Covid-19

[Danieljwaterhouse]

Wars are won by defeating the enemy. As the North Vietnamese showed the world’s richest nation back in the ‘70s.

Okay...

We default, on billions of pounds of debt...China say okay?

China with a standing army of 2million....Britain with 190,000.

[Danieljwaterhouse]

Can't believe I'm in total agreement with Andrew but he is right, US & Europe default on debt and appropriate assets/accounts would not be beyond reality if you're really thinking about war, Plus Vietnam Vs USA was another very good example, however it's not going to happen, is it, war I mean.

Good god, I worry that some of you might well need to read some history books, followed by economics, and then add yourself in a political book or two. Then you’ll be equipped to see how stupid it is to compare Vietnam to a hypothetical financial default.

China own the world, they finance the world, they’re untouchable. That’s even before you consider their trade impact and ability to squash any economy in minutes.

[tim_noone]

Okay...

We default, on billions of pounds of debt...China say okay?

China with a standing army of 2million....Britain with 190,000.

My Mutha says if they come banging on her door I've to say Shintin....

[KateR]

Good god, I worry that some of you might well need to read some history books, followed by economics, and then add yourself in a political book or two. Then you’ll be equipped to see how stupid it is to compare Vietnam to a hypothetical financial default.

China own the world, they finance the world, they’re untouchable. That’s even before you consider their trade impact and ability to squash any economy in minutes.

I'm sorry to say this but you really don't know what you're talking about plus you are clearly NOT reading or understanding what was written, Vietnam, poor country - USA very rich country, since you mentioned history, which one won in a war? Don't answer please, everyone knows.

You really don't have to reply, it's a different discussion somewhere else, this is for C-19 so I will be stopping with this now.

[KateR]

I thought I was beginning to understand it a little but when I looked at this, am back to the, what, really

'Never been as shocked'
But what is not clear is what else is contributing to this spike in deaths - the coronavirus cases contributed just over half of the "extra" 6,000 deaths.
It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health deaths going up.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in risk at the University of Cambridge, said this needed investigating. But he said he had "never been as shocked" as when he saw the scale of the increase in deaths.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52278825

[thatdberight]

I thought I was beginning to understand it a little but when I looked at this, am back to the, what, really

'Never been as shocked'
But what is not clear is what else is contributing to this spike in deaths - the coronavirus cases contributed just over half of the "extra" 6,000 deaths.
It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health deaths going up.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in risk at the University of Cambridge, said this needed investigating. But he said he had "never been as shocked" as when he saw the scale of the increase in deaths.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52278825

Sir David seems to be available to be quoted being both shocked and sanguine about it today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

"Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, at the University of Cambridge, points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap"."

[Danieljwaterhouse]

I'm sorry to say this but you really don't know what you're talking about plus you are clearly NOT reading or understanding what was written, Vietnam, poor country - USA very rich country, since you mentioned history, which one won in a war? Don't answer please, everyone knows.

You really don't have to reply, it's a different discussion somewhere else, this is for C-19 so I will be stopping with this now.

To draw a comparison between a superpower going to war with a relative third world nation 6 decades ago and the western world going to war with a nuclear superpower In 2020 is LUDICROUS!

I assure you I am well aware of the political/economic situations faced by governments in 2020.

You’re supporting an argument that if the western developed world can’t get reparations from China then we should default and If the worst comes to the worst create war.

War that would be funded by Governments whose debt has been bought by the Chinese.

To put it into a context you might understand: you owe Barclaycard £1000, you don’t fancy paying it so you go and throw a brick through HSBC’s window.

[KateR]

Sir David seems to be available to be quoted being both shocked and sanguine about it today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

"Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, at the University of Cambridge, points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap"."

What are your thoughts on why he believes we are seeing 50%/3000 deaths more not attributed to C-19 than would normally have been during this period.

