Magic Numbers 2020/2021
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Magic Numbers 2020/2021
It’s that time again.
So please can aggi do one of them spreadsheets or will the one from last season still work?
UTC
So please can aggi do one of them spreadsheets or will the one from last season still work?
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
I'll have a look how last season's is shaping up and what I need to do to it to bring it up to date.
EDIT: Here's the link for this season:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Obviously stuff based n form tables, next fixtures, etc is a bit meaningless at the moment.
EDIT: Here's the link for this season:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Obviously stuff based n form tables, next fixtures, etc is a bit meaningless at the moment.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Wondered what had happened to Vince and aggi.....glad to see they're back on the case with this.
I thought about this yesterday evening after the City/WBA result. Consoled myself with the fact that WBA magic number dropped by 2 as a result of that match, so, all things considered, disappointing result but still means we're a little nearer to safety....
I thought about this yesterday evening after the City/WBA result. Consoled myself with the fact that WBA magic number dropped by 2 as a result of that match, so, all things considered, disappointing result but still means we're a little nearer to safety....
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Bump !!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Beating Fulham would put 3 sides in the 50s. Excellent for this stage of the season,
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Thanks again for doing this aggi, huw and Vince.
The striking thing for me is that on the extrapolated points total whichever way you look at it, in theory as few as 30 points might be needed to stay up. Now, I totally understand that these extrapolations are just that i.e. theoretical based on previous performance, but I think it suggests that the number of points needed to stay up this season, in general, is likely to be lower.
Personally, I think 36 points will be enough and maybe even as low as 34 might see us safe.
The striking thing for me is that on the extrapolated points total whichever way you look at it, in theory as few as 30 points might be needed to stay up. Now, I totally understand that these extrapolations are just that i.e. theoretical based on previous performance, but I think it suggests that the number of points needed to stay up this season, in general, is likely to be lower.
Personally, I think 36 points will be enough and maybe even as low as 34 might see us safe.
Last edited by Goddy on Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
It's weird, every year at around this point that extrapolated points to stay up figure is really low. Last season I think it was 25 at about this point and it's normally about 28-30. Not sure why form seems to pick up in the second half of the season.Goddy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:16 pmThanks again for doing this aggi, hum and Vince.
The striking thing for me is that on the extrapolated points total whichever way you look at it, in theory as few as 30 points might be needed to stay up. Now, I totally understand that these extrapolations are just that i.e. theoretical based on previous performance, but I think it suggests that the number of points needed to stay up this season, in general, is likely to be lower.
Personally, I think 36 points will be enough and maybe even as low as 34 might see us safe.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
….and 35 points was enough to stay up last season.
I reckon upturn in performance is that teams in mid-table mediocrity simply drop their performance levels (to coin a Dyche-ism) by a touch which is enough to help those at the bottom fighting for their lives pick up a few extra points
I reckon upturn in performance is that teams in mid-table mediocrity simply drop their performance levels (to coin a Dyche-ism) by a touch which is enough to help those at the bottom fighting for their lives pick up a few extra points
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Bump - have the clever chaps who do all this, updated the spreadsheet?
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
It updates automatically, I'm far too lazy to do it manually.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Great stats. Thanks
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Here’s a link to last years thread. Interesting to look at the numbers from matchday 24
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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=150#p1370828
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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=150#p1370828
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Wow. 6 teams under 40 and all having to take points from each other. That makes such a difference.Vince Fontaine wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:19 pmHere’s a link to last years thread. Interesting to look at the numbers from matchday 24
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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=150#p1370828
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Another round of games and West Brom's title challenge will be over.
With Fulham and WBA picking up good results it's perhaps natural to be looking down the table but if you look at the last 10 games Burnley are 7th in the form table.
With Fulham and WBA picking up good results it's perhaps natural to be looking down the table but if you look at the last 10 games Burnley are 7th in the form table.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
A point a game for us and Fulham will need 22 from 14 games
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Even with the draw they dropped by 3. This weekend could have some sway to the numbers.
