Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

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Carnsmerry12
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Carnsmerry12 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:33 pm

MT03ALGs post could well be the strategy for the future and ticks a lot of boxes.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by CFS » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:44 pm

kaptin1 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:12 pm
Bye bye Dwight
Bye bye Nick
Bye Bye James
Problem solved right there plus Gibson can come back and play.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:45 pm

MT03ALG wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:59 pm
Complete this season before the end of the 2020 and collect TV money.
Christmas break as requested by many managers and possibly players.
Next season to start in January 2021 and finish in November 2021 including break for Euros.
Following season to start in January 2022 and finish in October 2022 giving time to prepare for the World Cup which starts in November 2022.
I hope FIFA will have the foresight to see this possibility.
Doesn't get round the problem of the lost money. The money for this season and the next two that should all have been received by April 2022 won't arrive in full until 6 months later. It spreads out the loss, but it doesn't remove it.

Burnley aren't in as bad position as we might think. £50m loss blows our cash reserve and means signing players will be harder (but that's true for everyone), and we don't have huge player payment liabilities to meet. We could ride it, uncomfortably perhaps, but passably.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:49 pm

ClaretTony wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:37 am
No way can they afford to miss a full season - the losses then would be devastating, particularly for a club like ours who have no benefactor. We know, now, that in normal circumstances we had our place in the Premier League for 2020/21 and we can't afford to lose that money.

I am a bit baffled with the figure of £45 for lost TV revenue. Given we've played 29 of the 38 games, the loss of £45 million would be for nine games which is £5 million per game. Given that ratio, you'd be looking at £190 over a full season.
Let's have a bit of perspective, It's only football. This is life or death, it doesn't matter if all the clubs go bust, plenty of other businesses are also going down the pan in the fight against the pandemic.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by ClaretTony » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:53 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:49 pm
Let's have a bit of perspective, It's only football. This is life or death, it doesn't matter if all the clubs go bust, plenty of other businesses are also going down the pan in the fight against the pandemic.
The thread is about the potential cost to Burnley FC.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by mealdeal » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:54 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:49 pm
Let's have a bit of perspective, It's only football. This is life or death, it doesn't matter if all the clubs go bust, plenty of other businesses are also going down the pan in the fight against the pandemic.
If we are talking perspective, then you've lost yours completely.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:56 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:49 pm
Let's have a bit of perspective, It's only football. This is life or death, it doesn't matter if all the clubs go bust, plenty of other businesses are also going down the pan in the fight against the pandemic.
Life is about eating, sleeping, and breathing. Everything else is trivia.

Bit if all you ever do is eat, sleep, and breathe, what sort of life is that? It's all very well to say that football, and TV, and work, and countryside, and entertainment, are not important. But if everything about life is disregarded except for where the next breath is coming from, then life is scarcely worth living anyway.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by summitclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:15 pm

I am expecting a big knock on to next season. We can save a significant amount by letting all those out of contract go when this season ends. Geoff has had plenty of time to sign up. He might sign a lessor deal now. I would.

We don't need Hart. Just have a smaller squad for a period and use the kids as bench fillers, if necessary.

Wage reductions in line with the whole PL for now and income from playing out the season behind closed doors should suffice in the short term.

Once lockdown is relaxed, play out this season BCD. If necessary start next season that way, but later than normal.

Edit. Club could refund people that get season tickets at least in part from the extra tv money for more televised games. Thus encouraging fans to get new STs.
Last edited by summitclaret on Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:19 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:29 pm

I’ve just written a big long rant about how football clubs should be owned, at least in the majority by, their fans/community, with ticket prices capped, but deleted it because it’s not really the point of the thread.
I have been thinking for a long time about a thread on that subject - starting with looking at the negative consequences of FFP and how FFP needs to be tweaked - it would require discipline from posters to only put out properly researched and thought through posts though - otherwise it would sink into the knee jerk and glib remarks we see elsewhere.

I think one of the key features of the Magic Money Tree thread is the fact it is more a repository of this kind of articles from a broad range of thought together with factual content rather than mine or others thoughts and debates (though I occasionally slip up on that front). When discussion does occur (infrequently) it errs towards seriousness and so the thread manages to keep it's tone. It is not to everyone's taste, but as mentioned, plenty of it's content ends up on other threads and they then find their own style.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:20 pm

dsr wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:56 pm
Life is about eating, sleeping, and breathing. Everything else is trivia.

Bit if all you ever do is eat, sleep, and breathe, what sort of life is that? It's all very well to say that football, and TV, and work, and countryside, and entertainment, are not important. But if everything about life is disregarded except for where the next breath is coming from, then life is scarcely worth living anyway.
You should try and remember this viewpoint and try to apply it the next time you question the need for foodbanks and the suffering of the poor based on the fact they have phones and TV's rather than just the absolute minimum basic essentials needed to breathe and merely survive

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:23 pm

summitclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:15 pm

We don't need Hart. Just have a smaller squad for a period and use the kids as bench fillers, if necessary.
The problem with that is that depth of squad has seen us keep/thrive(?) in the Premier League, when it wasn't present an injury like Marney's saw us relegated - yes the squad has greater nous and experience now but the depth is crucial
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:41 pm

dsr wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:45 pm
Doesn't get round the problem of the lost money. The money for this season and the next two that should all have been received by April 2022 won't arrive in full until 6 months later. It spreads out the loss, but it doesn't remove it.

