Three Tier Lockdown

[Murger]

Time to stop playing games. Total NATIONAL lockdown for 4-6 weeks might give us a chance of slowing the virus (and deaths) down. We (Lancashire) supported London when they were in the shite and now they must lock down to support us. Schools/colleges/universities need to be shut down immediately before it's too late.

And what the hell will people have to go back too? All the jobs will be gone.

[bfcjg]

The economic consequences of total lockdowns plus the other health related issues such as depression heart attacks etc means it is a very difficult call.

[boatshed bill]

The economic consequences of total lockdowns plus the other health related issues such as depression heart attacks etc means it is a very difficult call.

OK., but can you categorically state that having no futuire lockdown would result in improvements in those specific areas?

[Burnley1989]

I never know who’s being serious anymore on this thread and who’s fishing

[CombatClaret]

Covid does not kill but obesity does
I suggest all you fat over weight clarets out their hit weight watchers before it is to late

Dropped 6 stone in 6 months, feeling very smug

[CombatClaret]

The economy would still suffer massively even If you opened everything up and removed all restrictions tomorrow.
Because there's enough smart and/or scared people who will not frequent non-essential businesses while there's a pandemic raging.

The cinema's were allowed to open, they were dead. The only place which saw business really pick up and gets the most discussion is the pubs and that's probably down to wide spread alcohol dependence.

[Swizzlestick]

Dropped 6 stone in 6 months, feeling very smug

Blimey, fair play.

[Lowbankclaret]

Four people sat round a table having a drink vs four people sat round a table having a meal

No difference in infection risk.

Northern towns will be locked down for several months with devastating results. Town centres totally deserted. We are teetering on the edge of total social disaster.

If only that was how it was, but it’s not is it.

I have been to two restaurants in the last month, Nutters near Norden. Face masks compulsory except at the table, temperature checks before your allowed in as well as hand sanitizer before your allowed in.

Bertram’s at Crow wood, not as strict but hand sanitizer on entry and majority wearing masks away from the table.

Pubs I have walked past, no one wearing masks, mingling as they always used to in groups.

So my observation of what’s going on is pubs in the main are not as safe as restaurants.

[conyoviejo]

Dropped 6 stone in 6 months, feeling very smug

So you are down to 20 st now.

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On a serious note,well done Combat. Can only do you good,I've lost two stone ,mainly due to cycling ,walking and a diet.

[CombatClaret]

So you are down to 20 st now.
On a serious note,well done Combat. Can only do you good,I've lost two stone ,mainly due to cycling ,walking and a diet.

Well done to you sir!
Likewise: cycling and diet. It was mostly the diet I guess, because I was cycling regularly before probably 80miles a week and was fit enough for the occasional 60+mile ride. But as soon I started calorie controlling it fell off. BMI from 35 to 21

[FactualFrank]

Well done!
Likewise, cycling and diet. It was mostly the diet I guess, because I was cycling regularly before probably 100miles a week and was fit enough for the occasional 60+mile ride. But as soon I started calorie controlling it fell off.

I always find eating better beats exercise in shifting pounds. The effort you need to make to burn the same number of calories as something as simple as a biscuit, is crazy.

[Top Claret]

All well and good losing the pounds, but the hard bit is to have the self discipline to keep it off

[CombatClaret]

Covid does not kill but obesity does
I suggest all you fat over weight clarets out their hit weight watchers before it is to late

A couple of us pop up with weight loss examples.

All well and good losing the pounds, but the hard bit is to have the self discipline to keep it off

You're Mr Positive aren't you

[Vintage Claret]

Meanwhile, while the good folk of Lancashire resign to the fact they can't visit their families, hug their grandkids or even go for a pint in a pub thousands of anti lockdown 'protesters' * gather in London..


* aka selfish twohats

[Grumps]

Meanwhile, while the good folk of Lancashire resign to the fact they can't visit their families, hug their grandkids or even go for a pint in a pub thousands of anti lockdown 'protesters' * gather in London..


* aka selfish twohats

You can visit family, though.... In a public place.

[FactualFrank]

You can visit family, though.... In a public place.

To be honest, I'm not even sure of the rules, with regards to where I can see friends who live in and outside Leeds. It's a bit bonkers.

