Covid-19

[Zlatan]

As the Prem and EFL has been suspended, along with the postponement of the London marathon how will the government factor that into their plans I wonder?

They are events that allow many people to get infected in a short space of time

The clue is in the use of the word “Delay” (forgive the sounding like I’m being sarcastic, but there are some people who still wouldn’t understand). The “plan” is to delay the onset of large amounts of people being infected, and as such larger amounts of elderly etc who would need ICU until the winter pressures are gone for the NHS. Even pushing it back a month would make a massive difference.

Edit - just saw your next post - that’s the reason, to limit the effect on the NHS

[paulatky]

Posted on FB a few minutes by someone in Italy.


I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.

[BennyD]

What will be, will be so keep calm and carry on.

[If it be your will]

Let's get one point clear. Antibiotics don't work on ANY virus,

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2FBFb0030485

[cricketfieldclarets]

Dont you live in Nelson?

No.

[thatdberight]

Posted on FB a few minutes by someone in Italy.


I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.

Several days ago. That's more airplay you've given to one unqualified person's necessarily limited view of events than any expert on this.

[Zlatan]

Anything, and I mean ANYTHING posted on social media with “Please share” at the bottom is usually associated with mis or disinformation and can’t be taken seriously.

[thatdberight]

Anything, and I mean ANYTHING posted on social media with “Please share” at the bottom is usually associated with mis or disinformation and can’t be taken seriously.

I checked this one - Snopes has vf'd it. And I'm sure it's how that person genuinely felt. But why anyone thinks it's got a broader lesson for us, I don't know.

I might as well post this (BBC) for equally an equally personal opinion that doesn't tell any story other than its own;

"No need to panic, says ex-patient

One of the first people in Scotland to contract Covid-19 has told the BBC about his recovery from the disease.

The man, in his 50s, was diagnosed almost two weeks ago following a trip to Italy. He returned home on 25 February, a Tuesday.

"I felt no symptoms. I was completely fine and went to work on the Wednesday and Thursday. Later on the Thursday evening, I started to feel a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery - but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs.

"I was feverish. That continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."

On 1 March, he was diagnosed and hospitalised. But from this point on, he said his symptoms did not develop any further.

"By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."

He said he wanted to tell his story to the BBC so that people did not panic about exposure to the disease."

[paulatky]

Anything, and I mean ANYTHING posted on social media with “Please share” at the bottom is usually associated with mis or disinformation and can’t be taken seriously.

It says medical staff are having to make choices of who gets treatment and who doest in Italy.ie who lives and who dies.

Those decisions will have to be made here soon

[Gordaleman]

It says medical staff are having to make choices of who gets treatment and who doest in Italy.ie who lives and who dies.

Those decisions will have to be made here soon

That's because the Tories have run down the NHS for years and years, not because of the disease itself, which of course is serious enough.

[jackmiggins]

Quite clear to me the logic of the herd immunity theory - the more young & fit folks that acquire this will vastly reduce the ‘super spreaders’. It’s not a sure fire insurance, but will reduce the infection rate substantially. I’m diabetic, so will carry out good practice & hope (probably forlornly, that everyone else will) to buy some time for a vaccine to be available.

[Zlatan]

It says medical staff are having to make choices of who gets treatment and who doest in Italy.ie who lives and who dies.

Those decisions will have to be made here soon

Wake up call for you mate, those decisions are made EVERY DAY in every hospital across the country

[Spijed]

It says medical staff are having to make choices of who gets treatment and who doest in Italy.ie who lives and who dies.

Those decisions will have to be made here soon

Isn't that because it's happened in one area of Italy, where everything has been overwhelmed? In the UK it's all over the country.

Would be interesting to know how many cases there are in Rome, for example.

Also, it's been said that many cases in rural areas went largely unreported, kept behind closed doors for quite a period of time due to the nature of Italian culture (large integrated families, many older relatives, living under one roof).

Italy tends to have a higher number of smokers.

As we are voluntary self isolating, won't that slow down the spread a bit more, lasting longer, thus less pressure on the NHS?

[thatdberight]

Isn't that because it's happened in one area of Italy, where everything has been overwhelmed? In the UK it's all over the country.

Would be interesting to know how many cases there are in Rome, for example.

Also, it's been said that many cases in rural areas went largely unreported, kept behind closed doors for quite a period of time due to the nature of Italian culture (large integrated families, many older relatives, living under one roof).

Italy tends to have a higher number of smokers.

As we are voluntary self isolating, won't that slow down the spread a bit more, lasting longer, thus less pressure on the NHS?

Who's voluntarily self-isolating? I'm not.

Unless people want to hide under a rock for a year and return to find the country is an economic wasteland, the best thing would be for the high risk groups to hunker down for a bit and the rest of us go out and get the thing so we're immune in future.

