Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 pm
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboard/
http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboard/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45071
Had the misfortune of skimming the last page on the Boris thread. Quoting the whole post on this more relevant thread to avoid accusations of lack of context.AndrewJB wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:01 pmUntil a few days ago Johnson was willing to let half a million of us die - as per the modelling. That’s why while other countries were putting strict measures in place, we were not. Only when his insouciance became public did Johnson begin to take action. Now we could be well behind the curve.
I think they're the kind of numbers being discussed on pages 1, 2, 3 on this thread.paulatky wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:19 pmThis report confirms the numbers I and Lowbank first posted 3 weeks ago and got ridiculed for.
It also highlights what is the exit plan from lockdown - only way out is a vaccine or herd
immunity.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... =DM1220115
Let’s make something clear, crystal clear. Any ridicule was deserved for posting absolute rubbish at times, and the persistence to continue posting rubbish was also ridiculed. You have, on occasion, posted something interesting and of value, but mostly self serving rubbish.paulatky wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:19 pmThis report confirms the numbers I and Lowbank first posted 3 weeks ago and got ridiculed for.
It also highlights what is the exit plan from lockdown - only way out is a vaccine or herd
immunity.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... =DM1220115
The numbers are big, in a nation of 65 million they’re always going to be big. Births, deaths.. accidents falling off ladders.
Sorry to hear you're not well Zizkov, get well soon! Keep the Czech updates coming, always interesting to hear from another country's point of view.ZizkovClaret wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:55 pmLatest from Czech Republic:
Its now illegal to be out and about without your mouth and nose covered by a mask, scarf, or similar.
Only allowed out for essential reasons like going to work or buying food.
I've been off sick with flu symptoms since early March (Czech sick leave is basically house arrest at the best of times, nevermind now) so to say im climbing the walls is an understatement.
Nothing new there then!Gordaleman wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:56 pmYou make a very good point. I bet doctor's surgeries and NHS help lines are swamped by wimps with a cold.
Yes, you can't beat a considered political point, well made
If we do get away with only 20,000 extra that will be a great result but when myself and Lowbank stated that potentially there could be upto 500,000 it was met with scorn on here.NottsClaret wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:47 pmThe numbers are big, in a nation of 65 million they’re always going to be big. Births, deaths.. accidents falling off ladders.
Last winter around 50,000 more folk than usual died for various reasons. 500,000 die every year. It rarely makes the papers, just old people shuffling off that mortal coil as we will soon enough.
If they do keep it to 20-25,000 with this outbreak, we’ll actually be down on last year due to a milder winter and a general improvement in hygiene causing less deaths from flu, hepatitis, pneumonia etc.
Strange isn’t it. It’ll undoubtedly be remembered for a lifetime but the stats will look odd in years to come. You’d think it was 2019 when the crisis occurred.
What's the outcome going to Be? What's you're gut feeling?Zlatan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 pmIt was met with scorn because you both insisted that you were right but were in fact fundamentally and consistently wrong.
The large figures being quoted previously have always been at the extreme end of the scale, why can’t you just accept that? Also you fail to admit that people who are over 70 with heart defects are likely to die from a bad case of flu, but in this instance are dying from Covid-19 instead.
Only when this is all done and dusted can anyone say “ooh, you know what Andrew, I was right... get me for saying millions will die” and well done and a gold star will be yours along with the pride of being “right”
I still think you’re wrong though
I heard a report on the radio, think it was this morning or maybe Tues: because lots of planes have stopped flying and a lot of industry has stopped pollution levels are down massively. As a result, there will be many times more people who don't die this year because of air pollution, than will die because of covid-19.NottsClaret wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:47 pmThe numbers are big, in a nation of 65 million they’re always going to be big. Births, deaths.. accidents falling off ladders.
Last winter around 50,000 more folk than usual died for various reasons. 500,000 die every year. It rarely makes the papers, just old people shuffling off that mortal coil as we will soon enough.