Burnley aren't in as bad position as we might think. £50m loss blows our cash reserve and means signing players will be harder (but that's true for everyone), and we don't have huge player payment liabilities to meet. We could ride it, uncomfortably perhaps, but passably.

I posted before the lock down on the MMT thread that we could expect this kind of loss if the season did not complete (though I didn't factor in the £6m to EFL or £1m to NHS). It must be remembered this is a predicted loss of revenue - from a season where it would have been reasonable to expect a revenue of around £140m - £150m as a result of Increased tv (new deal and table position), sponsorship and commercial revenue.

Take £50m from that and we have a projected revenue of £90m - £100m.

We have seen wage growth in the last accounts (though some have since left) and a number of players have had new deals announced during the season. We do not know what our commitment to bonuses entails we will remain in the premier league whatever the course so it could be significant

We know the season has seen a net £8m in transfer spend (again in the most recent accounts).

We know that amortisation has gone up again (Jay-Rod, Peacock Farrell and Brownhill)

We can assume that other costs are likely to be similar to be around the £14m of last season

we may make an operational loss as well as a significant book one and as previously stated our cash at the bank is likely to be completely wiped out

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by tiger76 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:45 pm

MT03ALG wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:59 pm
Complete this season before the end of the 2020 and collect TV money.
Christmas break as requested by many managers and possibly players.
Next season to start in January 2021 and finish in November 2021 including break for Euros.
Following season to start in January 2022 and finish in October 2022 giving time to prepare for the World Cup which starts in November 2022.
I hope FIFA will have the foresight to see this possibility.
I'm sure they have envisaged several different scenarios,this actually makes a lot of sense,even in the worst case,you'd hope football could be up and running by the Autumn,it shouldn't be that hard to complete the domestic season by the end of 2020,European comps could be another ball game.

How that would work for the Summer transfer window is a good :?: ideally you would just scrap it,but there's an awful lot of ooc players in June.So that would require clarification as to their status.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:41 pm
I posted before the lock down on the MMT thread that we could expect this kind of loss if the season did not complete (though I didn't factor in the £6m to EFL or £1m to NHS). It must be remembered this is a predicted loss of revenue - from a season where it would have been reasonable to expect a revenue of around £140m - £150m as a result of Increased tv (new deal and table position), sponsorship and commercial revenue.

Take £50m from that and we have a projected revenue of £90m - £100m.

We have seen wage growth in the last accounts (though some have since left) and a number of players have had new deals announced during the season. We do not know what our commitment to bonuses entails we will remain in the premier league whatever the course so it could be significant

We know the season has seen a net £8m in transfer spend (again in the most recent accounts).

We know that amortisation has gone up again (Jay-Rod, Peacock Farrell and Brownhill)

We can assume that other costs are likely to be similar to be around the £14m of last season

we may make an operational loss as well as a significant book one and as previously stated our cash at the bank is likely to be completely wiped out
I should have also added that the £50m loss is the worst case scenario - reports are that Sky/BT are looking at having more games for the rest of the cycle (next 2 seasons) to make up for this season's shortfall (gives them advertising and subscription revenue) without asking for refunds.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:59 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:20 pm
You should try and remember this viewpoint and try to apply it the next time you question the need for foodbanks and the suffering of the poor based on the fact they have phones and TV's rather than just the absolute minimum basic essentials needed to breathe and merely survive
Off topic, but you could perhaps remember that I don't generally question the need for foodbanks. What I have said is that not everyone who uses a food bank is at the position of starvation if they don't; for some it's just a way of saving money so they can afford an expensive phone and car as well.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Dy1geo » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:00 pm

When this is over football will have to face a new reality. With the drop in GDP we could be looking at a depression bigger than the 30’s. At present a lot of people are protected through furlough, mortgage holidays, credit card freezes but that can only happen for a limited period.

Sky ultimately pay the bills and if they have lots of cancellations etc they won’t pay as much for TV rights. Also clubs might see a drop off in ST holders purely on financial reasons.

We have a lot of players whose contracts are ending and I think we need to be careful about offering extensions and how much they pay. I can see a lot of good quality players out of contract that are available in the Summer. With regards Hendrick it might be prudent if the club to look again at the offer on the table for him. I can see the value of players reduced as well.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by ClaretLoup » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:12 pm

Indeed. There will be tax increases for those in work to pay for the massive spending on the NHS and benefits plus many other adverse financial side effects.

