The markets. It's not just Coronavirus. It was overdue.

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:50 pm

This guy always talks a lot of sense.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/K ... Kitco-NEWS

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:06 pm

On a serious note, for any would be investor what would you be ploughing into now?

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:13 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:06 pm
On a serious note, for any would be investor what would you be ploughing into now?

That's difficult. Airline stocks will recover at some point but it depends on your time scale. Utilities will probably do well too, especially in the UK if Boris follows through on his infrastructure promises. I've been buying Gold and Silver for years now, hence my interest in the site above. However, they have been trashed like everything else in the last few days. Great buying opportunity though. There's sure to be a world recession now and the Central Banks will print money again. That means inflation and in that scenario, precious metals always do well.

I'm certanly not giving financial advice though. I suggested something similar on another thread and it was taken down.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:17 pm

Feb 4, 2014
https://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/04/euro-pa ... -jump.html

" Peter Schiff has a prediction, and it has to do with the Federal Reserve, inflation and gold.

The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and a famous fan of gold, Schiff predicts that it will skyrocket

“At some point, gold’s going to go straight up like a moonshot,” Schiff said on Tuesday’s edition of “Futures Now.”"

: Screenshot_20200313-211641.jpg (21.82 KiB) Viewed 4047 times

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:30 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:06 pm
On a serious note, for any would be investor what would you be ploughing into now?

The stock market generally. Manufaturing. A good time to invest when its so low.

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:31 pm

Stayingup wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:30 pm
The stock market generally. Manufaturing. A good time to invest when its so low.

Not yet though, you don't try to catch a falling knife and this isn't over yet.

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:49 am

Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:31 pm
Not yet though, you don't try to catch a falling knife and this isn't over yet.

Is the cat still bouncing? Dow and Nasdaq made significant recovery Friday. Thinking they may well drop back after DT's spectacular (mis)handling of yesterday's press conference - even Google don't know what they are supposed to be working on - and their the mother of search engines.

DT inspires as much confidence in the US markets as putting Adrian in Liverpools' goal.

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:08 am

Gordaleman, how do you buy gold.

Is it as a stock rather than physical - i.e, I imagine you don't store it under your bed.
See some gold traders on- line but wary they may be Nigerian uncles if you get my drift.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:43 am

I don't see much of a rebound until the USA gets towards the peak of the disease which is weeks off, not sure how much things will drop before then but I'm doubtful of a positive jump

Top Claret · Post by **Top Claret** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:22 am

Can see a Sh!t storm on Monday with the markets across the world taking a huge hit.

This coronavirus is getting very serious now with Europe in lock down and no doubt the UK to follow.

Cash is king at the moment. The market has as still a long way to fall. I have a drawdown pension and its value as fallen 4% in the last 2 weeks. Two of my funds are actually still rising and I got a 1% bonus 2 weeks ago. I fully expect a correction in the future.

paulatky · Post by **paulatky** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:02 am

Any predictions about where the markets might finish at close of business tomorrow.
A forecast a bloodbath

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:07 am

paulatky wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:02 am
Any predictions about where the markets might finish at close of business tomorrow.
A forecast a bloodbath

Dow finished strongly on Friday. Usually points to a strong open Monday, but I doubt it this time. Think this week will be a bigger bloodbath than last.

There will be little bounces along the way but the complete shut down of whole nations is unprecedented and will have much wider reaching consequences for the global economy than the financial crash (when it was just the banks in trouble), the dotcom crash, wars, 9/11, etc.

My opinion, of course.

dushanbe · Post by **dushanbe** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:16 am

Gordaleman wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:31 pm
Not yet though, you don't try to catch a falling knife and this isn't over yet.

If we are using cliched quotes then I’ll throw in ‘man who tries to find bottom, ends up with stinky finger’

Granny WeatherWax · Post by **Granny WeatherWax** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:26 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:06 pm
On a serious note, for any would be investor what would you be ploughing into now?

Oil

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:55 am

atlantalad wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:08 am
Gordaleman, how do you buy gold.

Is it as a stock rather than physical - i.e, I imagine you don't store it under your bed.
See some gold traders on- line but wary they may be Nigerian uncles if you get my drift.

No, you can easily buy physical Gold or Silver. There are numerous sites in Britain that are very reliable. Just use Google and search 'Buy Gold'.

