Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

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CrosspoolClarets
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:48 am

claretandy wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:40 am
It's an over-exaggeration, TV money would be around 33M according to Sporting Intel, which could be offset by a 30% wage cut or deferral.
Yes, that was what I suggested yesterday in an above post, the figure felt high by £10-20m.

Talking of money, I would also remind fellow clarets that we may be paying a few quid a month to EFL Digital Ltd for Clarets Player subscriptions (I think, unless I pay that separately). I’ve just cancelled mine on Paypal. All these little subscriptions to things soon add up in a time of hardship.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:54 am

That @SportingIntel thread

https://twitter.com/sportingintel/statu ... 0393332738

Nick Harris is a well connected and knowledgeable guy who has been looking at football finance for around 20 years at least - but even he says it is a guess and has not stated his assumptions. Burnley have stated there forecast is a worse case assumption - not a current position assumption, their figure may include a 6th or 7th place finish (or higher) and more tv appearances.

Also Nick does not mention the £6m per club to the EFL or £1m per club to NHS - which is an advance to the EFL from next seasons money but paid from this seasons Premier League monies

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:56 am

It's not exaggerated at all. Assuming we finished 10th, which we were very much on course to do, we'd have got about £20m prize money. Even if you're conservative and say we finished 15th, that's still about £15m.

5 matchday, 30 odd tv and 15-20 prize money is very much in the region of 'up to' 50m.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by randomclaret2 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:11 pm

What do you mean by ' 30 odd TV ' ?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:33 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:56 am
It's not exaggerated at all. Assuming we finished 10th, which we were very much on course to do, we'd have got about £20m prize money. Even if you're conservative and say we finished 15th, that's still about £15m.

5 matchday, 30 odd tv and 15-20 prize money is very much in the region of 'up to' 50m.
Prize money is a red herring. Sky Sports don't have as part of their contract that they will pay prize money. Sky sports and other broadcasters agree a total sum for the year that they will pay the PL, and prize money is part of the way the PL chooses to share it out. Two unconnected things.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:41 pm

I would have thought we budget for either getting relegated or the best case scenario of finishing 17th.

Any better and it's a bonus.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:57 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:33 pm
Prize money is a red herring. Sky Sports don't have as part of their contract that they will pay prize money. Sky sports and other broadcasters agree a total sum for the year that they will pay the PL, and prize money is part of the way the PL chooses to share it out. Two unconnected things.
you are right

another way of calculating the £45m Burnley suggested is

potential refund is £762m or £38.1m per club
EFL advance £125m or £6.25m per club
NHS donation £20m or £1m per club

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by randomclaret2 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:59 pm

Wont the share of the £762m be dependant on league position, however that is ultimately decided ?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:13 pm

randomclaret2 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:59 pm
Wont the share of the £762m be dependant on league position, however that is ultimately decided ?
that would be theoretically possible but how do you decide the breakdown - my previous post was just an example of a straight share. There are myriad's of ways to breakdown the share but in everyone there is room for someone to be unhappy - suspect the key is clubs have already received staged payments through the season, based on flat share not merit or TV appearances, what is left would have paid those but that is potentially to be refunded. How are you going to recover TV monies from clubs that has likely already been spent.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by ewanrob » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:57 pm

A hell of a lot of assumptions flying around at the moment, not really sure how anyone can really put these figures out there....all meaningless really.

Lets see where we are at in a month or twos time, in the mean time...stay safe and well.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:24 pm

randomclaret2 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:11 pm
What do you mean by ' 30 odd TV ' ?
30 odd million in tv money

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:25 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:33 pm
Prize money is a red herring. Sky Sports don't have as part of their contract that they will pay prize money. Sky sports and other broadcasters agree a total sum for the year that they will pay the PL, and prize money is part of the way the PL chooses to share it out. Two unconnected things.
Nobody said sky pay prize money. What are you on about?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:27 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:41 pm
I would have thought we budget for either getting relegated or the best case scenario of finishing 17th.

Any better and it's a bonus.
Agreed but up to where the season stopped we were on course for at least £15m hence we vould be missing out on up to 50m when you factor it all in.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Vino blanco » Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:33 pm

Well, if things get really bad, can't we just throw some money into a bucket the next time we go on?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Pstotto » Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:26 pm

Where Euro 2020 was, the final league games can be played, two or three games a week (same as a tournament) so four weeks and even if its behind closed doors with quarantined-first players.

