Given the choice would you attend live events at your own risk

[Grumps]

It's not just a game (a Burnley FC game or any other) I intend to avoid contact with people as much as possible until the pandemic is over.

Covid-19 will never be over

[lakedistrictclaret]

Covid-19 will never be over

You say that, and I'm not a scientist, but what makes this pandemic different from Spanish flu or SARS, both of which died out after 15-18 months?

[boatshed bill]

Covid-19 will never be over

Well i'll just carry on as I am.

I don't agree though. Pharma companies will develop a vaccine, there's too much money to be made for them not to

[claretandy]

Yes i would, i've been working all way through this, i take more risks everyday than sitting on the turf.

[wembley94]

Probably more dangerous going to the supermarket than a football match

[Grumps]

You say that, and I'm not a scientist, but what makes this pandemic different from Spanish flu or SARS, both of which died out after 15-18 months?

According to jenny at teatime, only smallpox has ever been eradicated, so the odds are against getting rid of it.

[Grumps]

Well i'll just carry on as I am.

I don't agree though. Pharma companies will develop a vaccine, there's too much money to be made for them not to

So, is that the answer to my original question? When a vaccine is found?
You might get a game in next season then

[jackmiggins]

Won’t be eradicated - it can ‘dilute’ or mutate.

[FactualFrank]

The only way you'll completely eradicate it is if there's a vaccine developed that's effective and delivered to every human on the planet. Smallpox is an example, but that took a long time.

And of course the antibodies. Nobody yet knows how long they last, so that appears to be how long is a piece of string.

[Grumps]

The only way you'll completely eradicate it is if there's a vaccine developed that's effective and delivered to every human on the planet. Smallpox is an example, but that took a long time.

And of course the antibodies. Nobody yet knows how long they last, so that appears to be how long is a piece of string.

Smallpox is the only example!

[lakedistrictclaret]

There have been no reported cases of SARS since 2004, although COVID -19 is closely related to it.

So no, a virus like this may not be eradicated, but it can lie dormant for years ( in this
case 15 years).

[boatshed bill]

So, is that the answer to my original question? When a vaccine is found?
You might get a game in next season then

Who knows??

[jackmiggins]

According to the WHO, SARS has emerged from ‘accidental’ incidents in Singapore, Taipei and China. Experimental vaccines are under development. Wonder if these developed into our new friend?

[ksrclaret]

Didn’t the government guidance say it was actually quite unlikely you’d transmit the virus at outdoor events like football matches?

Obviously this was well before the peak and lockdown, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the case that a football match would cause huge transmission of the virus. No more so than other things we’re currently doing, anyway.

[boatshed bill]

Didn’t the government guidance say it was actually quite unlikely you’d transmit the virus at outdoor events like football matches?

Obviously this was well before the peak and lockdown, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the case that a football match would cause huge transmission of the virus. No more so than other things we’re currently doing, anyway.

Scenario:
If HMG said something like "There's land mines all over Pendle Hill( eg.), but we think they're safe so you can exercise there risk free" would you walk on there?

[Burnley1989]

For me football is about seeing all my family and friends and having pre match food/drink and enjoying it together. I’d rather watch it at home if some had to be excluded.

[ksrclaret]

Scenario:
If HMG said something like "There's land mines all over Pendle Hill( eg.), but we think they're safe so you can exercise there risk free" would you walk on there?

I’ve seen so many ridiculous and nonsensical comparisons since this virus began circulating, but that ones up there I must say.

[IanMcL]

And potentially passing it on to those who are less healthy

Surely, like you, they would use their nous and stay at home?

[boatshed bill]

I’ve seen so many ridiculous and nonsensical comparisons since this virus began circulating, but that ones up there I must say.

What's so stupid about it. If something can kill you you are best advised to keep away from it whenever possible.
a game of football just isn't worth the risk.
The government sending people back to work right now is totally irresponsible.
What is it with the English that they are prepared to ignore the facts? We are the 2nd highest in deaths due to Covid 19 in the world, do you ever wonder why?

[ksrclaret]

What's so stupid about it. If something can kill you you are best advised to keep away from it whenever possible.
a game of football just isn't worth the risk.
The government sending people back to work right now is totally irresponsible.
What is it with the English that they are prepared to ignore the facts? We are the 2nd highest in deaths due to Covid 19 in the world, do you ever wonder why?

Because, and I’m no fan of them, the government would never declare an area riddled with land mines is safe. The relative risk of dying if you step on a land mine versus if you contract coronavirus are not comparable.

If the advice was it’s unlikely to be transmitted at football matches, it will have been based on scientific analysis. I wasn’t saying we should go on the Turf, I was just pointing out we’d previously been told it wasn’t a vector for huge transmission.

[cricketfieldclarets]

To me right now the advice we are following is the best approach.

I wasn’t even going to go to the city game after things accelerated like they did and with vulnerable family members and a then pregnant other half.

Equally if the season started on 1st august and we could go on I wouldn’t despite being young, fit and healthy.

That said there will come a point where we need to face it a bit more than we are now.

