Covid-19

[Grumps]

I’m struggling to think why our figure is so much higher than the rest, especially if we have been leading the fight in Europe and we have the best approach...

I don't go digging deep into the Internet for reports or links.
But every report I've seen in the press, or on tv, when discussing the international figures, always state that different countries report in different ways. I've no links, no agenda, just stating why the figures may vary.

[Grumps]

Theres been some good discussion on all sides of the debate just ruined by people wanting to disrupt and distract or maybe they genuinely dont realise how debilitating they are being to the overall discussion

Again I know its hard and I struggle with it but if we only engage with people debating positively (which are the majority) the other posts will just disappear down the thread with no impact

It also stops us having a go at people and ending up looking the bad guys

Anyhow here's to some good serious debate

I enjoy debate.
What I don't enjoy is the name calling, and ganging up on posters who don't agree with you.
I doubt it's possible to bully anonymous people, but you, and others congratulating the poster who called me a Nazi, and all the back slapping and offering of drinks because he'd insulted, and got rid of me, is certainly how bullies behave.

I've no intention of commenting any further on the issue, I don't want to spoil the thread for others and needing Tony to lock it.

[Devils_Advocate]

I enjoy debate.
What I don't enjoy is the name calling, and ganging up on posters who don't agree with you.
I doubt it's possible to bully anonymous people, but you, and others congratulating the poster who called me a Nazi, and all the back slapping and offering of drinks because he'd insulted, and got rid of me, is certainly how bullies behave.

I've no intention of commenting any further on the issue, I don't want to spoil the thread for others and needing Tony to lock it.

I didn't see the original post calling you a Nazi and I definitely didnt congratulate it so maybe be careful what you say about other people

My last few posts have been trying to find a good way forward without bickering and name calling and said that everyone making a positive contribution should be respected and is a valid part of the discussion who should be engaged with

I'll leave it here because I don't want to argue and I will just ignore people where I believe they are arguing in bad faith.

The only time I'll stick my oar in is if I see a discussion descending in to bickering and encourage people to stop it and I hope people do the same to me as I enjoy these kind of threads

[TVC15]

Never thought I’d miss debating football with KRBFC - but I do !!
Feels so much easier sticking up for Jeff Hendrick than debating with people trying to defend 50,000 deaths.

Anyway I get the hint - that’s me off here for a while.

[Grumps]

I didn't see the original post calling you a Nazi and I definitely didnt congratulate it so maybe be careful what you say about other people

My last few posts have been trying to find a good way forward without bickering and name calling and said that everyone making a positive contribution should be respected and is a valid part of the discussion who should be engaged with

I'll leave it here because I don't want to argue and I will just ignore people where I believe they are arguing in bad faith.

The only time I'll stick my oar in is if I see a discussion descending in to bickering and encourage people to stop it and I hope people do the same to me as I enjoy these kind of threads

Clapping emoji?

[AndrewJB]

So it doesn't play by the rules which makes it certain that it will do what you expect it to? That's a bit contradictory, isn't it?

One thing we can say for sure about viruses is the more we allow them to exist, the more likely they’ll develop a more deadly strain.

[tiger76]

Sorry to blight the positive story with this post. There's just no way we should be relaxing the rules.

Deaths yesterday across Europe:

Spain 2
Italy 87
Germany 24
France 52
Turkey 28
Belgium 42
Sweden 84
Portugal 14
Ireland 6
Poland 13
Romania 13
Hungary 8
Netherlands 28

UK 324

Blimey i didn't realise the difference was so stark,as sad as every death is it's more the fact that the R rate is remaining stubbornly high that concerns me, and that's with the lockdown in force.

To put this into perspective I've just been speaking to my neighbour who's an NHS nurse and he said initially he was working on a covid free ward and it was OK, however he soon got moved to a ward with confirmed covid cases, and all he was issued with was a pair of gloves and a mask with a gaping hole in it, and he was expected to work on that ward for several hours, is it any wonder he's disillusioned with the government.

He also mentioned that the families of NHS staff have been offered hush money(his words not mine) in the event of them dying in service 30k was the figure mentioned, and he's adamant that the NHS trusts will attempt to bring manslaughter claims against the UK government once all this is over, so if i was a UK minister i wouldn't get too comfortable in your post.

Now regarding those numbers let's say there's unaccounted deaths and double them to be generous,they're still roughly half what the UK figure is, i'd say we're 2-3 weeks early in lifting lockdown measures, the coming weeks will tell who's right or wrong, but in a health crisis i'd always err on the side of caution.