I think we all understand many deaths attributed to C-19 would have occurred in the 12 month period for 2020 and we have discussed needing to see the outcome in time rather than a knee jerk reaction at this time, but quite obviously some will use now as a weapon.

[KateR]

To draw a comparison between a superpower going to war with a relative third world nation 6 decades ago and the western world going to war with a nuclear superpower In 2020 is LUDICROUS!

I assure you I am well aware of the political/economic situations faced by governments in 2020.

You’re supporting an argument that if the western developed world can’t get reparations from China then we should default and If the worst comes to the worst create war.

War that would be funded by Governments whose debt has been bought by the Chinese.

To put it into a context you might understand: you owe Barclaycard £1000, you don’t fancy paying it so you go and throw a brick through HSBC’s window.

[thatdberight]

What are your thoughts on why he believes we are seeing 50%/3000 deaths more not attributed to C-19 than would normally have been during this period.

I think we all understand many deaths attributed to C-19 would have occurred in the 12 month period for 2020 and we have discussed needing to see the outcome in time rather than a knee jerk reaction at this time, but quite obviously some will use now as a weapon.

No idea. If it continues, it'll be material. It could be anything really.

I'm not putting this forward as anything other than a statistical explanation but this sort of effect of could be if there are actually many more cases in the general population than we know and some frail, much older people died as a result of it in among those relatively early in the outbreak. Or it could be important new data that resets our understanding.

[KateR]

No idea. If it continues, it'll be material. It could be anything really.

I'm not putting this forward as anything other than a statistical explanation but this sort of effect of could be if there are actually many more cases in the general population than we know and some frail, much older people died as a result of it in among those relatively early in the outbreak. Or it could be important new data that resets our understanding.

at the risk of the usual attacks from a few, that sort of mirrors my thoughts, am confused and will wait and see.

[Bfcboyo]

Anybody else secretly enjoying the turmoil and disruption with a morbid edge of new found pschycopathic tendencies previously subdued in the modern cabaret that is life.

Yearning selfishly for more punishment and pain to be unleashed upon the flock of dull masses as a dark anguish captivates your mind and a twisted black curiosity your heart and soul.

Gone are the days of sweetness and light as we stand on the cliff edge alone for judgement and redemption , alone and without God but only with the beast as a friend and nemesis combined at our side.

Down with the power and the glory, the black plumes of death producing towers stand still and finally the electric voice of binary will silence . Only then will all be beautiful , only then shall all appreciate the green garden of truth.

[Damo]

This thread seems to become more bonkers every time I look at it

[Bfcboyo]

This thread seems to become more bonkers every time I look at it

Oh come on it was just a little light hearted poem looking at things from the dark side of life. With little pieces of thought tugging statement to provoke your minds .

[tim_noone]

Oh come on it was just a little light hearted poem looking at things from the dark side of life. With little pieces of thought tugging statement to provoke your minds .

I guessed you were quoting some Bard of yesteryear pray do tell.....who was it? 20century Ted?

[Bfcboyo]

Yes it was Bundy well spotted.

[tim_noone]

Yes it was Bundy well spotted.

I was thinking more Hughes......But touching words on a Beautiful Morning.

[Bfcboyo]

No quotes sadly all from my head.

[jackmiggins]

I was merely putting forward a scenario. I’m an Engineer, but I certainly understand economics as well as the finance glitterati who missed the 2008 crash.
My own belief is that a complete change in World banking has been required for many, many years. Perhaps this will prove a stepping stone to creating global equilibrium.
The thought that we all will be eternally paying into the banker’s coffers is, surely, abhorrent?

[thatdberight]

I'm an Engineer, but I certainly understand economics as well as the finance glitterati who missed the 2008 crash.

Basically, these media folk believe that they have a better ‘handle’ on events than everyone else... all too happy to appear as experts in a field that is completely alien to them.

My own belief is that a complete change in World banking has been required for many, many years.

Reports are made ...meant to lead you to their own... point of view.

[AndrewJB]

Okay...

