Magic Numbers 2020/2021

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:15 pm

Nearly there.

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FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:34 am

More chance of West Brom catching us haha

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:27 am

I'd be a lot happier after a scrappy 1-0 over Newcastle tomorrow !!

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:02 am

With 2 tough away games to come for Fulham hopefully they won't be able to catch us by the time we play them.

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:03 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:48 pm

Excellent.

exilecanada · Post by **exilecanada** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:29 pm

Could someone explain to me how this magic number chart works?

Thanks in advance.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 pm

exilecanada wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:29 pm
Could someone explain to me how this magic number chart works?

Thanks in advance.

The short explanation is that each club's maximum possible points minus Burnley's current points (I.e. minimum possible points) determines each club's magic number.

So, Sheff Utd max points 33, less BFC 36 = -3.

West Brom and Fulham, respectively have max 41 and 43 points, less BFC 36 = 5 and 7, respectively.

When 3 teams have negative magic numbers it is mathematically impossible for Burnley to be relegated.

Goal difference is not taken into account.

Similarly games between any 2 teams are not taken into account. The magic number calculation assumes both teams can get 3 points even when their remaining fixtures include games against each other.

UTC

EDIT: I'm not getting the arithmetic quite right. Fulham can only get, max 42 points and this is only 6 higher than BFC's current 36 points. Maybe there's an extra 1 in the calc that assumes BFC always has worse goal difference? Or, maybe I just reading something wrongly !

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:35 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:18 pm

EDIT: I'm not getting the arithmetic quite right. Fulham can only get, max 42 points and this is only 6 higher than BFC's current 36 points. Maybe there's an extra 1 in the calc that assumes BFC always has worse goal difference? Or, maybe I just reading something wrongly !

Yes, I based it on being mathematically certain to stay up so goal difference is viewed as something that can always be caught (however unlikely that may be) so there's a plus 1 on the calculation.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:27 pm

aggi wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:35 pm
Yes, I based it on being mathematically certain to stay up so goal difference is viewed as something that can always be caught (however unlikely that may be) so there's a plus 1 on the calculation.

Thanks, aggi. I'm learning that the table is also connected to "live" in play scores. So, WBA magic number changed from before they kicked off, then went 0-1 down, then equalised and have now gone ahead. 2-1 up as I post.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:58 pm

With WBA only drawing at Villa, if they fail to win two of their last five games, they can't catch us even if we lose all ours.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:43 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:27 pm
Thanks, aggi. I'm learning that the table is also connected to "live" in play scores. So, WBA magic number changed from before they kicked off, then went 0-1 down, then equalised and have now gone ahead. 2-1 up as I post.

I didn't know that either. I think it's pulled from the Guardian league table, although I can't remember how often I scrape it.

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Mon May 03, 2021 6:50 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue May 04, 2021 10:26 am

Fulham 4, WBA 3 - remember all magic numbers are +1 to account for goal difference.

Arsenal v WBA Sunday 9th.
Fulham v Burnley Monday 10th.

UTC

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue May 04, 2021 10:42 am

So a win against Fulham means we are mathematically safe.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue May 04, 2021 10:55 am

A draw against Fulham would mean they'd have to win all three of Southampton and Manchester Utd ( A ) and Newcastle ( H ), and hope we don't pick up any points from Leeds and Liverpool ( H ) and Sheffield United ( A ) ....

I like our odds !

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue May 04, 2021 1:47 pm

So do the bookies !

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Tue May 04, 2021 4:34 pm

But what if Fulham beat us ? We just gave them a very slight glimmer of hope

Grumps · Post by **Grumps** » Tue May 04, 2021 4:39 pm

FCBurnley wrote: ↑
Tue May 04, 2021 4:34 pm
But what if Fulham beat us ? We just gave them a very slight glimmer of hope

They'd still need 7 pts from 3 games

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Tue May 04, 2021 5:14 pm

Grumps wrote: ↑
Tue May 04, 2021 4:39 pm
They'd still need 7 pts from 3 games

And one of those games is Man U away which is the only reason I'm getting any sleep whatsoever right now!!!