And to make it even more crazy, it will no doubt be changed again next week.

[Grumps]

To be honest, I'm not even sure of the rules. It's a bit bonkers.

And to make it even more crazy, it will no doubt be changed again next week.

You're goosed if your family is bigger than 6 though.
Nothing more sure that it will change... Won't work any better though.

[Clarets4me]

You can visit family, though.... In a public place.

Mrs Clarets4me and I were tested on the 5th October, together with the two gents with learning disabilities who we care for, and who share our home. The results came back on the 7th, all negative ... We are part of " support bubbles " for my parents, both 84 ( Dad has vascular dementia ), my Mother-in-Law, 81, crippled with Arthritis, and a recently widowed friend, who's GP suggested she would need the support ..

We ignore retail premises that have a " lassez-faire " attitude to masks and sanitisers, although I do find it strange that I would ordinarily not be able to take my mother to Tesco's, in my car where I know who's been in it, but she could ring a Taxi, which may have transported any number of people, to take her shopping ...

[FactualFrank]

You're goosed if your family is bigger than 6 though.
Nothing more sure that it will change... Won't work any better though.

Looking at it - not even sure if my family is bigger than 6

Way too many different scenarios.

We need a virtual Christmas - might even opt for that one.

[TheFamilyCat]

You're goosed if your family is bigger than 6 though.
Nothing more sure that it will change... Won't work any better though.

Yes, crazy that six people from different households can meet but me, my brother, our wives and three kids can't.

[FactualFrank]

Yes, crazy that six people from different households can meet but me, my brother, our wives and three kids can't.

We all know that people will think, "f**k it" - and have lots of people around over Christmas.

[Grumps]

Yes, crazy that six people from different households can meet but me, my brother, our wives and three kids can't.

Leave one of the wives at home and you're ok.

[Grumps]

We all know that people will think, "f**k it" - and have lots of people around over Christmas.

Iam sure the government realise that, and no doubt something will be put in place to facilitate some kind of family meetings.

[Vintage Claret]

You can visit family, though.... In a public place.

Yes ok you're factually correct, I can also 'see' family on Zoom or Wattsapp but it's not really the point I was going for.

'Seeing' your family and grandchild from 2 metres away in the middle of a wet and windy park in the middle of October isn't quite the same as having your grandchild for a sleepover, reading them a bedtime story and giving them a hug goodnight.

Meanwhile, thousands of people are gathering without social distancing or masks apparently with impunity whilst thousands of others follow 'the rules'

[CombatClaret]

Key factors in spread:
Reduced distancing, prolonged exposure & poor airflow.

Homes and people in them tick all three.

The 5 other people you meet in the park where airflow is excellent and distancing is possible.
The 5 other people you meet at a restaurant you will likely spend a reduced amount of time together 2-3 hours max and airflow will be better.

At home you would be close, unmasked, relaxed, not cleaning surfaces regularly, airflow is poor and might spend an entire day like that together.
Plus mates and family coming over to visit does nothing for the economy.

So not hard to see why people visiting homes is the first thing to be banned.

[boatshed bill]

There's loads of people arguing against these measures,
but how about going along with them and giving it a chance?

[Grumps]

There's loads of people arguing against these measures,
but how about going along with them and giving it a chance?

We've been going along with it here for months, and guess what, the numbers keep rising, so how long do we give it a chance for?

[boatshed bill]

We've been going along with it here for months, and guess what, the numbers keep rising, so how long do we give it a chance for?

My guess is that not enough people are adhering to the guidelines.

[vinrogue]

There is no cure yet.
The world does not have a vaccine.
Only lock down for ever until the above is solved will keep you reasonably safe until hunger and poverty hit.
Anything else is a fudge and we can all have a go at whatever fudge is installed upon us.
The critics win until a cure or vaccine is found.

[FactualFrank]

There is no cure yet.
The world does not have a vaccine.
Only lock down for ever until the above is solved will keep you reasonably safe until hunger and poverty hit.
Anything else is a fudge and we can all have a go at whatever fudge is installed upon us.
The critics win until a cure or vaccine is found.

I'd love to have a night out with you.