All fans would prefer that to the complete abandonment of the season and something to watch.

The preparation is quarantining all the participants beforehand, like tournament players are anyway.

Is Covid-19 a winter disease like flu? if so it might die off by end of May.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Hozz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:02 pm

Sorry - don’t really care at the moment, just hope everyone comes through this, if football and Burnley FC survive then I guess that is okay but right now, really not very interested how much money is at stake or lost, seems incredibly irrelevant to me.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by thatdberight » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:09 pm

20-odd million multi millionaires taking £100m a year out of the club. Is it only me sees the obvious solution?

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:20 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:09 pm
20-odd million multi millionaires taking £100m a year out of the club. Is it only me sees the obvious solution?
Nearer to £60m - £65m for players wages.
What is it you are suggesting ?
Players with water tight contracts voluntary give up a years salary ?

If that’s your “obvious solution” it might need rethinking. Not sure any footballer would do that knowing that even if the club go bust they will still get paid their wages.

It could happen but I just could not see it. If the club goes bust they just find another club.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:48 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:25 pm
Nobody said sky pay prize money. What are you on about?
You suggested that if the Premier League receive (say) a quarter less TV income, then Burnley would lose (say) a quarter of the general TV money and all of the prize money. We wouldn't. The so-called "prize money" is just part of the way TV income is shared; it isn't a reward in itself.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by thatdberight » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:04 pm

TVC15 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:20 pm
Nearer to £60m - £65m for players wages.
What is it you are suggesting ?
Players with water tight contracts voluntary give up a years salary ?

If that’s your “obvious solution” it might need rethinking. Not sure any footballer would do that knowing that even if the club go bust they will still get paid their wages.

It could happen but I just could not see it. If the club goes bust they just find another club.
There's the problem. Players win every which way. I hope that out of this comes a complete overhaul of the employment of footballers. Perhaps they'll continue to mis-step and it will be possible to legislate to stop them having the sort of contracts they have.

PS Wage bill was given as £82m 18 months ago by The Times

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:12 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:04 pm
There's the problem. Players win every which way. I hope that out of this comes a complete overhaul of the employment of footballers. Perhaps they'll continue to mis-step and it will be possible to legislate to stop them having the sort of contracts they have.
Possibly - but when you have something crazy like the football creditors rule written into law you have got to wonder how much will there is to change.
A start would be to get rid of this then at least players have a small interest in their club not going bust.

As for players contracts it’s all about supply and demand. Whilst after this there may be less money around football I cannot see their contracts changing to the extent that you can lay off a player without paying up his contract.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by peter_nobles_fringe » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:13 pm

Hozz wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:02 pm
Sorry - don’t really care at the moment, just hope everyone comes through this, if football and Burnley FC survive then I guess that is okay but right now, really not very interested how much money is at stake or lost, seems incredibly irrelevant to me.
I am totally out of this 20 years in the same seat loyalty to the club it’s just distgusting the greed and money in the game sky sports etc. Totally over analysed and talked about I don’t give a monkeys toss who loses how many millions.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:31 pm

peter_nobles_fringe wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:13 pm
I am totally out of this 20 years in the same seat loyalty to the club it’s just distgusting the greed and money in the game sky sports etc. Totally over analysed and talked about I don’t give a monkeys toss who loses how many millions.
But you only have to see how upsetting it was to the supporters of Bury to realise the importance of sport in many lives as one example.

Take that away and you are left with little to look forward to in life.

That in itself causes many more problems in society.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by thatdberight » Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:56 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:31 pm
But you only have to see how upsetting it was to the supporters of Bury to realise the importance of sport in many lives as one example.

Take that away and you are left with little to look forward to in life.

That in itself causes many more problems in society.
But we could reset. 18,000 people at the match is what makes the experience. The quality of the play isn't actually that important.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:12 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:56 pm
But we could reset. 18,000 people at the match is what makes the experience. The quality of the play isn't actually that important.
Yet when we aren't competing at this level anything up to aroudn 8,000 of those 18,000 forget where the game is played due to a lower level of quality.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:18 am

dsr wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:48 pm
You suggested that if the Premier League receive (say) a quarter less TV income, then Burnley would lose (say) a quarter of the general TV money and all of the prize money. We wouldn't. The so-called "prize money" is just part of the way TV income is shared; it isn't a reward in itself.
I didn't say that at all but thanks, as ever, for your contribution.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:04 pm

Pstotto wrote : Is Covid-19 a winter disease like flu? if so it might die off by end of May.
Answer: No. It will not die off but might slow down a bit.

