Quarantine

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aggi
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Quarantine

Post by aggi » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:44 pm

Obviously in the news recently with France being added to the list.

Was talking to a friend (who is currently in France) about it and wondering why we're not simply testing people on the return and only quarantining the positive tests rather than everyone.

I've not really even seem that suggested as a possibility, is there a reason it won't work?

GodIsADeeJay81
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Re: Quarantine

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:49 pm

I'm surprised we aren't testing people who leave as well as those who enter.

BenWickes
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Re: Quarantine

Post by BenWickes » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:49 pm

I think the incubation period is up to 2 weeks. So if you were to come into contact with it a day before your return you might not test positive with it for some time after.
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TheFamilyCat
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Re: Quarantine

Post by TheFamilyCat » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:54 pm

Because doing that wouldn't **** the French off like deterring people from going there on holiday will.

JohnMac
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Re: Quarantine

Post by JohnMac » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:56 pm

Incubation is the simple answer. Enforcement,? Well there is no answer really. As if someone who arrived today after 4am is different somehow.

The only real solution is to ban ALL TRAVEL into and out of our Island but that won't happen.

FactualFrank
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Re: Quarantine

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:58 pm

As mentioned, incubation.

Current average seems to be 5 days, although can range from 1 to 11 days.

Bosscat
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Bosscat » Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:00 pm

To paraphrase Anthony B Liar
Incubation
Incubation
Incubation

Quickenthetempo
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Quickenthetempo » Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:16 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:54 pm
Because doing that wouldn't **** the French off like deterring people from going there on holiday will.
It does seem like we are showing these countries what it will be like if they don't play ball over trade deals

timshorts
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Re: Quarantine

Post by timshorts » Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:11 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 4:16 pm
It does seem like we are showing these countries what it will be like if they don't play ball over trade deals
Safer?
Our covid 19 stats have generally been worse than France and definitely worse than the Netherlands.
I'm not sure why they would want our tourists passing Virus on to them.

Quickenthetempo
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Quickenthetempo » Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:20 pm

timshorts wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:11 pm
Safer?
Our covid 19 stats have generally been worse than France and definitely worse than the Netherlands.
I'm not sure why they would want our tourists passing Virus on to them.
Our stats are made up mate.

The housewife picking a random horse in the national could do a more accurate job.

Grumps
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Grumps » Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:16 pm

timshorts wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:11 pm
Safer?
Our covid 19 stats have generally been worse than France and definitely worse than the Netherlands.
I'm not sure why they would want our tourists passing Virus on to them.
This says different...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... sf-twitter

groove
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Re: Quarantine

Post by groove » Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:57 pm

The word quarantine is derived from Quarantena, the Venetian language word for 40 days, which was the length of time ships had to wait off the Venice shore before being allowed to dock during the Bubonic plague.
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Quicknick » Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:26 pm

groove wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:57 pm
The word quarantine is derived from Quarantena, the Venetian language word for 40 days, which was the length of time ships had to wait off the Venice shore before being allowed to dock during the Bubonic plague.
Interesting post.

Jakubclaret
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:41 pm

JohnMac wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:56 pm
Incubation is the simple answer. Enforcement,? Well there is no answer really. As if someone who arrived today after 4am is different somehow.

The only real solution is to ban ALL TRAVEL into and out of our Island but that won't happen.
Very true, that’s the widely accepted & acknowledged almost surefire solution, beggars belief containment essential but travel allowed, we ask for problems collectively & struggle to answer.

dsr
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Re: Quarantine

Post by dsr » Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:53 pm

The problem is that according to official figures, there were about 10,000 new cases in France last week and about 6,000 here. Which means that if the government's policy is to keep it at about that level, we can never restart regular international travel because there will always be the danger of a blip.

What, if anything, is the advantage of not circulating? Suppose there are 100,000 Britons in France, of whom we can expect on average 8 to have coronavirus; and the same number of French are over here, of whom we can expect 15 to have the virus. Does the net 7 extra virus carriers make such a big difference to the spread of the disease among the 66 million people that live here?

martin_p
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Re: Quarantine

Post by martin_p » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:11 am

dsr wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:53 pm
The problem is that according to official figures, there were about 10,000 new cases in France last week and about 6,000 here. Which means that if the government's policy is to keep it at about that level, we can never restart regular international travel because there will always be the danger of a blip.

