Covid-19

[jackmiggins]

mapinchina - from your previous posts, have you been in Japan or China? If in China, was it Wixu?

[Zlatan]

I agree, that can certainly be a massive variable in the data.

I also don’t understand the UK strategy of just reducing testing and letting people get ill.

It’s back to the days of sending kids to play with their ill friends like my mum did with mumps.
I never got it even after being around two different kids who were really ill with it.

There is some logic in it, I think! If the experts are expecting upwards of 60-80% of the population to get this then there is actually nothing that anyone can do to stop 60--80% of people getting it. I know I have contested this previously, but that was only in relation to the inaccurate rates people were quoting.

If you then go on to assume that that amount of the population will get it, you'll want to minimise the impact to the population you want to flatten the curve...

Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v3.gif (688.05 KiB) Viewed 2504 times

Only by flattening the curve can the NHS cope with the more serious cases and increase the chances of reducing deaths.

Each country has a different approach, in Italy they've shut down - thats their choice - it may be right it may be wrong. However if you accept that the same 60-80% in Italy will eventually get it then you have to accept that you cant stop it either way. The different approach in Italy is because they are "ahead of our curve". We may well shut down like Italy (it's actually quite likely) but the main reason to delay is to flatten the curve.

Now onto death rates - the problem I have consistently stated that quoting current death rates is disingenuous because the denominator is not actually known (I have tried to explain is many ways on here). Only when it's all done and dusted will we have a better idea, but I do KNOW that the denominator quoted in death rates will always be a lower value than reality because it is. The order of magnitude of this variance is what people just dont currently know, I used SK as an example of a more accurate (not right!) value because they are systematically testing a lot of people so they are catching those who would normally not be tested and go under the radar in our country - i.e. Joe Bloggs has a snuffle, self isolates for a week then carries on. His data is not recorded at all in terms of the official data, but he will be included in the 60-80% estimate.

I am not going to estimate numbers of deaths, because it is disingenuous to do so. However this will affect the elderly and those with specific health conditions - as Boris stated some will die earlier than they should have, but it still is not Armageddon.

[paulatky]

The most accurate figure for mortality rates might well be provided by the cruise ship, Diamond Princess. That was a closed environment in which everyone was tested. In that case there were about 700 confirmed cases of whom 7 have since died. Of course, others may die in the future but that was a couple of weeks ago now. These figures would suggest that the actual mortality rate is about 1% although cruise ships may have a disproportionate number of older people as passengers.

It seems likely that the very high mortality rate in Italy is due to the fact that they have not been testing a lot of people so the number of actual cases is probably much higher. Interesting that the medical authorities in the UK are suggesting that the number of actual cases is probably ten or even twenty times higher than confirmed cases, suggesting again that mortality rates might be lower.

The age profile of those passengers would be a key factor.

[Barry_Chuckle]

So, if footy is postponed there will be a good % who would then do something else. Visit Trafford centre with the other half, go the pictures, go out for drinks and a meal.
I really don't know what the best solution is, but I fail to see much difference if footy is cancelled or not.
Unless either team are in quarantine obviously.

[cricketfieldclarets]

There is some logic in it, I think! If the experts are expecting upwards of 60-80% of the population to get this then there is actually nothing that anyone can do to stop 60--80% of people getting it. I know I have contested this previously, but that was only in relation to the inaccurate rates people were quoting.

If you then go on to assume that that amount of the population will get it, you'll want to minimise the impact to the population you want to flatten the curve...
Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v3.gif

Only by flattening the curve can the NHS cope with the more serious cases and increase the chances of reducing deaths.

Each country has a different approach, in Italy they've shut down - thats their choice - it may be right it may be wrong. However if you accept that the same 60-80% in Italy will eventually get it then you have to accept that you cant stop it either way. The different approach in Italy is because they are "ahead of our curve". We may well shut down like Italy (it's actually quite likely) but the main reason to delay is to flatten the curve.

