Economic fallout from Covid 19

[Firthy]

Having read a lot of articles recently about job losses, BA pulling out of Gatwick, Airbus problems etc. Is the economic fallout going to be as bad as the virus itself. There will be so many people out of work and businesses going under (inc football clubs) that life as we know it will not be the same again for a long time. I really do feel sorry for the younger generation with families, mortgages and commitments and wonder how long their struggle will go on for.

I wish everyone who finds themselves in this position all the best and hope they come through it sooner rather than later.

[CaptJohn]

This is a self imposed recession/depression the depth of which is quite staggering. People refer to "when things back to normal" but there won't be a normal for years to come and yes the economic fallout is far, far worse than the virus. If you have 30 minutes to spare take a look at the following Youtube clip. It makes for interesting reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

[Ptangyangkipperbang]

Just come back to site after 30 days away and round and round in circles we go time to leave for good

[pushpinpussy]

why have I not thought about starting a COVID thread

[KateR]

The economic fallout is not just from Covid-19 but it has certainly been the catalyst that has driven it deep and will be a U rather than the hoped for V recovery (IMO) Therefore for the people who escape from C-19 it will definitely be much than the virus itself and last for much longer, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Confidence will be a huge part of how the world recovers, confidence in both the fight/safety regarding C-19 and in the economic forecast and particularly how governments perform and how far are they willing to go to stimulate the economy. Some things will go back to normal rather quickly but many things wont and that means no normal as Pre-C-19 during 2020/21, so be prepared for those changes.

[Spiral]

The economic fallout isn't worse for you if you're dead, which is rather the point in having a lockdown. If the economic fallout of lockdown results in a death toll even near that of the modelled death toll sans-lockdown, serious questions need to be asked not of the world's response to the pandemic, but of the political decisions made in the fallout and the designs of the economic systems used in first-world countries which should by rights be able to bear this, even if it means we're forced to subside a little more, and tolerate a lower standard of living for a few years. Is lockdown a burden? Yes, but so would be a quarter of a million direct COVID-19 deaths, and the deaths that come as a consequence of a collapsed healthcare system failing through no lack of effort of its staff in its attempt to press those numbers down. There's no such thing as a cure that is worse than the disease. Healthy people don't have the right (morally, at least) to offer up the lives of the sick and vulnerable in such a way.

[Blackrod]

‘Is the economic fallout going to be as bad as the virus itsrlf’ No. People are dying from the virus. There is no cure. People won’t die on mass from the type of poverty we could see in this country. I worry for small businesses, retail and restaurants. Surprised more haven’t gone bust yet as some must be very close

[joey13]

This is a self imposed recession/depression the depth of which is quite staggering. People refer to "when things back to normal" but there won't be a normal for years to come and yes the economic fallout is far, far worse than the virus. If you have 30 minutes to spare take a look at the following Youtube clip. It makes for interesting reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

Sweden who have the highest death rate in Scandinavia and rising

[KateR]

why have I not thought about starting a COVID thread

It's not a Covid thread though is it, it's about economics and recovery, global and country specific if you want, hopefully not a political thread either but you just know it will be unfortunately. It's about how the normal has changed how long will it take to recover or will we ever get back to where we were pre Covid.

It's not about deaths, testing, hospitals, vaccines, etc. which are on the Covid-19 thread.

[Billy Balfour]

the economic fallout is far, far worse than the virus

674 is today's death toll. It's worse than a 747 falling out of the sky on a daily basis. Can you imagine what the death toll would be if the govt hadn't taken the current measures, yet we still get people questioning the economics of the lockdown and social-distancing measures.

They wouldn't be doing this is it was themselves or a loved one who was fighting for their last breath.

[Rowls]

Economic fallout will be immense and felt for years.

It WILL spark a worldwide global recession. This has already begun.

Making predictions is a mugs game, but here's a few from me:

The return of inflation
High unemployment in Europe
A fresh Euro zone/EU crisis - Greece, Spain and Italy among the worst affected
Political unrest in China

[Stayingup]

What I am finding disgraceful is the now surfeit of tv adverts for gambling. These have increased since the crisis started. Terrible knowing many people and families are cash strapped. Far worse than pathetic point scoring of politicians and the some of the media.

[Rileybobs]

What I am finding disgraceful is the now surfeit of tv adverts for gambling. These have increased since the crisis started. Terrible knowing many people and families are cash strapped. Far worse than pathetic point scoring of politicians and the some of the media.

Really? Surprised if gambling adverts have increased seeing as there’s virtually no sports betting. Especially considering how much gambling adverts dominated the sports channels.

[KateR]

predictions based on knowledge and history is important and provides guidance as to where you need to try and plug gaps and stimulate an economy.

Guessing and having an opinion based on zero or next to zero knowledge doesn't tend to be helpful nor is it used as something to combat the issues.

High level guesses can of course be "accurate" in terms of seeing inflation & high unemployment for example, the trick is trying to define when, how bad, how long will it last, how will it affect me, my family and the country in general.