[martin_p]

I'd love to have a night out with you.

No, no, no! Tier 3!

[CombatClaret]

We've been going along with it here for months, and guess what, the numbers keep rising, so how long do we give it a chance for?

CDC has mortality rate at somewhere between 0.25 - 0.65%
165,000 - 430,000 dead
Dead If we do nothing, ICU likely overwhelmed so can't even provide treatment to save some who could be.

And if you think the economy will tank if we impose restrictions, how vibrant do you think the economy will be be if people know there in a totally uncontrolled virus outside which could kill or hand them lifelong side effects.

Short, planned lockdowns every school holiday to get the R down until vaccine is distributed. In between life can go on as close to normal as possible.

[FactualFrank]

No, no, no! Tier 3!

Oh bloody hell, you have to spoil everything.

[CombatClaret]

My guess is that not enough people are adhering to the guidelines.

The government's own scientific advisory body concluded it was the guidelines that were not good enough regardless of if people followed them.

[Grumps]

My guess is that not enough people are adhering to the guidelines.

You're right, but they are not going to start now

[CombatClaret]

You're right, but they are not going to start now

"I am not confident - and nor is anybody confident - that the Tier 3 proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case and nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it," - Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer

So the reason it's spreading is because people are not following the rules that scientists say are not good enough to stop this spreading?

[Grumps]

"I am not confident - and nor is anybody confident - that the Tier 3 proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case and nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it," - Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer

So the reason it's spreading is because people are not following the rules that scientists say are not good enough to stop this spreading?

Tier 3 is actually less strict than what we have had in place here for months and it hasn't worked, but I can now go and meet 5 others in a park.

[boatshed bill]

Tier 3 is actually less strict than what we have had in place here for months and it hasn't worked, but I can now go and meet 5 others in a park.

So stricter measures should be enforced?

[CombatClaret]

Tier 3 is actually less strict than what we have had in place here for months and it hasn't worked, but I can now go and meet 5 others in a park.

You're not making any sense, are you arguing for tighter restrictions like a circuit breaker lockdown?

Because the lock down we had previously categorically worked in what it was meant to do; get us down to a very low level of infection in the community.
The failure came after when we did not create an effective track & trace then unlocking too much at the same time so we could not see how each factor was effecting R.

[UnderSeige]

WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION doctor says lockdowns should not be main coronavirus defence. WHO doctor calls on world leaders to use other control methods.

Dr Nabarro made the statements in an interview with The Spectator (Andrew Neil).

"The only time we believe a lockdown in justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources; protect your health workers who are exhausted," Dr Nabarro said.

"But by and large, we'd rather not do it."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/ ... e/12753688

[boatshed bill]

WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION doctor says lockdowns should not be main coronavirus defence. WHO doctor calls on world leaders to use other control methods.

Dr Nabarro made the statements in an interview with The Spectator (Andrew Neil).


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/ ... e/12753688

How are things in New Zealand at present?

[CombatClaret]

WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION doctor says lockdowns should not be main coronavirus defence. WHO doctor calls on world leaders to use other control methods.

Dr Nabarro made the statements in an interview with The Spectator (Andrew Neil).


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/ ... e/12753688

Completely agree with this. Testing & tracing, masks, social distancing, making workplaces Covid safe and changing behavior are the key defenses until a vaccine can be developed.

BUT for these to work you need a low level of infection in the community, the above measures will help only keep to it there. At present it is too high for these to be effective and what's more it's and growing exponentially again so the only way we know how to get it down is with a lockdown. A short one to, quote your own material "reorganise, regroup, rebalance".

[CombatClaret]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-12/ ... e/12753688

He goes on to say what does work long term as an alternative to lockdowns.

""Public health services organised to offer locally-integrated support for interrupting transmission and suppressing clusters.
This means test-trace-isolate-protect services everywhere, with clearly justified performance metrics. It is important there is enough testing capacity to pick up where the virus is, to detect spikes and manage surges.." - Dr Nabarro

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... h-12104679

England's contact tracing system reaching lowest percentage of people since its launch
The news will raise fears that the system can no longer act as a brake on the outbreak.

[UnderSeige]

How are things in New Zealand at present?