I do have to preface that with what seems to be a previously hidden truth to some people. We're all going to die to some day. For some of us that'll be much sooner than we'd like. I seriously think half the people in the country thought they were immortal and this virus is the first time it had occurred to them they're not.

[Gordaleman]

Football Focus is due on in a minute or so. That should be interesting?

[Jakubclaret]

Isn't that because it's happened in one area of Italy, where everything has been overwhelmed? In the UK it's all over the country.

Would be interesting to know how many cases there are in Rome, for example.

Also, it's been said that many cases in rural areas went largely unreported, kept behind closed doors for quite a period of time due to the nature of Italian culture (large integrated families, many older relatives, living under one roof).

Italy tends to have a higher number of smokers.

As we are voluntary self isolating, won't that slow down the spread a bit more, lasting longer, thus less pressure on the NHS?

Depends how selfish you want to be, do we want to look out for more vulnerable members of society or ourselves, I don't mind taking a short term hit quietly indoors, I'm not hungry or thirsty it's warm & I've got entertainment netflix ect, there's absolutely no need for me to venture outdoors & expose myself to a potential virus & then in turn pass that onto somebody else.

[tim_noone]

Depends how selfish you want to be, do we want to look out for more vulnerable members of society or ourselves, I don't mind taking a short term hit quietly indoors, I'm not hungry or thirsty it's warm & I've got entertainment netflix ect, there's absolutely no need for me to venture outdoors & expose myself to a potential virus & then in turn pass that onto somebody else.

So your not popping out for s drive today jakub?

[FactualFrank]

Quite clear to me the logic of the herd immunity theory - the more young & fit folks that acquire this will vastly reduce the ‘super spreaders’. It’s not a sure fire insurance, but will reduce the infection rate substantially. I’m diabetic, so will carry out good practice & hope (probably forlornly, that everyone else will) to buy some time for a vaccine to be available.

Yeah, I can understand it in theory. I guess the big question will be whether people can be reinfected. From what I read there are only rumours of people getting it twice in China, however another side to that is that it could be the same instance, as CV can calm down for a few days before finishing with a peak for a few days. So they may not have got over it and caught it again.

[Jakubclaret]

So your not popping out for s drive today jakub?

No I'm doing absolutely nothing outdoors, I might empty my bin onto the main bin on the backstreet ready for collection, that's all I'll be doing, I can do everything online topping up & ordering food.

[thatdberight]

The posh Southern ponces of Baaaarrrrrrrtthhhh have more balls than many self-styled gritty Northerners it seems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-51887950

[Spijed]

Depends how selfish you want to be, do we want to look out for more vulnerable members of society or ourselves, I don't mind taking a short term hit quietly indoors, I'm not hungry or thirsty it's warm & I've got entertainment netflix ect, there's absolutely no need for me to venture outdoors & expose myself to a potential virus & then in turn pass that onto somebody else.

Like you, I'm in a higher risk group. I have lowered white cells so will be a bit more careful. My parents also have underlying health issues, although I suspect most people over 70 do.

My hope is that through worry and a bit of fear many like me and my family will be a bit more more careful when they go to the supermarket etc.

[Bfcboyo]

Because why? Which ones?

China and Iran in particular seem to be totally unrealistic with the new numbers of daily cases considering how many are infected. Either they simply aren't testing people or fiddling the numbers for political reasons.

[Jakubclaret]

Like you, I'm in a higher risk group. I have lowered white cells so will be a bit more careful. My parents also have underlying health issues, although I suspect most people over 70 do.

My hope is that through worry and a bit of fear many like me and my family will be a bit more more careful when they go to the supermarket etc.

Out of sight out of danger, if I want fresh air I'll just open a window, it works.

[thatdberight]

China and Iran in particular seem to be totally unrealistic with the new numbers of daily cases considering how many are infected. Either they simply aren't testing people or fiddling the numbers for political reasons.

Iran, I agree is unreliable. Perhaps some manipulation but just as much the difficulty of gathering the figures and it's not a rich country.

China, I disagree. They're on top of this for now as much as anyone can be. There's no evidence that their figures aren't broadly reliable at this stage.

[Spijed]

With Chloroquine and other drugs being widely available I wonder how quickly we might see treatments, rather than any vaccine to fight against the virus?

[Spijed]

Wonder if there is any correlation between the number of cases in Spain & Italy and other EU countries when you look at how tactile people are in those countries compared to the UK, for example?

We tend not to greet as many people by kissing them on the cheek, which is more prominent in those two.

[Lowbankclaret]

Another 10 deaths in the UK today.

Considering only 20 were serious or critical yesterday that’s not a good number, apparently they were all over 70.

