Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:48 pm
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboard/
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboard/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45071
Are you online 24 hours a day? Considering you once said you had similar views to me, you often come over as a right tw*t.thatdberight wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:37 pmIt must have been a very quick glance not to spot it.
Still, much better to rely on an old lady than the now multiple sources you've been given showing your numbers to be, yet again, way off.
The bickering on here has been rising exponentially quicker than the number of panic stories in the newspapersFactualFrank wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:06 pmThis thread has been 90% bickering.
Can't you just add each other to the ignore list, rather than make us all suffer having to read it.
I'll take that as a compliment. We are multiple entities manning the post 24/7, by the way.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:48 pmAre you online 24 hours a day? Considering you once said you had similar views to me, you often come over as a right tw*t.
By the way, I inadvertently 'Liked' your post when I intented to quote it.
Don't care what Pete Townshend thinks.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:58 pmAt the moment WHO says there are 23,000 active cases in China.
We are legion.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:58 pmNo, I'm not online 24 hours a day. I use this forum on a computer that is permanently switched on, that's all.
As to the figures you post, that's an entirely different set of figures to those posted earlier about the 1989 flu virus. Which set is right, I don't know.
Either way, I'm still not worried.
People are still quoting 80,000 cases in China, even though about 55,000 have fully recovered and are no longer infected. Why? At the moment WHO says there are 23,000 active cases in China.
Oh, so if I had Flu 15 years ago I still count in this years Flu figures eh?thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:07 amWe are legion.
There were no other figures posted about the 1989 virus - or if they were they were just posted with no source.
You've been given three credible media sources and one primary scientific report and still you "don't know what to believe". Because you just like to believe whatever random nonsense comes into your head - or what an old lady told you.
I presume the 3,000 who've died in China still count or do they not count because they were in the past as well? That's pretty good news - that means that, as of now, nobody who's still alive has died.
And so, yet again, you quietly move on from the erroneous information you were coming out with only a few minutes ago...Gordaleman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:11 amOh, so if I had Flu 15 years ago I still count in this years Flu figures eh?
The figures being quoted are being quoted as active case, when they clearly are not.
Past my bedtime.
its hard to read much into the fatality rate at the moment. The number of cases is likely vastly underreported as most people will only suffer a mild illness.CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:37 amFor one, it is far more deadly. One reputable site says 3.4% of those infected die, so far (some other sites say 1%). Flu kills 0.1%. Even if Covid-19 rate comes down it will still be more.
There'll definitely be some of that but as the science continues to develop there seems less reliance on that. There are, of course, other views among credible scientists but the WHO report this week suggested not so much.deanothedino wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:40 amits hard to read much into the fatality rate at the moment. The number of cases is likely vastly underreported as most people will only suffer a mild illness.
People can repeat and repeat its only like flu, however I suggest your ignoring the actual data that’s out there.Greeny wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:30 pmThe world has gone absolutely bonkers. It’s a newer version of flu for goodness sake. Coronavirus affects the same age group as ordinary flu. I have no idea why “Don’t Panic, Don’t Panic” Captain Mainwaring from Dad’s Army has been let loose to become editor of all the newspapers + hosting all tv + radio stations. Get a grip.
Just read the figures from Italy and take them in,
I agree it’s too late to stop it or make it go away.thelaughingclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:26 pmIt’s a miracle we all survived swine flu. That was meant to kill most of us off wasn’t it?
This is flu, maybe it’s a bad flu but it’s still flu and a new flu no one on earth before a month or 2 ago had ever had and therefore no one is immune to it so of course it will have a higher infection and death rate. Human history has had influenza pandemics throughout history. The virus is out there now, it’s too late to stop it and make it go away. It’s in nearly every country on Earth now for crying out loud. It can not be stopped. We just have to carry on and hope you don’t get it, just the same as we have been doing our whole lives already in regards to normal flu and all other diseases you can get. What happened to put British way of getting in with life no matter what was thrown our way?
Quite small out of a population of 60m, no?Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:32 amJust read the figures from Italy and take them in,
455635FB-6CAE-4872-9756-75A72C72F2EA.png
I know you didn't mean to, but you're actually agreeing with memdd2 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:55 pmCrickey Grumps you should be renamed Aesop given your prediction of the high risk of cancer from passive smoking compared with the risks from a virus that spreads easily and for which we have no immunity
The missing factor is what percentage of us do have some immunity to it
But pretty certain I would prefer exposure to passive smoke than this bugger over the next 6 months
Yes I agree.
My issue is that we’re letting the fear of it get out of hand. At the moment, there’s no suggestion that it would affect everybody and there’s no suggestion that already healthy individuals are at risk of dying from it.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:47 amYes I agree.
I have no idea how many people will get infected nor have I claimed anywhere that X amount of people will get it.