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue May 04, 2021 6:14 pm

Grumps wrote: ↑
Tue May 04, 2021 4:39 pm
They'd still need 7 pts from 3 games

If they were to go on a good run in all likelihood any goal difference in our favour would be wiped out as we would be losing by at least one goal per game for them to catch us.

So if we were to finish level with Fulham on points then they would be the team to stop up.

BabylonClaret · Post by **BabylonClaret** » Tue May 04, 2021 6:58 pm

I will be surprised of Fulham mange to make it past 30

chipbutty · Post by **chipbutty** » Tue May 04, 2021 11:25 pm

Fulham would need to win all 4 remaining games.

They've won 5 all season and never, ever won 4 in a row in the Premier League.

Grimsdale · Post by **Grimsdale** » Tue May 04, 2021 11:43 pm

Plus we have scored as many goals at Craven Cottage as Fulham have this year.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed May 05, 2021 8:23 am

chipbutty wrote: ↑
Tue May 04, 2021 11:25 pm
Fulham would need to win all 4 remaining games. They've won 5 all season and never, ever won 4 in a row in the Premier League.

They've picked up one point in the last 18 available ....

Zlatan · Post by **Zlatan** » Wed May 05, 2021 9:51 am

it's actually not that uncommon for a team in deep mess with just a few games to go to win a few on the bounce and survive.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/interactives/f ... s-12413939

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Wed May 05, 2021 10:31 am

Zlatan wrote: ↑
Wed May 05, 2021 9:51 am
it's actually not that uncommon for a team in deep mess with just a few games to go to win a few on the bounce and survive.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/interactives/f ... s-12413939

The big difference is that teams who were relegated in those years were only a few points clear of the relegation zone near the end of each season, not nine points above Fulham like we are.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Tue May 11, 2021 1:18 am

Now these really are MAGIC numbers

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Tue May 11, 2021 7:35 am

Oh yes.

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evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue May 11, 2021 9:01 am

Brilliant.

Thanks for the thread again, Vince. I love tracking the run-in like this.

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Tue May 11, 2021 9:07 am

Lets not be too hasty, just because there are only 3 games left and we are 12 points clear doesn't mean we are safe

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Tue May 11, 2021 9:10 am

Madness isn’t it. If the bottom 3 don’t reach 30 points, highly likely, we have been safe since our win at Everton on March 13th.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue May 11, 2021 9:29 am

huw.Y.WattfromWare wrote: ↑
Tue May 11, 2021 9:10 am
Madness isn’t it. If the bottom 3 don’t reach 30 points, highly likely, we have been safe since our win at Everton on March 13th.

To be fair, if we'd not added any points after March 13th Fulham would have had at least 3 more points this morning. Plus, we've still got Sheff Utd to play...

I thought we were, probably, safe when Ben Mee came back from his pre-season injury.

UTC

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:50 am

Are we doing a new one?

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:37 am

Spijed wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:50 am
Are we doing a new one?

The same link carries on every season …..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Aug 15, 2021 10:42 am

I'd feel guilty setting up a new thread when it's not my spreadsheet.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:04 pm

I don't think I've ever started the thread before. Magic numbers works I'll update it later for the other stuff.

minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:58 am

Time to start checking these out again.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:58 am

It says 20/21 but it looks up to date.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:12 am

Thanks to whoever is updating this (aggi, Vince, huw?)

CnBtruntru · Post by **CnBtruntru** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:37 am

That's good to see that we can still win the League.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:37 am

I don't know if anyone started a 2021/22 one.

The spreadsheet pretty much updates automatically apart from footystats keep changing the location of their form tables.

It's noticeable how many teams in the bottom half of the table are on bad runs of form compared to their average form.

Ric_C · Post by **Ric_C** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:58 am

Can we change the thread title, as the magic numbers is our good luck charm?

Also worth noting we are only 1 point behind the baseline tracker (outside the big 6 clubs)

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Thu Feb 24, 2022 2:10 pm

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=60471#p1755492