A recent YouGov poll doesn't make good reading for Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon is vindicated in her strategy thoughhttps://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-p ... 9643.html

[taio]

Blimey i didn't realise the difference was so stark,as sad as every death is it's more the fact that the R rate is remaining stubbornly high that concerns me, and that's with the lockdown in force.

To put this into perspective I've just been speaking to my neighbour who's an NHS nurse and he said initially he was working on a covid free ward and it was OK, however he soon got moved to a ward with confirmed covid cases, and all he was issued with was a pair of gloves and a mask with a gaping hole in it, and he was expected to work on that ward for several hours, is it any wonder he's disillusioned with the government.

He also mentioned that the families of NHS staff have been offered hush money(his words not mine) in the event of them dying in service 30k was the figure mentioned, and he's adamant that the NHS trusts will attempt to bring manslaughter claims against the UK government once all this is over, so if i was a UK minister i wouldn't get too comfortable in your post.

Now regarding those numbers let's say there's unaccounted deaths and double them to be generous,they're still roughly half what the UK figure is, i'd say we're 2-3 weeks early in lifting lockdown measures, the coming weeks will tell who's right or wrong, but in a health crisis i'd always err on the side of caution.

A recent YouGov poll doesn't make good reading for Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon is vindicated in her strategy thoughhttps://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-p ... 9643.html

Which Trust does your neighbour work for?

[tiger76]

Which Trust does your neighbour work for?

I'm not certain where's he's based but i assume it's somewhere in Glasgow, and yes i'm well aware that this issue is devolved i'm just stating the viewpoint as he sees it.

[Grumps]

I'm not certain where's he's based but i assume it's somewhere in Glasgow, and yes i'm well aware that this issue is devolved i'm just stating the viewpoint as he sees it.

For balance.... I know local NHS workers and this has never been mentioned, and seems like fantasy to me ( not you reporting it, but them saying it)

[Zlatan]

Compensation for NHS staff is not news, announced a month ago. I do believe there are clauses to prevent litigation in the acceptance of the “award”, ergo “hush money” in some regard.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52445444

[tiger76]

For balance.... I know local NHS workers and this has never been mentioned, and seems like fantasy to me ( not you reporting it, but them saying it)

I can only surmise he's referring to this document http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/cl ... 7.article

As i say he was the one who called it "hush" money. Some people would say compensation payment.

[tiger76]

Compensation for NHS staff is not news, announced a month ago. I do believe there are clauses to prevent litigation in the acceptance of the “award”, ergo “hush money” in some regard.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52445444

Yes but his words show the depth of feeling among some NHS staff, and let's be honest 60k isn't a lot if you've got a wife and young children as he has.

I'm sure they'd rather the government got them the correct PPE for them to do their job to the highest standards. They'll be well aware that their job entails an element of risk, but that risk should be decreased as much as possible.

[bfcjg]

My concern is the death rate remains stubbornly high, ok we have a bigger population then lost of the countries on the list but none the less the percentage is high.
Re Sturgeon v Johnson she hasn't done much different to us or the Welsh but she can take a more rigid stance with lockdown as the English tax payer subsidised them more then the other home nations.
She isnt that squeaky clean.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/184 ... -outbreak/
But as she is so anti English Scottish people fall for the old saying my enemies enemy is my friend.
Also let's face it Owen Coyle would beat Johnson in a poll on competence.

[dsr]

Another one bought into the cult of Johnson, his own advisor couldn’t follow government advice

Cummings possibly breached the rules so that the number of children moving about the country went from 1,000,000 to 1,000,001 (estimated figures). I can't get too excited about that.

Using terms like "baboon" for someone who did follow the rules and the guidelines because and stood to lose a lot of money if they didn't follow the rules, is a different order of seriousness. It's a big ask to expect someone to cancel a holiday when the governments (UK and Spain) say it's all right but an anonymous person on a message board says its not. Few people would do it.

[Zlatan]

Yes but his words show the depth of feeling among some NHS staff, and let's be honest 60k isn't a lot if you've got a wife and young children as he has.

I'm sure they'd rather the government got them the correct PPE for them to do their job to the highest standards. They'll be well aware that their job entails an element of risk, but that risk should be decreased as much as possible.

I agree, just being measured with my words as when I say how I feel others take offence

[Paul Waine]

Compensation for NHS staff is not news, announced a month ago. I do believe there are clauses to prevent litigation in the acceptance of the “award”, ergo “hush money” in some regard.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52445444

Hi Zlatan, as I remember this report, the £60,000 death in service benefit was extended to NHS workers who weren't on the standard employment contracts. The standard NHS employees always had £60,000 death in service benefit as part of their standard employment contract. I use the term "death in service" because it was paid to their beneficiary if the employee died, whatever the cause of death and whether they were at work, at home or elsewhere on holiday. Before the death in service benefit was extended, as I understand, it didn't apply to agency staff or to ex-NHS staff who had retired on their pension and had returned to work to assist with covid-19.