Now onto death rates - the problem I have consistently stated that quoting current death rates is disingenuous because the denominator is not actually known (I have tried to explain is many ways on here). Only when it's all done and dusted will we have a better idea, but I do KNOW that the denominator quoted in death rates will always be a lower value than reality because it is. The order of magnitude of this variance is what people just dont currently know, I used SK as an example of a more accurate (not right!) value because they are systematically testing a lot of people so they are catching those who would normally not be tested and go under the radar in our country - i.e. Joe Bloggs has a snuffle, self isolates for a week then carries on. His data is not recorded at all in terms of the official data, but he will be included in the 60-80% estimate.

I am not going to estimate numbers of deaths, because it is disingenuous to do so. However this will affect the elderly and those with specific health conditions - as Boris stated some will die earlier than they should have, but it still is not Armageddon.

Really good post and the simple graph makes it much easier to understand the logic.

[boatshed bill]

I posted that earlier and agree with you.

Champion's League now suspended.

Sorry, didn't see your post.

[thatdberight]

So, if footy is postponed there will be a good % who would then do something else. Visit Trafford centre with the other half, go the pictures, go out for drinks and a meal.
I really don't know what the best solution is, but I fail to see much difference if footy is cancelled or not.
Unless either team are in quarantine obviously.

That's the logic we're working to and it seens, as a layman, sensible to me.

[Gordaleman]

Imagine if the Liverpool derby is played behind closed doors on Monday. Thousands of fans will still turn up at the ground to try and create an atmosphere, so they might as well be inside.

Prior to all seater stadiums there was little if any segregation in Liverpool Everton games as everyone gets on well. Imagine if fans gathered outside at a Utd City game or between Arsenal Spurs though. There would be mayhem.

That's why postponement is a better option than playing behind closed doors. The police are going to have enough on their plates without trying to control fighting fans.

[tim_noone]

So, if footy is postponed there will be a good % who would then do something else. Visit Trafford centre with the other half, go the pictures, go out for drinks and a meal.
I really don't know what the best solution is, but I fail to see much difference if footy is cancelled or not.
Unless either team are in quarantine obviously.

Well I was Slagged off for quoting information on here regards the games being played behind closed doors by my own personal "Cuban" Troll. It now appears games "could"
be called off altogether.but I won't speculate. Whatever the situation shopping/Travelling anywhere could be problematic.

[Gordaleman]

PL to be suspended until at least 4th April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/51867944

[NottsClaret]

I read a epidemiologist report on Wuhan on Twitter last night and this guy suggested that 95% of the residents remain vulnerable to catching it once restrictions are lifted.

Basically, sooner or later, it will go through the whole planet like a dose of salts. That seems to be the conclusion our government has reached, and so they want immunity building up now. Not sure the Chinese approach should be praised just yet.

I was thinking the same Crosspool. There's no doubt China and Italy's 'lockdown' works. But only while it's on. Once they go back to work, why won't it spread again to everyone who hasn't had it?

Remember, it only needed one fella eating a bat to start it the first time. There's no way they're going to stop it from starting off again once the country is up and running.

The doom mongers and those frenziedly panicking just haven't accepted it yet. There isn't a good solution, we've just got to take it on the chin and deal with it, either now or whenever you choose to lift your lockdown. We're not accustomed to that in the modern world but there you go.

[FactualFrank]

I was thinking the same Crosspool. There's no doubt China and Italy's 'lockdown' works. But only while it's on. Once they go back to work, why won't it spread again to everyone who hasn't had it?

Well if the numbers are correct, any surface will no longer have the virus on it and the people who have had it, will have either passed away or recovered. So how will they catch it? Presumably from people who have recovered, however the experts say that can only be for 28 days.

So I assume the only other option is people flying into China who have it.

[Gordaleman]

Well if the numbers are correct, any surface will no longer have the virus on it and the people who have had it, will have either passed away or recovered. So how will they catch it? Presumably from people who have recovered, however the experts say that can only be for 28 days.

So I assume the only other option is people flying into China who have it.

Spot on but it doesn't fit some people's doomsday forecasts.

[NottsClaret]

Well if the numbers are correct, any surface will no longer have the virus on it and the people who have had it, will have either passed away or recovered. So how will they catch it? Presumably from people who have recovered, however the experts say that can only be for 28 days.

