Will Covid 19 make Burnley Stronger

[Burnley87]

Let me start to say this is a tragedy to anybody effected by this

As with the ITV digital collapse in 2001 its massively effected the football league and unfortunately for the fans of these clubs, this outbreak will effect these clubs possibly more than any other due to the lower TV money and more reliance on gate receipts

A large proportion of Burnley’s transfer activity comes from the Championship and I was wondering where before championship clubs offer players at inflated prices and players in general wanting inflated wages we were becoming prices out of the market with other clubs having big benefactors.

Now the lower league clubs are becoming more desperate and players wanting to get into the premier league for more security with wages will this make us stronger as a club for the next 4/5 years.

I would like to stress I wouldn’t want any other football club to go under for the sake of this, especially clubs that are run right.

However recently it’s been made clear that Premier League football was running away from teams like Burnley and now I’m wondering if this has rained that in and now we become stronger for all of this

[Bin Ont Turf]

It never reins but it pours.

[Jamesy]

We won’t be stronger if football doesn’t resume until early next year which is what is now being forecast. Millions in TV money will have to be paid back. Circa 50 million will have to be paid to our playing squad. Also their transfer values will reduce to a fraction of their value now. As Garlick stated a month ago, we could go bust if there is no football for a lengthy period.

[FactualFrank]

We won’t be stronger if football doesn’t resume until early next year which is what is now being forecast.

The current forecast is June 13th for the Premier League.

[Jamesy]

Well that forecast is now wildly optimistic. Going on today’s latest news it looks likely the Premier League will now be guided by chief medical officer’s advice.
Expect the announcement soon that the Premier league 2019/20 season is null and void.

[FactualFrank]

The forecast is still currently June 13th. Anything else is just guesswork and assumptions.

[jedi_master]

Whatever happens, and I don't care how this sounds, I will be happy to have a club to go back to after all of this is done. Stronger or not, relegation fodder or not after mass sales, it doesn't bother me at this point.

As long as the club survives, and my family/friends and myself are all safe then whatever state we're in it will be a really fantastic moment to be able to safely attend Turf Moor again.

For what it's worth, I don't think that will be until August onwards in 2021.

[Grumps]

We won’t be stronger if football doesn’t resume until early next year which is what is now being forecast. Millions in TV money will have to be paid back. Circa 50 million will have to be paid to our playing squad. Also their transfer values will reduce to a fraction of their value now. As Garlick stated a month ago, we could go bust if there is no football for a lengthy period.

Did he say we would go bust?

[Jamesy]

He said we COULD go bust.

[Grumps]

He said we COULD go bust.

Sorry, I used the wrong word, did he say we could go bust? Or was it a badly written newspaper article the next day which misquoted him?

[Jamesy]

Sorry, he said we will go bust. This was in national press on 5th April. He cited TV revenue as a major factor.

[Jamesy]

The forecast is still currently June 13th. Anything else is just guesswork and assumptions.

Frank, I have no wish to rubbish what you are saying, however it is becoming obvious to most of us that we will not be playing football again by June 13th.

[Grumps]

Sorry, he said we will go bust. This was in national press on 5th April. He cited TV revenue as a major factor.

Read his statement. He does not say that!!! Like I said it was a misquoted article in the press

[Jamesy]

Has Mike Garlick actually said he was misquoted?

[Darthlaw]

Whatever happens, and I don't care how this sounds, I will be happy to have a club to go back to after all of this is done.

THIS.

As a PL club with fairly decent amount of coffers in the bank, we're better insulated than most but I fear the longer this drags on the more we're looking at a cataclysmic change to English football.

For those who rely on non broadcasting money i.e. League 1 downwards, the FA are currently asking them to continue funding failing businesses with no idea of when they be able to recover. They're having to keep paying players who might not play again this year heading into administration and, no doubt, liquidation.

For PL and Championship teams, the TV money has been advanced and it's not insurmountable to see the league offering more televised games (when football does restart) in lieu of a financial clawback. But when this season's TV money runs out, SKy and the like ain't going to be forking out next seasons money. PL & Championship clubs will be in the same boat as those below them.

It's doomsday, obviously, but I can see a lot of teams being forced to lay off playing staff until football restarts again, in order to stay in existence. When it restarts, they'd have to re-sign their players on. It's certainly not viable to keep paying wages on a 'how long is a piece of string' mentality.

Unfortunately, as I see it, English football needs to decide whether it wants to protect sporting morality, through finishing the league season, or the participants by null and voiding the season and freezing all league memberships for those clubs that can weather the storm.