We default, on billions of pounds of debt...China say okay?

China with a standing army of 2million....Britain with 190,000.

Can I add a world atlas to your reading list?

National defaults have historically led to prosperity. Look up Solon’s Athens. 16th Century France. Germany after they refused to pay WW1 reparations. For an opposite example, let me know how all those African nations got on trying to pay interest in crippling levels of debt.

[jackmiggins]

Some on here seem to believe that ‘it is, because it is’ - we couldn’t possibly change anything - it’s never been done before. I’d question their experience in life and wonder if they have any conception of evolution. Seems to me that they will always kowtow, so to speak. That’s not my perception and never will be.

[Lowbankclaret]

Teams efforts made the local news.

https://www.pendletoday.co.uk/news/peop ... hs-2539067

[FactualFrank]

Builders of the Titanic remove lookout towers from new boats.

trump.jpg (60.96 KiB) Viewed 3432 times

[tim_noone]

Teams efforts made the local news.

https://www.pendletoday.co.uk/news/peop ... hs-2539067

Very Well done to all involved

[thatdberight]

Some on here seem to believe that ‘it is, because it is’ - we couldn’t possibly change anything - it’s never been done before. I’d question their experience in life and wonder if they have any conception of evolution. Seems to me that they will always kowtow, so to speak. That’s not my perception and never will be.

Nothing is more likely to change the world than posting about a revolution in world banking on a football message board.

[Paul Waine]

Can I add a world atlas to your reading list?

National defaults have historically led to prosperity. Look up Solon’s Athens. 16th Century France. Germany after they refused to pay WW1 reparations. For an opposite example, let me know how all those African nations got on trying to pay interest in crippling levels of debt.

Incredible, Andrew. Do you really think that Germany refusing to pay WW1 reparations led to prosperity? Most people understand that after the economic failure of the Weimar Republic Hitler and National Socialism came to power. Very few would claim that was a period of prosperity for Germany or anywhere else in the world.

[dsr]

Can I add a world atlas to your reading list?

National defaults have historically led to prosperity. Look up Solon’s Athens. 16th Century France. Germany after they refused to pay WW1 reparations. For an opposite example, let me know how all those African nations got on trying to pay interest in crippling levels of debt.

If you're seriously quoting Germany post-WW1 as a way of getting rich, I think you may have fully taken leave of your senses. There were other, even less avoury, aspects to their new-found prosperity.

[KateR]

If you're seriously quoting Germany post-WW1 as a way of getting rich, I think you may have fully taken leave of your senses. There were other, even less avoury, aspects to their new-found prosperity.

I don't believe he was saying that at all, in the context of what was being hypothesized by someone else I "believe" he was saying when they defaulted they were not invaded and taken over by a or other countries as a result. As you point out it's a pity they weren't in regard as to what was to follow but that's a different story to what he was saying, (I believe) but am 100% sure he will come along and tell you himself.

[Danieljwaterhouse]

Can I add a world atlas to your reading list?

National defaults have historically led to prosperity. Look up Solon’s Athens. 16th Century France. Germany after they refused to pay WW1 reparations. For an opposite example, let me know how all those African nations got on trying to pay interest in crippling levels of debt.

You’re quite right to highlight these historical precedents, none are a developed nation defaulting from a AA status...

[thatdberight]

You’re quite right to highlight these historical precedents, none are a developed nation defaulting from a AA status...

You can't see how the clear similarities between defaulting on debt to China in 2020 and the internal reforms of serfdom, debt and indenture among a few thousand Athenians in 600BC? Keep up.

[tiger76]

My first post on this thread for a few days,just highlighting the deaths outwith hospitals,now these are Scotland only figures,but they probably point to similar numbers UK wide,the care home figure is particularly worrying.