I'm not a lawyer. I don't think the payment of £60,000 death in service benefit has got anything at all to do with potential responsibility of the employer for actions (or inactions) that contributed to or causes the death of the staff member.

[tiger76]

My concern is the death rate remains stubbornly high, ok we have a bigger population then lost of the countries on the list but none the less the percentage is high.
Re Sturgeon v Johnson she hasn't done much different to us or the Welsh but she can take a more rigid stance with lockdown as the English tax payer subsidised them more then the other home nations.
She isnt that squeaky clean.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/184 ... -outbreak/
But as she is so anti English Scottish people fall for the old saying my enemies enemy is my friend.
Also let's face it Owen Coyle would beat Johnson in a poll on competence.

Yes the death rate isn't dropping there was a period of 3-4 days when it appeared to be, but then it's crept up again, the comparable European countries in my view would be France, Germany, Italy and Spain they're roughly around the UK population wise, and yet we appear to be struggling to get a grip from our peak, whereas those 4 all have, what's worrying is if we can't get a grip during lockdown then what'll occur when lockdown is slowly eased.

Sturgeon-Johnson it shouldn't surprise anybody that more Scots trust her rather than Boris, yes i'm well aware of the Nike story, and it's been debated at length in the SP, there's also other areas where there's been failings,But TBF to NS she addressed this a few days ago and admitted that her government has made mistakes. The problem with Boris Johnson and the Conservatives is when they're questioned on aspects of this crisis they go all defensive, and don't address the issues and explain what they could have done better, Boris Johnson is a godsend to Scottish independence supporters as you'd expect, but even in Scottish Tory circles he doesn't command the respect you';d expect, hence why many north of the border are attempting to distance themselves from WM ahead of elections up here next year, that';s the difference for Jackson Carlaw and the Scottish Conservatives, they don't have the luxury of at least another 4 years before facing the electorate.

[Grumps]

Cummings possibly breached the rules so that the number of children moving about the country went from 1,000,000 to 1,000,001 (estimated figures). I can't get too excited about that.

Using terms like "baboon" for someone who did follow the rules and the guidelines because and stood to lose a lot of money if they didn't follow the rules, is a different order of seriousness. It's a big ask to expect someone to cancel a holiday when the governments (UK and Spain) say it's all right but an anonymous person on a message board says its not. Few people would do it.

Baboon is not the worst he's called me
If only he'd be as good with his facts as insults he'd be fine
The whole discussion started when he said the borders should have been closed around March 1st, not quarantined, but shut.
I explained that would have caused untold harm to the thousands, if not millions who were already abroad, including myself.
He turned that into me going for a last minute cheap march holiday, resulting in the tax payer paying for repatriation. Neither of which is close to the truth
He then shows amazement when I comment on his daily raising of the subject.
If that makes me a baboon, so be it. I've been called worse

[Paul Waine]

I'm not certain where's he's based but i assume it's somewhere in Glasgow, and yes i'm well aware that this issue is devolved i'm just stating the viewpoint as he sees it.

If the NHS worker you know is in Glasgow and health is devolved responsibility of Scottish government, isn't the Scottish gov't responsible for the NHS in Scotland?

Similarly, health is devolved to Wales (and N.Ireland).

I'm pretty sure that's why we get Westminster Gov't reporting figures for Public Health England as well as totals for all UK.

[joey13]

Cummings possibly breached the rules so that the number of children moving about the country went from 1,000,000 to 1,000,001 (estimated figures). I can't get too excited about that.

Using terms like "baboon" for someone who did follow the rules and the guidelines because and stood to lose a lot of money if they didn't follow the rules, is a different order of seriousness. It's a big ask to expect someone to cancel a holiday when the governments (UK and Spain) say it's all right but an anonymous person on a message board says its not. Few people would do it.

Sorry you’ve lost me , I haven’t called any a baboon or advised anyone to cancel a holiday

[tiger76]

If the NHS worker you know is in Glasgow and health is devolved responsibility of Scottish government, isn't the Scottish gov't responsible for the NHS in Scotland?

Similarly, health is devolved to Wales (and N.Ireland).

I'm pretty sure that's why we get Westminster Gov't reporting figures for Public Health England as well as totals for all UK.

Yes that's all correct i did mention this fact in my earlier post it was he who distinctly stated WM government in his accusation.