[Gordaleman]

This is Garlick's statement according to Lancashire Live. The words "Could or would go bust" don't seem to appear anywhere.

Burnley chairman Mike Garlick has warned that the Clarets will run out of money by August if the Premier League is not completed and next season is delayed.
The Clarets released a statement on Saturday morning saying they faced a £50million financial shortfall should the 2019-20 season, suspended indefinitely due to Coronavirus, not resume.
Burnley said that they would lose £5m in lost match day income and £45m in broadcasting money.
The Clarets released their annual accounts this week which showed a profit of just over £4m and they do have cash reserves.
But Garlick has sent a stark message to reinforce how important it is to clubs in the Premier League that the campaign is concluded.
“I can’t speak for other clubs and I don’t know their financial positions and all I can speak on is our club and our financial position.
“That is why we are very, very determined that when it is of course safe to do so we really do want to finish this season.
“We voted unanimously to finish the season so it’s clear everyone wants to get the job done. It’s crystal clear that finishing the season is by far the best, if only real outcome for the Premier League clubs.”
It still seems likely that the top flight will resume and be played to a conclusion, meaning any major financial problems for the Clarets and other clubs would be avoided.

[Jamesy]

Thanks for that Gordaleman. However, the last sentence is looking less and less likely as the days tick on. That is what I was emphasising in my initial post.

[Grumps]

Thanks for that Gordaleman. However, the last sentence is looking less and less likely as the days tick on. That is what I was emphasising in my initial post.

No it wasn't, you've argued over several posts that he said we would or could have gone bust.

Simple fact is, he didn't.

[ClaretAndJew]

I suppose it makes sense we'll run out of money when it's been ten years since our first promotion to the PL with that money lasting us ten years.

[Jamesy]

No it wasn't, you've argued over several posts that he said we would or could have gone bust.

Simple fact is, he didn't.

Ok then fine. That clears things up, we have no need to be concerned then. Back to the OP and ignoring what Garlick did or didn’t say or the newspaper article, you think we will be stronger then or weaker?

[Grumps]

Ok then fine. That clears things up, we have no need to be concerned then. Back to the OP and ignoring what Garlick did or didn’t say or the newspaper article, you think we will be stronger then or weaker?

It will be the same as always, we will struggle to attract players if richer clubs are in for them
Some clubs will go further into debt, funded by rich owners. We will possibly lose all our well managed profits.
So to answer your question I think we will be worse off.

[Quickenthetempo]

With having around 43 million in the bank and the worse case scenario being we lose 50m (although I don't think he took the savings from non operating costs into account) we would come out of it 7m in debt.

Can you really see a premier league club going under for being 7m in debt?

Think Blackburn and 185m in debt.

[TVC15]

With having around 43 million in the bank and the worse case scenario being we lose 50m (although I don't think he took the savings from non operating costs into account) we would come out of it 7m in debt.

Can you really see a premier league club going under for being 7m in debt?

Think Blackburn and 185m in debt.

No we would probably not go bust if the debt was £7m. But that depends on whether the current owners would be prepared to subsidise that debt.
Back in 2009 if we would not have gone up there’s a good chance we would have gone bust and the debt would have been around £15m.
Remember our directors businesses are also likely to have been hit by the crisis.

The real problem is if the impact of the crisis starts to delay playing beyond 3 months. For every month we don’t play then our wage bill racks up at around £9m a month. A 3 months delay and the debt is nearer to £35m.

Our owners are not Venkys - whilst they run the clubs finances brilliantly and do not take any salaries or dividends from the club I have never got the impression that they would be prepared to sink tens of millions into the club with a real risk of never getting it back.

[Spijed]

I wonder how attitudes will change in the coming weeks and months if supporters who think the current season should be scrapped start to see their own clubs in real financial difficulty.

I suspect there would be a big change in mindset.

[Quickenthetempo]

No we would probably not go bust if the debt was £7m. But that depends on whether the current owners would be prepared to subsidise that debt.
Back in 2009 if we would not have gone up there’s a good chance we would have gone bust and the debt would have been around £15m.
Remember our directors businesses are also likely to have been hit by the crisis.

The real problem is if the impact of the crisis starts to delay playing beyond 3 months. For every month we don’t play then our wage bill racks up at around £9m a month. A 3 months delay and the debt is nearer to £35m.

Our owners are not Venkys - whilst they run the clubs finances brilliantly and do not take any salaries or dividends from the club I have never got the impression that they would be prepared to sink tens of millions into the club with a real risk of never getting it back.