So I assume the only other option is people flying into China who have it.

Don't know, sounds ludicrously optimistic to think a global pandemic which has probably already infected hundreds of thousands is going back in the bottle. It's something we've to live with now, however many surfaces you wipe.

[Zlatan]

however the experts say that can only be for 28 days.

There's a film about 28 days Frank

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0289043/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

[Paul Waine]

Article in Times which is based on Lancet report (I've not seen Lancet) says men with high blood pressure are most at risk. Connection to ACE receptors - which I don't claim to understand - and people taking ACE inhibitors.

I'm sure further research will make more sense of everything.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Well I was Slagged off for quoting information on here regards the games being played behind closed doors by my own personal "Cuban" Troll. It now appears games "could"
be called off altogether.but I won't speculate. Whatever the situation shopping/Travelling anywhere could be problematic.

Absolutely. Your prediction was mild in the grand scheme of things. All games abandoned seems extreme but likely.

[Jakubclaret]

The age profile of those passengers would be a key factor.

It would be, also bearing in mind people on a cruise ship are less likely to be suffering stress or anxiety most other environments wouldn't be offering, so it's fair to say outside of a calm relaxed environment, the stress, racing heart & blood pressure ect would be significantly higher increasing the numbers, you don't tend to get stressed out on cruise ship the whole idea is to relax in a once in a lifetime holiday.

[Gordaleman]

Article in Times which is based on Lancet report (I've not seen Lancet) says men with high blood pressure are most at risk. Connection to ACE receptors - which I don't claim to understand - and people taking ACE inhibitors.

I'm sure further research will make more sense of everything.

One of the problems with ACE inhibitors is that they give about 1 in 10 users a dry cough. At the moment, that could suggest that someone has contracted Covid-19 when they haven't.

[tiger76]

I was thinking the same Crosspool. There's no doubt China and Italy's 'lockdown' works. But only while it's on. Once they go back to work, why won't it spread again to everyone who hasn't had it?

Remember, it only needed one fella eating a bat to start it the first time. There's no way they're going to stop it from starting off again once the country is up and running.

The doom mongers and those frenziedly panicking just haven't accepted it yet. There isn't a good solution, we've just got to take it on the chin and deal with it, either now or whenever you choose to lift your lockdown. We're not accustomed to that in the modern world but there you go.

That's why the UK government response has been measured,you can't keep the nation on lockdown indefinitely,and if the peak of this outbreak isn't due for another 3/4 months,then people that can work should carry on as normal well talking sensible precautions.

And that doesn't take into account the economic and social impact a complete lockdown would probably have,the hope for the medics is that if a large number of the population get this virus they will build immunity to future outbreaks,and this should hopefully reduce the strain on the emergency services.

For most people this illness will be relatively mild,but clearly priority needs to be given to the elderly and people with underlying health issues.

[tim_noone]

Absolutely. Your prediction was mild in the grand scheme of things. All games abandoned seems extreme but likely.

Yes well playing behind closed doors was gonna be the preferred option quoted by News Agencies etc. I was only bringing it to the Boards attention Msg. Board that is. It now looks to be a step further and Football "could" be called off full stop. But I won't making any more statements on the subject now.safe to say I'll keep my eyes open for the health secretaries spokesman Gordleman? Who resides on here.

[Gordaleman]

EFL suspends matches until 3rd April.

[Gordaleman]

Yes well playing behind closed doors was gonna be the preferred option quoted by News Agencies etc. I was only bringing it to the Boards attention Msg. Board that is. It now looks to be a step further and Football "could" be called off full stop. But I won't making any more statements on the subject now.safe to say I'll keep my eyes open for the health secretaries spokesman Gordleman? Who resides on here.

You obviously prefer the rumour mill to what the Health Secretary says. That's really sad.

[cricketfieldclarets]

You obviously prefer the rumour mill to what the Health Secretary says. That's really sad.

Gordon.

What tim predicted was an almost inevitable but best case scenario.

As it happens things are far worse than he predicted.