Covid-19 has started to take off in equatorial regions and also in the Southern hemisphere where summer is coming to an end. The run up has taken a bit longer but the virus is now spreading in these regions. Also, a major difference with the flue is that there is no vaccine for Covid-19. With the flue, a large number of the population are vaccinated.

It is possible that the spread will be slowed down if we have warm weather mixed with showers of rain. The virus does not like heat, humidity or UV light (e.g sunlight). Also, the human immune system is more active in the summer and Vitamin D levels increase. Another factor is that there are less people walking around with runny noses in the summer.

The virus likes cold weather and should spread more rapidly in the winter. If the 'isolation rules' are relaxed in mid summer it is likely that they will need to be reinstated in the Autumn. Hopefully there will be a vaccine by next spring.

It is unlikely that any football will be played until next spring.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by lakesider » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:22 pm

I think when a board member offers news to the fans and the general public it should be balanced. Mike is developing a reputation of projecting the gloomier side of potential disasters thus exacerbating the 'little old Burnley' image. Unfortunately a lot of things aren't discussed in public about the clubs affairs and this adds to the gloomy picture and promotes guesswork from the likes of myself. It's left me unclear and makes one make surmises that may or not be rational thinking but here goes:-
1.)
We currently have approximately, an 82 million annual wage bill. (from The Times)
During these exceptional times the expectation is that there will be a reduction in this number albeit temporary. Lets not quibble. Lets call it a 50% saving so that's 40 million that's not being spent annually.
2.) There are 4 home matches left. Is he saying that 5M will be lost? Most of us are season ticket holders so that revenue is in and recognised. Are we going to lose 5M from walk on's to 4 home matches?
3.) There is talk of running the rest of the league programme via TV in empty grounds. Will there not be revenue associated with this?
4.) Every club apart from the ones funded by sugar daddies are in exactly the same boat so why is the announcement about just Burnley?

In the absence of a 'balanced' announcement one might think that this is to soften the blow to the players and fans about another powder drying exercise.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:50 pm

lakesider wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:22 pm
I think when a board member offers news to the fans and the general public it should be balanced. Mike is developing a reputation of projecting the gloomier side of potential disasters thus exacerbating the 'little old Burnley' image. Unfortunately a lot of things aren't discussed in public about the clubs affairs and this adds to the gloomy picture and promotes guesswork from the likes of myself. It's left me unclear and makes one make surmises that may or not be rational thinking but here goes:-
1.)
We currently have approximately, an 82 million annual wage bill. (from The Times)
During these exceptional times the expectation is that there will be a reduction in this number albeit temporary. Lets not quibble. Lets call it a 50% saving so that's 40 million that's not being spent annually.
2.) There are 4 home matches left. Is he saying that 5M will be lost? Most of us are season ticket holders so that revenue is in and recognised. Are we going to lose 5M from walk on's to 4 home matches?
3.) There is talk of running the rest of the league programme via TV in empty grounds. Will there not be revenue associated with this?
4.) Every club apart from the ones funded by sugar daddies are in exactly the same boat so why is the announcement about just Burnley?

In the absence of a 'balanced' announcement one might think that this is to soften the blow to the players and fans about another powder drying exercise.
It would seem you missed the whole point of the released information and what has been posted on this thread