Economically is one reason. But nowhere near a good enough one to risk your life. But socially, mentally and physically are and all are going to continue to be affected the longer it goes on.

Life’s about living. And risk taking. And while none of us want to catch this. Fit and healthy or otherwise. The alternative of a life of isolation and solitude cowering away from a virus that isn’t lethal to most isn’t the answer either.

A few more months and we will have miles more insight into the virus and far more progress on not only a vaccine but also treatment and testing which are as important.

[boatshed bill]

Because, and I’m no fan of them, the government would never declare an area riddled with land mines is safe. The relative risk of dying if you step on a land mine versus if you contract coronavirus are not comparable.

If the advice was it’s unlikely to be transmitted at football matches, it will have been based on scientific analysis. I wasn’t saying we should go on the Turf, I was just pointing out we’d previously been told it wasn’t a vector for huge transmission.

Needless to say, you are entitled to believe whatever you wish to.
I choose to believe that the Gov't is covertly implementing Johnson's "herd immunity" preference.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Needless to say, you are entitled to believe whatever you wish to.
I choose to believe that the Gov't is covertly implementing Johnson's "herd immunity" preference.

Although I back the government I definitely think they are subtley still pursuing this.

[ClaretTony]

Surely, like you, they would use their nous and stay at home?

I’m referring to people who might feel well with no underlying conditions. They could have the virus and pass it on.

[boatshed bill]

I’m referring to people who might feel well with no underlying conditions. They could have the virus and pass it on.

Apparently there could be a huge number who have the virus and don't even know it.

[ClaretTony]

Apparently there could be a huge number who have the virus and don't even know it.

Absolutely - and until such time as that can be dealt with, it won’t be safe to have crowds.

[Grumps]

To me right now the advice we are following is the best approach.

I wasn’t even going to go to the city game after things accelerated like they did and with vulnerable family members and a then pregnant other half.

Equally if the season started on 1st august and we could go on I wouldn’t despite being young, fit and healthy.

That said there will come a point where we need to face it a bit more than we are now.

Economically is one reason. But nowhere near a good enough one to risk your life. But socially, mentally and physically are and all are going to continue to be affected the longer it goes on.

Life’s about living. And risk taking. And while none of us want to catch this. Fit and healthy or otherwise. The alternative of a life of isolation and solitude cowering away from a virus that isn’t lethal to most isn’t the answer either.

A few more months and we will have miles more insight into the virus and far more progress on not only a vaccine but also treatment and testing which are as important.

Hopefully by the start of the season we'll know better, but with over 99% of the population not having the virus, it's not really that big a risk now if we're talking odds of catching it or not.

[Middle-agedClaret]

To answer the original question - no.
Like some others who have posted on the thread, I have a condition (severe asthma) which makes me “very vulnerable “ to Covid 19. I have had my “shielding “ letter from the NHS/PHE, telling me to stay at home until, initially, 30 June. I think that date will be extended - significantly.
Because I live in a small Cornish village, I am going out for a daily walk - at 6am - when I can be pretty sure that I’ll see no-one.
But I would not go to a football match.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Hopefully by the start of the season we'll know better, but with over 99% of the population not having the virus, it's not really that big a risk now if we're talking odds of catching it or not.

I don’t follow

[NewClaret]

Although I back the government I definitely think they are subtley still pursuing this.

Realistically, it’s probably the only way to get back to normality any time soon.

I don’t think we’ll get a definitive vaccine either.

[Grumps]

I don’t follow

The ONS survey, widely published over the past two days states that at any one time 0.27% of the population of England have the virus, meaning over 99%havent got it. Therefore the odds are against you coming in contact with someone who has the virus
It's a risk, but some will say a risk worth taking

[ClaretTony]

To me right now the advice we are following is the best approach.

I wasn’t even going to go to the city game after things accelerated like they did and with vulnerable family members and a then pregnant other half.

Equally if the season started on 1st august and we could go on I wouldn’t despite being young, fit and healthy.

That said there will come a point where we need to face it a bit more than we are now.

Economically is one reason. But nowhere near a good enough one to risk your life. But socially, mentally and physically are and all are going to continue to be affected the longer it goes on.

Life’s about living. And risk taking. And while none of us want to catch this. Fit and healthy or otherwise. The alternative of a life of isolation and solitude cowering away from a virus that isn’t lethal to most isn’t the answer either.

A few more months and we will have miles more insight into the virus and far more progress on not only a vaccine but also treatment and testing which are as important.

Hard to disagree with any of that. I have to say that the isolation is easier than I thought it would be but part of that is the fact that there’s nowhere to go in any case.

[boatshed bill]

The ONS survey, widely published over the past two days states that at any one time 0.27% of the population of England have the virus, meaning over 99%havent got it. Therefore the odds are against you coming in contact with someone who has the virus
It's a risk, but some will say a risk worth taking

They haven't enough info yet. Are they even sure that anyone who's had it and recovered cannot be a carrier, still capable of infecting others?