In the up side 10 icu beds freed up. RIP all.

E96EA4CF-174E-49A5-BBFB-3600B178A61F.png (331.32 KiB) Viewed 2328 times

[ElectroClaret]

Just announced, 10 more people have died in UK, bringing the total so far to 21.(BBC)

[Gordaleman]

With Chloroquine and other drugs being widely available I wonder how quickly we might see treatments, rather than any vaccine to fight against the virus?

Chloroquine is being over rated. China said it had seen improvement in only a small minotity of cases when it was tried.

I'm just drinking Gin and Tonic.

[FactualFrank]

Just announced, 10 more people have died in UK, bringing the total so far to 21.(BBC)

Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England has said that the 10 new fatalities were patients in "at risk groups", adding that the Government is taking "every measure" to save lives.

“I am sorry to confirm 10 further patients who have tested positive for Covid-19 in England have died.

“All 10 individuals were in the at risk groups.

“I understand this increase in the number of deaths linked to Covid-19 will be a cause for concern for many. The public should know every measure we are taking is seeking to save lives and protect the most vulnerable. Every single one of us has a role to play in achieving this.

“If you have a new continuous cough or high temperature, please stay at home for seven days. I also encourage everyone to be washing their hands for 20 seconds regularly.

“I offer my sincere condolences to the families and friends who have received this difficult news. I ask that their privacy is respected at this time.”

[Gordaleman]

Just announced, 10 more people have died in UK, bringing the total so far to 21.(BBC)

Very sad, but inevitable. It will get much worse before it gets better.

[Jakubclaret]

No problem with you saying that, but just to add (according to the BBC stats):
There are 6 in "Lancashire", 2 on the Fylde and 0 In Blackburn and Darwen, (so 8 in total) but of course that takes the total population up to over 1.5 million if you aggregate all 3 authorities.

It's 7 according to my information, if you seperate Lancashire & the Fylde & just use Lancashire, I could find out for Yorkshire & use Yorkshire & Bradford, forget the region's districts & councils & just use the county, makes it simpler & easier to understand
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... t-17862542. Updated 14/3/20 2:15pm

[thatdberight]

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:52 pm
"85 in this country have it, probably none will die"

Out by 21. So far.

[mdd2]

That's because the Tories have run down the NHS for years and years, not because of the disease itself, which of course is serious enough.

The infirm are rarely suitable candidates for Intensive care, decisions that are taken every day in hospital in the UK and elsewhere. An illness that puts you into ITU clobbers even the fittest person for weeks aftrewards and many fit elderly are never the same afterwards
Italy 331 beds per 100,000 people, Germany 823, Poland 663, France 621, Greece 424, Portugal 332 Spain 297 and UK 273
It will be harder for us to deal with this for those who need admission but as the sickes are likely to be proportionately the infirm and elderly infirm their chances of recovery will be less and many if not all would not be ventilated even for pneumonia when Covid-19 is not around. Today's Daily Mail headline is a disgrace. This illness is bad enough (death toll doubled overnight I see) without adding unnecessary fear on us.
We will have to triage, much as has to be done after large major trauma or on the battlefield, dealing with what is recoverable and keeping comfortable those who will not recover.

[Spiral]

These numbers are going to rise. It's tragic, but inevitable. It's better to reconcile this fact than to tremble before it. For your own mental health (I mean that genuinely) don't look for a pale rider on a pale horse, but rather trust in the science. Macabrely transfixing as an ever-rising death toll may seem for reasons that are primitive in our psychology and undoubtedly selected for by evolution, it's not practical to dwell or be consumed by it, nor is it sustainable over long periods. One individual cannot exert control over a pandemic; we do this together, and it's damaging to your psyche to attempt in vain to grasp at it.

[Inchy]

The infirm are rarely suitable candidates for Intensive care, decisions that are taken every day in hospital in the UK and elsewhere. An illness that puts you into ITU clobbers even the fittest person for weeks aftrewards and many fit elderly are never the same afterwards
Italy 331 beds per 100,000 people, Germany 823, Poland 663, France 621, Greece 424, Portugal 332 Spain 297 and UK 273
It will be harder for us to deal with this for those who need admission but as the sickes are likely to be proportionately the infirm and elderly infirm their chances of recovery will be less and many if not all would not be ventilated even for pneumonia when Covid-19 is not around. Today's Daily Mail headline is a disgrace. This illness is bad enough (death toll doubled overnight I see) without adding unnecessary fear on us.
We will have to triage, much as has to be done after large major trauma or on the battlefield, dealing with what is recoverable and keeping comfortable those who will not recover.

Spot on


I am involved in those discussions on a daily basis. Patients are referred to me who clearly are not appropriate for intensive care.