Football will have to take a financial reality check.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:42 pm

Dy1geo wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:00 pm
When this is over football will have to face a new reality. With the drop in GDP we could be looking at a depression bigger than the 30’s. At present a lot of people are protected through furlough, mortgage holidays, credit card freezes but that can only happen for a limited period.

Sky ultimately pay the bills and if they have lots of cancellations etc they won’t pay as much for TV rights. Also clubs might see a drop off in ST holders purely on financial reasons.

We have a lot of players whose contracts are ending and I think we need to be careful about offering extensions and how much they pay. I can see a lot of good quality players out of contract that are available in the Summer. With regards Hendrick it might be prudent if the club to look again at the offer on the table for him. I can see the value of players reduced as well.
Yep and good, about time something burst this ridiculous bubble. The solution is simple, sack all the players due to the pandemic and then offer them new contracts, somewhere in the region of 2k per month. If they don't like it they can always go and do something else.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:59 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:20 pm
You should try and remember this viewpoint and try to apply it the next time you question the need for foodbanks and the suffering of the poor based on the fact they have phones and TV's rather than just the absolute minimum basic essentials needed to breathe and merely survive
I like the idea that while doctors and nurses are battling to keep us all alive we should spare a thought for poor football clubs.

At the end of this the club will still be there, the fans will still be there but both will have to face a new financial reality. If the biggest outlay is paying players then we'll just have to do away with the most expensive ones, I can't say, in times like these that I'll be shedding any tears for them. Football was due a reset, it's been a gravy train for too long.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:03 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:59 pm

At the end of this the club will still be there.
I think there is a real danger than a few clubs will go under if the money runs out.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:07 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:03 pm
I think there is a real danger than a few clubs will go under if the money runs out.
Tough titty for them, this crisis just shows how unimportant football clubs and footballers actually are and what they are based on, money money money.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Woodleyclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:36 pm

Perhaps its time to go and seriously seek new investors
Clearly we need more financial muscle to weather the storm of the tv monies going

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Turfytop » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:40 pm

Has anyone seen the mike garlick interview on sky sports news , only seen a bit, but saying something on the lines of, if it carry’s on like it is now , we as a club run out money by august.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:45 pm

Turfytop wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:40 pm
Has anyone seen the mike garlick interview on sky sports news , only seen a bit, but saying something on the lines of, if it carry’s on like it is now , we as a club run out money by august.
it is here https://www.skysports.com/watch/video/s ... -by-august

sounds accurate to me - it is about cash flow - that would be paying out full wages and other costs for 5 months (including outstanding transfer payments) with nothing incoming

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:49 pm

The Bolton prophecy is coming true!!

Image

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:55 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:49 pm
The Bolton prophecy is coming true!!

Image
They wouldn't even exist now if Eddie hadn't written that £180m off, and even with that and a subsequent admin they are in deep doodoo again and may yet go to admin again - we will be here in August, though may be just about to go into debt

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by randomclaret2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:57 pm

That picture was taken towards the end of Coyle's time at Bolton, when things were so bad that even wee Sandy Stewart would go to any length not to be seen with him...
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:59 pm

Woodleyclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:36 pm
Perhaps its time to go and seriously seek new investors
Clearly we need more financial muscle to weather the storm of the tv monies going
An advert in the Burnley Express should do it.
We’ll be fighting off the queue of investors with a shi-tty stick.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by randomclaret2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:01 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:07 pm
Tough titty for them, this crisis just shows how unimportant football clubs and footballers actually are and what they are based on, money money money.
Are you actually a football fan ?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:11 pm

Woodleyclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:36 pm
Perhaps its time to go and seriously seek new investors
Clearly we need more financial muscle to weather the storm of the tv monies going
The problem is that the ones who are coming out of this strong are not necessarily the ones many would want our club to be associated with - given their desire to extract profit from every situation - and for that profit to increase their wealth and self-perceived status not to make the business stronger and more stable

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:17 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:55 pm
They wouldn't even exist now if Eddie hadn't written that £180m off, and even with that and a subsequent admin they are in deep doodoo again and may yet go to admin again - we will be here in August, though may be just about to go into debt
I hope this post has been verified and approved by Kieran Maguire
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Darnhill Claret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:04 pm

If we do lose the three players mentioned it will surely be for much less than we had previously anticipated, due to buying clubs having suffered significant losses.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Winstonswhite » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:28 pm

Garlick just getting in there early with a bit of PR for the restart.

One way or other we’ll be back playing by a June at the latest so it’s a bit of an irrelevant issue.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:30 pm

Barry Chuckle wrote: Lockdown lifted in May, 9 games played behind closed doors in June, perhaps spill into early July. New season starts end of August, get rid of League cup and throw a couple of mid week prem games in. BISH BASH BOSH job done.
I can't see any way in which the season will resume this year - excepting an 'earlier than expected vaccine' becoming available. This pandemic is likely to be with us for a year. It is highly infectious. If the lockdown is lifted in a few months the virus will start to spread again.