Health has been devolved since the creation of the modern Scottish Parliament in 1999,now it could be he was confused he did have 2 toddlers in tow running around mad during our brief chat.

Either way it's possible that down the track both Westminster and the devolved administrations could be facing civil cases at the very least for their handling of this crisis.

We may have to wait and see what the inevitable public inquiries throw up.

[Mala591]

If someone catches the virus between 4 and 5pm in a supermarket on a particular day how are contacts traced if that person didn't have a phone (nor did 20% of other shoppers) ?

[jackmiggins]

You’ve certainly latched on to the phrase I used about ‘banging on’ about this - try one of your own. Don’t think anyone advised these people to venture abroad on planes, but common sense would tell a baboon that it wasn’t a terribly good idea. Have a good party.

Didn’t actually call anyone a Baboon, as you can see. Usual tactics of detracting from the actual message of the post.
Very simply, most other countries suspended flights very early - I note the government is referring to Denmark’s success in reopening schools - wonder why? Might be something to do with limiting viral entry?

[Grumps]

If someone catches the virus between 4 and 5pm in a supermarket on a particular day how are contacts traced if that person didn't have a phone (nor did 20% of other shoppers) ?

They'd only need to be contacted if they'd been less than 2m, for over 15mins...i don't think they expect that to happen much in a supermarket

[jackmiggins]

Which is a joke in itself - 15 minutes?? - only takes a fraction off a second - imo.

[Zlatan]

Which is a joke in itself - 15 minutes?? - only takes a fraction off a second - imo.

The 15 minutes comes from an extensive scientific study carried out at a castle somewhere in the UK

with cake...

and certainly no walking about...

[CombatClaret]

Yes the death rate isn't dropping there was a period of 3-4 days when it appeared to be, but then it's crept up again, the comparable European countries in my view would be France, Germany, Italy and Spain they're roughly around the UK population wise, and yet we appear to be struggling to get a grip from our peak, whereas those 4 all have, what's worrying is if we can't get a grip during lockdown then what'll occur when lockdown is slowly eased.

I would suggest it's because compared to those countries we didn't even have a lockdown, we had a tv & poster campaign at best which the selfish, the thick and turns out the posh (file under selfish) seem to have ignored.

[tiger76]

They'd only need to be contacted if they'd been less than 2m, for over 15mins...i don't think they expect that to happen much in a supermarket

Hence the need for social distancing, and spending as short a time as possible in places such as supermarkets. Now this should be obvious to most people,it's been drummed into our psyche for the past 3 months, if people still don't understand it then i give up.

[Grumps]

Hence the need for social distancing, and spending as short a time as possible in places such as supermarkets. Now this should be obvious to most people,it's been drummed into our psyche for the past 3 months, if people still don't understand it then i give up.

Yep.

[tiger76]

I would suggest it's because compared to those countries we didn't even have a lockdown, we had a tv & poster campaign at best which the selfish, the thick and turns out the posh (file under selfish) seem to have ignored.

We had a half-baked lockdown, and even that wasn't strictly enforced, and now it's being lifted far too early for many in the scientific field.

Hell what do they know their only experts and we've had enough of experts.

[Devils_Advocate]

Which is a joke in itself - 15 minutes?? - only takes a fraction off a second - imo.

2m and 15 min are the same principles used by Germany where it has been a great success. It doesn't sound logical to me but the studies and the live examples suggest this is the right model so im happy.

The challenge is getting the infrastructure in place, getting the process operational at scale and for the people to be compliant and supportive of it.

I was very against the app they were creating but in principle this sounds like a really good plan and step forward

[TheFamilyCat]

Have I missed something, or is our "world beating" track and trace system just a call centre?

[Devils_Advocate]

Have I missed something, or is our "world beating" track and trace system just a call centre?

Not sure how far we have got with our system but if you want a better understanding what is involved should we get it to where the govt want then I think this is a decent read

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germ ... 4e671f55ba

[jackmiggins]

2m and 15 min are the same principles used by Germany where it has been a great success. It doesn't sound logical to me but the studies and the live examples suggest this is the right model so im happy.

The challenge is getting the infrastructure in place, getting the process operational at scale and for the people to be compliant and supportive of it.

I was very against the app they were creating but in principle this sounds like a really good plan and step forward

Successfully carried out due to the extremely low levels of virus probably. If you’re happy, fair enough - I’m not.

[Grumps]

Not sure how far we have got with our system but if you want a better understanding what is involved should we get it to where the govt want then I think this is a decent read

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germ ... 4e671f55ba

Our system has been running for many years, successfully, used for food poisoning outbreaks, meningitis outbreaks to name two.

