https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51398039
Starting to get serious, I urge any fellow clarets if you start feeling ill & you've recently visited the countries mentioned in the link, follow the advice.

My daughter en route to Phuket for a cruise round Far East. Amazed they are allowing ship to sail No refunds offered so either risk catching the virus or lose your money. She and many others were put in a corner. They have your cash well in advance

FCBurnley wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:58 am

My daughter en route to Phuket for a cruise round Far East. Amazed they are allowing ship to sail No refunds offered so either risk catching the virus or lose your money. She and many others were put in a corner. They have your cash well in advance

It's not good & set to get worse I think if people aren't careful, anyhow I hope the journey is safe for her, I thought I'd post the link to just increase awareness, I've no idea of how dangerous & how contagious the virus is, so I'm going to do some research as I normally do.

A mate if mine works for a major airline and has just been shipped back from Thailand, very serious indeed

I have been here in the Philippines since last November with my Fiancee and Daughter and have recently purchased face masks for the 3 of us

I know that the Philippines aren't on that list but there has already been one death of a Filipino and a few others from here having the virus

Masks here are in short supply with pharmacies not knowing when they are getting more in stock

Our large shopping mall have a notice in their entrance asking shoppers to wear masks inside there whenever possible

Very few places have stocks of face masks here but the government advice is to only to wear if you are ill and that hand washing and other general good hygiene practices are as equally important.

I remember when you could get Corona , in any bright colour, delivered to your door

mkmel wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:49 am

I have been here in the Philippines since last November with my Fiancee and Daughter and have recently purchased face masks for the 3 of us

I know that the Philippines aren't on that list but there has already been one death of a Filipino and a few others from here having the virus

Masks here are in short supply with pharmacies not knowing when they are getting more in stock

Our large shopping mall have a notice in their entrance asking shoppers to wear masks inside there whenever possible

Does the face mask cover your eyes? Otherwise not much use

Inchy wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:36 am

Does the face mask cover your eyes? Otherwise not much use

Very little use, if it was to be of any use it would need to be changed very frequently as there sweat I read.

face masks are not intended to protect the wearer, they are intended to prevent the wearer spreading germs - i.e. they prevent the spread not protect the wearer.

Coronavirus is no more dangerous as a virus than your everyday influenza virus; the distinction is that we have known treatments and vaccines for influenza and as a populace we have a degree of resistance to influenza.

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:03 am

face masks are not intended to protect the wearer, they are intended to prevent the wearer spreading germs - i.e. they prevent the spread not protect the wearer.

Coronavirus is no more dangerous as a virus than your everyday influenza virus; the distinction is that we have known treatments and vaccines for influenza and as a populace we have a degree of resistance to influenza.

True, but the flu in the UK kills 600 people per year by complications & as you say that's something we are prepared for, if this thing kicks off big time we are in the brown stuff big time, it only takes a handful of people spreading it.

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:20 am

True, but the flu in the UK kills 600 people per year by complications & as you say that's something we are prepared for, if this thing kicks off big time we are in the brown stuff big time, it only takes a handful of people spreading it.

Agreed. What worries me though is misinformation about things like this and especially the use of face masks by perfectly healthy people which will stop those who need a mask from having one due to shortages in supply. I see so many Chinese people wearing face masks on a daily basis and it boils my p!ss because they are contributing to the problem from misinformation - idiots, the lot of them (not the Chinese, those who wear a face mask without reason).

Normal hygiene prevention can prevent the spread of all viruses - regular hand washing; cleaning door handles; cover mouth when coughing etc - why cant we educate people with this relevant information...? I'll tell you why, the media would rather "spread" misinformation about face masks because its a bigger story when there's mass panic (I have seen snippets of info about good hygiene but nothing compared to the mass hysteria in the press)

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:27 am

Agreed. What worries me though is misinformation about things like this and especially the use of face masks by perfectly healthy people which will stop those who need a mask from having one due to shortages in supply. I see so many Chinese people wearing face masks on a daily basis and it boils my p!ss because they are contributing to the problem from misinformation - idiots, the lot of them (not the Chinese, those who wear a face mask without reason).

Normal hygiene prevention can prevent the spread of all viruses - regular hand washing; cleaning door handles; cover mouth when coughing etc - why cant we educate people with this relevant information...? I'll tell you why, the media would rather "spread" misinformation about face masks because its a bigger story when there's mass panic (I have seen snippets of info about good hygiene but nothing compared to the mass hysteria in the press)

I believe the virus as got a incubation period of 14 days so at the moment people arriving back from wuhan automatically go in quarantine somewhere in Wirral, another influx go in Sunday or fly back then, more information needs to be made available, there's nothing stopping somebody coming back into the UK from 1 of the country's & unknowingly thinking they've got a common cold & behaving normally within the uk, mixing with other people shopping ect, it'd probably be government policy soon if not already to pick them off at the airports when landing you would have thought.