[thatdberight]

Some people are selective in which experts they like to believe...

[Gordaleman]

Gordon.

What tim predicted was an almost inevitable but best case scenario.

As it happens things are far worse than he predicted.

Who's Gordon?

[Lowbankclaret]

So, if China are in 'lock down' for 52 days, when they do come out to start working again...

1. Those who had it will have either recovered or passed away.
2. Any surface that had the virus on it, will no longer.
3. Those who have recovered won't be able to pass it on to someone who hasn't yet had it.

But as you mention Zlatan, one would think the scientists will already know all of this. But maybe that's why China are doing what they are doing. And why Social Distancing + washing hands / not touching face, as simple as it sounds, is possibly the best method going forward.

Agreed, but there are anomalies in the data, which could provide help to slowing this down without shutdown.

I have used Taiwan before as an example , they suffered badly from SARS and were determined to be ready the next time. A couple of weeks ago both then and us had about 40 cases.
They implemented compulsory mask wearing when out side, sanitizer virtually everywhere. The author of the article said if you entered a cafe, you had your temp checked and a squirt of hand sanitizer before you could sit down.

Their figures have grown to 50 whilst ours has grown to 590.

Now there are other factors and it was pointed out it’s a smaller country but it’s still 24 million people.

Personally I have ordered some masks and will be going to pick them up in the next hour. Screwfix appear to be running out quickly though.

[Gordaleman]

EFL and PL confirmed as suspended until April 3rd at least.

[tim_noone]

You obviously prefer the rumour mill to what the Health Secretary says. That's really sad.

Not really...you quoted the health minister I Quoted the news Agencies.is football now called off? Its not a competition but if you want to be seen as right all the time that's fine.

[Gordaleman]

Not really...you quoted the health minister I Quoted the news Agencies.is football now called off? Its not a competition but if you want to be seen as right all the time that's fine.

Yes, football is now called off and that's no great surprise. However, it was only called off in the last few minutes, not earlier in the week as some reported on here.

[tim_noone]

Who's Gordon?

Gordon my fellow poster is a moron.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Yes, football is now called off and that's no great surprise. However, it was only called off in the last few minutes, not earlier in the week as some reported on here.

Predicted earlier in the week. Not confirmed.

[Lowbankclaret]

There is some logic in it, I think! If the experts are expecting upwards of 60-80% of the population to get this then there is actually nothing that anyone can do to stop 60--80% of people getting it. I know I have contested this previously, but that was only in relation to the inaccurate rates people were quoting.

If you then go on to assume that that amount of the population will get it, you'll want to minimise the impact to the population you want to flatten the curve...
Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v3.gif

Only by flattening the curve can the NHS cope with the more serious cases and increase the chances of reducing deaths.

Each country has a different approach, in Italy they've shut down - thats their choice - it may be right it may be wrong. However if you accept that the same 60-80% in Italy will eventually get it then you have to accept that you cant stop it either way. The different approach in Italy is because they are "ahead of our curve". We may well shut down like Italy (it's actually quite likely) but the main reason to delay is to flatten the curve.

Now onto death rates - the problem I have consistently stated that quoting current death rates is disingenuous because the denominator is not actually known (I have tried to explain is many ways on here). Only when it's all done and dusted will we have a better idea, but I do KNOW that the denominator quoted in death rates will always be a lower value than reality because it is. The order of magnitude of this variance is what people just dont currently know, I used SK as an example of a more accurate (not right!) value because they are systematically testing a lot of people so they are catching those who would normally not be tested and go under the radar in our country - i.e. Joe Bloggs has a snuffle, self isolates for a week then carries on. His data is not recorded at all in terms of the official data, but he will be included in the 60-80% estimate.

I am not going to estimate numbers of deaths, because it is disingenuous to do so. However this will affect the elderly and those with specific health conditions - as Boris stated some will die earlier than they should have, but it still is not Armageddon.

I am just off out to get my masks, I did explain this on this thread before.
It was explained to me by the geek gamer I know. Apparently in the game Plague you are attempting to overload the services by increasing the peak and developing a virus that you cannot spread over time.
He knew this a few weeks ago from the game.
So yes I agree there is logic to it, let’s hope the model they are using works out to be true.