I thought it was all perfectly clear, and given the worst case scenario the numbers looked right when you look at the big picture of income (I know not everyone sees it the same) he also seemed completely in line with reasonable expectation with regards to cashflow in that scenario - there will be many in our league that will run out before then if some haven't already dipped into overdrafts/credit facilities.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:51 pm

lakesider wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:22 pm
I think when a board member offers news to the fans and the general public it should be balanced. Mike is developing a reputation of projecting the gloomier side of potential disasters thus exacerbating the 'little old Burnley' image. Unfortunately a lot of things aren't discussed in public about the clubs affairs and this adds to the gloomy picture and promotes guesswork from the likes of myself. It's left me unclear and makes one make surmises that may or not be rational thinking but here goes:-
1.)
We currently have approximately, an 82 million annual wage bill. (from The Times)
During these exceptional times the expectation is that there will be a reduction in this number albeit temporary. Lets not quibble. Lets call it a 50% saving so that's 40 million that's not being spent annually.
2.) There are 4 home matches left. Is he saying that 5M will be lost? Most of us are season ticket holders so that revenue is in and recognised. Are we going to lose 5M from walk on's to 4 home matches?
3.) There is talk of running the rest of the league programme via TV in empty grounds. Will there not be revenue associated with this?
4.) Every club apart from the ones funded by sugar daddies are in exactly the same boat so why is the announcement about just Burnley?

In the absence of a 'balanced' announcement one might think that this is to soften the blow to the players and fans about another powder drying exercise.
When you say let’s not quibble about it - that’s a rather sweeping and very likely wrong assumption you make.
Firstly our last reported wage bill is £87m as at year end June 2019. Garlick will have they current wage bill as at today and it’s likely to be a bit higher.
We are still paying all the staff - nobody has been laid off. So not sure where you get the 50% saving. Even if we did it would be nowhere near this figure for the non playing staff.

The £5m loss of match day revenue from 4 games I agree does look way too high - he’s either exaggerating this or it’s something linked to our sponsorship / advertising deals and potential 20% reduction in these from losing 4 games ?
We would also lose a chunk on the corporate hospitality but still it looks high.

Garlick is talking about this total impact if the season is cancelled - if it’s played behind closed doors then we are looking at a much smaller number which is probably less than the £5m as we would not lose any sponsorship / advertising with it being on TV.

As for why Garlick has done this - it’s very probably because we have not got sugar daddies. Our current board are unlikely to subsidise losses to this extent.

I also would not be surprised if as a club we did go down the furlough route. With upwards of probably 200 non playing staff now we are probably looking at a wage bill for them of between £500k and a million a month.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:56 pm

TVC15 wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:51 pm

As for why Garlick has done this - it’s very probably because we have not got sugar daddies. Our current board are unlikely to subsidise losses to this extent.
It is amazing how many serious and respected journalists are currently saying all Premier League clubs are owned by billionaires as they have a dig at them

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by quoonbeatz » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:32 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:50 pm
there will be many in our league that will run out before then if some haven't already dipped into overdrafts/credit facilities.
Seems incredible really that some will have taken out short term loans ahead of the tv and prize money being paid and will now be looking at an even bigger shortfall.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by ClaretTony » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:44 pm

Dyche was on Talksport talking about Garlick's money running out phone call on Sky Sports News.

Dyche said: ""The chairman reacted quickly and I think over the weekend will have gone 'hang on a minute, let's look at the bigger picture' and then there is a calming period comes because it is highly likely at some point this does get back off and running, highly likely not unlikely, but it has to be done i a safe manner so therefore the timing is very important.

"I think all chairmen will be fidgeting around going 'what does this actually mean?'

"What it will do is that it might remind people of the good side of football, how powerful football is, how it is important to the community. Burnley Football Club is certainly important to the Burnley community. Our community department is still doing whatever they can through whatever way they can do it.

"I think it will remind people of that good feeling and the good stuff, there is a lot of good stuff going on at the moment but it does take a reaction and a calming period and letting the dust settle as they get towards what will hopefully be good outcomes for everyone."
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by randomclaret2 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:46 pm

Sean Dyche, the Voice of Reason

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:49 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:32 pm
Seems incredible really that some will have taken out short term loans ahead of the tv and prize money being paid and will now be looking at an even bigger shortfall.
more incredible that it is regarded as standard/normal practice in the top two divisions

the type of thing some of our fans wanted us to do as part of the "speculate to accumulate" bandwagon

but then again I have long been a prepare for rainy days type

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:23 pm

Sean's full piece on talksport today is here from 19mins in

https://talksport.com/radio/listen-again/1586163600/

carries on to this https://talksport.com/radio/listen-agai ... 586165400/

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by KateR » Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:54 pm