If they do keep it to 20-25,000 with this outbreak, we’ll actually be down on last year due to a milder winter and a general improvement in hygiene causing less deaths from flu, hepatitis, pneumonia etc.
Strange isn’t it. It’ll undoubtedly be remembered for a lifetime but the stats will look odd in years to come. You’d think it was 2019 when the crisis occurred.
Why would they need troops? It surely can't be difficult, in the circumstances, to find 20,000 young people with driving licences and common sense to drive vans around, willing to get paid and risk coronavirus when the option is be out of work and stop at home. Finding drivers should not be a problem.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:19 pmBBC Newsnight has just said that the government is considering using up to 20,000 troops in a purely logistical role. Transport and communications etc.. Not troops on the streets.
It would be wonderful if through all the ugliness and tragedy of this pandemic, a demonstration of the real value of a cleaner planet focussed minds on environmental and climate concerns. Obviously, such a global shutdown as we're seeing is not at all practical as a solution to the climate crisis, but it might show folks that striving for it is worthwhile if people en masse are become healthier. It might burgeon political will. There are anecdotal stories of Chinese foreign nationals returning to China only to notice the minute they step off the plane that the air smells different.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:01 amI heard a report on the radio, think it was this morning or maybe Tues: because lots of planes have stopped flying and a lot of industry has stopped pollution levels are down massively. As a result, there will be many times more people who don't die this year because of air pollution, than will die because of covid-19.
You only have to read his silly posts....The Army will be used for things 20,000 young people with driving licences aren't trained to deal with......and it's not Logistics. It will be Numbers.dsr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:15 amWhy would they need troops? It surely can't be difficult, in the circumstances, to find 20,000 young people with driving licences and common sense to drive vans around, willing to get paid and risk coronavirus when the option is be out of work and stop at home. Finding drivers should not be a problem.
Lorry drivers would be harder, of course.
Just reporting what was said. Troops are fully trained in communications and if temporary hospials are set up. communications would be needed.dsr wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:15 amWhy would they need troops? It surely can't be difficult, in the circumstances, to find 20,000 young people with driving licences and common sense to drive vans around, willing to get paid and risk coronavirus when the option is be out of work and stop at home. Finding drivers should not be a problem.
Lorry drivers would be harder, of course.
Where were we wrong ?Zlatan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 pmIt was met with scorn because you both insisted that you were right but were in fact fundamentally and consistently wrong.
The large figures being quoted previously have always been at the extreme end of the scale, why can’t you just accept that? Also you fail to admit that people who are over 70 with heart defects are likely to die from a bad case of flu, but in this instance are dying from Covid-19 instead.
Only when this is all done and dusted can anyone say “ooh, you know what Andrew, I was right... get me for saying millions will die” and well done and a gold star will be yours along with the pride of being “right”
I still think you’re wrong though
Tim, my gut feeling is that there will be "more people potentially dying before their time" as the PM put it, but not of the order of magnitude that the doomsayers on here are quoting. I think it would be wrong to put a figure on it, as I'll open myself up to criticism as those who have said 2M etc have done.
I'm not going to trawl through the thread but I can recall having to point out that Lowbankclaret's calculations were consistently misinterpreted and your doom and gloom death rates along with his were wildly out, which you then extrapolated to incorrect values for total deaths. Your retort to this will be "well I said 60-80%" blah blah blah, and you'll see I agreed, but I also pointed out that that figure would be eventually and you both kept insisting that it was within weeks.paulatky wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:27 amWhere were we wrong ?
The other thing I said was that the damage to the economy would be far greater than the damage to. The damage to world economies will be far far worse than even I imagined.
I also said there would be shortages and that has happened and can only get worse.
I'll go along with most of what you say there but as for future change, well? While we have people like Trump in the White House, the world will always be about bullying, ignoring climate change and making as much money as possible, regardless of the cost to the world.Zlatan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:41 amTim, my gut feeling is that there will be "more people potentially dying before their time" as the PM put it, but not of the order of magnitude that the doomsayers on here are quoting. I think it would be wrong to put a figure on it, as I'll open myself up to criticism as those who have said 2M etc have done.