[Zlatan]

Who's Gordon?

Gordon my fellow poster is a moron.

brilliant riposte...

Now, can we all start to get along a bit better - we're all Clarets after all

[Gordaleman]

brilliant riposte...

Now, can we all start to get along a bit better - we're all Clarets after all

I've still no idea who this Gordon is though.

[tim_noone]

Yes, football is now called off and that's no great surprise. However, it was only called off in the last few minutes, not earlier in the week as some reported on here.

By The Health minister??you quoted earlier in the week by any chance.as reported by you on here also.

[Gordaleman]

Predicted earlier in the week. Not confirmed.

Wrong. It was reported as definite in a now discredited and removed thread.

[Zlatan]

I've still no idea who this Gordon is though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTKORcr1jhY

[tim_noone]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTKORcr1jhY

I'll listen to that later. Cheered me up.

[Bfcboyo]

Predicted earlier in the week. Not confirmed.

For those in the know it was as good as confirmed.

[Gordaleman]

By The Health minister??you quoted earlier in the week by any chance.as reported by you on here also.

I reported that the Health Minister said that football would not be suspended "At this time." But that things could change in the future. The fact that it has now been suspended has nothing to do with government policy on this virus. It has been suspended purely because of infections within clubs. If you don't understand the difference, I can't help it.

[Gordaleman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTKORcr1jhY

Thanks Zlatan, that was really helpful to the debate. I thought you were a serious poster?

[tim_noone]

Wrong. It was reported as definite in a now discredited and removed thread.

Wrong.....So you now believe CT along with the health minister.the story had substance ridiculed by yourself a Very Argumentetive man.

[Zlatan]

Thanks Zlatan, that was really helpful to the debate. I thought you were a serious poster?

I am a serious poster - and I have demonstrated that by explaining who Gordon is, as requested. Nothing was meant to be inferred by my post, so I apologise if you took offence, I merely pointed out the popular culture info regarding the phrase "Gordon is a Moron" and it's reference to the song - purely from an educational perspective.

[Gordaleman]

I am a serious poster - and I have demonstrated that by explaining who Gordon is, as requested. Nothing was meant to be inferred by my post, so I apologise if you took offence, I merely pointed out the popular culture info regarding the phrase "Gordon is a Moron" and it's reference to the song - purely from an educational perspective.

Fair enough. It's just that the clowns on here who can't differentiate between fact and assumption won't see it that way.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Fair enough. It's just that the clowns on here who can't differentiate between fact and assumption won't see it that way.

Absolutely. But I’m sure you will one day.

[Gordaleman]

This seems to make a lot of sense.

'Behave like you already have the virus'
An infectious disease expert says people shouldn't just try to avoid getting coronavirus - instead, they should act as though they already have the virus and want to avoid passing it on.

Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said this during an interview with BBC Newsnight last night when asked if there was a "simple message" he could give the public.

His response was: "Most people have a fear of acquiring the virus, but I think a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus, and change your behaviour so that you're not transmitting it.

"Don't think about changing your behaviour so you won't get it. Think about changing your behaviour so you don't give it to somebody else."

[Steve1956]

Yes well playing behind closed doors was gonna be the preferred option quoted by News Agencies etc. I was only bringing it to the Boards attention Msg. Board that is. It now looks to be a step further and Football "could" be called off full stop. But I won't making any more statements on the subject now.safe to say I'll keep my eyes open for the health secretaries spokesman Gordleman? Who resides on here.

Just had to log back on to like that one

[tim_noone]

Wrong. It was reported as definite in a now discredited and removed thread.

Brows the post at your leisure. No way is definite quoted.my OP references the word marvelous.and for someone calling a fellow poster a bullsh!tter from the off... and questioning whether I knew what a cobra meeting was with Laughing emojis...really smacks of Hypocrisy with your "outrage" at being Labled "Gordon" you really are a sensitive soul.

[tim_noone]

Just had to log back on to like that one

Boss wont like that.