Chester Perry wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:49 pm
more incredible that it is regarded as standard/normal practice in the top two divisions

the type of thing some of our fans wanted us to do as part of the "speculate to accumulate" bandwagon

but then again I have long been a prepare for rainy days type
I really can't see why it's incredible.
It's normal practice for every business to look to the future and see firstly how they can sustain and secondly how they can improve the future position. All businesses of any size will do a business plan that will have variables and also do risk assessments, if you were to look at a risk assessment regarding said loan, you would look at what would stop me in terms of revenue or reduced revenue. You would look within football in what would stop me playing and bringing revenue, a pandemic would be on the list of reasons, you would look at past experiences, has it happened before, how often? Answer is clearly never or extremely rare, therefore proceed with rest of the business plan, borrow money against future earnings is a strategy often employed and will of course have different outcomes depending on how it is managed against risk. For football assessments are made when promoted to PL, will present status allow us to stay in the PL, yes - do nothing, no- probably not, so do we care if we drop down again, no - carry on, yes - make change/how borrow money because we don't have cash. How you structure loans becomes a different subject as is how you manage new players contracts due to still failing, a well known and documented risk that will be addressed (by good business people)

Speculate to accumulate is not a sound business decision and don't think the meaning applies here although I agree it is often used.

Chester Perry
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:22 pm

KateR wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:54 pm
I really can't see why it's incredible.
It's normal practice for every business to look to the future and see firstly how they can sustain and secondly how they can improve the future position. All businesses of any size will do a business plan that will have variables and also do risk assessments, if you were to look at a risk assessment regarding said loan, you would look at what would stop me in terms of revenue or reduced revenue. You would look within football in what would stop me playing and bringing revenue, a pandemic would be on the list of reasons, you would look at past experiences, has it happened before, how often? Answer is clearly never or extremely rare, therefore proceed with rest of the business plan, borrow money against future earnings is a strategy often employed and will of course have different outcomes depending on how it is managed against risk. For football assessments are made when promoted to PL, will present status allow us to stay in the PL, yes - do nothing, no- probably not, so do we care if we drop down again, no - carry on, yes - make change/how borrow money because we don't have cash. How you structure loans becomes a different subject as is how you manage new players contracts due to still failing, a well known and documented risk that will be addressed (by good business people)

Speculate to accumulate is not a sound business decision and don't think the meaning applies here although I agree it is often used.
If you were not talking about football I would be inclined to agree with you, but there are too many factors that are beyond the control of the business manager, too few opportunities to win and very definite opportunities to be a loser even when you believe you have made all the right decisions/investments. In that context entering into a situation of revolving credit is just costing money in the long run, very few clubs get out of it unless they are one of the few winners, it is truly shocking how high up the cash in hand league table our club is given it's turnover. Even higher if you look at cash flow v fixed costs

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Vegas Claret » Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:38 pm

StuffyClaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:15 am
Question: Does the £5 million loss in matchday revenue include an assumed refund of partial season ticket fees? If this is the case I am pretty sure that the majority of Clarets will be happy to write that money off (next seasons payments are a separate issue). Obviously I would be a fool to assume that this would be the case but I definitely don't plan to be chasing BFC for the balance of my 2019/20 payment.
It's twix sales

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:40 pm

KateR wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:54 pm
I really can't see why it's incredible.
It's normal practice for every business to look to the future and see firstly how they can sustain and secondly how they can improve the future position. All businesses of any size will do a business plan that will have variables and also do risk assessments, if you were to look at a risk assessment regarding said loan, you would look at what would stop me in terms of revenue or reduced revenue. You would look within football in what would stop me playing and bringing revenue, a pandemic would be on the list of reasons, you would look at past experiences, has it happened before, how often? Answer is clearly never or extremely rare, therefore proceed with rest of the business plan, borrow money against future earnings is a strategy often employed and will of course have different outcomes depending on how it is managed against risk. For football assessments are made when promoted to PL, will present status allow us to stay in the PL, yes - do nothing, no- probably not, so do we care if we drop down again, no - carry on, yes - make change/how borrow money because we don't have cash. How you structure loans becomes a different subject as is how you manage new players contracts due to still failing, a well known and documented risk that will be addressed (by good business people)

Speculate to accumulate is not a sound business decision and don't think the meaning applies here although I agree it is often used.
I’m guessing you have had little involvement with football clubs and how they are ran ? - no disrespect intended.