Another good way is via Ebay, but you need to be a bit more careful there as to exactly what you buy. Only buy .999 Silver and Gold. Search 'Silver' in the coins category. Only buy from people with established feedback though. There are a lot of fakes on Ebay.

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:08 am

The big problem at the moment is not really the Coronavius, it's the amount of corporate debt in America. Companies have been borrowing for years because of low interest rates, knowing they could service that debt, Now, with no one buying, they are unable to do so. With people staying home, to try and stay safe, many companies will quickly go bust. It's a bit like 2007 all over again.

This is far from over and markets may fall a lot more yet. I'd certainly stay away from stocks at the moment, but I don't see Gold or Silver falling much more. In fact, they could be due a rebound. Gold definitely more than Silver though, as Silver is an industrial metal as well as a precious one and indeustry will be usung much less.

By the way, germs and virusus can't live on Silver. That's why it's now used in hospital robes etc.. It's even being used in modern work surfaces, especially where food is prepared.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:34 am

For the last 10 years I have had most of my savings in gold, some of it bullion and some of it mining companies (Black Rock Gold and General Fund). Due to the credit bubble and housing price bubble.

Missed out on the (false) boom of the last decade but I’m not selling now, that’s for sure.

Interest rates going down is positive for gold. As is uncertainty. Could be a safe haven against currency and wider stock market volatility. Who knows? We are in unpredictable times but we have to protect our wealth AND our health.

CombatClaret · Post by **CombatClaret** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:37 am

atlantalad wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:08 am
Gordaleman, how do you buy gold.

Is it as a stock rather than physical - i.e, I imagine you don't store it under your bed.
See some gold traders on- line but wary they may be Nigerian uncles if you get my drift.

If it's not under your bed and just on some virtual portfolio then you don't really 'own' the gold.

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:58 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:34 am
For the last 10 years I have had most of my savings in gold, some of it bullion and some of it mining companies (Black Rock Gold and General Fund). Due to the credit bubble and housing price bubble.

Missed out on the (false) boom of the last decade but I’m not selling now, that’s for sure.

Interest rates going down is positive for gold. As is uncertainty. Could be a safe haven against currency and wider stock market volatility. Who knows? We are in unpredictable times but we have to protect our wealth AND our health.

The problem with Gold at this precise moment is that when stock markets panic, they panic in EVERYTHING, including Gold. However, when things settle down a bit, and they will, interest rates will still be very low and Gold will be a star buy. The thing is not to wait for everyone to buy but to get in ahead of the herd.

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:48 pm

Granny WeatherWax wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:26 am
Oil

Cannot see oil as a safe haven ( toilet paper better option at moment). A recession is coming so Middle East and Russia will continue pumping oil to get revenue. My view is that ppb will fall even more as there will be an over supply.

Keeping an eye on up and coming tech stocks, world industry is carrying an eye watering debt burden and I cannot see how it will service this in the coming months/years.

We are in very unusual situation since we don't know how long this Covid-19 virus will last. Until we see the end point introducing fiscal & monetary stimuli are pointless. Thinking at some point in time G7, G20 will need to come together and do a revaluation of economies and more realistic values of goods/services. Unsure how they will sort out world debt as everyone seems to owe each other trillions of $'s.

is it possible to write off %'s or swap debts?

barba · Post by **barba** » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:18 pm

US down ~ 5% in futures markets

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:26 pm

Oh heck, that's buggered it. I've just sold a couple of Silver coins on Ebay, so I'll have to go out and face the virus to post them. There was me thinking it gave me something to do while I was stuck at home sort of semi self isolating.

Edit: Dow down 6.5%, Gold currently up $50 from earlier today. http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:55 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:06 pm
On a serious note, for any would be investor what would you be ploughing into now?

yes, a general basket, avoiding Oil related and any service industries to the Oil companies. More Unit Trust types than actual company shares

Netflix got to be making more money as the months go on but not sustainable as a big gainer in my opinion.

M&G do a UK Recovery Fund, which I think will do good in the future.

claret2018 · Post by **claret2018** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:59 pm

I wouldn’t be touching airline stocks with a bargepole at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several airlines go under over the next few months.