Initially I felt that it was all a massive over reaction (it may still be), but I am doing as per instructions to "do my bit". There is a sense of "Armageddon" about it all, and that's what I am uncomfortable with personally. I am in the high risk group (mentioned before) so I am "isolated" for 12 weeks, although I have driven the good lady for her to go shopping, which was almost pointless. Being a good lady she came back with 2 bottles of JD and some Vodka, but nothing worth eating...
When all is done and dusted I think the vast majority of those "gone before their time" will be people who would have normally been susceptible to the winter flu, and probably would have been at risk of dying without the vaccine for that. I also think that the positive effect on the climate will be a wake up call to all - showing everyone that all is not lost, but we will need to change.
I don't wish anyone dead, but the reality is that if some people die (including me) then so be it. As long as society and the governments learn from this the world will be a better place, don't you think? I'm am hopeful that lessons will be learnt of course... things like possibly forcing herd immunity for outbreaks like this (promote a spread across fit and healthy adults once initial testing is done - to volunteers of course) and putting healthcare before profits etc, but I don't want to politicise the thread, so happy to discuss that elsewhere.
Be well
My timescales was always 12 months.Zlatan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:45 amI'm not going to trawl through the thread but I can recall having to point out that Lowbankclaret's calculations were consistently misinterpreted and your doom and gloom death rates along with his were wildly out, which you then extrapolated to incorrect values for total deaths. Your retort to this will be "well I said 60-80%" blah blah blah, and you'll see I agreed, but I also pointed out that that figure would be eventually and you both kept insisting that it was within weeks.
Look, it's getting scary out there, just take care and be well.
I mentioned this yesterday but got slated for it by the usual suspects. In yesterday's PMs statement, he didn't give an exact timescale but said PHE was working on it "Today" and that it was "Just down the road."Dy1geo wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:35 amThey think we are about a month away from a test to see if people have had the virus but none or virtually nil symptoms and I think this will be the game changer in that the modellers will be able to factor these in to their calculations. Going off the Diamond Princess cruise ship of the 700 or so that got diagnosed with Covid 19 around 300 or so had no symptoms. The guy in Brighton who was dubbed the “super spreader” had no symptoms.
Stop being such a baby. Just strolled into my town, market open and loads of stuff, more than usual. Everyone being sensible, standing apart etc, most with those gloves on. But yeah, the birds were still singing, people were cheerful despite the weirdness and it all seemed pretty positive.
Interesting.. ..Gordaleman wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:10 amBP has just announced that it will provide 'Free fuel' to emergency services and free food deliveries to the elderly.
No details at this stage.
A bit of positive news for once.
I don't think it will be long before we have a number of MPs and Lords testing positive. Everyone knows how close they sit next to each other, and that has only reduced in the last couple of days as fewer MPs / Lords have been entering the main chambers.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:51 amBBC: EU's chief Brexit negotiator tests positive for virus.
(No, let's not combine the two threads).
Those in the house of lords should all cuddle up to each other and infect the lot of them....not one of them would be missed and maybe with what we save we can give women back their pensions at 60.....just thought.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:57 amI don't think it will be long before we have a number of MPs and Lords testing positive. Everyone knows how close they sit next to each other, and that has only reduced in the last couple of days as fewer MPs / Lords have been entering the main chambers.