I have been heavily involved in the sector in my banking career with the likes of Man City, Liverpool, Leeds, Celtic, Chelsea, Sheff Wed and many others as my customer.
There is a reason that many banks pulled out of this sector for lending purposes years ago - they are basket cases !

There is no template that they follow for how to run a club and the egos of the people running them are through the roof - unfortunately so were the egos of the Bank directors and executives who decided they wanted to be associated with these clubs. Some / many of the risks taken by clubs and banks were absolutely crazy - these would never have been agreed for any other sector / type of business.

It was only in the 2008 / 2009 crash and the tightening of PRA guidelines that things finally began to be more sensible and many people (including where I worked) pulled out of the sector all together.

Football clubs often live for the here and now - they rarely have a 5 or 10 year strategic plan...some might say they do but in reality it’s about the next 12 months / season and as soon as there is a change in manager or owners you can rip everything up that went before.

As for planning for a pandemic - that is about as far away from the thoughts of a football club as I could possibly imagine. Most of them don’t even plan for relegation even though the stats show there is a 90% chance of it happening.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by KateR » Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:32 pm

TVC15 wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:40 pm
I’m guessing you have had little involvement with football clubs and how they are ran ? - no disrespect intended.

I have been heavily involved in the sector in my banking career with the likes of Man City, Liverpool, Leeds, Celtic, Chelsea, Sheff Wed and many others as my customer.
There is a reason that many banks pulled out of this sector for lending purposes years ago - they are basket cases !

There is no template that they follow for how to run a club and the egos of the people running them are through the roof - unfortunately so were the egos of the Bank directors and executives who decided they wanted to be associated with these clubs. Some / many of the risks taken by clubs and banks were absolutely crazy - these would never have been agreed for any other sector / type of business.

It was only in the 2008 / 2009 crash and the tightening of PRA guidelines that things finally began to be more sensible and many people (including where I worked) pulled out of the sector all together.

Football clubs often live for the here and now - they rarely have a 5 or 10 year strategic plan...some might say they do but in reality it’s about the next 12 months / season and as soon as there is a change in manager or owners you can rip everything up that went before.

As for planning for a pandemic - that is about as far away from the thoughts of a football club as I could possibly imagine. Most of them don’t even plan for relegation even though the stats show there is a 90% chance of it happening.
You are 100% correct in the involvement of football clubs and how they are run, and did not see as an insult, a very valid point, also same as response from Chester, love the name by the way :)

However have been involved with numerous businesses large and small, particularly regarding business planning over the last 15 years including setting up several new businesses in new regions including those in a new venture with an unknown partner. Additionally I have worked with numerous banks, including the World Bank and have actually done a couple of studies for national banks from African nations regarding review/commenting on financial planning by companies wanting Gov. grants to start there business, but that's probably 15 to 20 years ago.

I do recognize a football business is different, however I don't see a huge difference, I can see some clubs are merely playthings and a mechanism to flaunt or store funds by billionaires and they would be run very different. However most have CEO's directors who are more from the business world and while I definitely don't know I would imagine (strongly) that they do have yearly plans and also perhaps 5 year plans. I don't think I would ever be convinced otherwise unless a person running a club was to tell me so but I do understand your message.

As in business I am also asked to review some strategic plans before the executive board see them and provide input that will go with the plan for final review/assessment and approval/rejection. I see many that could be in the speculate to accumulate bracket plus some that are clearly designed by someone(s) to elevate themselves in the company, gain more responsibility and of course salary/prestige. Many of these are organic growth but a fair few with an acquisition as the only way they can move forward.

I do like looking at organizational limitations and the key people meant to make the strategy work, this is a difficult ask and unless you can bring new staff in to actually manage and implement change then very little will happen in reality, some are relatively easy and small incremental steps, others are huge leaps. I see football players being those key staff you bring in to make the aspirational changes work that the board/manager have deemed required, part of every club's investment in the future, you can add a new stadium, training facilities, yet those are one off and not yearly and akin to an acquisition.

We can all point to numerous clubs with a disastrous history where it played out for all to see, but some clubs have invested in players and done well, one of the bigger challenges in my opinion is culture, not enough businesses pay enough attention to this, thankfully BFC & SD does and it makes a difference. I have always held the belief in that the recruitment planning are critical to success unless you are one of the few that can throw money at things, buy, no good, sell, business tinkering, where the real risks don't have to be even considered.