Saturday
Burnley v WBA
Fulham v Sheff Utd
Monday
BHA v CP.
With Saints at home to Chelsea a win for us could see us go above CP & Saints.
Saturday
Burnley v WBA
Fulham v Sheff Utd
Monday
BHA v CP.
With Saints at home to Chelsea a win for us could see us go above CP & Saints.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Again, another great week for the Clarets with the magic numbers being chipped away. It won't be long before WBA and Sheff Utd are as good as out of it.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Looks like one from five.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Still looking very good indeed.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Everyone worries about Fulham catching us and sending us down. Well, Fulham's magic number has been dropping at an average of 3.2 points per game. It only needs to drop by 2.6 points per game for the remainder of the season and we'll be OK. That's more than half a point per game. It would take, pretty much, a collapse in our form combined with a sustained upturn in Fulham's form for things to change. Not impossible but very unlikely.
Remember, as soon as Fulham don't win, their magic number drops (by at least 2 - so a drop of 2.6 (or more) per game is totally likely to happen given what's gone before in the season)
Remember, as soon as Fulham don't win, their magic number drops (by at least 2 - so a drop of 2.6 (or more) per game is totally likely to happen given what's gone before in the season)
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
They may well win one or two while we get beat in the short term but over the next ten or so games, it won't be anywhere near enough for them.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110
Slide across to columns J & K that shows average position of opponents for remainder of season and next 4 games. We are in a better position than all the teams below us regarding these stats.
Slide across to columns J & K that shows average position of opponents for remainder of season and next 4 games. We are in a better position than all the teams below us regarding these stats.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Is the Fulham points total correct ? It is showing 24 ?
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Ok got it. Thanks. This is the best thing on Clarets Mad
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
So Fulham Magic number down to 28 with 11 to play.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
We're getting there...
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Fulham's next seven.....
Liverpool away
Man City home
Leeds home
Villa away
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Chelsea away
Sheesh...
Liverpool away
Man City home
Leeds home
Villa away
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Chelsea away
Sheesh...
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
They will do extremely well to average a point a game from that lotevensteadiereddie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:18 pmFulham's next seven.....
Liverpool away
Man City home
Leeds home
Villa away
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Chelsea away
Sheesh...
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Newcastle MN down to 29 and if we beat them it will drop by 6 and by 3 if we draw
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Not looking good for the bottom 3 now. Newcastle also in the mix.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Looking very, very good.
Sheff Utd - 9
WBA - 13
Fulham - 18
For those still not initiated, each game any of these three draw, they'll lose two points off their total. If they lose, it's three.
Any points we get will also come off these totals.
Even if Fulham, for example, win 4 of their last eight, draw 2 and lose 2 , we'd only need 9 points from our remaining games to send them down.
Sheff Utd - 9
WBA - 13
Fulham - 18
For those still not initiated, each game any of these three draw, they'll lose two points off their total. If they lose, it's three.
Any points we get will also come off these totals.
Even if Fulham, for example, win 4 of their last eight, draw 2 and lose 2 , we'd only need 9 points from our remaining games to send them down.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Seems hard to believe that, technically, Sheff utd can still catch us.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Magic numbers are great. Only down side to our run in us if we lose to Newcastle and Fulham. The good news is they play each other so somebody or both will drop points. Also a draw against Newcastle or Fulham knocks their magic points down by 3 and obviously by 6 if we win. So well and truly in our own hands
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Sheff Utd 7, WBA 13 and Fulham 18. For each of their final eight games, they'll drop two or three of those points if they draw or lose.
Any points we gain merely compound their difficulties.
Any points we gain merely compound their difficulties.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Somewhat irritating that WBA got 3 totally unexpected points yesterday or they'd have been on the final countdown. Having said that it's really up to us and what we do.
Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
So a combination of 5 wins by us or losses for Fulham and it’s game over. Even draws will seriously hurt Fulham now
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Fulham simply have to start winning games - at the moment, we don't.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2020/2021
Interstellar that West Brom MN is now only 2 less than Fulhams