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:27 am

I see so many Chinese people wearing face masks on a daily basis and it boils my p!ss because they are contributing to the problem from misinformation - idiots, the lot of them (not the Chinese, those who wear a face mask without reason).

I believe the Chinese Government has ordered people to wear masks, and in parts of China where the virus is present in large numbers it might be the sensible option. As mentioned above masks help stop people with the virus spreading by catching their fluids.

In Japan I think it's quite common for people with colds to wear them as it's seen as polite, not wanting to spread it to others.

The danger though as you allude to is a false sense of security.

I'm in Shanghai and it nice and quiet with people staying inside and there's still a lot of people out of town from the Chinese New Year. You have to wear a face mask when on the Metro, and other forms of public transport as well as the bus. Things are under control in the city (don't think they ever were not) and as Zlatan states, the western media are trying to whip things up a little.

The (possible) worry will come when people eventually return home after an extended CNY although it seems if you are not returning from Hubei province, then you'll be reyt.

Not scary enough for me. A bit of rebranded flu.. just take a couple of Lemsips and get to bed early, you'll be right.

It needs to be something like the Ebola virus, bleeding out your eyeballs and all that to make me twitchy.

Got about 30 masks left here from last year here but they don't do much good according to the scientists. I usually wear one for my allergies. Looks like it's going to spread in Nihon, so time to eat some Natto, kimchi and hope for the best. UTC!

The doctor who brought the virus to the attention of the authorities has died of it. He was 34 and was villified by the police for scaremongering.
Was he murdered though ?

OK, I don't want to add to anyone's sense of panic.

I was supposed to have 2 calls with colleagues in Singapore this morning - both cancelled, because "other things" needed attention.

Singapore Ministry of Health has raised "Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) to Orange. (No, I've no idea what this is/means).

Supermarkets etc - all the shelves being emptied as people stock up on supplies - according to the photos I've been sent.

Seems my Singapore colleagues are implementing "work from home" policies and reminding everyone of the 14 day isolation policy if they've recently visited China etc etc.

I think we all know that the 3rd UK coronavirus case is a guy who has recently returned from Singapore.

Let's be careful out there.

Why would he be murdered?

Seems that panic buying has taken place in Singapore and Hong Kong. Supermarket in Shanghai was business as usual earlier today. Different levels of risk perception I guess.

As far as I am aware when the time comes for me to leave the Phillipines the only way I can return to England will be via Singapore or Hong Kong

Will see how things develop before deciding whether it is better to stay in the Philippines for longer than anticipated or to bite the bullet and return to England via HK or Singapore

Next Friday I’m travelling to nz via Singapore to visit my family. My brother was lecturing on the cruise ship just over three weeks ago for a week, the one that’s now had 60+ cases on board.

My work colleagues can’t wait for me to get back!

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:20 am

True, but the flu in the UK kills 600 people per year by complications & as you say that's something we are prepared for, if this thing kicks off big time we are in the brown stuff big time, it only takes a handful of people spreading it.

17,000 on average not 600.

One of my biggest customers does almost all of its business in China. With them In London next week. It’s been nice knowing you all.

thatdberight wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:47 pm

17,000 on average not 600.

The information is from WHO so they need to be consulting your source & updating there information. The figure is for the UK.

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:38 pm

The information is from WHO so they need to be consulting your source & updating there information. The figure is for the UK.

I believe there are two different stats here. Those killed by the viral infection (600) and those killed by the infection and where the infection was a factor in exacerbating already-existing conditions (Average 17,000 / annum over 5 years):
"The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season. The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually." (Public Health England)

Since the stats for the current outbreak are all those who have died with the virus (and it's been regularly mentioned that it has mainly been those with pre-existing risks or conditions) it's sensible, I think, to compare the 17,000 figure.

Of course if we all get it in the UK and it's c.1.4million deaths, we'd look silly arguing over whether it was 1,399,400 or 1,383,000 extra deaths.

thatdberight wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:35 pm

Of course if we all get it in the UK and it's c.1.4million deaths, we'd look silly arguing over whether it was 1,399,400 or 1,383,000 extra deaths.

Spanish flu (per historic-uk.com) killed 228,000, and that was following a major war, when the public were underfed, and there were no antibiotics for the pneumonia. We'd not expect 1.4m deaths.