I would also agree planning for a pandemic will not be a well thought out process, one that would be immediately dismissed if it was thought of, my point was more around, we buy players, what happens if when we are relegated. I think the results also show that even this simplest of thoughts around risk planning in some clubs was , being kind, not well thought out.

I think it's an interesting subject and very thankful with how BFC is run from what I know/read, could it be better, yes I think so but it's a mute point, we probably disagree totally on how far apart football clubs are run to everyday businesses but it's not a problem if are not agreeing.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by TVC15 » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:01 pm

KateR wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:32 pm




I think it's an interesting subject and very thankful with how BFC is run from what I know/read, could it be better, yes I think so but it's a mute point, we probably disagree totally on how far apart football clubs are run to everyday businesses but it's not a problem if are not agreeing.
Just to be clear I’m not saying how a lot of football clubs have been ran or are still being run is the right way - far from it.
I’m trying to provide some insight as to the reality at many clubs and a bit of insight into some of the reasons why.
A lot of the new owners are of course very successful businessmen in their own right but even then they often will not treat their football clubs in the same way - it’s why it’s often described as their expensive play thing !

The main thing that has changed in the last 10 or 15 years is the influx of billionaire owners and a much reduced reliance on Banks to finance football clubs (reciprocated by a much reduced appetite from banks to lend to them).
This has obviously coincided with the massive increases in TV money and the riches on offer to reach the promised land.
I don’t think this has meant that many more clubs have improved how they are ran commercially - most still have a massive amount of wastage and often a surprisingly poor amount of commercial acumen for a business of this size.

As for Burnley I think the things we have got correct are finding the right balance - partly out of necessity because we do not have the sugar daddy billions to fall back on. It’s worked to our favour but of course the success on the pitch has been the biggest factor / reason we have been able to do this. We took an absolutely huge risk back in 2009 and without the promotion under Coyle I am pretty sure we would have been looking at administration with what happened with the markets and the loans to Flood’s companies which would have been called in due to the collapse of Modus.
I doubt whether many “normal” businesses would have taken this risk...we got lucky and (for now) the rest is as they say history
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by KateR » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:12 pm

thank you for the reply and do agree, I had my own thoughts around Flood back in those days but often we get the so called perfect storm or black swans, it's always a risk making change. As we know many would like to see a billionaire buyer come in and elevate us to the mega club they desire, for me that is a very good description of "be careful what you wish for", I'm very happy to see the board and SD carry on for as long as my lifetime.

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:17 pm

KateR - TVC15 - great posts/discussion points filled with real knowledge and experience - thanks, love it when this happens
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Chester Perry » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:03 pm

Mike Garlick on 5Live today - from 40:40 - we will not be furloughing staff in the short term, situation may change if no sign of resumption in July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000h03d

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Spijed » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:48 pm

Spain to get the season started again?

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... vier-tebas

“A protocol is being drafted by three medical teams over the last two weeks for a return to training which involves the possibility of doing coronavirus tests and isolation in dressing rooms. When? We can’t say at the moment. The Spanish medical authorities will tell us. There is a state of alarm until 26 April and we will not start training until that point at the very earliest. The most probable options at the moment for matches returning are 28-29 May, 6-7 June and 28-29 June.
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Rowls » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:54 pm

Spijed wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:48 pm
Spain to get the season started again?

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... vier-tebas

“A protocol is being drafted by three medical teams over the last two weeks for a return to training which involves the possibility of doing coronavirus tests and isolation in dressing rooms. When? We can’t say at the moment. The Spanish medical authorities will tell us. There is a state of alarm until 26 April and we will not start training until that point at the very earliest. The most probable options at the moment for matches returning are 28-29 May, 6-7 June and 28-29 June.
Oh lord please let there be some footy to watch on tv!
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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by Tribesmen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:24 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:54 pm
Oh lord please let there be some footy to watch on tv!
Footy , hummmm sorry i have been locked away and cant remember what it is .

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Re: Clarets facing up to £50 million loss

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:50 pm

The Australian Rugby League are working flat out to try and get something running. Current thinking is to have 2 groups of 8 teams playing each other in two separate locked down areas, in American-style conferences. Winner of each division plays in the final, something like that.

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