They are valid points but in Premier league football, we could just sell one single player.
Somebody would buy the club that's worth 200m at a knockdown price.

The wage bill isn't anywhere near 9m a month and is very bonus related which they won't get.

[Dy1geo]

I wonder how attitudes will change in the coming weeks and months if supporters who think the current season should be scrapped start to see their own clubs in real financial difficulty.

I suspect there would be a big change in mindset.

I started supporting Burnley in 1985 and the club were in far more financial difficulties than they are likely to be in the next few months/years. This time all clubs are suffering even those with billionaire backing them will have to face up to the new reality.

In my opinion until there is the vaccine, human behaviour will dictate the course of events and a large percentage of people will avoid crowds and visiting shops, going on planes if the virus is still around in large numbers. This will ultimately affect the economy and if people’s incomes fall they will cancel Sky and not pay for PPV’s etc.

With regards football behind closed doors Simon Jordan said the industry risks a charge of corporate manslaughter if a player dies of the virus. Gary Neville said one of his players has Asthma so he couldn’t expect or want him to play.

[TVC15]

They are valid points but in Premier league football, we could just sell one single player.
Somebody would buy the club that's worth 200m at a knockdown price.

The wage bill isn't anywhere near 9m a month and is very bonus related which they won't get.

£85m wage bill as at June 2019.
So yep got my maths wrong ! - nearer to £7m a month.

I know we could start to sell players but they will be at knockdown prices in this climate and starts the whole spiral of weakening the team and increasing the risk of relegation. The chance of someone buying us will also diminish in parallel with increased chance of relegation.

I don’t think we will go bust either - not in the short or medium term at least. But I think the point is - and the irony - is that despite how well the club is ran financially that in this type of unprecedented crisis as a club we end up more vulnerable than many other teams in this league because we do not have their deep pockets to bail out and subsidise their clubs like many of them already do.

[Quickenthetempo]

£85m wage bill as at June 2019.
So yep got my maths wrong ! - nearer to £7m a month.

I know we could start to sell players but they will be at knockdown prices in this climate and starts the whole spiral of weakening the team and increasing the risk of relegation. The chance of someone buying us will also diminish in parallel with increased chance of relegation.

I don’t think we will go bust either - not in the short or medium term at least. But I think the point is - and the irony - is that despite how well the club is ran financially that in this type of unprecedented crisis as a club we end up more vulnerable than many other teams in this league because we do not have their deep pockets to bail out and subsidise their clubs like many of them already do.

I know we're a year behind at least when finances get issued so could be more, but Dyche stated the wage bill was 59m and the rest was bonus structured.

According to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, Burnley are now valued at £350m

That’s the 9th highest in the country, above the likes of Leicester City, Everton, and West Ham.


Apart from rich backed owners who throw money about, we are the best place club in Britain to survive.

[Burnley Ace]

One report has us as the 9th most valuable club in the Premier - £350m

[TVC15]

I know we're a year behind at least when finances get issued so could be more, but Dyche stated the wage bill was 59m and the rest was bonus structured.

According to football finance expert Kieran Maguire, Burnley are now valued at £350m

That’s the 9th highest in the country, above the likes of Leicester City, Everton, and West Ham.


Apart from rich backed owners who throw money about, we are the best place club in Britain to survive.

You might want to check the methodology of the valuations you are referring to. I like Kevin Maguire but that methodology is pretty much utter nonsense.
Maybe ask our manager and owners whether they think we are the 9th strongest financially club in the premier league....they would struggle to stop laughing !! To value us more than the likes of West Ham, Everton etc is just a bit silly.

When you say “apart from rich backed owners” that’s a rather big “apart” and it’s the one big reason that we are definitely not the best placed club in Britain to survive.

[tiger76]

No we would probably not go bust if the debt was £7m. But that depends on whether the current owners would be prepared to subsidise that debt.
Back in 2009 if we would not have gone up there’s a good chance we would have gone bust and the debt would have been around £15m.
Remember our directors businesses are also likely to have been hit by the crisis.

The real problem is if the impact of the crisis starts to delay playing beyond 3 months. For every month we don’t play then our wage bill racks up at around £9m a month. A 3 months delay and the debt is nearer to £35m.

Our owners are not Venkys - whilst they run the clubs finances brilliantly and do not take any salaries or dividends from the club I have never got the impression that they would be prepared to sink tens of millions into the club with a real risk of never getting it back.

Firstly it's a myth we'd have gone bust in 2009 in the event of not securing promotion,we'd have had to sell a player or two,and tighten the purse strings,but we certainly wouldn't have been insolvent.