In these circumstances there would be many problems with holding 'behind closed doors matches':
  • All players, managers, officials, backroom staff TV crews etc. would need to be tested before any game. If just one player/manager, backroom staff in a squad tests positive the whole lot of them would have to self isolate. Match abandoned
  • If we don't test, and one infected person is on the pitch he would likely infect a number of his own squad and the opposition teams squad and the officials.
  • A few premiership players have already tested positive. Re-starting the matches in the middle of the pandemic is likely to result in half the players in the premiership becoming infected. Some could develop complications and be out of football for a long time.
  • Are players insured? Not sure about this one. If they are, playing in the middle of a pandemic it would likely invalidate the insurance.
  • Not only would players become infected. They would take the virus home to their families.
"CASE CASE CLUSTER CLUSTER BOOM!"

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Garlick. Out of money by August

Post by Tricky Trevor » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:50 pm


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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by nyclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:09 pm

MT03ALG wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:59 pm
Complete this season before the end of the 2020 and collect TV money.
Christmas break as requested by many managers and possibly players.
Next season to start in January 2021 and finish in November 2021 including break for Euros.
Following season to start in January 2022 and finish in October 2022 giving time to prepare for the World Cup which starts in November 2022.
I hope FIFA will have the foresight to see this possibility.
Best scenario I've seen. Villas-Boas suggested this the other week.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:31 pm

Apparently Bayern Munich are returning to training. Seems the Germans are hopeful of playing football in May.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:32 pm

The clubs need to start buying private antibody tests and in a month or so test the entire squad & reserve then we can start to get a picture of which teams can field XI players.

The results at this stage seem totally unimportant compared to fulfilling our TV obligation so all team can get paid and survive. So I'd be inclined to say no relegation, just get XI players out, keep them safe and uninjured and lets finish the season. Don't care if they look like pre-season friendlies.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:32 pm

I don’t get the £50m claim (for 4 remaining home matches). That seems excessive by £10-20m. Just throwing the numbers around in my head a bit. Plus, the stance seems to be the players and clubs take the hit 50/50. So my guess is that £20m would end up being the likely hit for BFC if the season is cancelled.

Fair to say though that BFC’s prudent approach and solid financial position will stand us in good stead, better than it did in the ITV Digital fiasco. Whilst this “rainy day” could never have been anticipated, I’m glad the club has not overspent before it.

Sadly, like many initiatives up and down the country, it is the kiss of death for any hope of major investment in facilities for the next decade.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:34 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:30 pm
I can't see any way in which the season will resume this year - excepting an 'earlier than expected vaccine' becoming available. This pandemic is likely to be with us for a year. It is highly infectious. If the lockdown is lifted in a few months the virus will start to spread again.

In these circumstances there would be many problems with holding 'behind closed doors matches':
  • All players, managers, officials, backroom staff TV crews etc. would need to be tested before any game. If just one player/manager, backroom staff in a squad tests positive the whole lot of them would have to self isolate. Match abandoned
  • If we don't test, and one infected person is on the pitch he would likely infect a number of his own squad and the opposition teams squad and the officials.
  • A few premiership players have already tested positive. Re-starting the matches in the middle of the pandemic is likely to result in half the players in the premiership becoming infected. Some could develop complications and be out of football for a long time.
  • Are players insured? Not sure about this one. If they are, playing in the middle of a pandemic it would likely invalidate the insurance.
  • Not only would players become infected. They would take the virus home to their families.
"CASE CASE CLUSTER CLUSTER BOOM!"
It seems the Germans are keen to get the show on the road by next month so if we do manage to get our testing up to speed (big if obviously) then there in no reason why we can't be playing July/August at the latest.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:38 pm

randomclaret2 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:01 pm
Are you actually a football fan ?
Yep, but I'm not a fan of the greed.
It's about time football came down from cloud cuckoo land.
There are other businesses going under that employ a lot more people and it's a big fat reality check all round.
Last week some people on here were saying it was hard luck if pubs, theatres, restaurants, music venues didn't get their insurance money, now it's all oh woe the football clubs are in trouble.

Hopefully lessons will be learned from this situation.
Some of the most unappreciated, low-paid, dedicated and devalued people are spending all their day fighting to save the lives of the most over appreciated, high-paid, useless people who are spending all their day doing kick ups with toilet roll.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:01 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:38 pm
Yep, but I'm not a fan of the greed.
It's about time football came down from cloud cuckoo land.
There are other businesses going under that employ a lot more people and it's a big fat reality check all round.
Last week some people on here were saying it was hard luck if pubs, theatres, restaurants, music venues didn't get their insurance money, now it's all oh woe the football clubs are in trouble.

Hopefully lessons will be learned from this situation.
Some of the most unappreciated, low-paid, dedicated and devalued people are spending all their day fighting to save the lives of the most over appreciated, high-paid, useless people who are spending all their day doing kick ups with toilet roll.
Ultimately, football means so much to so many people. You only have to see the celebrations after Danny Ings scored the winner against Blackburn to realise what it meant to Burnley supporters.