What, if anything, is the advantage of not circulating? Suppose there are 100,000 Britons in France, of whom we can expect on average 8 to have coronavirus; and the same number of French are over here, of whom we can expect 15 to have the virus. Does the net 7 extra virus carriers make such a big difference to the spread of the disease among the 66 million people that live here?
No, the problem is that back sometime in Feb/March we will have had broadly similar infection figures and since then 50,000 people have died. Until we have a vaccine there’s a very real chance that will happen again if we don’t have suitable controls.

dsr
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Re: Quarantine

Post by dsr » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:53 am

martin_p wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:11 am
No, the problem is that back sometime in Feb/March we will have had broadly similar infection figures and since then 50,000 people have died. Until we have a vaccine there’s a very real chance that will happen again if we don’t have suitable controls.
In February.March, infection rates were rising fast, as were death rates and illness rates. It may be that infection rates are rising now, though I wouldn't trust the government's in house statisticians, but it is certain that illness rates and death rates are falling fast. Hospital admissions with coronavirus are dropping fast, that the number of people in intensive care with coronavirus is dropping fast, and that the number of people admitted to hospital who are expected to recover is increasing fast. We also know that the number of people dying of this disease is significantly less than the 1%-3% that it is believed to have been at the start.

So is banning travelling from other countries that also have very low levels of coronavirus, a suitable control? If lack of suitable controls is a danger, then let's have suitable controls. I don't see how restricting travel between regions with broadly similar levels of infection is really restricting anything.

Incidentally, between June 19 and July 31, 2,992 people have died with coronavirus. 6,626 died with flu and/or pneumonia. Coronavirus, at present, is not a major national threat and whatever actions the government is taking should take that into account. I do not believe they are properly weighing up the misery caused by lockdown with the misery caused by coronavirus.

HunterST_BFC
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Re: Quarantine

Post by HunterST_BFC » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:26 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:53 am
...I do not believe they are properly weighing up the misery caused by lockdown with the misery caused by coronavirus.
Just for Balance...
...I do not believe you are properly weighing up the misery and deaths caused by Covid-19.

The inept way it has been allowed to hit the UK population and lack of properly dealing with it.

Maybe this should be the cause of your misery?

bfcmik
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Re: Quarantine

Post by bfcmik » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:27 am

14 day case map as of 15th August. EU/EEA &UK
ecdc aug15.jpg
ecdc aug15.jpg (152.54 KiB) Viewed 1210 times
{Total Cases - Total Deaths - 14-day cumulative COVID-19 cases per 100000 - 14-day cumulative COVID-19 deaths per 100000}
Spain 342813 28617 115.7 0.4
United Kingdom 316367 41358 18.6 -7.3
Italy 253438 35392 9.3 0.4
Germany 223453 9231 16.3 0.1
France 215521 30409 41.2 0.2
Sweden 84294 5783 37.8 0.4
Belgium 77776 9935 63.1 0.8
Romania 69374 2954 88.9 3.0
Netherlands 62437 6160 44.6 0.1
Poland 56090 1869 25.7 0.4
Portugal 53981 1775 26.0 0.4
Ireland 27191 1774 22.1 0.2
Austria 23211 728 22.4 0.1
Czechia 19891 395 30.0 0.1
Denmark 15483 621 29.2 0.1
Bulgaria 14333 495 35.7 1.6
Norway 9850 261 12.0 0.1
Finland 7720 333 5.0 0.1
Luxembourg 7439 123 121.2 1.5
Greece 6858 226 21.2 0.2
Croatia 6420 165 29.3 0.5
Hungary 4877 607 3.6 0.1
Slovakia 2855 31 9.5 0.0
Slovenia 2401 124 11.1 0.3
Lithuania 2386 81 10.5 0.0
Estonia 2184 63 8.5 0.0
Iceland 1999 10 29.7 0.0
Cyprus 1332 20 23.7 0.1
Latvia 1315 32 4.0 0.0
Malta 1247 9 98.7 0.0
Liechtenstein 93 1 10.4 0.0
Total 1914629 179582 0.0 0.0

(On 10 August 2020, the United Kingdom reported less cumulative deaths due to revisions in historical data.)