[Zlatan]

Our system has been running for many years, successfully, used for food poisoning outbreaks, meningitis outbreaks to name two.

Just not available in February 2020 for some reason

[Devils_Advocate]

Our system has been running for many years, successfully, used for food poisoning outbreaks, meningitis outbreaks to name two.

Not anywhere near the operational level needed for Covid and there lies the challenge. Just to clarify by system I wasn't talking about the technology but the whole end to end process

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Have I missed something, or is our "world beating" track and trace system just a call centre?

Never mind world beating something that actually works will be a start.

[Grumps]

Just not available in February 2020 for some reason

Take it up with Mr vam tam, he must be wrong.

[FactualFrank]

Have I missed something, or is our "world beating" track and trace system just a call centre?

I'll start to worry when they call it a 'game changer'.

[Grumps]

Have I missed something, or is our "world beating" track and trace system just a call centre?

Part of it is, to ring people up...

[paulatky]

I havent posted here in a while as it has continued to be a political thread with much petty bickering and the usual suspects posting a lot but not really saying anything.

I have as always attempted to post my opinions based on logic and what I genuinely believe.

I saw a league table of the estimated R rate this morning by area.

Within the UK the lowest place was now London with an estimated R of 0.4.

At 1st glance I found that hard to believe as at its peak London had the most deaths per capita.
It is estimated that between 15-20% of Londoners have had the virus but that still leaves 7.5m to go at.

The 15-20% infected is also quoted for New York City, Sweden, and Lombardy region of Italy and the R rate has also dropped there despite the easing of lockdown.

It appears to me that once the infected reaches 20% the virus hits a brick wall in its ability to spread,

Herd immunity had always thought to be at least 60.% of the population with antibodies for that strategy to be effective.

I am just wondering if by getting colds over the years roughly half the population has built up antibodies to covid-19 which dont show up on any tests.

Just an idea to explain why London is doing so well despite the tube overcrowding and crowds not social distancing in parks etc.

Could be very good news and help us get back to near normal quicker than expected.

Sorry that this comes across as a positive post. !!

[Grumps]

I read this morning something along those lines re the cold virus and antibodies, but don't have a link so I'd better not say more.
Hope it's right

[tiger76]

I havent posted here in a while as it has continued to be a political thread with much petty bickering and the usual suspects posting a lot but not really saying anything.

I have as always attempted to post my opinions based on logic and what I genuinely believe.

I saw a league table of the estimated R rate this morning by area.

Within the UK the lowest place was now London with an estimated R of 0.4.

At 1st glance I found that hard to believe as at its peak London had the most deaths per capita.
It is estimated that between 15-20% of Londoners have had the virus but that still leaves 7.5m to go at.

The 15-20% infected is also quoted for New York City, Sweden, and Lombardy region of Italy and the R rate has also dropped there despite the easing of lockdown.

It appears to me that once the infected reaches 20% the virus hits a brick wall in its ability to spread,

Herd immunity had always thought to be at least 60.% of the population with antibodies for that strategy to be effective.

I am just wondering if by getting colds over the years roughly half the population has built up antibodies to covid-19 which dont show up on any tests.

Just an idea to explain why London is doing so well despite the tube overcrowding and crowds not social distancing in parks etc.

Could be very good news and help us get back to near normal quicker than expected.

Sorry that this comes across as a positive post. !!

Positive posts are allowed on here, unfortunately until a reliable anti-body test becomes widely available, we won't know how much spread there's been, so until such time we'll have to err on the side of caution, but if your analysis is anywhere near correct we might escape a 2nd wave, and covid might burn out naturally, of course the other factor that's unknown is can people be reinfected that's the critical and if they can, can they absorb the virus easier a 2nd time, and therefore find it easier to recover.

I do admire your positive outlook and we need to try and maintain our optimism in these trying times.

[martin_p]

Our system has been running for many years, successfully, used for food poisoning outbreaks, meningitis outbreaks to name two.

Both things very unlike coronavirus.

[Zlatan]

Take it up with Mr vam tam, he must be wrong.

I don’t understand the relevance?

Everything he has stated during this has been spot on, especially today.

[Grumps]

Both things very unlike coronavirus.

The systems the same, apart from the app, and that will only account for around 15% of alerts when up and running

[Grumps]

I don’t understand the relevance?

Everything he has stated during this has been spot on, especially today.

Because he's the one who said the system had been up and running for years, minus the app, obviously

[Zlatan]

Because he's the one who said the system had been up and running for years, minus the app, obviously

Ah yes, obviously. Apologies, I missed the part where we had been using it for months since the outbreak started