Likewise, when Leicester won the league and what it meant to their supporters. A football club isn't like other businesses in that respect. A club going bust can affect so many people, and not in a good way.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:58 pm

Today's curves

Remember we watch Italy play out weeks in advance and now we find ourselves in a worse situation, we're going to suffer more due to poor governance and chronic mismanagement.
EUyX1x9X0AYODRT.jpg
EUyX1x9X0AYODRT.jpg (146.64 KiB) Viewed 1017 times
Last edited by CombatClaret on Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:11 pm

Spijed Wrote: It seems the Germans are keen to get the show on the road by next month so if we do manage to get our testing up to speed (big if obviously) then there in no reason why we can't be playing July/August at the latest.
As long as no players, officials, backroom staff etc. test positive. If they do, on any match, the match will be cancelled and all involved will have to self isolate for two weeks. I don't think that football will be starting again this year.

Many summer sports and other events have already been cancelled:
  • Wimbledon (Jun/July)
  • Indy 500 (Aug 23);
  • Spanish Grand Prix;
  • British Superbike Championship at Silverstone;
  • the boat Race;
  • the Grand National;
  • The Paralympic Games in Tokyo, scheduled to start on 25 August
  • OLYMPICS:due to begin on 24 July
  • The Henley Royal Regatta
  • Chelsea flower show
  • Cricket season has been delayed and will likely be cancelled
  • The Monaco Grand Prix
  • Edinburgh Fringe
  • London Marathon Postoned until at least October
  • Glastonbury Festival
  • Extinction Rebellion Cancelled its London Protest
Other developments
  • Manchester City have handed their stadium over to the NHS
  • The Premier League agrees the season will not resume "until it is safe and appropriate to do so"
  • Spurs have handed their stadium over to help support vulnerable individuals
  • Chelsea have handed their hotel to the NHS
  • Sheffield United have given NHS staff access to their car park
  • All Premier league clubs are helping. Ringing vulnerable people, distributing food, making facilities available.
Perhaps clubs will become increasingly more involved in helping their communities and the NHS in whatever way they can help. I would expect the Premiership and other competitions to cease until the end of the crises.

However, it is more than likely that we will be over the worst of it by this time next year and football will then resume and be as popular than ever.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Right_winger » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:55 pm

Amazingly I find myself in full agreement with Claret on a T. rex

I almost feel dirty...However football ( modern ) certainly is in need of a reset and I personally won’t be disappointed if a few or several high profile clubs go to the wall because of the situation. The first warning about any investment.... your capital is at risk.
This may be a blessing in disguise also, if it causes football to become more realistic financially...

As for finishing g the season off, there has to be a definitive time limit on it. If we get passed a certain date say end of June then it needs to be expunged and start afresh next season.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:03 am

Right_winger wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:55 pm
I personally won’t be disappointed if a few or several high profile clubs go to the wall because of the situation.
Unfortunately, far more smaller clubs will end up going under. Most big clubs have a global reach which means they will be able to survive, whereas many like Bury won't be able to withstand any major loss of income over a period of time.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:08 am

Spijed wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:34 pm
It seems the Germans are keen to get the show on the road by next month so if we do manage to get our testing up to speed (big if obviously) then there in no reason why we can't be playing July/August at the latest.
You are also making the assumption there that everybody will be negative & stay negative, the testing kits will help in confirmation & identifying who’s at risk & who isn’t, the virus will be around for a long time now & it’s something we will have to live with & work around until a vaccine is readily available, the testing kits aren’t magically going to cure people, cultural & behavioural changes will enable making life & the virus manageable.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Claretmatt4 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:39 am

Right_winger wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:55 pm
Amazingly I find myself in full agreement with Claret on a T. rex

I almost feel dirty...However football ( modern ) certainly is in need of a reset and I personally won’t be disappointed if a few or several high profile clubs go to the wall because of the situation. The first warning about any investment.... your capital is at risk.
This may be a blessing in disguise also, if it causes football to become more realistic financially...

As for finishing g the season off, there has to be a definitive time limit on it. If we get passed a certain date say end of June then it needs to be expunged and start afresh next season.
We arent going back in time though. This will pass, it might take months, or a year, but when its over sky will still have the say in football. They will own it and that wint change. There is no reset.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Father Jack » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:35 am

No claret specific information but an interesting long read article on the market in which we will be competing this year for transfers. Let’s hope our scouts are able to use their time wisely because there will definitely be opportunity arising from this chaos.