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:03 am

face masks are not intended to protect the wearer, they are intended to prevent the wearer spreading germs - i.e. they prevent the spread not protect the wearer.

Coronavirus is no more dangerous as a virus than your everyday influenza virus; the distinction is that we have known treatments and vaccines for influenza and as a populace we have a degree of resistance to influenza.

I think you are perhaps not in possession of all the facts.

You also need to look through the propaganda of the gov, trying to stop a panic.

Currently if you look at the percentages of people who have either died or recovered.

26% have died, 74% have recovered. Not exactly flu like numbers, Now the died percentage should drop over time.

However 15% of people currently infected are in a critical condition.

The Chinese have admitted anyone who dies who haven’t been tested will not be tested and hence will never appear in the figures.

What you also need to remember is the lag in the figures of the 14 days it takes to show symptoms.

The R zero number is currently 3-4 which means the spread will still be exponential.

Anyone who thinks this is not serious is not grasping the situation.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

dsr wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:58 pm

Spanish flu (per historic-uk.com) killed 228,000, and that was following a major war, when the public were underfed, and there were no antibiotics for the pneumonia. We'd not expect 1.4m deaths.

I don't think so either - I was just extrapolating population X observed mortality rate.

Offset against your valid points above, though, are much more travel both internal and external to the country allowing much better spread of any disease, and a 70% rise in the population which rebases to c.375,000 and also suggests more people in close proximity.

But no, not 1.4million in my (uneducated) opinion.

Sorry - edit - meant to say that it's a viral pneumonia as I understand it so antibiotics won't be any use.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:09 pm

I think you are perhaps not in possession of all the facts.

You also need to look through the propaganda of the gov, trying to stop a panic.

Currently if you look at the percentages of people who have either died or recovered.

26% have died, 74% have recovered. Not exactly flu like numbers, Now the died percentage should drop over time.

However 15% of people currently infected are in a critical condition.

The Chinese have admitted anyone who dies who haven’t been tested will not be tested and hence will never appear in the figures.

What you also need to remember is the lag in the figures of the 14 days it takes to show symptoms.

The R zero number is currently 3-4 which means the spread will still be exponential.

Anyone who thinks this is not serious is not grasping the situation.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The WHO's mortality estimate is 2% currently. You may choose to dismiss that as propaganda.

thatdberight wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:35 pm

I believe there are two different stats here. Those killed by the viral infection (600) and those killed by the infection and where the infection was a factor in exacerbating already-existing conditions (Average 17,000 / annum over 5 years):
"The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season. The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually." (Public Health England)

Since the stats for the current outbreak are all those who have died with the virus (and it's been regularly mentioned that it has mainly been those with pre-existing risks or conditions) it's sensible, I think, to compare the 17,000 figure.

Of course if we all get it in the UK and it's c.1.4million deaths, we'd look silly arguing over whether it was 1,399,400 or 1,383,000 extra deaths.

Does it really matter, in plain English 600 die from flu & the additional complications that go hand in hand with the virus, I could have easily copied & pasted more facts but I didn't deem it relevant, I assumed meaning by complications the figure could be lower but if you are suffering with a already existing illness & the flu actually finishes you off, the flu gets the vote, similar to a player setting a goal up but even if it's a tap in its the player who scores who get credited with the goal, in a simple layman terms analogy.

thatdberight wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:17 pm

The WHO's mortality estimate is 2% currently. You may choose to dismiss that as propaganda.

Lies damn lies and statistics.

31,500 have contracted the virus, 630 are dead. That 2% stat is valid, but many of those 31k are going to die.

Alternatively using their calcs, only 6% recover. Does that make you feel better now!!!

They tell you stats to make feel better and not panic.

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:28 pm

Does it really matter, in plain English 600 die from flu & the additional complications that go hand in hand with the virus...

No. That's wrong. The number you want in that sentence is 17,000 - see my previous post for PHE source.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu
That's good enough for me, everywhere I've looked & studied that same figure keeps cropping up, apart from when I come on here & look at your figures.

92% are still ill and could either die or recover and add to the percentages of dead or recovered.

You perhaps needs to understand stats more. I unfortunately use them every day so can see how they can be manipulated to tell a story that makes you feel better.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:43 pm

92% are still ill and could either die or recover and add to the percentages of dead or recovered.

You perhaps needs to understand stats more. I unfortunately use them every day so can see how they can be manipulated to tell a story that makes you feel better.

Then you'll have factored in the large numbers who are believed to be missing from the reporting. I too, use stats on a daily basis as, I'm sure, do the epidemiologists at the WHO - who are not just dividing deaths by reported cases. I'll take their (early) assessment over yours. If we all die of this, you can always repost this to mock me.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:43 pm

92% are still ill and could either die or recover and add to the percentages of dead or recovered.