If we go into lock-down then what will happen to non-food retailers, restaurants, pubs, cinemas, and many other industries? I would imagine most, if not all businesses would not be able to sustain a 3 month period of no trading.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 pm

claret2018 wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:59 pm
If we go into lock-down then what will happen to non-food retailers, restaurants, pubs, cinemas, and many other industries? I would imagine most, if not all businesses would not be able to sustain a 3 month period of no trading.

A bit of an unknown really. Restaurants could look into delivery if they don't already do so.

theboydonegood · Post by **theboydonegood** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:07 pm

This hasn't even started properly yet - China will be back under the cosh within weeks. The rest of the world has the wrong plan with wholesale shutdowns. the only option is a controlled ( as far as possible ) outbreak whilst giving as many people as possible the best care and NOT overwhelming the healthcare community. Until someone gets a credible vaccine or everyone has a better immunity its going to get a whole lot worse.

TBDG

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:43 pm

theboydonegood wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:07 pm
This hasn't even started properly yet - China will be back under the cosh within weeks. The rest of the world has the wrong plan with wholesale shutdowns. the only option is a controlled ( as far as possible ) outbreak whilst giving as many people as possible the best care and NOT overwhelming the healthcare community. Until someone gets a credible vaccine or everyone has a better immunity its going to get a whole lot worse.

TBDG

Not sure why you think "China will be back under the cosh soon." There current caseload is down to 9,848 active cases and only 14 new deaths. However they are controling it, (And not everyone is in lockdown.) it seems to be working. At least for now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

theboydonegood · Post by **theboydonegood** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:49 pm

The reality is that the China as a whole is not traveling and people are not traveling too -- its "relatively" easy to lock down a country or a city or a street but at some point the lockdown ends and "normality" resumes- unless the virus is wiped out everywhere it just comes back around again. This time they had a patient 0 next time they could have 10 of them. The same goes for every other country btw

TBDG

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:49 pm

claret2018 wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:59 pm
I wouldn’t be touching airline stocks with a bargepole at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several airlines go under over the next few months.

If we go into lock-down then what will happen to non-food retailers, restaurants, pubs, cinemas, and many other industries? I would imagine most, if not all businesses would not be able to sustain a 3 month period of no trading.

AIG own BA, Iberia and Aer Lingus, AIG over 9 Billion in reserves, as you say they will all be in trouble for a while and some will go the way to the wall, routes and planes at reduced prices so if you assume a correction in the virus in a few months then BA for example could be a top pick.

BA/IAG objecting to Flybe bailout and you can expect, if not already an objection to Virgin, they would to see Virgin loose a few of those US lucrative routes they have.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:51 pm

FactualFrank wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:02 pm
A bit of an unknown really. Restaurants could look into delivery if they don't already do so.

be better looking at the delivery services I think, Deliveroo, Uber Eats etc. rather than food chains

paulatky · Post by **paulatky** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:26 am

Anyone else think the markets across the world should be shut down for a while

Burnley1989 · Post by **Burnley1989** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:37 am

KateR wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:51 pm
be better looking at the delivery services I think, Deliveroo, Uber Eats etc. rather than food chains

I read that as Uber Bats then, can’t get the little sods out of my head now

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:49 pm

so has anyone actually gone in to the market and purchased shares of any kind?

takes courage and think you need a bit of spare "cash" to invest right now. I am thinking strongly about it and wondering if I am going to need that spare cash in the near term.

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:12 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:49 pm
so has anyone actually gone in to the market and purchased shares of any kind?

takes courage and think you need a bit of spare "cash" to invest right now. I am thinking strongly about it and wondering if I am going to need that spare cash in the near term.

I've invested in the markets ( funds + some shares) for the past 2 years. Things were fine until mid-February. Luckily, I sold up - just before all the major crashes started. I dabbled now and again as day trading over the past few weeks but it is just too volatile to speculate price movements. Probably better luck with a roulette table at the moment.

I am quite happy now sitting on the side with a list of potential stocks and funds to invest in once the markets settle and start a recover.
Think we have a long wait before market stability is restored so I am not tempted to go back for a long time. I am happy to bide my time and reduce risk. As comment made above.... trying to get in at the bottom may be ill judged.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:18 pm

I think people who actually get in right at the bottom are mainly lucky, of course they do there homework and crunch numbers etc. but at the end of the day there is an element of luck. I would be happy getting in anywhere down towards the bottom, yet as you say it is a question of when will they recover/stabilize, is it weeks, or months, or indeed will it roll into 2021.