HunterST_BFC
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Re: Quarantine

Post by HunterST_BFC » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:43 am

bfcmik wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:27 am
...less cumulative deaths due to revisions in historical data.)
:roll: :roll: :roll:

Are your actually sentient?
You probably believe that even less tests = even lower cases :roll: :roll: :roll:

Wellsy1882
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Wellsy1882 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:45 am

Now greece
Now turkey
Now croatia

The media pick a different country on a daily basis desperate to ruin holiday plans for brits to encourage staying at home and spending here

Its a joke now

martin_p
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Re: Quarantine

Post by martin_p » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:27 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:53 am
In February.March, infection rates were rising fast, as were death rates and illness rates. It may be that infection rates are rising now, though I wouldn't trust the government's in house statisticians, but it is certain that illness rates and death rates are falling fast. Hospital admissions with coronavirus are dropping fast, that the number of people in intensive care with coronavirus is dropping fast, and that the number of people admitted to hospital who are expected to recover is increasing fast. We also know that the number of people dying of this disease is significantly less than the 1%-3% that it is believed to have been at the start.

So is banning travelling from other countries that also have very low levels of coronavirus, a suitable control? If lack of suitable controls is a danger, then let's have suitable controls. I don't see how restricting travel between regions with broadly similar levels of infection is really restricting anything.

Incidentally, between June 19 and July 31, 2,992 people have died with coronavirus. 6,626 died with flu and/or pneumonia. Coronavirus, at present, is not a major national threat and whatever actions the government is taking should take that into account. I do not believe they are properly weighing up the misery caused by lockdown with the misery caused by coronavirus.
But why don’t you get that it ‘at present, is not a major national threat’ because of the measures we’ve taken and continue to take? Infection rates were rising fast back in February/March because the extent of the guidance was wash your hands and don’t shake hands with people (although the extent of how seriously the government were taking it was demonstrated by the PM admitting he was still shaking hands with people).

Unless the virus has mutated into something less deadly, and of yet there’s no scientific proof of that, the we’re stuck with what we’ve got until there’s a vaccine.

nil_desperandum
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Re: Quarantine

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:14 am

HunterST_BFC wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:43 am

You probably believe that even less tests = even lower cases :roll: :roll: :roll:
I doubt that anyone believes that, but it's a statistical inevitability that if you test the entire population you will DETECT more cases than if you only test 1%.
Initially - when at its peak, we were actually testing very few people in statistical terms, but now in places like Pendle and Blackburn everyone is being encouraged to book in for a test, and some "vulnerable" communities / areas in particular are being targeted for testing. This is inevitably revealing people to have the virus who are asymptomatic, so the rate of detections is increasing.
Of course we should continue to increase testing as much as we can, but this is inevitably going to see new cases detected, and the "r" rate rising.
What we really need is some kind of algorithm that makes a correlation between the number of tests and the number of detections.
5 cases in 1000 tests needs comparing to say 10 cases in 10,000 tests.

Grumps
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Re: Quarantine

Post by Grumps » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:24 am

The amount of infection in the community will be the same, roughly, all over the country. But towns and cities where there are no testing stations are low down in the table. Nobody is going to hospital with symptoms, so not being tested there either.
Take 3 testing stations to a town with none, and watch their reported infections rise.
The towns who are being proactive and testing, shouldn't be forced in lockdown just based on testing results, if hospital admissions, illness rates and deaths remain low, as in Blackburn the lockdown should be removed.

nil_desperandum
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Re: Quarantine

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:56 am

Grumps wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:24 am
The amount of infection in the community will be the same, roughly, all over the country. But towns and cities where there are no testing stations are low down in the table. Nobody is going to hospital with symptoms, so not being tested there either.
Take 3 testing stations to a town with none, and watch their reported infections rise.
The towns who are being proactive and testing, shouldn't be forced in lockdown just based on testing results, if hospital admissions, illness rates and deaths remain low, as in Blackburn the lockdown should be removed.
That's pretty much what I was saying but looked at from a different angle and expressed in a different way.
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bfcmik
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Re: Quarantine

Post by bfcmik » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:22 pm

HunterST_BFC wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:43 am
:roll: :roll: :roll:

Are your actually sentient?
You probably believe that even less tests = even lower cases :roll: :roll: :roll:
Not at all. Though more more testing does mean more positive tests will be reported. Not cases but positive tests. Less testing does = fewer positive tests!
To be honest that sentence about changing the cumulative death count was taken directly from the ECDC page. Though what the cumulative death count changing has to do with less testing = more cases I haven't a clue. You, though, obviously seem to believe that someone who dies today but had asymptomatic Covid19 back in March or April still died of Covid19 regardless of what happened to them since they recovered.

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