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Magic Numbers 2020/2021
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
More chance of West Brom catching us haha
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I'd be a lot happier after a scrappy 1-0 over Newcastle tomorrow !!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
With 2 tough away games to come for Fulham hopefully they won't be able to catch us by the time we play them.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Excellent.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Could someone explain to me how this magic number chart works?
Thanks in advance.
Thanks in advance.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
The short explanation is that each club's maximum possible points minus Burnley's current points (I.e. minimum possible points) determines each club's magic number.exilecanada wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:29 pmCould someone explain to me how this magic number chart works?
Thanks in advance.
So, Sheff Utd max points 33, less BFC 36 = -3.
West Brom and Fulham, respectively have max 41 and 43 points, less BFC 36 = 5 and 7, respectively.
When 3 teams have negative magic numbers it is mathematically impossible for Burnley to be relegated.
Goal difference is not taken into account.
Similarly games between any 2 teams are not taken into account. The magic number calculation assumes both teams can get 3 points even when their remaining fixtures include games against each other.
UTC
EDIT: I'm not getting the arithmetic quite right. Fulham can only get, max 42 points and this is only 6 higher than BFC's current 36 points. Maybe there's an extra 1 in the calc that assumes BFC always has worse goal difference? Or, maybe I just reading something wrongly !
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Yes, I based it on being mathematically certain to stay up so goal difference is viewed as something that can always be caught (however unlikely that may be) so there's a plus 1 on the calculation.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 pm
EDIT: I'm not getting the arithmetic quite right. Fulham can only get, max 42 points and this is only 6 higher than BFC's current 36 points. Maybe there's an extra 1 in the calc that assumes BFC always has worse goal difference? Or, maybe I just reading something wrongly !
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Thanks, aggi. I'm learning that the table is also connected to "live" in play scores. So, WBA magic number changed from before they kicked off, then went 0-1 down, then equalised and have now gone ahead. 2-1 up as I post.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
With WBA only drawing at Villa, if they fail to win two of their last five games, they can't catch us even if we lose all ours.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I didn't know that either. I think it's pulled from the Guardian league table, although I can't remember how often I scrape it.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:27 pmThanks, aggi. I'm learning that the table is also connected to "live" in play scores. So, WBA magic number changed from before they kicked off, then went 0-1 down, then equalised and have now gone ahead. 2-1 up as I post.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Fulham 4, WBA 3 - remember all magic numbers are +1 to account for goal difference.
Arsenal v WBA Sunday 9th.
Fulham v Burnley Monday 10th.
UTC
Arsenal v WBA Sunday 9th.
Fulham v Burnley Monday 10th.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
So a win against Fulham means we are mathematically safe.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
A draw against Fulham would mean they'd have to win all three of Southampton and Manchester Utd ( A ) and Newcastle ( H ), and hope we don't pick up any points from Leeds and Liverpool ( H ) and Sheffield United ( A ) ....
I like our odds !
I like our odds !
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
So do the bookies !
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
But what if Fulham beat us ? We just gave them a very slight glimmer of hope
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
If they were to go on a good run in all likelihood any goal difference in our favour would be wiped out as we would be losing by at least one goal per game for them to catch us.
So if we were to finish level with Fulham on points then they would be the team to stop up.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I will be surprised of Fulham mange to make it past 30
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Fulham would need to win all 4 remaining games.
They've won 5 all season and never, ever won 4 in a row in the Premier League.
They've won 5 all season and never, ever won 4 in a row in the Premier League.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Plus we have scored as many goals at Craven Cottage as Fulham have this year.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
it's actually not that uncommon for a team in deep mess with just a few games to go to win a few on the bounce and survive.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/interactives/f ... s-12413939
https://www.mirror.co.uk/interactives/f ... s-12413939
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
The big difference is that teams who were relegated in those years were only a few points clear of the relegation zone near the end of each season, not nine points above Fulham like we are.Zlatan wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:51 amit's actually not that uncommon for a team in deep mess with just a few games to go to win a few on the bounce and survive.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/interactives/f ... s-12413939
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Now these really are MAGIC numbers
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Oh yes.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Brilliant.
Thanks for the thread again, Vince. I love tracking the run-in like this.
Thanks for the thread again, Vince. I love tracking the run-in like this.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Lets not be too hasty, just because there are only 3 games left and we are 12 points clear doesn't mean we are safe
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Madness isn’t it. If the bottom 3 don’t reach 30 points, highly likely, we have been safe since our win at Everton on March 13th.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
To be fair, if we'd not added any points after March 13th Fulham would have had at least 3 more points this morning. Plus, we've still got Sheff Utd to play...huw.Y.WattfromWare wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 9:10 amMadness isn’t it. If the bottom 3 don’t reach 30 points, highly likely, we have been safe since our win at Everton on March 13th.
I thought we were, probably, safe when Ben Mee came back from his pre-season injury.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Are we doing a new one?
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I'd feel guilty setting up a new thread when it's not my spreadsheet.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I don't think I've ever started the thread before. Magic numbers works I'll update it later for the other stuff.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Time to start checking these out again.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Thanks to whoever is updating this (aggi, Vince, huw?)
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
That's good to see that we can still win the League.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I don't know if anyone started a 2021/22 one.
The spreadsheet pretty much updates automatically apart from footystats keep changing the location of their form tables.
It's noticeable how many teams in the bottom half of the table are on bad runs of form compared to their average form.
The spreadsheet pretty much updates automatically apart from footystats keep changing the location of their form tables.
It's noticeable how many teams in the bottom half of the table are on bad runs of form compared to their average form.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Can we change the thread title, as the magic numbers is our good luck charm?
Also worth noting we are only 1 point behind the baseline tracker (outside the big 6 clubs)
Also worth noting we are only 1 point behind the baseline tracker (outside the big 6 clubs)
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