Jacinda just got elected again with a huge majority.


In the meantime. Back in Blighty.
World Health Organisation issues cautionary advice on imposing ‘total lockdown’
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/12/world-he ... to=cbshare
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12916689/ ... ce-change/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/world- ... index.html

[Paul Waine]

Just seen this on BBC (and not seen it posted on here) - seems to be relevant to this thread.

Brother of Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson dies with Covid

The eldest brother of Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson has died in hospital with coronavirus.

The politician confirmed the news in a Tweet and thanked staff at Liverpool Hospital's intensive care unit.

He said his brother died at 22:45 BST on Friday.

Liverpool has since Wednesday been in tier three of the new lockdown system, which has the strictest rules, after a rise in coronavirus cases in the area.

He urged people to "follow the rules", which include the closure of pubs not serving meals, along with gyms, leisure centres, betting shops and casinos.

In the social media post, Mr Anderson wrote: "We want to thank the dedicated [hospital] staff risking their lives for us.

"Thank you all for your messages of love and support. Let's stick together and support each other and win this battle."

Liverpool has the highest number of cases in England, with 3,204 patients recorded on Tuesday, slightly more than the 3,191 cases registered a week before.

Earlier this week, Mr Anderson criticised crowds that gathered in the city just before the new rules came into effect, saying the images "shame our city" and "our health service is creaking".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-54584112

Stay safe, everyone.

[CombatClaret]

Jacinda just got elected again with a huge majority.

In the meantime. Back in Blighty.
World Health Organisation issues cautionary advice on imposing ‘total lockdown’

You've just reposted the same article you did before, only regurgiated by the Sun, Mail & Metro.

See my above two posts as to why a short lockdown is needed to do exactly what they suggest total lockdowns are for ("reorganise, regroup, rebalance") as infections are too high to make the alternative non-lockdown measures work and we're failing at those anyway.

[dsr]

CDC has mortality rate at somewhere between 0.25 - 0.65%
165,000 - 430,000 dead
Dead If we do nothing, ICU likely overwhelmed so can't even provide treatment to save some who could be.

And if you think the economy will tank if we impose restrictions, how vibrant do you think the economy will be be if people know there in a totally uncontrolled virus outside which could kill or hand them lifelong side effects.

Short, planned lockdowns every school holiday to get the R down until vaccine is distributed. In between life can go on as close to normal as possible.

You're assuming that nobody has natural immunity and that without lockdown, everyone in the country will get it?

And for that matter, are you assuming that there are no other uncontrolled viruses that can kill or cause lifelong side effects?

When is this vaccine going to be distributed?

[CombatClaret]

You're assuming that nobody has natural immunity and that without lockdown, everyone in the country will get it?
And for that matter, are you assuming that there are no other uncontrolled viruses that can kill or cause lifelong side effects?
When is this vaccine going to be distributed?

I'm assuming nothing which is how we should treat a new virus, not with hopeful optimism or with apathy.
That's the CDC's mortality number which will have come from real worl data. The real world which includes your potentially immune people. So if there are people who are immune they are already included in that mortality number.

The Covid19 is 'novel' or new fir which we have very few effective therapeutics or a vaccine. I'm unaware of any other major novel & deadly viruses that are in circulation.

Head of UK Vaccine taskforce says expects basic vaccines ready by early next year. Distribution much longer, whole of 2021 I imagine staggered over risk & age groups.

[Grumps]

You're not making any sense, are you arguing for tighter restrictions like a circuit breaker lockdown?

Because the lock down we had previously categorically worked in what it was meant to do; get us down to a very low level of infection in the community.
The failure came after when we did not create an effective track & trace then unlocking too much at the same time so we could not see how each factor was effecting R.

Iam saying the current restrictions won't work, iam not arguing for anything, just pointing out facts. Blackburn had a very effective testing and tracing scheme in place, that hasn't got the numbers down.
The vast majority of cases stem from university areas... I think 5 of the top ten wards in the country contain at least one university, it might be more, just that the names don't give a clue like some do.

[SingaporeClarets]

Should Tony Blair have quarantined on return from America, he did not get diplomatic exemption to continue his business even if he did do a COVID test