“How the world of football transfers has been turned on it’s head”.
By the Athletic

April is usually the period where European clubs will finalise their transfer targets, make last trips to erase any doubts and carry out checks on behaviour and character. For the best-run clubs, deals can be all but completed in principle, even if the signing may ultimately depend on how a team finishes the existing campaign. This year, however, everything has changed.
Indeed, FIFA is examining ways to reconfigure the dates and length of the conventional summer transfer window in a manner that would allow seasons to be finished and a period of player trading to take place. The issue is particularly grave as more than 500 players in Europe’s top five leagues have contracts or loan spells that expire on June 30.
As such, budgets are up in the air and targets are changing. Clandestine suited-up meetings in hotel bars have been swapped for Zoom calls as agents and recruitment figures, according to one source, “wear a shirt and tie for the camera, with pyjama bottoms out of sight.” Some clubs appear to have abandoned their focus on future signings, after Newcastle United placed head of recruitment Steve Nickson, assistant Mick Tait and head of academy recruitment Paul Baker on the government’s furlough scheme. Staff emails have been disabled and the rules regarding to furlough insist that no work should take place during this period.
The situation at Tottenham Hotspur is not quite as extreme, as chief scout Steve Hitchen and some other recruitment staff remain employed, albeit on a reduced wage, but some of the operation has been effectively closed down. The two clubs privately argue that this summer’s transfer targets are in place yet it is undeniable that key staff have been taken out of the picture at a tumultuous time.
Elsewhere, however, the picture is rather different. The Athletic spoke to a series of sporting directors, scouts and data analysts across Europe, on the condition of anonymity, to understand how clubs are responding to the challenge, the impact on deals and what we should expect from the next transfer window.

As Newcastle and Tottenham cut back, their rivals in the Premier League and beyond raised their eyebrows.
One Premier League scout was baffled by the decision: “With Spurs, it might be they’ve already decided — a month or two ago — who they were going to go for in discussions with Jose Mourinho. They may have decided they weren’t going to sign six or seven players, but rather two or three to add to the squad. And they may know those players already. So the work may already be done. For Newcastle, though, they are a club who probably do need five or six players every season, and you don’t know who will leave. They are one of a load of clubs near the bottom who don’t know what division they’ll be playing in next season, or who will be leaving — even those who survive in the Premier League could have to sell a few. Teams that are relegated may sign more than 10 players.”
Elsewhere, clubs have taken the reverse approach, sensing an opportunity to carry out the research that is usually hindered by the demands of a live season. Indeed, many clubs believe recruitment departments are set to become absolutely essential to the sustainability of the business, as there are now extensive doubts over future broadcasting deals and sponsorship agreements. One Championship sporting director says: “We, the recruitment guys, can now decide a club’s future more than ever. This is a crucial period to be creative, to gather information, to prepare for every eventuality and ensure the club is saving money by making the right signing not just this summer but also 18 months down the line.”
At one middling Premier League club, the head of recruitment is holding daily calls over Zoom with his analysis team and scouts.
One member of that team gave an insight familiar to many experiences shared by the general public coming to terms with home-working. He says: “It works OK but the problem is that not everyone’s internet is the same strength. When everyone starts talking at the same time, it is a nightmare. Then, there is the delay. It did become a little bit like whoever had the strongest internet would say the most. But it is working well, mostly. Zoom is also excellent for us because we can share a screen with video presentations, which means multiple people can be talked through the slide show at the same time.”
The increased time at home for recruitment figures has opened up new opportunities. One large Scottish club has used this break as their cue to introduce video analysis platforms such as Wyscout for the first time. A Premier League club is focusing on young talents in North America’s MLS after being struck by the performances of Canadian winger Alphonso Davies for Bayern Munich. At one top-six Premier League club, a recruiter has spent much of the past fortnight studying matches from the top three Japanese leagues, while also studying under-23 and under-18 teams in that country.
He says: “To step back and target a whole country like this has been a godsend. We can carry out research and study trends. Sagan Tosu, for example, have lots of young players under 24 and we have been able to examine potential.”
At another club lower down the Premier League table, scouts and analysts have divided up parts of the world and been given special projects. Clubs suspect that post-Brexit immigration rules may make it easier to sign players from South America and as such, one scout was commissioned to make a report to ensure his club are ahead of the curve in those markets. To do so, they use video analysis apps such as Scout7 and Wyscout. The process begins by watching a round of games, then the scout notes down the players who impress and then returns to do intense analysis on those individuals. This will highlight the player’s background, through studying media reports, as well as identifying agents to contact and outlining contractual situations.
The scout explains: “It means that if an agent comes on and says he has a right-back at Velez Sarsfield, we’ll have something on him already. Video work is great for initially finding players. Then you do need to go out and watch them play live. This will give us building blocks for when this is over to go and watch some of these players. Now, more than ever, recruitment is key. Transfer fees won’t be what they were after coronavirus. You won’t be spending £100 million on a player. You’re going to try to get value for money. So is there a £5 million player in Argentina who you can turn into a £25 million player in a year? There may be one or two there.”
Even in the Championship, there is bewilderment at the steps taken by certain Premier League clubs. One Championship sporting director notes: “It is a bizarre and strange decision by Newcastle. Scouting and analysis is the department that you can do most at home. We can create and make more information than ever.”
By placing recruitment staff on furlough, they are out of the game when it comes to dealing with agents. One scout still in work at a Premier League club says he is learning Spanish and has signed up to a video-analyst course during this period. He says: “It is 24-7. I’ll get calls at midnight from agents asking me about their players or from other scouts at the club telling me to have a look at X or Y.”
In scouting circles, there is an expectation that clubs who cut or furlough their scouting staff will regret the decision. One scout at a Champions League club says: “There might be a brain drain from these clubs. Scouts will remember how they have been treated. Scouts can work 60-70 hours a week to much more in many cases. If you are abroad watching game after game, it takes a lot of your life up. I know of one head of academy recruitment in the Premier League who is only on £25,000-per-year and his senior scouts are on £35,000-per-year. They are treated appallingly. These chairman will gladly refurbish boardrooms or knowingly pay over the odds for a striker but the moment they cut costs, it’s the scouts. In the lower leagues, they may only get £400 per month but they work on it like a full-time job. There’s a lack of appreciation.”
A sporting director at a central European club says: “This is typical. When English clubs are relegated, it is always the lowest-paid person in each department who gets cut. It is ridiculous. You have someone earning £50,000 per week and then you make someone earning £20,000-per-year redundant.
“It splinters the clubs and makes a mockery of the family aspect so many clubs seek to promote. I have never understood it. It is not right. But the bigger problem is still to come because if you are reducing wages for your non-playing staff, how can you then, ethically, go and spend £20 million on a second-choice left-back this summer?”