China appears to have stalled its infection by simply putting millions of people in isolation in their own houses.
2-3 weeks more of data from Italy and Iran will provide a clearer picture of what’s likely to happen here.
What would you class as a large gathering? Turf moor on match day?deanothedino wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:51 amMy issue is that we’re letting the fear of it get out of hand. At the moment, there’s no suggestion that it would affect everybody and there’s no suggestion that already healthy individuals are at risk of dying from it.
Rather than having everyone in a blind panic, buying all the pasta in the supermarket, we should encourage at risk categories to avoid travel, large gatherings etc. There’s no reason for someone fit and healthy in their 20s, 30s, 40s to significantly change their plans or behaviour at the moment.
I don't disagree but at the moment they're talking about having everyone avoid them...Grumps wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:19 amWhat would you class as a large gathering? Turf moor on match day?
Let's use a pie in the sky example...say 100,000 people have the virus, what do you think the odds are of one of those being at today's game, and then the odds of being close enough to them to catch it off them? More chance of seeing Elvis doing the half time draw...
I completely agree with you on that.deanothedino wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:51 amMy issue is that we’re letting the fear of it get out of hand. At the moment, there’s no suggestion that it would affect everybody and there’s no suggestion that already healthy individuals are at risk of dying from it.
Rather than having everyone in a blind panic, buying all the pasta in the supermarket, we should encourage at risk categories to avoid travel, large gatherings etc. There’s no reason for someone fit and healthy in their 20s, 30s, 40s to significantly change their plans or behaviour at the moment.
Figures for the 1989 UK outbreak of Flu, were quoted on here, but of course could have now been edited out. However, I accept now that the figure of 100,000 deaths was wrong. According the the chart below, it was only 26,000. (Bad enough I think, and far worse than the number of Covid-19 deaths we are likely to get.)thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:07 amWe are legion.
There were no other figures posted about the 1989 virus - or if they were they were just posted with no source.
You've been given three credible media sources and one primary scientific report and still you "don't know what to believe". Because you just like to believe whatever random nonsense comes into your head - or what an old lady told you.
I presume the 3,000 who've died in China still count or do they not count because they were in the past as well? That's pretty good news - that means that, as of now, nobody who's still alive has died.
Yes, a sensible report from a sensible newspaper. It shows that the virus can be controlled with simple precations and it also shows just how badly people are over reacting.Spijed wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:21 amGood article in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -reassured
I read that earlier, but didn't post it as I was expecting someone to start whinging about how they see it as inaccurate.Spijed wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:21 amGood article in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -reassured
I noticed WHO were starting to think there wasn't a large pool of asymptomatic/unrecorded cases. There has been a few anecdotal reports in the media of people, having recovered, saying things like "It wasn't so bad. Probably wouldn't normally have even gone to the doctors with it" so I was becoming increasingly convinced there must be such a pool. As such, the WHO saying there probably wasn't came as a bit of a jolt.thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:48 amThere'll definitely be some of that but as the science continues to develop there seems less reliance on that. There are, of course, other views among credible scientists but the WHO report this week suggested not so much.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... -countries
"A critical unknown is how many mild or asymptomatic cases occur.
...the report notes that so-called fever clinics in Guangdong province screened approximately 320,000 people for COVID-19 and only found 0.14% of them to be positive. “That was really interesting, because we were hoping and maybe expecting to see a large burden of mild and asymptomatic cases,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That piece of data suggests that’s not happening, which would imply that the case fatality risk might be more or less as we currently have.” But Guangdong province was not a heavily affected area, so it is not clear whether the same holds in Hubei province, which was the hardest hit, Rivers cautions."
"We know it can be contained (albeit at considerable cost). China’s draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working."Gordaleman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:29 amYes, a sensible report from a sensible newspaper. It shows that the virus can be controlled with simple precations and it also shows just how badly people are over reacting.
With a death toll so far of less than 4,000 (WHO figuers) and cases falling fast in the worst affected country, (China) I just don't understand how for some reason, some people expect the death toll in this country alone, to be much higher than the existing world total of 4,000.thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:07 am"We know it can be contained (albeit at considerable cost). China’s draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working."
Like you say, simple precautions.
I am not sure if that’s an attempt at humour??thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:07 am"We know it can be contained (albeit at considerable cost). China’s draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working."
Like you say, simple precautions.
I don't have any expectation because it's all too novel. I do believe that a scenario which saw this spreading unchecked is worse than the flu. Your constant references to the flu are meaningless. You've just decided, contrary to the science, that it's no worse than the flu. Perhaps the scientist quoted at length by the "very sensible newspaper" (your view, not mine) is worth reading (Gabriel Leung, chair professor of public health medicine at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control founding director);Gordaleman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:29 amWith a death toll so far of less than 4,000 (WHO figuers) and cases falling fast in the worst affected country, (China) I just don't understand how for some reason, some people expect the death toll in this country alone, to be much higher than the existing world total of 4,000.