[dsr]

Leaving aside the personal financial impacts, let's just look at what happened under "austerity". A widely believed figure (I didn't believe it, but many people did, and who is to say who is right) said that "austerity" had cost the lives of 131,000 people over 7 years. They claimed that 131,000 people would have been alive at the end of 7 years than if we hadn't had "austerity".

So let's assume that the efforts to fight this virus will cost no more and no less than "austerity". And so 7 years from today, many (probably a large majority) of the people who would have died from cornovirus will be dead anyway because of their underlying health conditions or their age; and 131,000 extra people, more skewed towards the younger age group, will be dead as well. Then ask the question about economic effects - it becomes a bit harder to answer.

[Devils_Advocate]

Leaving aside the personal financial impacts, let's just look at what happened under "austerity". A widely believed figure (I didn't believe it, but many people did, and who is to say who is right) said that "austerity" had cost the lives of 131,000 people over 7 years. They claimed that 131,000 people would have been alive at the end of 7 years than if we hadn't had "austerity".

So let's assume that the efforts to fight this virus will cost no more and no less than "austerity". And so 7 years from today, many (probably a large majority) of the people who would have died from cornovirus will be dead anyway because of their underlying health conditions or their age; and 131,000 extra people, more skewed towards the younger age group, will be dead as well. Then ask the question about economic effects - it becomes a bit harder to answer.

The difference could be that austerity was aimed at the poor whilst the well off happily got on with life and even at times demonised those at the bottom of society and let them suffer

If this time we are all in it together there may be enough wealth (with a shared reduction of living standards) to help us all pull through this and minimise the death and destruction of the most vulnerable

It will rely on on the rich being willing to give up a lot but with this blitz spirit invoked surely they wont mind

[dsr]

The difference could be that austerity was aimed at the poor whilst the well off happily got on with life and even at times demonised those at the bottom of society and let them suffer

If this time we are all in it together there may be enough wealth (with a shared reduction of living standards) to help us all pull through this and minimise the death and destruction of the most vulnerable

It will rely on on the rich being willing to give up a lot but with this blitz spirit invoked surely they wont mind

Not just the rich. If every single British or Britsh-based billionaire was forced to liquidate his worldwide assets and give all his wealth to the state, and if he was able to get the value as stated in Wikipedia and none of his assets have been reduced in value by coronavirus, then the total raised would be £200 billion. That's enough to pay for 2 months' excess government spending purely on business loans - nothing else. You can't just tax the rich; you have to go after everyone.

£6 trillion in pension pots in the UK. That's what they would have to go after.

[Devils_Advocate]

Not just the rich. If every single British or Britsh-based billionaire was forced to liquidate his worldwide assets and give all his wealth to the state, and if he was able to get the value as stated in Wikipedia and none of his assets have been reduced in value by coronavirus, then the total raised would be £200 billion. That's enough to pay for 2 months' excess government spending purely on business loans - nothing else. You can't just tax the rich; you have to go after everyone.

£6 trillion in pension pots in the UK. That's what they would have to go after.

Its not just about money but its about sharing the consequences as when everybodys suffering then we can achieve and cope with a lot more

In austerity people like us and many many others would have barely seen our lives and luxuries change at all. As soon as you start hitting the wealthy and the rich its amazing how much more we can make happen

Just to clarify im not saying thats all we need to do and we'll be ok cos its far more complex and uncertain.

I was just pointing out its also not as simplistic to just compare austerity and the Covid fall out on a cost basis cos a big part of austerity was the lack of support and desire to get the excess money in our society to the people and places who most needed it

[jackmiggins]

Fortunately 'economists' are out of their limited depth with this and will struggle to justify austerity as easily as they would with a recession. They will remain under their rock until they can formulate some justification for profiteering out of the situation.
Hopefully, the World will be kick-starting on a relatively equal footing (apart from China - nod, nod wink, wink). Other than that ………...who knows?

[Burnley1989]

Having read a lot of articles recently about job losses, BA pulling out of Gatwick, Airbus problems etc. Is the economic fallout going to be as bad as the virus itself. There will be so many people out of work and businesses going under (inc football clubs) that life as we know it will not be the same again for a long time. I really do feel sorry for the younger generation with families, mortgages and commitments and wonder how long their struggle will go on for.

I wish everyone who finds themselves in this position all the best and hope they come through it sooner rather than later.

There’s absolutely no doubt it will, there has to be a fine balance which makes it such a difficult job to manage, every decision will cost lives and livelihoods.

I was quite supportive of the government at first, perhaps it’s reading the papers and threads on here but my opinion has massively changed.That said, they have got some things right in my opinion, I just think if they’d reacted quicker we’d have been in a better position to end lock down and save the UK economy a lot sooner.

[AndrewJB]

The economic recovery will depend on the willingness of the government to intervene in the economy, which runs counter to their prevailing orthodoxy. The government has of course done this - I think doing nothing became an impossible option - but in all of this they've been very reactive, and in my opinion quite late. To cause the lease damage to the economy - and in that I'm thinking of people themselves - the government will have to come forward with a plan.