While clubs intensify their information-gathering, the question that lingers is whether chairmen and chief executives will have the financial capacity to act on the data. In France, for example, alarm bells are ringing after broadcasters suspended payments worth up to £100 million to clubs in the top two tiers. With social-distancing guidelines likely to remain in force for several months, Premier League and Football League clubs are fearful they will need to make sizeable repayments to television companies, with top-flight clubs informed that £762 million would be claimed back if the season fails to be completed.
So, can anybody expect the usual billion-pound bonanza in the transfer window?
The answer could be found when one German club this week received a call from a Premier League side, asking for a valuation of one of their players. The club’s sporting director explains: “The Premier League side rang me and asked for the price. They replied: ‘Great, thanks for the information but we just do not know yet if we can afford the amount. It all depends on Sky TV’.”
Another European club’s head of recruitment says: “We don’t know if we’ll be able to buy players, under what terms, and even whether we’re going to survive as a club. We are a healthy club but in the end, if we don’t play matches eventually our existence could be under threat. In terms of deals this summer, we have done all the necessary groundwork, due diligence and hard yards, so we are in good shape. But now, any conversations will need to be by video call and we don’t know what will be possible, so everything has halted. My workload in terms of meeting agents is zero.”
Other clubs are taking a more bullish approach, as top-flight English sides have sensed an opportunity to raid vulnerable clubs elsewhere in Europe. PSV Eindhoven are one club identified as possible prey while Porto, who failed to qualify for the Champions League group stage, are known on the circuit to need to raise more than £50 million — and that was before the pandemic. Valencia, meanwhile, have stated their financial model is based on sustainability and they intend to sell young talented players to finance the business.
Higher up the food chain, Europe’s elite are monitoring Arsenal’s situation, as the club appear likely to have a third year without Champions League football and were struggling to secure a new contract for star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
They will not be the only ones targeted, with most clubs keeping a list of teams who they believe to be in financial trouble.
Another Premier League club’s recruitment analyst says: “Let’s take the view the Premier League completes the season and keeps its cash. If you are in a good financial state, you could clean up in the next window. There’s possibilities of really good deals. Maybe teams could have held onto players but not now. I don’t foresee £100 million deals but you can now pull off signings you wouldn’t have been able to do before. It is going to be really interesting. We do not rely on gate receipts but most clubs in Europe will do, so they will be much more vulnerable and fragile. Then we can say to them, ‘Do you want to sell us a £30 million player for £20 million?’. We will hold the cards. Europe will be a lower market than expected and it will be first-come-first-served. You need to find the most financially desolate clubs and take advantage.”
On English soil, Premier League clubs are zooming in on lower-league sides to exploit. Gillingham’s resources are stretched and they will be forced to accept a lower fee for promising 20-year-old centre-half Jack Tucker, who Southampton are monitoring.
A recruitment figure at one German club says: “I’ll give you an example. Two days ago, I read on Twitter that a club in Slovakia had gone into liquidation. The first thing I did was look at the squad, identify who we have seen and ask our data company to batter that squad and see who we can pillage and who might have been of interest. I wrote in our WhatsApp group, ‘I feel like a vulture’ but my boss said, ‘Clubs will be doing it to us. We will need the money’.”
One German club’s sporting director says: “From what I hear, everything is on hold. Even our contract talks have stopped with players out-of-contract this summer. We can’t do anything until we know how much money we have. We have made offers, which were not initially accepted, but we cannot now return to players with a counter-offer. Due to the ownership rules in Germany, there are far less private investors who can pump money in. We are self-sufficient and we are going to have a massive deficit which affects our ability to trade.
“We have had discussions about our target lists. We knew roughly what our budget was going to be this summer, the maximum we can spend on a player for transfer fees and salaries but it is now all on hold. We will have to sell players to make the money back we are going to lose. Then we will look at free transfers and loans. The loans will need to be a smaller percentage of wages, too. The scouting we are doing now is for free transfers. Even then, those clubs may offer these players better contracts to stay because they cannot afford replacements.”
The Premier League confidence could soon dissipate as restart dates are pushed back and the usual streams of income reduce. One Championship sporting director says: “If they do not play the end of the season, they become as vulnerable as everyone else. Then the market does, in a way, level out, as most clubs will be in the same position. So some clubs will have bigger budgets but I see it decreasing in parallel lines. It is true that the next window looks like a window of loans. If it is to be more than that, we will need a cascade. When the big clubs start to spend, it is a cascade effect.
“We need a big deal to happen to kickstart the market. It may not even be an eye-watering deal, but it will need the biggest buying clubs to feel brave and the selling clubs to be even braver. If you are thinking of selling a player at X price, you have to accept 20 per cent less and be confident you will spend 20 per cent less. Sevilla have been one of the best clubs for that over the years, often selling a little lower against public opinion, because they had the confidence of finding a player for cheaper. It is a challenge but people pay scouting departments to come up with the solutions to cope with these deficits. It is their time to shine.”
The battle for free transfers will be fierce.
One Premier League recruitment director says: “This summer is more looking at back-up options to the original plan. Every club will be in a similar boat. Free transfers will be so much more in demand. In a normal season, you will fight five clubs for a free transfer but this summer, it might be 10 clubs for the same player. It will be ferocious.”