962 deaths have now been registered in Scotland where the Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate - either confirmed or suspected
608 of the deaths were in the past week
596 deaths occurred in hospitals
237 were in care homes - that's around 25% of the total
128 were in the home or outside of care.
Just under 70% of all registered deaths involving Covid-19 were of people aged 75 or over, and only eight of those who died were aged under 45.

The latter sentence does suggest it's the elderly who are especially vulnerable to this disease,but there is a handful of deaths in the 45 and under demographic,and as you'd expect men are impacted far more than women,a good proportion of fatalities in middle-aged patients as well,but there could be other reasons for this,let's be honest Scotland isn't exactly known for a healthy population in the main.

[Danieljwaterhouse]

You can't see how the clear similarities between defaulting on debt to China in 2020 and the internal reforms of serfdom, debt and indenture among a few thousand Athenians in 600BC? Keep up.

Not really? But happy to be educated....

On a different note, can we have a sticky at the top of the page with all those posters and their alter egos clearly identified....

[Chuckypad]

You can't see how the clear similarities between defaulting on debt to China in 2020 and the internal reforms of serfdom, debt and indenture among a few thousand Athenians in 600BC? Keep up.

Not really? But happy to be educated....

[PWBFC]

Can I add a world atlas to your reading list?

National defaults have historically led to prosperity. Look up Solon’s Athens. 16th Century France. Germany after they refused to pay WW1 reparations. For an opposite example, let me know how all those African nations got on trying to pay interest in crippling levels of debt.

What are your thoughts on middle income Argentina and their 8 defaults and how that has impacted their economic prosperity?

[thatdberight]

What are your thoughts on middle income Argentina and their 8 defaults and how that has impacted their economic prosperity?

Considering the opportunities it has, Argentina is in a very poor position.

- vast natural resources in energy and agriculture
- extraordinary fertile lands, gas and lithium reserves, and has great potential for renewable energy
- a leading food producer
- significant opportunities in some manufacturing subsectors, and innovative services in high tech industries.

- historical volatility of economic growth
- accumulation of institutional obstacles have impeded the country’s development
- urban poverty in Argentina remains high : 35.5% of population, poverty in children 52.3%.

- financial turbulence in 2018 - a program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) started in 2018, for about US$ 57 billion

- the economic situation presents a precarious balance
- Peso has lost 68% of its value since 2018
- Inflation is 50%+
- 2.5% fall in GDP in 2018, 2.2% fall in GDP in 2019

(World Bank)

[Paul Waine]

Wikipedia has a list of sovereign debt crises and defaults since 1557. It is a very long list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ebt_crises

It doesn't leave the impression that defaulting on sovereign debt leads to prosperity.

[mdd2]

Germany settled its debt for WW1 in October 2010, 20 years after West Germany then took on the massive financial burden of reunification when it decided parity of the West German Mark with the Ostmark

[AndrewJB]

You’re quite right to highlight these historical precedents, none are a developed nation defaulting from a AA status...

What has changed significantly about the nature of debt between now and ancient Greece? Other than the fact that the non payment of debt is treated with much greater leniency, and in fact systems and processes have been set up to facilitate it, I'd say very little.

[AndrewJB]

What are your thoughts on middle income Argentina and their 8 defaults and how that has impacted their economic prosperity?

I'm not advocating non payment of debt as a cure all, or even something to take lightly. What I'm saying is when a country gets into a position with debt where it becomes an intractable problem and causes a lot of hardship - such as many African countries experienced over the last forty years - then defaulting is a better option than debt servitude. If the cost of servicing a debt hugely inhibits the ability of a government to provide the essentials by which a country gets by, then of course that country will see greater prosperity if that debt no longer exists. If most of the money you earn goes to servicing debt, and that debt disappears, then most of the money you earn will be yours again. It's not so simple for individual people, but it's a choice that a nation state can make.

[AndrewJB]

Wikipedia has a list of sovereign debt crises and defaults since 1557. It is a very long list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ebt_crises

It doesn't leave the impression that defaulting on sovereign debt leads to prosperity.