I have been on conference calls a minimum of once a day for the last 10 working days, some people have obviously never really used conference calls for some reason and we have been trialing new apps, zoom, teams, plus old ones, Skype and WebEx. With 2 of the companies I have spoken to they have been really overworked in the IT departments setting up people to work from home as part of there business continuity strategy. As a result this last few days has resulted in multiple comments around how easy and effect this is and we should use it more often.Spiral wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:23 amIt would be wonderful if through all the ugliness and tragedy of this pandemic, a demonstration of the real value of a cleaner planet focussed minds on environmental and climate concerns. Obviously, such a global shutdown as we're seeing is not at all practical as a solution to the climate crisis, but it might show folks that striving for it is worthwhile if people en masse are become healthier. It might burgeon political will. There are anecdotal stories of Chinese foreign nationals returning to China only to notice the minute they step off the plane that the air smells different.
Hopefully, working from home will become more accepted. I retired at 61 (about 9 years ago) because the daily commute of 90 minutes each way got pretty unbearable. The work I did could easily be done from home with maybe one day in for face-face stuff but my boss would only let me work home 1 day per week (I think because it seemed more macho to him to go into work and get yourself seen/heard).Therefore the trend could be much more video conferencing that travel cutting down on planes, trains and automobiles, which can only be a good thing, especially when these companies review there travel spending for the month or so and start to dictate that more conferencing and less physical travel.
I remember a second telephone line being installed at home as part of "business continuity plans" (I think it was then called "disaster recovery). That was late 1980s, when there was no internet and it was simply "dial-up modems" - but it was fantastic to be ready to do some work from home.KateR wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:18 pmI have been on conference calls a minimum of once a day for the last 10 working days, some people have obviously never really used conference calls for some reason and we have been trialing new apps, zoom, teams, plus old ones, Skype and WebEx. With 2 of the companies I have spoken to they have been really overworked in the IT departments setting up people to work from home as part of there business continuity strategy. As a result this last few days has resulted in multiple comments around how easy and effect this is and we should use it more often.
Do you ever use Team Viewer? I've used that quite a lot in the past.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:58 pmI remember a second telephone line being installed at home as part of "business continuity plans" (I think it was then called "disaster recovery). That was late 1980s, when there was no internet and it was simply "dial-up modems" - but it was fantastic to be ready to do some work from home.
My company has now discovered that 6,000 staff all trying to access VPN at the same time "doesn't work."
And, the instruction has gone round "facebook and youtube" are probably best saved for your non-working time - and not via the company's vpn!
We can now use Teams (and Skype and Zoom) w/out going thru vpn. I also say that I'm not using video for these calls as it puts stress on the connections. (It's also good if I'm still in my dressing gown).
I am just about to go on my second call of the day, the conference call company we use in the Netherlands is overloaded (just voice) so we are all moving to Skype, like you I rarely sue my video but do for select calls, I have never used any VPN for any calls/conferences. It's the way forwardPaul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:58 pmI remember a second telephone line being installed at home as part of "business continuity plans" (I think it was then called "disaster recovery). That was late 1980s, when there was no internet and it was simply "dial-up modems" - but it was fantastic to be ready to do some work from home.
My company has now discovered that 6,000 staff all trying to access VPN at the same time "doesn't work."
And, the instruction has gone round "facebook and youtube" are probably best saved for your non-working time - and not via the company's vpn!
We can now use Teams (and Skype and Zoom) w/out going thru vpn. I also say that I'm not using video for these calls as it puts stress on the connections. (It's also good if I'm still in my dressing gown).
Hi Frank, I had to look up "Team Viewer" - no, I've not used. We started using MS Teams sometime last year, moving across from Sykpe (which, of course, is also MS). I'm a "keep it simple" user. I'll learn how to use what I need to use. Anything else, I delegate to the younger members of my team to explore.FactualFrank wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:04 pmDo you ever use Team Viewer? I've used that quite a lot in the past.
Post by Gordaleman » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:23 amFactualFrank wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:37 pmI was in the cafe about 15 minutes ago and briefly spotted in the paper, a method/device that as from next month will be able to check people to see if they've had the virus, just without realising (low/no symptoms).
It may have been mentioned on here, but with it being 80% buillsh1t posts and 80% being on my Foe list, I've probably missed it.
It looks promising though as it will at least allow those people who have had it, to go back to work.