Intensive care knocks fit people for six. The chronically frail are very rarely considered for intensive care.

[Zlatan]

85 in this country have it, probably none will die, so what's the mortality rate in this country ?

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:52 pm
"85 in this country have it, probably none will die"

Out by 21. So far.

You’ve got to learn how to use the quote function properly, took me ages to find the post you referred to. We have no idea if any of the 85 referenced have actually died or not, but I understand what you wanted to get across.

[Spijed]

Spot on


I am involved in those discussions on a daily basis. Patients are referred to me who clearly are not appropriate for intensive care.

Intensive care knocks fit people for six. The chronically frail are very rarely considered for intensive care.

Will it be easy to convert all High dependency units to ICU's?

[FactualFrank]

Can we quit quoting what people predicted. It's hardly the time to try and show people that they were incorrect and try and look superior.

1,140 coronavirus cases have now been confirmed in the UK, according to Public Health England.

This is a significant surge - 342 new cases have been diagnosed since 2pm yesterday.

[Gordaleman]

You’ve got to learn how to use the quote function properly, took me ages to find the post you referred to. We have no idea if any of the 85 referenced have actually died or not, but I understand what you wanted to get across.

Precisely. It certainly isn't 21. Not bad from someone who supposedly deals only in facts.

[thatdberight]

You’ve got to learn how to use the quote function properly, took me ages to find the post you referred to. We have no idea if any of the 85 referenced have actually died or not, but I understand what you wanted to get across.

If I do that I'm just reposting edited highlights from the debate, particularly from the "nothing to see here" posters. Last time I called out such things directly, it was deemed too close to bullying so I'll let the unattributed quotes stand for themselves as this plays itself out. You're right about the specific 85 patients but the coda to that comment... "so what's the mortality rate in the UK?" is the mindset that still underpins some posters' contributions.

[thatdberight]

Can we quit quoting what people predicted. It's hardly the time to try and show people that they were incorrect and try and look superior.

That's not the intent. People reading this just need to realise that there have been previous posts that turned out to be badly wrong. That would help people sift through what's currently posted and by whom to decide what to take seriously.

[Gordaleman]

Can we quit quoting what people predicted. It's hardly the time to try and show people that they were incorrect and try and look superior.

1,140 coronavirus cases have now been confirmed in the UK, according to Public Health England.

This is a significant surge - 342 new cases have been diagnosed since 2pm yesterday.

And it will continue to go up in similar proprtions. It's just a matter of stretching it out for as long as we can, so that the vastly underfunded NHS can somehow cope.

Boris's approach is designed for political reasons more than anything else, to deflect, as much as possible from that underfunding.

[Jakubclaret]

Chloroquine is being over rated. China said it had seen improvement in only a small minotity of cases when it was tried.

I'm just drinking Gin and Tonic.

Regarding the small minorities it’s difficult to say if the chloroquine was responsible & not nature in assisting the improvements, it is overrated & with the interactions & common side effects won’t be suitable for all, it’s a poor substitute for nothing, it’s almost like we’ve got this let’s try it to see if it works, shows how far a suitable solution (vaccine) is when experimenting like this.

[mdd2]

Where are you based Inchy?

[Inchy]

Will it be easy to convert all High dependency units to ICU's?

Not easily but doable I reckon. All theatres and recovery areas will also be converted.

Trained staff will be the issue. You can kill people pretty quickly if you don’t know what you are doing with a ventilator. A lot of sedated patients require inotropes, a drug that can quickly kill someone if it runs out. Many sick people require high levels of potassium, a very dangerous drug. Currently ITU always run 1:1 staffing for the reasons of having really sick patient that require very dangerous therapies. I can see that ratio changing to cope with a crisis.

I currently work assessing patients on the ward and try to fix them so they don’t need ITU. If they need it I transfer them there and look after them if ITU don’t have the staff.

I reckon at best where I work we can treble the ITU beds. We are already understaffed though. Most days there are empty beds but not the capacity to take patients because there isn’t the staff. That’s before covid 19.

There’s also the issue that there might not be enough vents, and consumables

Also young people are being admitted into ITU with covid in Italy. It isn’t just the old and frail.

The Intensivists where I work are taking this very seriously and are expecting the worst

[Inchy]

Where are you based Inchy?

Leeds

[Inchy]

Edit

[dsr]

I have watched several programmes and debates and the numbers they all talked about were around 6000 in a normal year and 12000 in serious years.
I not sure your numbers are correct, I humbly suggest.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2015to2017

Sorry, I forgot to put the link up. It's the download at the bottom and there are four tables - table 3 shows how many death certificates featured flu and/or pneumonia; table 4 shows how many were over 65.

[LoveCurryPies]

If 1% of the world population dies....it will be 77million people.