[cricketfieldclarets]

Hard to disagree with any of that. I have to say that the isolation is easier than I thought it would be but part of that is the fact that there’s nowhere to go in any case.

Yes the isolation has been easy to be honest. Being locked at home with my two babies and mrs has actually been brilliant. Time I wouldn’t have ordinarily got. Plus almost all of us on here live a life of luxury that people in other parts of the world could only dream of.

That said on the other hand the uncertainty about family and the economy have been constantly at the front of mind.

Even the turf not being on has been surprisingly easy. I suspect it’s because we are all missing it and it isn’t just me.

It’s the uncertainty that has affected me most. But I’m optimistic and know there’s a lot of good that we have learnt from this. Especially when it comes to priorities.

[cricketfieldclarets]

The ONS survey, widely published over the past two days states that at any one time 0.27% of the population of England have the virus, meaning over 99%havent got it. Therefore the odds are against you coming in contact with someone who has the virus
It's a risk, but some will say a risk worth taking

I’m optimistic about it all. And always was. But surely of over 99 percent havent got it that’s a big worry? I’m no doctor though.

[Colburn_Claret]

I would.
I'd wear a mask and gloves, but I'm in.

[cricketfieldclarets]

To the point further up the thread in the r rate.

Is keeping the r down purely to manage the spread or is there a belief that by keeping r down it could also die out?

[Colburn_Claret]

To the point further up the thread in the r rate.

Is keeping the r down purely to manage the spread or is there a belief that by keeping r down it could also die out?

if the R rate is below 1, then it's already dying out, still spreading, but dying out. Its not a flat line dying out , the lower the figure the quicker it's dying.
That isn't to say that if people ignore guidelines it couldn't soon rise again. Anything above 1 and its spreading, but also increasing.

[tybfc]

The R rate has risen today according to government stats.

[paulatky]

The R rate has risen today according to government stats.

By easing lockdown restrictions the only way the R rate could go is up. It needs to remain below 1

[ClaretTony]

The R rate has pushed up to potentially 1 again which is a concern. Will be very interesting to see what happens once we’ve had the effect of the relaxing lockdown.

[cricketfieldclarets]

if the R rate is below 1, then it's already dying out, still spreading, but dying out. Its not a flat line dying out , the lower the figure the quicker it's dying.
That isn't to say that if people ignore guidelines it couldn't soon rise again. Anything above 1 and its spreading, but also increasing.

So just for the medically uneducated (me).

Let’s say r is at 0.5 in the wider community. Does that mean it disappears? I suspect not if borders reopen properly and asymptotic people are back at work etc.

[cricketfieldclarets]

The R rate has pushed up to potentially 1 again which is a concern. Will be very interesting to see what happens once we’ve had the effect of the relaxing lockdown.

I’d have been happier with another three to four weeks of lockdown. But we are an impatient nation with impatient media who just want stories. Pre lockdown they wanted lockdown. During lockdown they wanted it over. Now they will want it back again soon.

[Spijed]

By easing lockdown restrictions the only way the R rate could go is up. It needs to remain below 1

How are they managing to keep it under control in other countries?

Basically the rest of the world is easing lockdown and Germany is said it's not worried

[dougcollins]

How are they managing to keep it under control in other countries?

Basically the rest of the world is easing lockdown and Germany is said it's not worried

Though doubts that their football season will re-start.

[beddie]

We intend to continue as if lockdown had not been eased. My own view is that it will be re-introduced, especially if the good weather continues. No we wouldn't even consider returning to any live events until the Government are sure we'd all be 100% safe.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

The R rate has pushed up to potentially 1 again which is a concern. Will be very interesting to see what happens once we’ve had the effect of the relaxing lockdown.

Just speaking to my dad on a family quiz he was wondering if he’ll set foot on the turf again. The Spanish Flu a hundred years ago lasted a year and there was also the ‘Asian Flu’ in 1957 again which lasted a year. Fingers crossed we won’t be waiting years.

[Spijed]

Though doubts that their football season will re-start.

It kicks-off tomorrow

[ten bellies]

I believe I've already had the virus, so would return as soon as fans are allowed back. I can understand anyone with health issues being reluctant to return.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Just a brief observation as someone who deals in health stats for a living.

The R rate has not necessarily gone up. It has a wide margin of error, so the previous one may have been at the higher end of what they thought, for example, it could have been 0.9 a week ago and 0.8 now if it was possible to find the exact number (which it isn't, it’s an average of everyone in the UK who has the virus and we don’t know who they are, nor how many each will infect).

In other words, it’s too early to take that as bad news, but caution is warranted.

I’ve also been poring over the ONS monthly release of mortality stats today - the diabetes observation is one I find it hard to see in the numbers. No doubts a factor, but a factor in 25% of cases seems very dubious. Again, caution warranted but too early to panic.

Personally, to answer the OP question, I won’t be attending while the R is close to or above 1 - too irresponsible. If it sinks far below 1, AND there are few cases in the community (which will take time), that’s a different story as it would be acceptable risk akin to crossing a busy road.