Given the choice would you attend live events at your own risk

[Grumps]

They haven't enough info yet. Are they even sure that anyone who's had it and recovered cannot be a carrier, still capable of infecting others?

That's why I said... If the government say its safe.... As in that case it would be better than it is today....

[Grumps]

The R rate has pushed up to potentially 1 again which is a concern. Will be very interesting to see what happens once we’ve had the effect of the relaxing lockdown.

They said the rate had gone up due to the high deaths rate in care homes. That would have little effect on the risk attendeding matches.
Unfortunately the figs are about 3 weeks behind, so any relaxation now won't be seen till after the next phase starts, though there are other factors they take into account.

[wilks_bfc]

What are “fit & healthy” people that are saying they would go on not understanding?

I’d consider myself fit & healthy
I’ve been going into work (NHS) at least 3 times a week since lockdown.
Mrs W has some underlying conditions and has hardly been out since lockdown and I’ve been doing the shopping.
Other than to drop off some shopping I haven’t seen my parents in 8 weeks and, when I have it’s been at 2m distance.
I’ve seen my brother & nephew a few times which was hard as all the little one wanted to do was run over and hug me.

But I could still have picked up the virus but not have any symptoms. If I passed it onto anybody else I wouldn’t be able to forgive myself

[Grumps]

What are “fit & healthy” people that are saying they would go on not understanding?

I’d consider myself fit & healthy
I’ve been going into work (NHS) at least 3 times a week since lockdown.
Mrs W has some underlying conditions and has hardly been out since lockdown and I’ve been doing the shopping.
Other than to drop off some shopping I haven’t seen my parents in 8 weeks and, when I have it’s been at 2m distance.
I’ve seen my brother & nephew a few times which was hard as all the little one wanted to do was run over and hug me.

But I could still have picked up the virus but not have any symptoms. If I passed it onto anybody else I wouldn’t be able to forgive myself

I think we all understand that. I've kept away from my parents the whole time, not even at the 2m distance. I've not seen my grandchildren, iam not going to the shops etc etc, I get it!!

But, if and when they say its safe to go to a football match, I'd go, by which time I will probably have been allowed to see my parents, hug my grandkids, and been dragged round the supermarket, and no doubt been able to have a pint and possibly go on holiday. Football and other sports with large crowds will be the last thing to open.

[Colburn_Claret]

So just for the medically uneducated (me).

Let’s say r is at 0.5 in the wider community. Does that mean it disappears? I suspect not if borders reopen properly and asymptotic people are back at work etc.

Even if you go to work and someone has it, so long as the R value is below 1 and falling, the disease is dying.
So long as the people coming in when the borders reopen, come from a country where the R value is the same or lower than ours, then they would have no effect on the country either.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Even if you go to work and someone has it, so long as the R value is below 1 and falling, the disease is dying.
So long as the people coming in when the borders reopen, come from a country where the R value is the same or lower than ours, then they would have no effect on the country either.

I think I understand that but please explain it.

[CombatClaret]

Even if you go to work and someone has it, so long as the R value is below 1 and falling, the disease is dying.

The R value could be going down when you go to work.
But then someone at work has it, you get it are asymptomatic and you spread it, the R value starts to increase if this happens in more places.

You are part of the R number equation in a tiny way.

[ashtonlongsider]

Much as I'm missing football there's no way i'd want to attend a live event at present and I'd be surprised unfortunately if we'll be able to meet up for quite sometime. When the government changed the slogan to 'Stay Alert, I think they should also have emphasised the need to 'remain responsible' because from my observations there's a lot that aren't. As for the 'r' number, I feel, unfortunately here in England we're governed by what's happening in London. It might be drastically down in the Capital but the suggestion is that it's still too high in our and other areas to come relax restrictions.

[ClaretTony]

Just speaking to my dad on a family quiz he was wondering if he’ll set foot on the turf again. The Spanish Flu a hundred years ago lasted a year and there was also the ‘Asian Flu’ in 1957 again which lasted a year. Fingers crossed we won’t be waiting years.

It's crossed my mind that I could have been on the Turf for the last time. I really hope that's not the case but it could well be if we don't get this under some control and there are enough posts on this thread alone to suggest some will carry on regardless given the opportunity.

[mealdeal]

It's crossed my mind that I could have been on the Turf for the last time. I really hope that's not the case but it could well be if we don't get this under some control and there are enough posts on this thread alone to suggest some will carry on regardless given the opportunity.

We've got to carry on though given the choice. No one can attend football matches at the moment, but at some point the restrictions will be lifted. It won't be when its '100% safe' (whatever that means) so at that point, individuals make a decision as to whether the activity fits their personal risk profile. Those that don't want to 'risk' it stay away.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Even if you go to work and someone has it, so long as the R value is below 1 and falling, the disease is dying.
So long as the people coming in when the borders reopen, come from a country where the R value is the same or lower than ours, then they would have no effect on the country either.

This isn’t quite right.

Say there are 100,000 people in the UK with Covid currently, if the R is 0.75 that means there will be 75,000 with it a week later. So on and so forth. So yes, the disease is dying out (though it will take months and many of us will still die out with it).

But if, say, France also has a 0.75 R, this has no relevance to us. The R doesn’t say whether they have 50,000 infected or 500,000, and what matters is how many infected people come here, adding to our 75,000.

But if we do have 75,000 infected (a made up figure as an example), it’s unlikely a few hundred infected people coming in will make much difference. But if we get down to a few hundred cases, it can make a huge difference, hence the need to quarantine.

Sorry for the long winded reply but it’s important we all understand the risks correctly to avoid things like too many going on the Turf when they shouldn’t. Numbers infected reflect the risk and are the key figure, the R just shows how that number is due to change, up or down.

[Colburn_Claret]

I think I understand that but please explain it.

You can have your bait back

[Colburn_Claret]

This isn’t quite right.

Say there are 100,000 people in the UK with Covid currently, if the R is 0.75 that means there will be 75,000 with it a week later. So on and so forth. So yes, the disease is dying out (though it will take months and many of us will still die out with it).

But if, say, France also has a 0.75 R, this has no relevance to us. The R doesn’t say whether they have 50,000 infected or 500,000, and what matters is how many infected people come here, adding to our 75,000.

But if we do have 75,000 infected (a made up figure as an example), it’s unlikely a few hundred infected people coming in will make much difference. But if we get down to a few hundred cases, it can make a huge difference, hence the need to quarantine.

Sorry for the long winded reply but it’s important we all understand the risks correctly to avoid things like too many going on the Turf when they shouldn’t. Numbers infected reflect the risk and are the key figure, the R just shows how that number is due to change, up or down.

I take your point about how many people have it, but its unlikely to have an R rate of under 1, and falling, unless the number of cases has already started to fall significantly.
I'd also point out that the R value is unlikely to straight line, whether its rising or falling. It will fall in a downward curve, that gets steeper the lower the figure. So using your analogy the 100,000 giving it to 75,000, the hopeful outlook is that it then drops to 0.5 the following week so 75,000 pass it on to 37,500. The following week it drops to 0.2 and 37,500 pass it on to 7, 500. It could fall that quickly, just look at London.
We could well be getting new cases in a years time, but the numbers could fall to insignificant long before then. Unless of course you are one of the unlucky few.

[cricketfieldclarets]

You can have your bait back

Genuine question

[IanMcL]

I’m referring to people who might feel well with no underlying conditions. They could have the virus and pass it on.

I'm referring to those who are fearful (rightly) of catching it, in such circumstances. They would surely be the ones to use their nius and avoid that chance and/or mixing with such folk.