Magic Numbers 2020/2021

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:01 pm

It’s that time again.

So please can aggi do one of them spreadsheets or will the one from last season still work?

UTC

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:18 pm

Here’s the link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

UTC

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:55 am

I'll have a look how last season's is shaping up and what I need to do to it to bring it up to date.

EDIT: Here's the link for this season:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Obviously stuff based n form tables, next fixtures, etc is a bit meaningless at the moment.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:01 pm

Bump

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:23 am

Wondered what had happened to Vince and aggi.....glad to see they're back on the case with this.

I thought about this yesterday evening after the City/WBA result. Consoled myself with the fact that WBA magic number dropped by 2 as a result of that match, so, all things considered, disappointing result but still means we're a little nearer to safety....

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:00 pm

Bump !!

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:15 pm

Beating Fulham would put 3 sides in the 50s. Excellent for this stage of the season,

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:52 pm

Bump.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:16 pm

Thanks again for doing this aggi, huw and Vince.

The striking thing for me is that on the extrapolated points total whichever way you look at it, in theory as few as 30 points might be needed to stay up. Now, I totally understand that these extrapolations are just that i.e. theoretical based on previous performance, but I think it suggests that the number of points needed to stay up this season, in general, is likely to be lower.

Personally, I think 36 points will be enough and maybe even as low as 34 might see us safe.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:28 pm

Goddy wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:16 pm
Thanks again for doing this aggi, hum and Vince.

The striking thing for me is that on the extrapolated points total whichever way you look at it, in theory as few as 30 points might be needed to stay up. Now, I totally understand that these extrapolations are just that i.e. theoretical based on previous performance, but I think it suggests that the number of points needed to stay up this season, in general, is likely to be lower.

Personally, I think 36 points will be enough and maybe even as low as 34 might see us safe.

It's weird, every year at around this point that extrapolated points to stay up figure is really low. Last season I think it was 25 at about this point and it's normally about 28-30. Not sure why form seems to pick up in the second half of the season.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:35 pm

….and 35 points was enough to stay up last season.

I reckon upturn in performance is that teams in mid-table mediocrity simply drop their performance levels (to coin a Dyche-ism) by a touch which is enough to help those at the bottom fighting for their lives pick up a few extra points

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:03 am

Bump - have the clever chaps who do all this, updated the spreadsheet?

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:20 am

It updates automatically, I'm far too lazy to do it manually.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:34 am

aggi wrote: ↑
Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:20 am
It updates automatically, I'm far too lazy to do it manually.

Excellent - thanks for that, aggi

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:50 pm

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:17 pm

Great stats. Thanks

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:46 pm

Link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

3 under 40 now.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:19 pm

Here’s a link to last years thread. Interesting to look at the numbers from matchday 24

UTC

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=150#p1370828

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:10 pm

Vince Fontaine wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:19 pm
Here’s a link to last years thread. Interesting to look at the numbers from matchday 24
UTC
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=150#p1370828

Wow. 6 teams under 40 and all having to take points from each other. That makes such a difference.

Zlatan · Post by **Zlatan** » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:08 pm

Link direct to match day 24

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=41134&start=50#p1203333

dibraidio · Post by **dibraidio** » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:48 pm

Another round of games and West Brom's title challenge will be over.

With Fulham and WBA picking up good results it's perhaps natural to be looking down the table but if you look at the last 10 games Burnley are 7th in the form table.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:02 pm

A point a game for us and Fulham will need 22 from 14 games

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:36 pm

Even with the draw they dropped by 3. This weekend could have some sway to the numbers.
Saturday
Burnley v WBA
Fulham v Sheff Utd
Monday
BHA v CP.
With Saints at home to Chelsea a win for us could see us go above CP & Saints.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:43 am

Again, another great week for the Clarets with the magic numbers being chipped away. It won't be long before WBA and Sheff Utd are as good as out of it.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:17 am

Looks like one from five.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:10 am

Still looking very good indeed.

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:54 am

Everyone worries about Fulham catching us and sending us down. Well, Fulham's magic number has been dropping at an average of 3.2 points per game. It only needs to drop by 2.6 points per game for the remainder of the season and we'll be OK. That's more than half a point per game. It would take, pretty much, a collapse in our form combined with a sustained upturn in Fulham's form for things to change. Not impossible but very unlikely.

Remember, as soon as Fulham don't win, their magic number drops (by at least 2 - so a drop of 2.6 (or more) per game is totally likely to happen given what's gone before in the season)

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:21 pm

They may well win one or two while we get beat in the short term but over the next ten or so games, it won't be anywhere near enough for them.

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:41 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Slide across to columns J & K that shows average position of opponents for remainder of season and next 4 games. We are in a better position than all the teams below us regarding these stats.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:59 pm

Is the Fulham points total correct ? It is showing 24 ?

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:02 pm

FCBurnley wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:59 pm
Is the Fulham points total correct ? It is showing 24 ?

It’s live in game. You must have checked whilst it was 0-0. Now back to 23 PL points.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:04 pm

Ok got it. Thanks. This is the best thing on Clarets Mad

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:07 pm

So Fulham Magic number down to 28 with 11 to play.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:08 pm

We're getting there...

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:10 pm

FCBurnley wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:04 pm
Ok got it. Thanks. This is the best thing on Clarets Mad

I was wrong. Double checked myself and all their other figures are correct but it is still showing 24.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:18 pm

Fulham's next seven.....

Liverpool away
Man City home
Leeds home
Villa away
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Chelsea away

Sheesh...

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:25 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:18 pm
Fulham's next seven.....

Liverpool away
Man City home
Leeds home
Villa away
Wolves home
Arsenal away
Chelsea away

Sheesh...

They will do extremely well to average a point a game from that lot

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:14 am

Newcastle MN down to 29 and if we beat them it will drop by 6 and by 3 if we draw

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:21 pm

Not looking good for the bottom 3 now. Newcastle also in the mix.

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:46 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:03 pm

Looking very, very good.
Sheff Utd - 9
WBA - 13
Fulham - 18

For those still not initiated, each game any of these three draw, they'll lose two points off their total. If they lose, it's three.
Any points we get will also come off these totals.
Even if Fulham, for example, win 4 of their last eight, draw 2 and lose 2 , we'd only need 9 points from our remaining games to send them down.

dougcollins · Post by **dougcollins** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:02 pm

Seems hard to believe that, technically, Sheff utd can still catch us.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:53 pm

Magic numbers are great. Only down side to our run in us if we lose to Newcastle and Fulham. The good news is they play each other so somebody or both will drop points. Also a draw against Newcastle or Fulham knocks their magic points down by 3 and obviously by 6 if we win. So well and truly in our own hands

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:38 am

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:00 am

Sheff Utd 7, WBA 13 and Fulham 18. For each of their final eight games, they'll drop two or three of those points if they draw or lose.
Any points we gain merely compound their difficulties.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:17 am

Somewhat irritating that WBA got 3 totally unexpected points yesterday or they'd have been on the final countdown. Having said that it's really up to us and what we do.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:57 pm

So a combination of 5 wins by us or losses for Fulham and it’s game over. Even draws will seriously hurt Fulham now

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:18 am

Fulham simply have to start winning games - at the moment, we don't.

huw.Y.WattfromWare · Post by **huw.Y.WattfromWare** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:12 pm

: F3636135-410C-4CEC-8993-C58AEF78889A.jpeg (80.06 KiB) Viewed 3867 times

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:43 pm

Interstellar that West Brom MN is now only 2 less than Fulhams