As clubs prepare themselves, even the busiest of sporting directors are concentrating on survival, rather than dealings. One says: “The clubs right now are sharing information about operations, legal issues and staff situations but nobody is making offers or even inquiring.”
During a usual period, one Premier League scout explains that agents are in touch on a daily basis. He says: “You’ll get agents come to you and ask you to look at their player. They’ll come back a day later and ask what you thought of them but you’ve not had a chance to start yet. They think you’re just sitting there all the time, maybe going to one game a week. They don’t understand it. Their player might be good, but you might have five or six players who are as good or better and whom you’ve done the work on.”
Now, however, realism is setting in, although several sources insisted stakeholders are still attempting to pull off deals. A top-six Premier League scout warns: “We still don’t know when travel restrictions will lift. Do we do medicals remotely and trust that? Can we even sign a foreign player if we have no guarantees as to when social distancing measures will lift? What will the insurance be like for players and clubs against the loss of earnings from future lockdowns?”
For agents accustomed to cutting deals, it is a peculiar moment.
One, who represents Premier League and Football League players, says: “A few clubs want to speak to us about players but I am taking it with a pinch of salt because I don’t even know when the season is going to finish, never mind a window opening. I find it all too up in the air. Half of me feels like it doesn’t sit right because people want to sign my players at the moment. How can anyone think of signing a footballer at a time like this? But at the same time, this is a player’s short career and we have a responsibility to them, as representatives and employers.
“As an agent, it depends on the supply and demand. If you have a striker like Erling Haaland, this does not affect him because the top clubs will always want him and will pay a lot for him. His agent is in the best position possible. Lower down, however, clubs will be clear: ‘This is the budget, this is the top earning bracket — take it or you will be out of work’. People often put the blame on players but there are so many actions by clubs that are underhand. I expect them to play on the insecurities and worries of what is happening. They will lowball players in the lower leagues because they can, rather than because they cannot afford it. It will be, ‘You are worried about not having a job, so I do not have to pay you as much’.
“I felt it had been quieter in the past couple of windows anyway and that was due to Brexit uncertainty. But this blows Brexit out of the park — and we still have that all to come, too. The Premier League will be ringfenced to a degree but the big issue will be the Championship. Look at Luton, who talked about how they can’t compete financially as they run a steady ship. A lot of clubs were already spending more than they should, particularly if you study wages as a percentage of revenue. Some clubs are in a whole world of trouble.”
One non-League club have placed their players on furlough and cut wages without prior agreement from the star player and that player’s agent now intends to force a free transfer through this summer, spurning a potential six-figure windfall for the club.
Another leading agent has reconciled himself to a quieter summer. He says: “I know some clubs in the Premier League are saying that a minimum of 50 per cent has been wiped off the budget they planned to spend. Transfer fees and salaries will be lower. People are talking, though. I’m talking to players and clubs about deals. But nobody can say right now, ‘This is the deal, let’s close it’. No way. It is a huge problem. Clubs have their targets and they have not changed; they just cannot make deals. It is impossible. I have agreed one deal in principle but there is no decision on salary or transfer fee, so in reality it is nothing.”
Agents, just like clubs, players, and the rest of the world, can only watch on and wait.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by claretandy » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:40 am

It's an over-exaggeration, TV money would be around 33M according to Sporting Intel, which could be offset by a 30% wage cut or deferral.

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