I do agree the longer we're not playing,and receiving TV income,whilst still having outgoings to factor in,then our current strong fiscal state is in danger of being undermined.

As others have outlined the bigger worry is,if next season sees a lengthy delay,and we're still committed to the current contractual obligations,that's when the losses can rapidly mount,and unlike most other PL and even many Championship clubs,we don't have a sugar-daddy to cushion the blow.

As in any business the uncertainty is what's troubling,we could be playing by June 2020 in the best case scenario,or we could be without football.closed or otherwise for 12-18 months,in the worst case scenario,that's why it's impossible to put any mitigating plans in place,because we don't know what we're mitigating for.

[Quickenthetempo]

You might want to check the methodology of the valuations you are referring to. I like Kevin Maguire but that methodology is pretty much utter nonsense.
Maybe ask our manager and owners whether they think we are the 9th strongest financially club in the premier league....they would struggle to stop laughing !! To value us more than the likes of West Ham, Everton etc is just a bit silly.

When you say “apart from rich backed owners” that’s a rather big “apart” and it’s the one big reason that we are definitely not the best placed club in Britain to survive.

It's one mans opinion, albeit the main man in footballing circles when it comes to football finances.

The manager and owner always play down our strength as a club, it makes them look like they are performing miracles. The chairman got a lot of backlash last week saying we could go bust, because he went too far before backtracking and claiming he was misquoted.

[TVC15]

Firstly it's a myth we'd have gone bust in 2009 in the event of not securing promotion,we'd have had to sell a player or two,and tighten the purse strings,but we certainly wouldn't have been insolvent.

I do agree the longer we're not playing,and receiving TV income,whilst still having outgoings to factor in,then our current strong fiscal state is in danger of being undermined.

As others have outlined the bigger worry is,if next season sees a lengthy delay,and we're still committed to the current contractual obligations,that's when the losses can rapidly mount,and unlike most other PL and even many Championship clubs,we don't have a sugar-daddy to cushion the blow.

As in any business the uncertainty is what's troubling,we could be playing by June 2020 in the best case scenario,or we could be without football.closed or otherwise for 12-18 months,in the worst case scenario,that's why it's impossible to put any mitigating plans in place,because we don't know what we're mitigating for.

Not sure it’s that much of a myth. It’s been quite well reported how much trouble we would have been in.
How would we have repaid the loans from Flood which he had to call in because of Modus and the collapse of the commercial property market ?
Not sure we had players worth the losses we were looking at and we did not have the owners we had now. Plus we didn’t own the ground or Gawthorpe.
Anyway it’s water under the bridge now and thank goodness we were never in that position.

[BurnleyFC]

We won’t be stronger if football doesn’t resume until early next year which is what is now being forecast. Millions in TV money will have to be paid back. Circa 50 million will have to be paid to our playing squad. Also their transfer values will reduce to a fraction of their value now. As Garlick stated a month ago, we could go bust if there is no football for a lengthy period.

If that scenario ensues, there is no doubt that the players will have to take a pay cut or deferral, just like the rest of society who can’t do their jobs.

They could always get a second job stacking shelves in Asda or something if they get bored.

[Darthlaw]

If we're talking about liquidating our assets to stay afloat due to the market, I wonder who will be in a financially stable enough position to be buying our players, whilst also managing their own lack of finance?

[TVC15]

It's one mans opinion, albeit the main man in footballing circles when it comes to football finances.

The manager and owner always play down our strength as a club, it makes them look like they are performing miracles. The chairman got a lot of backlash last week saying we could go bust, because he went too far before backtracking and claiming he was misquoted.

It’s not “one mans opinion”. It’s a report that Liverpool Uni have started to issue annually....a report which this year is apparently going to show Spurs as the richest club in Britain which is nearly as daft as Burnley being above Leicester and Everton.

They use their own method of valuations which have little or no accounting basis but it serves their purpose I guess as it’s given them a bit of notoriety even if it is others saying how wrong their report is at least they are now being talked about !

[Darthlaw]

If that scenario ensues, there is no doubt that the players will have to take a pay cut or deferral

Sure theres a FIFA rule where if they don't get paid for a length of time, they're free to terminate their contract and leave as a free agent. Isn't that how some of the Bolton players ditched them?

If you're Chelski, for instance, thinking about signing Pope do you pay x number of millions now or wait a few months and get him on a free when we don't pay his salary?

[BurnleyFC]

Sure theres a FIFA rule where if they don't get paid for a length of time, they're free to terminate their contract and leave as a free agent.