Which brings me back to my point about Flu. Flu kills an awful lot of people in this country and there are multiple types of Flu, yet I don't remember any panic over those earlier events.
In 1957 / 58 Asian Flu killed 33,000 in the UK. In 1968 / 69 Hong Kong Flu killed 80,000 people in the UK. In 2009/ 10 Swine Flu killed 457.
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk- ... ent-times/
Do we have any clear reason to suspect that Covid-19 will kill more people than any of the above? Yet no-one panics about Flu and there's no reason to panic about this virus. (Unless your family is unfortunate enough to lose someone.)
Just what axe have you got to grind? I have given good accurate figures from respected people and in none of those scenarios does anything suggest that Covid-19 will kill more than a bad Flu epedemic.thatdberight wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:53 amI don't have any expectation because it's all too novel. I do believe that a scenario which saw this spreading unchecked is worse than the flu. Your constant references to the flu are meaningless. You've just decided, contrary to the science, that it's no worse than the flu. Perhaps the scientist quoted at length by the "very sensible newspaper" (your view, not mine) is worth reading (Gabriel Leung, chair professor of public health medicine at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control founding director);
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... df6d274472
I find this interesting, as I do the reactions of those who will not or cannot take in the latest views of those who are expert. It's neither nothing, nor apocalyptic as best as I, as a layman, can interpret what those experts are saying. Instead, it's serious. So, serious people are taking serious steps to mitigate. With a bit of luck and all the work being done a potentially serious situation will be minimised.
Would have a very serious effect on the economy which will take a long time to recover from.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:31 amI am not sure if that’s an attempt at humour??
The Chinese have shut down completely in the area, one person is allowed out of the house every three days.
Several people on here are claiming we are overreacting, some people in China have not left the house in 5 weeks.
All factories shut, no travel allowed. You need a special licence to drive a car around.
As you say I t’s a very simple plan, not sure it’s going to go down well in the UK.
Should we shut everything thing down? If so, how do you feed people if no one is working in manufacturing and other industries?
Don't expect him to have thought his argument through, just as long as he thinks he's scaring people, but it's not working, I guess 90 percent of this thread is in the keep calm camp.
Keeping calm is the only sensible option. When did panicking ever help anyone?
I hope bertie bee takes you out!Gordaleman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:53 pmI'm going to watch the first half of Arsenal v West Ham. then I'm off to expose myself to 20,000 people on the Turf.
Why, have you planned a 'Sting'?
Just be careful of being hit by an asteroid, more chance of that than catching the virus at turf moor.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:53 pmKeeping calm is the only sensible option. When did panicking ever help anyone?
I'm going to watch the first half of Arsenal v West Ham. then I'm off to expose myself to 20,000 people on the Turf.
I'll wash my hands first though.
Stop talking sensetiger76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:13 pmLatest UK figures
UK cases rise to 206
The UK government says the number of cases in the country is now 206, an increase of 43.
Two patients who tested positive for Covid-19 have so far died in the UK. Both were elderly and had underlying health conditions.
The Department of Health said that as of 07:00 on Saturday morning, more than 21,000 people had been tested for the virus.
Earlier, England's deputy chief medical officer Jennie Harries told the BBC that the UK remained in the "containment" phase of controlling the virus.
Yes the numbers are rising but not at an alarming rate,if those figures are anywhere near accurate,of the people tested less than 1% have tested positive,and the vast majority of those will likely have mild symptoms.
Now if only there was 0 bickering on here and more posts like the above.tiger76 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:13 pmLatest UK figures
UK cases rise to 206
The UK government says the number of cases in the country is now 206, an increase of 43.
Two patients who tested positive for Covid-19 have so far died in the UK. Both were elderly and had underlying health conditions.
The Department of Health said that as of 07:00 on Saturday morning, more than 21,000 people had been tested for the virus.
Earlier, England's deputy chief medical officer Jennie Harries told the BBC that the UK remained in the "containment" phase of controlling the virus.
Yes the numbers are rising but not at an alarming rate,if those figures are anywhere near accurate,of the people tested less than 1% have tested positive,and the vast majority of those will likely have mild symptoms.
I'm merely reposting the info from the Beeb website,now i don't always agree with the BBC,but it's at times like this that their commonsense approach to just reporting the facts and simple medical advice is invaluable.FactualFrank wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:22 pmNow if only there was 0 bickering on here and more posts like the above.
In a sea of bad information, thank goodness you're talking sense. I just checked. c.200 cases of this virus in the last few weeks but 1,873 Brits struck by asteroids and associated debris in the same period.