You perhaps needs to understand stats more. I unfortunately use them every day so can see how they can be manipulated to tell a story that makes you feel better.

Feel free to have a stat war... my source of info where I stated that this is not too dissimilar to influenza is a relative who is actively involved in the development of treatments for this.

Stats away...

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:05 pm

Feel free to have a stat war... my source of info where I stated that this is not too dissimilar to influenza is a relative who is actively involved in the development of treatments for this.

Stats away...

Zlatan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:05 pm

Feel free to have a stat war... my source of info where I stated that this is not too dissimilar to influenza is a relative who is actively involved in the development of treatments for this.

Stats away...

If I shot you in the head with a .22 air rifle it’s gunna hurt, will break the skin but not kill you.

If I shot you in the head with a .22 rifle, your dead.

There not dissimilar to each other, just one is more deadly.

ClaretinJapan wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:13 pm

Why would he be murdered?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51403795
He caused problems for the state he knows exactly what was said to him and threats made. If he was on a ventilator etc it's easy to turn off.
Edit.
In fact I have a mate who has a box at Wuhan Wanderers and he said he was.

well my son in law is a bio chemist doctor at a university they have had samples of the virus for the last two weeks as have a number of other university in the UK..imperial college london is coordinating research..

the govt is shall we say really concerned about the potential damage of this virus..i emphasise potential...normally a vaccine takes 18 months to get to market 6 months to create 12 months testing..lets just say we wont be going to the normal testing stage with any vaccine..china will be going straight to live testing as soon as a vaccine is found...nothing is necessarily being hidden , your just not being told the whole truth about the potential for the virus to mutate or its mortality death rate increase.....

Goalposts wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:22 pm

well my son in law is a bio chemist doctor at a university they have had samples of the virus for the last two weeks as have a number of other university in the UK..imperial college london is coordinating research..

the govt is shall we say really concerned about the potential damage of this virus..i emphasise potential...normally a vaccine takes 18 months to get to market 6 months to create 12 months testing..lets just say we wont be going to the normal testing stage with any vaccine..china will be going straight to live testing as soon as a vaccine is found...nothing is necessarily being hidden , your just not being told the whole truth about the potential for the virus to mutate or its mortality death rate increase.....

That post is quite sobering.

Goalposts wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:22 pm

... your just not being told the whole truth about the potential for the virus to mutate or its mortality death rate increase.....

That possibility has been mentioned several times on the news. No point panicking. Good luck to your son!

What happened with Sars and Bird Flu, how did they come up with a cure for those? Did those take 18 months to get to market?

Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:43 pm

What happened with Sars and Bird Flu, how did they come up with a cure for those? Did those take 18 months to get to market?

There's no cure for SARS. Just a case of quarantine the poor buggers.

This is just an extension to Jakubclaret's Why I Hate Foreigners list:

Eastern Europeans - eating our ducks
Asian - working illegally
Chinese - diseased

It is looking like a death rate of 2% not all that different from a new influenza virus where there is little or no immunity. In reality it will be less than 2% as there will be those who have only a mild infection and do not come to attention of the health care system. If it gets hold here then our NHS will be swamped given the state it is already in. The great and good may think we are prepared and I am sure we are to a degree but if we get an epidemic with 2% of those infected needing a hospital bed-watch out.
We run a system which over the years has reduced NHS beds to such an extent that there is now no slack.

mdd2 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:59 pm

It is looking like a death rate of 2% not all that different from a new influenza virus where there is little or no immunity. In reality it will be less than 2% as there will be those who have only a mild infection and do not come to attention of the health care system. If it gets hold here then our NHS will be swamped given the state it is already in. The great and good may think we are prepared and I am sure we are to a degree but if we get an epidemic with 2% of those infected needing a hospital bed-watch out.
We run a system which over the years has reduced NHS beds to such an extent that there is now no slack.

If it is 2% mortality rate, it's a lot more than 2% needing treatment and, although obviously everybody wouldn't be ill at once, we've never had anything like that capacity. Not even near. And other people will still keep being ill with other things as well.

If that happened, we'd need a massive effort from everybody to get stuck in and help. I hope our society - which can't be forced to act by its government the way Chinese society can - is capable of that.

TheFamilyCat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:21 pm

This is just an extension to Jakubclaret's Why I Hate Foreigners list:

Eastern Europeans - eating our ducks
Asian - working illegally
Chinese - diseased

I'm lost for a reply, you are consistent I'll give you that