

Lowbank,

Hopefully within 3-4 weeks the treatments such as Chloroquine will be widely available. Chloroquine can be produced in enormous quantities so there shouldn't be an issue with shortage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

[FactualFrank]

As more people pass away, more and more are likely to self isolate, though sheer panic and fear, so it's unlikely even the most fearless person would be walking round the streets and going about their normal business.

Time will tell.

As more people self-isolate, it means people who don't self-isolate will be further apart from other people when they walk down the street.

So you won't get everybody staying indoors all day.

[NottsClaret]

This whole thing has really hammered home just how poor humans are at making judgements around risk and understanding relatively simple maths.

[Gordaleman]

Lowbank,

Hopefully within 3-4 weeks the treatments such as Chloroquine will be widely available. Chloroquine can be produced in enormous quantities so there shouldn't be an issue with shortage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

Quote from the above article.

Although the treatment had been effective in a smattering of cases, there hasn't been any controlled testing like what would be needed to test a new drug, Professor Paterson said.

A smattering of cases. I don't think that's something we can rely on too heavily. I'll stick to Gin and Tonic with the tonic having quinine in it.

[Spijed]

Quote from the above article.

Although the treatment had been effective in a smattering of cases, there hasn't been any controlled testing like what would be needed to test a new drug, Professor Paterson said.

A smattering of cases. I don't think that's something we can rely on too heavily. I'll stick to Gin and Tonic with the tonic having quinine in it.

The thing is with Chloroquine they know the side effects - very very few (and it's cheap as chips to produce in vast quantities), so there shouldn't be any serious risk to giving it to people in trials on a bigger scale, which is what we might see happen.

[Gordaleman]

This whole thing has really hammered home just how poor humans are at making judgements around risk and understanding relatively simple maths.

It also shows just how vulnerable we are to nature as well. Sooner or later, some sort of pathogen will undoubably wipe us all out. Then the Earth can get back to normality without humans ruining the place.

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbank,

Hopefully within 3-4 weeks the treatments such as Chloroquine will be widely available. Chloroquine can be produced in enormous quantities so there shouldn't be an issue with shortage.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

Yes I posted an article a few days about a couple of drugs that appear to work.
I think Zlatan also linked it a day or so later.

Fingers crossed it works

[Spijed]

Yes I posted an article a few days about a couple of drugs that appear to work.
I think Zlatan also linked it a day or so later.

Fingers crossed it works

As my post above they can easily start giving it to seriously ill patients if the ICU's are over flowing. Nothing to lose, and a vast amount to gain.

There is only one big downside to anti-malarial drugs! - the bitterness is about x 1000 worse in bitterness than you imagine!

[JarrowClaret]

I understand the concerns around shops pubs etc but surely we have to look at the bigger picture rather than the financial side. What else should the Government do apart from stopping people going to small confined spaces? When it comes to insurance and payouts what insurance company in the world will be able to payout for the amount of businesses that will be closed? We will get more of an idea what the Government response to the financial hole this is going to cause maybe there will be some sort of interest free loan or grant for people and businesses.

[Gerry Hattrick]

1/ Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:49 am
On average 600 people are estimated to die in the UK every year from the complications of flu. You seem to be doubting the figures, near enough every link researched into that is stating???

2/ Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:19 pm
The subject of Flu death seems to irritate some people on this board and it has to be said that accurate figures are hard to find ………..
In Britain, trying to make sence of NHS figures means trawling through pages and pages of reports, so accuracy is hard to find. …………..

Re post 1/ Not true.

Re post2/

Perhaps hard to find but they’re there.
Obviously there can only be projected/guesstimated type figures for the Covid19 virus, but every year Public Health England do a report on:- “Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK” Their last one was for winter 2018 to 2019.
This report makes reference to and comparison with activity and figures from earlier years..

Rather surprising figures there eh? And they’re just for England, not the whole of the UK.

The report can be found at:-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
Not the sort of thing I’d normally even glance at but in the present circumstances I found it interesting. And I’m pretty sure that based on recognised algorithmsthe figures won’t be far out.

[Spijed]

"Infection rates in UK should come down in 2-3 weeks - UK government adviser
Sir Patrick Vallance
HoCCopyright: HoC
The UK government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance is appearing at the House of Common's health committee.

He tells MPs that the UK should start to see rates of infection come down in two to three weeks.

He says it would be "a good outcome" if the number of coronavirus-related deaths in the UK can be kept to below 20,000.

[Gordaleman]

1/ Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:49 am
On average 600 people are estimated to die in the UK every year from the complications of flu. You seem to be doubting the figures, near enough every link researched into that is stating???

2/ Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:19 pm
The subject of Flu death seems to irritate some people on this board and it has to be said that accurate figures are hard to find ………..
In Britain, trying to make sence of NHS figures means trawling through pages and pages of reports, so accuracy is hard to find. …………..

Re post 1/ Not true.

Re post2/

Perhaps hard to find but they’re there.
Obviously there can only be projected/guesstimated type figures for the Covid19 virus, but every year Public Health England do a report on:- “Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK” Their last one was for winter 2018 to 2019.
This report makes reference to and comparison with activity and figures from earlier years..

Rather surprising figures there eh? And they’re just for England, not the whole of the UK.

The report can be found at:-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf
Not the sort of thing I’d normally even glance at but in the present circumstances I found it interesting. And I’m pretty sure that based on recognised algorithmsthe figures won’t be far out.

Strange isn't it, that with figures like those, the media doesn't decide to get people panicking every single year?

Yes, Covid 19 is very serious but as yet, it's killed a mere fraction of the numbers that Flu does. The thing is, the world is used to Flu and has become complacent about it. Covid-19 is something new for the world to get scared about.

[NottsClaret]

Covid-19 is something new for the world to get scared about.

Probably an element of truth in that. Obviously the number crunchers see the danger in the stats but for everyone else there is that bit of the fear of the unknown.

In a couple of weeks, everyone will know someone who's had it and survived, so even though the death toll will be way higher, people will probably feel a bit more relaxed. At the moment, one mention on Twitter of somebody dying in Bologna and they're legging it back to Tesco for more bog roll and porridge.

Honestly, if the BBC news site reported every time someone in the world was struck by lightning it would soon become a national crisis in our emotional little heads.