If you're Chelski, for instance, thinking about signing Pope do you pay x number of millions now or wait a few months and get him on a free when we don't pay his salary?

In that case I would expect FIFA to do the right thing and amend or extend contracts.

[Quickenthetempo]

With Spurs having a billion pound multi use stadium in London, is it so daft?

They also have the highest valued player in the premier league in Kane at 200m.

[TVC15]

With Spurs having a billion pound multi use stadium in London, is it so daft?

They also have the highest valued player in the premier league in Kane at 200m.

If you want to support a report that you have never read, don’t know the methodology used or even knew who the authors were....then you crack on.

[Paul Waine]

With Spurs having a billion pound multi use stadium in London, is it so daft?

They also have the highest valued player in the premier league in Kane at 200m.

Just a thought Quickenthetempo, Spurs may have spent a billion pounds building their multi use stadium, but how much is the stadium worth today or in 6/12 months time if spectators aren't allowed to attend events in their stadium, or they can only use it with social distancing maintained, let's say 25% of capacity? Similarly, Harry Kane, £200m before covid-19, but now? and, again, if it takes 18 months to get a vaccine? Which football club will pay out £200 million for a player when they can't play football, or their tv money has been cut back?

Has Maguire published any "post covid-19" valuation models? That's the world we are, hopefully, heading towards...

[Darthlaw]

In that case I would expect FIFA to do the right thing and amend or extend contracts.

I can't see that happening in the timescale required. The detail is below:

Article 14bis26, enabling a player to unilaterally terminate their employment contract if their club unlawfully fails to pay their wages for two months – provided a 15-day period of written notice is first given to the club by the player.

Basically, if players don't agree to a deferral then they can walk away from clubs after two months of non payment of wages. Particularly in lower league English football, this could cause chaos.

[Rojales Claret]

Regarding the value of Spurs and their new shiny stadium. Wasn't quite a big emphasis put on being able to stage American football matches several times a year? Can't see that happening any time soon!

[Vegas Claret]

with the batshit crazy wages being paid out up and down the leagues, if there is no football for a considerable amount of time then there will only be 6 clubs left

[Burnley Ace]

This latest report is on the most valuable - not the richest, most wealthy, most spending power, biggest etc.

The added value to Spurs seems to come from having a fantastic multi use stadium in London.

[Quickenthetempo]

If you want to support a report that you have never read, don’t know the methodology used or even knew who the authors were....then you crack on.

Supporting it?

Merely putting a couple of points of view to balance a debate.

You don't always have to be seen to right on here. You can see things from both sides.

[Chester Perry]

Has Maguire published any "post covid-19" valuation models? That's the world we are, hopefully, heading towards...

The valuations report is entirely based on the last set of published accounts for each club and is therefore both historical (based on data) and questionable (based on methodology) though no-one has ever come up with a universally or even commonly acceptable methodology. The Markham approach fulfils an academic need, the report a media and self promotional one for Maguire and more importantly his employer Liverpool University

[Quickenthetempo]

Just a thought Quickenthetempo, Spurs may have spent a billion pounds building their multi use stadium, but how much is the stadium worth today or in 6/12 months time if spectators aren't allowed to attend events in their stadium, or they can only use it with social distancing maintained, let's say 25% of capacity? Similarly, Harry Kane, £200m before covid-19, but now? and, again, if it takes 18 months to get a vaccine? Which football club will pay out £200 million for a player when they can't play football, or their tv money has been cut back?

Has Maguire published any "post covid-19" valuation models? That's the world we are, hopefully, heading towards...

It's all ifs and maybes like any forecast.

[tiger76]

I can't see that happening in the timescale required. The detail is below:



Basically, if players don't agree to a deferral then they can walk away from clubs after two months of non payment of wages. Particularly in lower league English football, this could cause chaos.

Even if they can walk away,where are they going to go,and why would clubs take on additional salaries at this uncertain time,especially if the players can't be used ATM.I suppose the counter argument to that is if they're getting essentially a free agent,then that could offset any wages,but it's still a risky undertaking in the present climate.

[TVC15]

Supporting it?

Merely putting a couple of points of view to balance a debate.

You don't always have to be seen to right on here. You can see things from both sides.

I agree - but wondered why you were putting forward a view for a report you had never read.

And you challenged my view that to list Spurs as the richest club or Burnley as the 9th richest was not credible.

My views are based on an understanding of the flaws in their methodology and having a good knowledge of other more credible financial reports on the sector (like Deloittes).

If you read the report produced by Liverpool Uni and can offer a view as to why you think their methodology and valuations are more credible than others then that’s absolutely fine.