Britain is on there for several defaults during the 19th Century. Was Britain not prosperous during the 19th Century? The US - and numbers of US states - are there. What would have been the consequences of not defaulting? Germany's attempt to pay reparations caused more economic problems than occurred once Germany decided to stop paying. It's not going to be a simple black and white thing as every individual case will have different factors

[Paul Waine]

Britain is on there for several defaults during the 19th Century. Was Britain not prosperous during the 19th Century? The US - and numbers of US states - are there. What would have been the consequences of not defaulting? Germany's attempt to pay reparations caused more economic problems than occurred once Germany decided to stop paying. It's not going to be a simple black and white thing as every individual case will have different factors

Did the length of the list surprise you? It did me. The lesson many draw is that defaulting on debt is not required to create prosperity, in fact being in a position where default will occur is a sign of a weak economy and it's solving the problems of weakness that will start to rebuild an economy and, if successful, can lead to future prosperity.

The reparations required of Germany following defeat in WW1 are recognised as a contributor to the conditions that led to the rise of National Socialism, Hitler and WW2. The world has learnt from this experience and a very different approach was taken post-WW2.

Stay safe. Have a good day.

[FactualFrank]

Three-week lockdown extension set to be approved.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Three-week lockdown extension set to be approved.

No surprise I think France had extended there’s to 10th May and we were a few weeks behind them in terms of peak.

[thatdberight]

Britain is on there for several defaults during the 19th Century. Was Britain not prosperous during the 19th Century?

Just grabbing something off Wikipedia is often not sound (that article has no citations for the 19th century events).

"United Kingdom 1749, 1822, 1834, 1888–89
(these restructurings appear to be mostly voluntary)"
Reinhart and Rogoff 2010
{For clarity - the note about them being voluntary applies to all four instances - not just the last}

I haven't time to read through any more of Hansard to understand Earl Grey's (yes, that one) contribution to the debate about whether the conditions allowing legitimate reductions to the coupon had been met on the Navy Five Per Cents but that circumstance is only linked in the most tenuous way to the possibility of default to another sovereign nation.

From Reinhart and Rogoff's note, I'd assume the same lack of applicability for the others you cite.

[FactualFrank]

No surprise I think France had extended there’s to 10th May and we were a few weeks behind them in terms of peak.

Absolutely. I'm actually quite enjoying the peace and quiet.

[thatdberight]

No surprise I think France had extended there’s to 10th May and we were a few weeks behind them in terms of peak.

They changed measurement mid-stream so it's hard to tell when theirs was. We appear to have been at a peak / plateau of new cases for a few days.

[Erasmus]

It's going to be such a difficult task working out how best to come out of this. It's looking like the plateau is going to extend for some time before going down and pressure will grow for a relaxation of restrictions, not least because of the economic impact. But then when the relaxation starts to take place, people may explode from their confinement and numbers may start to increase again.

We need much greater preparedness for a second wave, primarily in the form of greater testing facility so that when new cases occur they can be restricted. We also urgently need a vaccine, knowledge of the extent to which immunity is acquired by infection, antibody tests, and effective anti-viral medications. The longer we stick to restrictions, and the more gradually we ease them, then the greater the likelihood that effective prevention measures will be in place when relaxation does begin.

[Jakubclaret]

Absolutely. I'm actually quite enjoying the peace and quiet.

Same here, I'm not fussed if the lockdown never gets lifted in some ways it's a better life even if still working, people seem to show more manners in queues ect & far more consideration everywhere you look, air pollutions down, crimes down, I don't think we've ever had it so good, I'm in no way diminishing the seriousness of the virus or undermining efforts of the people trying to contain it, just appreciating a different better life.

[thatdberight]

No surprise I think France had extended there’s to 10th May and we were a few weeks behind them in terms of peak.

Prof Neil Ferguson today (16 April):
"Prof Ferguson said he believed the "daily number of infections peaked two weeks ago""