Gordaleman · Post by **Gordaleman** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:37 pm

Gold up about $60 in the last few hours. Goldman Sachs still predicting $1,800 an ounce in twelve months. Currently $1,540

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:43 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:51 pm
be better looking at the delivery services I think, Deliveroo, Uber Eats etc. rather than food chains

Not sure on this one. Would you want your meal delivered by a guy who could have been in contact with a carrier just doing his job?

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:52 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:43 pm
Not sure on this one. Would you want your meal delivered by a guy who could have been in contact with a carrier just doing his job?

the issue will become one of choice, can you go out and buy or live of your stock and hope it lasts, if it doesn't last then you need to consider.

I would not buy salad/cold items, however from what I understand the virus can not withstand heat well and I read above 26C it will die, therefore gloves for packaging received, microwave to kill, I did this Saturday evening after a take away.

with the heat there are "forecasts" that hot/tropical places will see less outbreaks than colder climes, maybe why India Africa are lower for now but just a theory and not proof, it is summer in Oz and they have it.

paulatky · Post by **paulatky** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:45 pm

I believe it’s an inevitability that we’re quickly heading towards a financial *depression* like the last global depression between 1929 – 1939 (or possibly much worse) and not a recession, like in 2008.

The world has changed forever.

I can see a global currency and that currency wont be cash as we know it.

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:47 pm

My shares in tin foil will be worth a fortune if some carry on as they are doing

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:41 pm

atlantalad wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:08 am
Gordaleman, how do you buy gold.

Is it as a stock rather than physical - i.e, I imagine you don't store it under your bed.
See some gold traders on- line but wary they may be Nigerian uncles if you get my drift.

I've a good friend who's a financial advisor. Last summer he was telling me he was moving his own personal investments from traditional forms of investment to physical gold. Reason, in a nutshell, the bull run would come to and end , quantitative easing (the money printing the central banks had done) and global geo politics and other "instabilities".

He was advising his clients to do the same. With some success. Others were more reticent, he said, believing him to be somewhere between alarmist and unnecessarily pessimistic.

It worth noting that he wasn't buying shares in gold, but gold itself.

He's very highly regarded in the financial world, he was on the panel that sets the questions, in exams , for new entrants into the industry. Not sure if he still does to be honest. His client base is made up of , well above average net worth individuals.

I've not had chance to speak to him since the current Coronavirus situation, but I'm assuming more of his clients now wish they had took his advice.

I'll give you the nod, when , if he ever, recommends switching back to shares/bonds!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:51 pm

paulatky wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:45 pm
I believe it’s an inevitability that we’re quickly heading towards a financial *depression* like the last global depression between 1929 – 1939 (or possibly much worse) and not a recession, like in 2008.

The world has changed forever.

I can see a global currency and that currency wont be cash as we know it.

You're right Paul. And there already, effectively, is.

Gold.

In times of wars, crises and uncertainty, it's the globally accepted safe haven.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:39 pm

I disagree, but give it a few more weeks and I might be changing my mind, my thoughts are obviously only a prediction and I offer no advice, so should you suffer as a result this is my disclaimer

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:57 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:39 pm
I disagree, but give it a few more weeks and I might be changing my mind, my thoughts are obviously only a prediction and I offer no advice, so should you suffer as a result this is my disclaimer

Sure I read somewhere that joe Kennedy , JFKs dad, made all his millions around the time of the Wall Street Crash. As everyone was running through the "Exit" door of the stock exchange, he was briskly walking through the "Entry".....

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm

you can be certain that some people are making money out of this in numerous different ways but the vast majority will be suffering from the downturn

paulatky · Post by **paulatky** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 pm

United Airlines down 50% at one point today.
Closed over 30% down.

Oil dropped to $24 a barrel

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:32 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm
you can be certain that some people are making money out of this in numerous different ways but the vast majority will be suffering from the downturn

Absolutely. 100%. I know it sounds trivial, in the grand scheme of things, but, shares in Netflix and the supermarkets are rocketing. My dad always used to say, "theres always somebody making money out of someone else, some where."